Encouraging Biden Polls, UK Labour Keeps Winning, How Migrant Flows To The Border Are Changing

Our next Hopium-wide get together is May 22nd - register today!

May 06, 2024

Happy Monday all. Got a few things for you today:

Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November - In case you didn’t catch yesterday’s post, we had a very good week of polling with two high-quality, independent polls showing Biden with likely voter leads of 4 and 5 points:

ABC News Biden 49%-Trump 45% (+4)
NPR/Marist Biden 52%-Trump 47% (+5)

For more on my latest thinking about the 2024 election:

New poll analysis - Biden Leads 49%-45% In New ABC Poll
New comprehensive video presentation, written analysis - My Latest Take on The 2024 Election
Trump Is The Ugliest Political Thing We’ve Ever Seen - A detailed look at the historic awfulness of Trump, and the very real world struggles MAGA is having in mounting serious political campaigns across the US.
Six Things Voters Are Going To Learn About Trump That Will Make It Very Hard For Him To Win - In the coming months voters are going to learn six new things about Trump they didn’t know before, and any of one of these six things will make it very hard for him to win. Overcoming all six I think is not something this deeply diminished and dangerous man will be able to do.

I was quoted in a major Guardian story on the US election, six months out:

Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist, said: “He is far more extreme and dangerous than he was in 2020. His performance on the stump is significantly degraded and disturbing and he’s going to be on trial for many months, which is going to further erode his strongman image and his standing with the public.
“He doesn’t have any way to make positive news. Donald Trump’s central way that he’s making positive news is by staying out of jail. I don’t think that’s going to be very effective for the six months.”
……Some Democrats remain optimistic, noting the party’s overperformance in the midterms and other recent elections, as well as Biden’s huge fundraising advantage. Rosenberg said: “It’s a close, competitive election, but I would much rather be us than them.
“Over time, as voters check in and start paying more attention, the basic contrast between Biden being a successful president leading the country through challenging times and a guy who’s a real threat to many of the things we all hold dear will work in our favour and we’ll win. But we have a lot of work to do and a long way to go in this election. A lot is going to happen and a lot is going to change.”

Our friends in UK Labour racked up some big wins last week:

LONDON (AP) — Britain’s governing Conservative Party suffered heavy losses in local election results Friday, further cementing expectations that the Labour Party will return to power after 14 years in a U.K. general election that will take place in the coming months.
Labour won control of councils in England that the party hasn’t held for decades, and was successful in a special election for a seat in Parliament.
If those results are repeated in the general election, it would lead to one of the Conservatives’ biggest-ever defeats.

The raging dumpster fire that is the Republican Party is burning a little hotter today…..

Upcoming Events - Got a few things coming up:

Wed, May 22nd, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Community Wide Get Together w/Simon - Register
Thur, June 20th Evening - Simon speaks in person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Event (Madison) - more details soon
Fri/Sat, June 28-29 - Simon speaks in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit, Tyson’s Corner, VA - More info, register

I will also note that I’ve been a little slow at getting back to those who’ve requested me for events for this summer. Between my daughter’s lacrosse play offs and graduation festivities this spring and some critical travel dates that are still getting ironed out I’ve been unable to commit to as many events as I hoped. Will try to get back to everyone this week - appreciate the patience all!

Tim Scott Will Not Commit to Accepting 2024 Election Results - I’ve watched this video a few times. A simple question, a series of ridiculous answers:

How Migrant Flows To The US Border Are Changing - Many have asked for more information and background on our immigration and border challenges. A new NBC News article does a very good explaining how the flows to the border have changed in recent years, and why it is clear we need new law to tackle these new realities. I would encourage folks to read the entire article. Here’s an excerpt:

An NBC News analysis of newly released data from the Department of Homeland Security shows a fundamental shift. Before the pandemic, roughly 9 in 10 migrants crossing the border illegally (that is, between ports of entry) came from Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador — the four countries closest to the border. Those countries no longer hold the majority: As of 2023, for the first time since the U.S. has collected such data, half of all migrants who cross the border now come from elsewhere globally.
The greatest numbers have come from countries farther away in the Americas that have never before sent migrants to the border at this scale. In the 2019 fiscal year, for example, the number of Colombians apprehended illegally crossing the border was 400. In fiscal 2023, it exploded to 154,080 — a nearly four-hundred-fold increase.
But they come, too, from countries in Africa, Eastern Europe and every region in Asia. There have been dramatic increases in the number of migrants from the world’s most populous countries: Between fiscal 2019 and 2023, the number of migrants from China and India grew more than elevenfold and fivefold, respectively. And some countries that previously sent negligible numbers of migrants to the U.S. border have seen staggering increases. In fiscal 2019, the total number of people from the northwest African nation of Mauritania apprehended at the border was 20. Four years later, that number was 15,260. For migrants from Turkey, the number went from 60 to 15,430. The list goes on: More than 50 nationalities saw apprehensions multiplied by a hundred or more.

Hopium Housekeeping - Check The Status Of Your Subscription/Renewal - Friends there is an easy way to check on the status of your subscription here at Hopium. Just head here, Substack.com/settings. Here you can make sure your payment information is up to date and paid subscriber status is current, make changes on how you receive Hopium each day and more.

Do More, Worry Less - We are still raising money for and supporting three critical projects:

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in the fight with all of you - Simon

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

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