Closing Strong, Reasons for Optimism, Big Harris Econ Speech Today, Working For Rudy Salas Tomorrow Night

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Happy Wednesday all. Let’s level set on where we are right now. We lead in national polling and in MI, PA, WI and NE-02, which means if the polling is accurate (big if) Harris is at 270 and would win the election if it were held today. AZ, GA, NC, NV are all close, with GOP Senate/Gov candidates struggling and a potential drag in AZ, NC and NV. We have meaningful advantages in money, on the ground, in enthusiasm and the all-important new measure of crowd size. Our ticket is far better liked than theirs. Vice President crushed Trump in the debate, and the big baby man is refusing to agree to another. We are now beating them on social media. We are talking about things people care about in their lives. Trump and Vance are talking about sharks and batteries, eating dogs and cats, and are running on the craziest and most destructive economic plan in modern times. The Fed has cut interest rates, the economy is strong and Harris is closing the gap on the economy (really important). Our party is unified, theirs has splintered. Since Dobbs we’ve been overperforming polls and making gains across the country, they’ve been struggling and underperforming polls including Trump himself this year in the GOP primaries. We know now that Trump has not just sexually abused women but his abortion bans are killing them. Jack Smith is going to take a huge swing at Trump tomorrow. The blue dot remains the blue dot.

In sum - I would much rather be us than them.

At the core of my optimism is our superior capacity to close strong and push this election towards us in the home stretch. We just have a stronger, better and more popular team. As I say we are winning the election but have not won it yet; and our collective goal now is to work together to push this election towards us in the coming weeks, run up the score in the early vote and kick the orange guy’s ass.

Let me share a few more reasons for optimism:

North Carolina Is a True Bright Spot For Us Right Now - Harris is tied or ahead in a majority of the recent public, independent polls in North Carolina. The averages show Trump ahead but this due to a flood of very pro-Trump GOP polls since the debate. I felt we were favored there prior to Mark Robinson’s epic and ongoing meltdown, even more so now. Josh Stein is running a very good campaign. We know Anderson Clayton has built a formidable grassroots army - with our help of course. I remain very bullish on North Carolina and simply there is no Trump map without it. All in here folks. We win here and it is almost impossible for Trump to win the election.

New High-Quality Surveys Suggest Polls May Be Underestimating Harris’s Support With Young People and Black Voters - The new high-quality, large sample Harvard IOP youth poll suggests there is now a serious youth surge towards Harris. She is up 61%-30% with likely 18-29 year old voters. In 2020 Biden won 18-29 year olds by 24 points. We are also seeing surges in young people registering to vote. This new dynamic and new Harris margin simply is not getting captured in most polling - yet.

Let’s look at the Quinnipiac poll this week that had Trump up a point. Their 18-34 year old vote was Harris 48, Trump 45. If Harvard IOP is right that number should be Harris +25 to +27. Adjusting for this youth surge puts Harris ahead not behind in this poll. As many young people register as unaffiliated and not Democrats, analysts and pollsters may also not being seeing what is in fact a youth surge of Democrats into the electorate not just a surge of young people. The bottom line - current polling is almost certainly underestimating her new strength among young people.

Just as the Harvard IOP youth poll is a very large sample poll of a narrow slice of the electorate and thus far more reliable than 70 person subsamples of groups in national polls, Howard University just completed a large sample poll of black voters in the battlegrounds. Here’s the summary:

Black American likely voters in battleground states show strong support for Harris over Trump. Harris leads Donald Trump, 82 to 12 percent among this population. The same voters report having supported President Biden over Trump 81 to 9 percent in the 2020 election. Support for Harris is even higher among voters who say they are “almost certain” to vote 85 to 10 percent.

Biden won black voters by 75 points in 2020. The battleground electorate is a little more R than the national vote so Harris being up 75 points here is actually a little better than the 2020 national Biden vote. Harris +75 with black voters is higher than many recent national polls. The most recent NYT national poll, for example, which had the national race tied had Harris up by only 64 points with black voters.

As many recent polls show Trump doing better with younger voters than the high-quality Harvard IOP poll, many recent polls also show Trump doing better with black voters than this new Howard poll. If these large sample polls of young people and blacks are correct, it is very likely that many polls are overestimating Trump’s strength with the electorate right now.

We Really May Be Able To Win It In October - A new NBC analysis of their latest poll has some very encouraging news for us Voting on Day 1/winning it in October warriors:

Half of registered voters plan to vote early this fall, new figures from the September NBC News poll show, with Democrats continuing to run up the score among early voters and Republicans getting stronger backing from those who plan to vote in person on Election Day.

Fifty-one percent of voters say they'll vote early, either by mail or in person, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 61%-35% (a 26-point margin) among those voters.

By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57%-37%, with the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, which accounts for 45% of the electorate in the poll. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.

"Either the margin has to close among [those] voting early, or Republican margins on Election Day have to be bigger than this to win," said Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.

Remember, running up the score in the early vote is not just about banking more votes. By moving so much of our vote early this allows us to reach lower propensity voters sooner and helps grow our overall vote. If the early vote performs as this NBC News poll suggests, it means that current polling may be underestimating our ultimate level of support as a large early vote, with the size and sophistication of our field operations, should net us more votes than are on the board right now.

Harris Is Making Important Gains On The Economy - As the Vice President prepares to give a major economic speech in Pittsburgh today, there is more evidence that the Harris-Walz’s campaign is making gains on the most important issue to many voters, the economy. Here’s the Washington Post this morning in an article titled Trump is losing his edge on the economy among voters:

Americans are finally starting to feel better about the economy, invigorating Vice President Kamala Harris’s pitch for the presidency as she narrows her Republican opponent’s longtime lead on an issue that is foremost on voters’ minds.

Although voters still favor former president Donald Trump over Harris on handling the economy, his advantage has dropped dramatically in recent weeks. Trump now averages a six-percentage-point edge on the economy, compared with a 12-point lead against President Joe Biden earlier this year, according to an analysis of five polls that measured voters’ opinions before and after Biden dropped out……

…….

“She’s been very aggressive about laying out specifics, and that’s what people want,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. “It also helps that she’s a new face with a new set of life experiences, so people don’t assume her policies will be the same as Biden’s. And on top of that, inflation is abating. The fact that prices have stabilized and seem more predictable — that goes a long way.”

The shift in economic polling coincides with Americans’ improving views on the economy. Consumer sentiment, at its highest level in four months, has risen 40 percent from its low in June 2022, according to a closely watched survey from the University of Michigan. The latest figures show that Americans are feeling better about inflation, as well as the economy and their own finances. Researchers also noted that “a growing share of both Republicans and Democrats now anticipate a Harris win.”

This is good news. While here, I want to return to something we’ve discussed here a lot over the past few years - that someone’s “lived experience” on the economy is a political construct. Look at this data from today’s new Economist/YouGov poll. Harris leads in the poll 49%-46%. Here is how voters rate the economy as Excellent/Good vs Fair/Poor:

• Harris voters 51%-48%

• Trump voters 5%-95%

• Independents 22%-71%

It’s why the Harris campaign has worked so hard to thread the needle on the economy, and appears to be doing so effectively. Our voters do not believe the economy is bad or that Joe Biden has done a bad job on the economy. It’s why I think statements like “Americans are down on the economy” are not accurate. Look at these partisan splits on Biden’s handling of the economy:

• Harris voters 82%-13% approve/disapprove

• Trump voters 3%-95% approve/disapprove

• Independents 29%-56% approve/disapprove

Biden even gets high marks on inflation and prices with Harris voters and Democrats:

But as you will see throughout, it is not just Republicans who give Biden and the economy low marks, it is independents too. Which is why the campaign has made the economy so central to their paid communications in the states. If we want to expand our coalition we simply must keep gaining ground on the economy with voters who are not yet with us. And based on recent data the campaign is succeeding in doing so, and today will keep pressing their case as we still have voters to win over and an election to go win.

Friends, so, yes, there are many reasons for optimism right now. What I write about today is an election that is possible. Now we have to go out and together make it a reality. That is why we do the work - to turn something that is possible into the election we all want to have.

For remember, Hopium is hope with a plan. We don’t just hope that we will win. We do the work to make it so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Calling and Postcarding For Rudy Salas Tomorrow Night at 730pm ET - Our Thursday night Winning The House get together tomorrow night will be for Rudy Salas (CA-22). You can register for our event here. Visit here to learn more about how to postcard or call for all 15 candidates even if you can’t make it live, or want to keep working beyond our Thursday night gatherings. Rudy will be joining us tomorrow night, fates allowing, at 735pm ET for a brief update on the race and I will close the night out with an overview of the current national political landscape. Join us! These events are fun, we get a lot of work done and get to meet good people along the way!

Hard Work Is Good Work/Winning It In October - September is the last major filing deadline for campaigns across the country so this next week really matters my friends. Whatever you got left in your pocket try to give it before midnight on September 30th. Money now is better than money in late October for all these races. Do what you can, and I will note that this community has really stepped up in recent days. We are moving a lot of money into these races and state parties - thank you all!

Harris-Walz For President - $1,066,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel

Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two frontline state parties:

• North Carolina - $524,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $381,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $193,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!

Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:

• Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,210,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates

• Support The New 4 - $40,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. This is amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!

• Sign up to postcard and call into these critical swing districts in our Hopium Winning The House Thursday series. This week we are working for Rudy Salas (CA-22). We start at 730pm ET and go to 9pm. Register here. Each week in addition to the work we usually hear from the candidate we are working for and I close with a 10 minute update on the election. Join us - it’s where all cool kids are on Thursday nights!

Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego:

• Montana/Jon Tester - $44,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $27,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $381,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

Ways you can do even more:

• Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting has now begun in MN, SC, SD, PA and VA!

• Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats!

• Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.

Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 115,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you! - Simon