Hello Simon. I'm curious about your daily use of poll data. I worked in political environments for much of my career and the driving message was to ignore polls unless we knew who commissioned the poll, who wrote the questions, who paid for the poll, how many people were polled and by what means - phone (landline), mobile, email, texts. Poll data is just a snapshot in time and often winds up with the results mudding the landscape of reality.
We cannot ignore polls. They are a major part of how people understand politics now, a major part of the information space, and like all aspects of the info space we must engage in shaping it and not leave it to others. As I write, I am also trying to create an understanding of electoral data that is not centered on polling, but we cannot ignore polls.
I continue to be so grateful for this community and for Simon. After the 2016 election so many of us felt so alone and devastated. Now we know we are not alone and all of us are working overtime to save our democracy. So grateful and relieved to be in this together!
The "Don't Be A Mitch" campaign is back after a hugely successful 2022 cycle, raising $1.2 million for voter registration groups ahead of the midterm elections. This year, with a tough Senate map, we have no room for error. I put together a list of organizations that I think are best situated to ensure that the Senate stays in Democrats' hands. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dontbeamitch
Simon, Thank you for all of the analysis and leadership you provide. It is always helpful to have your data to share with people. On a related note, I’m sure many people read the NY Times piece this morning (linked below).
It posits that trump voters were better off financially during the first 3 years of his term and that is affecting their likely voting behavior. While you and the author may be looking at different measures, I wonder if you have any thoughts about how to address these voters. Thanks, as always, for your wise thinking.
Not sure what Simon will say, but view is that we need to focus much more on truly persuadable voters and worry much less about the MAGA/Structurally partisan block in the GOP that simply aren’t available to us. Many of them will go to their graves justifying their support of Trump because when you go all in for something that proves to be truly evil and malevolent, it’s often too painful to accept what you were complicit in....it’s just human nature. It’s clear that the economy has become deeply politicized in the Trump era, and there are a block of voters who need his pre-COVID economy to be the “best in history” so bad for their own personal psychology that no amount of improvement from Biden will ever be enough for them to accept or acknowledge it....it’s just become too “binary” for them, and it’s unacceptable for the “enemy” to have done something good.
So, that block of voters is certainly a potential danger to our society because they are so unmovable and clearly feel scared and isolated....but there are more of us outside of that block than inside it and we just have to focus our efforts on reaching those who are reachable and continue to deny the MAGA block every layer of power we can for as long as it takes for them to age out and or disengage, and until the GOP or a new Center-Right party can build a new Center-Right voting coalition that allows them to be both a responsible governing party when they win and a loyal opposition when they lose.
Not all trump voters are MAGA though, and I have heard many times that things were better off under trump; inflation can have a corrosive affect on people, and we know from history people will settle for a dictator if the price of bread goes down. Sometimes. We like to think we are different. We'll have that chance to show that we are. The Haley voters are more partial to Biden than trump. Well, Biden and Haley have two opposite visions for the country; one is pro-union, pro working class, pro-choice, pro public education and public services, pro Social Security and Medicare, and dedicated to improving access to health care. Haley is AGAINST all of that. And can't tell you what the Civil War was about. So do people really pay attention to those issues? The Rick Wilsons of the world will tell you no, not really. We'll see.
I stand by my comments.... I didn’t say all Trump voters are MAGA.... I said we worry too much about people who aren’t reachable which needlessly and counterproductively drains energy that could be used to target people who are. Of those who claim they were economically better off under Trump, some (small but meaningful) portion will be reachable and will soften in their resistance to Biden as they continue to feel the effects of our impressive post Covid recovery.....but because of the politicization of economics and the hyper negative partisanship of the MAGA base, there’s a good 42% or more of likely voters who aren’t going to acknowledge economic gains under Biden regardless of how impressive or beneficial they are, let alone risk giving him any credit for it. And in my view we should stop pulling our hair out worrying about them and just pay attention to the 55% that is truly persuadable.
Dobbs may change everything; I was listening to something about "Dobbs Dads" and "Red Dawns" who are solid R voters but have daughters and don't want the state telling them what to do. So they are reachable, but could they fall for Haley's attempts at soft-pedaling her real stance on abortion? I don't know. Or trump's attempts, as hollow as they ring, to also "soften" his stance? It is hard for me to think they will.
Agreed....but they are still what I would call “reachable”..... just think there’s a lot of freaking out over 40% of folks who will never be with us.....and that’s okay. The biggest landslides in our history have been 58 - 60%, and they were anomalous....my overarching point is that there are more than enough “gettable” votes to not worry about those which are not available
There is also a very real opportunity to grow the voter base.
Only a small fraction of young people actually register to vote as soon as they are able to do so. But the ones who do register, vote in similar proportions to other age cohorts. The Civics Center has some very good information about this on their wensite: www.thecivicscenter.org. They also have a useful map showing different states stances on pre-registration: https://www.thecivicscenter.org/map.
There are alot of states where young people can pre-register NOW and vote in November so long as their 18th birthday is before election day.
I volunteered for the NC voter protection hotline in 2020 and it was heartbreaking to tell someone that "no you cannot register on election day in NC and have your vote count". (We do have same day registration during early voting which ends the Saturday before the election).
Simon, as always, thank you for the shot of optimism. Out here in the very red Shenandoah Valley, it's like good, strong medicine. Early voting for the Virginia primary starts this week. Virginia has open primaries. I'm thinking it would make sense to vote for Haley, based on the notion that Biden will definitely win the Democratic primary. Do you think that's correct? Or does it matter for Biden to make as strong a primary showing as possible? Thank you for your thoughts.
Good morning, Simon. Please clarify or expand on your statement "I don't know that we will need to win by 3-4 points this time to win the electoral college."
In 2020 we won by 4.5 pts in the popular vote but barely won the Electoral College. When I post that we lead one often hears but yes Simon we have to win by 4-5 points to win in 2024. My point is that we don't know that to be true, yet. Might be. Might not be. We will see.
Not really. The national margin matters for all the down ballot races underneath, and for the perception of whether or not this election is seen as a clear repudiation of a dangerous politics. Please read my Get to 55 memo linked in this piece.
Finding myself extremely grateful for the attention to the words of MLK, in Simon’s post, as in the Substack posts of Robert Hubbell and Heather Cox Richardson. As in my own meanderings over the last couple of days.
Two passages here, I want to remember. That they may be a vehicle to move from “the abyss of despair” – to what is heartbreakingly beautiful. And that I may act upon them:
“Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.”
“Let us all hope that the dark clouds of racial prejudice will soon pass away and the deep fog of misunderstanding will be lifted from our fear drenched communities, and in some not too distant tomorrow the radiant stars of love and brotherhood will shine over our great nation with all their scintillating beauty.”
~ Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., Letter from a Birmingham Jail
Your HC makes a big difference today: the Houston photo, Dr K's letter, and polling analysis. You are right that we need to reach 55%, so that we halt maga creep. Unrecognizable today in US life -- not people's appearances, but prevalence of hate.
Heard you on Molly Jong Fast this morning giving a good reaction to the USA Today recent polls with that laughable lead for trump among youth voters. At the same time many people were giddy over Biden's gains with older voters. I agree neither result is likely. It was a great discussion and I urge folks here to listen to it. You can get it for free, Fast Politics.
I could be wrong, but I think the likelihood that Biden will exceed his 2020 margin and that Trump is weaker and more degraded as a candidate and will likely under perform his 2020 margin is avoided in discourse and analysis by most because Rs don’t want to depress their voters, Ds are terrified of complacency causing a 2016 repeat, and the media is desperate for a horserace to attract viewers/readers…but 2022/2023 to me point to a pretty obvious current trajectory in the absence of a major unforeseen dynamic changing event.
When I think of MLK, I am always engulfed in two separate but connected emotions. Hope and determination that we will continue to improve the structural inequities that have been at the root of our most shameful collective history, and enormous pride in the Democratic Party for being willing over the past century to rehabilitate and evolve itself to be an instrument of that change and be a representative body of our entire national population. We aren’t perfect and never will be, but the story of our party in the past 100 years is that we have embraced the core values of freedom, equality, fairness, and justice, and evolved our policies and politics consistently to try to meet the moment we were in to best serve those values......and we had the courage to do it in the mid 60s knowing it would greatly fracture our coalition and weaken us competitively for a time, but goddammit, it was the right thing to do for humanity and history, and you have to be willing to seize those moments when you can and weather the storms that follow.
The Republican Party has done precisely the opposite in every conceivable way. The have abandoned wholesale the sense of fairness and equality that were at the very center of their inception, and they have done it at the very time when those principles are most needed as we move toward the demographic tipping point of a majority minority population. It is, in my view, the most shameful betrayal of founding principles in all of American history, and it has turned them into a domestic threat and international embarrassment.
I’m a proud Democrat because to me it means that I am a loyal American, an imperfect human, but someone always trying to reach for a better version of myself and to be of as much value as I can relative to the challenges that I and my greater community are facing. That’s a life I’ll be proud to have lived when I am one day taking my final breath, and in the modern age, it’s the story of my party, the most positively impactful and consequential political organization in the whole of human history. Thanks for helping us bend the arc of history towards justice Dr. King. 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Thanks for quoting these words of Dr. King. They are as riveting and resonant now as when he wrote them. Our nation is so blessed to count him as one of our role models and heroes.
Hello Simon. I'm curious about your daily use of poll data. I worked in political environments for much of my career and the driving message was to ignore polls unless we knew who commissioned the poll, who wrote the questions, who paid for the poll, how many people were polled and by what means - phone (landline), mobile, email, texts. Poll data is just a snapshot in time and often winds up with the results mudding the landscape of reality.
Polling has become a shitshow
We cannot ignore polls. They are a major part of how people understand politics now, a major part of the information space, and like all aspects of the info space we must engage in shaping it and not leave it to others. As I write, I am also trying to create an understanding of electoral data that is not centered on polling, but we cannot ignore polls.
I continue to be so grateful for this community and for Simon. After the 2016 election so many of us felt so alone and devastated. Now we know we are not alone and all of us are working overtime to save our democracy. So grateful and relieved to be in this together!
Thank you for this insightful post. Gives me positive feelings about 2024 election. It is heartening to be in a community of like minded folks.
Thanks for the reasoned optimism, Simon! The fact is, there are more of us than there are of them. If we vote--we win.
What do you think of this
The "Don't Be A Mitch" campaign is back after a hugely successful 2022 cycle, raising $1.2 million for voter registration groups ahead of the midterm elections. This year, with a tough Senate map, we have no room for error. I put together a list of organizations that I think are best situated to ensure that the Senate stays in Democrats' hands. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dontbeamitch
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1/15/2217493/-The-Don-t-Be-A-Mitch-campaign-is-back-after-a-hugely-successful-2022-cycle-raising-1-2
I love you all.
Simon, Thank you for all of the analysis and leadership you provide. It is always helpful to have your data to share with people. On a related note, I’m sure many people read the NY Times piece this morning (linked below).
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/opinion/trump-voters-economy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
It posits that trump voters were better off financially during the first 3 years of his term and that is affecting their likely voting behavior. While you and the author may be looking at different measures, I wonder if you have any thoughts about how to address these voters. Thanks, as always, for your wise thinking.
Not sure what Simon will say, but view is that we need to focus much more on truly persuadable voters and worry much less about the MAGA/Structurally partisan block in the GOP that simply aren’t available to us. Many of them will go to their graves justifying their support of Trump because when you go all in for something that proves to be truly evil and malevolent, it’s often too painful to accept what you were complicit in....it’s just human nature. It’s clear that the economy has become deeply politicized in the Trump era, and there are a block of voters who need his pre-COVID economy to be the “best in history” so bad for their own personal psychology that no amount of improvement from Biden will ever be enough for them to accept or acknowledge it....it’s just become too “binary” for them, and it’s unacceptable for the “enemy” to have done something good.
So, that block of voters is certainly a potential danger to our society because they are so unmovable and clearly feel scared and isolated....but there are more of us outside of that block than inside it and we just have to focus our efforts on reaching those who are reachable and continue to deny the MAGA block every layer of power we can for as long as it takes for them to age out and or disengage, and until the GOP or a new Center-Right party can build a new Center-Right voting coalition that allows them to be both a responsible governing party when they win and a loyal opposition when they lose.
Not all trump voters are MAGA though, and I have heard many times that things were better off under trump; inflation can have a corrosive affect on people, and we know from history people will settle for a dictator if the price of bread goes down. Sometimes. We like to think we are different. We'll have that chance to show that we are. The Haley voters are more partial to Biden than trump. Well, Biden and Haley have two opposite visions for the country; one is pro-union, pro working class, pro-choice, pro public education and public services, pro Social Security and Medicare, and dedicated to improving access to health care. Haley is AGAINST all of that. And can't tell you what the Civil War was about. So do people really pay attention to those issues? The Rick Wilsons of the world will tell you no, not really. We'll see.
I stand by my comments.... I didn’t say all Trump voters are MAGA.... I said we worry too much about people who aren’t reachable which needlessly and counterproductively drains energy that could be used to target people who are. Of those who claim they were economically better off under Trump, some (small but meaningful) portion will be reachable and will soften in their resistance to Biden as they continue to feel the effects of our impressive post Covid recovery.....but because of the politicization of economics and the hyper negative partisanship of the MAGA base, there’s a good 42% or more of likely voters who aren’t going to acknowledge economic gains under Biden regardless of how impressive or beneficial they are, let alone risk giving him any credit for it. And in my view we should stop pulling our hair out worrying about them and just pay attention to the 55% that is truly persuadable.
Dobbs may change everything; I was listening to something about "Dobbs Dads" and "Red Dawns" who are solid R voters but have daughters and don't want the state telling them what to do. So they are reachable, but could they fall for Haley's attempts at soft-pedaling her real stance on abortion? I don't know. Or trump's attempts, as hollow as they ring, to also "soften" his stance? It is hard for me to think they will.
Agreed....but they are still what I would call “reachable”..... just think there’s a lot of freaking out over 40% of folks who will never be with us.....and that’s okay. The biggest landslides in our history have been 58 - 60%, and they were anomalous....my overarching point is that there are more than enough “gettable” votes to not worry about those which are not available
There is also a very real opportunity to grow the voter base.
Only a small fraction of young people actually register to vote as soon as they are able to do so. But the ones who do register, vote in similar proportions to other age cohorts. The Civics Center has some very good information about this on their wensite: www.thecivicscenter.org. They also have a useful map showing different states stances on pre-registration: https://www.thecivicscenter.org/map.
There are alot of states where young people can pre-register NOW and vote in November so long as their 18th birthday is before election day.
I volunteered for the NC voter protection hotline in 2020 and it was heartbreaking to tell someone that "no you cannot register on election day in NC and have your vote count". (We do have same day registration during early voting which ends the Saturday before the election).
So please help young people get registered EARLY!
Simon, as always, thank you for the shot of optimism. Out here in the very red Shenandoah Valley, it's like good, strong medicine. Early voting for the Virginia primary starts this week. Virginia has open primaries. I'm thinking it would make sense to vote for Haley, based on the notion that Biden will definitely win the Democratic primary. Do you think that's correct? Or does it matter for Biden to make as strong a primary showing as possible? Thank you for your thoughts.
Good morning, Simon. Please clarify or expand on your statement "I don't know that we will need to win by 3-4 points this time to win the electoral college."
In 2020 we won by 4.5 pts in the popular vote but barely won the Electoral College. When I post that we lead one often hears but yes Simon we have to win by 4-5 points to win in 2024. My point is that we don't know that to be true, yet. Might be. Might not be. We will see.
Isn't the win all about the 5-7 swing states? A red vote in a blue state matters as little as a blue vote in a red state.
Not really. The national margin matters for all the down ballot races underneath, and for the perception of whether or not this election is seen as a clear repudiation of a dangerous politics. Please read my Get to 55 memo linked in this piece.
I was really referring to the presidential race and the electoral college. I see your point about down ballot races though.
Finding myself extremely grateful for the attention to the words of MLK, in Simon’s post, as in the Substack posts of Robert Hubbell and Heather Cox Richardson. As in my own meanderings over the last couple of days.
Two passages here, I want to remember. That they may be a vehicle to move from “the abyss of despair” – to what is heartbreakingly beautiful. And that I may act upon them:
“Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.”
“Let us all hope that the dark clouds of racial prejudice will soon pass away and the deep fog of misunderstanding will be lifted from our fear drenched communities, and in some not too distant tomorrow the radiant stars of love and brotherhood will shine over our great nation with all their scintillating beauty.”
~ Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., Letter from a Birmingham Jail
Your HC makes a big difference today: the Houston photo, Dr K's letter, and polling analysis. You are right that we need to reach 55%, so that we halt maga creep. Unrecognizable today in US life -- not people's appearances, but prevalence of hate.
Check this out: https://www.americanbridgepac.org/american-bridge-announces-it-will-spend-200-million-over-2024-cycle/
Love this. Can’t wait to see these ads
Heard you on Molly Jong Fast this morning giving a good reaction to the USA Today recent polls with that laughable lead for trump among youth voters. At the same time many people were giddy over Biden's gains with older voters. I agree neither result is likely. It was a great discussion and I urge folks here to listen to it. You can get it for free, Fast Politics.
Thank you for sharing that today. It brings tears to my eyes that 60(?) years later white supremacy is still so strong in America. .
I could be wrong, but I think the likelihood that Biden will exceed his 2020 margin and that Trump is weaker and more degraded as a candidate and will likely under perform his 2020 margin is avoided in discourse and analysis by most because Rs don’t want to depress their voters, Ds are terrified of complacency causing a 2016 repeat, and the media is desperate for a horserace to attract viewers/readers…but 2022/2023 to me point to a pretty obvious current trajectory in the absence of a major unforeseen dynamic changing event.
When I think of MLK, I am always engulfed in two separate but connected emotions. Hope and determination that we will continue to improve the structural inequities that have been at the root of our most shameful collective history, and enormous pride in the Democratic Party for being willing over the past century to rehabilitate and evolve itself to be an instrument of that change and be a representative body of our entire national population. We aren’t perfect and never will be, but the story of our party in the past 100 years is that we have embraced the core values of freedom, equality, fairness, and justice, and evolved our policies and politics consistently to try to meet the moment we were in to best serve those values......and we had the courage to do it in the mid 60s knowing it would greatly fracture our coalition and weaken us competitively for a time, but goddammit, it was the right thing to do for humanity and history, and you have to be willing to seize those moments when you can and weather the storms that follow.
The Republican Party has done precisely the opposite in every conceivable way. The have abandoned wholesale the sense of fairness and equality that were at the very center of their inception, and they have done it at the very time when those principles are most needed as we move toward the demographic tipping point of a majority minority population. It is, in my view, the most shameful betrayal of founding principles in all of American history, and it has turned them into a domestic threat and international embarrassment.
I’m a proud Democrat because to me it means that I am a loyal American, an imperfect human, but someone always trying to reach for a better version of myself and to be of as much value as I can relative to the challenges that I and my greater community are facing. That’s a life I’ll be proud to have lived when I am one day taking my final breath, and in the modern age, it’s the story of my party, the most positively impactful and consequential political organization in the whole of human history. Thanks for helping us bend the arc of history towards justice Dr. King. 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Thanks for quoting these words of Dr. King. They are as riveting and resonant now as when he wrote them. Our nation is so blessed to count him as one of our role models and heroes.