Working Hard and Closing Strong - My New 2024 Election Video w/Tom Bonier and Ruben Gallego And More.....

Postcard, Call For Tony Vargas (NE-02) Tonight at 715pm ET - Join Us!

Washington State

Happy Thursday all! Sending along the video of our paid subscriber get together last night, above. I kick it off with a 15 minute overview of where I think the election is. We then hear from data guru and Hopium ally Tom Bonier who gives us an update on encouraging voter reg and early vote numbers. Then Ruben Gallego joins us from battleground Arizona. As you will hear Ruben is upbeat about what is happening in Arizona right now and thinks he and VP Harris we will win there - if we do the work!

Thanks to all of you who donated to Ruben yesterday. We raised almost $40,000, and are now over $500,000 raised for the cycle! Amazing work all.

Please share this video with those you think might be interested. Here are my toplines on the election right now:

  • The Vice President has a 2-3-4 point lead in the national popular vote, is closer to 270 in the battlegrounds and has far better favs/unfavs than Trump. She is better liked and more likable and that matters as people make up their mind in the closing days. High quality national polls in the last few days saw her standing pat or even gaining ground.

  • Since Dobbs it has been the Democratic Party who has been overperforming public polls, and Rs/Trump who have been underperforming. Perhaps this election will be like 2020, but it is in my view far more likely to be like these post-Dobbs elections

  • Our financial and ground advantages means more ads and direct voter contacts in the final days, making it far more likely we move a close election towards us than they move it towards them. In keeping with that theory we are outperforming 2020 so far in the 7 battleground state early vote - an encouraging sign. And there are 80 million postcards making their way to the battlegrounds!!!!!!!!!

  • The GOP underperformance in battleground Senate and Gov races (esp. Lake and Robinson) remains a problem for Trump and Republicans more broadly, as does the unprecedented efforts by Republicans and former Republicans to persuade their Republicans to vote for Harris

  • Abortion ballot initiatives could give us an extra boost in a few key places

  • Be aware of the magnitude of the 2024 red wave effort. It has far bigger than 2022 and includes new actors like Polymarket and Elon. They are working hard to create the impression that the election is slipping away from us when it isn’t. And a reminder that they would only be flooding the zone with their polls again if they didn’t think they were winning the election

  • Our candidate isn’t unraveling on camera every day, and ducking challenging interviews and debates. Our candidate isn’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon, the oldest person to be the nominee of an American political party and the most dangerous political leader in all of our history. Our candidate, the Vice President of the United States of America, is strong, winning, optimistic, committed to opportunity and freedom, is for the people and is working unbelievably hard to win this election for all of us.

We are winning the election my friends, but have not won it yet. Heads down now and let’s go out there and win this thing, together. For our freedoms, our democracy, our families and our future.

More on the early vote tomorrow. Ran out of space today!

2 Events Tonight -

  • 715pm ET - A Hopium Winning The House Thursday, this one for Tony Vargas (NE-02). Tony has had some good polling, is raising lots of money and the early vote is coming in strong in NE. Tony be joining us for an update on his race, winning the blue dot and the Nebraska Senate race. I will also do a brief overview of the national political landscape for those who come to work. These events have been great - thank you all! Register here. Going to be a good one!

  • 9pm ET - Simon and Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) join Washington State Indivisible for a discussion of “October Optimism” - Register here.

The Vice President Is Working Hard And Closing Strong - With three weeks to go a lot is coming at us now. The Vice President did a major event yesterday in PA with over 100 Republicans who have endorsed her from across the country:

I am proud of the Vice President for taking her message to Fox News yesterday. It shows she is strong, confident, ready, unlike Trump who is ducking debates and interviews and keeps unraveling on national television. Here is how Politico saw it:

Since she replaced President JOE BIDEN atop the ticket, the most pervasive knock on VP KAMALA HARRIS has been that she’s too buttoned up, employing a risk-averse strategy that hews toward friendly interviewers who lob softball questions and don’t challenge her enough.

After her Fox News sitdown with BRET BAIER last night, you can forget that.

There are 19 days left in the election. And with no debate and DONALD TRUMP playing it safe, Harris is showing that she understands she needs to take more risks in order to control her campaign narrative — and, despite some hiccups, she managed to do that…..

But set aside those knee-jerk responses, and you can see the bigger truth: This was a snapshot of a presidential candidate who knows she has work to do to close the deal, and is willing to take chances, play aggressively and, frankly, get comfortable with the street-fight mentality she’ll need to eke out a win.

Working hard and closing strong.

Here’s the exchange that has gotten the most attention:

Trump also got challenged a bit more at his Univision interview than he anticipated. Watch this exchange and note the crowd shot reaction to him, and that he referred to those who attacked the Congress on January as 6th as “we,” as if he was part of the mob itself.

Last night the Jimmy Kimmel Show released this video with actor Dave Bautista. Simply it is one of the best pieces of political media I’ve ever seen and should be shared widely. #TrumpIsAWeakLittleBabyBitch

Doing More, Worrying Less In The Home Stretch - Heads down, let’s keep working hard everyone! Be sure to review my new post on our home stretch strategy to close strong and win the election.

My one big ask today - let’s give to Anderson Clayton and The North Carolina Dems to mark the first day of early in person voting in this critical battleground state. It is hard to see how Trump can win without North Carolina, and with Mark Robinson’s epic implosion, things got much harder for Trump and all Republicans there. This is the year to turn this purple state blue!

We’ve been all in for NC this year at Hopium, and in part due to our enormous investment, look at what Anderson Clayton sent me last night:

900,000 doors knocked three weeks out in a state where 5.4m people voted in 2020 - incredible stuff from Anderson and NC Dems who are clearly bringing it this year!

We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Harris-Walz For President - $1,250,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel

Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:

Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House in a few weeks. We need to keep working it peeps!

You Can Now Call Or Postcard Anytime, Not Just on Thursdays - I will be doing a broader update on our postcarding and phonebanking program for the home stretch soon - we are still working on a few things.

Meanwhile our plucky community has now mailed over 100,000 postcards into these 15 races over these last several months. Our last day for postcarding given that we are targeting the early vote is this Friday, October 18th. If you head here you can grab more addresses for any of the 15 and help us keep driving the early vote and winning the election in October. At that link you can also find ways to phonebank for our candidates and Harris-Walz too any time - not just on Thursdays.

Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:

Growing The Hopium Community - We’ve set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:

  • Hopium Subscribers - 108,719 this morning, 125,000 goal

  • Paid Subscribers - 12,699 this morning, 14,000 goal

This new effort is off a great start everyone - thank you! Keep working it. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below or following this link. It includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you!!!!! Simon

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