Simon - thanks as usual. Good stuff. Morale-building. I hope you're getting some sleep. :-)
I was gobsmacked by both poll results - Trump almost even with Biden (bad, and almost incomprehensible), and positions on abortion (better than I had thought, and the Republican numbers were surprising and gratifying). It would be interesting to see a cross-reference with religion--or religiosity. I'm guessing the decline in religiosity has tilted the field in pro-choice direction.
Incredible data. Should make us all feel more secure and empowered to TAKE & GAIN territory and get new voters voting!
On this, in case you don’t follow BTC, Marc Elias talking about the 4 Black Opportunity districts in 4 south states for 2024! Even McCarthy understands he can’t hold his power.
For me, it was always abortion as the reason I could not vote for a Republican. Now, when you add treason to the mix, it should be clear to more people. The two together? I like to think that 2024 is going to be a wipeout, but we've ridden this carnival ride before.
The data look good BUT -- and it's a huge but -- they don't address the fact that we need to be enormously concerned about the dirty tricks that have already taken place (are the voting systems secure or have they been breached by MAGA allies?) and those still to come (such as internet voting), not to mention foreign interference.
I keep returning to one overriding point.....these polls are showing Trump already near his ceiling, but showing Biden near his floor.
When you’re willing to play such an extreme strategy, and radicalize your base, you create a relatively high floor of support for yourself because of how addicted your base gets to the constant reinforcement of their strongest biases....but you simultaneously create a fairly low ceiling of support as well because your radical tone and temperament is unattractive and unacceptable not only to your ideological opponents, but also to voters who don’t have a strong pull one way or another and just generally have an aversion to politics and politicians.
Point is, Biden has a ceiling of potential support as high as 55-60% and at some point our family including our left flank and those who just can’t quit obsessing about how we should run a mythical “younger” candidate in his place will give him a second and more fair look because it will become clear that he IS the alternative to a second Trump Administration......at that time, I believe his very impressive governing record will prove to be more persuasive than it has been to date and you’ll see meaningful movement in his direction.
Trump on the other hand is likely near his ceiling of support already..... I agree with Simon that there’s nearly no scenario where he could gain new voting share from his 2020 performance (around 47%),and it’s actually much more likely he loses a point or two because of natural attrition in the Republican voter base, 8 million+ new young people eligible to vote, and the simple fact that the most appalling behavior by far he AND the GOP at large have displayed since he came down the Trump Tower escalator in 2015 has been SINCE votes were cast in the 2020 election, which had he done in advance of that election could easily have cost him millions of the votes he received as the sitting incumbent president.
I’m not cocky nor am I complacent....we need to do our work. But if we do, I firmly believe we’re going to kick their asses.
I'm so glad to see the word "treason" beging applied to Republican behavior since 2020 (and earlier but that is less clear). For the true meaning of the word to sink in, I think it has to be repeated again and again and become one of the foundational messaging points for Democrats.
Simon - thanks as usual. Good stuff. Morale-building. I hope you're getting some sleep. :-)
I was gobsmacked by both poll results - Trump almost even with Biden (bad, and almost incomprehensible), and positions on abortion (better than I had thought, and the Republican numbers were surprising and gratifying). It would be interesting to see a cross-reference with religion--or religiosity. I'm guessing the decline in religiosity has tilted the field in pro-choice direction.
Incredible data. Should make us all feel more secure and empowered to TAKE & GAIN territory and get new voters voting!
On this, in case you don’t follow BTC, Marc Elias talking about the 4 Black Opportunity districts in 4 south states for 2024! Even McCarthy understands he can’t hold his power.
https://youtu.be/rJwMDyEpNNY
For me, it was always abortion as the reason I could not vote for a Republican. Now, when you add treason to the mix, it should be clear to more people. The two together? I like to think that 2024 is going to be a wipeout, but we've ridden this carnival ride before.
The data look good BUT -- and it's a huge but -- they don't address the fact that we need to be enormously concerned about the dirty tricks that have already taken place (are the voting systems secure or have they been breached by MAGA allies?) and those still to come (such as internet voting), not to mention foreign interference.
I keep returning to one overriding point.....these polls are showing Trump already near his ceiling, but showing Biden near his floor.
When you’re willing to play such an extreme strategy, and radicalize your base, you create a relatively high floor of support for yourself because of how addicted your base gets to the constant reinforcement of their strongest biases....but you simultaneously create a fairly low ceiling of support as well because your radical tone and temperament is unattractive and unacceptable not only to your ideological opponents, but also to voters who don’t have a strong pull one way or another and just generally have an aversion to politics and politicians.
Point is, Biden has a ceiling of potential support as high as 55-60% and at some point our family including our left flank and those who just can’t quit obsessing about how we should run a mythical “younger” candidate in his place will give him a second and more fair look because it will become clear that he IS the alternative to a second Trump Administration......at that time, I believe his very impressive governing record will prove to be more persuasive than it has been to date and you’ll see meaningful movement in his direction.
Trump on the other hand is likely near his ceiling of support already..... I agree with Simon that there’s nearly no scenario where he could gain new voting share from his 2020 performance (around 47%),and it’s actually much more likely he loses a point or two because of natural attrition in the Republican voter base, 8 million+ new young people eligible to vote, and the simple fact that the most appalling behavior by far he AND the GOP at large have displayed since he came down the Trump Tower escalator in 2015 has been SINCE votes were cast in the 2020 election, which had he done in advance of that election could easily have cost him millions of the votes he received as the sitting incumbent president.
I’m not cocky nor am I complacent....we need to do our work. But if we do, I firmly believe we’re going to kick their asses.
I'm so glad to see the word "treason" beging applied to Republican behavior since 2020 (and earlier but that is less clear). For the true meaning of the word to sink in, I think it has to be repeated again and again and become one of the foundational messaging points for Democrats.
Great article Simon!