i got a text from 'Steve Kornacki' fanning flames. I prefer that a news reporter not be used as a campaign vehicle, esp. when the info is inaccurate. (Kamala crashing?) Confusing.
All we can know is the battleground states are close. One or two polls, respectfully, tell us nothing. We have the inspiring candidates, the enthusiasm, the money, and a real ground game. Let’s just do the work and win this.
Clark County mail ballots have cut the GOP lead a bit this morning. It depends on what we see today and tomorrow, but I think the GOP is just eating into their election day totals more than we are.
I agree. Trump is doing nothing to get voters outside of his base. Kamala Harris is going after every possible vote out there, and has the message, money, and ground game to do it.
On the other hand, USA Today has her leading 60-40 among voters planning to vote early. It's a mixed bag, uneven across the states. But in PA at least, it seems like Dems want to wait (they have no in-person early voting, only VBM).
Nevada : they have a ton of IND voters, particularly new voters and in Clark County. Those are going to skew DEM. Ralston has always been able to analyze Nevada because of the partisan breakdowns, but now that so many are IND its going to make his job tougher, which he said from the jump. I would just ignore him for a while, tbh.
Newsweek = trash. All of their articles appear to be written by people who have no idea what they are doing, and the polls they share are meaningless. Good catch on that!
Someone posted the data from a poll that showed Harris leading 62-34 among Latino voters. I've shared it here. Even though he has gained some ground, I don't believe for a second that he would have a lead with Latino voters. Why does the media suck so much?
Net fav. Harris: +33
Net fav. Trump: -23
Presidential Election: Harris +28 (62-34)
Also, 60% of respondents say that they are more interested in the election since Harris replaced Biden. I think this should silence all the pundits saying that „Harris struggles with latin voters“. Here is the link for anyone interested in more details:
Hello Deb, I don't know of any state that requires you to change your party affiliation based on whom you want to vote for in a general election. Normally, party affiliation only matters in primaries, meaning you have to be registered with a party in order to vote in that party's primary. Once the election shifts to general, it's a free for all, and anyone can vote for any candidate regardless of party affiliation without any change to party registration required.
In GA every race, constitutional amendment, etc is on 1 ballot-- there is no DEM or REP ballot from which to choose for the general election. Not sure how it works in other states.
In a general election, there's a single ballot for candidates and in most (all?), any state constitutional or local referendum questions will be on the same ballot. A few places may separate primaries onto different ballots, but the places I've voted cram all THAT on to one, too.
That is very powerful. Extremely vexing that the VA did not initially recognize Burn Pit victims, just like they told my husband that there is no such thing as mesothelioma.
QUESTION: What assumptions about gender gap have the serious pollsters built into their Likely Voter models? I would be very interested if anyone has comparative data on this. Surprisingly, I have not seen this discussed much when pollster models are debated.
In swing state after swing state, women account for 9–10% more of the Early Vote than men do. That is dramatic and it is telling!
If the pollsters fail to account for a sufficiently-large gender gap, they are going to seriously miss the target. I wonder if this explains why pollsters got their predictions on the Abortion Referendums so woefully wrong; explains why they got the Midterm Elections wrong, predicting a Red Wave that never materialized; explains why they have consistently underestimated Democratic strength in Special Elections since the Dobbs decision; AND explains why Trump consistently underperformed in almost every single Republican primary this year.
Could it be that we’ll see a Pink Tsunami and thus a Blue Wave that the pollsters and pundits failed to predict?
No doubt. Plus friends keep reminding me that the young males for djt won't be getting out to vote, so his gender gap favoring males is rather meaningless.
Yes, no doubt women are registering in huge numbers and voting for Harris in a way that will lead us all to victory. Women are pissed off about having their constitutional rights revoked by djt. For the other guy, young males skew the data in his favor, but they are not likely to "get off the couch" and vote. The additive effect is even more support for Kamala!! P.S. Thanks for all the stats!
The “Gender Gap” Story So Far is Harris’s Resilience with Men
Plus, why Trump is avoiding mainstream media, why Democrats should give the Green Party nominee the silent treatment, and the Week 7 Gender Gap Tracker — all in the October 17, 2024 newsletter.
It basically says that if the gender gap stays the same as 2020 Harris will have a good year. And if female turnout is higher than 2020 (which we all expect i guess) thus widening the gap, Harris could have a really good election.
Not only that, but the hidden Republican women’s vote that Liz Cheney is enrolling could be significant so Dem vs. GOP models and assumptions could be quite falsely predictive.
Seems like there is a pretty gigantic gender gap among pollsters and election twitter accounts (from when I was still on twitter). Not all men, obviously, but it feels as though many of the narrative-framers just select-all delete the deeply personal impact of Dobbs on women, and all the electoral evidence of it thus far in actual elections. When discussing the gender gap, the interest and fascination seems to be with young men. Among my small group of longtime girl friends, TWO have had wanted pregnancies that failed and required care that would have been denied them in red states. This is highly motivating and real.
Yeah - I quit Twitter after Elon bought it but trying to tell the make polling geeks of Election Twitter that they were missing how pissed off women were was a constant battle. They just didn’t get it (I think most had very little contact with actual women) and it doesn’t surprise me that they still don’t.
Don't forget the Dobbs Dads. R fathers who have daughters and don't want to see their daughter's healthcare decisions made by the government. This group will positively affect the males voting for Harris.
P.S. This comes from the Lincoln Project and is part of wha they refer to as the Bannon Line. The Bannon Line refers to Rs who vote for Ds as a percentage. Which they project could in the range of 6 to 14%.
The Red Dawn guys too, who grew up thinking the USSR was the focus of evil in the modern world....they do not like Putin, a former KGB guy, and don't like people who do....
Absolutely I don’t predict a blue wave as much as a pink wave. Long live all the great women in our lives. And for always looking out for us and having our backs.
My wife and I just voted in Bagdad By the Sea, and a Hispanic stranger in line told me it was the first time she had ever voted for Democrats. Extrapolating from that......
My husband and I just voted in MAGA-vile,Fl. We stood in line for about an hour.The couple behind us were retired military and the wife asked where I had gotten my Vote Kamala bracelet. Extrapolating from that….there are many military veterans who will be voting for Kamala, including those in my family !
All in all, at least 1,425,054 people have voted in Georgia. That is 19.8 percent of active registered voters. And it is already 28.5 percent of the number of Georgians who voted in 2020!
ArcticStones -- Thanks for what you're doing regarding reporting early voting numbers in Georgia, as well as other states. I'm extremely interested in how soon an estimation can be made as to how well Democrats are faring here, so as soon as you run across any information giving a best-guess, realistic analysis of is going on, I would appreciate it. (I canceled my subscription to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution months ago to free up funds for political contributions, so I'm pay-walled out of their local reporting.)
Interpreting Early Voting is an art/science fraught with many risks. I’ll leave that to the experts such as Tom and Simon. Will let you know if I come across others, but here are a few recommendations:
For Nevada, I can strongly recommend Jon Ralston, Editor of the Nevada Independent, and his superb Early Voting Blog.
A total of 1,030,957 people cast Early In-Person Votes, making North Carolina the 6th state to surpass one million votes. So far, 92,088 Mail Ballots have been returned of 390,184 requested.
In-Person Early Votes: 938,869
All in all, about 13% of NC registered voters have voted.
Party split: 35.3% Democrats, 33.2% Republicans, 31.5% Independents
Found another very good and detailed poll yesterday that questioned 1.900 latin voters in all important battleground states, conducted by the hispanic federation (which probably knows best when it comes to the latin vote). The bottom line numbers are:
Net fav. Harris: +33
Net fav. Trump: -23
Presidential Election: Harris +28 (62-34)
Also, 60% of respondents say that they are more interested in the election since Harris replaced Biden. I think this should silence all the pundits saying that „Harris struggles with latin voters“. Here is the link for anyone interested in more details:
Oh my gosh - THANK YOU for this! It was so heartening to read and confirm my belief in Kamala winning! I wish all groups would do something like this. According to the regular media, it says Hispanics do not know or trust her.
I don't read NY Times or WaPo any longer. I get the truth here on my Substack subscriptions:
Simon, Robert Hubbell (an attorney) on Today's Edition, Joyce Vance (former federal prosecutor) on Civil Discourse, Jay Kuo (a recovering attorney) on The Daily Kuo and The Big Picture, Adam Kinzinger, Dan Pfeiffer on The Message Box and the free Substack from Swifties for Kamala, Paint the Town Blue!
Ditto. Cancelled both subscriptions. Too much old media is part of the problem vs. public informants and educators. Even with TFG’s horrendous and ugly character pushing the envelope on fascism, it has been profoundly disappointing.
Robert Hubbell & Hopium are my two favs. Hubbell is very good about putting this in perspective. I like how he pushes back against some of the more apocalyptic rhetoric - particularly about the stakes of the election. Don't get me wrong, the stakes are higher than they e been in my lifetime, but Hubbell is very good about weaving grounded optimism with a reasonable reminder that life ( and the fight ) HAS TO go on regardless.
Yes, and I broke up with Poltiical Wire for the same reason. Good people, good aspirations, but way too much bedwetting for my mental health. And way to prone to buying the bogus consensus reality.
I'm keeping 2022 in my mind as I move forward. The polls said we were going to get crushed. My candidate was running even with her opponent in a solid D district. It made it very hard for me to canvass with a smile on my face, but I kept at it.
And then we famously didn't get crushed. We woke up the next day in a much brighter spot. It's always scary when the narrative is against you, but you never stop working.
"Destiny is not a matter of chance, it is a matter of choice; it is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved." — William Jennings Bryan
“This is our moment to choose the future we believe in. It’s time to seize the opportunity, take action, and create the change we know is possible.” LFG my Hopium peeps!
i got a text from 'Steve Kornacki' fanning flames. I prefer that a news reporter not be used as a campaign vehicle, esp. when the info is inaccurate. (Kamala crashing?) Confusing.
All we can know is the battleground states are close. One or two polls, respectfully, tell us nothing. We have the inspiring candidates, the enthusiasm, the money, and a real ground game. Let’s just do the work and win this.
Clark County mail ballots have cut the GOP lead a bit this morning. It depends on what we see today and tomorrow, but I think the GOP is just eating into their election day totals more than we are.
I agree. Trump is doing nothing to get voters outside of his base. Kamala Harris is going after every possible vote out there, and has the message, money, and ground game to do it.
People have been saying that Democrats seem to be more inclined to vote on Election Day ( at least in certain places ) this cycle
On the other hand, USA Today has her leading 60-40 among voters planning to vote early. It's a mixed bag, uneven across the states. But in PA at least, it seems like Dems want to wait (they have no in-person early voting, only VBM).
Nevada : they have a ton of IND voters, particularly new voters and in Clark County. Those are going to skew DEM. Ralston has always been able to analyze Nevada because of the partisan breakdowns, but now that so many are IND its going to make his job tougher, which he said from the jump. I would just ignore him for a while, tbh.
Newsweek = trash. All of their articles appear to be written by people who have no idea what they are doing, and the polls they share are meaningless. Good catch on that!
Someone posted the data from a poll that showed Harris leading 62-34 among Latino voters. I've shared it here. Even though he has gained some ground, I don't believe for a second that he would have a lead with Latino voters. Why does the media suck so much?
Net fav. Harris: +33
Net fav. Trump: -23
Presidential Election: Harris +28 (62-34)
Also, 60% of respondents say that they are more interested in the election since Harris replaced Biden. I think this should silence all the pundits saying that „Harris struggles with latin voters“. Here is the link for anyone interested in more details:
https://www.hispanicfederation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Hispanic-Federation-BG-Latino-Survey-Results-by-States-10.15.pdf
Hello Deb, I don't know of any state that requires you to change your party affiliation based on whom you want to vote for in a general election. Normally, party affiliation only matters in primaries, meaning you have to be registered with a party in order to vote in that party's primary. Once the election shifts to general, it's a free for all, and anyone can vote for any candidate regardless of party affiliation without any change to party registration required.
Absolutely ANYBODY (registered voters) can vote for Kamala/Tim!
Party affiliation only pertains to primaries in most states.
Get your early ballot and VOTE now, or make a firm plan on how you will vote on Election Day.
In GA every race, constitutional amendment, etc is on 1 ballot-- there is no DEM or REP ballot from which to choose for the general election. Not sure how it works in other states.
In a general election, there's a single ballot for candidates and in most (all?), any state constitutional or local referendum questions will be on the same ballot. A few places may separate primaries onto different ballots, but the places I've voted cram all THAT on to one, too.
That is very powerful. Extremely vexing that the VA did not initially recognize Burn Pit victims, just like they told my husband that there is no such thing as mesothelioma.
I saw this poll on Morning Joe this am and while we know not to rely much on the polls, this was encouraging.
I think you may have forgotten to include the link?
I think she was responding to the same poll that Simon posted. I saw it on Morning Joe as well.
QUESTION: What assumptions about gender gap have the serious pollsters built into their Likely Voter models? I would be very interested if anyone has comparative data on this. Surprisingly, I have not seen this discussed much when pollster models are debated.
In swing state after swing state, women account for 9–10% more of the Early Vote than men do. That is dramatic and it is telling!
If the pollsters fail to account for a sufficiently-large gender gap, they are going to seriously miss the target. I wonder if this explains why pollsters got their predictions on the Abortion Referendums so woefully wrong; explains why they got the Midterm Elections wrong, predicting a Red Wave that never materialized; explains why they have consistently underestimated Democratic strength in Special Elections since the Dobbs decision; AND explains why Trump consistently underperformed in almost every single Republican primary this year.
Could it be that we’ll see a Pink Tsunami and thus a Blue Wave that the pollsters and pundits failed to predict?
No doubt. Plus friends keep reminding me that the young males for djt won't be getting out to vote, so his gender gap favoring males is rather meaningless.
The gender gap heavily favors women. When all the votes are counted after Election Day, I rather expect this gender gap to be historically large.
Yes, no doubt women are registering in huge numbers and voting for Harris in a way that will lead us all to victory. Women are pissed off about having their constitutional rights revoked by djt. For the other guy, young males skew the data in his favor, but they are not likely to "get off the couch" and vote. The additive effect is even more support for Kamala!! P.S. Thanks for all the stats!
From The Washington Monthly:
The “Gender Gap” Story So Far is Harris’s Resilience with Men
Plus, why Trump is avoiding mainstream media, why Democrats should give the Green Party nominee the silent treatment, and the Week 7 Gender Gap Tracker — all in the October 17, 2024 newsletter.
by Bill Scher
October 17, 2024
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/10/17/the-gender-gap-story-so-far-is-harriss-resilience-with-men/
I'm a fan of Bill Scher.
I always give the Green Party the silent treatment. :)
Which is why djt. Told women to get their husbands out. If only he wishes.
I agree wholeheartedly! No other turnout makes the most sense. Women are not impressed with being relegated to 2nd class citizens!!
And there are plenty of women old enough to remember the bad old days before Roe.
Perhaps that explains high turnout in that demographic.
I'm one of them and we're not going back.
Here is a very good analysis of the importance of the gender gap in this year’s election: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-gender-gaps-could-tip-the-presidential-race-in-2024/
It basically says that if the gender gap stays the same as 2020 Harris will have a good year. And if female turnout is higher than 2020 (which we all expect i guess) thus widening the gap, Harris could have a really good election.
Thanks! That’s really terrific! I shared it with grateful people on The Downballot.
My sentiment all along
Not only that, but the hidden Republican women’s vote that Liz Cheney is enrolling could be significant so Dem vs. GOP models and assumptions could be quite falsely predictive.
I have women in my family who would never vote for a D. But this year completely different. Once Kamala was our nominee.
Good to hear Paul!
Seems like there is a pretty gigantic gender gap among pollsters and election twitter accounts (from when I was still on twitter). Not all men, obviously, but it feels as though many of the narrative-framers just select-all delete the deeply personal impact of Dobbs on women, and all the electoral evidence of it thus far in actual elections. When discussing the gender gap, the interest and fascination seems to be with young men. Among my small group of longtime girl friends, TWO have had wanted pregnancies that failed and required care that would have been denied them in red states. This is highly motivating and real.
Yeah - I quit Twitter after Elon bought it but trying to tell the make polling geeks of Election Twitter that they were missing how pissed off women were was a constant battle. They just didn’t get it (I think most had very little contact with actual women) and it doesn’t surprise me that they still don’t.
Hell hath no fury than a woman who has her reproductive freedom taken away!
Don't forget the Dobbs Dads. R fathers who have daughters and don't want to see their daughter's healthcare decisions made by the government. This group will positively affect the males voting for Harris.
P.S. This comes from the Lincoln Project and is part of wha they refer to as the Bannon Line. The Bannon Line refers to Rs who vote for Ds as a percentage. Which they project could in the range of 6 to 14%.
I believe that the range you cite (8-14%) is correct.
The Red Dawn guys too, who grew up thinking the USSR was the focus of evil in the modern world....they do not like Putin, a former KGB guy, and don't like people who do....
🙏🙏
Absolutely I don’t predict a blue wave as much as a pink wave. Long live all the great women in our lives. And for always looking out for us and having our backs.
FLORIDA EARLY VOTE
NB. Early in-person voting begins today in most Florida counties.
Mail Ballot Count when polls opened:
@FlaDems +65,532 over @FloridaGOP
- Democrat: 485,665 (42.53%)
- Republican: 420,133 (36.79%)
- Other: 236,103 20.68%)
TOTAL: 1,141,901
https://nitter.poast.org/meyer0656/status/1848300194615439599#m
My wife and I just voted in Bagdad By the Sea, and a Hispanic stranger in line told me it was the first time she had ever voted for Democrats. Extrapolating from that......
Voting is heavy.....besides abortion, marijuana, we also have reptile hunting on the ballot...https://www.tiktok.com/@debbieforflorida/video/7426243292779597099
By Wednesday we should know what the registration increases have been.....
I still think we can get a trifecta.
Absolutely true!
“Reptile hunting” 🤣 💙 Debbie’s ad !! 🐍
My husband and I just voted in MAGA-vile,Fl. We stood in line for about an hour.The couple behind us were retired military and the wife asked where I had gotten my Vote Kamala bracelet. Extrapolating from that….there are many military veterans who will be voting for Kamala, including those in my family !
Still time to say "not suckers or losers on social media comments. Can flip millions.
Some states haven’t begun early vote yet. I’m very excited for FL turn out so far.
GEORGIA EARLY VOTE
All in all, at least 1,425,054 people have voted in Georgia. That is 19.8 percent of active registered voters. And it is already 28.5 percent of the number of Georgians who voted in 2020!
Mail Ballots (Absentee):
– 80,060 accepted (of 80,670 returned)
– 295,719 requested
In-Person Votes
– Tuesday: 313,386
– Wednesday: 279,134
– Thursday: 259,128
– Friday: 287,565
– Saturday: 163,733
– Sunday: 42,486
Total In-Person: 1,345,432
Update 12:30pm: Another 100,901 Georgians have voted in person today.
Update 1:30pm: 120,219 Georgians have voted in person today.
Update 2:30pm: 157,077 Georgians have voted in person today.
Update 4:30pm: 209,734 Georgians have voted in person today.
Update 5:30pm: 230,702 Georgians have voted in person today.
Update 6:30pm: 240,169 Georgians have voted in person today.
Including ME. I was out of town all last week, so planned to vote early this morning. And did. 😁
ArcticStones -- Thanks for what you're doing regarding reporting early voting numbers in Georgia, as well as other states. I'm extremely interested in how soon an estimation can be made as to how well Democrats are faring here, so as soon as you run across any information giving a best-guess, realistic analysis of is going on, I would appreciate it. (I canceled my subscription to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution months ago to free up funds for political contributions, so I'm pay-walled out of their local reporting.)
Interpreting Early Voting is an art/science fraught with many risks. I’ll leave that to the experts such as Tom and Simon. Will let you know if I come across others, but here are a few recommendations:
For Nevada, I can strongly recommend Jon Ralston, Editor of the Nevada Independent, and his superb Early Voting Blog.
https://nitter.poast.org/RalstonReports/
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
For Pennsylvania, Joshua Smithley is excellent:
https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq
For North Carolina, I have been recommended Dr Michael Bizer:
https://nitter.poast.org/BowTiePolitics
Georgia has far and away the best official state election data I’ve seen!
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
Ralston is saying he might not be able to do his usual predictions because of changes in NV voter rules/registrations. Beyond that I cannot say.
Interesting. For many years, Ralston has been the most reliable analyst on the prelude to Nevada elections. There is none better.
NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTE
A total of 1,030,957 people cast Early In-Person Votes, making North Carolina the 6th state to surpass one million votes. So far, 92,088 Mail Ballots have been returned of 390,184 requested.
In-Person Early Votes: 938,869
All in all, about 13% of NC registered voters have voted.
Party split: 35.3% Democrats, 33.2% Republicans, 31.5% Independents
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/
Found another very good and detailed poll yesterday that questioned 1.900 latin voters in all important battleground states, conducted by the hispanic federation (which probably knows best when it comes to the latin vote). The bottom line numbers are:
Net fav. Harris: +33
Net fav. Trump: -23
Presidential Election: Harris +28 (62-34)
Also, 60% of respondents say that they are more interested in the election since Harris replaced Biden. I think this should silence all the pundits saying that „Harris struggles with latin voters“. Here is the link for anyone interested in more details:
https://www.hispanicfederation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Hispanic-Federation-BG-Latino-Survey-Results-by-States-10.15.pdf
Oh my gosh - THANK YOU for this! It was so heartening to read and confirm my belief in Kamala winning! I wish all groups would do something like this. According to the regular media, it says Hispanics do not know or trust her.
Nothing silences pundits. Nothing.
Lysistrata might disagree.
So true!
Thank you, the drumbeat of bad news in the papers is killing me. Too late for them, I already voted.
I don't read NY Times or WaPo any longer. I get the truth here on my Substack subscriptions:
Simon, Robert Hubbell (an attorney) on Today's Edition, Joyce Vance (former federal prosecutor) on Civil Discourse, Jay Kuo (a recovering attorney) on The Daily Kuo and The Big Picture, Adam Kinzinger, Dan Pfeiffer on The Message Box and the free Substack from Swifties for Kamala, Paint the Town Blue!
Ditto. Cancelled both subscriptions. Too much old media is part of the problem vs. public informants and educators. Even with TFG’s horrendous and ugly character pushing the envelope on fascism, it has been profoundly disappointing.
Linda from Evanston—Heather Cox Richardson’s newsletter is outstanding!
Robert Hubbell & Hopium are my two favs. Hubbell is very good about putting this in perspective. I like how he pushes back against some of the more apocalyptic rhetoric - particularly about the stakes of the election. Don't get me wrong, the stakes are higher than they e been in my lifetime, but Hubbell is very good about weaving grounded optimism with a reasonable reminder that life ( and the fight ) HAS TO go on regardless.
Yes, and I broke up with Poltiical Wire for the same reason. Good people, good aspirations, but way too much bedwetting for my mental health. And way to prone to buying the bogus consensus reality.
I'd recommend Michael Podhorzer and Daniel Drezhner too, also Timotyh Snyder and Heather Cox Richardson. There's a lot of good reading out there.
I'm keeping 2022 in my mind as I move forward. The polls said we were going to get crushed. My candidate was running even with her opponent in a solid D district. It made it very hard for me to canvass with a smile on my face, but I kept at it.
And then we famously didn't get crushed. We woke up the next day in a much brighter spot. It's always scary when the narrative is against you, but you never stop working.
Here's Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney at town hall exchange with undecided voters. It is just wraping up now. https://www.facebook.com/KamalaHarris/videos/1081756576169212
That town hall was really good. I watched it from the Harris-Walz website. It was an excellent format. It calmed me.
Yes Indeed! An informative event.
"Destiny is not a matter of chance, it is a matter of choice; it is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved." — William Jennings Bryan
“This is our moment to choose the future we believe in. It’s time to seize the opportunity, take action, and create the change we know is possible.” LFG my Hopium peeps!