Biden turned new ground, breaking from old formulas. Stepping aside and helping to implant Kamala Harris quickly bore fruit. Republican forecasters are predicting the Harris campaign enthusiasm will fade, like a blip. They wish. They have overlooked the vastness of a movement. We have the coalescing of: indignant women in numbers too big to ignore; aggrieved minorities, and inspired new voters joining the clearheaded, cult-proof faithful. There is a focus on Harris: new energy surrounding her, interest in her, and investment in her. This is all unprecedented — and no one knows what is next. Certainly not stunned Republicans.
I have seen groundswells like this before. When the pack smells the prey’s blood, a whole new dynamic emerges. Stoked by a pent-up hunger, a feeding frenzy ensues. That is the surge of this movement and it is the only thing to which I can liken this surge. This is not just a blip. And fuel for the movement is stockpiled: the announcement of the VP pick; the weeklong national convention; the debate; and the snowballing work product from the tens of thousands of new volunteers added by the movement.
To wit: the Harris campaign announced that it will launch 2,600 more volunteers into its Florida ground game. Abortion rights are on the ballot there this fall, adding voters for the Democratic ticket. Fearless, she has taken direct action to put Florida in play. Yes! Florida can turn blue. Flipping 300,000 that voted for Trump in 2020 will do it, all while Trump is announcing yesterday to Christians in the state that, “This is the last time you will have to vote.”
Others aggrieved and turned off by Trump’s madness will catch this wave and join this movement. I see a juggernaut, not a blip. Katie, bar the door, but we must make hay right now. Donate for September and October.
I remember when Obama ran, the media said the same thing - that the excitement wouldn't last. The media is surprised that Harris has this level of excitement because they had nothing to do with it. THEY normalized Trump. This excitement is organic and palpable. Will it last? We will see but even if it levels out a bit, she is still in a great position to beat Trump - we have real excitement and Trump is a a racist, a liar, and so old news.
Oh, no. How will the corporate media control us now? What can they say so as not to feel joy, not to trust ourselves, not to take our futures into our own hands? Hey, here's an idea: have a bunch of has-been strategists scold us. Also, make up a bunch of numbers that say we are wrong. Got it.
Agree 1000%, this “honeymoon” happened because of the grassroots response, not the media response. In fact the media has been trying to kill it (witness the pro open convention push by the NYT and elsewhere). It is just getting started (it is no where near finished). It’s super cool. As many have said, most voters no longer depend on the mainstream news for political news. They get it from friends and family online. The old guard of the media - are increasingly irrelevant (and we are seeing that). We can keep on building as a result and really go and kick MAGA’s and its supporters (including some in the media) collective asses.
About NYT polling….I read about this inJay Kuo’s post today and had to look it up.As he said..this would be totally hilarious even if it wasn’t completely true and NYT didn’t have to update to admit this happened.
NY Times Makes Incredible Retraction Involving Kamala Harris Polling — And A Bowl Of Chili With A Severed Finger In It?
Simon, I’ve watched all these interviews and they’re fantastic. I’ve contributed to several of these candidates and plan to give to more of them. If at some point you feel it would be advantageous to expand this list, I encourage you to take a gander at Col. Vindman’s race in VA-7, Abigail Spanberger’s seat - another solid candidate in a critical purple district.
I’m not seeing polls, but conservative website The Hill predicts that Vindman has an 81% chance of defeating Derrick Anderson. I’d say that’s great news!
Wow! I remember in 2022 we were a little concerned Spanberger would carry it again as the district was redrawn pretty severely. But she won, and by 2 or 3 points over her last win. Eugene Vindman out raised his opponent almost 7 fold! There are so many exmilitary living there that, as former CIA, Spanberger was a great fit, and so is Vindman. Besides, Dems are now the strong foreign policy and law and order party. Honestly, we’re simply the only competent party standing as well as the only party of democracy.
Vindman! What a patriot. So glad he's running. I'd love an interview with him, but I know Simon has his 12-candidate plan. I wonder if we could nudge him in.
Given the number of Eastern European Americans in swing states I’d love to see his brother Alexander Vindman (who was attacked by trump over protecting Ukraine ) visit the swing states and remind voters what happened
Suozzi won by 8 points in the special so that portends well for us but of course nothing is guaranteed. Simon is currently focused on growth and expansion by flipping seats, but if your passion lies with defending NY-3 by all means continue to help their campaign. Suozzi is great and of course we want him back in congress.
Suozzi's district was redrawn in his favor since February. The next door race in NY CD-04 which Laura Gillen, interviewed by Simon above, is running for is going to be much closer. If she wins, no way Suozzi loses.
I've been replicating Hopium on a number of other venues. E.G. If you don't mind, I sent your interview with Fred Wellman to numerous veterans groups. Several veterans are house candidates and can flip Republican districts. I'm in Florida, where we have an upcoming primary, Here in Baghdad By the Sea we have vets running, including candidates in USFL 27 and 28. Phil Ehr will be at the convention, and has no opposition in our Democratic Primary. Maybe you and Fred can make contact with him. https://ehrforcongress.us/
I am not on social media -- barred -- but I think that the Hopium Substack can go viral given the recent developments.
Thank you for explaining the polling, Simon. Does the drop on Trump's end mean perhaps that some who were going to vote for him are now back to undecided?
I have been thinking about how the Trump campaign seems to have been caught completely off guard by the change of Democratic nominee. It was never guaranteed to happen, but it can hardly be classified as a shock. So what does that say about what his administration would be like? I mean, I know we already lived through one, and saw how unprepared they were for the pandemic, but shouldn't this give supposedly sober-minded Republicans pause? If you can't even make plans for something as obviously likely to happen as this, how would you handle a 9/11 type emergency?
The fact that Trump has so many people voting for him is sickening and disheartening. His handling of the pandemic alone is disqualifying. You would think even racists would want someone capable in the WH to handle pandemics. BUT there are more of us than them. If we turnout, I have no doubt we will win - even with all the voter suppression. Let's go! Vote Blue! 💙
the problem is a lot of his base still believe the pandemic was fake, or at the very least a vastly inflated threat. There were (and probably still are) cases of people who were in the ER literally dying of covid, but still insisting that it was just the flu and they were going to be fine, because Trump told them covid was just a liberal lie.
I’m not overly surprised, 2020 showed us that a disturbingly large portion of this country’s population basically inhabit an alternate universe, and I honestly don’t know what, if anything, can actually reach them at this point. Thankfully, they’re still a minority of the population.
Great stuff Simon. Just a brief comment on Trump's talk about "never having to vote again" if he wins. Some of taken that as a dark omen of what he has cooked up, and maybe it is, but it's also weak-man authoritarian bullshit right out of the fascist playbook. We should be alarmed that this guy is still considered a legitimate candidate and not completely disqualified but don't be afraid of him. Strong leaders and winners don't have to talk about not voting or what happens when they lose (re his previous "bloodbath" comments). He's a fucking loser and we should act like it. The Harris campaign is striking the correct tone: highlighting the danger he represents while also mocking the person. Work hard and make Trump pay at the polls this November.
yeah it’s an admission he probably can’t win legitimately, just like his desperate cooking of conspiracy theories around rigged voting were late in the election in 2020.
This is FALSE! Melania is keeping her distance; as much as she can, she is staying several states away. Judging by his behavior, Trump is a very angry Incel. In other words: a very pathetic non-fucking loser!
This is good news. I suppose as a non-Floridian I might ask: "Which villages" But I guess that might be tantamount to asking "Show me the island on the map" when we’re talking about Rhode Island. (Not many Americans know of Aquidneck Island.)
Democrats need an all-comprehensive plan and process for checking all Blue-leaning voters’ registration status. We know DeSantis & Co have been up to shenanigans. And we need to remember that it was Jeb Bush’s voter purges, and not just SCOTUS, that really stole the election from Al Gore in 2000. Likewise it was then-Secretary-of-State Brian Kemp’s massive purges that stole Georgia’s gubernatorial election in 2018.
(The idiot just can’t help himself. Here’s more from The Guardian’s top news article:)
“Christians, get out and vote! Just this time – you won’t have to do it any more,” the Republican former president said on Friday night at a rally hosted in West Palm Beach, Florida, by the far-right advocacy group Turning Point Action.
“You know what? It’ll be fixed! It’ll be fine. You won’t have to vote any more, my beautiful Christians.”
At that point, with a slight shake of his head and his right hand pressed against the left side of his chest, Trump said, “I’m not Christian.”
I’m still confused about our reliance on poll numbers. I thought here, we focused on other markers like on-the-ground factors, campaign infrastructure, state races, etc, that tell more about where we are at? I’m just asking I’m sure I don’t understand the inside workings..thx
As I understand it, polling is useful for telling us where things stand RIGHT NOW, but they’re not at all predictive of what will happen until we are very close to the election. So polling is just one piece of data, and this far out, the fundamentals are more predictive than polling for what will happen. Once we’re in mid/late October, the polling will be more predictive. Right now, it’s just a way of gauging how the race is changing, it can’t tell us what is likely to happen.
More data is better than less data. I have never said to ignore polling - other people say that, I have said that - but it is only one piece of the puzzle. And right now the polling data is telling us an awful lot about this changing election.
Cool thx I know you never said polling wasn't part of equation.. Thx for the clarity..for me it's hard to have any faith in any polling.. Recent history doesn't bode well for polling confidence
You write, "In this one poll Vice President Harris gained 7 points in just days." That's true on net, but here's another read that might be more hopeful: Trump LOST 7 points in just days. That could be due to a combination of his pathetic convention speech followed by his unremitting juvenile nastiness about Biden and Harris that reminds everyone of why they don't want him to be President again. I am hoping that Harris has mostly gained intensity and that her real uptick will occur in the next month.
It’s possible some of this is Trump losing ground, but the timing of the shift makes it look more like Harris specifically gained. You can see on several polls that the number of undecided voters and those planning on not voting dropped significantly within a couple days of Biden dropping out, and all over the place I’m seeing people (especially young people) saying that they weren’t planning on voting, but now will be for Harris.
At this late point it may still be possible for Trump to bleed significant numbers of supporters, but I would be a little surprised if many who were fully supportive of him up until this point were going to suddenly turn on him just because of stuff like his convention speech. Sure, his speech was insane, but it was also largely more of the same for anyone who has been following him the entire election, leading me to believe that most Trumpers are unlikely to be especially affected by it.
At this point I think the places we’ll see key movement will be with undecided and non-voters, as I don’t think Trump’s base is going to fluctuate much in size from hereon out; he’s already made himself unappealing to everyone except diehard MAGA radicals, and it’s unlikely those people will be leaving him in significant numbers now if they haven’t already (it *might* be possible he’ll still shed a bit of support if he’s sentenced to house arrest or something this fall, as maybe some MAGA diehards will still stop short of wanting a president who would be confined to the White House maybe his entire term, but even *then* I’m not so sure, a lot of his base is just so delusional they might ignore even that). I think Trump is pretty much stuck in terms of his numbers, he’s both about as high and about as low as he’ll get this election.
Hi Simon. Quick question for you. If Trump swaps out JD Vance for Niki Haley, do you think that has the potential to put the Dems on their heels? Being that Haley's PAC already gave their delegates to Harris, I don't anticipate those voters would come back her way. Nonetheless, she is a sly politician on occasion and untrustworthy which could give many Dems pause. Do you think Harris and others in the circle are prepared and strategizing in anticipation of such a maneuver on Trump' team' part? It's been exceptionally effective and exciting to see how Biden's calculus and that of the party's as well as, the grassroots organic support has kept Trump and team on their heels. However, it's also crucial we stay on offense the whole way through. Trump is as unpredictable as he is predictable and I put nothing past those around him like Kevin Roberts --- to throw as much ketchup at the walls as possible until God forbid something sticks.
I think it will be Stefanik, not Haley. Haley would be a smarter move, but I believe he can’t bring himself to do so. Also, Haley is anti putin. Trump is not.
I think the chances of Haley becoming Trump’s running mate at this point are similar to the chances of the US’s hog population all spontaneously sprouting wings. The Trump campaign has very much committed to making enemies of Haley and her supporters at every turn, they may understand they were idiotic to do so, but there’s not much they can do to take back what’s already been done. If they *had* a sudden change of heart, it’s hard for me to imagine Haley agreeing to do so, there’s just too much bad blood there.
I also question what percentage of Haley voters would willingly go along with it. It’s not like her as running mate would magically make Trump, with his over 30 felonies, open support for Russia, open support for fascist insurrection in the US, and clear and ever growing contempt for women and minorities, into a suddenly palatable candidate. I don’t think most Haley voters are as stupid as his base is. Even if it somehow were likely to happen (it’s not), I suspect it would mostly be too little too late.
Honestly, given how they tend to do things, and given how bad they have been about course correcting on some of Trump’s fundamental flaws as a candidate, I wouldn’t be surprised if his campaign just never actually handles the issue, instead continuing to believe that people are going to just magically turn on Harris if Trump calls her a “radical leftist” enough times.
That's funny. I could see Stefanik stepping in but I think both Harris and whether it be Kelly or Shapiro --- they'll all be able to take her on. I actually have a feeling Vance may stay all the way through. Some think Trump himself will somehow get taken off from the top of the ticket. Or, he may stay but fade from the campaign trail as the election gets closer. I think it would be naïve of us to think that Harris, Biden, and all major players in the DNC plus, Lincoln Project and others aren't fully aware of how Kevin Roberts and others are playing fiddler behind closed doors trying to use Trump as a puppet. One, I'm praying all counter intelligence both foreign and domestic can prevent any of their strategies from being effective when all set and done. Two, hoping Trump remains rather inconsolable and incorrigible -- cutting at the knees each new turn the puppeteers play due to his own arrogant need for attention and control.
I’ll admit I’m fully sure of all the legal technicalities involved, as I’ve seen conflicting stuff pertaining to this topic, but I think once a given party has voted on their nominee, it’s not something they can readily take back, even if they wanted to, so I really don’t think Trump being replaced on the ticket at this point is even an option legally.
Biden turned new ground, breaking from old formulas. Stepping aside and helping to implant Kamala Harris quickly bore fruit. Republican forecasters are predicting the Harris campaign enthusiasm will fade, like a blip. They wish. They have overlooked the vastness of a movement. We have the coalescing of: indignant women in numbers too big to ignore; aggrieved minorities, and inspired new voters joining the clearheaded, cult-proof faithful. There is a focus on Harris: new energy surrounding her, interest in her, and investment in her. This is all unprecedented — and no one knows what is next. Certainly not stunned Republicans.
I have seen groundswells like this before. When the pack smells the prey’s blood, a whole new dynamic emerges. Stoked by a pent-up hunger, a feeding frenzy ensues. That is the surge of this movement and it is the only thing to which I can liken this surge. This is not just a blip. And fuel for the movement is stockpiled: the announcement of the VP pick; the weeklong national convention; the debate; and the snowballing work product from the tens of thousands of new volunteers added by the movement.
To wit: the Harris campaign announced that it will launch 2,600 more volunteers into its Florida ground game. Abortion rights are on the ballot there this fall, adding voters for the Democratic ticket. Fearless, she has taken direct action to put Florida in play. Yes! Florida can turn blue. Flipping 300,000 that voted for Trump in 2020 will do it, all while Trump is announcing yesterday to Christians in the state that, “This is the last time you will have to vote.”
Others aggrieved and turned off by Trump’s madness will catch this wave and join this movement. I see a juggernaut, not a blip. Katie, bar the door, but we must make hay right now. Donate for September and October.
My horse agrees - make hay! MALA
It was what my spouse used to say sometimes when all 4 of the kids were out of the house!
I remember when Obama ran, the media said the same thing - that the excitement wouldn't last. The media is surprised that Harris has this level of excitement because they had nothing to do with it. THEY normalized Trump. This excitement is organic and palpable. Will it last? We will see but even if it levels out a bit, she is still in a great position to beat Trump - we have real excitement and Trump is a a racist, a liar, and so old news.
And the sad/laughable thing is, the only one of these identifiers that DT would hate is “so old news”.
Oh, no. How will the corporate media control us now? What can they say so as not to feel joy, not to trust ourselves, not to take our futures into our own hands? Hey, here's an idea: have a bunch of has-been strategists scold us. Also, make up a bunch of numbers that say we are wrong. Got it.
Laura Gillen working with Mother Teresa then becoming an attorney? Didn’t have that on my candidate bingo card. You go girl!!! ❤️
Wow! I haven't listen to the interview yet. Just listened to Simon's interview with Will Rollins - great candidate!
Agree 1000%, this “honeymoon” happened because of the grassroots response, not the media response. In fact the media has been trying to kill it (witness the pro open convention push by the NYT and elsewhere). It is just getting started (it is no where near finished). It’s super cool. As many have said, most voters no longer depend on the mainstream news for political news. They get it from friends and family online. The old guard of the media - are increasingly irrelevant (and we are seeing that). We can keep on building as a result and really go and kick MAGA’s and its supporters (including some in the media) collective asses.
Yup!
About NYT polling….I read about this inJay Kuo’s post today and had to look it up.As he said..this would be totally hilarious even if it wasn’t completely true and NYT didn’t have to update to admit this happened.
NY Times Makes Incredible Retraction Involving Kamala Harris Polling — And A Bowl Of Chili With A Severed Finger In It?
https://www.mediaite.com/media/new-york-times-retracts-quote-from-woman-who-planted-a-severed-finger-in-her-serving-of-wendys-chili/
So glad I bailed on NYT. Back to GOTV!!
Thanks for the link. Surprised they retracted it but glad they did.
A lot of GOTV focus with Amendment 4(reproductive freedom) in Florida ! 🌊🌊🌊
Ordered my Make America Laugh Again/Harris t-shirt but will refrain from using the acronym MALA = bad in Spanish.
👕🛒
But Ka-MALA?? She negates the "bad" - if that's not a double negative.
Or LALA...Let America Laugh Again!
LALA Land? After all, Harris is a Californian.....
Simon, I’ve watched all these interviews and they’re fantastic. I’ve contributed to several of these candidates and plan to give to more of them. If at some point you feel it would be advantageous to expand this list, I encourage you to take a gander at Col. Vindman’s race in VA-7, Abigail Spanberger’s seat - another solid candidate in a critical purple district.
I’m not seeing polls, but conservative website The Hill predicts that Vindman has an 81% chance of defeating Derrick Anderson. I’d say that’s great news!
https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/virginia-7/
Wow! I remember in 2022 we were a little concerned Spanberger would carry it again as the district was redrawn pretty severely. But she won, and by 2 or 3 points over her last win. Eugene Vindman out raised his opponent almost 7 fold! There are so many exmilitary living there that, as former CIA, Spanberger was a great fit, and so is Vindman. Besides, Dems are now the strong foreign policy and law and order party. Honestly, we’re simply the only competent party standing as well as the only party of democracy.
That's terrific. I was wondering what his chances were in this election.
Vindman! What a patriot. So glad he's running. I'd love an interview with him, but I know Simon has his 12-candidate plan. I wonder if we could nudge him in.
That's Alexander Vindman's brother, right?
Given the number of Eastern European Americans in swing states I’d love to see his brother Alexander Vindman (who was attacked by trump over protecting Ukraine ) visit the swing states and remind voters what happened
Aren't they twins?
I wrote many postcards for Tom Suozzi earlier this year. Is his seat safe?
Suozzi won by 8 points in the special so that portends well for us but of course nothing is guaranteed. Simon is currently focused on growth and expansion by flipping seats, but if your passion lies with defending NY-3 by all means continue to help their campaign. Suozzi is great and of course we want him back in congress.
Suozzi's district was redrawn in his favor since February. The next door race in NY CD-04 which Laura Gillen, interviewed by Simon above, is running for is going to be much closer. If she wins, no way Suozzi loses.
Just saw the interview with Laura. She is fantastic.
I've been replicating Hopium on a number of other venues. E.G. If you don't mind, I sent your interview with Fred Wellman to numerous veterans groups. Several veterans are house candidates and can flip Republican districts. I'm in Florida, where we have an upcoming primary, Here in Baghdad By the Sea we have vets running, including candidates in USFL 27 and 28. Phil Ehr will be at the convention, and has no opposition in our Democratic Primary. Maybe you and Fred can make contact with him. https://ehrforcongress.us/
I am not on social media -- barred -- but I think that the Hopium Substack can go viral given the recent developments.
Here's my Substack: Pet lovers unite. https://danielsolomon.substack.com/p/pet-owners-unite
Thank you for explaining the polling, Simon. Does the drop on Trump's end mean perhaps that some who were going to vote for him are now back to undecided?
I have been thinking about how the Trump campaign seems to have been caught completely off guard by the change of Democratic nominee. It was never guaranteed to happen, but it can hardly be classified as a shock. So what does that say about what his administration would be like? I mean, I know we already lived through one, and saw how unprepared they were for the pandemic, but shouldn't this give supposedly sober-minded Republicans pause? If you can't even make plans for something as obviously likely to happen as this, how would you handle a 9/11 type emergency?
The fact that Trump has so many people voting for him is sickening and disheartening. His handling of the pandemic alone is disqualifying. You would think even racists would want someone capable in the WH to handle pandemics. BUT there are more of us than them. If we turnout, I have no doubt we will win - even with all the voter suppression. Let's go! Vote Blue! 💙
the problem is a lot of his base still believe the pandemic was fake, or at the very least a vastly inflated threat. There were (and probably still are) cases of people who were in the ER literally dying of covid, but still insisting that it was just the flu and they were going to be fine, because Trump told them covid was just a liberal lie.
I’m not overly surprised, 2020 showed us that a disturbingly large portion of this country’s population basically inhabit an alternate universe, and I honestly don’t know what, if anything, can actually reach them at this point. Thankfully, they’re still a minority of the population.
Great stuff Simon. Just a brief comment on Trump's talk about "never having to vote again" if he wins. Some of taken that as a dark omen of what he has cooked up, and maybe it is, but it's also weak-man authoritarian bullshit right out of the fascist playbook. We should be alarmed that this guy is still considered a legitimate candidate and not completely disqualified but don't be afraid of him. Strong leaders and winners don't have to talk about not voting or what happens when they lose (re his previous "bloodbath" comments). He's a fucking loser and we should act like it. The Harris campaign is striking the correct tone: highlighting the danger he represents while also mocking the person. Work hard and make Trump pay at the polls this November.
yeah it’s an admission he probably can’t win legitimately, just like his desperate cooking of conspiracy theories around rigged voting were late in the election in 2020.
"He's a fucking loser and we should act like it."
This is FALSE! Melania is keeping her distance; as much as she can, she is staying several states away. Judging by his behavior, Trump is a very angry Incel. In other words: a very pathetic non-fucking loser!
"In the days since Vice President Kamala Harris launched her presidential bid, more than 170,000 volunteers have joined her cause, her campaign says."
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/26/harris-campaign-volunteers-swing-states
170,000 new volunteers in a matter of days – that’s effing incredible!
https://www.facebook.com/joanne.stiger/videos/704418741827498/?idorvanity=1499890237387130
This is incredible. The Villages has flipped to Harris. We must take the offense in Florida. This state can flip to blue. Don’t forget Miami area!
This is good news. I suppose as a non-Floridian I might ask: "Which villages" But I guess that might be tantamount to asking "Show me the island on the map" when we’re talking about Rhode Island. (Not many Americans know of Aquidneck Island.)
Democrats need an all-comprehensive plan and process for checking all Blue-leaning voters’ registration status. We know DeSantis & Co have been up to shenanigans. And we need to remember that it was Jeb Bush’s voter purges, and not just SCOTUS, that really stole the election from Al Gore in 2000. Likewise it was then-Secretary-of-State Brian Kemp’s massive purges that stole Georgia’s gubernatorial election in 2018.
Trump continues to generate devastatingly negative headlines. Top headline on The Guardian today:
"Trump tells supporters they won’t have to vote in the future: ‘It’ll be fixed!’
"Former president implores Christian supports to vote ‘just this time’, then says he’s not Christian"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/27/trump-speech-no-need-to-vote-future
(The idiot just can’t help himself. Here’s more from The Guardian’s top news article:)
“Christians, get out and vote! Just this time – you won’t have to do it any more,” the Republican former president said on Friday night at a rally hosted in West Palm Beach, Florida, by the far-right advocacy group Turning Point Action.
“You know what? It’ll be fixed! It’ll be fine. You won’t have to vote any more, my beautiful Christians.”
At that point, with a slight shake of his head and his right hand pressed against the left side of his chest, Trump said, “I’m not Christian.”
Will be interesting to see the RW media's take on his "I'm not Christian" confession.
My prediction? Radio silence.
Yep, just like in 2018 when Trump told Pence in a WH meeting to “...take the guns first, go through due process second...”.
I’m still confused about our reliance on poll numbers. I thought here, we focused on other markers like on-the-ground factors, campaign infrastructure, state races, etc, that tell more about where we are at? I’m just asking I’m sure I don’t understand the inside workings..thx
As I understand it, polling is useful for telling us where things stand RIGHT NOW, but they’re not at all predictive of what will happen until we are very close to the election. So polling is just one piece of data, and this far out, the fundamentals are more predictive than polling for what will happen. Once we’re in mid/late October, the polling will be more predictive. Right now, it’s just a way of gauging how the race is changing, it can’t tell us what is likely to happen.
Thx well stated..
Well said. Polling is useful to guide action. Polling can help you decide where and in which demographics it’s best to invest time and resources.
And by mid/late October, we'll also have data about early voting patterns.
More data is better than less data. I have never said to ignore polling - other people say that, I have said that - but it is only one piece of the puzzle. And right now the polling data is telling us an awful lot about this changing election.
Cool thx I know you never said polling wasn't part of equation.. Thx for the clarity..for me it's hard to have any faith in any polling.. Recent history doesn't bode well for polling confidence
pretty sure all those other factors you name also strongly favor the democrats right now.
Just saw that Field Team 6 has a voter registration campaign for NY-4. I know where my texts are going today!
My official statement on Jd Vance:
“I never thought I would say this in my life about anyone, but he is no Palin.”
—Steve Lungrin, 2024
JD Vance is no Dan Quayle and also probably can't spell
I can’t decide whether JD Vance is the Quayle of Sarah Palins, or the Palin of Dan Quayles.
I vote for the Palin of Dan Quayles - very well phrased
You write, "In this one poll Vice President Harris gained 7 points in just days." That's true on net, but here's another read that might be more hopeful: Trump LOST 7 points in just days. That could be due to a combination of his pathetic convention speech followed by his unremitting juvenile nastiness about Biden and Harris that reminds everyone of why they don't want him to be President again. I am hoping that Harris has mostly gained intensity and that her real uptick will occur in the next month.
It’s possible some of this is Trump losing ground, but the timing of the shift makes it look more like Harris specifically gained. You can see on several polls that the number of undecided voters and those planning on not voting dropped significantly within a couple days of Biden dropping out, and all over the place I’m seeing people (especially young people) saying that they weren’t planning on voting, but now will be for Harris.
At this late point it may still be possible for Trump to bleed significant numbers of supporters, but I would be a little surprised if many who were fully supportive of him up until this point were going to suddenly turn on him just because of stuff like his convention speech. Sure, his speech was insane, but it was also largely more of the same for anyone who has been following him the entire election, leading me to believe that most Trumpers are unlikely to be especially affected by it.
At this point I think the places we’ll see key movement will be with undecided and non-voters, as I don’t think Trump’s base is going to fluctuate much in size from hereon out; he’s already made himself unappealing to everyone except diehard MAGA radicals, and it’s unlikely those people will be leaving him in significant numbers now if they haven’t already (it *might* be possible he’ll still shed a bit of support if he’s sentenced to house arrest or something this fall, as maybe some MAGA diehards will still stop short of wanting a president who would be confined to the White House maybe his entire term, but even *then* I’m not so sure, a lot of his base is just so delusional they might ignore even that). I think Trump is pretty much stuck in terms of his numbers, he’s both about as high and about as low as he’ll get this election.
Yes, the way I read the numbers, Trump lost 7 points. Harris is at 46% both before and after. Trump went from 54% to 47%.
I just signed up for my first organizing call for Kamala Harris through The Democratic National Committee Tuesday evening! Although I planned to wait until after the delegates vote, I am on the move. Can you join me? Use this link to sign up: https://events.democrats.org/event/655276/?referring_vol=787787&rname=Deborah&share_context=event-detail-page-modal-chained-invite&share_medium=copy_link
I tried but it says page not found. Is there another link?
Please try again. I fixed it.
Hi Simon. Quick question for you. If Trump swaps out JD Vance for Niki Haley, do you think that has the potential to put the Dems on their heels? Being that Haley's PAC already gave their delegates to Harris, I don't anticipate those voters would come back her way. Nonetheless, she is a sly politician on occasion and untrustworthy which could give many Dems pause. Do you think Harris and others in the circle are prepared and strategizing in anticipation of such a maneuver on Trump' team' part? It's been exceptionally effective and exciting to see how Biden's calculus and that of the party's as well as, the grassroots organic support has kept Trump and team on their heels. However, it's also crucial we stay on offense the whole way through. Trump is as unpredictable as he is predictable and I put nothing past those around him like Kevin Roberts --- to throw as much ketchup at the walls as possible until God forbid something sticks.
I think it will be Stefanik, not Haley. Haley would be a smarter move, but I believe he can’t bring himself to do so. Also, Haley is anti putin. Trump is not.
Carlson wanted Vance
I think the chances of Haley becoming Trump’s running mate at this point are similar to the chances of the US’s hog population all spontaneously sprouting wings. The Trump campaign has very much committed to making enemies of Haley and her supporters at every turn, they may understand they were idiotic to do so, but there’s not much they can do to take back what’s already been done. If they *had* a sudden change of heart, it’s hard for me to imagine Haley agreeing to do so, there’s just too much bad blood there.
I also question what percentage of Haley voters would willingly go along with it. It’s not like her as running mate would magically make Trump, with his over 30 felonies, open support for Russia, open support for fascist insurrection in the US, and clear and ever growing contempt for women and minorities, into a suddenly palatable candidate. I don’t think most Haley voters are as stupid as his base is. Even if it somehow were likely to happen (it’s not), I suspect it would mostly be too little too late.
Honestly, given how they tend to do things, and given how bad they have been about course correcting on some of Trump’s fundamental flaws as a candidate, I wouldn’t be surprised if his campaign just never actually handles the issue, instead continuing to believe that people are going to just magically turn on Harris if Trump calls her a “radical leftist” enough times.
That's funny. I could see Stefanik stepping in but I think both Harris and whether it be Kelly or Shapiro --- they'll all be able to take her on. I actually have a feeling Vance may stay all the way through. Some think Trump himself will somehow get taken off from the top of the ticket. Or, he may stay but fade from the campaign trail as the election gets closer. I think it would be naïve of us to think that Harris, Biden, and all major players in the DNC plus, Lincoln Project and others aren't fully aware of how Kevin Roberts and others are playing fiddler behind closed doors trying to use Trump as a puppet. One, I'm praying all counter intelligence both foreign and domestic can prevent any of their strategies from being effective when all set and done. Two, hoping Trump remains rather inconsolable and incorrigible -- cutting at the knees each new turn the puppeteers play due to his own arrogant need for attention and control.
I’ll admit I’m fully sure of all the legal technicalities involved, as I’ve seen conflicting stuff pertaining to this topic, but I think once a given party has voted on their nominee, it’s not something they can readily take back, even if they wanted to, so I really don’t think Trump being replaced on the ticket at this point is even an option legally.
Or Vance for that matter. Trump can try replacing him but it would look horrible number one, and he totally disorganized too close to the election.
Just back from the Harris fundraiser in Pittsfield, MA, and it was AMAZING!
Fantastic! Good turnout?
Sold out!
Wow! How was it? Electric?
Yes, roaring crowd.