82 Comments
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May 6Edited
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Craig, these kinds of rants and expressions of worry/fear etc are not appropriate here and I've taken it down. Hope you understand. Thank you. S

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Hi Simon, it's your Substack but I don't agree with your decision. It may have been a bit ranty but it certainly was a fair comment. What do you think of Biden's approval numbers? It's not good and he's getting killed on the economy. Dumb I know but we are only 6 months out. Surprising to me that you would find my post that off mark and delete it but I won't belabor the point. Carry on... :)

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Craig, these two polls I just shared are the best polls Biden has had this year. The election is moving in our direction. I have addressed all of your points in my posts on Thursday, Friday, and yesterday. Please read them. Thank you.

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And to be clear this is not a place for people to come dump their anxiety and worry for the rest of us to deal with. Those posts will always be taken down. And in the future try to read and engage the arguments here before posting. Thank you.

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Got it thank you Simon. I guess I'm just not quite convinced by your optimism. Thank you.

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Here we do more, worry less. Our heads are down, doing the work we need to do to win.

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Craig, appreciate your maturity in responding to Simon's decisions. A mature interaction all-around. Thanks to both of you.

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Thank you David, I work a lot during the week and had a rare day off. And I was excited to interact with the Hopium community. I will recalibrate my interactions going forward.

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Craig, I too am a worrier. But Hopium does not mean we WILL win, it means we believe if we all pitch in and do the work we CAN win. No guarantees. I find, for me, believing we can win helps me not fall into to being hyper-focused on the negative possibilities. So head down, Forward Ho, stay informed, share the info, donate when you can- money or time to a campaign.

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I am not worried. I am determined.

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Perhaps a bit off the subject: is there any info on when the Georgia Trump trial might begin.

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Fani Willis is pushing for the trial to start this summer. Meanwhile, all the press is about Fani Willis, rather than Trump and the case. Nathan Wade came forward this weekend with “his side” of the story (no idea why anyone thought that was a good idea) and the Georgia Republicans in the State Legislature are - get this - investigating Fan Willis! It’s ridiculous but supports idea to not count on this or any case before the election. We’ve got enough and need to work with what we have now…

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Thank you Simon - I really, really appreciate your optimism - also how you point out quality polls, outliers, etc. Let's focus on the positive!

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Thank you for what you do, and for urging us to do more and worry less.

In the May 4 edition of the NYT, an article on AOC written by Gaby Del Valle stated that the Democrat Party is struggling. This assertion runs counter to the evidence of continued Democrat wins. Any thoughts on this?

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May 6
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So what to do? I share similar sentiments but is canceling my subscription and moving on helping? Engage with authors/editors?

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Simply read with an honest skepticism ... the mainstream media must "play to both sides" for they fear being tormented by professional conservative tormentors

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Gutless!

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Canceled mine and I couldn’t be happier and that was before I learned of the entitled nepo baby brat’s pathetic, greedy behavior. I saw this coming during the Obama administration. And they have the nerve to constantly beg me to resubscribe with the tag line come for INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM. OMG They have no shame.

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I cancelled my Times subscription but maintain my subscription to the Washington Post.

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I have thoughts about this every day and put them right here. Cannot possibly respond to every thing written or said out there every day. Trying to stay focused here and not get blown around by all the bullshit out there.

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Agree, Simon! Watched your recent video to the community from the 1st and thought it was just excellent! I personally took to your comments regarding the protests and situation in the Middle East. As a Jewish man myself, I greatly empathized with your outlook and am stunned more cannot effectively compartmentalize the villainy of Hamas and Netanyahu from the Israeli nation/people as well as, the civilians of Gaza. Students in my view, should be protesting peacefully for peace amongst both groups of innocent civilians and harmoniously recognize the people of Israel and Gaza deserve better in their leadership. Not to mention, I one hundred percent echo your sentiment regarding graduation commencements. I’m still a bit bullish in that the vast majority of them will occur safely and without conflict and that as summer breaks come into view, most will not forfeit that time to take to the streets. There is still such a thing as conventional wisdom and practicality even in a highly unconventional election. Do we really believe these kids will forgo their beach time all summer? I don’t think so!

Anyway, I digress. I do still have concerns a potential invasion into rafah will further escalate the protests here at home but we have no choice but to stick with the data ahead, trust in the prowess and diplomatic governance/urgency of Biden/Harris/Blinken and team, and like you famously say…do more, worry less. Here’s to continuing the work and hoping the scenarios abroad will soon turn with the tide in Biden’s favor just as the crux of this election is beginning to here at home especially, as it continues to fully revolve around women! Cheers!

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One thought for those of us here is that the NYT doesn’t really matter as much as we think it does (and they think it does:) for the election and the campaign. The campaign’s POV is that they are doing incredibly well with NYT readers and other readers of digital news and political sites. The focus is on media that reaches voters who DON”T follow politics (which is most voters). This is where the campaign needs to grow (and where Trump, because he is a celebrity, has an advantage). Really recommend listening to this interview with Rob Flaherty by Jon Favreau. Flaherty is a Biden Harris Deputy Director. It is interesting and reassuring (Rob Flaherty is very smart!). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVtkCefOQzY&list=PLOOwEPgFWm_N42HlCLhqyJ0ZBWr5K1QDM&index=2

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Agree that this👆🏼👆🏼👆🏼👆🏼is an interesting podcast. Made me aware of a part of the Biden campaign I knew nothing about.

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Well, to his credit, Trump is trying hard to give good news to non-MAGA America: He is doing his utmost to get himself jailed for repeatedly and brazenly violating the gag order that Judge Merchan imposed to protect the jury, the court, and the integrity of Trump’s criminal trial.

Trump’s other idea of making "good news" really is quite bizarre: he’s publicly defending Rep. Henry Cuellar, who along with his wife was just federally indicted for corruption, as "a Respected Democrat Congressman"!

But why?? With this, Trump sabotages the narrative that other Republican politicians are trying to build against Cuellar. Heck, even Dean Phillips, that eminently-forgettable Biden challenger, is calling for Cuellar to resign.

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It's like with Bob Menendez, the D's pushed him to resign, but the R's stay he should stay. I think it helps them argue that the Justice Department is corrupt.

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In 2022, Texas had a chance to replace Henry Cuellar with Jessica Cisneros, a progressive attorney and a great candidate. Her campaign was doing very well in the primary and might well have defeated Cuellar – until Pelosi and the Democratic establishment did their utmost to save him. While such efforts on behalf of incumbents are not unusual, in retrospect this may have been a mistake.

(Simon, if this is not the place for such musings, please feel free to remove my post.)

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Simon: Thom Hartmann wants to interview you. Thom@thomhartmenn.com

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How do you know this?

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I spoke to him on Saturday.

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I’m a pretty newsy person and i had not seen those two polls…You would think it was news, right?

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The NBC story is very detailed and nuanced. An accurate summary could be: our borders are under siege from global actors and the government is doing nothing about it. This is what maga does. The problem with the immigration issue is no one is making a positive case for it now -not even progressive Dems. If we can't say in simple definitive terms why immigration is a good thing and should be encouraged rather then stopped then it will be a losing issue for us no matter the reasons or blame. If both sides now agree that illegal immigrants are out of control and a problem, then why not do something. Anything. Put up a useless wall? Fine! At least it's something! This is what keeps maga alive.

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Well like many issues and events in politics immigration is almost always discussed in a context free manner on television. We've neglected our immigration system for nearly 40 years and yet the electorate can only see what's in front of them.

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I need to add here that Democrats have been fighting to modernize our immigration system since 2005 when a bipartisan bill which became known as comprehensive immigration reform was first introduced. It was killed by Republicans in Congress in both the Bush and Obama Administrations, and House Rs just killed a new bipartisan bill introduced a few weeks ago. For 19 years Rs have blocked meaningful reform and modernization, and then blame us for the ongoing problems. As the story points out the challenges we face today at the border are new and different from what came before, and we need to understand how it has changed in order to make law and policy to solve against it. What was true about the border and immigration 20-30-40 years ago is not true today. Central reason I sent this story.

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Yes exactly. Everyone now agrees immigration is a problem (Trump: I told you so!). But why is it a problem? We should be encouraging immigration, not stopping it or even slowing it down. This used to be the US mantra, but not anymore. On immigration we are all maga now. Both sides have given in to the fear of being overrun by foreigners.

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And the inflow of migrants is one of the reasons our economy has performed better than most.

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The Democratic Party has not given into nativist sentiment. I strongly disagree with this. What we are grappling with is a huge increase in people coming into the country, claiming asylum and unlike immigrants from Mexico and the Northern Triangle they do not have extended families to stay with so they are in some cases overloading temporary facilities for them. There is a pragmatic challenge here that the nature of the flow of migrants to our border has changed, and the system we have in place cannot handle it. This is not nativism. This is a serious new policy challenge the Administration has risen to met on their own, got a new bill negotiated with the R Senate, and Trump then killed it because he wants Biden, our border and America to fail.

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Win Arizona, crush Trump - May 14 meeting with Rep. Ruben Gallego & Somos Votantes

https://www.mobilize.us/nope/event/616635/?utm_source=update

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Would you comment on the seemingly rampant election interference the republicans are doing and planning for the rest of the 2024 season?

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I think Simon has responded to this before in previous posts. We know they'll try any and every stunt ( some SLIGHTLY more subtle than others). It's a given. We just have to win by overwhelming enough numbers to make it irrelevant. Then there's election/voting attorneys like Marc Elias, whom are vigilantly on standby ready to take many of the "interference" plans to court. I wouldn't spend too much time down that particular rabbit hole. Election interference is just part of the deal with republicans, like fries with a burger.

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The Democrats CONTROL the election apparatus in EVERY state that matters with the sitting Governorships and the Secretary of State's in WI, MN, MI, PA - and now AZ!

There is no snowballs chance in hell that the wing-nut-kooks have ANY approach in ALL of these states' elections!

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🙌🏻

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I think there are practical actions we should ALL be doing:

1) Check your voter registration online (vote.org, vote411.org) to make sure you are still an active voter, that you are registered at the correct address, and that the name under which they have you registered is 100% correct - no typos, no name changes (e.g., marriage, divorce). Checking now gives you time to correct it!!

2) Get friends and family to check their registration too and encourage young people to register or pre-register if they are eligible (https://www.thecivicscenter.org/map).

3) Make sure you are familiar with voting rules in your state (https://www.vote411.org/voting-rules) which likely have changed since the 2020 or even 2022 election. Then make a concrete plan to vote and help others to do so.

4) Send out reminders to friends and family about voting (e.g., request your mail in ballot now, early voting starts on xx/xx/2024 and polling locations can be found here, reminders to return the mail-in ballot in plenty of time, etc).

5) Become a poll worker (usually paid), poll watcher (volunteer observer), Poll greeter (volunteer handing out literature), voter hotline worker, or a voter protection vounteer doing chase and cure for mail in ballots. (I have actually done all of these except for being a paid poll worker).

6) Vote your entire ballot top to bottom and encourage everyone else to do so too. Sister District found that Democrats leave their ballot blank if they are not familiar with the candidate - while the GOP just votes straight (R). Hence the number of GOP controlled state legislatures in otherwise swing states.

Good resources to learn more about the down ballot and non-partisan races include https://bluevoterguide.org/ (which shows which organizations have endorsed each candidate), voter guides from a local newspaper, endorsements from groups with whom you disagree (so you know who not to vote for!) and www.vote411.org/ballot. (If you drill down into your ballot to the candidates you will find links to candidates websites and social media accounts, as well as answers to survey questions posed by the League of Women Voters.)

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Thank you Simon you have no idea how your posts keep me centered with positives.

I see Tim Scott betraying the American people and he knows it and still lies. It's disheartening to see this. But I read your post over again and i return to a place of Hope.

Thank you for everything I believe in your words and your actions. I do less worrying and more doing! ( I try my best everyday )

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Watching last week's presentation for paid subscribers. Regarding Republicans (e.g., Romney) coming out in support of Biden, this op-ed from Georgia's former Lt. gov Geoff Duncan (R) just posted an hour ago:

https://www.ajc.com/opinion/geoff-duncan-why-im-voting-for-biden-and-other-republicans-should-too/LFLE5YWCBBA6VDGJAJKMNPCDKQ/

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And the dam begins to burst!

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this is worth reading. Thanks for sharing Pete.

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Wait did Mittens come out and say he's voting for Biden? Apologies if I missed a big news story.

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I don't know that he's said that, but I do know that he's said that he can't/won't vote for Trump.

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The news about immigration is unsurprising if you follow the news (and the physics) of global climate change. The middle chunk of the planet, where most humans live, is becoming increasingly unlivable. All the more reason to get and keep people who understand science in our government.

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Keir Starmer is kind of a silver fox. Handsome guy. He has strong facial features, a slight resemblance to David Hasselhof, without being a cliche of himself, the way "the Hof" is.

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“Don’t hassle the Starmer” doesn’t quite scan, though…

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Thank you sir…..there is #Joementum happening if you want to see it….and I do 🇺🇸😎

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