Excellent! I guess, at 5 minutes, this won't be shown on TV, so we should share through our social media networks -- or directly with family, friends, colleagues.
I write postcards for Northeast Arizona Native Democrats (https://neaznativedemocrats.org/) and he gets mentioned in a lot of the scripts along with the top of the ticket (now Biden/Walz) along with what the Democrats are doing for indigenous voters.
As a lifelong renter, I approve Kamala's wonderful ad about expanding access to housing and homeownership. Have been preaching on this subject for literally years. Someone is finally listening!
In lieu of a long prison sentence, I have been hoping that Donald would just disappear to Mar-a-Lago, go play with his tiny white balls and leave America alone.
Next best would be to have his properties seized to pay his many hundred-million-dollar fines. Perfect sites for lots of low-cost housing for our multi-ethnic homeless, including injured/damaged vets.
I’m frustrated at the insistence of pursuing the blue dot in Nebraska. There are Senate and House candidacies that will have much more of an impact on our lives and deserve our focus, money and support. The blue dot is an Election Night gotcha and is almost frat like in its childishness. It’s still Nebraska. $150,000 not going to GOTV efforts where it counts.
Nobody is stopping you from focusing your money and support on any other candidacy-- up or down the ballot-- that you choose, Ann. The world in which Harris/Walz win MI, WI, and PA, but no other swing states, leaving them with 269 votes, is an incredibly-plausible one! In such a world, that blue dot decides the election. To some folks (and I am one of them), that contingency is worth devoting our time and money toward addressing. But I promise you that none of us will begrudge you for making a different choice with *your* time and money. This is a free country, after all.
Yup, Tony Vargas. So focusing on the Blue dot is a big contingency plan for the electoral college AND a needed House seat. Plus as you say, a dark horse Senate seat.
I am not sure how it is a gotcha, it is an Electoral vote, and Tony Vargas is challenging Don Bacon in the same seat.
According to Simon the Hopium community is the largest outside investor in the states Democratic party. Also worth noting that the money probably also helps support the efforts in NE-01 which is a stretch but not out of the realm of possible for both Harris and the house candidate there. It seems like a low cost commitment with a high potential for return.
Ann, you may not agree with this strategy but seriously what is up with your language and sentiment here? And you are also wrong. As I write in explanation for the "checkmate" strategy is that we are targeting the 3 states I felt most likely to get us to 270 beyond the 269 of the blue wall of MI, PA, WI - AZ, NC, NE-2 - all of which are also high return on investment states. When we began this campaign we were not leading in any of the Sun Belt states and it was a legit possibility that the ONLY WAY TO 270 was through NE-2. So as others have said it may not be for you but please both your analysis and sentiment are way off base.
Also, for what it’s worth, Nebraska is a bit of a sleeper state. I live in Lincoln, which is the first district, and while it has been gerrymandered a bit, we’re not that far off from having two districts that could go blue in Nebraska. Might not happen this year, but we have a really good State chair helping to organize us in that direction. Because Nebraska doles out its electors via congressional district, that means we could very soon earn two electoral college votes out of Nebraska, as well as two members of the United States House of Representatives. What’s even more important is that, if we can drive the totals high enough in the Omaha and Lincoln area over time, we could possibly be able to win a statewide election again here in the coming years. If we did that in a presidential year, we would get four of Nebraska’s five electoral votes… And even more important than that, we would be functionally a competitive state for the governorship and the senate seats… A big problem in a place like Nebraska is that people don’t believe that it can flip, but if we get over that hurdle one district at a time,when Democrats in the state no longer think their vote is wasted, this becomes a swing state that was on nobody’s radar.
Writing Vote Forward letters for NE-02, with support from colleagues that have lived in Nebraska helping to draft personal message, specifically for NE-02. Also doing a Blue Wave postcard campaign for Nebraska where electoral votes are important.
We are not doing everything here: we are focused on certain objectives, especially Winning the House so President Harris can implement the Democratic agenda. Winning MI/PA/WI gets us to 269 and adding NE-2 gets us to 270 Electoral College votes and winning the election. Winning AZ, NC, NE-2 also wins the Presidency. Trump needs to win both Rust Belt & Sun Belt states to get to 270. It's math.
I read somewhere that when Barack Obama ran in 2008 his strategists made the Blue Dot a priority, so to me it makes sense to continue that successful winning strategy.
Disagree Ann. The blue dot is “extremely” important and could very well decide the EC. Other seats are very important but Trump is an insane person and dangerous for our country and world and must be defeated.
I can't wait for the subscriber discussion tonight. I love that Harris is going on offense is is not taking the bait either from Trump or the media. She's talking directly to the voters we need to win and not letting anyone filter her message. Trump is melting down and hoping election shenanigans will up-end the race for him if the vote is close, so our job is to make it not close. Let's get to work.
I totally agree. Instead of using words of fear, panic or anxiety, she dismisses Trump with non-emotional words like "unserious" and then pivots to her message. She's driving this train. She's not reacting to his insanity. It feels like we're in charge for the first time in 8 years.
She is a trained Prosecutor! It's how she earned a living. She is a professional, and that is what we need for an adversary that terrifies him and brings out even more inner weirdness. I feel like I should not be enjoying watching him squirm quite so much. :-}
Oh, do enjoy his diminishment at the hands of our next President!!!!!! I find that laughing at him helps me heal from all the daily trauma of having to hear his voice or read his rantings.
It feels like the only way to respond given his propensity for diminishing everyone around him. It is the only way he can feel superior. What a story (good horror movie).
The Harris-Walz campaign seems to recognize they have two opposition fronts, both equally dedicated to defeating her: the media and the Trump campaign. Fortunately CNN , NYT and the GOP are all so apoplectic at the prospect of a woman of color ascending to the presidency that they are getting sloppy in their frenzied attempts to damage her. Case in point: CNN's "undecided voters" panel. Pretending there is any semblance of neutrality in the corporate media is a mistake we can't afford to make. But it's equally a mistake to attribute a plan to Trump. Trying to overturn an election was only even a possibility when he held the White House. And he didn't even come close.
That’s a very good point, Brian!! Relieving to consider as well!! Grateful you shared your perspective.
You are absolutely correct, tRump will NOT be operating from the WH, levers of power clutched in his tiny, orange hands, minions scurrying to accomplish his insane bidding.
Oh, he will rant, rave and hopefully 😤blow a gasket. But all the vituperation in his tantrums on Election Night 2024 will be sound and fury; signifying
1. Please ask Riley to partner with FT 6. FT 6 is sending the following to NY state wide:
Hello [Their Name]! A strong economy should benefit all. But MAGA Republicans want to give money to the rich and end Social Security & Medicare. FIGHT THIS! Register and vote for Democrats who will protect Social Security benefits, raise taxes on billionaires & lower prescription drug prices! ft6.us/NY_reg
How will low information voters, Republican or otherwise, ever find out about these important endorsements? I have a relative who firmly believes Elon Musk believes in free speech. I hope social media users are sharing information and values to persuade potential voters what's at stake.
I personally plan to reach out to all the people I know in swing states through calls, and all the young people in my life. Every mind we change matters, if we're all doing this, we'll have a huge impact.
I do send or discuss F2F key talking points, economic facts, as well as one or two of the ever upbeat and enthusiastic Simon’s excellent graphs to a small circle of folk.
It has evolved organically that I advise informally well intentioned yet frustrated folk who are at a loss for WTF to say to the tRumper next door or across the table. Even though I am a retired public school administrator who can talk a kitty off a tuna boat,
(and textbank like a teenager🤭) learning new useful kernels is always welcome and valuable, IMO!
I find strategies, training opportunities and information from Indivisibles, invaluable! If anyone is not aware of them, they are terrific group, operating in communities nationwide. Ezra Levin is one of the founders. Indivisible can be found at: https://indivisible.org
Members have been energized to ignite successful grassroots efforts: such as ignored senior citizens finally embarrassing a repub congressman in Indiana enough so he was forced to meet with them, force cowardly reps in AZ, OH, NM not to ignore constituents but to see & hear their concerns, hold town meetings where none had ever been and won proven change since 2016. 🇺🇸☮️YES, WE KAM!!🗽🇺🇸
In most swing states, we see Democratic senate candidates polling very well, with comfortable leads, while the Harris–Trump polls show closer races. And yet, in our hyperpartisan era, there is relatively little ticket-splitting. Which raises the topic of which candidate(s) will influence whom...
Simon, my three related questions:
– Do you expect Democratic senate candidates to underperform?
– Do you think Kamala Harris is likely to overperform her polls (reverse coat tails)?
– Or are we likely to see as much ticket-splitting as indicated by the current divergent polls?
We do the work, but any thoughts about these voting dynamics would be most appreciated!
I know I'm not Simon, but some thoughts from an article on this in May:
"In 1976, according to ANES, more than one-quarter of voters split their ticket between president and Congress. The numbers were similar in 1988, another year without a significant third-party candidate confusing voting statistics.
In 1988, because of a quirk in Texas election laws originally crafted for Lyndon Johnson, Democratic Sen. Lloyd Bentsen simultaneously ran for reelection and vice president on a doomed ticket with Michael Dukakis. The power of ticket-splitting was demonstrated when Sen. Bentsen ran nearly 800,000 votes ahead of Vice President Bentsen.
The difference between presidential and congressional voting patterns in those days can be partially explained by how slowly Southern states made the transition to the Republican Party. As a result, moderate House Democrats like John Spratt in South Carolina held on to their seats until the 2010s.
By 2012, the last normal presidential election without Trump on the ballot, 89 percent of the electorate voted a straight ticket for president and Congress. As both parties became more ideologically uniform, there was less temptation for voters to pick one candidate from Column A and another from Column B. "
That’s my thinking as well. The key question is, converge at which level – closer to the Senate candidates’ poll numbers or to Kamala Harris’ poll numbers?
(As I understand it, Harris is still rising, the polls are still catching up. I’m optimistically waiting for her convention bounce!)
I think her numbers will trend up, but I also think it will be the final numbers being higher than her polling.
1.Trump underperformed significantly in the primaries this year when they were still competitive. He underperformed by 3% to 30% depending on the state. I have yet to see an explanation as to how/why polls now are more accurate.
2. The senate/gov (in NC) candidates are generally MAGA or MAGA+ candidates, which is why they are behind. At the end of the day, if you don't want MAGA, you don't want MAGA. I think Kari Lake and Robinson in NC will likely make those states blue this year, hence I think her numbers go up to match the other candidates. Plus, you have abortion amendments in NV and other places that also may help drive her numbers up.
I think this could be a lot like 1980 where the polling is close but the end result moves a lot in the last week.
I thought with some special elections (i.e., OH, perhaps), Democratic new registration of women was quite high. I believe this will be one for the history books.
Anderson Clayton was amazing on Rachael Maddow last night night . She’s extremely informative, energetic … an outstanding communicator for North Carolina. Thank you for introducing Hopium Community to Anderson early on. Her leadership is inspiring!
On Josh Riley... I attended Swing Blue Alliance's Frontline Update and Josh attended from his car with his wife and children on his way to canvas. I was moved enough to book an Air BNB (it's a 3 hour drive for us) for my husband and me.
I also contacted a friend who has get to take action and she and her husband are going to give it a day. One of the morals of this story is that if you have been asking others to get involved - ask again. Many are ready now.
💙 both ads. I see Team Harris managed to get in Trump’s small, accordion hands.😏
DeSantis was on the Space Coast last week bragging about all the companies coming to FL.
DeSantis is why the rent (and mortgage) is too damn high !
⬇️
Florida homes owned by corporate investors: 117,000 — and counting
Many Florida neighborhood are grappling with a broader trend disrupting the real estate industry, once controlled almost entirely by homeowners and mom-and-pop landlords. Corporate real estate investors own more than 117,000 single-family homes across Florida, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis of the state by the Tampa Bay Times. Experts say these investors capitalized on the state’s population growth and minimal renter protections. [Source: Tampa Bay Times]
It's my not very popular belief that along with the right to health care, every person in America has the right to be homed, ie, live in a home. Accordingly, I think that residential real estate should be off-limits for investment. I realize it'll never happen, but anything that can be done by the federal government to further 'homing' people is something I support.
After hearing of vote roll purging in Texas and other states, it's now an issue in NC and happening pretty late in the election cycle. And considering that Trump only beat Biden by ~75,000 votes in 2020, it could be meaningful.
I am canvassing in the area outside of Raleigh and both our scripts and the literature we hand out remind the people we meet to register and to check that their voter registration is active.
Thanks for your post. A dear friend, following encouragement to have voters check their registration here in NC, found that 3 of her contacts had been purged. One had even voted in the spring primary.
It's also important to note that purged voters can still cast provisional ballots. So on election day and during early voting we need to get everyone to the polls and make sure they bring an ID whether we got them to re-register or not. We can even call those people up and make sure they confirm their ballot has been "cured" after the election. I did it for the Georgia runoff. I think we need to do a better job communicating what these purges actually mean. Too often, our message sounds like, "They purged the voter rolls, so let's all go stick our heads in an oven." It discourages people and might even depress our turnout if people think the election is lost months in advance. Positive messages motivate people. Trying to convince people we live in Venezuela just makes them want to stay home. We have many more volunteers than they have. We have the resources to jump this hurdle.
FOX News refused to air a single minute of Adam Kinzinger or the other Republicans who took the stage at the DNC to endorse Kamala Harris for president.
SUGGESTION: The Harris-Walz Campaign can puncture the reality-denying Fox news bubble by cutting an ad that highlights the message of these brave, patriotic Republicans who are putting "country above party". That ad would invite Fox viewers to follow their good example!
Great ad by Monica Tranel running for the MT-01 seat. It is a little bit of a stretch but if Tester is going to win Montana Tranel will probably have to win her seat.
Thanks for sharing - it is verypowerful!
Excellent! I guess, at 5 minutes, this won't be shown on TV, so we should share through our social media networks -- or directly with family, friends, colleagues.
Excellent!
Super!
I write postcards for Northeast Arizona Native Democrats (https://neaznativedemocrats.org/) and he gets mentioned in a lot of the scripts along with the top of the ticket (now Biden/Walz) along with what the Democrats are doing for indigenous voters.
Indiginous voters played a very important role in the 2022 midterms: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/14/2141825/--Native-Voters-deliver-big-wins-in-Arizona-midterm-elections
As a lifelong renter, I approve Kamala's wonderful ad about expanding access to housing and homeownership. Have been preaching on this subject for literally years. Someone is finally listening!
I 100% agree. I make a good living but home ownership is impossible in my market. Who can afford a $7,000/month mortgage?
George Carlin had the solution to America’s homeless crisis. The solution is simple!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4w7H48tBS8
😂
George Carlin's one of our finest social/political stand-ups - he was hilarious and thankfully is still there for us on YouTube.
Perfect!
In lieu of a long prison sentence, I have been hoping that Donald would just disappear to Mar-a-Lago, go play with his tiny white balls and leave America alone.
Next best would be to have his properties seized to pay his many hundred-million-dollar fines. Perfect sites for lots of low-cost housing for our multi-ethnic homeless, including injured/damaged vets.
Yes!
Gosh, what a great thought to use for low income housing! It is so desperately needed for many!
I’m frustrated at the insistence of pursuing the blue dot in Nebraska. There are Senate and House candidacies that will have much more of an impact on our lives and deserve our focus, money and support. The blue dot is an Election Night gotcha and is almost frat like in its childishness. It’s still Nebraska. $150,000 not going to GOTV efforts where it counts.
Nobody is stopping you from focusing your money and support on any other candidacy-- up or down the ballot-- that you choose, Ann. The world in which Harris/Walz win MI, WI, and PA, but no other swing states, leaving them with 269 votes, is an incredibly-plausible one! In such a world, that blue dot decides the election. To some folks (and I am one of them), that contingency is worth devoting our time and money toward addressing. But I promise you that none of us will begrudge you for making a different choice with *your* time and money. This is a free country, after all.
Just read this quote on a 1440 newsletter and thought it definitely fits Here and Now:
"Now is the accepted time, not tomorrow, not some more convenient season. It is today that our best work can be done." - W.E.B. Du Bois
I believe that NE “blue dot” also represents an important House seat, and could help win a dark horse Senate seat (Independent Dan Osborn).
Yup, Tony Vargas. So focusing on the Blue dot is a big contingency plan for the electoral college AND a needed House seat. Plus as you say, a dark horse Senate seat.
I am not sure how it is a gotcha, it is an Electoral vote, and Tony Vargas is challenging Don Bacon in the same seat.
According to Simon the Hopium community is the largest outside investor in the states Democratic party. Also worth noting that the money probably also helps support the efforts in NE-01 which is a stretch but not out of the realm of possible for both Harris and the house candidate there. It seems like a low cost commitment with a high potential for return.
Ann, you may not agree with this strategy but seriously what is up with your language and sentiment here? And you are also wrong. As I write in explanation for the "checkmate" strategy is that we are targeting the 3 states I felt most likely to get us to 270 beyond the 269 of the blue wall of MI, PA, WI - AZ, NC, NE-2 - all of which are also high return on investment states. When we began this campaign we were not leading in any of the Sun Belt states and it was a legit possibility that the ONLY WAY TO 270 was through NE-2. So as others have said it may not be for you but please both your analysis and sentiment are way off base.
Also, for what it’s worth, Nebraska is a bit of a sleeper state. I live in Lincoln, which is the first district, and while it has been gerrymandered a bit, we’re not that far off from having two districts that could go blue in Nebraska. Might not happen this year, but we have a really good State chair helping to organize us in that direction. Because Nebraska doles out its electors via congressional district, that means we could very soon earn two electoral college votes out of Nebraska, as well as two members of the United States House of Representatives. What’s even more important is that, if we can drive the totals high enough in the Omaha and Lincoln area over time, we could possibly be able to win a statewide election again here in the coming years. If we did that in a presidential year, we would get four of Nebraska’s five electoral votes… And even more important than that, we would be functionally a competitive state for the governorship and the senate seats… A big problem in a place like Nebraska is that people don’t believe that it can flip, but if we get over that hurdle one district at a time,when Democrats in the state no longer think their vote is wasted, this becomes a swing state that was on nobody’s radar.
Writing Vote Forward letters for NE-02, with support from colleagues that have lived in Nebraska helping to draft personal message, specifically for NE-02. Also doing a Blue Wave postcard campaign for Nebraska where electoral votes are important.
We are not doing everything here: we are focused on certain objectives, especially Winning the House so President Harris can implement the Democratic agenda. Winning MI/PA/WI gets us to 269 and adding NE-2 gets us to 270 Electoral College votes and winning the election. Winning AZ, NC, NE-2 also wins the Presidency. Trump needs to win both Rust Belt & Sun Belt states to get to 270. It's math.
I read somewhere that when Barack Obama ran in 2008 his strategists made the Blue Dot a priority, so to me it makes sense to continue that successful winning strategy.
Disagree Ann. The blue dot is “extremely” important and could very well decide the EC. Other seats are very important but Trump is an insane person and dangerous for our country and world and must be defeated.
I can't wait for the subscriber discussion tonight. I love that Harris is going on offense is is not taking the bait either from Trump or the media. She's talking directly to the voters we need to win and not letting anyone filter her message. Trump is melting down and hoping election shenanigans will up-end the race for him if the vote is close, so our job is to make it not close. Let's get to work.
I totally agree. Instead of using words of fear, panic or anxiety, she dismisses Trump with non-emotional words like "unserious" and then pivots to her message. She's driving this train. She's not reacting to his insanity. It feels like we're in charge for the first time in 8 years.
She is a trained Prosecutor! It's how she earned a living. She is a professional, and that is what we need for an adversary that terrifies him and brings out even more inner weirdness. I feel like I should not be enjoying watching him squirm quite so much. :-}
Oh, do enjoy his diminishment at the hands of our next President!!!!!! I find that laughing at him helps me heal from all the daily trauma of having to hear his voice or read his rantings.
It feels like the only way to respond given his propensity for diminishing everyone around him. It is the only way he can feel superior. What a story (good horror movie).
The Harris-Walz campaign seems to recognize they have two opposition fronts, both equally dedicated to defeating her: the media and the Trump campaign. Fortunately CNN , NYT and the GOP are all so apoplectic at the prospect of a woman of color ascending to the presidency that they are getting sloppy in their frenzied attempts to damage her. Case in point: CNN's "undecided voters" panel. Pretending there is any semblance of neutrality in the corporate media is a mistake we can't afford to make. But it's equally a mistake to attribute a plan to Trump. Trying to overturn an election was only even a possibility when he held the White House. And he didn't even come close.
That’s a very good point, Brian!! Relieving to consider as well!! Grateful you shared your perspective.
You are absolutely correct, tRump will NOT be operating from the WH, levers of power clutched in his tiny, orange hands, minions scurrying to accomplish his insane bidding.
Oh, he will rant, rave and hopefully 😤blow a gasket. But all the vituperation in his tantrums on Election Night 2024 will be sound and fury; signifying
N😡THING! 🌊☮️🧜♀️
What an incredible candidate! Joe Biden is great as well, but I'm not unhappy with where we are.
1. Please ask Riley to partner with FT 6. FT 6 is sending the following to NY state wide:
Hello [Their Name]! A strong economy should benefit all. But MAGA Republicans want to give money to the rich and end Social Security & Medicare. FIGHT THIS! Register and vote for Democrats who will protect Social Security benefits, raise taxes on billionaires & lower prescription drug prices! ft6.us/NY_reg
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
2. The economy -- Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new high of 41,240.52.
3. Debate -- must have olfactometers displayed on the screen.
Olfactometer?? Did I read that right? A jab at the diaper-wearing candidate?
Or else that Trump statements don't "pass the sniff test" (aka 💩 meter).
How will low information voters, Republican or otherwise, ever find out about these important endorsements? I have a relative who firmly believes Elon Musk believes in free speech. I hope social media users are sharing information and values to persuade potential voters what's at stake.
We are the messengers.
I personally plan to reach out to all the people I know in swing states through calls, and all the young people in my life. Every mind we change matters, if we're all doing this, we'll have a huge impact.
I do send or discuss F2F key talking points, economic facts, as well as one or two of the ever upbeat and enthusiastic Simon’s excellent graphs to a small circle of folk.
It has evolved organically that I advise informally well intentioned yet frustrated folk who are at a loss for WTF to say to the tRumper next door or across the table. Even though I am a retired public school administrator who can talk a kitty off a tuna boat,
(and textbank like a teenager🤭) learning new useful kernels is always welcome and valuable, IMO!
I find strategies, training opportunities and information from Indivisibles, invaluable! If anyone is not aware of them, they are terrific group, operating in communities nationwide. Ezra Levin is one of the founders. Indivisible can be found at: https://indivisible.org
Members have been energized to ignite successful grassroots efforts: such as ignored senior citizens finally embarrassing a repub congressman in Indiana enough so he was forced to meet with them, force cowardly reps in AZ, OH, NM not to ignore constituents but to see & hear their concerns, hold town meetings where none had ever been and won proven change since 2016. 🇺🇸☮️YES, WE KAM!!🗽🇺🇸
QUESTION: COAT TAILS or TICKET SPLITTING?
In most swing states, we see Democratic senate candidates polling very well, with comfortable leads, while the Harris–Trump polls show closer races. And yet, in our hyperpartisan era, there is relatively little ticket-splitting. Which raises the topic of which candidate(s) will influence whom...
Simon, my three related questions:
– Do you expect Democratic senate candidates to underperform?
– Do you think Kamala Harris is likely to overperform her polls (reverse coat tails)?
– Or are we likely to see as much ticket-splitting as indicated by the current divergent polls?
We do the work, but any thoughts about these voting dynamics would be most appreciated!
I know I'm not Simon, but some thoughts from an article on this in May:
"In 1976, according to ANES, more than one-quarter of voters split their ticket between president and Congress. The numbers were similar in 1988, another year without a significant third-party candidate confusing voting statistics.
In 1988, because of a quirk in Texas election laws originally crafted for Lyndon Johnson, Democratic Sen. Lloyd Bentsen simultaneously ran for reelection and vice president on a doomed ticket with Michael Dukakis. The power of ticket-splitting was demonstrated when Sen. Bentsen ran nearly 800,000 votes ahead of Vice President Bentsen.
The difference between presidential and congressional voting patterns in those days can be partially explained by how slowly Southern states made the transition to the Republican Party. As a result, moderate House Democrats like John Spratt in South Carolina held on to their seats until the 2010s.
By 2012, the last normal presidential election without Trump on the ballot, 89 percent of the electorate voted a straight ticket for president and Congress. As both parties became more ideologically uniform, there was less temptation for voters to pick one candidate from Column A and another from Column B. "
https://rollcall.com/2024/05/14/will-the-last-ticket-splitting-voter-please-turn-out-the-light/
In other words, I think that the senate and presidential numbers will converge by the time we get to November.
That’s my thinking as well. The key question is, converge at which level – closer to the Senate candidates’ poll numbers or to Kamala Harris’ poll numbers?
(As I understand it, Harris is still rising, the polls are still catching up. I’m optimistically waiting for her convention bounce!)
I think her numbers will trend up, but I also think it will be the final numbers being higher than her polling.
1.Trump underperformed significantly in the primaries this year when they were still competitive. He underperformed by 3% to 30% depending on the state. I have yet to see an explanation as to how/why polls now are more accurate.
2. The senate/gov (in NC) candidates are generally MAGA or MAGA+ candidates, which is why they are behind. At the end of the day, if you don't want MAGA, you don't want MAGA. I think Kari Lake and Robinson in NC will likely make those states blue this year, hence I think her numbers go up to match the other candidates. Plus, you have abortion amendments in NV and other places that also may help drive her numbers up.
I think this could be a lot like 1980 where the polling is close but the end result moves a lot in the last week.
WRT Mark Robinson, a very interesting post from a substack on NC Politics that I follow:
https://www.politicsnc.com/p/will-the-gop-pull-the-plug-on-robinson?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Thanks for sharing. That’s exactly what I am thinking.
I thought with some special elections (i.e., OH, perhaps), Democratic new registration of women was quite high. I believe this will be one for the history books.
It certainly can be! If we keep doing the work from now until election day, I think you are correct.
Anderson Clayton was amazing on Rachael Maddow last night night . She’s extremely informative, energetic … an outstanding communicator for North Carolina. Thank you for introducing Hopium Community to Anderson early on. Her leadership is inspiring!
HS Students: Earn a $150 gift card for running a voter registration drive with the Civics Center:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/27/2265361/-Are-you-a-HS-student-teacher-parent-or-admin-or-know-one-A-great-way-to-register-new-voters
On Josh Riley... I attended Swing Blue Alliance's Frontline Update and Josh attended from his car with his wife and children on his way to canvas. I was moved enough to book an Air BNB (it's a 3 hour drive for us) for my husband and me.
I also contacted a friend who has get to take action and she and her husband are going to give it a day. One of the morals of this story is that if you have been asking others to get involved - ask again. Many are ready now.
Thank you! He is a great candidate.
💙 both ads. I see Team Harris managed to get in Trump’s small, accordion hands.😏
DeSantis was on the Space Coast last week bragging about all the companies coming to FL.
DeSantis is why the rent (and mortgage) is too damn high !
⬇️
Florida homes owned by corporate investors: 117,000 — and counting
Many Florida neighborhood are grappling with a broader trend disrupting the real estate industry, once controlled almost entirely by homeowners and mom-and-pop landlords. Corporate real estate investors own more than 117,000 single-family homes across Florida, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis of the state by the Tampa Bay Times. Experts say these investors capitalized on the state’s population growth and minimal renter protections. [Source: Tampa Bay Times]
https://www.floridatrend.com/article/40924/florida-homes-owned-by-corporate-investors-117000-and-counting
It's my not very popular belief that along with the right to health care, every person in America has the right to be homed, ie, live in a home. Accordingly, I think that residential real estate should be off-limits for investment. I realize it'll never happen, but anything that can be done by the federal government to further 'homing' people is something I support.
Very interesting.
Simon… a request. Can you also post on Threads. Lots of Twitter refugees there!
I post daily there but only once a day.
Awesome! Found you and followed. I've never been on Twitter/X, but downloaded Threads for the Olympics and am still enjoying it a lot.
This is happening now in NC -
A friend has shared this WRAL News article with you.
https://wr.al/1Sc78
After hearing of vote roll purging in Texas and other states, it's now an issue in NC and happening pretty late in the election cycle. And considering that Trump only beat Biden by ~75,000 votes in 2020, it could be meaningful.
I am canvassing in the area outside of Raleigh and both our scripts and the literature we hand out remind the people we meet to register and to check that their voter registration is active.
Thanks for your post. A dear friend, following encouragement to have voters check their registration here in NC, found that 3 of her contacts had been purged. One had even voted in the spring primary.
It's also important to note that purged voters can still cast provisional ballots. So on election day and during early voting we need to get everyone to the polls and make sure they bring an ID whether we got them to re-register or not. We can even call those people up and make sure they confirm their ballot has been "cured" after the election. I did it for the Georgia runoff. I think we need to do a better job communicating what these purges actually mean. Too often, our message sounds like, "They purged the voter rolls, so let's all go stick our heads in an oven." It discourages people and might even depress our turnout if people think the election is lost months in advance. Positive messages motivate people. Trying to convince people we live in Venezuela just makes them want to stay home. We have many more volunteers than they have. We have the resources to jump this hurdle.
FOX News refused to air a single minute of Adam Kinzinger or the other Republicans who took the stage at the DNC to endorse Kamala Harris for president.
SUGGESTION: The Harris-Walz Campaign can puncture the reality-denying Fox news bubble by cutting an ad that highlights the message of these brave, patriotic Republicans who are putting "country above party". That ad would invite Fox viewers to follow their good example!
Great ad by Monica Tranel running for the MT-01 seat. It is a little bit of a stretch but if Tester is going to win Montana Tranel will probably have to win her seat.
https://nitter.poast.org/MonicaTranel/status/1828426369535242259#m