Happy Wednesday all. It is October, postcards are flying, and early voting is going to really take off next week as many states turn on early voting. The most important thing now is to keep working it every day, in whatever way you can…..
The debate. I am still trying to get my head around what I saw last night. A few initial thoughts with my top line is that Vance did not do the one thing he needed to do - change the trajectory of a race they are not winning……
This morning I remain just bowled over by the lies, inventions and contempt the modern right has for all of us. We know Trump spends more of his time in a world of untruth and invention rather than the world we all live in - eating cats and dogs, sharks and batteries, the economy was better under him, he isn’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon etc. Last night we heard Vance also spending most of the debate there with Trump in this bat shit crazy MAGA world - climate change isn’t real, stripping away the rights and freedoms of women is a good thing, denying their clear assault on American’s access to affordable and quality care, continuing to lie about the 2020 election and their attempt to over turn American democracy. It was as if Vance’s central goal last night was to lie, paper over and deflect from their extremism; to use clearly practiced and often ridiculous diversions in a silly setting to limit the political damage their beliefs would actually cause if he fully articulated them in public. It was a defensive performance by a losing campaign that knows how far away they are from the majority of Americans. To limit the damage Vance repeatedly trod out comically absurd lines and narratives that wouldn’t withstand the simplest fact check, taking advantage of CBS’s cowardly decision to yield to the Trump campaign’s illiberal demands to allow lying and invention to happen unchallenged.
I guess my point here is how much Vance built his performance around these brief opportunities to lie, obscure, invent and deflect given the absurd format. It was so shockingly dishonest and contemptuous of the American people; for serial lying is an insult to democracy, an illiberal act, a manifestation of authoritarianism. And when the one time he was called out for his lying and invention by Margaret Brennan he shrieked (see the video above). For in that moment he became fearful of having this fictional world he and the campaign had fashioned to obscure their ugliness exposed as invention; that it would become clear that he was an actor in a play and not the fictional character itself; the curtain was briefly pulled back from the Wizard and we saw him demand it be drawn back; no, in fact, the princeling was wearing clothes and was not naked for all of us to see he shouted at all of us last night…
Here is a brief exchange on MSNBC last night about the centrality of lying and deflection to their entire project (all these videos can be found on KamalaHQ feed on social media platforms):
Here is a Gen Z voter responding last night to Vance claiming to make our kids safe in schools we need better locks and doors - “ridiculous” which is one of the best ways we all have to describe them:
Last night was an ugly spectacle, and our guy did his best in a very challenging format for truth based-discourse. He was particularly strong and compelling on health care and reproductive freedom. And of course he crushed Vance in that late exchange on Vance’s illiberal refusal to denounce insurrection. The campaign is already out with a video/ad on the exchange (please share this widely through your networks):
Here is another young voter expressing outrage about something Vance said, this one on his refusal to denounce insurrection:
5 of the 6 undecided voters on NBC news last night said Governor Walz won the debate.
NPR produced a good fact check on the debate. One other literally jawdropping moment last night was Vance’s assertion that immigrants smuggling guns in from Mexico were a central cause of gun violence in the US. As someone who has worked on immigration and border issues for 20 years I couldn’t believe what I was hearing. Guns are illegal in Mexico. There are no guns made in Mexico. The cartels get their guns here in the US, where half of all guns in the world reside. Our lax gun laws have helped make the cartels what they are today and have destabilized our neighbor to the South. The guns Vance described last night all came from here - not Mexico. It was an extraordinary and shocking invention, something way beyond a lie, another fascistic attempt to denigrate the other.
The Trump campaign was successful in getting two of the three debates to not allow fact checking on air (I still can’t believe this happened at all). The one where they were not able to get that agreed too Trump got crushed. Trumpworld isn’t agreeing to another debate with Harris because they have learned he cannot survive contact with the real world, as their lies and inventions melt, and we get to see the old and hunched Wizard not the false grandeur of Oz/MAGA. Yesterday 60 Minutes announced that Trump had pulled out of a scheduled interview with them because they wanted to fact check him. Here’s Axios, and note that the Trump campaign lies - of course - about what happened:
Former President Trump turned down a "60 Minutes" offer of back-to-back conversations with both presidential nominees, with his campaign saying he didn't want interruptions for fact checks.
Vice President Harris will appear on the show, airing Oct. 7. "60 Minutes," the highest-rated news program on TV, says the invitation to Trump stands.
Why it matters: With Trump saying it's "too late" for another debate with Harris, the show could have been a final chance for both candidates to reach a mass audience, 29 days before Election Day.
Between the lines: CBS says Trump accepted, then pulled out. Steven Cheung, the Trump campaign communications director, told Axios:
"There were discussions but nothing was ever scheduled or locked in. They insisted on cutting out of the interview to do fact-checking."
What they're saying: "60 Minutes is scheduled to air a primetime election special on a Monday edition of the broadcast on October 7 at 8PM," the show tweeted as a "programming note" three hours before the vice-presidential debate on Tuesday night.
“For over half a century, 60 Minutes has invited the Democratic and Republican tickets to appear on our broadcast as Americans head to the polls."
A "60 Minutes" spokesperson added: "This year, both the Harris and Trump campaigns agreed to sit down with 60 Minutes. Vice President Harris will speak with correspondent Bill Whitaker. After initially accepting 60 Minutes' request for an interview with Scott Pelley, former President Trump's campaign has decided not to participate. Pelley will address this Monday evening."
"Our election special will broadcast the Harris interview on Monday as planned. Our original invitation to former President Donald Trump to be interviewed on 60 Minutes stands."
Countering this dark world of untruth and invention - and exposing it as a central tactic of MAGA and authoritarians all around the world - was a central reason I started Hopium. Here is something I wrote in my very first Hopium post:
I am calling it Hopium Chronicles because I want this to be a journey guided by hope and optimism, of belief in ourselves, in love of country and a clear understanding of the nature of the conflict we are in. I have become convinced that part of Greater MAGA’s strategy is to intentionally poison our discourse with negative sentiment every day. They want us to feel bad about America, our democracy, our leaders, our institutions, our success, each other, ourselves. We cannot let them do that any more. While they talk American down every day, we need to talk it up. While they spread lies, we respond with truth and data. Hopium is a rejection of the darkness they are trying to spread. It is a way of standing up for our great country and its remarkable people. It is the key to how we win.
We all know that we are so so much better than this. And we are not going back to all this ugliness. We are going forward. Onward to victory, my friends, together for our freedoms, our democracy and our future.
Hopium Paid Subscribers Gather Today at 4pm ET - I am hosting a post-debate recap gathering today at 4pm ET for Hopium paid subscribers. If you are not yet a paid subscriber and want to join us, hit the link below and sign up! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content here free for all at this critical moment. So becoming a paid subscriber to Hopium really matters. A recording of this event will be here tomorrow for those who cannot make it live.
Election, Polling Update - Doing a lot of media today so a short update this morning, more data and analysis tomorrow. We got new battleground state polls from the Cook Report which show the race where we’ve believed it to be - close and competitive, with all seven states in play, and us being in better shape and closer to 270 than them.
This chart also shows how much the election has moved in our favor over the past few months:
For more on 2024:
Watch Vice President Harris’s big economic speech, her new speech on the border and immigration, and her terrific interview with Stephanie Ruhle
Catch my latest post and video presentation on the 2024 election, and our wonderful new Closing Strong episode with Harris-Walz Campaign Manager Julie Rodriguez and WI Dem Chair Ben Wikler
4 new trends that are making me even more optimistic
See my new talk on the importance of voting on Day 1 and winning it in October
No red waving 2024 please - it’s time we talk about all these right-aligned polls in the polling averages
We now know that Trump’s abortion bans are killing women
Hopium Community Is Doing More, A Whole Lot More, and Worrying A Whole Lot Less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Friends, you are incredible. When called, you answered. In the last 2 days before the filing deadline we raised over $500,000 for our candidate and state parties, and over $1m in the past week. As you will see below we are nearing on our October 31 targets right now. Honestly, when I set these new goals I thought they would be stretch goals. But here we are, with a month to go, clearly on track to hit these ambitious goals and together make a serious difference this election cycle. Note that we hit $100,000 raised for Jon Tester last night - thank you all!
We are in October now. Millions of postcards have begun making their important journey. Without another Presidential debate in the final six weeks our ticket needs other ways to keep generating intensity and interest. That’s why your work, your money, your working your networks matters more than usual. For we have to become the intensity makers. We have to keep talking to voters. We are have to keep bringing it, everyday, as we’ve been doing in these final six weeks. For when we fight, peeps, we win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Harris-Walz For President - $1,145,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel
Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:
North Carolina - $685,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We need to keep stepping up for the people of North Carolina!!!!!!
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $422,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $220,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!
Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:
Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,414,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates
Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $61,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.
Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!
Sign up to postcard and call into these critical swing districts in our Hopium Winning The House Thursday series. Next Thursday we are working for Adam Gray (CA-13) starting at 715pm ET and ending at 9pm (note new start time - getting more work in). Register here. Each week in addition to the work we usually hear from the candidate we are working for and I close with a 10 minute update on the election. Join us - it’s where all cool kids are on Thursday nights!
Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego:
Montana/Jon Tester - $100,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. Amazing work all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $65,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $422,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Ways you can do even more
Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting has now begun across the country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats!
Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.
Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 120,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
Gov Walz Earnestly Made His Case And Landed Meaningful Blows, JD Vance Was An Odious Liar and Extremist. It Is October Now - Let's Keep Working Hard All!