Someone mentioned Rachel Bitecofer and I heard her say, and I've no proof this is true, that it is really right wing forces that are stirring up the far left on this issue to hurt Biden. It makes sense, and she is not one to dismiss out of hand. Have a great week, all. Keep the faith.
Good morning Hopium community: I'm still feeling good after Biden hit it out of the park at the SOTU on Thursday, and I love the new ad. As Simon wrote, North Carolina is super important (even more so after Super Tuesday when some very extreme characters won the Republican primary for statewide offices, including/especially their Holocaust denying/anti-women, anti-LGBTQ candidate for Governor, Mark Robinson). Join Markers For Democracy and our co-hosts, including Jessica Craven on Monday, March 11th at 7:30 pm for a conversation with North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton. Anderson will be introduced by none other than Simon Rosenberg. RSVP here: https://www.mobilize.us/markersfordemocracy/event/608432/
Thank you for this! Every R on the NC ballot is a dumpster fire. Beyond Trump and Robinson the Rs are offering Michelle Morrow for NC Superintendent of schools, a home-school parent who has vowed to cut funding for all public education. And Dan Bishop, the author of the bathroom bill is running for AG. Your funds are going to help us North Carolinians in so many races that we cannot lose.
I was astounded that Michelle Morrow beat Catherine Truett. Michelle Morrow is completely unqualified to be Superintendent of Public Instruction. Just because she's homeschooled her kids doesn't qualify her to lead NC's public schools. I was a public school teacher; and I was so busy covering the required objectives for the end of year testing, political indoctrination was the last thing on my mind. I did try to indoctrinate my 1st and 2nd graders to keep their hands to themselves and raise their hand to speak, get their work done, etc.
I was not a fan of Catherine Truett, but she is more qualified than Michelle Morrow.
My “tribe” donated to NC in February. I know others did as well. I will continue to spread the word about the importance of voting Blue up and down ballot in NC. Unfortunately you’ve got some real losers on the Republican side.
Good luck to all you proud NC Democrats!!! We’re behind you all the way!
Harry Enten has a very pessimistic column this morning that implies a Biden win is close to impossible. He cites certain infamous polls but not your newest ones which are important because of the trend lines. Pessimism as a psychological protective device?
Honestly, Harry is another "expert" I feel has sold out in a way. I used to listen to him when he was with 538, but when I've listened to him on CNN, he's sounded very generic, very obvious - at least the couple times I've bothered to tune in. I guess that's just another person to prove wrong?! I accept the challenge!
Agreed - 2 instances is not even close to enough at all - which is why I'm not paying attention to what Enten or similar people say. I'm less & less convinced that approval ratings are predictive of any electoral outcome.
Look the fundamental problem with the people who analyze polls is that polls have become more unreliable, and there are lots of other ways people in the business assess the health of a party or candidate - arguments, money, organization, candidate performance, winning and losing elections - that is not available to them, or they choose to make unavailable to them. When I assess things polls are only a piece of what I look at it, which is a central reason why I got 2022 right when almost everyone got it wrong; and why I think I will be right again this time.
Simon, any news from Tom Bonier? I would think he’d have some worthwhile analysis of recent developments. Strangely, Bonier’s last post on Threads is more than 3 weeks old. (I can no longer see recent Twitter posts.)
I agree Simon…. I feel like a big swath of the punditry are completely disconnected in particular with this decentralized citizen-led but very well targeted elections centered activism machine. Once you’re aware of it, you see the its fingerprints everywhere, but if you don’t know about it, it’s hidden in plain sight. It’s impossible for me to examine the positives we have to run on (both record of accomplishments & future vision), hard money financial advantage, infrastructural & formal organizational advantage, and just the fact that the entire commentariat can’t seem to quit their addiction of massively underestimating Joe Biden allowing for him to repeatedly exceed expectations handily, and not feel like we have the upper hand here. I just profoundly believe that if we do the work, we’re gonna win, and pretty decisively. And while the polls have been erratic and confusing, they do nothing to change any of what I just listed, and Trump & Rs don’t and can’t match up with us this cycle on any of it…. I like our chances lot
Not to mention he has One felony criminal trial starting in 2 weeks and there is still a great chance we can get the January 6th trial in before the Election. We have great reasons to be hopeful. I'm so so sick of the negativity from the pundits. Trump has done absolutely nothing to expand his Voter base. Nothing. That I'm aware of anyway.
Not to promote another site, but just to provide additional info, there is a good diary up at DKOS right now on this very topic, by diarist called lojo, who was a pollster at one time, and it goes into the problems with today's polling, which is at odds with what the reality on the ground is. Diarist even quotes Simon at the end! Worth your time to look it over.
Going deep and detailed requires more time and effort with less clicks. Joe Biden’s been a good president, fighting for us. When voters hear about what he’s done to make their lives better, his approval goes up. It takes us working hard, but we can get there together.
As it happens I just listened to a discussion on Joe Trippi's podcast and it is well worth your time, it's called That Trippi Show and he really goes into how hard it is to do polling and why you shouldn't get hung up about it. OTOH he also says don't read too much into it if Biden is a little ahead; basically the race is tied. He feels trump has a ceiling of 45% no matter what, and the only concern he seemed to have is 3rd party effects in swing states. So we can compare different pundits til the cows come home; I think Trippi has a better handle on things than most. Oh, he noted that none of these pollsters, especially the garbage ones, ever asks about Dobbs. That should tell us something. They mainly ask about the border and crime, which IMO is a tell.
Thank you for recording this Wednesday's meeting. Since I am in NC I definitely want to hear what Anderson Clayton has to say, but I am also committed to supporting my friends in their launch of Blue Tennessee. It's at 7:30. Two of my co-Heather's Herders have been instrumental in getting this group off the ground. So, thanks again, as I can do both!
A member of Markers For Democracy is also part of the Blue Tennessee team. I'll be there too. Markers hosted a kick off event for Blue Tennessee last year.
It is getting tough to keep up with all the grassroots groups and Zoom updates!
Two weeks ago I had 4 events within a 2 hr timeframe on a Thurs night - an in-person campaign launch for the state senate race in my district, a monthy donor meeting, a Center for Common Ground update and a Swing Left strategy meeting!!
Robinson as GOP gubernatorial candidate in NC is an incredible gift to Democrats! I am absolutely convinced that Josh Stein will be Roy Cooper’s successor – and that by "gluing" Robinson to Trump, we can flip North Carolina for Biden!
My thoughts exactly. Cheri Beasley should be our Senator right now. So grateful that Simon has committed to making NC a priority. Still will be a tough election for us.
Did you do canvasing in 2020? Door to door? I'm asking this because I understand that COVID stopped us from canvasing but Republicans went on ahead and canvassed anyways. It. Could have made a difference.
it was a problem. I was volunteering for then state rep candidate Sydney Batch -- we were making phone calls and she was encouraging us. As we were phone banking, she said there were Rs on her street going door to door. And she lost. She was later appointed to a state senate seat, so she's still in the NCGA, but it was a good - and icky - lesson: door to door canvassing works.
I love the new Biden general election ad! I hope to see Kamala Harris featured in the future - she’s a woman of substance - with a great smile not sitting in a kitchen! Ha! What a gift that speech was from the R’s…….Biden’s speech was a powerful home run! Addressing the age issue is brilliant. Let’s get to 55!
Poor Katie Britt, bless her heart, will never live that horrible response video down. She was pathetic. So if age is supposedly a disqualifying factor and younger is better, how about this list:
Kevin McCarthy-59, MAGA Mike Johnson-52, Matt Gaetz-41, Marjorie Taylor Greene-49, Lauren Boebert-37, Josh Hawley-44, Ted Cruz-53, Katie Britt-42, etc, etc. All these Republican politicians are much younger than Joe Biden. They have 0 accomplishments except gaining attention for themselves, which indicates that they don't care about ordinary Americans or vulnerable Americans. Let's define vulnerable Americans as pretty much everyone else besides white Republicans. I'll take a decent, substantive person like Joe Biden any day.
Cheryl, Markers For Democracy, Downtown Nasty Women Social Group & Team Min will be hosting Rachel Bitecofer on Monday, March 25th at 10:30 am. Check our newsletter and we will have a Mobilize link soon.
Here's my letter to the Times today to the journalis who wrote it. ________________________________ Thanks for your article explaining that "Americans" want "change" not the same old guys running again. I don't know who or how many Americans you've spoken to, but there are millions of Americans (81 million in 2020) thrilled that Joe Biden is running again. So is the Democratic party leadership. Did you guys watch SOTU and miss that point? His first term record has been great. I am so thankful he's giving 4 more years of service to America this late in his life, and so are millions more os my fellow Democrates. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Yours Merrill Weingrod 4014808003 Let's keep up the pressure. You can write to the journalist at this address shane.goldmacher@nytimes.com
I love the ad! It's smart, funny, and encouraging and makes me proud to be a Democrat. And as far as the polls go, we need to be relentless in our commitment to getting us across the finish line. The time to let up on the gas is after every ballot is counted and not a minute earlier! Happy Saturday, Hopium Family!
It was uplifting to hear Biden speak so forcefully and to draw the lines between authoritarianism and democracy so clearly. I wanted to share a clip from Amanpour's show yesterday that features the progressive messaging researcher Anat Shenker Osorio commenting on Biden's speech. I think she is amazing and offers important guidance on how to message most effectively to hold onto democracy in November. Here's the clip (its about 11 mins): https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2024/03/08/amanpour-golodryga-shenker-osorio-biden-sotu.cnn
If it doesn't highlight you can google amanpour and anat shenker osorio and it will come up.
Christiane Amanpour is the person they should have put in charge of CNN! Let’s face it: Chris Licht and his rightward turn was an unmitigated disaster. I really do wish we could bring back the CNN that was before Ted Turner sold it.
2 notes on this comment: 1) polls can never predict anything, they can just tell you where things are today 2) the polls weren't wrong in 2016. The election was changed by the Comey intervention and took a clear win for us and made it a loss
That’s exactly right! In the aftermath of the election, Prof. Sam Wang did some very detailed analysis of polls that showed a significant movement away from Hillary precisely coinciding with Comey’s intervention.
NB. If I recall correctly, the FBI counterintelligence guy, who was recently charged with working for the Russians, was a key person in that NYC FBI team that convinced Comey to announce his investigation!
Quite a coincidence... Yet another that receives far too little media attention.
The idea that "polls can never predict anything, they can just tell you where things are today" is a savage truth, a brutal wake-up call to the high priests and acolytes of the polling sanctum. To believe in the almighty power of polls is to dance wildly on the edge of a razor, blindfolded and drunk on false certainty. Polls, my friends, are the glittering Las Vegas of political forecasting—a shimmering mirage of precision in the desert of our electoral chaos.
Believing in these snapshots, these brief glimpses into the collective psyche, is akin to trusting a one-eyed psychic with a bad gambling habit. The world spins, people change their minds, and the universe laughs at our attempts to pin down the future with the flimsy darts of today's opinions. Polls are the junk food of political analysis; they offer the instant gratification of feeling informed without any of the substance of true understanding.
And let's not kid ourselves about the so-called science behind these polls. They're cobbled together with assumptions as sturdy as a house of cards in a hurricane. Who decides who's a "likely voter"? A wizard in a backroom, throwing darts at a list of names? The methodology is a dark art, cloaked in statistical jargon, designed to make alchemists green with envy.
The bias, oh, the bias! It seeps into every question, every selection of whom to call, turning these polls into little more than echo chambers, reverberating with the prejudices of their creators. In our brave new world of information overload, finding a truly representative sample is like hunting for a unicorn in a New York City alley—it's a fantasy, a pipe dream.
And yet, the spectacle continues. The media, those ravenous beasts, pounce on every new poll with the frenzy of sharks in a feeding frenzy, distilling complex data into sensational headlines that warp the public's perception. We gobble it up, eager for any scrap that confirms our world view, blissfully unaware that we're being led by the nose.
In the grand scheme, relying on polls to predict the future is like trying to navigate the Colorado River on a raft made of newspaper clippings. They might tell you where you are, but good luck guessing where you're going. The only certainty in this mad dance is change, and the wise will remember that today's gospel is tomorrow's fish wrapper. So, let's raise our glasses to the folly of forecasting and ride the wave of uncertainty with a grin on our faces and a stiff drink in our hands. After all, isn't the unpredictability part of the fun?
As a monthly donor to the Biden/Harris campaign since the end of last year, it's great to see early ads in battle states. Makes me feel my money is well spent with ads well done.
It's going to be about grassroot organizations again as we the people keep the WH in the hands of a true leader. And battle for Congress so Joe can finish the job he intends to do when re-elected.
If Biden didn't run in 2020, we would all be living in a fascist country. Thankfully, he came out of retirement when the stakes were high back then. And now, the stakes are even higher. The best President of my lifetime hands down! Onward!
Actually I said something about him earlier in this thread - in response to someone else mentioning that piece & Simon in turn pointed out that many data analysts either don't or "won't" make things besides poll data. Simon and others are helping me to think about less & less about analysts - at least to stop taking what they say as gospel. I think Harry is probably incentivized to get clicks like most journalists/contributors. Just remember - this is up to ALL OF US - not just Harry, or Nate (Cohn or Silver) or another analyst out there :)
Someone mentioned Rachel Bitecofer and I heard her say, and I've no proof this is true, that it is really right wing forces that are stirring up the far left on this issue to hurt Biden. It makes sense, and she is not one to dismiss out of hand. Have a great week, all. Keep the faith.
Good morning Hopium community: I'm still feeling good after Biden hit it out of the park at the SOTU on Thursday, and I love the new ad. As Simon wrote, North Carolina is super important (even more so after Super Tuesday when some very extreme characters won the Republican primary for statewide offices, including/especially their Holocaust denying/anti-women, anti-LGBTQ candidate for Governor, Mark Robinson). Join Markers For Democracy and our co-hosts, including Jessica Craven on Monday, March 11th at 7:30 pm for a conversation with North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton. Anderson will be introduced by none other than Simon Rosenberg. RSVP here: https://www.mobilize.us/markersfordemocracy/event/608432/
I am signed up! Looking forward to hearing Chair Anderson Clayton again!
Mark Robinson is scary as hell - https://www.realmarkrobinson.com/
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/north-carolina-gop-mark-robinson-women-vote_n_65e7d899e4b0f9d26cacc002?
Thank you for this! Every R on the NC ballot is a dumpster fire. Beyond Trump and Robinson the Rs are offering Michelle Morrow for NC Superintendent of schools, a home-school parent who has vowed to cut funding for all public education. And Dan Bishop, the author of the bathroom bill is running for AG. Your funds are going to help us North Carolinians in so many races that we cannot lose.
Yes, I read about Michelle Morrow and was terrified. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michele-morrow-north-carolina-superintendent-of-public-instruction_n_65e8985ce4b0170871fc97dd
I was astounded that Michelle Morrow beat Catherine Truett. Michelle Morrow is completely unqualified to be Superintendent of Public Instruction. Just because she's homeschooled her kids doesn't qualify her to lead NC's public schools. I was a public school teacher; and I was so busy covering the required objectives for the end of year testing, political indoctrination was the last thing on my mind. I did try to indoctrinate my 1st and 2nd graders to keep their hands to themselves and raise their hand to speak, get their work done, etc.
I was not a fan of Catherine Truett, but she is more qualified than Michelle Morrow.
Hard to believe I'm wishing Catherine Truitt won that election. But here we are. Let's vote for & campaign for Mo Green!!
Dem Mo Green, who is running against her is a great candidate - which reminds me to set up another monthly donation!
https://www.mogreenfornc.com/
My “tribe” donated to NC in February. I know others did as well. I will continue to spread the word about the importance of voting Blue up and down ballot in NC. Unfortunately you’ve got some real losers on the Republican side.
Good luck to all you proud NC Democrats!!! We’re behind you all the way!
💪💙
Thank you, Judy! You all are the best!
So grateful to have Anderson Clayton on our side!
Harry Enten has a very pessimistic column this morning that implies a Biden win is close to impossible. He cites certain infamous polls but not your newest ones which are important because of the trend lines. Pessimism as a psychological protective device?
Honestly, Harry is another "expert" I feel has sold out in a way. I used to listen to him when he was with 538, but when I've listened to him on CNN, he's sounded very generic, very obvious - at least the couple times I've bothered to tune in. I guess that's just another person to prove wrong?! I accept the challenge!
Agreed - 2 instances is not even close to enough at all - which is why I'm not paying attention to what Enten or similar people say. I'm less & less convinced that approval ratings are predictive of any electoral outcome.
Moreover, I - much like Simon - I point to 2022. We all need to let others know what is Hopium members know : not to let their analysis break us !
I'd add, "Hey Harry, polls don't vote, PEOPLE DO!"
Moreover, even pollsters and political pundits only get one vote each.
Look the fundamental problem with the people who analyze polls is that polls have become more unreliable, and there are lots of other ways people in the business assess the health of a party or candidate - arguments, money, organization, candidate performance, winning and losing elections - that is not available to them, or they choose to make unavailable to them. When I assess things polls are only a piece of what I look at it, which is a central reason why I got 2022 right when almost everyone got it wrong; and why I think I will be right again this time.
Simon, any news from Tom Bonier? I would think he’d have some worthwhile analysis of recent developments. Strangely, Bonier’s last post on Threads is more than 3 weeks old. (I can no longer see recent Twitter posts.)
https://www.threads.net/@tombonier
I agree Simon…. I feel like a big swath of the punditry are completely disconnected in particular with this decentralized citizen-led but very well targeted elections centered activism machine. Once you’re aware of it, you see the its fingerprints everywhere, but if you don’t know about it, it’s hidden in plain sight. It’s impossible for me to examine the positives we have to run on (both record of accomplishments & future vision), hard money financial advantage, infrastructural & formal organizational advantage, and just the fact that the entire commentariat can’t seem to quit their addiction of massively underestimating Joe Biden allowing for him to repeatedly exceed expectations handily, and not feel like we have the upper hand here. I just profoundly believe that if we do the work, we’re gonna win, and pretty decisively. And while the polls have been erratic and confusing, they do nothing to change any of what I just listed, and Trump & Rs don’t and can’t match up with us this cycle on any of it…. I like our chances lot
Not to mention he has One felony criminal trial starting in 2 weeks and there is still a great chance we can get the January 6th trial in before the Election. We have great reasons to be hopeful. I'm so so sick of the negativity from the pundits. Trump has done absolutely nothing to expand his Voter base. Nothing. That I'm aware of anyway.
Not to promote another site, but just to provide additional info, there is a good diary up at DKOS right now on this very topic, by diarist called lojo, who was a pollster at one time, and it goes into the problems with today's polling, which is at odds with what the reality on the ground is. Diarist even quotes Simon at the end! Worth your time to look it over.
Controversy gets clicks and it’s easy.
Going deep and detailed requires more time and effort with less clicks. Joe Biden’s been a good president, fighting for us. When voters hear about what he’s done to make their lives better, his approval goes up. It takes us working hard, but we can get there together.
As it happens I just listened to a discussion on Joe Trippi's podcast and it is well worth your time, it's called That Trippi Show and he really goes into how hard it is to do polling and why you shouldn't get hung up about it. OTOH he also says don't read too much into it if Biden is a little ahead; basically the race is tied. He feels trump has a ceiling of 45% no matter what, and the only concern he seemed to have is 3rd party effects in swing states. So we can compare different pundits til the cows come home; I think Trippi has a better handle on things than most. Oh, he noted that none of these pollsters, especially the garbage ones, ever asks about Dobbs. That should tell us something. They mainly ask about the border and crime, which IMO is a tell.
Thank you for recording this Wednesday's meeting. Since I am in NC I definitely want to hear what Anderson Clayton has to say, but I am also committed to supporting my friends in their launch of Blue Tennessee. It's at 7:30. Two of my co-Heather's Herders have been instrumental in getting this group off the ground. So, thanks again, as I can do both!
A member of Markers For Democracy is also part of the Blue Tennessee team. I'll be there too. Markers hosted a kick off event for Blue Tennessee last year.
Donated to NC and starting my NC Vote Forward letters.💲✍️
Robinson is like DeSantis on steroids !😱
Go Blue Tennessee !
💙
Thank You!
Gratefu NC resident
It is getting tough to keep up with all the grassroots groups and Zoom updates!
Two weeks ago I had 4 events within a 2 hr timeframe on a Thurs night - an in-person campaign launch for the state senate race in my district, a monthy donor meeting, a Center for Common Ground update and a Swing Left strategy meeting!!
I understand completely! I’ve never attended so many webinars in my life! I’m going to need a personal secretary soon to keep it all straight!
But each and every one of them adds fuel to my fire!
Robinson as GOP gubernatorial candidate in NC is an incredible gift to Democrats! I am absolutely convinced that Josh Stein will be Roy Cooper’s successor – and that by "gluing" Robinson to Trump, we can flip North Carolina for Biden!
I certainly hope so, but a lot of us here in NC worked incredibly hard in 2020 and still fell short, so I am not taking anything fo granted!
Hear, hear! Have heart – I sincerely believe 2024 will be much better.
(At this very moment, I am watching Simon’s interview with Anderson Clayton.)
My thoughts exactly. Cheri Beasley should be our Senator right now. So grateful that Simon has committed to making NC a priority. Still will be a tough election for us.
Did you do canvasing in 2020? Door to door? I'm asking this because I understand that COVID stopped us from canvasing but Republicans went on ahead and canvassed anyways. It. Could have made a difference.
No I didn't do door-to-door canvassing in 2020. My Swing Left chapter did some Literature drops but that is about it.
I mosty did phone-banking, wrote postcards and Vote Forward letters, plus worked on the Voter Protection hotline
it was a problem. I was volunteering for then state rep candidate Sydney Batch -- we were making phone calls and she was encouraging us. As we were phone banking, she said there were Rs on her street going door to door. And she lost. She was later appointed to a state senate seat, so she's still in the NCGA, but it was a good - and icky - lesson: door to door canvassing works.
I hope he's a gift to Josh Stein, Rachel Hunt, Mo Green, Jeff Jackson --
because he's absolutely terrifying.
Great ad. Especially the very last bit!
I love his sense of humor!
I love the new Biden general election ad! I hope to see Kamala Harris featured in the future - she’s a woman of substance - with a great smile not sitting in a kitchen! Ha! What a gift that speech was from the R’s…….Biden’s speech was a powerful home run! Addressing the age issue is brilliant. Let’s get to 55!
Poor Katie Britt, bless her heart, will never live that horrible response video down. She was pathetic. So if age is supposedly a disqualifying factor and younger is better, how about this list:
Kevin McCarthy-59, MAGA Mike Johnson-52, Matt Gaetz-41, Marjorie Taylor Greene-49, Lauren Boebert-37, Josh Hawley-44, Ted Cruz-53, Katie Britt-42, etc, etc. All these Republican politicians are much younger than Joe Biden. They have 0 accomplishments except gaining attention for themselves, which indicates that they don't care about ordinary Americans or vulnerable Americans. Let's define vulnerable Americans as pretty much everyone else besides white Republicans. I'll take a decent, substantive person like Joe Biden any day.
Someone suggested that Simon should have Rachel Bitecofer on as a guest to one of our meetings – good idea!
In the meantime, she was on this week’s episode of PoliticsGirl - check it out!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMunuuscl9Q
I second your proposal! I also suggested Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Cheryl, Markers For Democracy, Downtown Nasty Women Social Group & Team Min will be hosting Rachel Bitecofer on Monday, March 25th at 10:30 am. Check our newsletter and we will have a Mobilize link soon.
Great!
Yes great suggestion! She is where I found out about Simon and Tom Bonier.
I LOVED that episode.
Continuing my daily articles to the NYTimes, here a link to a tiresome article by Shane Goldmache, one of th consistent Biden naysayers this cycle.
"The Biden-Trump Rerun: A Nation Craving Change Gets More of the Same The Biden-Trump Rerun: A Nation Craving Change Gets More of the Same" https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/us/politics/trump-biden-presidential-campaign-2024.html?smid=nytcore-android-share __________________________________________________________________________
Here's my letter to the Times today to the journalis who wrote it. ________________________________ Thanks for your article explaining that "Americans" want "change" not the same old guys running again. I don't know who or how many Americans you've spoken to, but there are millions of Americans (81 million in 2020) thrilled that Joe Biden is running again. So is the Democratic party leadership. Did you guys watch SOTU and miss that point? His first term record has been great. I am so thankful he's giving 4 more years of service to America this late in his life, and so are millions more os my fellow Democrates. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Yours Merrill Weingrod 4014808003 Let's keep up the pressure. You can write to the journalist at this address shane.goldmacher@nytimes.com
Thank you! 🙏
Perhaps what (at least some of) the nation is craving is A CHANGE FROM (of?) MSM/NYT.
I love the ad! It's smart, funny, and encouraging and makes me proud to be a Democrat. And as far as the polls go, we need to be relentless in our commitment to getting us across the finish line. The time to let up on the gas is after every ballot is counted and not a minute earlier! Happy Saturday, Hopium Family!
The time to let up on the gas is after Biden is again inaugurated – and not a minute earlier!
Yes! Good catch. Thank you!
It was uplifting to hear Biden speak so forcefully and to draw the lines between authoritarianism and democracy so clearly. I wanted to share a clip from Amanpour's show yesterday that features the progressive messaging researcher Anat Shenker Osorio commenting on Biden's speech. I think she is amazing and offers important guidance on how to message most effectively to hold onto democracy in November. Here's the clip (its about 11 mins): https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2024/03/08/amanpour-golodryga-shenker-osorio-biden-sotu.cnn
If it doesn't highlight you can google amanpour and anat shenker osorio and it will come up.
Christiane Amanpour is the person they should have put in charge of CNN! Let’s face it: Chris Licht and his rightward turn was an unmitigated disaster. I really do wish we could bring back the CNN that was before Ted Turner sold it.
Great ad. Now chop it up and get it up on insta and tictoc.
Remember the infamous polls that predicted a HRC win? Yeah. Those. Haven’t bothered with polls since.
2 notes on this comment: 1) polls can never predict anything, they can just tell you where things are today 2) the polls weren't wrong in 2016. The election was changed by the Comey intervention and took a clear win for us and made it a loss
That’s exactly right! In the aftermath of the election, Prof. Sam Wang did some very detailed analysis of polls that showed a significant movement away from Hillary precisely coinciding with Comey’s intervention.
NB. If I recall correctly, the FBI counterintelligence guy, who was recently charged with working for the Russians, was a key person in that NYC FBI team that convinced Comey to announce his investigation!
Quite a coincidence... Yet another that receives far too little media attention.
The idea that "polls can never predict anything, they can just tell you where things are today" is a savage truth, a brutal wake-up call to the high priests and acolytes of the polling sanctum. To believe in the almighty power of polls is to dance wildly on the edge of a razor, blindfolded and drunk on false certainty. Polls, my friends, are the glittering Las Vegas of political forecasting—a shimmering mirage of precision in the desert of our electoral chaos.
Believing in these snapshots, these brief glimpses into the collective psyche, is akin to trusting a one-eyed psychic with a bad gambling habit. The world spins, people change their minds, and the universe laughs at our attempts to pin down the future with the flimsy darts of today's opinions. Polls are the junk food of political analysis; they offer the instant gratification of feeling informed without any of the substance of true understanding.
And let's not kid ourselves about the so-called science behind these polls. They're cobbled together with assumptions as sturdy as a house of cards in a hurricane. Who decides who's a "likely voter"? A wizard in a backroom, throwing darts at a list of names? The methodology is a dark art, cloaked in statistical jargon, designed to make alchemists green with envy.
The bias, oh, the bias! It seeps into every question, every selection of whom to call, turning these polls into little more than echo chambers, reverberating with the prejudices of their creators. In our brave new world of information overload, finding a truly representative sample is like hunting for a unicorn in a New York City alley—it's a fantasy, a pipe dream.
And yet, the spectacle continues. The media, those ravenous beasts, pounce on every new poll with the frenzy of sharks in a feeding frenzy, distilling complex data into sensational headlines that warp the public's perception. We gobble it up, eager for any scrap that confirms our world view, blissfully unaware that we're being led by the nose.
In the grand scheme, relying on polls to predict the future is like trying to navigate the Colorado River on a raft made of newspaper clippings. They might tell you where you are, but good luck guessing where you're going. The only certainty in this mad dance is change, and the wise will remember that today's gospel is tomorrow's fish wrapper. So, let's raise our glasses to the folly of forecasting and ride the wave of uncertainty with a grin on our faces and a stiff drink in our hands. After all, isn't the unpredictability part of the fun?
I just have to complement you on how well written this is!! Wow!
Thank you. 🙏
As always Gloria wonderfully said!! Thank you. I just adore your writing. ❤️
Glad you said that, Simon. I will never forget that cowardly man and what he said about Hilary when the camera was in his face. It still stuns me.
As a monthly donor to the Biden/Harris campaign since the end of last year, it's great to see early ads in battle states. Makes me feel my money is well spent with ads well done.
It's going to be about grassroot organizations again as we the people keep the WH in the hands of a true leader. And battle for Congress so Joe can finish the job he intends to do when re-elected.
If Biden didn't run in 2020, we would all be living in a fascist country. Thankfully, he came out of retirement when the stakes were high back then. And now, the stakes are even higher. The best President of my lifetime hands down! Onward!
I love it looks like Biden is getting to be Biden more 😊 This is what voters need to see and hear.
So proud to share with my circle how Joe Biden has been a good president. 😎🇺🇸
Fantastic Biden Ad.
Harry Enten of CNN said it will be hard for Biden to beat Trump. What a negative statement and it probably got a lot of clicks.
I'd like someone's opinion of Harry Enten, formerly of FiveThirtyEight?
Actually I said something about him earlier in this thread - in response to someone else mentioning that piece & Simon in turn pointed out that many data analysts either don't or "won't" make things besides poll data. Simon and others are helping me to think about less & less about analysts - at least to stop taking what they say as gospel. I think Harry is probably incentivized to get clicks like most journalists/contributors. Just remember - this is up to ALL OF US - not just Harry, or Nate (Cohn or Silver) or another analyst out there :)