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New With Dems Recording, Biden Gains 4 in NYT Poll, Trump's Ugly April

The Entire Hopium Community Gathers Tuesday at 8pm ET - Register Today!

Happy Saturday everyone. Got a bunch of things for you today:

New With Democrats, Things Get Better Recording - On Thursday I presented an updated version of the core Hopium presentation, With Democrats, Things Get Better. A recording is above. I hope everyone here in the Hopium community watches it in the coming weeks. It takes about 30 minutes, and in this recording, we had a very good discussion afterwards that is worth your time.

As I say in the presentation that things get better when Democrats are in the White House, and not when Republicans are, is the most important, least understood story in American politics today. So watch, discuss, share with others and come spend 30 minutes celebrating the greatness of the Democratic Party of The United States of America, one of the most consequential forces for good and human progress in all of our history.

Biden Gains 4 in NYT Poll - More data now showing a changing election, one getting much better for Joe Biden and the Democrats. A new NYT poll has Biden going from down 5 to down 1, 46-45 - a 4 point gain! This encouraging movement is consistent with many other polls we’ve seen in recent weeks. The election today is close and competitive. Trump no longer leads, and things are moving in our direction.

The analysis of the poll is also consistent with the argument I’ve been making about what was likely to happen this spring - once the general began, and the Biden campaign turned on, some of our wandering coalition would begin to come home and Biden’s numbers would go up. Here’s a few excerpts from the NYT analysis of its poll:

the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president…..Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago…..

In the last month, Mr. Biden’s support among white voters remained flat, but it has inched upward among Black and Latino voters…….Mr. Biden was faring better than he had been a month ago in suburbs and among women……

The last few weeks have brought us lots of encouraging polling. Trump’s leads outside the margin of error have disappeared. Almost every poll national poll taken in recent weeks has the race within margin of error - meaning it’s close and competitive. 21 polls taken since late February have Biden ahead. Many polls have found meaningful movement towards Biden (he’s gained 4 points here, 6 points in Harris X for example). We’ve started seeing better numbers in the battleground states too, as there are now polls with Biden ahead in MI, PA, WI. We had 2 very encouraging polls in NC this week showing Biden within margin of error (tied). One Quinnipiac had Josh Stein up 52-44.

We have a long way to go in this election. Much will change, and we have a lot of work to do. But the election is changing now, becoming bluer, as many of us believed it would. Here at Hopium we celebrate the wins when they come and these last few weeks of polling have been very good for us. Congrats all - it’s encouraging stuff.

More on the bluer 2024 election:

  • My Latest Take on Where Things Are (Video, 4/10/24) - This is my latest overview of where we are in the 2024 election and why I am so fundamentally optimistic. The post also has a deep dive on recent, encouraging polling data. While it remains a close, competitive election, things have gotten bluer in recent weeks, and Trump no longer leads.

  • My Interview With the NYT - This long interview with me ran last week. Do read. Lots of great stuff in here.

  • Deep State Radio Podcast with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan - every few weeks I get together with my good friends David and Tara for a review of the latest in the 2024 election. Do listen, this is always a great podcast with two of the smartest people I know.

Trump’s Very Ugly April - I went on CNN last night to discuss Biden’s improving poll numbers and what has become a very bad April for Donald Trump. Do watch if you have a minute, and yes I finally got a haircut:

As I discuss in the clip I think this has been a disastrous stretch for Trump and the Republicans. The new AZ and FL Supreme Court decisions stripping the rights and freedoms from millions of women in America has sent a powerful reminder to all Americans of the ongoing threat MAGA poses to all of us.

The damage to MAGA was compounded by Trump’s idiotic attempts to minimize the fallout. In a big reveal on Monday he announced he was for leaving reproductive health decisions not to women and their doctors but to politicians in the states. And whatever he thought he was doing, by taking this position, he endorsed and green-lighted the most extreme abortion laws in the country, in places like Florida, Idaho and Texas. He made it clear that total abortion bans with no exceptions and penalties for “trafficking women” were good with him. And if those are okay with him in any state, it means it would be okay with him nationally. Whatever the moronic Trump thought he was doing on Monday, he actually confirmed that he is the most powerful and dangerous abortion extremist in modern American history. He and his party will now have to defend these extremist bans which poll at about 20% across the US, a devastating political place to be on an issue which really matters to voters.

I think Trump’s confirmation of his extremism, and his Monty Python-esque handling of it, is going to cost him and his party in the polls in the coming weeks. It’s already fired up Democrats and will result in us raising more money and getting more volunteer time from our supporters. And on Monday his horrific April continues as his criminal trial stemming from his having sex with a porn star while married to Melania begins. I for one am looking forward to Christian Republicans like Mike Johnson defending the right of Trump to have sex with porn stars while married and illegally covering it all up - hey, no biggie. We all do it!

Trump’s very bad April is about to get a whole lot worse.

Upcoming Events - Register Today! - Yes, lots going here at Hopium right now. Check out our full spring schedule here. If you want to join our paid subscriber events and aren’t yet a paid subscriber you can sign up here. Looking forward to seeing folks soon!

  • Tue, April 16th, 8pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register here

  • Thur, April 18th Evening - Simon speaks in person at the Maricopa Country Democratic Party 100th Anniversary Event (Phoenix) - Buy A Ticket Here

  • Sat, April 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at the Arlington (VA) Democrats Blue Victory Dinner - Buy A Ticket Here

  • Fri, May 3rd, 1pm ET - Monthly Hopium Founding Member Discussion With Simon

  • Wed, May 8th, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together

Hopium Year 2 - Modest Hopium Price Increase on May 1st – Subscribe Today, Save Money, Help Fund Hopium’s Growth and New Content – As our site has grown a great deal in recent months, and the election is upon us, I have to bring a bit money than we’re currently bringing in to manage our growth and produce more high quality content for you.  So, starting on May 1st, an annual Hopium paid subscription will increase from $45 to $50.  It’s my hope that this incentivizes some of our general subscribers to become paid subscribers for the rest of this critical election year, and help bring in the resources necessary to meet our goals. 

My goal is to bring in 1,000-1,500 new paid subscribers at the current rate $45 rate by the end of the month. In our first two days of this campaign we’ve gained 300 new paid subscribers - thank you all! We are off to a good start.

A reminder that when you subscribe Substack grandfathers in your original subscription rate for all time.  So if you subscribe at $45 today, the current annual rate, you will only pay $45 next year no matter what the price is then.  So there is a significant advantage to subscribing now. It locks in the current $45 annual rate for as long as Hopium is doing it’s thing.

Additionally, as we are now a little more than a year old, some of our earliest paid subscribers have begun to go through the renewal process.  Renewals are automatic at Substack.  Your card on file just gets charged.  If you have changed credit cards and need to update your account, or just want to check on your subscription status, click here and scroll down to “subscriptions.” It will tell you whether you are current and provide other information.

One of the other benefits of being a paid subscriber is our daily chat. It is realistically the only place I can engage all of you given how much we’ve grown. I can no longer answer individual emails to me, and please don’t send them. I love the chat for when people pose questions and I answer thousands of others can see them, and we also get to discuss the issues of the day - respectfully, thoughtfully, without dumping anger or frustration - together. It’s also been a great place for people to share ideas and learn from one another on how to be more effective at fighting for our beliefs and values.

The resources paid subscribers provide also allow almost of the content here on the site to remain free and widely available to the Democratic family. In this critical election year where so much is on the line I think that’s really important, and I’ve worked really hard to keep this site and its content easily accessible to all. Paid subscribers make that possible.

Finally, I was talking to Hopium member Lindsay Billingsley the other day and she asked about gift and group memberships.  I realized that I have never really promoted these features here at Hopium.  So, one way you can bring more folks into our community and generate a bit more revenue is by buying discounted group memberships or purchasing gift subscriptions for others.  You can learn more about both by clicking here and reviewing the group and gift links at the top of the page.  

I will be offering some thoughts about year 2 of Hopium Chronicles in the coming days. But just a big hearty thank you for being part of the early days of this plucky and proud community of patriots and information warriors. I am having a lot of fun working along side all of you, and I think we are making a real difference, every day.

Let’s Do More, Worry Less - Here are Hopium we channel all the worry we have about the election into purposeful action. Hopium is a hope with a plan. We don’t just hope we will win this November we do the work to make it so. Right now we are in the final push for three must-win projects - the Biden-Harris campaign, Anderson Clayton/NC Dems and Arizona’s Ruben Gallego. Learn more, donate and volunteer here. Thanks to all of you who’ve stepped up so far!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon

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Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Hopium Chronicles With Simon Rosenberg Podcast
Expert commentary from a 30 year veteran of US politics. Here we'll be working on strategies to defeat MAGA, tell our story more effectively and ensure freedom and democracy prevail. Expect sharp analysis, live events and all sorts of Hopium!