Last night’s Hopium meet (and birthday!) was terrific! I encourage everyone to watch the video. Great interview with Governor Gavin Newsom. Also, Simon offered perhaps the best analysis I’ve seen of President Biden’s intention and challenges with regards to influencing Netanyahu’s choices in the war in Gaza.
One more thing: Here is an analysis of another point Simon touched on: How Trump’s Super Tuesday results were a drastic under-performance compared to the polls.
If I was looking for a way to nefariously influence the national narrative, I can think of no more cost-effective way than starting a "polling firm" – and putting my thumb on the scale. And with frequently-released polls so as to have maximum impact on the polling averages. (And if I remove my thumb from the scale just before the election, my "polls" will be in line with others.)
Moreover, I can inspire national negative headlines by asking such questions as: "Do you think Joe Biden is too old to be an effective president?" (Without, of course, asking a similar question about Donald Trump.)
Thank you, Simon for your consistently excellent presentations and guests.
Your comments on Gaza are even-handed and insightful.
I do want to note that Trump said on air in recent days that Israel has to “finish the problem” in Gaza and that the Hamas attack was Biden's fault.
At the same time, he has refused to condemn Putin in any way as it conducts war crimes in Ukraine, kills dissidents and, just yesterday, nearly killed President Zelenskyy and the Prime Minister of Greece. And while Russia supports Iran and Hezbollah.
In other words, returning Trump to power would create chaos and end US influence in the world and it would be of no help to a stable peace in Middle East or any region of the world.
Gavin Newsom has charisma. I enjoyed his visit to the year one Hopium birthday party.
I think one of the main reasons Trump talks down America is because he's aligned with Putin. He's a fake savior, out to destroy his country if it means padding his pockets with Russian rubles and any other dirty money coming his way. Traitor and fraud, but great propagandist who knows how to read his audience and give them what they want, and unfortunately then some.
I’m more and more convinced the kompromat Vlad Putin has on Trump is far worse than just pee-pee videos.
That said, the best-case scenario is that Agent Orange is an unwitting (and witless) agent of influence. Perhaps with this type of amoral narcissist, the most accurate is this old adage:
"If you’ve got ’em by their wallet, their hearts and minds will follow."
It was a very exciting surprise to have Gov. Newsom join us in our monthly subscriber gathering! Thanks so much Simon. It helped me to realize there are definitely perks having a well known & connected strategist in our grassroots activist 'family'. I feel more connected than ever and find my cost to be a yearly subscriber a bargain! AND I am definitely more informed (and smarter :-) ) too!
Nice surprise last night listening to Gov. Newsom. We have some very powerful communicators on our side who can take down the lies in a nano second.
Something I saw this morning during the break from Morning Joe had me thinking about AI and how it will be used in the election. I've already seen a couple of pictures on Twitter of Trump with black folks around him (lol) that has been called out and which I feel we should repost but with a message attached about AI being used to promote lies.
This morning during the break of Morning Joe an ad showed up of Pres. Biden needing to stop speaking because he was stumbling with his words and asking to start over again. The ad went on to talk about his decline and whether we should have him leading our country. It was obviously badly edited because I could see the cuts that were made. I turned it off before the end so I don't know who it was from but it made me think about what we might see with TV ads especially now that we are in the era of AI.
Found this article recently posted about AI companies. As if we don't have enough to battle with when it comes to the media misinforming the public, we now have to be vigilant when it comes to AI.
"A new and growing crop of AI tools offers the ability to quickly and easily generate compelling and realistic text and images, and increasingly audio and video. Lawmakers, civil society groups and even tech leaders themselves have raised alarms that the misuse of such tools could cause confusion and chaos for voters."
I would like to see Team Biden recruit the support of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Arnie enjoys high credibility across many demographics, especially amongst male and conservative voters. And he is an awesome communicator! Here are a few examples:
What a great interview! You never fail to inspire action. My first action today after listening to the entire Hopium podcast this morning was to become a paying member.
I’m in the middle of a huge move from Florida to the North Woods of Wisconsin. Once I’m resettled (May is the plan), then I’ll donate my time and experience to the elections ahead.
I can’t think of a better way to put my MA in Political Campaign Management and 30 years of grassroots organizing to use, than to help the Democratic Party in its campaigns this year.
Happy birthday to Hopium and thank you for all that you do for our country. ❤️
If you woud be interested in participating in a Zoom letter writing party to get you started, please add a comment here and please give an idea of your availabity - week day, week night, Saturday or Sunday and please add your Time Zone!!
What is your concern about seeing the letters first? I'm confused.
If you wrote any letters for the VA Social or Political campaigns in 2023 - not the labs, these are very similar.
Brief intro, then "I vote because...."
{space for volunteer message about why they vote }
Then some info on other races besides presidential in that state - so state specific
Then 2 QR codes to see what's on your ballot and how to vote
Then conclusion and space for signature
The difference between Social and Political is simply who is targeted -
the form part of the letter is the same.
The minimum number of voters you need to adopt is only 5, so that may be the easiest way to see the entire letter if you think it is important before deciding to participate.
Simon: This is a very interesting piece by Dave Weigel. David Howlett
Semafor
Pro-Haley super PAC relaunches as ‘Haley Voters for Biden’
David Weigel
Wed, March 6, 2024 at 10:16 AM MST·3 min read 36
The News
A super PAC that urged non-Republicans to cast primary votes for Nikki Haley is pivoting to November, urging Haley’s voters to support President Joe Biden. Starting today, Primary Pivot will become Haley Voters for Biden, and urge anyone who supported Haley in a swing state to stick with the president in November.
“This is an effort from people who have actually supported Nikki Haley to try to guide as many of them as possible toward the candidate that respects democracy, even if they may disagree with him politically,” said Primary Pivot co-founder Robert Schwartz.
In a statement, Primary Pivot said it would focus on Haley voters in states where they could be counted — nearly 300,000 in Michigan, and nearly 250,000 in North Carolina. The super PAC, which started by urging New Hampshire Democrats to temporarily switch their registrations, spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to activate potential Haley voters in South Carolina and Super Tuesday states.
It wasn’t enough to deliver a win, outside of Vermont, where Haley picked up votes from non-Republicans in the state’s open primary. Schwartz hoped that Trump’s reaction to that — a Truth Social post denouncing “the fact that Democrats, for reasons unknown, are allowed to vote in Vermont” — would fuel the new campaign.
“We wanted to start this effort as soon as possible to lock in that kind of resentment toward the way Trump and MAGA have treated Haley voters,” he said.
David’s view
Haley’s decision to quit the race, but not endorse Trump, was encouraging for the Biden campaign, especially as Trump continues to denigrate her. “There is a place for them in my campaign,” the president said in a statement on Wednesday, suggesting common ground on protecting democracy, encouraging civility, and maintaining America’s NATO commitments.
Plenty of her voters went to the polls to protest Trump, unhappily confident that the former president was going to beat Haley anyway. But Schwartz really wanted Haley to win, seeing Trump as a unique threat and Haley as a rallying point for a united front to stop him.
That was Plan A, and it didn’t work. Plan B starts with the Haley voters who told exit pollsters that they did not want to support the GOP nominee if their candidate lost. On Tuesday, that was 48% of Haley’s supporters in California, 62% in North Carolina, and 76% in Virginia.
“Voting for Haley today meant I can vote twice in 2024 against Trump,” Bill Kristol posted on X, describing the vote as a “temporary re-embrace of my ex-party.”
Covering Haley last month, I met a decent number of voters who took Primary Pivot’s advice — or agreed with it but weren’t actually contacted by the PAC. Some Haley voters, said Schwartz, were Democrats who didn’t really need a new push from them. But some were Republicans who needed to be convinced to switch sides this year, which was Schwartz’s new mission.
“We’ll be able to get their voter files, their location in these states, their education level, their income level — whether they live in the suburbs, their voting history, all of that,” he said. “We’re going to micro-target these people as much as possible.”
Room for Disagreement
There’s a lot of skepticism about how many Haley voters are truly swing voters. In New York Magazine, Ed Kilgore looks at the polls and sees evidence that Trump-skeptical Haley supporters “are not flippable swing voters Trump would sacrifice, but may instead be 2020 Biden voters who weren’t really on the table for Trump at all, from the get-go.”
Notable
The New York Times spoke with dozens of Haley voters about what comes next. They found many fell into the “double hater” camp — disliking Trump, but also unenthusiastic or hostile towards Biden.
I would love to see you encouraging your followers to support the Democratic candidate in Texas, Colin Allred, who just won the primary for the Senate seat currently held by Ted Cruz. Some recent polls show the race tied or very close. It would be so great to see Ted Cruz retired from our lives (maybe to Cancun).
So happy to be a part of this community. Despite the problems with our political system it gives many of of us agency and the ability to indirectly wield political power. Simon you help us change that energy for maximum benefit.
If anyone wants to get started early - before Simon posts volunteer opportunities - for helping out Ruben Gallego, Activate America has postcard campaigns going on already for him. You can sign up for as many or as few addresses as you want, and there are two scripts to choose from (health care costs or repro rights). Currently the deadline is "within 3-4 weeks". (I always check before committing to make sure I have the bandwidth.)
If Biden wants to engage the "movement like charisma" (think JFK) there are two significant actions he should announce tonight: 1. Giving frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. 2. Redirect Israel defense funding to protect, feed, and rebuild Gaza.
Simon, food for thought. Not sure if he would be interested, but since you have established a good rapport and relationship with Lawrence O’Donnell & his show, it would be super fun to have him make an appearance in conversation with you here at Hopium. He’s such a sharp analyst and has a point of view that always feels unique from other mainstream commentators. Anyway, just thought I’d float it as an idea possibly worth exploring. Keep up the great work….it’s been very rewarding to have this as a “home base” for my political engagement and activity…..really enjoy the daily conversations with everyone here in the comments!
Last night’s Hopium meet (and birthday!) was terrific! I encourage everyone to watch the video. Great interview with Governor Gavin Newsom. Also, Simon offered perhaps the best analysis I’ve seen of President Biden’s intention and challenges with regards to influencing Netanyahu’s choices in the war in Gaza.
One more thing: Here is an analysis of another point Simon touched on: How Trump’s Super Tuesday results were a drastic under-performance compared to the polls.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/6/2227952/-The-538-GOP-Super-Tuesday-poll-averages-Way-way-off-and-systematically-overestimating-Trump-data
Who woulda thunk that polls could be so inaccurate? /s
If I was looking for a way to nefariously influence the national narrative, I can think of no more cost-effective way than starting a "polling firm" – and putting my thumb on the scale. And with frequently-released polls so as to have maximum impact on the polling averages. (And if I remove my thumb from the scale just before the election, my "polls" will be in line with others.)
Moreover, I can inspire national negative headlines by asking such questions as: "Do you think Joe Biden is too old to be an effective president?" (Without, of course, asking a similar question about Donald Trump.)
And then write for The NY Times!
Thank you, Simon for your consistently excellent presentations and guests.
Your comments on Gaza are even-handed and insightful.
I do want to note that Trump said on air in recent days that Israel has to “finish the problem” in Gaza and that the Hamas attack was Biden's fault.
At the same time, he has refused to condemn Putin in any way as it conducts war crimes in Ukraine, kills dissidents and, just yesterday, nearly killed President Zelenskyy and the Prime Minister of Greece. And while Russia supports Iran and Hezbollah.
In other words, returning Trump to power would create chaos and end US influence in the world and it would be of no help to a stable peace in Middle East or any region of the world.
Some of the posters over there still swear by polling
Gavin Newsom has charisma. I enjoyed his visit to the year one Hopium birthday party.
I think one of the main reasons Trump talks down America is because he's aligned with Putin. He's a fake savior, out to destroy his country if it means padding his pockets with Russian rubles and any other dirty money coming his way. Traitor and fraud, but great propagandist who knows how to read his audience and give them what they want, and unfortunately then some.
I’m more and more convinced the kompromat Vlad Putin has on Trump is far worse than just pee-pee videos.
That said, the best-case scenario is that Agent Orange is an unwitting (and witless) agent of influence. Perhaps with this type of amoral narcissist, the most accurate is this old adage:
"If you’ve got ’em by their wallet, their hearts and minds will follow."
True. Putin isn’t playing Trump, he OWNS HIM.
It was a very exciting surprise to have Gov. Newsom join us in our monthly subscriber gathering! Thanks so much Simon. It helped me to realize there are definitely perks having a well known & connected strategist in our grassroots activist 'family'. I feel more connected than ever and find my cost to be a yearly subscriber a bargain! AND I am definitely more informed (and smarter :-) ) too!
Happy Birthday, Hopium!
Nice surprise last night listening to Gov. Newsom. We have some very powerful communicators on our side who can take down the lies in a nano second.
Something I saw this morning during the break from Morning Joe had me thinking about AI and how it will be used in the election. I've already seen a couple of pictures on Twitter of Trump with black folks around him (lol) that has been called out and which I feel we should repost but with a message attached about AI being used to promote lies.
This morning during the break of Morning Joe an ad showed up of Pres. Biden needing to stop speaking because he was stumbling with his words and asking to start over again. The ad went on to talk about his decline and whether we should have him leading our country. It was obviously badly edited because I could see the cuts that were made. I turned it off before the end so I don't know who it was from but it made me think about what we might see with TV ads especially now that we are in the era of AI.
Found this article recently posted about AI companies. As if we don't have enough to battle with when it comes to the media misinforming the public, we now have to be vigilant when it comes to AI.
"A new and growing crop of AI tools offers the ability to quickly and easily generate compelling and realistic text and images, and increasingly audio and video. Lawmakers, civil society groups and even tech leaders themselves have raised alarms that the misuse of such tools could cause confusion and chaos for voters."
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/06/tech/ai-images-election-misinformation/index.html
I would like to see Team Biden recruit the support of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Arnie enjoys high credibility across many demographics, especially amongst male and conservative voters. And he is an awesome communicator! Here are a few examples:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsETTn7DehI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAWvl-g_6rg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_P-0I6sAck
PS. Perhaps Arnold Schwarzenegger can be a future Hopium guest?
Always a fan of Arnie. The GOAT!
What a great interview! You never fail to inspire action. My first action today after listening to the entire Hopium podcast this morning was to become a paying member.
I’m in the middle of a huge move from Florida to the North Woods of Wisconsin. Once I’m resettled (May is the plan), then I’ll donate my time and experience to the elections ahead.
I can’t think of a better way to put my MA in Political Campaign Management and 30 years of grassroots organizing to use, than to help the Democratic Party in its campaigns this year.
Happy birthday to Hopium and thank you for all that you do for our country. ❤️
Reminder in case you missed my post yesterday:
Initial Vote Forward campaigns just dropped:
8 states - AZ, GA, MI, NV, NH, NC, PA and WI
2 campaigns for each state - Social and Political - see write up here:
https://help.votefwd.org/article/81-whats-the-difference-between-priority-social-and-political-campaigns
If you aren't an approved writer yet go here: https://votefwd.org/instructions
If you woud be interested in participating in a Zoom letter writing party to get you started, please add a comment here and please give an idea of your availabity - week day, week night, Saturday or Sunday and please add your Time Zone!!
Been writing letters with VF since 2022, but still haven't figured out a way to see the letters before I select the campaign. Is that possible?
What is your concern about seeing the letters first? I'm confused.
If you wrote any letters for the VA Social or Political campaigns in 2023 - not the labs, these are very similar.
Brief intro, then "I vote because...."
{space for volunteer message about why they vote }
Then some info on other races besides presidential in that state - so state specific
Then 2 QR codes to see what's on your ballot and how to vote
Then conclusion and space for signature
The difference between Social and Political is simply who is targeted -
the form part of the letter is the same.
The minimum number of voters you need to adopt is only 5, so that may be the easiest way to see the entire letter if you think it is important before deciding to participate.
Thanks.
Simon: This is a very interesting piece by Dave Weigel. David Howlett
Semafor
Pro-Haley super PAC relaunches as ‘Haley Voters for Biden’
David Weigel
Wed, March 6, 2024 at 10:16 AM MST·3 min read 36
The News
A super PAC that urged non-Republicans to cast primary votes for Nikki Haley is pivoting to November, urging Haley’s voters to support President Joe Biden. Starting today, Primary Pivot will become Haley Voters for Biden, and urge anyone who supported Haley in a swing state to stick with the president in November.
“This is an effort from people who have actually supported Nikki Haley to try to guide as many of them as possible toward the candidate that respects democracy, even if they may disagree with him politically,” said Primary Pivot co-founder Robert Schwartz.
In a statement, Primary Pivot said it would focus on Haley voters in states where they could be counted — nearly 300,000 in Michigan, and nearly 250,000 in North Carolina. The super PAC, which started by urging New Hampshire Democrats to temporarily switch their registrations, spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to activate potential Haley voters in South Carolina and Super Tuesday states.
It wasn’t enough to deliver a win, outside of Vermont, where Haley picked up votes from non-Republicans in the state’s open primary. Schwartz hoped that Trump’s reaction to that — a Truth Social post denouncing “the fact that Democrats, for reasons unknown, are allowed to vote in Vermont” — would fuel the new campaign.
“We wanted to start this effort as soon as possible to lock in that kind of resentment toward the way Trump and MAGA have treated Haley voters,” he said.
David’s view
Haley’s decision to quit the race, but not endorse Trump, was encouraging for the Biden campaign, especially as Trump continues to denigrate her. “There is a place for them in my campaign,” the president said in a statement on Wednesday, suggesting common ground on protecting democracy, encouraging civility, and maintaining America’s NATO commitments.
Plenty of her voters went to the polls to protest Trump, unhappily confident that the former president was going to beat Haley anyway. But Schwartz really wanted Haley to win, seeing Trump as a unique threat and Haley as a rallying point for a united front to stop him.
That was Plan A, and it didn’t work. Plan B starts with the Haley voters who told exit pollsters that they did not want to support the GOP nominee if their candidate lost. On Tuesday, that was 48% of Haley’s supporters in California, 62% in North Carolina, and 76% in Virginia.
“Voting for Haley today meant I can vote twice in 2024 against Trump,” Bill Kristol posted on X, describing the vote as a “temporary re-embrace of my ex-party.”
Covering Haley last month, I met a decent number of voters who took Primary Pivot’s advice — or agreed with it but weren’t actually contacted by the PAC. Some Haley voters, said Schwartz, were Democrats who didn’t really need a new push from them. But some were Republicans who needed to be convinced to switch sides this year, which was Schwartz’s new mission.
“We’ll be able to get their voter files, their location in these states, their education level, their income level — whether they live in the suburbs, their voting history, all of that,” he said. “We’re going to micro-target these people as much as possible.”
Room for Disagreement
There’s a lot of skepticism about how many Haley voters are truly swing voters. In New York Magazine, Ed Kilgore looks at the polls and sees evidence that Trump-skeptical Haley supporters “are not flippable swing voters Trump would sacrifice, but may instead be 2020 Biden voters who weren’t really on the table for Trump at all, from the get-go.”
Notable
The New York Times spoke with dozens of Haley voters about what comes next. They found many fell into the “double hater” camp — disliking Trump, but also unenthusiastic or hostile towards Biden.
Someone recently asked, in regard to MAGA extremism with voter suppression, anti-abortion, anti- LGBTQ, pro-Russia, etc, what have we become?
I thought about that.
I don’t think we’ve “become” anything.
I think there are factions of our society that have always “been.”
When trump came along he turned the lights off and allowed - no, encouraged - the cockroaches to run wild.
Our job now is to turn the lights back on. 💪💙
Happy Birthday Hopium!
You are a perfect example of an acorn that’s growing into a mighty tree!
Lovely way to sum it up….also I am a huge Billy Joel fan and his new single is called “Turn the Lights Back On”, so…. 😁😎🎹🎶🇺🇸
I would love to see you encouraging your followers to support the Democratic candidate in Texas, Colin Allred, who just won the primary for the Senate seat currently held by Ted Cruz. Some recent polls show the race tied or very close. It would be so great to see Ted Cruz retired from our lives (maybe to Cancun).
Seth Myers did a great “reintroduction” to Trump that really lays out, in under 2 minutes, how insane it is that he’s a presidential candidate.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C4N6vPkAYog/?igsh=aDl1YmhqZ3Z0eDI2
💙 Seth.Great link to share !
For those worried about President Biden's age:
Roger S. Penske is 84 and not expected to stop leading Enterprise Products Partners (#89 in Fortune 500)
Warren E. Buffett is 91 and no one is asking him to leave Berkshire Hathaway because he's too old.
The business community seems to appreciate the value of longevity in a position of authority.
So happy to be a part of this community. Despite the problems with our political system it gives many of of us agency and the ability to indirectly wield political power. Simon you help us change that energy for maximum benefit.
If anyone wants to get started early - before Simon posts volunteer opportunities - for helping out Ruben Gallego, Activate America has postcard campaigns going on already for him. You can sign up for as many or as few addresses as you want, and there are two scripts to choose from (health care costs or repro rights). Currently the deadline is "within 3-4 weeks". (I always check before committing to make sure I have the bandwidth.)
https://www.activateamerica.vote/postcards
If Biden wants to engage the "movement like charisma" (think JFK) there are two significant actions he should announce tonight: 1. Giving frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. 2. Redirect Israel defense funding to protect, feed, and rebuild Gaza.
Simon, food for thought. Not sure if he would be interested, but since you have established a good rapport and relationship with Lawrence O’Donnell & his show, it would be super fun to have him make an appearance in conversation with you here at Hopium. He’s such a sharp analyst and has a point of view that always feels unique from other mainstream commentators. Anyway, just thought I’d float it as an idea possibly worth exploring. Keep up the great work….it’s been very rewarding to have this as a “home base” for my political engagement and activity…..really enjoy the daily conversations with everyone here in the comments!
I second that !