Simon...first off, excellent interviews as of late. We all deeply appreciate your visible presence in this most righteous fight for our democracy. Secondly, great to have seen the electricity within the turnout and response to both Biden and Harris in Philly! The crowd was pumped and the support was both vivid and real! Little to no protesting from what I read/saw on tv and Harris in particular (our girl), had a strong showing of support matched by a strong performance.
The visual of a significant group of Black women behind her as she made her most necessary and astute pitch regarding women's healthcare was striking in all the best ways. The crowd could be heard chanting four more years and it's imperative our Hopium family recognizes the reality on the ground which further exposes the stark contrast as next to no one shows up to the Manhattan Courthouse for 45.
Not only was Philly a strong moment for both Biden and Harris---but---alongside De Niro' impassionate and highly resonating speech standing beside two national heroes (a great campaign strategy---contrary to what Fox world and some counterproductively skeptical Dems have recklessly touted)---the momentum is gradually and visibly shifting just as you forecasted.
If Trump is convicted (although, I should say when as I try to manifest it as best I can), I absolutely predict this will cause him to snap and generate an obsession he'll fester on, unable to withstand being labeled a convicted felon. Yes, it will cause him to be more volatile but as we will likely witness a full throated downward spiral both mentally and possibly physically (given the extraordinary stress he puts on his own body)---this will only heighten the contrast even more and in due time, with women's healthcare, preservation of the Democratic Republic, and progressing economics in our favor---all at the forefront---the other issues of immigration, crime, protests, and foreign affairs---will be overshadowed by those top three, further accentuating just how severe, clear, and stark the choice is.
Like you've said, forget the mainstream media polling narratives and punditry that only serve the purpose to foment chaos and generate ratings. The data is on the ground and Biden/Harris' urgency is sharp and real! Philly just the other day is a primitive example of that and with that---I definitely rather be Biden/Harris in their position than Trump in his. Like you, I believe the tide is beginning to truly turn....NOW! Thanks for all you do Simon and apologies for the lengthy response.
I hope that everyone who thought Kamala Harris was “useless” “had a terrible image” “no charisma” etc. etc. are choking on huge mouthfuls of crow as she hits the road for the Biden campaign. She’s wonderful. This is why people in her state kept electing her to office.
I strongly suspect that so much of the sentiment against her was her being a successful woman of color, in the #2 highest office in the country, rather than any personal failings of her presentation or personality. And people who complained in the first part of Biden’s term that she “never went anywhere” forgot that she had to keep trotting back to the Capitol to cast tie breaking votes - I think she cast the most of any VP ever.
Viva “Momala!”
On the subject of Joe Biden, I was glad to see the enthusiasm in Philly, because Biden is originally from Scranton, so PA is his home turf as well as Delaware. It also takes the wind out of the sails of those who think Bob Casey is in any danger of losing his seat. It will help with down-ballot races. And it just feels good to know that our POTUS attracted a vast crowd, while a certain rapist facing down felony charges has attracted a few assorted weirdos and that’s it.
I have to admit that I was not keen on Kamala. She wasn't good at politiking and no one seemed to have much respect for her. I could easily see her a a drag on the ticket, but Biden wisely kept putting her out there, giving her important tasks. My (and others') opinion changed as she grew into her role, and I now see her as a valuable asset to the ticket. Maybe I'm just behind the curve, but I don't hear the other side using her to warn against re-electing her boss.
I read an excellent discussion by Michael Podhorzer this morning, and he does a really deep dive into LVs and all that, but he made a good point about polls; they are opinions, they are not behavior. He is more interested in behavior, that is, how people actually vote. For example, if I read him right, Biden actually had somewhat LESS Democratic voters in 2020; but he had MORE of the less likely voters than trump, and that made a difference. So turnout has to do with what is on voter's minds in the weeks before an election, and you can't really say what they will do until you know what issues are most important to them at that time. And they will decide who they think is best on those issues. Now that is not that confidence inspiring to me, but the gist is that the polls should not be taken as gospel. It's a long piece and I'm not doing it justice and I would love Simon to weigh in on it. He notes that the American public largely hates the MAGA movement, but they are not all reliable voters.
Downloaded my NC letters last night and will be getting them in the mail ASAP. I spent a lot of time during the 2020 lockdown writing letters for VF; glad they're getting in on registering new voters this election cycle.
I have been writing poctcards for FT6 to women in NC-01 and earlier this week I got a fundraising email from FT6 that they want to buy more data in a different NC house district (NC-11). I'm not sure the latter is competitive but it can only help in important statewide races in NC.
But I'm also writing Vote Forward letters for NC. I am going to pause writing the GOTV letters that won't be mailed until October and adopt some of the voter registration letters for NC. I also did a couple of batches of letters for the Vote From Abroad "lab" campaign.
I've also been sending FT6 postcards to NC-01. They are targeted to women, in a district that was solid D for many years but has been gerrymandered to boost GOP chances. I like how the FT6 postcards can be sent now and include a website and QR code for the Voterizer.org portal where anyone in any state can be directed to their state's voter registration site to register or confirm/update. NC-11 is far western NC and solid R. I wonder if FT6 wants to target some of the more competitive statewide or legislative races there. This article highlights some state/local races in NC that have crazy MAGA candidates: https://www.theassemblync.com/politics/elections/nc-elections-2024-10-races-to-watch/
“If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump). When there is no voter screen (i.e., all young adults 18-29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, with 16 percent undecided.
Among the 1,051 "likely voters" in our sample, we found significant differences in support levels based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education levels, among other subgroups. For example, among likely young voters:
President Biden's lead among young men is six points; among young women his lead is 33 points;
President Biden's lead among 18-24 year-olds is 14 points, and among 25-29 year-olds it is 26 points;
President Biden's lead among white voters is 3 points; among non-white voters his lead is 43 points;
President Biden's lead among college students is 23 points; he leads by 47 points among college graduates. The race is even among those not in college and without a four-year degree.”
Also- it confirms what Simon has said, that while young voters want a ceasefire, their top concern is the economy.
“Again, we found that economic concerns were viewed as more prominent. Inflation, healthcare, housing, and jobs won most match-ups regardless of what they were paired against.”
The NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters looks a little tighter for those under 45, but it is still in the same range as most other polls. I am not sure I like NPR's clickbait style headline, but I suppose that is what you have to do to get views on a news site in 2024
And the people who are *statistically more likely to vote* (women, college grads, those 25 and up) overwhelmingly favor Biden. Thank you for sharing this! I like deep dives, and I like stuff to wave in the faces of people who think young people and non-white voters are deserting Biden.
Michigan's Consumer Confidence index has been moving up steadily, which is a sign that consumers are finding the economic situation less dire than they did only months ago. Another good sign.
Thanks for sharing that, it's real information that matters. It shows that at least one college has engaged and likely engaged young voters who not apathetic and are very concerned about the direction our country is headed if somehow that orange stain manages to grab the presidency again.
I've worked my local poll for the 2020 and 2022 elections as a deputy registrar, the amount of 18 y/o voters increased quite a bit between those two years and it was was encouraging for me to count up how many more signed up to vote Democrat - 2:1 over GQP or Independent. The false narrative that young people of Gen Y aren't voting just isn't true, they are, and they are enthusiastic, more so than the older generations who have registered to vote in my state (NH).
I suppose there’s always a chance that THIS year, unlike the last two times he ran, and now with potentially a criminal conviction, but THIS year Trump manages to turn out a bunch of people who have never been motivated to vote.
There’s always a chance, but it doesn’t seem likely, does it?
Why is Biden doing better with those more likely to vote and Trump appears stronger when the less likely to vote, those who are non-habitual voters, are included in polls?
I believe it is those it is those who choose and understand the meaning of citizenship who decide elections. Those who are mere subjects simply await election outcomes and then are forced to live with the consequences.
Democracy is a fragile construct. When we examine the long expanse of human history, democracy stands out as a relatively recent development, spanning less than 250 years since the establishment of modern democratic systems. Historically, the majority of societies have been governed by autocratic rulers, monarchs, and emperors, where the concept of individual rights and collective decision-making was virtually nonexistent. For most of human history, people lived as subjects under the rule of a sovereign, without any real say in the laws that governed their lives or the leaders who wielded power over them.
In contrast, democracy offers a transformative shift in the relationship between the governed and those who govern. Within a democracy, individuals are not merely subjects but citizens—participants in the political process who have the power to influence and shape their shared futures. This is achieved through mechanisms such as free elections, the rule of law, and civil liberties. Citizens have the opportunity to vote for their leaders, hold them accountable, and contribute to the formation of policies that affect their lives. This active participation is the cornerstone of democratic governance and differentiates citizens from subjects.
The role of a citizen in a democracy extends beyond just voting. It encompasses a wide range of civic duties and responsibilities, including staying informed about political issues, engaging in public discourse, advocating for social justice, and even participating in civil society organizations. Through these actions, citizens collectively guide the direction of their society, ensuring that it remains responsive to their needs and aspirations.
This sense of agency and involvement makes democracy not just a system of government but a way of life that values freedom, equality, and justice. However, democracy's relative novelty and fragility mean it is not guaranteed to endure. The stability of a democratic system relies heavily on the active and informed participation of its citizens. Apathy, ignorance, or the erosion of democratic norms can pave the way for authoritarianism, where individuals once again become mere subjects with no control over their destinies. History provides numerous examples of democratic societies that have succumbed to authoritarian rule when the delicate balance of democratic principles was disrupted.
At this critical juncture, we face a profound choice. Will we continue to uphold and strengthen our democratic institutions, ensuring that we remain active citizens with a say in our collective future? Or will we allow complacency and division to undermine the democratic ideals, leading us back to a state of subjugation where our futures are dictated by a few?
The choices we make today will have far-reaching consequences. If we fail to safeguard our democratic values and institutions, we may lose the freedoms and rights that define us as citizens. This could be the last opportunity we have to choose our path, as the erosion of democracy can be swift and difficult to reverse.
Preserving democracy requires each generation's conscious and continuous effort. It demands vigilance, education, and active participation. As citizens, we have the power and responsibility to shape our future. By making informed and deliberate choices, we can ensure that democracy remains a vibrant and enduring system of governance, where individuals are not mere subjects but empowered participants in their own destinies.
Will we choose to be citizens or subjects? Will we choose to be patriots, promoting an open and inclusive society recognizing the equality, rights, and dignity of all? Will we respect and cherish the rule of law and fulfill our civic responsibilities as citizens to be well-informed, to identify and work to correct our flaws, and to hold those we choose to govern accountable? Will we work to protect the right to vote, for all to participate equally in choosing how we are governed? Will we recognize that civic and human rights belong to all, not only those living within our borders? Will we recognize that merely waving a flag is not patriotism? Patriotism requires active, responsible participation in civic affairs by being informed voters.
This is a great comment, and I want to expand on this bit: “I believe it is those it is those who choose and understand the meaning of citizenship who decide elections. Those who are mere subjects simply await election outcomes and then are forced to live with the consequences.”
If people who are *not likely voters* favor Trump, not only does that do him no good at the ballot box (by definition!), it shows them as people who want others to do the deciding for them. It’s these kind of people who I think would like to have a benevolent dictator if they could. Never mind that most dictators do not *stay* benevolent, or they are followed by malevolent dictators or failsons. If you want a decent leader, you have to elect them. That is why, as Winston Churchill famously said, democracy may be a bad form of government but it’s superior to all the alternatives! (Paraphrasing.)
I also wonder how many Trump supporters are thinking along the lines of, “I won’t bother to vote, but the “powers that be” (SCOTUS, Republican Secretaries of State, etc.) will overturn the RIGGED election and hand the Presidency to Trump,” or else, “Hey, if Biden wins we can just riot! After all, that’s what revolutions are for!”
It’s not only a dangerously passive way of looking at government and citizenship, it’s a kind of… cosplaying way, for lack of a better phrase. It’s like the SCA where you adopt a persona, and a costume, and a way of life for a weekend, but instead of just spending a weekend as Sir Drew Steele and then going back to work as a regular person on Monday, you’re cosplaying 24/7. But, that’s not how it works. Your vote is your voice, and the best way to be heard as a citizen is at the ballot box. Democracy is not for the passive, or those who just want bread and circuses and to be done with it. (Though I really cannot blame people who don’t want to hear about politics and news 24/7. Be informed, but don’t be obsessed.)
I'm discounting that Decision Desk "projection" alleging the GOP has a 58% chance for a trifecta. Especially the "projection" that the GOP has an 80% chance of getting the Senate given the real set of goofballs they're putting up.
The latest being the clown in Minnesota. It's now come out he's a deadbeat dad...
Minnesota’s current Bad Candidate Problem is making Michele Bachmann look positively statesmanlike, and that’s saying a lot. The state Republican parties are sorely underfunded and understaffed, so, “I can self-fund!” Is one criterion of being nominated. The other is being the biggest clown in the circus.
I think you have something there with the self-funding part. The GOP seems to be using just two criteria to pick their candidates - must be ultra-MAGA and must not expect the GOP to help fund their campaign.
Now it's happening in FL. I attended a zoom which featured the activist in FL who recruited Dems to run for every state legislative seat and is now fundraising to cover the expensive filing fees that must be raised in the next two(?) weeks in order to get them on the ballot.
Democrats have money (thanks to our grassroots and small donors), a great DNC leader in Jaime Harrison, and a President who doesn’t need a slush fund to pay legal bills. That means we can run ground games and fund good candidates, instead of hanging out a sign saying “Wanted: Clown With At Least 1/2 Billion in Funds.”
Please keep banging on about political corruption.
I donate modest amounts to Dems, and on occasion have given to Republicans (back in the day).
But the amount of money in politics is disgusting, and I'm becoming increasingly alienated. There appears to be a huge campaignIndustrialComplex and I'd frankly like to know how much those people are creaming off my contributions. (For which reason, I now donate mostly to state level candidates who are notable for being thrifty.)
But I'm still reeling from the Jan 6th committee's highlight of **just how many millions** Trump was collecting by hollering about 'stolen election! stolen election!' Trump raised a quarter **b**illion off that single 'issue'. That is obscene --
I'd almost give my eye teeth to any Dem who could translate Trump's $250,000,000 into how many school buses, police vehicles, ambulances, municipal water supply improvements that money could have covered.
I realize that a lot of news comes via paid media, and paid media is probably n-e-v-e-r going to call b.s. on campaign donations -- to say nothing of the Federalist Society's funding of SCOTUS and other judicial nominations (!). So it's up to the bloggers, apparently, and what remains of the political parties, to call b.s. on this ludicrous fundraising and spending.
I'm really enjoying keeping an eye on the British elections (go Starmer!). Less than eight weeks, and far less money spent on campaigning. I realize that Britain is smaller than the US, but in terms of shorter, less expensive elections, they appear to be nailing it.
Have you heard about the states project and their giving circles? That might be right up your alley and I think it avoids the issue of the "Campaign Industrial Complex" sisnce it all grassroots driven.
I wonder how much of this disparity is tied to turnout - 2018 was a blue tsunami and 2022 was driven by Dobbs. It's possible that the 2020-only group is simply R+12 - they had no good reason to vote in the other two years - and the all-three-years group is the opposite. Hopkins notes that there may be reason to doubt the predictiveness of the 2022-2024 specials and midterms (as others have done) because a flood of 2020 voters could arrive to save Trump, but if Democrats are turning out better in 2022, 2023, and so far in 2024 specials, why would that turnout machine not confer an advantage in November?
It would be nice to know both the partisan split and size of each of these groups - I don't have the time to dig through any available NORC crosstabs. One indicator, though, is that the 2020 electorate broke down 37/36/26 D/R/I, while 2016 was 37/33/31. https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020 The only other time in the past 40 years when the electorate was that Republican was in 2004, and presidents typically drew more favorable electorates in their re-election year.
In other words, Trump had a typical Republican re-election electorate in 2020, helping to explain why 2020-only voters would favor him so much. It can be argued that Biden could expect a more friendly electorate in 2024 regardless of post-Dobbs turnout, and Dobbs pushes the accelerator down even more. Obama's re-election in 2012 was 38/32/29.
Jon Favreau, responding to understandable concerns about high gas prices, groceries, etc.: “President Biden inherited an absolute mess from his predecessor. Using his experience and skill, he passed a series of bipartisan measures to lower inflation, make health care and Rx drugs more affordable, create well-paying jobs, and rebuild our roads and bridges. Biden’s plan worked — creating millions of jobs and curbing inflation — but there is much more work to do. Because of greedy corporations, prices are still too high and too many Americans are struggling. Re-elect President Biden so he can finish the job.
Donald Trump takes us backward by repealing the Afford Care Act, allowing Big Drug companies to charge as much as they can for lifesaving drugs, and giving a $3 trillion tax cut to the wealthy and corporations that he will pay for in part by cutting Social Security and Medicare.”
Ok, peeps, we need to talk to friends in battleground states and NY & CA, our Dem strongholds, to write letters to the editor and get the media to stop predicting another “red wave!” BUT let’s also get the Dem notables to talk up the differences in abortion policy… Joe isn’t comfortable doing that as much as talking about climate change and democracy, but his campaigners MUST get out the pro-choice votes b/c half the population us being written off—- I’m talking about YOU, ladies!
Definitely- He needs abortion access surrogates because he’s not as strong on the topic as he needs to be. And I do get it, his personal opinion differs from what he believes the law should be, so there’s some internal conflict when discussing the topic. I hope they keep sending Kamala Harris, flanked by female OBs, out on the trail to talk about the Biden- HARRIS position on reproductive healthcare access. Because she is terrific on the subject.
In my personal opinion, she should make the VP debate ALL about abortion- “Yes, that’s an interesting question, but what we really need to talk about is the fact that young American women and girls now have fewer rights than their mothers and some of their grandmothers did. We need to talk about women dying of preventable pregnancy complications.” Just hammer abortion the entire debate. Because it’s such a winning argument for us and it needs to be centered way more by the campaign, I feel.
VP Harris is doing a great job on the Reproductive Rights front.
There are also lots of local events in swing states that don't get the attention of the national press. About a month ago I went uptown to attend a press conference at the NCDP office where two women who suffered adverse consequences of a pregnancy gone wrong in red states were giving their testimony along an OBGYN who specializes in high-risk pregnancies, a spokeperson from a local abortion clinic, and a bunch pro-choice female elected officials and candidates. Two local news stations, our local NPR affiliate and a local independent newspaper attended the press conference. I spoke with the staffer on the NC Biden campaign and they were replicating this press conference at several other NCDP offices around the state.
Very interesting analysis about engaged voters. I wonder, though, how it accounts for young voters who were not eligible to vote in one or both of the last two elections?
Also, Simon, can you or a commenter please link me to your latest “With Democrats things Get Better”? I found your most recent one particularly uplifting, and have somewhere to share it today. I searched but was unsuccessful.
We are up by 19 pts with 18-29 year old likely voters in latest Harvard/IOP, and turnout among those voters is likely to match 2020 - a high turnout year. I am optimistic about what is going to happen with young people but we have work to do, as we do with all aspects of the electorate.
Sonny Hostin’s comments on the View are very important in calling out Trump as a racist on network TV, as she accurately presented a list of his offenses. Nevertheless, based on my experience as an anti-racist organizer in NYC, I think that the message needs to be more specific and serve as a clear warning about what is at stake. For example, Trump wanted to bring in the military to intervene in Black Lives Matter demonstrations following George Floyd’s murder. He is now telling us that when re-elected he will have the military go into urban environments and to set up mass incarcerations. This is extremely dangerous and I believe needs to be the type of message everyone hears, over and over. This is what means, concretely, that Trump is a racist and is one of the reasons why younger people of color, as well as all of us, need to elect Joe Biden president.
I really appreciated your comments on The Wilderness with Jon Favreau about our extra muscle of engaged volunteers. Jon cited a survey of people who were deeply interested in politics and spent an hour each day reading or watching political news….but only 5% of them are volunteers for campaigns or grassroots efforts. I am inspired everyday working along side more than 100 other volunteers in a grassroots campaign to reach 40,000 voters in AZCD06 who support reproductive rights but only score in the mid range for turnout. Doing more really does help me worry less. Onward!
Thanks, Janet. I am trying to do the same in NC, although I also dabble in other states like AZ. I write a lot of postcards for Northeast Arizona Native Democrats to connect indigenous voters with their local organizers.
Daily Kos had a nice write up last week about the group:
I’d be happy to share/adapt the art we used for our postcards which will all be mailed on Sept 30 just before AZ voters receive their mail-in ballots. The key is to have someone who can target and create pre-addressed mailing labels for voters who need some encouragement … email me at jcmarcotte@gmail.com.
I am impressed by the Biden administration and campaign’s emphasis on both macro and micro tactics: macro in the sense of a large economic strategy intended to close the income gap and bolster the middle/working class; and micro in the sense of specific strategies, such as student loan relief, lower drug costs, and assistance to those struggling with credit issues. This combination is so well thought out and really contrasts with the chaotic approaches from the other party.
I also think that there’s an expectation that somehow Biden can’t win without exactly the same coalition that he had in 2020. I don’t think his coalition is gonna look identical to 2020 this year… I think there will be a larger share of Republicans who abandon Trump this year then there was in 2020, and I think Biden will do better among senior citizens this year than he did in 2020. I think he will regain a lot of his margins among voters of color and younger voters that we’ve seen some erosion in with recent Polling, but I just don’t think he hast to get to the same high watermark that he got to in 2020 to win this thing and win it convincingly. I could be wrong, but Joe Trippi keeps saying something that resonates with me… “If you believe some of the polls, and we’re down 20 points from our usual place with young voters and voters of color, and we’re still in a dead heat… We don’t have to gain very much of it back for this to be a blowout.”
Well said Steve! No two electorates/elections look exactly the same. Bill Clinton's re-election didn't consist of all the same people as his '92 election did, just as Barack Obama's 2012 coalition wasn't identical to 2008. So it's a foregone conclusion that '24 WILL NOT look quite like '20. However, between Hopium, Rick Wilson, RVAT, The Lincoln Project etc, I think a lot of ground is bing covered and we're firing on all cylinders, and can offset whatever '20 voters we may lose. Keep calm and campaign on my friends.
Uh, perhaps you meant to post this on Breitbart or The Daily Stormer?
OT but I always mentally change “Breitbart” to “Fright Fart” - I know, I’m mentally still in kindergarten sometimes.
I am taking this post down. Thank you.
Of course. The reality is I'm right.
Yes, you are – extreme right.
Simon...first off, excellent interviews as of late. We all deeply appreciate your visible presence in this most righteous fight for our democracy. Secondly, great to have seen the electricity within the turnout and response to both Biden and Harris in Philly! The crowd was pumped and the support was both vivid and real! Little to no protesting from what I read/saw on tv and Harris in particular (our girl), had a strong showing of support matched by a strong performance.
The visual of a significant group of Black women behind her as she made her most necessary and astute pitch regarding women's healthcare was striking in all the best ways. The crowd could be heard chanting four more years and it's imperative our Hopium family recognizes the reality on the ground which further exposes the stark contrast as next to no one shows up to the Manhattan Courthouse for 45.
Not only was Philly a strong moment for both Biden and Harris---but---alongside De Niro' impassionate and highly resonating speech standing beside two national heroes (a great campaign strategy---contrary to what Fox world and some counterproductively skeptical Dems have recklessly touted)---the momentum is gradually and visibly shifting just as you forecasted.
If Trump is convicted (although, I should say when as I try to manifest it as best I can), I absolutely predict this will cause him to snap and generate an obsession he'll fester on, unable to withstand being labeled a convicted felon. Yes, it will cause him to be more volatile but as we will likely witness a full throated downward spiral both mentally and possibly physically (given the extraordinary stress he puts on his own body)---this will only heighten the contrast even more and in due time, with women's healthcare, preservation of the Democratic Republic, and progressing economics in our favor---all at the forefront---the other issues of immigration, crime, protests, and foreign affairs---will be overshadowed by those top three, further accentuating just how severe, clear, and stark the choice is.
Like you've said, forget the mainstream media polling narratives and punditry that only serve the purpose to foment chaos and generate ratings. The data is on the ground and Biden/Harris' urgency is sharp and real! Philly just the other day is a primitive example of that and with that---I definitely rather be Biden/Harris in their position than Trump in his. Like you, I believe the tide is beginning to truly turn....NOW! Thanks for all you do Simon and apologies for the lengthy response.
I hope that everyone who thought Kamala Harris was “useless” “had a terrible image” “no charisma” etc. etc. are choking on huge mouthfuls of crow as she hits the road for the Biden campaign. She’s wonderful. This is why people in her state kept electing her to office.
I strongly suspect that so much of the sentiment against her was her being a successful woman of color, in the #2 highest office in the country, rather than any personal failings of her presentation or personality. And people who complained in the first part of Biden’s term that she “never went anywhere” forgot that she had to keep trotting back to the Capitol to cast tie breaking votes - I think she cast the most of any VP ever.
Viva “Momala!”
On the subject of Joe Biden, I was glad to see the enthusiasm in Philly, because Biden is originally from Scranton, so PA is his home turf as well as Delaware. It also takes the wind out of the sails of those who think Bob Casey is in any danger of losing his seat. It will help with down-ballot races. And it just feels good to know that our POTUS attracted a vast crowd, while a certain rapist facing down felony charges has attracted a few assorted weirdos and that’s it.
I have to admit that I was not keen on Kamala. She wasn't good at politiking and no one seemed to have much respect for her. I could easily see her a a drag on the ticket, but Biden wisely kept putting her out there, giving her important tasks. My (and others') opinion changed as she grew into her role, and I now see her as a valuable asset to the ticket. Maybe I'm just behind the curve, but I don't hear the other side using her to warn against re-electing her boss.
I read an excellent discussion by Michael Podhorzer this morning, and he does a really deep dive into LVs and all that, but he made a good point about polls; they are opinions, they are not behavior. He is more interested in behavior, that is, how people actually vote. For example, if I read him right, Biden actually had somewhat LESS Democratic voters in 2020; but he had MORE of the less likely voters than trump, and that made a difference. So turnout has to do with what is on voter's minds in the weeks before an election, and you can't really say what they will do until you know what issues are most important to them at that time. And they will decide who they think is best on those issues. Now that is not that confidence inspiring to me, but the gist is that the polls should not be taken as gospel. It's a long piece and I'm not doing it justice and I would love Simon to weigh in on it. He notes that the American public largely hates the MAGA movement, but they are not all reliable voters.
Downloaded my NC letters last night and will be getting them in the mail ASAP. I spent a lot of time during the 2020 lockdown writing letters for VF; glad they're getting in on registering new voters this election cycle.
I have been writing poctcards for FT6 to women in NC-01 and earlier this week I got a fundraising email from FT6 that they want to buy more data in a different NC house district (NC-11). I'm not sure the latter is competitive but it can only help in important statewide races in NC.
But I'm also writing Vote Forward letters for NC. I am going to pause writing the GOTV letters that won't be mailed until October and adopt some of the voter registration letters for NC. I also did a couple of batches of letters for the Vote From Abroad "lab" campaign.
I've also been sending FT6 postcards to NC-01. They are targeted to women, in a district that was solid D for many years but has been gerrymandered to boost GOP chances. I like how the FT6 postcards can be sent now and include a website and QR code for the Voterizer.org portal where anyone in any state can be directed to their state's voter registration site to register or confirm/update. NC-11 is far western NC and solid R. I wonder if FT6 wants to target some of the more competitive statewide or legislative races there. This article highlights some state/local races in NC that have crazy MAGA candidates: https://www.theassemblync.com/politics/elections/nc-elections-2024-10-races-to-watch/
Yes, living in NC, I am very familiar with slate for Council of State races and all the GOP MAGA/Q candidates.
I agree about NC-11, but I donated some money to FT6 to buy the data in NC-11 for the reason you suggested (i.e., to help the statewide races).
Interesting Harvard Youth Poll: https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024
I’m happy to see this:
“If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump). When there is no voter screen (i.e., all young adults 18-29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, with 16 percent undecided.
Among the 1,051 "likely voters" in our sample, we found significant differences in support levels based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education levels, among other subgroups. For example, among likely young voters:
President Biden's lead among young men is six points; among young women his lead is 33 points;
President Biden's lead among 18-24 year-olds is 14 points, and among 25-29 year-olds it is 26 points;
President Biden's lead among white voters is 3 points; among non-white voters his lead is 43 points;
President Biden's lead among college students is 23 points; he leads by 47 points among college graduates. The race is even among those not in college and without a four-year degree.”
Also- it confirms what Simon has said, that while young voters want a ceasefire, their top concern is the economy.
“Again, we found that economic concerns were viewed as more prominent. Inflation, healthcare, housing, and jobs won most match-ups regardless of what they were paired against.”
The NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters looks a little tighter for those under 45, but it is still in the same range as most other polls. I am not sure I like NPR's clickbait style headline, but I suppose that is what you have to do to get views on a news site in 2024
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/30/nx-s1-4984972/poll-biden-younger-voters-trump
And the people who are *statistically more likely to vote* (women, college grads, those 25 and up) overwhelmingly favor Biden. Thank you for sharing this! I like deep dives, and I like stuff to wave in the faces of people who think young people and non-white voters are deserting Biden.
Michigan's Consumer Confidence index has been moving up steadily, which is a sign that consumers are finding the economic situation less dire than they did only months ago. Another good sign.
Fascinating data!!! Deep diving is extremely fruitful.
Thanks for sharing.
Thanks for sharing that, it's real information that matters. It shows that at least one college has engaged and likely engaged young voters who not apathetic and are very concerned about the direction our country is headed if somehow that orange stain manages to grab the presidency again.
I've worked my local poll for the 2020 and 2022 elections as a deputy registrar, the amount of 18 y/o voters increased quite a bit between those two years and it was was encouraging for me to count up how many more signed up to vote Democrat - 2:1 over GQP or Independent. The false narrative that young people of Gen Y aren't voting just isn't true, they are, and they are enthusiastic, more so than the older generations who have registered to vote in my state (NH).
I suppose there’s always a chance that THIS year, unlike the last two times he ran, and now with potentially a criminal conviction, but THIS year Trump manages to turn out a bunch of people who have never been motivated to vote.
There’s always a chance, but it doesn’t seem likely, does it?
Note: Convicted January 6th insurrectionists who are incarcerated are not eligible to vote.
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance…!”
To paraphrase a good friend:
"I am not saying that Donald Trump is a racist – but racists who eagerly vote for him are totally convinced he is."
That was such a good line when he dropped it in the debate.
Why is Biden doing better with those more likely to vote and Trump appears stronger when the less likely to vote, those who are non-habitual voters, are included in polls?
I believe it is those it is those who choose and understand the meaning of citizenship who decide elections. Those who are mere subjects simply await election outcomes and then are forced to live with the consequences.
Democracy is a fragile construct. When we examine the long expanse of human history, democracy stands out as a relatively recent development, spanning less than 250 years since the establishment of modern democratic systems. Historically, the majority of societies have been governed by autocratic rulers, monarchs, and emperors, where the concept of individual rights and collective decision-making was virtually nonexistent. For most of human history, people lived as subjects under the rule of a sovereign, without any real say in the laws that governed their lives or the leaders who wielded power over them.
In contrast, democracy offers a transformative shift in the relationship between the governed and those who govern. Within a democracy, individuals are not merely subjects but citizens—participants in the political process who have the power to influence and shape their shared futures. This is achieved through mechanisms such as free elections, the rule of law, and civil liberties. Citizens have the opportunity to vote for their leaders, hold them accountable, and contribute to the formation of policies that affect their lives. This active participation is the cornerstone of democratic governance and differentiates citizens from subjects.
The role of a citizen in a democracy extends beyond just voting. It encompasses a wide range of civic duties and responsibilities, including staying informed about political issues, engaging in public discourse, advocating for social justice, and even participating in civil society organizations. Through these actions, citizens collectively guide the direction of their society, ensuring that it remains responsive to their needs and aspirations.
This sense of agency and involvement makes democracy not just a system of government but a way of life that values freedom, equality, and justice. However, democracy's relative novelty and fragility mean it is not guaranteed to endure. The stability of a democratic system relies heavily on the active and informed participation of its citizens. Apathy, ignorance, or the erosion of democratic norms can pave the way for authoritarianism, where individuals once again become mere subjects with no control over their destinies. History provides numerous examples of democratic societies that have succumbed to authoritarian rule when the delicate balance of democratic principles was disrupted.
At this critical juncture, we face a profound choice. Will we continue to uphold and strengthen our democratic institutions, ensuring that we remain active citizens with a say in our collective future? Or will we allow complacency and division to undermine the democratic ideals, leading us back to a state of subjugation where our futures are dictated by a few?
The choices we make today will have far-reaching consequences. If we fail to safeguard our democratic values and institutions, we may lose the freedoms and rights that define us as citizens. This could be the last opportunity we have to choose our path, as the erosion of democracy can be swift and difficult to reverse.
Preserving democracy requires each generation's conscious and continuous effort. It demands vigilance, education, and active participation. As citizens, we have the power and responsibility to shape our future. By making informed and deliberate choices, we can ensure that democracy remains a vibrant and enduring system of governance, where individuals are not mere subjects but empowered participants in their own destinies.
Will we choose to be citizens or subjects? Will we choose to be patriots, promoting an open and inclusive society recognizing the equality, rights, and dignity of all? Will we respect and cherish the rule of law and fulfill our civic responsibilities as citizens to be well-informed, to identify and work to correct our flaws, and to hold those we choose to govern accountable? Will we work to protect the right to vote, for all to participate equally in choosing how we are governed? Will we recognize that civic and human rights belong to all, not only those living within our borders? Will we recognize that merely waving a flag is not patriotism? Patriotism requires active, responsible participation in civic affairs by being informed voters.
"Will we recognize that merely waving a flag is not patriotism?"
As a 5th-grader, and much to the annoyance of certain teachers, I would loudly change the wording of the Pledge of Allegiance:
"I pledge allegiance to the CONSTITUTION of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands…"
Drop the "under God" bit as well. It wrecked the rhythm and flow of the pledge.
This is a great comment, and I want to expand on this bit: “I believe it is those it is those who choose and understand the meaning of citizenship who decide elections. Those who are mere subjects simply await election outcomes and then are forced to live with the consequences.”
If people who are *not likely voters* favor Trump, not only does that do him no good at the ballot box (by definition!), it shows them as people who want others to do the deciding for them. It’s these kind of people who I think would like to have a benevolent dictator if they could. Never mind that most dictators do not *stay* benevolent, or they are followed by malevolent dictators or failsons. If you want a decent leader, you have to elect them. That is why, as Winston Churchill famously said, democracy may be a bad form of government but it’s superior to all the alternatives! (Paraphrasing.)
I also wonder how many Trump supporters are thinking along the lines of, “I won’t bother to vote, but the “powers that be” (SCOTUS, Republican Secretaries of State, etc.) will overturn the RIGGED election and hand the Presidency to Trump,” or else, “Hey, if Biden wins we can just riot! After all, that’s what revolutions are for!”
It’s not only a dangerously passive way of looking at government and citizenship, it’s a kind of… cosplaying way, for lack of a better phrase. It’s like the SCA where you adopt a persona, and a costume, and a way of life for a weekend, but instead of just spending a weekend as Sir Drew Steele and then going back to work as a regular person on Monday, you’re cosplaying 24/7. But, that’s not how it works. Your vote is your voice, and the best way to be heard as a citizen is at the ballot box. Democracy is not for the passive, or those who just want bread and circuses and to be done with it. (Though I really cannot blame people who don’t want to hear about politics and news 24/7. Be informed, but don’t be obsessed.)
I'm discounting that Decision Desk "projection" alleging the GOP has a 58% chance for a trifecta. Especially the "projection" that the GOP has an 80% chance of getting the Senate given the real set of goofballs they're putting up.
The latest being the clown in Minnesota. It's now come out he's a deadbeat dad...
Minnesota’s current Bad Candidate Problem is making Michele Bachmann look positively statesmanlike, and that’s saying a lot. The state Republican parties are sorely underfunded and understaffed, so, “I can self-fund!” Is one criterion of being nominated. The other is being the biggest clown in the circus.
I think you have something there with the self-funding part. The GOP seems to be using just two criteria to pick their candidates - must be ultra-MAGA and must not expect the GOP to help fund their campaign.
It is a different story with the Dems. There are the programs like Forgotten Democrats (https://forgottendemocrats.org/) and Every State Blue (https://everystateblue.org/) and the States Project (https://statesproject.org/our-states/) and giving circles to crowd-fund grass roots donations for down ballot races.
Now it's happening in FL. I attended a zoom which featured the activist in FL who recruited Dems to run for every state legislative seat and is now fundraising to cover the expensive filing fees that must be raised in the next two(?) weeks in order to get them on the ballot.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/24/2241931/-FL-Miracle-Update-Uncontested-Districts-Down-to-ZERO-Now-let-s-fund-them-all
Our friend David Pepper from Pepperspectives is deeply involved. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5u-CC_2dnYA
Democrats have money (thanks to our grassroots and small donors), a great DNC leader in Jaime Harrison, and a President who doesn’t need a slush fund to pay legal bills. That means we can run ground games and fund good candidates, instead of hanging out a sign saying “Wanted: Clown With At Least 1/2 Billion in Funds.”
"I think you have something there with the self-funding part."
That was much of David Trone’s argument in Maryland. Money and self-financing ain’t everything – and it shouldn’t be decisive for us.
I’m so glad Angela Alsobrooks beat Trone decisively in the Democratic Primary. We definitely got the best candidate we could against Larry Hogan.
Please keep banging on about political corruption.
I donate modest amounts to Dems, and on occasion have given to Republicans (back in the day).
But the amount of money in politics is disgusting, and I'm becoming increasingly alienated. There appears to be a huge campaignIndustrialComplex and I'd frankly like to know how much those people are creaming off my contributions. (For which reason, I now donate mostly to state level candidates who are notable for being thrifty.)
But I'm still reeling from the Jan 6th committee's highlight of **just how many millions** Trump was collecting by hollering about 'stolen election! stolen election!' Trump raised a quarter **b**illion off that single 'issue'. That is obscene --
I'd almost give my eye teeth to any Dem who could translate Trump's $250,000,000 into how many school buses, police vehicles, ambulances, municipal water supply improvements that money could have covered.
I realize that a lot of news comes via paid media, and paid media is probably n-e-v-e-r going to call b.s. on campaign donations -- to say nothing of the Federalist Society's funding of SCOTUS and other judicial nominations (!). So it's up to the bloggers, apparently, and what remains of the political parties, to call b.s. on this ludicrous fundraising and spending.
I'm really enjoying keeping an eye on the British elections (go Starmer!). Less than eight weeks, and far less money spent on campaigning. I realize that Britain is smaller than the US, but in terms of shorter, less expensive elections, they appear to be nailing it.
Have you heard about the states project and their giving circles? That might be right up your alley and I think it avoids the issue of the "Campaign Industrial Complex" sisnce it all grassroots driven.
https://statesproject.org/
https://statesproject.org/get-involved/giving-circles/
I wonder how much of this disparity is tied to turnout - 2018 was a blue tsunami and 2022 was driven by Dobbs. It's possible that the 2020-only group is simply R+12 - they had no good reason to vote in the other two years - and the all-three-years group is the opposite. Hopkins notes that there may be reason to doubt the predictiveness of the 2022-2024 specials and midterms (as others have done) because a flood of 2020 voters could arrive to save Trump, but if Democrats are turning out better in 2022, 2023, and so far in 2024 specials, why would that turnout machine not confer an advantage in November?
It would be nice to know both the partisan split and size of each of these groups - I don't have the time to dig through any available NORC crosstabs. One indicator, though, is that the 2020 electorate broke down 37/36/26 D/R/I, while 2016 was 37/33/31. https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020 The only other time in the past 40 years when the electorate was that Republican was in 2004, and presidents typically drew more favorable electorates in their re-election year.
In other words, Trump had a typical Republican re-election electorate in 2020, helping to explain why 2020-only voters would favor him so much. It can be argued that Biden could expect a more friendly electorate in 2024 regardless of post-Dobbs turnout, and Dobbs pushes the accelerator down even more. Obama's re-election in 2012 was 38/32/29.
Jon Favreau, responding to understandable concerns about high gas prices, groceries, etc.: “President Biden inherited an absolute mess from his predecessor. Using his experience and skill, he passed a series of bipartisan measures to lower inflation, make health care and Rx drugs more affordable, create well-paying jobs, and rebuild our roads and bridges. Biden’s plan worked — creating millions of jobs and curbing inflation — but there is much more work to do. Because of greedy corporations, prices are still too high and too many Americans are struggling. Re-elect President Biden so he can finish the job.
Donald Trump takes us backward by repealing the Afford Care Act, allowing Big Drug companies to charge as much as they can for lifesaving drugs, and giving a $3 trillion tax cut to the wealthy and corporations that he will pay for in part by cutting Social Security and Medicare.”
Ok, peeps, we need to talk to friends in battleground states and NY & CA, our Dem strongholds, to write letters to the editor and get the media to stop predicting another “red wave!” BUT let’s also get the Dem notables to talk up the differences in abortion policy… Joe isn’t comfortable doing that as much as talking about climate change and democracy, but his campaigners MUST get out the pro-choice votes b/c half the population us being written off—- I’m talking about YOU, ladies!
Definitely- He needs abortion access surrogates because he’s not as strong on the topic as he needs to be. And I do get it, his personal opinion differs from what he believes the law should be, so there’s some internal conflict when discussing the topic. I hope they keep sending Kamala Harris, flanked by female OBs, out on the trail to talk about the Biden- HARRIS position on reproductive healthcare access. Because she is terrific on the subject.
In my personal opinion, she should make the VP debate ALL about abortion- “Yes, that’s an interesting question, but what we really need to talk about is the fact that young American women and girls now have fewer rights than their mothers and some of their grandmothers did. We need to talk about women dying of preventable pregnancy complications.” Just hammer abortion the entire debate. Because it’s such a winning argument for us and it needs to be centered way more by the campaign, I feel.
VP Harris is doing a great job on the Reproductive Rights front.
There are also lots of local events in swing states that don't get the attention of the national press. About a month ago I went uptown to attend a press conference at the NCDP office where two women who suffered adverse consequences of a pregnancy gone wrong in red states were giving their testimony along an OBGYN who specializes in high-risk pregnancies, a spokeperson from a local abortion clinic, and a bunch pro-choice female elected officials and candidates. Two local news stations, our local NPR affiliate and a local independent newspaper attended the press conference. I spoke with the staffer on the NC Biden campaign and they were replicating this press conference at several other NCDP offices around the state.
Very interesting analysis about engaged voters. I wonder, though, how it accounts for young voters who were not eligible to vote in one or both of the last two elections?
Also, Simon, can you or a commenter please link me to your latest “With Democrats things Get Better”? I found your most recent one particularly uplifting, and have somewhere to share it today. I searched but was unsuccessful.
Here's my latest With Dems - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/new-with-dems-recording-biden-gains
We are up by 19 pts with 18-29 year old likely voters in latest Harvard/IOP, and turnout among those voters is likely to match 2020 - a high turnout year. I am optimistic about what is going to happen with young people but we have work to do, as we do with all aspects of the electorate.
Thank you so much, Simon!
He also puts them up on his youtube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/@SimonWDC
Thank you - I expect to share this wonderful message many times in the coming months.
Sonny Hostin’s comments on the View are very important in calling out Trump as a racist on network TV, as she accurately presented a list of his offenses. Nevertheless, based on my experience as an anti-racist organizer in NYC, I think that the message needs to be more specific and serve as a clear warning about what is at stake. For example, Trump wanted to bring in the military to intervene in Black Lives Matter demonstrations following George Floyd’s murder. He is now telling us that when re-elected he will have the military go into urban environments and to set up mass incarcerations. This is extremely dangerous and I believe needs to be the type of message everyone hears, over and over. This is what means, concretely, that Trump is a racist and is one of the reasons why younger people of color, as well as all of us, need to elect Joe Biden president.
I really appreciated your comments on The Wilderness with Jon Favreau about our extra muscle of engaged volunteers. Jon cited a survey of people who were deeply interested in politics and spent an hour each day reading or watching political news….but only 5% of them are volunteers for campaigns or grassroots efforts. I am inspired everyday working along side more than 100 other volunteers in a grassroots campaign to reach 40,000 voters in AZCD06 who support reproductive rights but only score in the mid range for turnout. Doing more really does help me worry less. Onward!
Thanks, Janet. I am trying to do the same in NC, although I also dabble in other states like AZ. I write a lot of postcards for Northeast Arizona Native Democrats to connect indigenous voters with their local organizers.
Daily Kos had a nice write up last week about the group:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/26/2241920/-Native-Voters-in-Northeast-Arizona-are-a-critical-voting-bloc-in-2024
I’d be happy to share/adapt the art we used for our postcards which will all be mailed on Sept 30 just before AZ voters receive their mail-in ballots. The key is to have someone who can target and create pre-addressed mailing labels for voters who need some encouragement … email me at jcmarcotte@gmail.com.
I am impressed by the Biden administration and campaign’s emphasis on both macro and micro tactics: macro in the sense of a large economic strategy intended to close the income gap and bolster the middle/working class; and micro in the sense of specific strategies, such as student loan relief, lower drug costs, and assistance to those struggling with credit issues. This combination is so well thought out and really contrasts with the chaotic approaches from the other party.
I also think that there’s an expectation that somehow Biden can’t win without exactly the same coalition that he had in 2020. I don’t think his coalition is gonna look identical to 2020 this year… I think there will be a larger share of Republicans who abandon Trump this year then there was in 2020, and I think Biden will do better among senior citizens this year than he did in 2020. I think he will regain a lot of his margins among voters of color and younger voters that we’ve seen some erosion in with recent Polling, but I just don’t think he hast to get to the same high watermark that he got to in 2020 to win this thing and win it convincingly. I could be wrong, but Joe Trippi keeps saying something that resonates with me… “If you believe some of the polls, and we’re down 20 points from our usual place with young voters and voters of color, and we’re still in a dead heat… We don’t have to gain very much of it back for this to be a blowout.”
Well said Steve! No two electorates/elections look exactly the same. Bill Clinton's re-election didn't consist of all the same people as his '92 election did, just as Barack Obama's 2012 coalition wasn't identical to 2008. So it's a foregone conclusion that '24 WILL NOT look quite like '20. However, between Hopium, Rick Wilson, RVAT, The Lincoln Project etc, I think a lot of ground is bing covered and we're firing on all cylinders, and can offset whatever '20 voters we may lose. Keep calm and campaign on my friends.