Happy Tuesday all. 14 more days of voting. As I like to say - we are winning the election but have not won it yet. Our goal now is to keep working hard and bring that big vote that is still out there for us home in these closing, all-important days.
Last night I joined Tom Bonier on Joy Reid’s MSNBC show to talk about the election, polling and the early vote. You can watch it above. It was our first time together on cable television - hard to believe! Do watch and share. Our segment covers much of the same ground as my big post yesterday:
Non-red wave national and state polling has been remarkably consistent and steady since the debate. The VP leads by 2-3-4 points nationally, and we are closer to 270 than Trump. Her favs/unfavs are far better than Trump’s, which can matter for late-breaking voters. She’s closed the gap on the economy with Trump - a huge achievement.
With our ground and financial advantage, we should be able to reach more voters and close stronger than the Rs in the final two weeks (why we have to keep working it). The organized opposition to Trump from prominent Republican leaders in the home stretch is also going to matter.
The early vote is very encouraging in MI, NE and WI, and competitive everywhere else. All seven (or eight) battleground states remain competitive and we just need to go fight it out and win it on the ground, together.
The Senate remains a brawl, and there is a great deal of optimism about what we are seeing in the House races. The VP is heading to Houston on Friday for a big speech on abortion rights and reproductive freedom, and to support Colin Allred who has made it a race in Texas.
Our candidate isn’t unraveling on camera every day, and ducking challenging interviews and debates. Our candidate isn’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon, the oldest person to be the nominee of an American political party and the most dangerous political leader in all of our history. Our candidate, the Vice President of the United States of America, is strong, winning, optimistic, committed to opportunity and freedom, is for the people and is working unbelievably hard to win this election for all of us.
Here is where the higher-integrity Washington Post battleground state averages falls this morning (again, no fade, no significant movement to Trump)
Yesterday we got the 7 battleground state polls from the Washington Post showing Harris winning the Electoral College by margins consistent with the national polling over the past few weeks. This morning we got two national polls showing Harris with a sturdy lead, and the race unchanged since their last poll:
Harris 47%-44% (+3) Ipsos/Reuters
Harris 50%-46% (+4) Morning Consult
I want to be clear here. The race is not slipping away. Trump is not gaining. From Wednesday to Saturday Rs dropped 10 polls into the national averages, after dropping dozens of polls into the state averages for weeks, and they moved 538 from 2.6 Harris to 1.8 Harris. This tipped many forecasters to Trump, but this movement has not been confirmed by independent polling this week. Yesterday, having tipped the national averages, they returned to PA, the primary red wave target, dropping 3 polls. Look at the difference here. Independent poll - Harris up 2. Red wave polls - Trump up 2.
Here’s a clip from MSNBC talking about the fake red wave polls and Polymarket’s crypto voodoo:
It’s 2022 all over again. Independent polls show Harris ahead 2-3-4 points and winning the electoral college. Red wave polls show Trump winning. Do not fall for their fuckery, peeps. We are winning this election but have not won it yet. We have 14 days now to go win it, together.
VP Harris and Liz Cheney Hit MI, PA, WI - Yesterday was a wonderful day on the campaign. There was so many great clips and moments. You can catch any of the three events they did together on the Harris YouTube Channel. Here is my favorite clip of the day. “Let us not feel powerless….we rise to the moment.”
Doing More And Worrying Less/Working Hard And Closing Strong In The Home Stretch - Here is our phonebank schedule for the next two weeks. Please invite friends and family, and sign up for a shift today. These evenings together have been very fun, and we get a lot of work to done. You have a choice to either call for one of our House candidate or to make calls in the battleground states for Harris-Walz. Each night I will either start or end with a brief overview of the latest from the trail:
Tuesday, Oct 22nd, 7-9pm - Calls For Amish Shah (AZ-01) and Harris-Walz - Register Here. Amish Shah will be joining us live at 710pm or so, and NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton will join us at 850pm ET to close out our night together.
Thursday, Oct 24th, 7-9pm - Calls For Derek Tran (CA-45) and Harris-Walz - Register Here (expect to hear from Derek Tran live)
Tuesday, Oct 29th, 7-9pm - Calls for Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and Harris-Walz - Register Here (hope we will hear from both candidates, still working on it)
I also want to thank all of you who are self-reporting in on all your remarkable work across the country. Postcards, canvassing, back yard phonebank parties - you all are doing the work we need to do to win. Thank you all.
Lori C posted this yesterday on our subscriber chat:
Great news! I voted mail-in 2 weeks ago. My husband traditionally prefers Nov. 5th — I showed him these stats why his early vote is so important. We’re here in FL. Saturday he received a postcard that early polling starts today and is at the library right around the corner. He’s going to vote as soon as he’s off work. Voting has never been easier in my life and hoping the odds are in favor. He’s a . boomer for Harris. We both love her enthusiasm and think she’s great for the future gen’s as well. This community has done so much for keeping our spirits up and sane!!!
Here’s Madam Geoffrin:
Thanks Simon for doing appropriate sane washing.
Anecdotes:
First, from PA: my 24 yo daughter lives in Philly and just received her ballot. She says she’ll drop it at City Hall this week. So could be that some “early voters” are delayed by snail mail.
Second, saw my stepdaughter this morning. Converted her and her husband to early voting (in NJ) and asked her to reach out to her friends in swing districts to do the same. Explained the down stream importance on GOTV efforts. She said she would do so.
Third, a friend asked for phone banking opportunities and I shared Simon’s site. Can she join here if not a subscriber?
Finally my local activist group is all hands on deck for letter writing- I am donating my roll of 100 postcard stamps.
People are scared but not hiding under rocks.
Let’s go.
Yes, everyone is welcome to the phonebanks!
Here’s Michelle J:
In the last 2 days I canvassed in NV (got a friend to come with me and canvass for the first time), helped with logistics for a multi-swing state phone bank with 600+ volunteers, texted voters, wrote postcards for Will Rollins, and just donated to the NC Dems again. All gas, no brakes!!
So proud to be in this fight with all of you!
My one big ask today is to give to our 15 House candidates. We are getting very close to our audacious goal of $2m raised (the $1,750,000 plus money given directly to the candidates). Vibes are good in the House my friends. Honor Amish Shah who is joining us tonight and his intrepid colleagues by making a donation today to our flippable 15!
Let’s get to it!
Harris-Walz For President - $1,289,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel and watch her inspiring rallies live
Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:
North Carolina - $902,000 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $538,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego.
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $304,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb
Wisconsin Dem Party - $76,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch Our Recent Closing Strong Interview with the great Ben Wikler
Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House this year. We need to keep working it peeps!
Support All 15 Hopium-Backed Candidates With A Single Donation - $1,676,000 raised, $1,750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates (for our higher net worth donors note that you can give up to $49,500 split 15 ways for this group). You can donate to any one of our 15 candidates directly here.
Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $538,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Montana/Jon Tester - $154,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $106,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Wisconsin Dem Party/Tammy Baldwin - $76,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $304,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Growing The Hopium Community - We’ve set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:
Hopium Subscribers - 111,500 this morning, 125,000 goal
Paid Subscribers - 12,978 this morning, 14,000 goal
This new effort is off a great start everyone - thank you! Keep working it. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below or following this link. The subscription tab includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day!
Keep working hard all. It is how we win! - Simon
VP Harris Leads By 3 and 4 In New Polls, Hitting The Battleground With Liz Cheney, Phonebank With Hopium, Anderson Clayton Tonight!