My apologies. Just my nerves that have been getting to me. I'm sure you can see the shift throughout the trajectory of my posts over the last month so I will be sure to stay on top of self-editing. This is the Jewish New Year and I owe it to myself to continue tapping back into my optimistic instincts that brought me to this community in the first place. Please know, I'm deeply grateful for all you do and the extraordinary content you provide. I like to think I'm an intuitive person by nature but I'm not sure how effectively I'd get through this election cycle without your guidance to the community, the wisdom of Allan Lichtman, Lincoln Project, Mark Elias, Lawrence O'Donnell, Andrew Weisman, Mary McCord, Glen Kirschner, and Brian Tyler Cohen just to name a select but mighty few. I hope I have the pleasure of meeting you in person some day and thanking you again in person.... when Kamala is President and Angela Alsobrooks is my State Senator!!! Onward!
On the other hand, I don't feel we've been hurt. I was very concerned Walz would bomb, or flub (because he apparently is not a strong debater), and thankfully he didn't. Most seem to think VP debates are a blip in elections. Deep breaths.....
I don’t agree - Walz helped us more than Vance helped Trump. Walz’s favorables went up (well beyond Vance) and - in the focus groups from NBC and CNN and he - most importantly - got shareable moments for the campaign (per Vance’s II thought you weren’t going to fact check this and Jan 6). Vance mainly helped himself - his future in the GOP - rather than Trump.
According to PBS, undecided voters they spoke with were turned off by jd's position on women's constitutional rights, how he downplayed the insurrection and said there was a peaceful transfer of power, and his inability to say that trump lost the election or commit to accepting election results. jd's words and actions were seen as a threat to our democracy.
...and whatever you do, don't pay attention to Polymarket! (Sorry, I saw your last comment before you deleted it lol.) Seriously, it's just a bunch of random regular people screwing around with their extra dollars on the weekend. It has no relation to what is happening in reality, and I think we all know that.
I'm worried about you, bro! You are seriously causing yourself unneeded stress. Go outside instead. We got this!
Thank you Will. Elections have always made me a complete wreck. I'll be honest I don't know where I'd be without this community. The other day at work, I was hyperventilating, and tensing up just thinking about this. Seriously I appreciate it man.
"Vance picked up 11 points in his favorability rating after the debate." Um, Dan... so did Walz. So does literally every VP candidate after each debate. Vance was still viewed less favorably AFTER picking up those points than Walz was BEFORE ALSO seeing his favorables rise. Our #2 guy is more popular than their #2 guy, period. Context matters.
Our job right now is not to find a way to psychically cleanse America of its penchant for charlatans, by making everyone smarter so that we never have to worry about liars again. That is impossible. (To quote Stephen Colbert, "truth has a well-known liberal bias.") Our job is to do the possible, which is to win this election. We are doing a good job of that thus far. It doesn't matter to what degree of unpopular the liars are, as long as our guys are more popular. Yeah, some undecided voters are dumb and will believe the lies. As long as most won't, we win. This has been the case for literally forever.
We need to stop expecting that our candidates will be these people who are such unbelievably brilliant truth-tellers that they can dispel every lie and evasion any Republican throws at them, so that all of America sees the error of their ways and is convinced to support sanity in perpetuity, and we really need to stop thinking that because millions of people believe nonsense that means that our candidates are at fault for not finding the exact right argument, and we REALLY REALLY REALLY need to stop thinking that we know better than the people who do this for a living.
Our candidates will focus on the issues that they have determined will most likely help them win and leave the rest aside for now. If they aren't talking about something good they did, it is because they think a different issue will have more weight. The difference between Biden losing and Harris winning was the difference between him going on and on and on about manufacturing jobs versus her railing against grocery price gouging. It is a bit perplexing you are proposing that the reason she isn't *more* ahead is because she abandoned talking about something people clearly weren't caring about to instead focus on something that every survey says they do. Can we trust the process please?
Well said. I'm an old Boomer. The Harris-Walz campaign is by far the best operation I've ever seen in my lifetime! No major errors, tons of innovation, superb strategy, clear messaging and an amazing way to turn rallies into volunteering for shifts.
This campaign has been the best of all possible worlds in terms of who is running it. People seem to forget that O'Malley-Dillon and co. managed to run a campaign in the middle of a literal plague and in-the-streets civil unrest when people were literally afraid to go outside to vote and a typical convention and canvassing was off the table, and in that environment managed to get an elderly man with a stutter to beat an opponent with Air Force One and a propaganda network at his disposal by a record SEVEN MILLION votes. Those same people are running the show AND we have some of the Obama folks onboard AND the fresh people from the Harris orbit...
...and people are still worried on a daily basis whether or not this group can pull it off, and second-guessing everything they are doing. We clearly have some trust issues to work on.
I think it's pretty clear that Tim Walz did a good job in a tough environment. His favorables went through the roof after the debate, undecided voters interviewed by several networks showed that they favored him/Harris after watching the debate. The American people aren't stupid. They know when they are being sold a bill of goods. JD Vance is a very good liar, but he's too slick and it shows through.
Democracy is not a spectator sport! We have to keep doing the work. I will keep posting the link on Mobilize for volunteers here in NC. We need everyone to do a shift, whether it's calling or physically knocking on doors. The campaign needs all of our help for the next 34 days! Please consider doing more and I know that we are all doing so much already!
In April, long before Trump picked his running mate, Robert Kuttner wrote a prescient article warning America about JD Vance. This is well worth reading!
Just as in a boxing match, one fighter may be ahead on points for eight-and-a-half rounds. That doesn’t matter one iota if the other fighter delivers a knock-out punch in the ninth round.
"That’s a damning non-answer," was Tim Walz’s knock-out punch!
Tim Walz spoke the memorable lines that will echo after this debate. What memorable lines did JD Vance have? I honestly don’t remember any. Neither will most people – and I think that matters.
It’s encouraging and telling that, in the snap polls, Independent voters preferred Walz.
As usual the media is oblivious to the real issue: competency of Trump.
Not only is he nuts, he's a malicious and vindictive grifter. Grifts his own supporters. Grifted the taxpayers for 4 years. Not one "journalist" has asked him point plank whether he took that $10 mil bribe from Egypt in 2016.
I wanna hear "don't slit your own throat:," "not suckers or losers" "In your guts you know Trump's nuts"
And the ubiquitous "Trump hates dogs"..."and you hate cats."
Our best issue is that Trump is incompetent to stand trial, let alone carry out an oath of office. He was grifter in chief as president. Not a word about his false accusations about Biden, Kamala, all of which are easily proven.
As to Vance, he is Putin's choice to be president. Ukraine is our issue.
Charges have been brought against him in Ohio for making false charges about Haitians. The Republican governor and the mayor of Springfield call him a liar.
The way JD kept calling the moderators by their first names in that condescending voice just irritated me to no end last night. Could almost hear "Hat check girl, fetch my hat" kind of vibe. Ugh. God, I love Coach.
I love Coach too. And I also hated the way Vance tried to talk over the moderaters who were trying to ask him questions. Thats an ugly Trump trick and it's even uglier coming from a guy who is supposed to be smart. I don't think either Trump or Vance is smart. They are certainly shallow.
Darn the luck, JD, for saying they did a peaceful transfer of power less than one day before Our Man Jack dropped his 180 page prosecutorial memo. "Let them riot" said the staffer to Trump.
It was amazing how JD’s mask slipped the second the moderators gently fact checked him.
I cannot believe how fragile these guys are when they get even slight pushback, especially from women.
Time to keep the truth flowing however we can. I’m particularly impressed with Harris-Walz campaign on social media. This is the most natural feeling operation I’ve ever seen from an official campaign.
Yeah, I think how he handled the fact check is going to run on social media a lot harder than the Jan 6 stuff.
When I told my wife about that exchange her jaw dropped. I think a lot of the pundits missed it because they all know he is lying but for a regular person on that gentle of a fact check it is shockingly bad. He essentially said, excuse me we all agreed I am aloud to lie up here.
"Thinking about the debate last night and I have to say there is something really odd about the media demanding interviews to ensure politicians are honest and accountable and the same media swooning over a slick delivery of lies."
We mailed our ballots yesterday as our "pre-debate" effort win the election. Thanks for creating Hopium Chronicles. Your daily commentary maintains our enthusiasm to mail 300 post cards 10/22/24.
Do they still have "democracy dies in darkness" in their masthead? I cancelled my subscription a year or two ago, although I miss Jennifer Rubin's writing.
I paid for a year's subscription - still debating whether to renew - by the way, they raised my subscription price to a lot more than 99 cents a month.
Every time I decide not to renew (online), they offer me the 99-cent deal. Otherwise, no way. A few years ago I acquiesced to $4/mo. No way would I pay that much for their coverage anymore!
Did you know Jennifer Rubin has a YouTube show called "The Green Room?" It's really good. Sometimes she interviews guests and sometimes she opines for the whole show. Not sure if this will work, but here's the link.
I've been watching Rubin's YouTube channel, free, available to all. She posts at least a couple of times a week, so you can still get plenty of her thoughts. (Rubin is the only reason we kept our WaPo subscription as a long as we did.)
I cancelled my subscription because their Opinion pages were becoming too much like the NY Post, the Wall Street Journal, or just another Rupert Murdoch rag. Some of their top management are actually from Murdoch publications. My subscription runs out on Thursday and I'm getting constant offers to renew at half price for two years. Nope.
Mailing my letters to Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina next week. Have 100 postcards waiting for Michigan, finishing and mailing by October 10! Coach Walz was relatable, honest, and human last night. He had some great moments in an atrocious environment of lies.
On Tuesday, we delivered our mail ballots in person here in SW FL to the Supervisor of Elections office. Received email today saying our ballots were received and counted!
Blake, you need to stop posting these wild posts.....they are unhelpful. Thank you.
My apologies. Just my nerves that have been getting to me. I'm sure you can see the shift throughout the trajectory of my posts over the last month so I will be sure to stay on top of self-editing. This is the Jewish New Year and I owe it to myself to continue tapping back into my optimistic instincts that brought me to this community in the first place. Please know, I'm deeply grateful for all you do and the extraordinary content you provide. I like to think I'm an intuitive person by nature but I'm not sure how effectively I'd get through this election cycle without your guidance to the community, the wisdom of Allan Lichtman, Lincoln Project, Mark Elias, Lawrence O'Donnell, Andrew Weisman, Mary McCord, Glen Kirschner, and Brian Tyler Cohen just to name a select but mighty few. I hope I have the pleasure of meeting you in person some day and thanking you again in person.... when Kamala is President and Angela Alsobrooks is my State Senator!!! Onward!
Luis welcome your involvement here but please do not encourage folks in our community to give outside of the Hopium recommendations. Thank you.
On the other hand, I don't feel we've been hurt. I was very concerned Walz would bomb, or flub (because he apparently is not a strong debater), and thankfully he didn't. Most seem to think VP debates are a blip in elections. Deep breaths.....
I don’t agree - Walz helped us more than Vance helped Trump. Walz’s favorables went up (well beyond Vance) and - in the focus groups from NBC and CNN and he - most importantly - got shareable moments for the campaign (per Vance’s II thought you weren’t going to fact check this and Jan 6). Vance mainly helped himself - his future in the GOP - rather than Trump.
According to PBS, undecided voters they spoke with were turned off by jd's position on women's constitutional rights, how he downplayed the insurrection and said there was a peaceful transfer of power, and his inability to say that trump lost the election or commit to accepting election results. jd's words and actions were seen as a threat to our democracy.
that's where we come in.
Time to make those "11 points" disintegrate!
...and whatever you do, don't pay attention to Polymarket! (Sorry, I saw your last comment before you deleted it lol.) Seriously, it's just a bunch of random regular people screwing around with their extra dollars on the weekend. It has no relation to what is happening in reality, and I think we all know that.
I'm worried about you, bro! You are seriously causing yourself unneeded stress. Go outside instead. We got this!
Thank you Will. Elections have always made me a complete wreck. I'll be honest I don't know where I'd be without this community. The other day at work, I was hyperventilating, and tensing up just thinking about this. Seriously I appreciate it man.
"Vance picked up 11 points in his favorability rating after the debate." Um, Dan... so did Walz. So does literally every VP candidate after each debate. Vance was still viewed less favorably AFTER picking up those points than Walz was BEFORE ALSO seeing his favorables rise. Our #2 guy is more popular than their #2 guy, period. Context matters.
Our job right now is not to find a way to psychically cleanse America of its penchant for charlatans, by making everyone smarter so that we never have to worry about liars again. That is impossible. (To quote Stephen Colbert, "truth has a well-known liberal bias.") Our job is to do the possible, which is to win this election. We are doing a good job of that thus far. It doesn't matter to what degree of unpopular the liars are, as long as our guys are more popular. Yeah, some undecided voters are dumb and will believe the lies. As long as most won't, we win. This has been the case for literally forever.
We need to stop expecting that our candidates will be these people who are such unbelievably brilliant truth-tellers that they can dispel every lie and evasion any Republican throws at them, so that all of America sees the error of their ways and is convinced to support sanity in perpetuity, and we really need to stop thinking that because millions of people believe nonsense that means that our candidates are at fault for not finding the exact right argument, and we REALLY REALLY REALLY need to stop thinking that we know better than the people who do this for a living.
Our candidates will focus on the issues that they have determined will most likely help them win and leave the rest aside for now. If they aren't talking about something good they did, it is because they think a different issue will have more weight. The difference between Biden losing and Harris winning was the difference between him going on and on and on about manufacturing jobs versus her railing against grocery price gouging. It is a bit perplexing you are proposing that the reason she isn't *more* ahead is because she abandoned talking about something people clearly weren't caring about to instead focus on something that every survey says they do. Can we trust the process please?
Well said. I'm an old Boomer. The Harris-Walz campaign is by far the best operation I've ever seen in my lifetime! No major errors, tons of innovation, superb strategy, clear messaging and an amazing way to turn rallies into volunteering for shifts.
This campaign has been the best of all possible worlds in terms of who is running it. People seem to forget that O'Malley-Dillon and co. managed to run a campaign in the middle of a literal plague and in-the-streets civil unrest when people were literally afraid to go outside to vote and a typical convention and canvassing was off the table, and in that environment managed to get an elderly man with a stutter to beat an opponent with Air Force One and a propaganda network at his disposal by a record SEVEN MILLION votes. Those same people are running the show AND we have some of the Obama folks onboard AND the fresh people from the Harris orbit...
...and people are still worried on a daily basis whether or not this group can pull it off, and second-guessing everything they are doing. We clearly have some trust issues to work on.
I think it's pretty clear that Tim Walz did a good job in a tough environment. His favorables went through the roof after the debate, undecided voters interviewed by several networks showed that they favored him/Harris after watching the debate. The American people aren't stupid. They know when they are being sold a bill of goods. JD Vance is a very good liar, but he's too slick and it shows through.
Democracy is not a spectator sport! We have to keep doing the work. I will keep posting the link on Mobilize for volunteers here in NC. We need everyone to do a shift, whether it's calling or physically knocking on doors. The campaign needs all of our help for the next 34 days! Please consider doing more and I know that we are all doing so much already!
https://www.mobilize.us/ncdems/
Vance came across like a slick attorney or a used car salesman. Neither persona helps any message seem sincere or truthful.
In April, long before Trump picked his running mate, Robert Kuttner wrote a prescient article warning America about JD Vance. This is well worth reading!
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-04-23-maga-2-0-jd-vance/
Thanks for including the article
OMG. Exactly. He’s more dangerous than tfg
What a slick pivoting liar. I’m proud of Gov Walz for clarifying what should be an easy choice. Go Blue!
I’m letting mine run out so I can read Dana Milbank and Jennifer Rubin who must be appalled.
JD Vance’s soul is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Donald Trump & Peter Thiel.
I'd add the Heritage Foundation to that.
And for all I know, Leonard Leo. (Imho, the second-most dangerous man in America,)
Just as in a boxing match, one fighter may be ahead on points for eight-and-a-half rounds. That doesn’t matter one iota if the other fighter delivers a knock-out punch in the ninth round.
"That’s a damning non-answer," was Tim Walz’s knock-out punch!
I’d argue JD was never ahead. He felt like the stereotypical used car salesman.
Walz came across as genuine and empathetic.
I think most Americans can see through that.
Tim Walz spoke the memorable lines that will echo after this debate. What memorable lines did JD Vance have? I honestly don’t remember any. Neither will most people – and I think that matters.
It’s encouraging and telling that, in the snap polls, Independent voters preferred Walz.
As usual the media is oblivious to the real issue: competency of Trump.
Not only is he nuts, he's a malicious and vindictive grifter. Grifts his own supporters. Grifted the taxpayers for 4 years. Not one "journalist" has asked him point plank whether he took that $10 mil bribe from Egypt in 2016.
I wanna hear "don't slit your own throat:," "not suckers or losers" "In your guts you know Trump's nuts"
And the ubiquitous "Trump hates dogs"..."and you hate cats."
Our best issue is that Trump is incompetent to stand trial, let alone carry out an oath of office. He was grifter in chief as president. Not a word about his false accusations about Biden, Kamala, all of which are easily proven.
As to Vance, he is Putin's choice to be president. Ukraine is our issue.
Charges have been brought against him in Ohio for making false charges about Haitians. The Republican governor and the mayor of Springfield call him a liar.
Memorable lines from Vance? How about “Margaret, the rules were that you guys weren’t going to fact check”? People seem to be remembering that one.
I am surprised that didn't get more play last night. Not caught up yet this morning so I don't know if it is getting play today. God JD is so slimey
Actually, it is. Especially on social media. Crazy thing is, it appears many Trumpies think it was a win for Vance.
In case it’s not, I think they’re delusional
Trumpies never fail to deliver.
it's getting a lot of play
Alienchords, I stand corrected!
I’m sure you were thinking memorable positives for the MAGAT campaign
The way JD kept calling the moderators by their first names in that condescending voice just irritated me to no end last night. Could almost hear "Hat check girl, fetch my hat" kind of vibe. Ugh. God, I love Coach.
I love Coach too. And I also hated the way Vance tried to talk over the moderaters who were trying to ask him questions. Thats an ugly Trump trick and it's even uglier coming from a guy who is supposed to be smart. I don't think either Trump or Vance is smart. They are certainly shallow.
Darn the luck, JD, for saying they did a peaceful transfer of power less than one day before Our Man Jack dropped his 180 page prosecutorial memo. "Let them riot" said the staffer to Trump.
Vance's most memorable line was, "we need stronger WINDOWS" in our schools. Not stronger LOCKS, not stronger doors, stronger WINDOWS!!!!!
That reminds me of a terrible nerdy joke:
"In a world without walls or fences, who needs Windows or Gates?"
Good god. Like the bullet proof glass at the check cashing stores in Oakland, CA where I live? That is beyond pathetic.
" Harris, Border" wash, rinse, repeat....
I love that perspective!
Like a soccer match where the team scores the winner in the 90th minute after conceding possession for most of the game. But a win is a win.
"This makes [JD Vance] the first vice presidential candidate in history who doesn’t know who won the last presidential election."
– Lawrence O’Donnell
That's a good one. Thanks for making me laugh.
And that was a damn good response. It was also a normal reaction, which is such a relief from tired spin and slick Willy nonsense.
It was amazing how JD’s mask slipped the second the moderators gently fact checked him.
I cannot believe how fragile these guys are when they get even slight pushback, especially from women.
Time to keep the truth flowing however we can. I’m particularly impressed with Harris-Walz campaign on social media. This is the most natural feeling operation I’ve ever seen from an official campaign.
Yeah, I think how he handled the fact check is going to run on social media a lot harder than the Jan 6 stuff.
When I told my wife about that exchange her jaw dropped. I think a lot of the pundits missed it because they all know he is lying but for a regular person on that gentle of a fact check it is shockingly bad. He essentially said, excuse me we all agreed I am aloud to lie up here.
Good on Simon for leading with it.
"Thinking about the debate last night and I have to say there is something really odd about the media demanding interviews to ensure politicians are honest and accountable and the same media swooning over a slick delivery of lies."
– Neera Tanden
Corporate media wants "to ensure politicians are honest and accountable" and yet is allergic to any substantive fact-checking?? Uh-huh.
Isn't that a relief? We've had ten years of braying bullies and maybe, finally, most people are simply fed up with it.
We mailed our ballots yesterday as our "pre-debate" effort win the election. Thanks for creating Hopium Chronicles. Your daily commentary maintains our enthusiasm to mail 300 post cards 10/22/24.
I think Governor Tim Walz will make a fantastic Vice President. Go Harris/Walz!
The traitorous Washington Post has decided that Vance won. More of their disgusting acquiescence to fascism.
which is why I canceled my subscription after decades and decades. No more.
Do they still have "democracy dies in darkness" in their masthead? I cancelled my subscription a year or two ago, although I miss Jennifer Rubin's writing.
No, they changed it to "Democracy Dies in Editorial Cowardice".
Jennifer Rubin’s writing is the only reason I’m subscribing, for 99 cents per month.
I paid for a year's subscription - still debating whether to renew - by the way, they raised my subscription price to a lot more than 99 cents a month.
Unless the Editors of WaPo change their course, I’m letting mine lapse after the year.
Every time I decide not to renew (online), they offer me the 99-cent deal. Otherwise, no way. A few years ago I acquiesced to $4/mo. No way would I pay that much for their coverage anymore!
Did you know Jennifer Rubin has a YouTube show called "The Green Room?" It's really good. Sometimes she interviews guests and sometimes she opines for the whole show. Not sure if this will work, but here's the link.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLIMaYVqnSs68Qfw32vvIKbUdn2tZbMJrl
Yes, and I have watched several episodes. My favorite so far is where she interviews an expert on Christian Nationalism and American religion.
Jen is a fine exception, because she is unusually articulate and succinct, but generally I prefer to read rather than watch videos.
Yay for the 99-cent club! If they ever raise it to a dollar, I'm out.
😂
I've been watching Rubin's YouTube channel, free, available to all. She posts at least a couple of times a week, so you can still get plenty of her thoughts. (Rubin is the only reason we kept our WaPo subscription as a long as we did.)
Thanks!
Politicon. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JfSZyRzmkk&t=453s
I cancelled my subscription because their Opinion pages were becoming too much like the NY Post, the Wall Street Journal, or just another Rupert Murdoch rag. Some of their top management are actually from Murdoch publications. My subscription runs out on Thursday and I'm getting constant offers to renew at half price for two years. Nope.
I gave them credit for being (slightly) better than the New York Times. Still I have to wonder how much their "appraisal" matters
Doesn’t matter at all with the voters we need to reach, I think!
Thanks for letting us know. I made the right decision in not reading that piece.
Watching JD Vance's performance was like watching a cobra working at lulling his prey into complacency before he devours it.
Maybe so, but Mongoose Walz was never lulled into lowering his guard. On the other hand, the Snake clearly lowered his!
Rikki Tikki Tavi fan, too! Great analogy!
I’m putting this on a sign for my car~
Democracy is Not
a Spectator Sport!
Mailing my letters to Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina next week. Have 100 postcards waiting for Michigan, finishing and mailing by October 10! Coach Walz was relatable, honest, and human last night. He had some great moments in an atrocious environment of lies.
On Tuesday, we delivered our mail ballots in person here in SW FL to the Supervisor of Elections office. Received email today saying our ballots were received and counted!
These are not debates. They are nothing more than a disingenuous way for cbs et. al to give the gop 90 minutes of free advertising.