New WaPo Polls Show Harris Leading In The Battlegrounds, I Would Much Be Us Than Them, Trump Is Unfit, Unwell and Unraveling

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Happy Monday all. Simply, folks need to take a deep breath. We are in a close and competitive election that is far more likely to break for us than them. The election is close today, and will be close on Election Day. As I wrote to you on Saturday and as I wrote in a long Twitter thread this morning, I do not believe the polls are moving towards Trump. As I wrote on Wednesday last week recent independent, non-red waved polls were actually good for us and had been very steady and stable since the debate in early September. As of last Wednesday 538’s national poll average was actually higher than for Harris than it been a week earlier. There were no signs of slippage or erosion, except in a few states where Rs have been working the polling averages very hard. Here is today’s Washington Post battleground state poll average, an average which tries hard to screen out bad and R leaning polls. It shows Harris ahead, leading.

Then, last Wednesday, the Rs turned a switch on and dumped a lot of polls into the national polling averages. We saw polls form Emerson, Fox News, Quantas, RMG, and the right-wing firm TIPP's launched a daily tracker, adding 4 more polls. Senate Republicans even joined the party, dropping a favorable national poll, as did ActiVote and Atlas whatever the f—k they are. 538 moved from 2.6 Harris on Wednesday to 1.8 Harris this morning, and many polling averages and forecasters tipped to Trump over the weekend.

This movement, and the tipping to Trump, are, in my view, manufactured and should not be treated as authentic movement in the race. Welcome to red wave 2024.

The red wave 2024 campaign is far bigger this time, and has started far earlier. Here’s what we know:

• They’ve released 70+ polls into the averages, with 31 r-aligned groups having released polls since August. These polls are consistently 1-5 points more Republican than the independent polls, as was the case in 2022

• A majority of recent polls in NC and PA are right-aligned. A majority

• While their focus has been on the states, last week they really leaned into the national polling average and moved it and other forecasts this weekend

• There are new actors this year - offshore crypto company Polymarket, Elon and X, and a slew of very aggressive right-wing amplifiers and influencers

• The launching of a new daily national tracking poll by TIPP, a far right institution, is an escalation that will be putting downward pressure on the national average every day until the election

The emergence of TIPP as the pointy edge of the red wave spear is notable given how outrageously right wing it is. It’s corporate slogan is “talent loaned from God” - Rush Limbaugh’s catchphrase. It offers a steady stream of commentary that would be at home at Fox News or the RNC site. Some recent examples:

• Harris’s Fiery Campaign of Rage Exposes Her Unpresidential Temperament

• The Left Is Still Obsessed With 2020 Election Deniers

• U.S. Government Pushing Climate Lies On Schoolchildren

• Night And Day: Trump’s Command Of Economy Exposes Harris’s Novice Approach

Yes, it’s all very ugly and illiberal. It’s outrageous Democrats are being asked to accept the legiticacy of polling averages that have been flooded with dozens and dozens of right-aligned polls. It is why we have to go slow here, understand the game, and be smart my friends. In 2022 I worked to seprate the red wave polls from the legit polls, have been doing so again here, and will keep doing it through Election Day.

But the most important thing you need to know about red wave 2024 is that they would only be going to these extraordinary lengths to shape the election narrative if they believed we are winning and they are losing.

This morning the Washington Post released a series of high-quality battleground state polls with data very similar to where the non-red wave polls had the race early last week - Harris leading, more likely to win. We are winning, and they are losing:

These new WaPo polls are a huge narrative buster for the “Trump is gaining” crowd.

Now to the early vote. I have been hesitant to discuss the early vote for I felt I needed to see more of it to understand what was happening this year. As elections do 2024 is not going to be like 2020 or 2022. It is going to be 2024, and the early vote is not behaving anything like these two previous elections. In attempting to analyze the early vote this time we are also handicapped by having our baseline for comparison 2020, the COVID election, which was anomalous in so many ways.

Tom Bonier and I discussed the early vote in detail in our talk here at Hopium late last week. Watch if you haven’t yet. Tom also wrote a Twitter thread this morning with his latest thoughts for those who are interested in diving in deeper. So let me now offer some thoughts on what we are seeing, and as always, my data comes from Tom’s site, TargetEarly, the most comprehensive tool we have to analyze the early vote.

The bottom line - we should expect Republicans to perform better than 2020 in the early vote this year. First, they are trying much harder to drive the early vote this time, learning from having been burned by their poor performances in 2020 and 2022. And as Tom Bonier details in his thread, we also know from polling that while more Rs are planning on voting early this time, more Ds are planning on returning back to voting on Election Day. So, again, we should expect the early vote to be more Republican this time. In keeping with that today the national early vote is older, whiter, more male and more rural than this time in 2020.

What this means my friends is we have a lot of vote still out there and need to go work it hard to bring it home in these last two weeks.

Second, some of our core vote, young Democrats who are running 2 to 1 for Harris, are going to show up this time as unaffiliated. As we did not have a Presidential primary to encourage younger voters to register as Dems, some of our vote will be hiding in the unaffiliated column this time. How much? We don’t know, just as don’t know how many of the modeled Republicans are going to follow Liz Cheney’s lead and vote Democratic. It is likely that there is a few percentage points of Dem vote hiding in both the R and unaffiliated columns this time.

Third, there are vast differences in how states conduct their early vote and when ballots are processed, and some states have changed their voting systems since 2020.

So what this means is that analyzing the early vote is going to be very challenging this time, and folks need to take it slow. It also means that current feverish right wing hot takes that they are outperforming the early vote and thus are winning are, of course, red wavy and ridiculous. Democrats who have fallen for these early right wing memes need to reflect on why they would ever believe anything coming from right wing commentators, and why they would, even worse, share them with others in their networks, or here with the Hopium community.

This morning Rs are running about 4 points above 2020 in the national early vote according to TargetEarly. Seems reasonable given what I write above. Let’s see how the battlegrounds compare to that. Current margin, compared to 2020, and friends any place where we are running above 2020 is very good, really encouraging:

• Michigan - 15 points over 2020 (this is very good)

• Nebraska-02 - 7 points over 2020 (this is very good)

• Wisconsin - is running ahead of 2020 but how much is not clear due to limitations in the information Wisconsin releases. But we are running ahead, and that it is good.

• The rest of the states - AZ, GA, NC, NV, PA - I would put into what I call the competitive category, meaning we need to fight it out and win there. It’s still really early in some of these states. Both AZ and NC had delays in mailing some ballots so need to give both states a bit more time before we know where things stand.

The big problem for Rs today is not just the WaPo battleground polling but a new USA Today poll out this morning. Even though the early vote electorate is more Republican than 2020 at this time, and is older/whiter/more male/more rural, this new poll finds the Vice President winning those who have voted early 63% to 34% (+29). That margin, 29 points, was considered by a Republican analyst to be too big for Republicans to catch up on Election Day. Yes there could be Dems hiding in the Republican and unaffiliated columns right now, meaning that we are - and will - overperform the raw party or modeled party vote counts that are driving our current understanding of the early vote.

So, Simon what does all this mean, please? First, I know this can be a bit confusing and overwhelming. The Republican red wave fuckery and the complicity of the media and prominent commentators in this fuckery is deeply disappointing, anger-inducing even. It’s why I try to lay out for you, simply, in each post and video, where I think things stand, everyday.

The simple answer is the election is close, and will be close until Election Day, and thus sweating all this data is to some degree a waste of time. We have two weeks left and just need to go leave it all out there on the playing field.

Having said that, I still think we are where I have believed we have been for weeks now - favored to win. We have a steady, sturdy lead in the national popular vote and are closer to 270 in the battlegrounds. While it is still early in the early vote, we are showing real strength in MI, NE and WI, and are competitive everywhere else. Our candidate is far better liked, and likeable. We will close stronger than them in these final two weeks, reaching more voters with our ads and far superior ground operation. Our candidate is closing with joy, power, raucous crowds and a party rallying around her while their candidate keeps melting down and unraveling, and faces unprecedented and meaningful defections from his coalition. We are on offense, trying to peel away more of their voters in the battlegrounds. Trump is talking about the size of a dead man’s junk and men showering naked together.

To be clear - I do not believe the election is moving to Trump, nor are they outperforming us in the early vote. While these things could happen, I do not believe either is actually happening today. I believe we are winning but have not won it yet, and we just need to put our heads down and go win this thing, together, in these last two weeks. It is up to us peeps. Let’s get to work.

Doing More And Worrying Less/Working Hard And Closing Strong In The Home Stretch - Here is the phonebank schedule for the next two weeks. Please sign up for a shift today. These evenings together have been very fun, and we get a lot of work to done. You have a choice to either call for one of our House candidate or to make calls in the battleground states for Harris-Walz.

• Tuesday, Oct 22nd, 7-9pm - Calls For Amish Shah (AZ-01) and Harris-Walz - Register Here (expect to hear from Amish Shah live)

• Thursday, Oct 24th, 7-9pm - Calls For Derek Tran (CA-45) and Harris-Walz - Register Here (expect to hear from Derek Tran live)

• Tuesday, Oct 29th, 7-9pm - Calls for Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and Harris-Walz - Register Here (hope we will hear from both candidates, still working on it)

My one big ask today is two big asks - donate to Anderson Clayton and the North Carolina Democratic Party and/or to Ruben Gallego and the Arizona Democrats. If that new Washington Post poll is right, and I think it is, we need to create a second pathway to 270 for Harris in addition to MI/PA/WI/NE-02. That is why we are working AZ and NC so hard in the home stretch - we need to create that second pathway.

Let’s get to it!

Harris-Walz For President - $1,269,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel and watch her inspiring rallies live

Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:

• North Carolina - $850,000 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $522,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego.

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $300,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

• Wisconsin Dem Party - $70,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch Our Recent Closing Strong Interview with the great Ben Wikler

Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House this year. We need to keep working it peeps!

• Support All 15 Hopium-Backed Candidates With A Single Donation - $1,653,000 raised, $1,750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates (for our higher net worth donors note that you can give up to $49,500 split 15 ways for this group). You can donate to any one of our 15 candidates directly here.

Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $522,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Montana/Jon Tester - $150,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $104,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Wisconsin Dem Party/Tammy Baldwin - $70,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $300,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

Growing The Hopium Community - We’ve set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:

• Hopium Subscribers - 110,063 this morning, 125,000 goal

• Paid Subscribers - 12,860 this morning, 14,000 goal

This new effort is off a great start everyone - thank you! Keep working it. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below or following this link. The subscription tab includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day!

Keep working hard all. It is how we win! - Simon