Harris's Economic Speech and Ruhle Interview, I'd Much Rather Be Us Than Them, Redwaving In 2024, Working For Rudy Salas Tonight at 730pm

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Happy Thursday all. A big day for the Harris campaign yesterday. The Vice President made a powerful economic speech, filling in more details in her pragmatic, winning the future, not just get by but get ahead plan. She also did an extended sit down with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle. I start with the Ruhle interview and encourage everyone to watch it:

On her economic speech, here is how political commentator Ron Brownstein saw it last night on CNN:

And what this speech did, I think, was really kind of lay out the depth of the divergence here. Trump is offering, in essence, a fortress America economic strategy, of unprecedented tariffs that we haven’t seen since before the depression, massive deportation and immigration restrictions, and low taxes. That was essentially the Republican agenda of the 1920s, before the depression. Harris, I think, as you saw in the speech, linked herself to Lincoln, and Eisenhower, Transcontinental Railroad Interstate Highway System, partnership between government and industry to a greater extent than we’ve seen really for most of the last fifty years, although Biden has moved in this direction, to nurture industries of the future, and to steer it towards specific places — that place-based economic strategy very significant as well. So the divergence between the two of them and the kind of economic future that they are offering and the role of government, the role of US interaction with the rest of the world, it could not be more profound, and I think this speech went a long-way toward giving people a better sense of how big that difference is.”

Here’s a recording of the speech. It was really good. Do watch and share. I will have more to say on it in the coming days but as I wrote yesterday the campaign’s strategy to improve her standing on the economy is working, and the gains she is making will really matter in these closing days of the campaign:

As the Vice President talks about in her Stephanie Ruhle interview, independent analyses of her economic plan and Trump’s bat shit crazy, global and US economy wrecking plan keep showing the same thing again and again - her plan is far more likely to create growth and American success, his American decline (as Putin would want of course!). Look at this Tweet from the Petersen Institute here in DC today. It’s hard to even put into words how much damage he would do to our economy and the American people if he somehow ends up in the Oval Office next year.

Polling, Election News: A Close Election, Redwaving, I’d Much Rather Be Us Than Them - First, sending a link to my talk with Tom Bonier Tuesday night at the Vibes to Votes COURIER Newsroom event. Start by watching Tara’s remarkable interview with Nancy Pelosi. My panel with Tom and Maria Cardona begins around minute 49. It’s a informative indepth review of where we think things are right now. If you are looking for a video of me talking about the election this week this is a good one. Enjoy everyone.

We’ve gotten a lot of polling in this week, and it all continues to tell the same story - we are running slightly ahead of them and hovering around Biden 2020 numbers. Given our ongoing strength in PA, MI, WI we are closer to 270 than Trump is. The Senate polling remains encouraging and the DC family still believes Sherrod Brown and Tester can win. But the bottom line is that everything is close and we just have to keep fighting everywhere.

I discussed some of the new, encouraging trends I’m seeing in yesterday’s post. A new Washington Post poll has Angela Alsobrooks up 51-40 (+11) over Larry Hogan with likely Maryland voters. The ongoing Republican nightmare in North Carolina continues:

We’ve gotten some new House polling this week. And things are close my friends. Our work, our support really matters (all polls can be found on 538):

CA 13 - Gray 46% Duarte 45%

CA 22 - Salas 47% Valadao 44%

CA 27 - Whitesides 48% Garcia 46%

CA 41 - Rollins 47% Calvert 48%

CA 45 - Tran 48% Steel 46%

OR 05 - Bynum 47% Chavez-DeRemer 45%

A general reminder that there remains an awful lot of right-aligned polling in the polling averages, and folks should continue to be skeptical, given what happened in 2022, of any right-leaning poll or pollster. It’s why I am not a big fan of polling averages. They were gamed by a flood of right-wing polls in 2022, and there remains a lot of those pollsters in the averages today. A good example of this is RMG, a firm run by Scott Rasmussen, founder of one of the most corrupt polling firms in the country, Rasmussen (which has been banned from 538). In the last 2 days RMG dropped three narrative shaping polls paid for by God knows who:

• MT - Tester down 7 (a ridiculous finding)

• OH - Moreno up 2 (helps soften the blow of Moreno’s horrible new video this week, all other polls have Brown ahead as do our internals)

• PA - Harris and Trump tied (which is where Rs want the race to be even if many other polls show us leading there)

No state has seen more “red wave pollsters” in recent weeks than North Carolina. The majority of the recent, public, independent polls taken there show Harris tied or ahead. There have now been 7 - yes 7 - right wing aligned polls that have polled there in recent weeks and of course ALL OF THEM show Trump ahead. The polling average in North Carolina would favor Harris if we removed the flood of these right wing, narrative shaping polls. Clearly Lara Trump and RNC Chair Whatley, former NC GOP Chair, have turned on some machine as no other state has seen this many right-aligned polls in recent weeks. The game here obviously is to not let it appear that Mark Robinson’s meltdown is causing NC to slip away.

It appears that their goal right now is to create two basic narratives about the election - MT and OH are slipping away from Dems and NC and PA are in play and Trump still has a shot at 270 (for if those states go he has no path). After NC, PA has seen the second most number of these red wave polls in recent weeks.

C’mom, Simon you say, this kind of stuff can’t be happening……Let’s review this final Real Clear Politics Senate map in 2022. Based on “averages” that had been flooded with right-wing polls they ended at Rs getting to 54 seats in the Senate. They got to 49. Again - the “averages” said 54. They got to 49.

And here’s one of these red wave pollsters taking credit for moving the NC polling average to Trump:

Fuckery, cheating, corrupting, info warring is what they are all about. I will stay on top of all this in the coming days for all of you and not going to let them redwave 2024 as they did 2022.

I am also keeping an eye on FL and TX, but remember to really compete in both those states requires enormous amounts of money that will not go to other places. For those excited about beating Deb Fischer in Nebraska give to the Nebraska State Party (below) as it will also help us win the blue dot and flip the NE-2 House race - a three-fer. Our three “checkmate” states - Arizona, Nebraska and North Carolina - are still of enormous strategic importance and we need to keep rallying for all three. We win these two states and the blue dot and we win the Presidential election.

Calling and Postcarding For Rudy Salas Tonight at 730pm ET - Our Thursday night Winning The House get together tonight will be for Rudy Salas (CA-22). You can register for our event here, and can also donate to Rudy, learn more and watch my interview with Rudy. Visit here to learn more about how to postcard or call for all 15 candidates even if you can’t make it live, or want to keep working beyond our Thursday night gatherings. Rudy will be joining us tonight, fates allowing, at 735pm ET for a brief update on the race and I will close the night out with an overview of the current national political landscape. Join us! These events are fun, we get a lot of work done and get to meet good people along the way! Next week we will be working for Adam Gray, (CA-13) and will begin at our new start time, 715pm ET.

Hard Work Is Good Work/Winning It In October - September is the last major filing deadline for campaigns across the country so this week really matters my friends. Whatever you got left in your pocket try to give it before midnight next Tuesday, September 30th. Money now is better than money in late October for all these races. Do what you can, and I will note that this community has really stepped up in recent days. We are moving a lot of money into these races and state parties - $50,000 to $60,000 a day - thank you all!

Harris-Walz For President - $1,069,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel

Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:

• North Carolina - $538,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $387,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $194,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!

Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:

• Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,221,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates

• Support The New 4 House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $42,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.

• Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!

• Sign up to postcard and call into these critical swing districts in our Hopium Winning The House Thursday series. Tonight we are working for Rudy Salas (CA-22), starting at 730pm ET and ending at 9pm. Register here. Each week in addition to the work we usually hear from the candidate we are working for and I close with a 10 minute update on the election. Join us - it’s where all cool kids are on Thursday nights!

Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego:

• Montana/Jon Tester - $48,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $31,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $381,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

Ways you can do even more:

• Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting has now begun across the country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats!

• Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.

Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 117,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you! - Simon