Vote Forward just added letter writing campaigns to Florida, Missouri, and Texas: https://votefwd.org/district/FL_2024_C3_STATE Targets young voters and reproductive freedom amendments.
The more the better! This could make a real difference when it comes to state and local offices. Which 1) really do make more of a difference in one’s day to day life than federal politics, and 2) are the Democrats’ future seed corn, or farm team, or whatever agricultural metaphor you wish to employ.
I love writing these letters. Somehow I feel a personal connection to each person who will receive them. I'm currently writing to the NC young voters. Let's do this! Oh, and my daughter just requested a mail-in ballot here in Maryland. She's an RN and sometimes does a 16 hour shift (ugh!). Hopefully, not on November 5th, but she's covered now. We're all in for Angela Alsobrooks as well.
Nice Jewish boy Simon Rosenberg uses the word “fuckery” means it’s getting real and the scam by right wing pollsters is clear. Good news for dems. Right wing knows they losing because their candidate is the worst possible person for the job.
I'd highly recommend MIchael Podhorzer's exhaustive analysis of this and recent elections today. In short, it's down to whether new voters actually vote ( the majority vote for Dems even if they are not Dems themselves, but indies ) and whether enough people feel they have more to lose under trump than Harris. That's what elections are about these days; a belief that the other side is intolerable. He makes no suggestions here but it seems people, especially new voters, need to be shown what an asshole trump really is, over and over and in clear language. Forget about his voters turning much; if you've talked to any, you know they are impossible to de-program. Podhorzer thinks the PV is something we will win, but the swing states are harder to call, and I think we all know that. hence, the right wing polls in NC and PA trying to work the refs; this means they aren't focused on AZ and NV so much ( IMO ); it can't be because they think they have them locked up....and Podhorzer notes how tough it is to really poll NV which had a lot of out migration after COVID. He doesn't think much of polls in any case; panels, he notes, show a much more steady race. They survey the same group all the time. It is fascinating stuff, and I wonder what Simon thinks about this writer, who seems to be highly respected in some circles.
Simon, I cannot tell you (enough) how I wait for your words every day, how I send them to others, how I am doing the work you are calling for. Thank you. I don't think I'd sleep at all without you. Question: What are we learning from early voting in VA and elsewhere at this point? I know the turnout is high. Is the news there good for Ds?
NB. Party affiliation is known for only approx 35k of the 233k votes cast. However, Tom Bonier and his TargetSmart has sophisticated methods for extrapolating more info about party affiliation. I am sure we can look forward to that expanded data later, from Tom or Simon.
Thank you, again. I've grown so confused about this. Washington Post saying the Ds will still have an early voter advantage (thanks to polling about voter intentions) over Rs in early voting but Fox News (not that I watch it, just reading the reporting) saying the GOP is all in and will bank many early votes. Tom Bonier warning against the Fox reporting (and of course I believe Tom over Fox). I just — well, I just keep reading and reading and reading wanting to know for sure. I so appreciate your sharing this data. Now I'm checking it obsessively, too.
McDonald lists which states report each type of subdata, such as party affiliation, gender, age, ethnicity etc. It’s just a few states But clearly Democrats are racking up an advantage.
Apparently Fox News’ polls are rather accurate. Other than that, I wouldn’t trust them further than I can throw Sean Hannity.
It seems like that to me, too. I've been watching the vote tallies in Northern VA, heavily Democratic, and it's pretty inspiring. What worried me is the vote tallies are high in rural Virginia, too. But I'm going with your sense about all of this. As for throwing certain individuals ...
I think that for most MAGATs the economy issue is merely a pretext for race hatred. 90% of MAGATS vote against their own economic and physical well being. "slit their own throat." The media should be showing some of the charts that Simon produced. Jobs created. Jobs lost. Trump was/is a disaster. Ironically the Biden CHIPS and infrastructure job gains are mostly to red states.
Meanwhile, none of the so called polling "experts" who rely on "likely" voters' data seem to care that there may be a tsunami of new blue voters. Think FT 6, David Hogg, Taylor Swift, etc. As I've been saying, those figures are available. The DNC has VAT and VAN that can show new voters are they are registered. According to FT 6 data from 2022, these folks are, to a reasonable degree of probability, going to vote. https://www.fieldteam6.org/impact-report-2021-22-d1
As a matter of fundamentals, "Today, there are about 91 million Americans who have voted for Biden and House Democrats since 2016, and about 83 million who have voted for Trump or House Republicans. If this pool of voters votes that way again, and if they constitute 80 percent of those voting in 2024 (a fairly conservative assumption), then the other 20 percent of voters would have to favor Trump by 18 points for him to overcome that deficit." Podheizer.
Not to mention enthusiasm and new registrations favor Democrats. FT 6 phone banks to FL and PA today. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
I agree with you about the falseness of “economic anxiety” turning people into MAGAts. Most really poor people either don’t vote at all, or they vote Democratic (more people with incomes under 30K voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016). Your MAGAts are your “American Gentry” as Patrick Wyman and Sarah Taber both put it. They’re the exurban used car dealers, or dentists with boats. They have plenty of money, but think that women and Those People need to know their proper places.
I'm sorry to report that many of them are SSI recipients, VA recipients, retirees etc. who rely on Social Security and Medicare and slit their own throats.
Celebrating my birthday here in Wales. Voted electronically in the USA election today! So cuffed as they say in my country of residence. I put a donate to N Carolina link up on FB for the day. If we win there its gravy all the way. My Donald apple totem is in the fairy glen and now completely disintegrated. Bye bye baby man. i hope you can be recycled into a better person, Someone who has not been carved out of a fascist banana. Blessing to all as we slide into a blue home base... there’s no place like home!
Lovely to see you trying informal Welsh Daniel. Here in Cardiff we say Shwmae - says a Welsh learner. Unfortunately I've never mastered my mother tongue.
Cardiff, relatives in Leeds, Manchester. Her brothers emigrated to Cincinnati, Minnesota and Mexico. My dad, born 1910 in Pennsyltucky spoke fluent Welsh.
Da iawn. Yes, lots of Welsh people left for Pennsylvania and Ohio. "Off to Philadelphia in the morning". My great grandfather came to the Welsh coal mines to escape the pogroms. A small world. We're united by a loathing of Trump and a yearning for President Harris. I wish I could do more. Donating to Harris/Walz campaign is not allowed, however generic GOTV campaigns are allowed to accept funds and I hope my donations help. Very best wishes Daniel - Dymuniadau gorau iawn.
These comments are so cool. So many threads weaving themselves together. Wherever we roam home is where the heart is. And if one heart could contain the whole world of souls striving not for the perfect but for the good. Well, that is what is going to happen when space and time meet and we figure out this whole crazy thing.... together one day at a time.
Simon is right about Texas. Changing demographics will turn that state…. Eventually. Obama lost Texas by 15.8; Hilary lost Texas by 9; Biden lost Texas by 5.6.
But it would be political malpractice to spend money there in 2024. The future is coming, though.
Tom DeLay’s neighborhood (Fort Bend County) by Houston has gone blue.
Fort Bend County
2020: D+ 10.6 points
2016: D+ 6.6 points
2012: R+ 6.8 points
2008: R+ 2.4 point
2004: R+ 15.3 points
2000: R+ 21.5 points
Look at Collin County … north Dallas area) GOPers used to carry Collin by plus 40 points. Harris could flip this fast-growing area.
Our internal data is favorable....we need a push on registrations. Abortion. Marijuana. Hopefully the Haitian vote is the ace in the hole. Anecdotally, many MAGA voters are flipping over the Ukraine issue, "suckers or losers" and "slit your own throat" vis a vis "Sunset" Rick Scott.
What I wish they could do --- and I recognize it might not work --- is to try to connect hostility to Haitian refugees to the experiences of Venezuelan and Cuban refugees from political violence. In other words, why should it just be the Haitian vote we might go get? Is it such a big stretch for 2nd or 3rd generation Cuban-Americans to see their path reflected in Haitian refugees? Or Venezuelan refugees who are even more recent?
I mean, I'm a 3rd generation natural-born citizen from people (mostly) who left Ireland due to lack of opportunity or even poverty there. Why should Haitians be treated differently than my relatives? Everyone should be horrified by attacks on Haitians.
I think Mucarsel-Powell, based on her personal experiences, should be able to make the case. I'm not sure this is their focus, but I would think you could talk to those communities and maybe move some votes.
Our internal data shows that Venezuelan citizens trend Democratic. Cuban Americans 62% MAGAT. Lots of similar groups. PRs in central Florida have been trending Republican.
The Cuban community gets a steady flow of propaganda and despite the fact that most immigrants benefitted from the 1966 Cuban Adjustment Act and the fact that Trump is Putin's ally, the white majority is not willing to vote against the caudillo. Many of them see themselves as grandees, superiors, entitled under the Spanish Hildago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidalgo_(nobility)
On the border 100,000+ Cubans are denied entry in part due to opposition by the 3 Cuban American Batistianos that represent us in Congress.
I am author of Breaking Up with Cuba and the novel Miami 90, which discuss some of this.
Nevertheless, I remain optimistic that we can 1. increase our number dramatically before registration is closed Oct. 7 and 2. GOTV kicks in. We ae told the DNC has 70,000 volunteers state wide.
Very interesting. I think some of those things I knew/understood at some level. But I keep thinking that after a few generations these things should change. I would have thought that younger Cuban-Americans are less likely to be reflexively Republicans.
I was in HS in NJ in 1988, 80%+ of my classed lauded Michael Milken and wanted prison for anyone on welfare caught shoplifting. And my town was almost entirely catholic
Fascinating and informative post, Daniel. There needs to be far more focus on the pro-MAGA propagand aimed at Hispanics. Unfortunately, the insult "Comrade Kamala" resonates amongst some of the groups you mention.
Another point: after a change of ownership, Univision has become very pro-Trump.
I saw their video about The Villages -- serious K enthusiasts with signs, volunteers 24/7 postcards to Vote Yes on 4 and and vehicle parades. And they are usually conservatives!?!
“The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced that it is making a multimillion-dollar investment in TV ads in the Texas and Florida Senate races, which it said are aimed at holding Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida “accountable for their unpopular records and agenda.”
Good! I think they hesitated before because they did not have the money - Florida and Texas are expensive media markets - and also maybe thought that FL/TX were too long a shot. I’m very glad to see them investing in ads in FL and TX. We DO have a chance in both states, now, as well as enough money to Scrooge McDuck dive into it.
Once Texas has gone blue due to shifting demographics, it’s not great trick for Dems to win. The question is whether we could win in TX (and/or Florida) NOW if we spent money there.
Polls and trends and more indicate that Florida is within reach for Deb Mucarsel-Powell (I think she’ll beat Rick Scott), and possibly also within reach for Kamala Harris.
I have said it before: My dream scenario on election night is to see both North Carolina and Florida called early for Harris!
I was blown away by K's speech on the economy! It's hard for me to imagine many not taken in by the simplicity and optimism of her ideas, a leader targeting their needs (if they listened). And then a speech on Ukraine! What a day!!
Too risky. The electoral college system has turned national elections into an absurdity where all the marbles end up in 6-8 states.
Texas has so many media markets and 4 of the country’s 10 largest cities. So expensive. Shifting resources to Texas means taking them away from states around which the election hinges.
National gop strategist Whit Ayers once told me if his party loses Texas, it’s gonna get grim. 40 EV votes today. 42 or 43 after 2030. Not enough Wyomings and Idahos and Montanas and Dakotas to recover 40 EC votes.
We see about 90,000 more Texas “whites” die every year than Texas Hispanics. And we see about 400,000 Texans turn 18 every year.
I think some investments should be made in Alred’s race. He stands a chance against the universally despised Ted Cruz. But I do agree: Texas is prohibitively expense – it would be a mistake for the Harris Campaign to pull resources out of swing states to try to conquer Texas for Harris.
I’d like to see Allred go hard for the Hispanic vote via relatively inexpensive Spanish language .
Hispanic families need to know that Cruz opposes Dreamers and the Dream Act. And they need to know the implications and consequences of that.
They need to know that Cruz voted against the infrastructure bill. He voted against better and safer roads and bridges for Texas families. He voted against addressing traffic congestion. We drive more than 800 MILLION MILES A DAY on Texas streets, roads and highways.
More than 80 percent of our Texas highway construction work force are Hispanic crew members. He voted against good paying jobs when he opposed the infrastructure bill.
This is such positive news...some keep saying FL and TX are out of reach (otherwise Schumer/Peters would put money into those races), but I didn't want to give up on them. This gives me renewed hope. Thanks for posting!
The money we give to the Harris-Walz campaign is being well spent. This morning I learned from a relative working with Wisconsin Dems the Harris-Walz campaign announced a: "multi-million dollar investment in television advertising for the Texas and Florida Senate races."
Furthermore:
The DSCC previously announced funding for:
"A $25 million investment in direct voter contact programs across 10 states: (AZ, FL, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, TX and WI).
A “$79M advertising onslaught” in 9 states (AZ, FL, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, TX, and WI);
A multi-million dollar investment to fund organizing staff in MT and OH, and offices in five states (MT, NV, OH, PA, and WI);
Funding on the ground staff focused on Republican accountability in 10 states (AZ, FL, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, TX and WI).
All of this plus the amazing voter registration drives going on all over the country do help reduce my anxiety. The campaign of the other side is falling apart with incredible mismanagement, really poor messaging. The other side is undoubtedly spending huge amounts of money on legal fees for his many indictments and the many lawsuits they have filed in an attempt to suppress voting in this election.
I was going to post this but ya beat me to it, @Linda. I got clued in when I got an email from Force Multiplier saying they're now having an event with and supporting Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. As a resident of Texas, I'm thrilled to see money spent on Colin Allred bc if Beto could get within 2.5% of Cruz, Colin hopefully should be able to do better.
The Democratic campaign leaders and arms know what they are doing, and they have the cash to invest in expensive FL and TX to give Mucarsel-Powell and Allred more of a chance. This makes me happy.
I am confused. Most of the other Substack writers tell us to ignore polls, yet you base your daily newsletter on them. What’s up with that? If you have time, please advise.
I wouldn't say Simon bases his daily newsletter entirely on polls. He presents polling data, analyzes it and comments on it. Nationally, he's considered a respected expert on the subject. There is also always a lot of other information, inspiration and action plans that I personally find inspiring. I'm 66 years old and, shamefully, this is the FIRST TIME I have ever volunteered and actually did the work to help advance the Democratic cause. I'm doing that because this amazing Hopium community has demonstrated that data-driven information and expert analysis combined with working hard and worrying less is a winning strategy. It also keeps me from losing my sanity. If Hopium is Kool-AID, more please!!
Words of the day: "Fuckery, cheating, corrupting, info warring is what they are all about." Brilliantly captures what's happening, doesn't it? Thanks Simon! I needed a good laugh to start my day.
Well, I checked the urban dictionary, and find the definition of fuckery to be deficient (equivalent to BS). I'll venture a definition. Fuckerky. A particularly malicious and deceitful form of no-good behavior that is done for personal gain.
Simon, I only listen to you. I have read about these other polls and was concerned but reading this latest post from you, oh silly me!
I feel very positive about November but I know it is not over until it is over. I am keeping the faith and won't be side tracked by all the noise. Thanks for all your hard work and great knowledge on these races! Here's to a great tomorrow in November!
Quick question…was the Kansas abortion referendum in 2022 well funded by democrats or was it truly a grassroots movement that over performed without a lot of blue money?
Hi team, thanks for all you do. In the spirit of making sure that every eligible voter is registered and is able to vote, if your family, friends or neighbors have any voting related questions or issues (including at the polls) please suggest they call the national non-partisan Voter Protection hotline for help. You or they can call 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683) to get voting help from a trained Election Protection volunteer. The hotline also has hotlines for several languages other than English. It is run by the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights under the Law. Thanks!
Editor here. “Midnight next Tuesday, September 30th” is ambiguous, as it’s Monday that’s the thirtieth, and you presumably want people to give before midnight, when it turns into Tuesday, October 1. You may wish to reword for clarity.
That said, I will be giving more, and a batch of postcards is going out tomorrow. Thanks for your tireless efforts.
Just donated to the 'all 15 house races' link. Last night my friends and I did our 5th phonebank together for the Harris-Walz campaign, we plan to do many more, LFG!
WOW! What an ad!
Vote Forward just added letter writing campaigns to Florida, Missouri, and Texas: https://votefwd.org/district/FL_2024_C3_STATE Targets young voters and reproductive freedom amendments.
New Colorado polling, including Latino voters: https://www.denverpost.com/2024/09/26/colorado-polls-kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-election/?share=tnuidspmd0ds2e4nloon
Let's go and win this!
I love Vote Forward!
The more the better! This could make a real difference when it comes to state and local offices. Which 1) really do make more of a difference in one’s day to day life than federal politics, and 2) are the Democrats’ future seed corn, or farm team, or whatever agricultural metaphor you wish to employ.
I love writing these letters. Somehow I feel a personal connection to each person who will receive them. I'm currently writing to the NC young voters. Let's do this! Oh, and my daughter just requested a mail-in ballot here in Maryland. She's an RN and sometimes does a 16 hour shift (ugh!). Hopefully, not on November 5th, but she's covered now. We're all in for Angela Alsobrooks as well.
Just signed up for a PA campaign, LFG! Thanks for sharing this!
Nice Jewish boy Simon Rosenberg uses the word “fuckery” means it’s getting real and the scam by right wing pollsters is clear. Good news for dems. Right wing knows they losing because their candidate is the worst possible person for the job.
Goniffs.
I'd highly recommend MIchael Podhorzer's exhaustive analysis of this and recent elections today. In short, it's down to whether new voters actually vote ( the majority vote for Dems even if they are not Dems themselves, but indies ) and whether enough people feel they have more to lose under trump than Harris. That's what elections are about these days; a belief that the other side is intolerable. He makes no suggestions here but it seems people, especially new voters, need to be shown what an asshole trump really is, over and over and in clear language. Forget about his voters turning much; if you've talked to any, you know they are impossible to de-program. Podhorzer thinks the PV is something we will win, but the swing states are harder to call, and I think we all know that. hence, the right wing polls in NC and PA trying to work the refs; this means they aren't focused on AZ and NV so much ( IMO ); it can't be because they think they have them locked up....and Podhorzer notes how tough it is to really poll NV which had a lot of out migration after COVID. He doesn't think much of polls in any case; panels, he notes, show a much more steady race. They survey the same group all the time. It is fascinating stuff, and I wonder what Simon thinks about this writer, who seems to be highly respected in some circles.
LINK?
https://www.weekendreading.net/p/kamala-harris-will-win-the-popular?publication_id=808381&post_id=149428413&isFreemail=true&r=2ahyqp&triedRedirect=true
Thank you David
Same here. i never mastered links, I should have pointed to his Substack.
Amazing, detailed, instructive analysis — especially about undecideds.
I’ve read stuff that Dems are concerned about MT senate
Rasmussen dropping that MT poll makes me think things aren’t so dire
Simon, I cannot tell you (enough) how I wait for your words every day, how I send them to others, how I am doing the work you are calling for. Thank you. I don't think I'd sleep at all without you. Question: What are we learning from early voting in VA and elsewhere at this point? I know the turnout is high. Is the news there good for Ds?
I will start reporting on the early vote next week.
GREAT NEWS! I was going to ask when we the info would be availalbe
In the meantime, Prof. Michael McDonald and his Election Project is compiling data on the Early Vote. Here is his Twitter/X feed:
https://nitter.poast.org/ElectProject
And here is his Early Vote Tracker:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
As of right now:
– Total Early Votes: 232,808
– In-Person Early Votes: 161,342
– Mail Ballots Returned: 71,466
– Mail Ballots Requested: 43,616,638 (Includes states that have all-mail-in voting)
You can hover your cursor over individual states in his Hex Map, and click on the state name to see the known breakdowns.
NB. Party affiliation is known for only approx 35k of the 233k votes cast. However, Tom Bonier and his TargetSmart has sophisticated methods for extrapolating more info about party affiliation. I am sure we can look forward to that expanded data later, from Tom or Simon.
---------------------------------
Party Total
Voted Percent
---------------------------------
Democrat 21,727 62.5 %
Republican 6,921 19.9 %
None/Minor 6,100 17.6 %
TOTAL 34,748 100 %
My gosh, thank you. I have been searching at all hours of the night for this information. I am so appreciative.
Mid-day Early Votes update: 277,857 total. These states have passed 10k:
Virginia: 180,212
Minnesota: 32,788
Wisconsin: 27,907
New Jersey: 21,486
These four states account for 262,393 of the votes so far, of 16 states reporting.
Thank you, again. I've grown so confused about this. Washington Post saying the Ds will still have an early voter advantage (thanks to polling about voter intentions) over Rs in early voting but Fox News (not that I watch it, just reading the reporting) saying the GOP is all in and will bank many early votes. Tom Bonier warning against the Fox reporting (and of course I believe Tom over Fox). I just — well, I just keep reading and reading and reading wanting to know for sure. I so appreciate your sharing this data. Now I'm checking it obsessively, too.
McDonald lists which states report each type of subdata, such as party affiliation, gender, age, ethnicity etc. It’s just a few states But clearly Democrats are racking up an advantage.
Apparently Fox News’ polls are rather accurate. Other than that, I wouldn’t trust them further than I can throw Sean Hannity.
It seems like that to me, too. I've been watching the vote tallies in Northern VA, heavily Democratic, and it's pretty inspiring. What worried me is the vote tallies are high in rural Virginia, too. But I'm going with your sense about all of this. As for throwing certain individuals ...
I think that for most MAGATs the economy issue is merely a pretext for race hatred. 90% of MAGATS vote against their own economic and physical well being. "slit their own throat." The media should be showing some of the charts that Simon produced. Jobs created. Jobs lost. Trump was/is a disaster. Ironically the Biden CHIPS and infrastructure job gains are mostly to red states.
Meanwhile, none of the so called polling "experts" who rely on "likely" voters' data seem to care that there may be a tsunami of new blue voters. Think FT 6, David Hogg, Taylor Swift, etc. As I've been saying, those figures are available. The DNC has VAT and VAN that can show new voters are they are registered. According to FT 6 data from 2022, these folks are, to a reasonable degree of probability, going to vote. https://www.fieldteam6.org/impact-report-2021-22-d1
As a matter of fundamentals, "Today, there are about 91 million Americans who have voted for Biden and House Democrats since 2016, and about 83 million who have voted for Trump or House Republicans. If this pool of voters votes that way again, and if they constitute 80 percent of those voting in 2024 (a fairly conservative assumption), then the other 20 percent of voters would have to favor Trump by 18 points for him to overcome that deficit." Podheizer.
Not to mention enthusiasm and new registrations favor Democrats. FT 6 phone banks to FL and PA today. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
I agree with you about the falseness of “economic anxiety” turning people into MAGAts. Most really poor people either don’t vote at all, or they vote Democratic (more people with incomes under 30K voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016). Your MAGAts are your “American Gentry” as Patrick Wyman and Sarah Taber both put it. They’re the exurban used car dealers, or dentists with boats. They have plenty of money, but think that women and Those People need to know their proper places.
I'm sorry to report that many of them are SSI recipients, VA recipients, retirees etc. who rely on Social Security and Medicare and slit their own throats.
Celebrating my birthday here in Wales. Voted electronically in the USA election today! So cuffed as they say in my country of residence. I put a donate to N Carolina link up on FB for the day. If we win there its gravy all the way. My Donald apple totem is in the fairy glen and now completely disintegrated. Bye bye baby man. i hope you can be recycled into a better person, Someone who has not been carved out of a fascist banana. Blessing to all as we slide into a blue home base... there’s no place like home!
Shumai.
Lovely to see you trying informal Welsh Daniel. Here in Cardiff we say Shwmae - says a Welsh learner. Unfortunately I've never mastered my mother tongue.
My grandma spoke Yiddish and English with a Welsh accent. I can still sing many songs from my childhood. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FhOF-lA6EQ
We used to have a large Jewish community in Cardiff. Where was your Grandma from?
Cardiff, relatives in Leeds, Manchester. Her brothers emigrated to Cincinnati, Minnesota and Mexico. My dad, born 1910 in Pennsyltucky spoke fluent Welsh.
Da iawn. Yes, lots of Welsh people left for Pennsylvania and Ohio. "Off to Philadelphia in the morning". My great grandfather came to the Welsh coal mines to escape the pogroms. A small world. We're united by a loathing of Trump and a yearning for President Harris. I wish I could do more. Donating to Harris/Walz campaign is not allowed, however generic GOTV campaigns are allowed to accept funds and I hope my donations help. Very best wishes Daniel - Dymuniadau gorau iawn.
These comments are so cool. So many threads weaving themselves together. Wherever we roam home is where the heart is. And if one heart could contain the whole world of souls striving not for the perfect but for the good. Well, that is what is going to happen when space and time meet and we figure out this whole crazy thing.... together one day at a time.
Enjoy God's own country Robin.
Thank you thank you! Get all your American friends there to do the same, LFG!
Don't know why it says 'American???" :) I meant pro-Kamala friends, not enough coffee, I guess :)
Simon is right about Texas. Changing demographics will turn that state…. Eventually. Obama lost Texas by 15.8; Hilary lost Texas by 9; Biden lost Texas by 5.6.
But it would be political malpractice to spend money there in 2024. The future is coming, though.
Tom DeLay’s neighborhood (Fort Bend County) by Houston has gone blue.
Fort Bend County
2020: D+ 10.6 points
2016: D+ 6.6 points
2012: R+ 6.8 points
2008: R+ 2.4 point
2004: R+ 15.3 points
2000: R+ 21.5 points
Look at Collin County … north Dallas area) GOPers used to carry Collin by plus 40 points. Harris could flip this fast-growing area.
Collin County
2020: R+ 4.4 points
2016: R+ 16.7 points
2012: R+ 24.5 points
2008: R+ 25.5 points
2004: R+ 43.1 points
2000: R+ 48.6 points
I wish we could at least flip FL back to a battleground. I think Mucarsel-Powell has a real shot, and, at worst, Harris will come close to taking FL.
Our internal data is favorable....we need a push on registrations. Abortion. Marijuana. Hopefully the Haitian vote is the ace in the hole. Anecdotally, many MAGA voters are flipping over the Ukraine issue, "suckers or losers" and "slit your own throat" vis a vis "Sunset" Rick Scott.
Hope you're right Daniel. Scott does seem - well, mad. Cadaverous and reptilian. He wants to be next Senate leader?
"Cadaverous and reptilian" - my favorite derogatory phrase from now on.
Excellent imagery.
What I wish they could do --- and I recognize it might not work --- is to try to connect hostility to Haitian refugees to the experiences of Venezuelan and Cuban refugees from political violence. In other words, why should it just be the Haitian vote we might go get? Is it such a big stretch for 2nd or 3rd generation Cuban-Americans to see their path reflected in Haitian refugees? Or Venezuelan refugees who are even more recent?
I mean, I'm a 3rd generation natural-born citizen from people (mostly) who left Ireland due to lack of opportunity or even poverty there. Why should Haitians be treated differently than my relatives? Everyone should be horrified by attacks on Haitians.
I think Mucarsel-Powell, based on her personal experiences, should be able to make the case. I'm not sure this is their focus, but I would think you could talk to those communities and maybe move some votes.
Our internal data shows that Venezuelan citizens trend Democratic. Cuban Americans 62% MAGAT. Lots of similar groups. PRs in central Florida have been trending Republican.
The Cuban community gets a steady flow of propaganda and despite the fact that most immigrants benefitted from the 1966 Cuban Adjustment Act and the fact that Trump is Putin's ally, the white majority is not willing to vote against the caudillo. Many of them see themselves as grandees, superiors, entitled under the Spanish Hildago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidalgo_(nobility)
On the border 100,000+ Cubans are denied entry in part due to opposition by the 3 Cuban American Batistianos that represent us in Congress.
I am author of Breaking Up with Cuba and the novel Miami 90, which discuss some of this.
Our problems include motivating our potential base. We have internal problems that are oblivious to the DNC. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/black-lives-matter-faces-backlash-statement-cuba-protest-rcna1438
Nevertheless, I remain optimistic that we can 1. increase our number dramatically before registration is closed Oct. 7 and 2. GOTV kicks in. We ae told the DNC has 70,000 volunteers state wide.
Very interesting. I think some of those things I knew/understood at some level. But I keep thinking that after a few generations these things should change. I would have thought that younger Cuban-Americans are less likely to be reflexively Republicans.
Unfortunately....worse.
My first teaching gig was at a Catholic HS in 1988 in NJ in the inner city; lots of Cubans. Boy did I get shredded for supporting Dukaikis.
I was in HS in NJ in 1988, 80%+ of my classed lauded Michael Milken and wanted prison for anyone on welfare caught shoplifting. And my town was almost entirely catholic
Fascinating and informative post, Daniel. There needs to be far more focus on the pro-MAGA propagand aimed at Hispanics. Unfortunately, the insult "Comrade Kamala" resonates amongst some of the groups you mention.
Another point: after a change of ownership, Univision has become very pro-Trump.
We have our own Hopium words to let people know about Kamala Harris.
trump doesn't need our help talking about him.
Meidas Touch is reporting lots of messages from Floridians about serious enthusiasm there.
I saw their video about The Villages -- serious K enthusiasts with signs, volunteers 24/7 postcards to Vote Yes on 4 and and vehicle parades. And they are usually conservatives!?!
“The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced that it is making a multimillion-dollar investment in TV ads in the Texas and Florida Senate races, which it said are aimed at holding Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida “accountable for their unpopular records and agenda.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/trump-harris-election-live-updates-rcna172164
Good! I think they hesitated before because they did not have the money - Florida and Texas are expensive media markets - and also maybe thought that FL/TX were too long a shot. I’m very glad to see them investing in ads in FL and TX. We DO have a chance in both states, now, as well as enough money to Scrooge McDuck dive into it.
I love that Scott in FL is now refusing to debate HIS female opponent who is also strong: the women are scaring the men.
He's not a real man. He's a fucking weasel.
Once Texas has gone blue due to shifting demographics, it’s not great trick for Dems to win. The question is whether we could win in TX (and/or Florida) NOW if we spent money there.
Polls and trends and more indicate that Florida is within reach for Deb Mucarsel-Powell (I think she’ll beat Rick Scott), and possibly also within reach for Kamala Harris.
I have said it before: My dream scenario on election night is to see both North Carolina and Florida called early for Harris!
I was blown away by K's speech on the economy! It's hard for me to imagine many not taken in by the simplicity and optimism of her ideas, a leader targeting their needs (if they listened). And then a speech on Ukraine! What a day!!
Too risky. The electoral college system has turned national elections into an absurdity where all the marbles end up in 6-8 states.
Texas has so many media markets and 4 of the country’s 10 largest cities. So expensive. Shifting resources to Texas means taking them away from states around which the election hinges.
National gop strategist Whit Ayers once told me if his party loses Texas, it’s gonna get grim. 40 EV votes today. 42 or 43 after 2030. Not enough Wyomings and Idahos and Montanas and Dakotas to recover 40 EC votes.
We see about 90,000 more Texas “whites” die every year than Texas Hispanics. And we see about 400,000 Texans turn 18 every year.
The math is adding up.
I think some investments should be made in Alred’s race. He stands a chance against the universally despised Ted Cruz. But I do agree: Texas is prohibitively expense – it would be a mistake for the Harris Campaign to pull resources out of swing states to try to conquer Texas for Harris.
"But it would be political malpractice to spend money there in 2024."
Maybe not. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee today announced a "multi-million-dollar" ad buy in Texas and Florida targeting Cruz and Scott. Could be a feint, but I think it's money well-spent to keep these states in play. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4900589-senate-democrats-campaign-arm-ted-cruz-rick-scott-target-ads/
Oh… yeah… I think spending money in the Texas Senate race makes sense.
Ah, then we agree. See my response to you above.
I’d like to see Allred go hard for the Hispanic vote via relatively inexpensive Spanish language .
Hispanic families need to know that Cruz opposes Dreamers and the Dream Act. And they need to know the implications and consequences of that.
They need to know that Cruz voted against the infrastructure bill. He voted against better and safer roads and bridges for Texas families. He voted against addressing traffic congestion. We drive more than 800 MILLION MILES A DAY on Texas streets, roads and highways.
More than 80 percent of our Texas highway construction work force are Hispanic crew members. He voted against good paying jobs when he opposed the infrastructure bill.
Hispanic families need to know.
.
you meant "good jobs" or "well-paying jobs"; "Good paying jobs" is GOP english..!
Good one… I would benefit from you following me around and cleaning up :)
sorry...now and again, the visage of my 6th grade English teacher rises up and compels me to act on her behalf...
This is such positive news...some keep saying FL and TX are out of reach (otherwise Schumer/Peters would put money into those races), but I didn't want to give up on them. This gives me renewed hope. Thanks for posting!
The money we give to the Harris-Walz campaign is being well spent. This morning I learned from a relative working with Wisconsin Dems the Harris-Walz campaign announced a: "multi-million dollar investment in television advertising for the Texas and Florida Senate races."
Furthermore:
The DSCC previously announced funding for:
"A $25 million investment in direct voter contact programs across 10 states: (AZ, FL, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, TX and WI).
A “$79M advertising onslaught” in 9 states (AZ, FL, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, TX, and WI);
A multi-million dollar investment to fund organizing staff in MT and OH, and offices in five states (MT, NV, OH, PA, and WI);
Funding on the ground staff focused on Republican accountability in 10 states (AZ, FL, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, TX and WI).
Link: https://www.dscc.org/news/dscc-announces-new-multi-million-dollar-tv-investment-in-tx-and-fl/
All of this plus the amazing voter registration drives going on all over the country do help reduce my anxiety. The campaign of the other side is falling apart with incredible mismanagement, really poor messaging. The other side is undoubtedly spending huge amounts of money on legal fees for his many indictments and the many lawsuits they have filed in an attempt to suppress voting in this election.
I was going to post this but ya beat me to it, @Linda. I got clued in when I got an email from Force Multiplier saying they're now having an event with and supporting Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. As a resident of Texas, I'm thrilled to see money spent on Colin Allred bc if Beto could get within 2.5% of Cruz, Colin hopefully should be able to do better.
The Democratic campaign leaders and arms know what they are doing, and they have the cash to invest in expensive FL and TX to give Mucarsel-Powell and Allred more of a chance. This makes me happy.
I am confused. Most of the other Substack writers tell us to ignore polls, yet you base your daily newsletter on them. What’s up with that? If you have time, please advise.
Can't ignore polls. They are part of our discourse. So I try to help manage and interpret them. Ignoring polls in my view is not an option.
How about a post on the details of a "good" pollster versus a biased one. The devil is obviously in the details...
I wouldn't say Simon bases his daily newsletter entirely on polls. He presents polling data, analyzes it and comments on it. Nationally, he's considered a respected expert on the subject. There is also always a lot of other information, inspiration and action plans that I personally find inspiring. I'm 66 years old and, shamefully, this is the FIRST TIME I have ever volunteered and actually did the work to help advance the Democratic cause. I'm doing that because this amazing Hopium community has demonstrated that data-driven information and expert analysis combined with working hard and worrying less is a winning strategy. It also keeps me from losing my sanity. If Hopium is Kool-AID, more please!!
I think of Hopium as a fine wine, not Kool-Aid.
and maga drank all the kool-aid already
We get the good stuff. Cheers!
Well, I function well when I can focus on data, I can't sit by helplessly and worry. Some people must have lots of free time.
Not all polling is equal.
Pay attention to credible polls. Ignore the bad ones.
Words of the day: "Fuckery, cheating, corrupting, info warring is what they are all about." Brilliantly captures what's happening, doesn't it? Thanks Simon! I needed a good laugh to start my day.
Well, I checked the urban dictionary, and find the definition of fuckery to be deficient (equivalent to BS). I'll venture a definition. Fuckerky. A particularly malicious and deceitful form of no-good behavior that is done for personal gain.
Simon, I only listen to you. I have read about these other polls and was concerned but reading this latest post from you, oh silly me!
I feel very positive about November but I know it is not over until it is over. I am keeping the faith and won't be side tracked by all the noise. Thanks for all your hard work and great knowledge on these races! Here's to a great tomorrow in November!
Quick question…was the Kansas abortion referendum in 2022 well funded by democrats or was it truly a grassroots movement that over performed without a lot of blue money?
there was lots of choice money there and it was very well funded
And the polling for that ballot measure was completely off (by double digits I believe).
Hi team, thanks for all you do. In the spirit of making sure that every eligible voter is registered and is able to vote, if your family, friends or neighbors have any voting related questions or issues (including at the polls) please suggest they call the national non-partisan Voter Protection hotline for help. You or they can call 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683) to get voting help from a trained Election Protection volunteer. The hotline also has hotlines for several languages other than English. It is run by the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights under the Law. Thanks!
Editor here. “Midnight next Tuesday, September 30th” is ambiguous, as it’s Monday that’s the thirtieth, and you presumably want people to give before midnight, when it turns into Tuesday, October 1. You may wish to reword for clarity.
That said, I will be giving more, and a batch of postcards is going out tomorrow. Thanks for your tireless efforts.
Just donated to the 'all 15 house races' link. Last night my friends and I did our 5th phonebank together for the Harris-Walz campaign, we plan to do many more, LFG!