I shared this on Facebook and have gotten A LOT of positive feedback, including from some of my husband's Mormon relatives. Apparently, at least here in AZ, there are a lot of Mormons for Kamala. The Republican Mayor of Mesa who spoke at the DNC, John Giles, was on Ali Veslshi's show this weekend and he said their LDS for Kamala group was over 100,000 strong!
A conjecture -- apart from any genuine policy differences -- is that the Rs that the campaign is trying to reach are more dependable voters than people on the 'far left.' The truth is many of the people on the far left despise the D party, and would never vote for it anyway. I mean, there are precisely *zero* issues where a fascist MAGA party under Trump would be better for left policies than the Ds.
Totally agree with your last sentence, don't get me wrong. I also heard on one of the podcasts that these persuadable GOP voters are reliable voters, so it makes sense to invest energy there. Thanks for reminding me of that :)
Thanks for the link. A lot of people are sceptical of the outreach to the Rs --and not just because of policy differences -- but because it's something that is has been talked about in other elections (although nowhwere near like it is now), and hasn't come to fruition. It's a similar story with Rs winning more of the black vote;:CBS recently showed Kamala at 87-12 with the black vote, the exact percentage Biden got. Kamala will get more than that because of the unprecedented turnout of black women, which likely will be greater than it was for Obama.
But this isn't amateur pundits doing it, it's a campaign with basically unlimited resources, and access to the best political analysis existing. It would be foolhardy to think they don't know what they're doing.
I think it's not just about getting the R's but getting R-leaners. There are definitely a lot of voters won't vote for Trump, but have to be persuaded to vote Harris.
I would guess there are potential Trump voters who maybe won't vote Harris, but feel more comfortable with her and won't vote Trump. They might vote 3rd party or stay home if they get some level of comfort with Harris.
This part- the Harris campaign is awash with money, volunteers, and a fantastic GOTV. They’re not making hard decisions about where to expend limited resources, they’ve got what they need to finish really strong.
I am THRILLED that they’re going to Houston, to me that’s a positive sign that they feel confident sending their #2 to a non “swing” state.
I love how the Harris campaign has so much cash to splash that they can do outreach in higher-risk states and areas. And yes, Harris has hired the crème de la crème of experts. People who know more than you or me or any other armchair pundit. (Though they might take calls from Simon, or some of the other substackers who know quite a bit more than ordinary posters!)
What is an especial stroke of good luck for us is that this infusion of money into the Democratic Party apparatus came when Jaime Harrison is leading the DNC. Harrison appears to be going back to the Howard Dean days of 50 state strategy, or at least branching out from playing it safe. (I felt my inner Cassandra ping when the Obama team fired Howard Dean from the DNC. Not good, thought I. Harrison is the best DNC chair since Dean. JMHO.)
Someone was caterwauling on another board about how the DSCC gave Martin Heinrich in NM some 95K. That’s less than six figures, and god knows Gary Peters can afford that. Yes, Heinrich is safe. But there is a swingy House district (NM 2) downballot, and state and local races, and New Mexico is a cheaparoonie media market that a few people across the border in Texas might tune into. So why not throw a tiny little chicken bone NM’s way? Could well be that people getting up off the couch to vote for Heinrich will vote for Gabe Vasquez in NM-2 as well. And if some people in Texas see it, well, yay.
I agree with you. At least online (my actual friend circle are reliable Democratic voters, even if they don’t always love the whole party platform), you hear caterwauls of “but you have to EARN our vote first!” Sweetcheeks, that’s not how it works. First you vote. THEN the Senator/POTUS/Representative/City Council member will listen to you because *now you are a constituent.* Your vote is your voice. If you don’t vote you are silent.
So of course it makes sense that a party is going to want to court reliable potential voters! That’s how you win office!
And there is no universe, not even far out in the Crab Nebula, where Trump and the MAGAs and Project 25 are going to be better for far left policies. That seems to be extremely basic knowledge; I don’t know if the chest thumpers and burn-it-all-down types are just posturing online or if they are that disaffected. But in either case, no, nobody is going to go “earn their vote.”
I've volunteered for political campaigns for many decades. My first experience was in high school in 1978. In my opinion, the Harris-Walz campaign is the best operation I have ever seen. They deserve my respect. I'm highly suspicious of any armchair quarterbacking at this stage. I have gotten into online disputes with those who criticize the use of Liz Cheney. Taking Liz to red areas of PA, MI and WI is exactly the right move at this point. I'm all for it. In a parallel universe, the House reconvened on Jan 6 and certified the election. They impeached and removed Trump immediately. Pence finished out the last two weeks of Trump's term. In THIS universe, the GOP voted to acquit. They invited Trump back into the fold. They replaced Liz's seat in congress with a total clown. In THIS universe, Liz is vitally important to getting those Nikki Haley voters. This is the gist of my argument to people who feel otherwise.
I've seen people criticize the use of Cheney and had some of the same discussions.
The advantage Harris has is that very few people are going to criticize her for being insufficiently liberal because they recognize the danger of Trump. So we should use Cheney. Harris also had the advantage of not having to run in a primary to the left and then migrate to the middle.
Trump is the incumbent in the sense that everyone knows him and just needs to be reminded. Harris needed to be reintroduced to people, whose opinions were formed with only superficial information.
I think also the idea of a loyal opposition eventually emerging -- something to replace the current GOP which needs to be gutted -- is another thing to consider.
Yesterday I was disheartened to read an article by Robert Kuttner knocking Kamala Harris’ campaign. I won’t bother linking to it, because I think he’s way off base. Kuttner is terrific when he writes about economic policy, but he is way out of his depth talking about political campaigns, Israel and the Middle East conflict(s).
I used to avidly read the Prospect back in the Bush years and through Obama. They not only had political commentary, but social commentary as well (Kathryn Edin on why low income women don’t want to get married. Tl;dr it’s not worth it to them), just a whole lot of “general interest for nerds.”
It somehow jumped the shark circa 2018 when I think they lost a lot of their more interesting contributors and spread themselves a bit too thin. Kuttner needs to stick to economics, I agree. And David Dayen seems to have a weird hate for Kamala Harris, based on her back ground as a prosecutor. Well, “defund the police” turned out to be a failure, so I don’t think Dayen has much to stand on there.
So, this Kuttner guy sounds like a football fan. I remember a coach saying a long time ago that his job was to be yelled at for three straight hours by a group of guys who, after the game was over, could not find their cars.
Those Haley voters and admirers of Liz Cheney (and did I ever dream back in 2004 that I would type “Dick Cheney is doing the right thing?” No) are a lot of well-off suburban women who 1) always turn up at the polls, 2) might not be down with some of the far-left party platform but are DEFINITELY pro choice and feminist, 3) could well be part of a movement to get a center-left and center-right party system back. And did I mention they are pro-choice and Dobbs has fired them up?
The Haley/Cheney voters are a lot more reliable than the very far left anyway. I also think that Harris knows exactly what she is doing. She is running her campaign like a well oiled machine. It’s nothing, NOTHING like 2016.
Harris is the CEO of a billion dollar company that has over-achieved its quarterly estimates. It's run by strategists who have won multiple presidential elections. So, yeah, I'm likely to think they know where they court voters.
It makes me so frustrated when people wring their hands and compare this election to 2016. Two completely different candidates, two completely different contexts, and two completely different campaign infrastructures. I love Hillary Clinton, and believe that she would have been an amazing president, but her campaign was not as cohesive and well-run as Harris-Walz's.
That’s ridiculous. Those comments were from trolls pretending to be blue voters. They say what they say to upset democrats. Trills come in all shapes and sizes these days. Ignore negativity coming from a fake dem.
It’s a new tactic started months ago to discourage us. I saw it immediately on Steve Schmidt’s, pointed it out, got into disagreements which could have been with trolls and decided to hell with this and unsubscribed and it was a paid subscription. Simon doesn’t put up with crap and that’s one of the many reasons I subscribe, i feel safe. Also Jeff Tiedrich’s newsletter became full of them and nothing was done. Commenters believed them and just wanted to argue, I unsubscribed to his too. Don’t have time to be angry and argue, that’s what they want.
Absolutely! It seems one of their "tells" on this site is to be the first commenter after Simon posts. It's remarkable how often the first post of the day is deleted when I have a chance to get on and check out the conversation.
There is also a great Substack by Dan Pfeiffer where he talks about why going after persuadable Reps is a good strategy. He says there are four main reasons:
1. She’s expanding the Dems coalition while others like Obama/walz are firing up the base
2. Haley Reps are high value targets because they’re very likely to vote
3. Campaigning with Cheney and others pushes back on the (bogus) claims that she is a „liberal Extremist“
4. And last but not least, as a quote: „Every time Kamala Harris stands with a rock-ribbed Republican who has abandoned Trump, it reminds people that Trump is a unique threat.“
1) its not a choice. It's and. We need everyone. 2) we don't bring worry and complaints of people from social media in here. The comments below from Pfeiffer are spot on. 3) the least effective us of our time in these next two weeks is questioning the strategy of the campaign. Onward - S
Love it. I'm an ethical capitalist (Adam Smith capitalist) and I disagree with an assault rifle ban, but I'm also not an idiot (at least not for political reasons). No "purity tests" required for me.
Thanks Simon. Appreciate everything you do to keep our eyes on the prize. I sent 40 postcards to do early voting in Milwaukee. Phonebanked with a friend on Sunday & on my own on Sat to Wisconsin. Thursday I'm phonebanking with a group in my neighborhood (I imagine to the sunbelt since it's in the evening & I'm in LA). I've been donating in your links. Then on Sunday I'm leading my activist group that's been doing postcarding to switch gears and start phonebanking (I've been the main phonebanker this past several months, so I'm seasoned). Doing more, worrying less. Every Harris/Dem voter I speak with or postcard I send I say vote early. Vote Day 1. In solidarity, we got this!
The demographics of Texas are changing.. profoundly. Tom DeLay could no longer win his Fort Bend County seat. I track Texas school district enrollments to help
me see the broader community. “White” kids now down to 17 percent of the Fort Bend enrollment (adjacent to Houston). White kids in the mid-50 percent range when DeLay held office.
It was a deep red area. Hillary became the first Dem to carry DeLay’s district- by 6 points. Biden carried Fort Bend by nearly 11 points
The next area to flip is Collin County north of Dallas. GOPers carried Collin by 49 and 43 points in 2000 and 2004! I expect Harris to flip Collin. Biden came within 4.4 points.
It’s a rapidly growing suburban Dallas area … white population in decline; Asian and Hispanic communities GROWING!
Obama lost Texas by 15.8
Clinton lost Texas by 9
Biden lost Texas by 5.6
Harris will continue the trend line… the closer she gets to 2 or 3 points, the more vulnerable Cruz becomes.
It's absolutely stunning and horribly frightening to think your Secretary of State, Ken Paxton, wants to subpoena women's medical records. I just hope and pray women in Texas are voting in massive numbers and Paxton is not trying to take away their votes. I'm sure you can find out if there are voter protection hotlines set up by calling Colin Allred's or Jasmine Crockett's offices.
In 2020 I was obsessed with Texas and turning it blue and did a lot of the data demographics like you. Back in 2020, my “back of the envelope” scratches showed Texas turning blue in 2028.
I still think this- I think Harris will get within 3 points, I think Allred has a great shot, and I think in 2028- we win Texas. Once that happens- we’ve got the White House for a while.
I’ve been saying for a while- Texas isn’t a red state, it’s a voter suppressed state. If we can improve turnout in Harris County (Houston) by just a few percentage points, we’re there.
We are on the same page. I have Texas turning in 2028 or 2032. We will have a better indication next month. GOPers can’t make voting much harder; they’ve played their cards.
National GOP consultant Whit Ayres told me a dozen years ago he was concerned about Texas in the out-years (because of the shifting demographics) … knowing it’s gonna get grim once they lose Texas.
Where do they recover 40 EC votes? Probably 42 after 2030….
Thanks for all the encouraging words, Gary. I voted yesterday in Houston. Democrats in Texas are not as scarce as Dems in other states think so hearing all this positive feedback and having a candidate like Allred is great. You don’t hear much about Beto but he’s been working hard registering voters. He’s so associated with his “take their guns” comment he hasn’t been campaigning for Allred but he’s our Stacy Abrams.
You are correct. Beto’s Power to the People organization has registered many thousands of voters… mostly on college campuses. Now pivoting to turnout. He’s helping raise money for Allred.
(I’ve known Beto since he was 9; stay in regular contact)
I’ve recently donated significantly x 2 to Beto’s Power to the People efforts.
I also love the “take their (F’king) guns” sentiment; but yes, I know that scares the ish out of many Texans. I was bornn& raised there, but moved to NM in 1986.
Most of my close & extended family still live there. My younger sister has it in her head that VP Harris is a communist (from FB I’m sure) & that very short vid clip that shows Kamala saying something about “We’ll come in your house & check to see if you’ve properly secured your guns.”
Does anyone know if that clip is real?
Was it taken out of context? Or is it AI?
If it is real, then I wish the Harris campaign would address it because I’m sure my sister isn’t the only person who believes it!!
Personally, I LOVED Beto’s “take their guns” comment but I know it hurt him.
And we see yet again how smart Harris/Walz are being, in making it clear Harris has a handgun for protection and Walz is a hunter. They’re the perfect people to advocate for common sense gun safety, because under their plan- people like them (law abiding responsible citizens) keep their guns.
I just watched/ listened to Ben Meiselas on MTN interviewing Crag Snyder. Crag oversees the PAC of Haley voters for Harris.
I did not understand how organized they are until I saw this. They are laser focused upon increasing their approximately 30% of Harris votes to reach the available 25-30%. They’ve determined about 40% will vote GOP. Recommend watching on MTN. Simon, this may be someone you want to bring on HC to interview. I found his work very inspiring🇺🇸🇺🇸
Another significant pocket of GOP voters tired of djt!!
Very early but the TargetEarly info in Texas so far is nuts: massive gender gap (F-58 M-42) and the Modeled Party has Ds ahead 50 to 43. 15 days out in 2020 and 2022 Rs were ahead. I have no context for this data (maybe the data is only in from bluer counties so far?), but it's something to keep an eye on...especially the gender gap
This changed a lot in the past few days so must have been very preliminary information before. There still is a gender gap of 6, which is bigger than the 2022 gap, but I think like Simon encouraged recently we need to slow down with early voting data etc. I think this essay by Tom Bonier is required reading (and kind of expands on what Simon has said - they work together closely): https://tombonier.substack.com/p/the-case-for-cautious-early-vote
We voted yesterday in Austin, TX. Lines were long at 11:15 am. We were done by 12:30 pm. Longest time ever for us in Austin. It was frost day of voting.
Thanks Simon, I've pretty much stopped following the polling averages, stopped consuming most media, and hunkered down to finish my second set of postcards for mailing on Oct 24th.
Which brings me to a question for everyone: What are you doing on election day?
I'll be passing out Dem sample ballots at voting sites in Fairfax County, Va. I'll keep an eye on the sign-up sheets and fill in unstaffed 2-hour slots as needed at different precincts. I've already done this five times at early voting sites.
My husband and I received our absentee ballots on Oct. 17 and returned them to the county auditor's drop box on Oct. 18. It felt wonderful. I have to stamp the last 100 of my postcards that are to be mailed on Oct. 24. All my postcards for other organizations (including Hopium) have gone out. I have a few more letters to do for Vote Forward. I'm in Christina Bohannan's district in IA and have also been delivering requested yard signs for her.
What I did in 2022, probably: hand out Dem slates at my polling place and take down signs. I don't like sitting in front of the TV, staying busy helps!
After a minor freakout yesterday morning i came back to my senses after reminding myself of this simple fact: the race has only moved significantly once since the summer, and that was when Biden dropped out to endorse VP Harris. Every other event since then, even the debate, wasn’t able to shift the race in any meaningful way. So there is no real reason to think that the state of the race - us winning - will change in the coming 14 days. Or to quote yesterday’s Steady Substack (which i highly recommend):
„ Remember that a race this close — and it has been close for months — will not change significantly over the next two weeks. If you see a poll or anything else that suggests a huge swing in either direction, it is likely bunk.“
In my head I've got two meaningful events since Kamala became the nominee. The Mark Robinson fiasco helped us a medium amount in NC, and the debate helped us a very small bit nationwide. The remainder is just noise.
There’s no Comey letter to move the needle at the last minute this time around. Things might wobble and wibble a bit here and there, but I don’t see any big change, either.
That’s why Simon keeps reminding that close elections hinge on turnout.
And Dems have more money and an experienced ground game operation while Trump has outsourced that vital part of a winning campaign to Mr Eratic: Elon musk.
Yesterday we watched the town halls with VP Harris and Liz Cheney. Some friends and I were writing postcards for the Michigan State Supreme Court (postcardstovoters.org). Like Olivia Troye here on Hopium last Friday, Liz Cheney emphatically stated a very large number of Republicans are voting for VP Harris and Governor Walz. I was also really moved about some of the questions: A young woman in Oakland County, MI who had survived a school shooting asked very specific questions about gun control. A man who is a teacher in a Catholic school asked about Ukraine. The answers by VP President and Liz Cheney showed how very, very intelligent they are and how deeply they care about our country. And of course they reminded everyone that Retired General Mark Miley has stated "trump is fascist to the core". These small events calm me.
A winning coalition is made of several groups and communities. We as democrats are and should be a big tent party, and for at least this campaign, I welcome sane people ( whom believe in a world with civil disagreement ) with open arms. There are more of us than there are of them! D.M.W.L. Keep calm and campaign on and NEVER let the bastards wear you down!!!
Linda, from here in Michigan, THANK YOU for writing postcards for Kyra and Kim! If Kim wins, our state Supreme Court has a 5-2 liberal judge advantage. This is fantastic.
PS I also believe that Liz Cheney will serve in a Harris administration in some capacity.
After seeing Jess Craven/Robert Hubbell's interview w/ Drew Kromer (27 yo party chair!) of the Mecklenburg (NC) Dems, I signed up to volunteer. On Thursday I drove 7+ hours to Charlotte. I met amazing volunteers (mostly women, but also a handful of men.... lots from NC, including people from Asheville; lots from Masschusetts. My canvassing partners came from DC and Baltimore. People are *committed*, y'all!!!) I canvassed one shift Friday, three shifts Saturday, and one more shift Sunday before I had to drive home. In the evenings, my new friend and I spent hours driving around Meck county placing hundreds of signs on the roadsides. We did this Friday and Saturday nights well past midnight, and did another sign mission Sunday morning when it was too early to knock on doors. On Saturday evening we were placing signs at a major intersection (no pedestrians and a TON of cars) and a guy appeared out of nowhere to tell me that when we were done there we needed to head down to a different area 5 miles away that had too many Repub signs. (And he was right. it was a good assignment!) This guy saw us working, pulled over, parked at a gas station, and crossed six lanes of traffic to tell me this!! And while we were standing there chatting with him, another guy-- a young white guy! -- pulled over to ask us if he could still register to vote. (Turns out he was registered in PA so we told him to absentee there). And re: canvassing: A lot of people weren't home -- it was an absolutely gorgeous weekend -- and our lists were heavily D leaning, so this was not a "challenging" assignment in terms of having hard conversations; almost every conversation we had with voters was positive. This was all about GOTV (we left a lot of lit when folks weren't home) and it was all really fun and energizing. I loved talking to voters, getting to meet the amazing staff and volunteers, and seeing the overall great energy in Mecklenburg. And they need more help!! The county has a high percentage of blue voters but historically very low turnout, so the GOTV effort is crucial and they have built a terrific operation there to improve the numbers (and hopefully by a lot!) If anyone wants to canvass and can get there, they will put you to work. They have shifts 7 days a week and they are ORGANIZED! I am going to try to go back for Nov 3-5. (And until then, I'm postcarding and phonebanking!) Thanks everyone for being part of this awesome community!
Thank you Rebecca! I can’t be there but I will send ( another) donation to NC today in honor and support of your work!!!! Thank you for doing the work some of us would like to help with but can’t. I’m so impressed you would drive 14 hours RT!!🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you for doing this! I came to Mecklenburg County 5 weeks ago (I live in MN) and I agree with all that you said. Canvassing is going great and we are mobilizing voters! But we need as many volunteers as we can get! We are going to drive the turnout here where it needs to be and we are going to win NC!
You're killing it! Getting a vote in PA while canvassing in NC? I love it. I apologize for the lack of male support for your efforts. We're raised and socialized to expect women to do everything for us and election volunteering is no exception.
A couple of interesting polling findings that Simon didn't mention. First, undecideds are breaking 2-1 for Harris (64-36, specifically). Second, support for Trump among whites (or maybe white men) with a college degree has slipped about 10% since 2020. I continue to be bullish and am curious why Simon is calling PA competitive when a credible source in yesterday's thread wrote that it's looking like we'll h hit our firewall and then some pretty soon.
ETA: Come to think of it, I believe I do know why Simon is calling PA competitive. It's because the R's are slightly overperforming the EV relative to 2020 where the three battlegrounds he's highlighting have us overperforming 2020 by a good amount. So: My response is YES, AND: 1) We will have a higher percentage of the election day vote because young people, 2) D and R votes aren't created equal in a world where there is a Republican schism, and 3) this year's EV is older, whiter and more rural than what we saw in 2020, i.e., they're expending a higher percentage of their voting resources in the EV.
1. “Women and male voters break in near opposite directions: men for Trump, 56% to 42%, and women for Harris, 55% to 41%” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Hispanic voters break for Harris, 61% to 35% and Black voters 81% to 12%, while white voters break for Trump 60% to 38%.”
Those seem like good Latino and Black voter margins to me.
2. “Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%,” Kimball said. “The three percent of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48% to 43%.”
Eminem is introducing Obama at a Detroit rally. Any coalition that includes Dick Cheney, Bernie Sanders, AND Eminem can’t lose. Driving the vote in Detroit, a city that Trump just disparaged. :)
That rally in Detroit is after President Obama and Governor Walz are in Madison for a rally beginning about 1:30 central time in a Madison arena that seats 8500. Then Governor Walz goes on to an evening rally in Racine WI! Thursday President Obama and VP Harris are making their first joint appearance in Atlanta with Bruce Springsteen. I always think of several things: 1) How extraordinarily expensive these rallies must be, how stressful this must be for the underpaid and overworked Secret Service teams, and 3) what remarkable energy VP Harris, President Obama, Tim Walz, the others have to keep this up day after day with multiple events in one day.
My 14-YO daughter, who helped me with postcarding, would probably be more excited about this than Taylor Swift's endorsement. :-) She's a huge Eminem fan.
Thank you, Simon--especially for Kamala's point of Do not Despair. I also found this commentary to be very noteworthy and inspiring on MSNBC Morning Joe: (Mika) Just one final point about Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney, and seeing them up on stage together talking about Democracy and talking about the dangers of a 2nd Trump administration. I just found it striking as well to see two women of wisdom and experience from two completely different backgrounds and two completely different points of view being the example, holding up the pillars of freedom together. It was really impressive and I hope young women everywhere--and everyone everywhere--takes a look at what they are doing right now, in this moment, where what is needed is strength to stand up and speak out, and not to cower. (Joe agreeing) With real strength, real compassion and a real love of our constitution. To listen at time 8:45 in: https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/-real-conservatives-love-their-country-and-want-it-to-continue-joe-on-cheney-backing-harris-222355013671
We had an opportunity to spend an evening in January 2024 hearing Rep. Cheney present her talk and Q&A as a featured speaker of the Colorado Speaker Series. She is intelligent, engaging, witty, and powerful in her defense of core American values. At that time, she was anti-Trump, but would not commit to voting for Joe Biden. What a fascinating evolution to becoming a key surrogate for Harris/Walz.
Two of the best things I heard in that PA conversation with VP Harris, Liz Cheney, and Sarah Longwell:
1) Liz Cheney said (paraphrasing), I am 100% pro-life. I have been all my life. But when I see what's happening in these state legislatures, and women are not getting the care they need, and being vilified, it's not right. We need to correct that.
I don't agree with her on abortion. I am 100% pro-choice. And everyone could see this coming if RvW were ever overturned. But her having reflection about what has happened and treating these issues as serious and worthy of intelligent discourse is what should be expected of our leaders. Not "Everyone wanted this! The founders wanted it! It's beautiful! It's a state's rights issue!"
2) When VP Harris said (paraphrasing). That's why I'm going to have a Republican in my cabinet. I want good ideas from everywhere. And we should have good discussions and strong debates based on facts...
The audience applauded that line, and then VP Harris said, laughing, "Isn't that something? When that [saying we should have discussions and debates based on facts] is an applause line?"
The audience loved that. She is soooo right. I look forward to the days when we can just beat the hell out of each other in policy debates based on facts and logic, instead of just throwing out fallacy after fallacy, gaslighting, lies, and performative nonsense that is supposed to pass as "informing the public" about our positions.
My bet for the Republican in her cabinet will be Adam Kinzinger as head of the VA. I don’t think Cheney wants an admin post, my (totally unfounded) opinion is Cheney wants to rebuild a better GOP on the ashes of MAGA.
I was thinking Kinzinger, also. VA makes a lot of sense. I agree Cheney wants to work on fixing the GOP before a cabinet spot. Also, I don't think Cheney could hold a cabinet position in a Harris administration. She is extremely conservative-- not a moderate. Cabinets recommend policy, so it would be tough on both of them.
Hey Simon, thank you as always for these updates that are keeping me sane. Happy to answer the call (or more accurately, make the calls) and join the Hopium phone bank tonight. See you there.
magnificent.
OMG. Has got to go viral. Am sending to all my friends. Thank you and thank you Lincoln Project!
Thank you. Everyone needs to see this.
I shared this on Facebook and have gotten A LOT of positive feedback, including from some of my husband's Mormon relatives. Apparently, at least here in AZ, there are a lot of Mormons for Kamala. The Republican Mayor of Mesa who spoke at the DNC, John Giles, was on Ali Veslshi's show this weekend and he said their LDS for Kamala group was over 100,000 strong!
OMG, this is awesome. Forwarding it on. Thanks for posting.
A conjecture -- apart from any genuine policy differences -- is that the Rs that the campaign is trying to reach are more dependable voters than people on the 'far left.' The truth is many of the people on the far left despise the D party, and would never vote for it anyway. I mean, there are precisely *zero* issues where a fascist MAGA party under Trump would be better for left policies than the Ds.
Totally agree with your last sentence, don't get me wrong. I also heard on one of the podcasts that these persuadable GOP voters are reliable voters, so it makes sense to invest energy there. Thanks for reminding me of that :)
You're welcome :-)
I just found this, had missed it last month, from Marcy Wheeler--with lots of figures about why it's a smart strategy to court persuadable GOP voters: https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/09/27/vp-harris-haley-play/
Thanks for the link. A lot of people are sceptical of the outreach to the Rs --and not just because of policy differences -- but because it's something that is has been talked about in other elections (although nowhwere near like it is now), and hasn't come to fruition. It's a similar story with Rs winning more of the black vote;:CBS recently showed Kamala at 87-12 with the black vote, the exact percentage Biden got. Kamala will get more than that because of the unprecedented turnout of black women, which likely will be greater than it was for Obama.
But this isn't amateur pundits doing it, it's a campaign with basically unlimited resources, and access to the best political analysis existing. It would be foolhardy to think they don't know what they're doing.
I think it's not just about getting the R's but getting R-leaners. There are definitely a lot of voters won't vote for Trump, but have to be persuaded to vote Harris.
I would guess there are potential Trump voters who maybe won't vote Harris, but feel more comfortable with her and won't vote Trump. They might vote 3rd party or stay home if they get some level of comfort with Harris.
This part- the Harris campaign is awash with money, volunteers, and a fantastic GOTV. They’re not making hard decisions about where to expend limited resources, they’ve got what they need to finish really strong.
I am THRILLED that they’re going to Houston, to me that’s a positive sign that they feel confident sending their #2 to a non “swing” state.
I love how the Harris campaign has so much cash to splash that they can do outreach in higher-risk states and areas. And yes, Harris has hired the crème de la crème of experts. People who know more than you or me or any other armchair pundit. (Though they might take calls from Simon, or some of the other substackers who know quite a bit more than ordinary posters!)
What is an especial stroke of good luck for us is that this infusion of money into the Democratic Party apparatus came when Jaime Harrison is leading the DNC. Harrison appears to be going back to the Howard Dean days of 50 state strategy, or at least branching out from playing it safe. (I felt my inner Cassandra ping when the Obama team fired Howard Dean from the DNC. Not good, thought I. Harrison is the best DNC chair since Dean. JMHO.)
Someone was caterwauling on another board about how the DSCC gave Martin Heinrich in NM some 95K. That’s less than six figures, and god knows Gary Peters can afford that. Yes, Heinrich is safe. But there is a swingy House district (NM 2) downballot, and state and local races, and New Mexico is a cheaparoonie media market that a few people across the border in Texas might tune into. So why not throw a tiny little chicken bone NM’s way? Could well be that people getting up off the couch to vote for Heinrich will vote for Gabe Vasquez in NM-2 as well. And if some people in Texas see it, well, yay.
`YES !
I agree with you. At least online (my actual friend circle are reliable Democratic voters, even if they don’t always love the whole party platform), you hear caterwauls of “but you have to EARN our vote first!” Sweetcheeks, that’s not how it works. First you vote. THEN the Senator/POTUS/Representative/City Council member will listen to you because *now you are a constituent.* Your vote is your voice. If you don’t vote you are silent.
So of course it makes sense that a party is going to want to court reliable potential voters! That’s how you win office!
And there is no universe, not even far out in the Crab Nebula, where Trump and the MAGAs and Project 25 are going to be better for far left policies. That seems to be extremely basic knowledge; I don’t know if the chest thumpers and burn-it-all-down types are just posturing online or if they are that disaffected. But in either case, no, nobody is going to go “earn their vote.”
I've volunteered for political campaigns for many decades. My first experience was in high school in 1978. In my opinion, the Harris-Walz campaign is the best operation I have ever seen. They deserve my respect. I'm highly suspicious of any armchair quarterbacking at this stage. I have gotten into online disputes with those who criticize the use of Liz Cheney. Taking Liz to red areas of PA, MI and WI is exactly the right move at this point. I'm all for it. In a parallel universe, the House reconvened on Jan 6 and certified the election. They impeached and removed Trump immediately. Pence finished out the last two weeks of Trump's term. In THIS universe, the GOP voted to acquit. They invited Trump back into the fold. They replaced Liz's seat in congress with a total clown. In THIS universe, Liz is vitally important to getting those Nikki Haley voters. This is the gist of my argument to people who feel otherwise.
Thanks, appreciate your perspective
I've seen people criticize the use of Cheney and had some of the same discussions.
The advantage Harris has is that very few people are going to criticize her for being insufficiently liberal because they recognize the danger of Trump. So we should use Cheney. Harris also had the advantage of not having to run in a primary to the left and then migrate to the middle.
Trump is the incumbent in the sense that everyone knows him and just needs to be reminded. Harris needed to be reintroduced to people, whose opinions were formed with only superficial information.
I think also the idea of a loyal opposition eventually emerging -- something to replace the current GOP which needs to be gutted -- is another thing to consider.
Hear, hear!
Yesterday I was disheartened to read an article by Robert Kuttner knocking Kamala Harris’ campaign. I won’t bother linking to it, because I think he’s way off base. Kuttner is terrific when he writes about economic policy, but he is way out of his depth talking about political campaigns, Israel and the Middle East conflict(s).
I used to avidly read the Prospect back in the Bush years and through Obama. They not only had political commentary, but social commentary as well (Kathryn Edin on why low income women don’t want to get married. Tl;dr it’s not worth it to them), just a whole lot of “general interest for nerds.”
It somehow jumped the shark circa 2018 when I think they lost a lot of their more interesting contributors and spread themselves a bit too thin. Kuttner needs to stick to economics, I agree. And David Dayen seems to have a weird hate for Kamala Harris, based on her back ground as a prosecutor. Well, “defund the police” turned out to be a failure, so I don’t think Dayen has much to stand on there.
So, this Kuttner guy sounds like a football fan. I remember a coach saying a long time ago that his job was to be yelled at for three straight hours by a group of guys who, after the game was over, could not find their cars.
Those Haley voters and admirers of Liz Cheney (and did I ever dream back in 2004 that I would type “Dick Cheney is doing the right thing?” No) are a lot of well-off suburban women who 1) always turn up at the polls, 2) might not be down with some of the far-left party platform but are DEFINITELY pro choice and feminist, 3) could well be part of a movement to get a center-left and center-right party system back. And did I mention they are pro-choice and Dobbs has fired them up?
The Haley/Cheney voters are a lot more reliable than the very far left anyway. I also think that Harris knows exactly what she is doing. She is running her campaign like a well oiled machine. It’s nothing, NOTHING like 2016.
Harris is the CEO of a billion dollar company that has over-achieved its quarterly estimates. It's run by strategists who have won multiple presidential elections. So, yeah, I'm likely to think they know where they court voters.
That’s a great perspective on the Harris-Walz Campaign!
It makes me so frustrated when people wring their hands and compare this election to 2016. Two completely different candidates, two completely different contexts, and two completely different campaign infrastructures. I love Hillary Clinton, and believe that she would have been an amazing president, but her campaign was not as cohesive and well-run as Harris-Walz's.
That’s ridiculous. Those comments were from trolls pretending to be blue voters. They say what they say to upset democrats. Trills come in all shapes and sizes these days. Ignore negativity coming from a fake dem.
Spot on! They've infested other substack publications. Some are more subtle than others, but they're pretty easy to recognize.
It’s a new tactic started months ago to discourage us. I saw it immediately on Steve Schmidt’s, pointed it out, got into disagreements which could have been with trolls and decided to hell with this and unsubscribed and it was a paid subscription. Simon doesn’t put up with crap and that’s one of the many reasons I subscribe, i feel safe. Also Jeff Tiedrich’s newsletter became full of them and nothing was done. Commenters believed them and just wanted to argue, I unsubscribed to his too. Don’t have time to be angry and argue, that’s what they want.
Absolutely! It seems one of their "tells" on this site is to be the first commenter after Simon posts. It's remarkable how often the first post of the day is deleted when I have a chance to get on and check out the conversation.
There is also a great Substack by Dan Pfeiffer where he talks about why going after persuadable Reps is a good strategy. He says there are four main reasons:
1. She’s expanding the Dems coalition while others like Obama/walz are firing up the base
2. Haley Reps are high value targets because they’re very likely to vote
3. Campaigning with Cheney and others pushes back on the (bogus) claims that she is a „liberal Extremist“
4. And last but not least, as a quote: „Every time Kamala Harris stands with a rock-ribbed Republican who has abandoned Trump, it reminds people that Trump is a unique threat.“
Here is the full article: https://www.messageboxnews.com/p/why-kamala-harris-is-focusing-on
It’s not an either or - they’re doing plenty of base mobilization and doing the big tent outreach.
1) its not a choice. It's and. We need everyone. 2) we don't bring worry and complaints of people from social media in here. The comments below from Pfeiffer are spot on. 3) the least effective us of our time in these next two weeks is questioning the strategy of the campaign. Onward - S
Thanks for your reply. I'll delete this post.
I'm a far leftist. But I like to win elections and I'm not an idiot.
Same!
Love it. I'm an ethical capitalist (Adam Smith capitalist) and I disagree with an assault rifle ban, but I'm also not an idiot (at least not for political reasons). No "purity tests" required for me.
Thanks Simon. Appreciate everything you do to keep our eyes on the prize. I sent 40 postcards to do early voting in Milwaukee. Phonebanked with a friend on Sunday & on my own on Sat to Wisconsin. Thursday I'm phonebanking with a group in my neighborhood (I imagine to the sunbelt since it's in the evening & I'm in LA). I've been donating in your links. Then on Sunday I'm leading my activist group that's been doing postcarding to switch gears and start phonebanking (I've been the main phonebanker this past several months, so I'm seasoned). Doing more, worrying less. Every Harris/Dem voter I speak with or postcard I send I say vote early. Vote Day 1. In solidarity, we got this!
Regarding the Texas Allred Senate reference:
The demographics of Texas are changing.. profoundly. Tom DeLay could no longer win his Fort Bend County seat. I track Texas school district enrollments to help
me see the broader community. “White” kids now down to 17 percent of the Fort Bend enrollment (adjacent to Houston). White kids in the mid-50 percent range when DeLay held office.
It was a deep red area. Hillary became the first Dem to carry DeLay’s district- by 6 points. Biden carried Fort Bend by nearly 11 points
The next area to flip is Collin County north of Dallas. GOPers carried Collin by 49 and 43 points in 2000 and 2004! I expect Harris to flip Collin. Biden came within 4.4 points.
It’s a rapidly growing suburban Dallas area … white population in decline; Asian and Hispanic communities GROWING!
Obama lost Texas by 15.8
Clinton lost Texas by 9
Biden lost Texas by 5.6
Harris will continue the trend line… the closer she gets to 2 or 3 points, the more vulnerable Cruz becomes.
Allred is within reach.
It's absolutely stunning and horribly frightening to think your Secretary of State, Ken Paxton, wants to subpoena women's medical records. I just hope and pray women in Texas are voting in massive numbers and Paxton is not trying to take away their votes. I'm sure you can find out if there are voter protection hotlines set up by calling Colin Allred's or Jasmine Crockett's offices.
The Texas GOP is down to the conservatives v the crazies. The crazies are winning… Abbott, Paxton, Cruz and Patrick (real name Dan Goeb)
In 2020 I was obsessed with Texas and turning it blue and did a lot of the data demographics like you. Back in 2020, my “back of the envelope” scratches showed Texas turning blue in 2028.
I still think this- I think Harris will get within 3 points, I think Allred has a great shot, and I think in 2028- we win Texas. Once that happens- we’ve got the White House for a while.
I’ve been saying for a while- Texas isn’t a red state, it’s a voter suppressed state. If we can improve turnout in Harris County (Houston) by just a few percentage points, we’re there.
We are on the same page. I have Texas turning in 2028 or 2032. We will have a better indication next month. GOPers can’t make voting much harder; they’ve played their cards.
National GOP consultant Whit Ayres told me a dozen years ago he was concerned about Texas in the out-years (because of the shifting demographics) … knowing it’s gonna get grim once they lose Texas.
Where do they recover 40 EC votes? Probably 42 after 2030….
Thanks for all the encouraging words, Gary. I voted yesterday in Houston. Democrats in Texas are not as scarce as Dems in other states think so hearing all this positive feedback and having a candidate like Allred is great. You don’t hear much about Beto but he’s been working hard registering voters. He’s so associated with his “take their guns” comment he hasn’t been campaigning for Allred but he’s our Stacy Abrams.
You are correct. Beto’s Power to the People organization has registered many thousands of voters… mostly on college campuses. Now pivoting to turnout. He’s helping raise money for Allred.
(I’ve known Beto since he was 9; stay in regular contact)
I’ve recently donated significantly x 2 to Beto’s Power to the People efforts.
I also love the “take their (F’king) guns” sentiment; but yes, I know that scares the ish out of many Texans. I was bornn& raised there, but moved to NM in 1986.
Most of my close & extended family still live there. My younger sister has it in her head that VP Harris is a communist (from FB I’m sure) & that very short vid clip that shows Kamala saying something about “We’ll come in your house & check to see if you’ve properly secured your guns.”
Does anyone know if that clip is real?
Was it taken out of context? Or is it AI?
If it is real, then I wish the Harris campaign would address it because I’m sure my sister isn’t the only person who believes it!!
Personally, I LOVED Beto’s “take their guns” comment but I know it hurt him.
And we see yet again how smart Harris/Walz are being, in making it clear Harris has a handgun for protection and Walz is a hunter. They’re the perfect people to advocate for common sense gun safety, because under their plan- people like them (law abiding responsible citizens) keep their guns.
I agree. Also, it will take fixing the Senate filibuster to address gun violence. The House voted 2 years ago to restore the ban on assault weapons.
It could not even be considered in the Senate because of the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster, which can basically be emailed.
The filibuster ensures minority rule, for which the founders did not intend.
The Beto’s and Abrams do the hard and unsung work of getting out the vote, and for that they should be praised.
You speak truth…
And donated to…!!!!
I just watched/ listened to Ben Meiselas on MTN interviewing Crag Snyder. Crag oversees the PAC of Haley voters for Harris.
I did not understand how organized they are until I saw this. They are laser focused upon increasing their approximately 30% of Harris votes to reach the available 25-30%. They’ve determined about 40% will vote GOP. Recommend watching on MTN. Simon, this may be someone you want to bring on HC to interview. I found his work very inspiring🇺🇸🇺🇸
Another significant pocket of GOP voters tired of djt!!
Very early but the TargetEarly info in Texas so far is nuts: massive gender gap (F-58 M-42) and the Modeled Party has Ds ahead 50 to 43. 15 days out in 2020 and 2022 Rs were ahead. I have no context for this data (maybe the data is only in from bluer counties so far?), but it's something to keep an eye on...especially the gender gap
I agree with your assessment. Thanx for sharing
💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🇺🇸🤣🙌🏻
This changed a lot in the past few days so must have been very preliminary information before. There still is a gender gap of 6, which is bigger than the 2022 gap, but I think like Simon encouraged recently we need to slow down with early voting data etc. I think this essay by Tom Bonier is required reading (and kind of expands on what Simon has said - they work together closely): https://tombonier.substack.com/p/the-case-for-cautious-early-vote
I have been donating heavily to Colin Allred, I want him to win so badly.
We’re winning this and I have no hesitation in saying and believing this. We’ll take the House again and I pray we keep the Senate.
We voted yesterday in Austin, TX. Lines were long at 11:15 am. We were done by 12:30 pm. Longest time ever for us in Austin. It was frost day of voting.
Here’s some interesting voter registration numbers for Texas
Texas has 3,522,846 more registered voters since the 2016 Trump election
15.101,087 million in 2016
18,623,931 million 2024
I have not looked across the board; I suspect the trend will show rural red counties losing.
Here is the gain in voter registration since 2016
Harris.................458,384
Bexar..................250,223
Tarrant................231,858
Collin...................211,394
Travis...................198,258
Dallas...................175,328
Fort Bend..............151,534
El Paso..................116,998
Hildago..................107,853
Here's the change in Democratic Votes and Vote Margin (DEM - REP) in these counties from 2016 to 2020.
Harris -- Votes: D+ 210,279 Margin: D+55,604
Bexar -- Votes: D+ 128,902 Margin: D+ 60,617
Tarrant -- Votes: 123,175 Margin: D+59,355 (Red to Blue Flip)
Collin -- Votes: D+ 90,321 Margin: D+ 39,017
Travis -- Votes: D+ 127,600 Margin: D+ 93,472
Dallas -- Votes: D+137,496 Margin: D+ 93,365
Fort Bend -- Votes: D+ 60,866 Margin: D+20,439
El Paso -- Votes: D+ 30,823 Margin: D+1,464
Hidalgo -- Votes: D+9,390 Margin: R+ 32,495 (Blue to Red Flip)
Thanks Simon, I've pretty much stopped following the polling averages, stopped consuming most media, and hunkered down to finish my second set of postcards for mailing on Oct 24th.
Which brings me to a question for everyone: What are you doing on election day?
I live in Mexico now and am watching the results.
I'll be passing out Dem sample ballots at voting sites in Fairfax County, Va. I'll keep an eye on the sign-up sheets and fill in unstaffed 2-hour slots as needed at different precincts. I've already done this five times at early voting sites.
Poll watching in Arkansas. It's a bit of a pointless endeavor, but it makes me feel better about things.
My husband and I received our absentee ballots on Oct. 17 and returned them to the county auditor's drop box on Oct. 18. It felt wonderful. I have to stamp the last 100 of my postcards that are to be mailed on Oct. 24. All my postcards for other organizations (including Hopium) have gone out. I have a few more letters to do for Vote Forward. I'm in Christina Bohannan's district in IA and have also been delivering requested yard signs for her.
What I did in 2022, probably: hand out Dem slates at my polling place and take down signs. I don't like sitting in front of the TV, staying busy helps!
After a minor freakout yesterday morning i came back to my senses after reminding myself of this simple fact: the race has only moved significantly once since the summer, and that was when Biden dropped out to endorse VP Harris. Every other event since then, even the debate, wasn’t able to shift the race in any meaningful way. So there is no real reason to think that the state of the race - us winning - will change in the coming 14 days. Or to quote yesterday’s Steady Substack (which i highly recommend):
„ Remember that a race this close — and it has been close for months — will not change significantly over the next two weeks. If you see a poll or anything else that suggests a huge swing in either direction, it is likely bunk.“
https://steady.substack.com/p/advice-for-staying-sane
In my head I've got two meaningful events since Kamala became the nominee. The Mark Robinson fiasco helped us a medium amount in NC, and the debate helped us a very small bit nationwide. The remainder is just noise.
I would add another: a legion of Republican, retired military leaders and key national security people declaring that they’re endorsing Kamala Harris!
There’s no Comey letter to move the needle at the last minute this time around. Things might wobble and wibble a bit here and there, but I don’t see any big change, either.
Trump reached his ceiling years ago, his base remains static. It’s a losing number
That’s why Simon keeps reminding that close elections hinge on turnout.
And Dems have more money and an experienced ground game operation while Trump has outsourced that vital part of a winning campaign to Mr Eratic: Elon musk.
Plus military generals are going public..
Yesterday we watched the town halls with VP Harris and Liz Cheney. Some friends and I were writing postcards for the Michigan State Supreme Court (postcardstovoters.org). Like Olivia Troye here on Hopium last Friday, Liz Cheney emphatically stated a very large number of Republicans are voting for VP Harris and Governor Walz. I was also really moved about some of the questions: A young woman in Oakland County, MI who had survived a school shooting asked very specific questions about gun control. A man who is a teacher in a Catholic school asked about Ukraine. The answers by VP President and Liz Cheney showed how very, very intelligent they are and how deeply they care about our country. And of course they reminded everyone that Retired General Mark Miley has stated "trump is fascist to the core". These small events calm me.
A winning coalition is made of several groups and communities. We as democrats are and should be a big tent party, and for at least this campaign, I welcome sane people ( whom believe in a world with civil disagreement ) with open arms. There are more of us than there are of them! D.M.W.L. Keep calm and campaign on and NEVER let the bastards wear you down!!!
Linda, from here in Michigan, THANK YOU for writing postcards for Kyra and Kim! If Kim wins, our state Supreme Court has a 5-2 liberal judge advantage. This is fantastic.
PS I also believe that Liz Cheney will serve in a Harris administration in some capacity.
No foreign policy, though.
I actually take it back- it would probably be Kinzinger for VA. I wouldn't want a Cheney anywhere near Democratic policymaking.
Thank you Simon!!
Wanted to share my own story from the field...
After seeing Jess Craven/Robert Hubbell's interview w/ Drew Kromer (27 yo party chair!) of the Mecklenburg (NC) Dems, I signed up to volunteer. On Thursday I drove 7+ hours to Charlotte. I met amazing volunteers (mostly women, but also a handful of men.... lots from NC, including people from Asheville; lots from Masschusetts. My canvassing partners came from DC and Baltimore. People are *committed*, y'all!!!) I canvassed one shift Friday, three shifts Saturday, and one more shift Sunday before I had to drive home. In the evenings, my new friend and I spent hours driving around Meck county placing hundreds of signs on the roadsides. We did this Friday and Saturday nights well past midnight, and did another sign mission Sunday morning when it was too early to knock on doors. On Saturday evening we were placing signs at a major intersection (no pedestrians and a TON of cars) and a guy appeared out of nowhere to tell me that when we were done there we needed to head down to a different area 5 miles away that had too many Repub signs. (And he was right. it was a good assignment!) This guy saw us working, pulled over, parked at a gas station, and crossed six lanes of traffic to tell me this!! And while we were standing there chatting with him, another guy-- a young white guy! -- pulled over to ask us if he could still register to vote. (Turns out he was registered in PA so we told him to absentee there). And re: canvassing: A lot of people weren't home -- it was an absolutely gorgeous weekend -- and our lists were heavily D leaning, so this was not a "challenging" assignment in terms of having hard conversations; almost every conversation we had with voters was positive. This was all about GOTV (we left a lot of lit when folks weren't home) and it was all really fun and energizing. I loved talking to voters, getting to meet the amazing staff and volunteers, and seeing the overall great energy in Mecklenburg. And they need more help!! The county has a high percentage of blue voters but historically very low turnout, so the GOTV effort is crucial and they have built a terrific operation there to improve the numbers (and hopefully by a lot!) If anyone wants to canvass and can get there, they will put you to work. They have shifts 7 days a week and they are ORGANIZED! I am going to try to go back for Nov 3-5. (And until then, I'm postcarding and phonebanking!) Thanks everyone for being part of this awesome community!
Love your first hand account. Today I got an email saying my ballot has been counted. Feels great!!!!!!
Thanks Rebecca, inspiring!
Thank you Rebecca! I can’t be there but I will send ( another) donation to NC today in honor and support of your work!!!! Thank you for doing the work some of us would like to help with but can’t. I’m so impressed you would drive 14 hours RT!!🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you for doing this! I came to Mecklenburg County 5 weeks ago (I live in MN) and I agree with all that you said. Canvassing is going great and we are mobilizing voters! But we need as many volunteers as we can get! We are going to drive the turnout here where it needs to be and we are going to win NC!
Godspeed to you, RR! Thank you for loving America and sharing all of this uplifting information!
You're killing it! Getting a vote in PA while canvassing in NC? I love it. I apologize for the lack of male support for your efforts. We're raised and socialized to expect women to do everything for us and election volunteering is no exception.
A couple of interesting polling findings that Simon didn't mention. First, undecideds are breaking 2-1 for Harris (64-36, specifically). Second, support for Trump among whites (or maybe white men) with a college degree has slipped about 10% since 2020. I continue to be bullish and am curious why Simon is calling PA competitive when a credible source in yesterday's thread wrote that it's looking like we'll h hit our firewall and then some pretty soon.
ETA: Come to think of it, I believe I do know why Simon is calling PA competitive. It's because the R's are slightly overperforming the EV relative to 2020 where the three battlegrounds he's highlighting have us overperforming 2020 by a good amount. So: My response is YES, AND: 1) We will have a higher percentage of the election day vote because young people, 2) D and R votes aren't created equal in a world where there is a Republican schism, and 3) this year's EV is older, whiter and more rural than what we saw in 2020, i.e., they're expending a higher percentage of their voting resources in the EV.
Carl need links to all this please.
The first part comes from Emerson College polling here: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-tracking-national-poll-harris-49-trump-48/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Some interesting findings:
1. “Women and male voters break in near opposite directions: men for Trump, 56% to 42%, and women for Harris, 55% to 41%” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Hispanic voters break for Harris, 61% to 35% and Black voters 81% to 12%, while white voters break for Trump 60% to 38%.”
Those seem like good Latino and Black voter margins to me.
2. “Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%,” Kimball said. “The three percent of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48% to 43%.”
Second part comes from Harry Enten here: https://x.com/LaurenHitt/status/1848348304112837012?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
“Trump is seeing losses with his largest base - white non college voters, according to CNN's Harry Enten. "Shrinkage as Donald Trump might say."
Eminem is introducing Obama at a Detroit rally. Any coalition that includes Dick Cheney, Bernie Sanders, AND Eminem can’t lose. Driving the vote in Detroit, a city that Trump just disparaged. :)
That rally in Detroit is after President Obama and Governor Walz are in Madison for a rally beginning about 1:30 central time in a Madison arena that seats 8500. Then Governor Walz goes on to an evening rally in Racine WI! Thursday President Obama and VP Harris are making their first joint appearance in Atlanta with Bruce Springsteen. I always think of several things: 1) How extraordinarily expensive these rallies must be, how stressful this must be for the underpaid and overworked Secret Service teams, and 3) what remarkable energy VP Harris, President Obama, Tim Walz, the others have to keep this up day after day with multiple events in one day.
My 14-YO daughter, who helped me with postcarding, would probably be more excited about this than Taylor Swift's endorsement. :-) She's a huge Eminem fan.
I’m a 74 y/o & I’ve been a fan of Eminem for years, loved the movie about his early life, 8 Mile.
And what a treat to have President Obama rap some Eminem!
While Trump is sh*t talking America, IMF is saying "U.S. Economy Again Leads the World"
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/u-s-economy-again-leads-the-world-imf-says-39578275
Thank you, Simon--especially for Kamala's point of Do not Despair. I also found this commentary to be very noteworthy and inspiring on MSNBC Morning Joe: (Mika) Just one final point about Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney, and seeing them up on stage together talking about Democracy and talking about the dangers of a 2nd Trump administration. I just found it striking as well to see two women of wisdom and experience from two completely different backgrounds and two completely different points of view being the example, holding up the pillars of freedom together. It was really impressive and I hope young women everywhere--and everyone everywhere--takes a look at what they are doing right now, in this moment, where what is needed is strength to stand up and speak out, and not to cower. (Joe agreeing) With real strength, real compassion and a real love of our constitution. To listen at time 8:45 in: https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/-real-conservatives-love-their-country-and-want-it-to-continue-joe-on-cheney-backing-harris-222355013671
We had an opportunity to spend an evening in January 2024 hearing Rep. Cheney present her talk and Q&A as a featured speaker of the Colorado Speaker Series. She is intelligent, engaging, witty, and powerful in her defense of core American values. At that time, she was anti-Trump, but would not commit to voting for Joe Biden. What a fascinating evolution to becoming a key surrogate for Harris/Walz.
Two of the best things I heard in that PA conversation with VP Harris, Liz Cheney, and Sarah Longwell:
1) Liz Cheney said (paraphrasing), I am 100% pro-life. I have been all my life. But when I see what's happening in these state legislatures, and women are not getting the care they need, and being vilified, it's not right. We need to correct that.
I don't agree with her on abortion. I am 100% pro-choice. And everyone could see this coming if RvW were ever overturned. But her having reflection about what has happened and treating these issues as serious and worthy of intelligent discourse is what should be expected of our leaders. Not "Everyone wanted this! The founders wanted it! It's beautiful! It's a state's rights issue!"
2) When VP Harris said (paraphrasing). That's why I'm going to have a Republican in my cabinet. I want good ideas from everywhere. And we should have good discussions and strong debates based on facts...
The audience applauded that line, and then VP Harris said, laughing, "Isn't that something? When that [saying we should have discussions and debates based on facts] is an applause line?"
The audience loved that. She is soooo right. I look forward to the days when we can just beat the hell out of each other in policy debates based on facts and logic, instead of just throwing out fallacy after fallacy, gaslighting, lies, and performative nonsense that is supposed to pass as "informing the public" about our positions.
My bet for the Republican in her cabinet will be Adam Kinzinger as head of the VA. I don’t think Cheney wants an admin post, my (totally unfounded) opinion is Cheney wants to rebuild a better GOP on the ashes of MAGA.
I was thinking Kinzinger, also. VA makes a lot of sense. I agree Cheney wants to work on fixing the GOP before a cabinet spot. Also, I don't think Cheney could hold a cabinet position in a Harris administration. She is extremely conservative-- not a moderate. Cabinets recommend policy, so it would be tough on both of them.
Hey Simon, thank you as always for these updates that are keeping me sane. Happy to answer the call (or more accurately, make the calls) and join the Hopium phone bank tonight. See you there.
I have seen so many interpretations on the WaPo polling. Glad Simon can bring some rationality to this discussion.