Double TACOS, Dropped Papers, Declining Poll Numbers - Monty Python Or American President?
I will be joining Adam Klasfeld live at 11am ET to discuss all this.....
Morning all. I’m joining journalist Adam Klasfeld at 11am ET on a Substack Live for anyone who wants a little live morning Hopium. Click on this link at 11am to join the conversation.
Here’s what I’ll be taking about this morning…..
Our protests this weekend were dignified, joyous, enormous, peaceful. An affirmation of our great American democratic tradition. They were, and remain this morning, a searing counterpoint to the extraordinary chaos and repeated failure we continue to see from Trump. My overwhelming sense of the moment is that early Trump 2.0 is failing, they know it, and they have begun to panic.
Let’s just look at what happened in the last 24 hours.
The G7 - Trump went to the G7, arrived late for his first meeting, bent the Trumpian knee to Putin, tweeted that Tehran, a city of 10m, needed to evacuate, left a day early blowing off a meeting with Zelensky, refused to sign a joint statement on Iran and Israel, then signed it late last night. In an impromptu press event with UK PM Keir Starmer he dropped papers all over the place.
At the G7, as it was at his parade, his ridiculous tie has gotten longer, his pants higher, and he looks ever more comical, cartoonish, far more like an SNL caricature than a serious leader:
Trump fled the G7 in part because everything being discussed there was an implicit rebuke of him and a reminder of his many failures. He did not bring peace to Ukraine in 24 hours, as he repeatedly promised. He did not bring peace to the Middle East as he repeatedly promised. He did not end the Gaza war as he repeatedly promised. He has not negotiated “90 deals in 90 days” as he repeatedly promised. Europe has not ceded Greenland as he has demanded, nor has Canada agreed to become the 51st state. His tariffs have slowed the economy of every country in the world, including all those in the G7 and our own, something I am sure he was reminded of in the discussions yesterday.
Despite him having all this “strength” the world is not bending the knee to Trump, something all can see; while the world also seems him repeatedly, pathetically, urgently, bending the knee and all of his other ugly parts to Putin, again and again and again.
Immigration Double TACO - As we got numbers in the last week that his immigration escalation was unpopular and the country was turning on him, Trump danced and wiggled. He announced a roll back of enforcement in rural areas and with some businesses. Then Sunday is one of his most unhinged posts of the year he said he was directing immigration resources against blue areas.
Then this morning we learned that actually there is no roll back. Trump chickened out from his initial chickening out. Holy double TACO Batman!
From The Washington Post this morning:
The Department of Homeland Security on Monday told staff that it was reversing guidance issued last week that agents were not to conduct immigration raids at farms, hotels and restaurants — a decision that stood at odds with President Donald Trump’s calls for mass deportations of anyone without legal status.
Officials from Immigration and Customs Enforcement, including its Homeland Security Investigations division, told agency leaders in a call Monday that agents must continue conducting immigration raids at agricultural businesses, hotels and restaurants, according to two people familiar with the call. The new instructions were shared in an 11 a.m. call to representatives from 30 field offices across the country.
ICE and HSI field office supervisors began learning about a likely reversal of the exemption policy Sunday after hearing from DHS leadership that the White House did not support it, according to one person with knowledge of the reversal.
An official from DHS had sent an email Thursday telling agents to “hold on all worksite enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and operating hotels.” That message went out hours after Trump suggested he was sympathetic to concerns raised by farmers and hospitality executives about his deportation plan. The Washington Post spoke with four people who confirmed that a call was held Monday with the agency’s leadership.
There will be no safe spaces for industries who harbor violent criminals or purposely try to undermine ICE’s efforts,” Tricia McLaughlin, an assistant secretary for DHS, said Monday. “Worksite enforcement remains a cornerstone of our efforts to safeguard public safety, national security and economic stability.”
Um, who is in charge of our government? Stephen Miller? Putin? Elon? Trump?
Terrible Polling - Last week Trump saw the worst polling of his second term. His approval was regularly double digit negative, his handling of deportations and immigration went sharply negative and a major poll of his terrible budget bill had it -20, even in worse shape than his handling of inflation and prices.
In the last 24 hours we’ve gotten five additional polls confirming this downward trend:
Two weeks ago: Trump 45% approve, 49% disapprove (-4)
Last week: 43%-52% (-9)
Today: 41%-54% (-13)
State of his coalition:
Morning Consult - “Trump’s approval ratings trend downward”
Here’s what the White House and all of DC is seeing this morning on the front page of the Washington Post - a poll that confirms the fundamental failure of Trump and the Rs to sell their budget to the public (more weakness and buffoonery):
We discussed the new Strength In Numbers/G. Elliott Morris poll that had all sorts of bad data for Trump yesterday. This data was the most ominous for him and the Congressional Rs:
The influential Cook Report is leading with an article this am that draws parallels to Trump’s degraded political standing to 2018, an election we won by 8.6 points nationally. It’s titled:
“Echoes of 2018? What Trump’s First Midterm Tells Us About 2026.
Today’s political environment feels a lot like it did in 2017, when Democrats were poised to harness backlash to President Donald Trump in the midterms.”
Look, Trump continues to do terrible things. One of his supporters attempted to assassinate four Democratic elected officials this weekend in Minnesota, and did end up killing one and gravely wounding another. A US Senator was assaulted by DHS staff. Marines are on the streets of Los Angeles. Hundreds of innocent people remain in a Salvadoran gulag. Somehow, incredibly, Senate Rs have agreed to even deeper Medicaid cuts than the House bill. He’s working to make Russia and China not America great again.
But in recent days we’ve all been reminded sometimes the wheels on the bus go round and round, and sometimes they come flying off. Trump has always been a ridiculous and cartoonish figure. The Emperor never had any clothes. He was always the old man behind the curtain and never the Wizard. And I just get the sense now that the buffoonish, dangerous, sundowning man we all see is now being seen by far more people. A door is opening, people are waking up to the awful reality of Trump and not the right wing noise machine roided version of him. You never know in politics what is the trigger that causes things to change, for new understands to emerge. I have always believed that there was a limit to how fast some of his weak supporters would have buyer’s remorse, and come to realize they got played. In fact I’ve been surprised how quickly and consequentially his numbers have come down. Down, however they are, even on what was his greatest strength - immigration.
Which is why we need to keep working as hard as we can people. He is stumbling, failing, getting panicky, looking weak and pathetic. An opportunity is emerging for us and we need to seize it.
So, now, let’s get to work.
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Stop The Reconciliation Bill - Job One for us this summer remains fighting Trump’s ruinous economic agenda. We need to keep calling every day and demand our leaders vote down the reconciliation bill and roll back Trump’s terrible tariffs. This is the big, definitional battle of the summer and we need keep working it every day. Those of you in states with Republican Senators have a particularly important role to play in the coming weeks.
Get The Military Off Our Streets, Fight Trump’s Inhumane Immigration Escalation - Contact your Rep and Senators to demand they fight Trump’s illegal use of the National Guard and Marines in California. Encourage Democrats at all levels of government to a stand with Governor Newsom and the California - for Trump is not just attacking California, he is attacking the rights and freedoms of all of us.
Own The Fourth, The Flag And Patriotism - To keep our momentum going after this weekend’s No Kings events I encourage to explore ways of Owning The Fourth and make our Independence Day an ugly one for our mad wannabe king. We heard from Hopium community member Deborah Potter last week about her work advancing “resolutions of disapproval” in New Mexico. Will have more on that for you in the coming days.
Stand Up For Science - Sign on to the critically important Bethesda Declaration and watch my interview with Stand Up For Science’s Executive Director Colette Delawalla. Signing on to the Declaration is one concrete way you can take action today.
Note that we did a great court ruling restoring the NIH grants the Bethesda Declaration calls for. Here’s an how one medical journal characterized the ruling:
District Judge William Young, a nominee of Republican President Ronald Reagan, blasted the Trump administration’s NIH cuts as discriminatory and “bearing down on people of color because of their color.”
A federal judge ruled that President Donald Trump’s sweeping terminations of NIH research contracts are not only illegal, but are also a clear manifestation of the government’s “racial discrimination and discrimination against America’s LGBTQ community.”
In a speech after delivering his verdict on Monday, U.S. District Judge William Young in Massachusetts called the administration’s move to cut federal funding for certain research grants “arbitrary and capricious,” going against established government standards, as per the Associated Press. Young blasted the Trump administration, which he said was “bearing down on people of color because of their color,” NBC News reported. “The Constitution will not permit that.”
Here’s a possible script to use to fight the reconciliation bill and tariffs. Use whatever works for you:
I am calling to urge you to vote against the reconciliation bill and to roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs. Together these actions have raised taxes on all of us and will explode the deficit - things Republicans have always told us they did not believe in.
But your agenda is also causing all of us to “pay more and get less” for every day things including our health care; people to loses their jobs; and the economy to slow - all so you can give your rich donors a huge tax break. Your plans will weaken this great country and are an extraordinary betrayal of everything you promised during the campaign - which was to help people like me, not Elon Musk, get ahead.
Your plans are ones of sabotage, surrender and betrayal and I urge you to abandon them and to work with Democrats to find a better way.
Please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!
Grow Hopium - We’ve set a goal of trying to grow the Hopium community from the 151,000 we are now to 175,000 by Labor Day. Do what you can to encourage your friends, family and colleagues to become a summer subscriber to Hopium, free or paid. To encourage the growth of our community annual paid subscriptions are 10% off through Labor Day and we’ve launched a new referral awards program too. So you can earn months towards a paid subscription by bringing in new subscribers to the Hopium community!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - and a fight it truly is - Simon
Hi patriots,
Today marks the seventh anniversary of my husband's death from cancer. It occurred to me that it would be a good day to appeal to my friends to get loud with their elected officials about the cuts to scientific funding. All of us have lost someone to a disease that the NIH is currently investigating. I encourage all of you to reach out to your networks in their names as well. Here's what I posted on FB this morning. Please feel free to adapt this to your own situation if you think it would be helpful. We know the power of making our calls, but most of the public just doesn't understand that -- and frankly doesn't really understand what has happened to funding for medical research.
Tom died seven years ago today of esophageal cancer. It was Father’s Day, Sarah had turned 16 three days earlier, and Alex turned 7 six days later. Peter was 13. It has been a lifetime, and the blink of an eye. I have a beautiful life, and the kids and I are doing well, but we miss Tom every single day. Cancer robbed us of so much.
In the intervening years, I have also lost my Uncle Henning and my cousin Mary to cancer. I have friends fighting cancer right now. It is a terrible disease that exacts a huge toll.
If you cared about Tom, I have a favor to ask of you. Please call your elected officials and ask that they restore full funding for scientific research. Since January, funding for medical research has been cut drastically, and will be reduced by a further 40% next year. If you haven’t told your elected officials that you oppose these cuts, they believe that you consent and approve. So please, make some calls. It takes less than three minutes, and if you have phone anxiety, you can call after 5:00 pm and leave a voicemail. Congress sets the budget and has the constitutional power to reverse the cuts.
99.4% of new cancer drugs approved for use between 2010 and 2019 were the result of government funding. Every $100 million invested generates on average 76 new patents and results in $600 million of economic activity. Scientific research at UNC alone directly supports 11,000 jobs, many of which are now gone or in jeopardy. And it’s not just cancer! The NIH also researches diabetes, heart disease, infectious disease, autoimmune diseases, Parkinsons, Cystic Fibrosis, and on and on, and the NSF supports basic scientific research, which has brought us many medical devices and instruments. Cuts of this magnitude mean that cures for some diseases will not come soon enough for your loved ones. More clinical trials will be halted. We are ceding our worldwide preeminence in medical research to other countries, namely China, which is already recruiting scientists who have lost their jobs at top-notch US universities.
So I ask that you call today for Tom, tomorrow for your Uncle John who died of Alzheimer’s, on Thursday for your neighbor who has diabetes, on Friday for your friend Jennifer who was just diagnosed with lupus, etc. And if you are so inspired, please post this request in honor of your own loved ones. If you want assistance customizing your message, let me know. I’d be happy to help.
Right now our elected officials think the public doesn’t care about science or medical research, and it’s up to us to tell them emphatically that we do care, that we think this is an excellent use of our tax dollars, and that we don’t want other families to suffer the way mine has. My kids don’t get to grow up with their dad, and that is the tragedy of our lives, but with enough research, other kids won’t have to experience this trauma. But only if we act.
To find the contact information for your elected officials, see https://www.congress.gov/members/find-your-member
To further support science, sign the Bethesda Declaration: https://www.standupforscience.net/bethesda-declaration
Self report: called both TX Senators about voting NO on the Reconciliation Bill and taking back responsibility for tariffs before our economy worsens.
Friday, local Democratic groups plan to march to Senator Cornyn’s office in San Antonio and announce via bullhorn why he needs to Vote NO on the horrible budget bill.