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Oct 17
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David E Kolva, MD's avatar

What a great voting guide. Thank you for posting and helping turn NC Blue again.

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Oct 17
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Blue Virginia's avatar

This is a kick-ass video. I love the Lincoln Project.

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TCash's avatar

Really enjoyed your session last night. Tom was very insightful with his early vote analysis and was such a pleasure to hear from Ruben Gallegos, especially with his young family in the background.

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TCash's avatar

Simon, we gotta get you some AirPods! 😉😆😂lol

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Fran's avatar

I listened before bed and went to sleep with a smile on my face.

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Diana's avatar

He’s just so delightful. He will be a wonderful addition to the Senate.

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TCash's avatar

And 200 more postcards just got dropped off today for Wisconsin

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fourfreedomsfan's avatar

Just mailed 80 postcards for Adam Gray (CA-13).

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ArcticStones's avatar

This morning, I mailed 100 cards to Michigan.

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Cindy H's avatar

Yay! Feels good, doesn't it?

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TCash's avatar

You bet it does!!!!!

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Patrick E. White's avatar

Me too. Working on 100 more.

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Stephen Sepaniak's avatar

I’m mailing two hundred to Florida today! It’s encouraging that Postcards to Swing States thinks Floridians are persuadable. Maybe we won’t get them this time, but they'll flip soon.

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Shmoobly's avatar

Yes! Stephen, postcardstovoters dot org has for quite some time had a campaign to get Florida voters registered. I'm not focusing on Florida for now (better imho to target NC and others right now). But they are playing "long ball," and my wife and I intend to keep going with them long after this election is over! We will flip Florida blue next year!

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ArcticStones's avatar

Passing the Abortion Amendment, having Debbie Mucarsel-Powell replace Senator Rick Scott, and turning Florida’s legislature and congressional delegation a slightly Bluer tinge, will be significant victories!

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ArcticStones's avatar

PENNSYLVANIA UPDATE:

📥 692,561 votes cast

– 🔵 DEM: 450,379 - 43.5% returned

– 🔴 GOP: 179,208 - 35% returned

– 🟡 IND: 62,974 - 29.9% returned

VBM Splits: 🔵 65% / 🔴 25.9% / 🟡 9.1%

🔷 DEM firewall: +271,171

📈 Return Edge: D+8.5

https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq/status/1846929247908020687#m

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Rebecca Rothman's avatar

Love these updates! But am new to these stats and want to make sure I am reading correctly. The percentage "X returned" isn't the % returned from the total votes, it's the total returned from people who have requested Dem/Rep early ballots? Is that right?

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ArcticStones's avatar

Correct! Democrats have requested more ballots and are returning them more quickly. That’s reflected in the voting percentages (VBM Split) – and it’s allowing Democrats to accrue an advantage. That’s the "Democratic Firewall", currently over 270,000. If we have a large firewall heading into Election Day, it will be difficult if not impossible for Republicans to catch up.

And as Fran points out, our Firewall will be amplified by our expectedly-greater share of Independent voters and the not-insignificant number of Republicans who will vote for Harris.

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Scott Christensen's avatar

Im not 100% on how these numbers tally and the dates left but does this allow us to project out a final "Firewall" number or a what pace are we on? From previous posts, it appears to be 450-500k, correct? I like these numbers better than polls since they are factual and real.

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ArcticStones's avatar

I believe that’s the target. Joshua Smithley mentioned Dems were adding about 30k to the Firewall each day. A lot can change as the Early Vote proceeds, but he though it looked very good for Democrats so far.

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Nick's avatar

quick calculator math 30k with 18 days left gets to almost 854k returned which to me is a good number but maybe im wrong

Pa in person doesnt start till next week i think, so some of those with ballots will just vote in person early or Eday.

anyone know if my math or dates are off?

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Scott Christensen's avatar

Does in person count toward the firewall?

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ArcticStones's avatar

There is no way that’s going to be a linear progression!

That said, it will be exciting to see what happens, in Philly and elsewhere, when Early In-Person Voting starts.

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Chris Dwyer's avatar

Also see Tom Bonier’s https://targetearly.targetsmart.com

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Fran's avatar

& this doesn’t even factor in the Indies and Republicans voting Harris/Walz!

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Ashley AD's avatar

PA has the power of "Gritty" behind it! A friend of mine in NC just posted a pic from a loonnnnng early voting line. These crucial states are showing up - not going back!

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Dianne Chrestopoulos's avatar

Thank you, I was concerned about how they would be voting in NC with the flooding and all.

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KL Pierce's avatar

I’m waiting in line to vote in Asheville, NC!

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Ashley AD's avatar

Hope you're OK! The flooding footage from Asheville was devastating.

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Peter Luciano's avatar

Can anyone explain Pa early vote with D’s getting 2 1/2 times more votes than R’s but in Georgia after 300,000 votes D’s are barely ahead of the R’s. Confused!!

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ArcticStones's avatar

Great question! I am hoping the picture will become clearer when Tom Bonier catches up with the data. He’s a full day behind.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout

In-person: 312,260 on Tuesday; 276,667 yesterday; 252,128 today as of 6:30pm.

Total Early Vote now exceeds 893,000. Over 12.4% of registered Georgians have voted!

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Chris Dwyer's avatar

Though if we all get familiar with Tom’s work at https://targetearly.targetsmart.com, HC’ers will share a common operating picture, in Emergency Management parlance, for convos.

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Brian's avatar

Nobody’s going to win Georgia by much. But we already knew that.

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Michael's avatar

I've been reading for a while and finally subscribed. I couldn't quite figure out how to join last night's stream/event. Can anyone direct me for the future? Thanks, all!

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Cindy H's avatar

You register with the link that Simon provides. You then get a confirmation email with the link for the Zoom.

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ArcticStones's avatar

GEORGIA: Tom Bonier’s TargetEarly (TargetSmart) has posted its "Modeled Party" analysis of Georgia’s Early Vote. So far, Republican and Democratic voting seems to be neck-in-neck. This is a contrast to the 2020 Presidential and 2022 Midterm Elections, when Democrats were running up a significant Early-Vote advantage. But it’s still early!

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?calc_type=voteShare&count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=GA&view_type=state

Note: IT’S STILL EARLY! (And so far Tom’s data only has Tuesday’s In-Person vote.)

Georgia has a stellar Election Data Hub, showing hourly updates (with just 30-minute lag) of how many people have voted:

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout

In-person: 312,260 on Tuesday; 276,667 yesterday; 243,054 today as of 5:30pm

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Cindy H's avatar

Okay I will take this as good news. 💙

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Maurice D. Harris's avatar

It is true that comparing 20 days out from E. Day in 2020 and 2024, Dems in 2020 had a 50.5 to 42.6 lead. OTOH, the final early vote numbers in 2020, according to TargetSmart, ended with the GOP having the higher percentage, 48.2 to 43.6 -- a nearly 200,000 vote advantage (assuming people were voting the same as their party reg). And yet Biden won GA -- in other words, unlike some of the other battlegrounds, in 2020 at least GA was won on E. Day. In any event, the impression I'm getting is that the more important numbers to compare for GA will be final early/mail vote totals. If Dems are running even, then they'll be 4 1/2 points better than they were at that same time in 2020. I realize all this is speculative. 2020 was unique. And this year is unique. Here's some other data I just found on the GA sec state page, which ArcticStones rightly points out is amazing. As of just befor 1 pm Eastern time today, 55.8 % of all votes cast so far are from women. Nearly 1/3 of all votes cast are from Black Americans. Hope this info is useful and hope-inducing.

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Maurice D. Harris's avatar

Small correction: Black voters have cast nearly 1/3 as many votes as White voters. There are 3+% votes cast so far by Latinx voters and same for Asian/P.I. voters, and over 8% don't have racial/ethnic identity in the database or may have multi-racial identity. IDK how that mix compares to 20 days out in 2020 or to early vote totals in 2020. To my untrained eye, though, it looks good.

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Maurice D. Harris's avatar

Ugh I think I may have misread the graphs. Please disregard what I posted about the racial demographics of the current turnout. I may have misread the gender data too. I defer to others more knowledgeable on how the GA data looks so far. ArcticStones, want to give it a look? The trouble I'm having has to do with one of the selection options in the interactive graph, where you tell it which election to choose. I can't be sure I'm doing that part right

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ArcticStones's avatar

Maurice, it’s tricky. For instance, I initially overlooked that I had to select the correct election date! :)

NB. If you wish, you can edit your post by clicking the tree dots below it.

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ArcticStones's avatar

This is great information! Thank you for adding it.

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Ira Glazer's avatar

1 Chag Sameach :-)

2 What you say about the mail vote is important. Warnock won 68% of the mail vote.

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Pete's avatar

If I understand Tom's comments from last night's presentation, there is anticipation that fewer early votes will be cast this cycle than in 2020, and younger voters who voted early in 2020 are most likely to convert back to Election Day voting this cycle. Perhaps that's happening in Georgia?

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RP2112's avatar

Thanks for the updates. I think GA is a stretch. Popular R Governor, and a giant rural population. However, I wouldn't ever count it out with Stacey Abrams on the ground there. If Fulton County starts voting big, it's definitely in play. NC, on the other hand, seems right on the verge of going blue. Popular D governor, and some hefty metro areas, with a fantastic Dem chair working 24/7. I think NC is the real opportunity in 2024. Onward!

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Brian's avatar

It looks that way. Outside of the Blue Wall and dot, I like NV and NC.

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Jarrod Emerson's avatar

Worth pointing out that "popular" Republican governor has been somewhat resistant to MAGA. Again, assuming we are victorious in Georgia, the people responsible for administering elections ( Raffenaberger & Sterling etc. ) are still in office.

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RP2112's avatar

Yes, this is a great point. Kemp and Trump have an Elaine-Puddy relationship. Trump insults him, Kemp gets pissed, then they get back together, over and over again. However, Kemp has played his cards perfectly. He certified the 2020 vote, which drove Trump bonkers to the point of endorsing his opponent in the 2022 primary. But Kemp demolished that opponent, so he realized he has more leverage than Trump in GA. However, if he has national ambitions, he "needs" to not alienate Trump and MAGA. So, he doesn't go Geoff Duncan on Trump's ass. My guess is that if we are to win GA, there will be a lot of ATL-metro suburban Kemp supporters who vote for VP Harris. Trump will have the Kemp rural vote locked up.

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Dottie Stone's avatar

The maga election board in Georgia lost twice this week which was great. The judge ruled no changes this close to the election and then a second judge knocked down having to count every vote by hand. Also, the election board is mandated by law to certify by the next Monday after election day. So thank heaven for the law and order! They were trying to say they had the power not to certify if they felt something was off. They absolutely do not!

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ArcticStones's avatar

WaPo headline suggests GOTV efforts are somehow nefarious:

– "Massive influx of shadowy get-out-the-vote spending floods swing states"

https://wapo.st/3Yp5gSa

(The only thing that clearly is nefarious is Elon Musk offering people $47 for each swing state voter they recruit for Trump.)

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Fran's avatar

They didn’t specify which sources are “shadowy?” 🙄

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Ashley AD's avatar

He's also dumping money into House races, such as the one here in NJ CD-7. Go away, Apartheid Clyde - you're weird and racist and we don't want you controlling our uteruses!

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Mauimom's avatar

The $40,000 that Hopium racked up for Ruben yesterday included my "joyful" contribution. And loved yesterday's interview with Ruben!!!

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Julie Bannerman's avatar

A friend is panicked that the betting markets are heavily favoring Trump now. She says they’re rarely wrong - 2016 as an example. What’s the data on these projections? Are they reliable?

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Oct 17Edited
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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Josh the idea that bettors resemble the electorate is fucking bonkers and you need to take this post down unless you can back this assertion up with data. Particularly on crypto based sites.

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Josh's avatar

Simon, I will see if I can in a timely manner find some of research papers I read about gambling habits among the population. This was a hobby topic for me a few years back when my state was looking make sports betting legal. But I am unlikely to be able to produce it quickly.

I normally am prompt to remove something when you ask, but it is not bonkers to expect the betting markets to have some correlation to the electorate. Prior to polling it was one of the few indicators people had. I would say and did in my comment it is not super useful in a close election, like this one. People who like to gamble and those who are inclined to do so are a meaningful percentage of the population.

I am not defending polymarket, in fact in my comment I state that I would believe people are specifically weighting it.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Worth noting: Peter Thiel has brokered a marriage between Polymarkets, of which he is part owner, and Nate Silver. Betting and election analysis should never go hand-in-hand.

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RP2112's avatar

Yes, kind of like mortgage financing and market investments should not go hand-in-hand in the banking industry :-). Way too much chance for manipulation. I personally don't think Nate Silver is engaging in shenanigans (he might be wrong, and his models might be off, but not dishonestly so), but your point is spot on: one can influence the other heavily and directly, so they should be separate.

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Dottie Stone's avatar

Nate Silver gives me the creeps. And so does Thiel. Americans are not allowed to bet on elections. It is unlawful. They are trying to create a false narrative when trump loses, he can cry fraud. So sick!

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ArcticStones's avatar

Nat Silver’s core assumptions and analyses this year do seem to have a Republican tinge that makes me rather uneasy.

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Josh's avatar

My library appears to no longer have digital access to The Oxford University Press, and I am pretty sure one of their Handbooks to the Economics of Gambling covered this specific topic as a chapter, and while I was able to get a library card for a library that does purportedly have access, I am not certain how often they renew their credentials, it may take until Monday.

But I do not appear to have met my goal of timely producing my evidence. I will remove my post per your request.

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Jarrod Emerson's avatar

Ummmm, is she sure? Betting markets MEAN NOTHING. Besides they're being contaminated like polling averages. Particularly PolyMarket, which is owned by ahem... Peter Thiel. .... https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/in-online-betting-parlors-clinton-expands-her-lead-over-trump-bigly/

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David E.'s avatar

See Simon in his most recent appearance on Midas Touch with Ben Meiselas. He addresses this.

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Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Betting markets are not a legitimate way to look into American politics, especially Polymarket which is an off-shore based crypto only betting site that Americans cannot legally bet on. The idea that a foreign site with only foreign bettors can tell us anything about our politics is fucking insane.

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Scott Christensen's avatar

I did not even know they can only be "used" if you are offshore until your video with MTN. WTF?!?

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Stephen Sepaniak's avatar

Also, who’s into crypto? Men, overwhelmingly.

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Martha Tassinari's avatar

Simon is right. They are not legit. Remember, betting sites have a profit motive and the house needs to win.

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Dottie Stone's avatar

The off shore site for betting in the Carribean does not allow betting by Americans on our elections. It takes bets from Crypto in different countries that might be trying to sway people to think trump is winning. Countries like Russia, Iran and China are probably putting bets on their puppet trump. These are not reliable.

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Michael G Baer's avatar

Thank you Simon. VP Harris has mentioned it and legacy press occasionally points to it. . .

Donald Trump is unhinged. His PA dance party a couple nights ago was completely bizarre and KristI Noem had that deer-in-the-headlights look like omg wtf to do to end that nightmare.

Does highlighting orange babyman's further declines and meltdowns and advanced age make sense as part of the central closing argument? Seems like we dance around the edges, and its pretty obvious now that he really has lost several steps, but along with the fearful rhetoric about what a threat he would be if he got back in, isn't it now time to name him BSCM (BatSh*t CrazyMan) and drive it home?

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Linda (Evanston IL)'s avatar

Thank you Simon. VP Harris has 3 events today: U of WI, Milwaukee with Mark Cuban. Then they are going on to LaCrosse. (I would think Mark Cuban has raised a lot of money for VP Harris through his basketball and investor buddies.) Then VP Harris will travel to Green Bay. Incredible energy! The other side is wasting a great deal of money on fake polls, failed election interference cases in states such as Georgia, and all of the mounting legal bills for attempting to defend a convicted felon with 91 indictments. He tries to appeal and delay all he can but these are not winning strategies. The FEC reports will be "interesting". Thank you for all the videos. I could write many more postcards for Christina Bohannan (Iowa-01) since I live in an adjacent state. Also, if you can everyone - Please vote early. If you wait until November 5 you might be in line with MAGA's. That could be unpleasant. Grateful for this community!

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hayleycb1's avatar

Just fonated to NC Dems. Thanks for all you do Simon. Glad to be on this team with you!

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Fran's avatar

Ruben Gallego…what a candidate! So authentic and inspiring. Anyone have the cross tabs to dismantle that ridiculous FOX national poll today? Proud of Kamala not being bulldozed by Baier’s Trump-tailored “interview.” What a disgrace that so many Americans are willing and eager to cover for and promote a deranged fascist. We’re not going back!!

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Patrick Meighan's avatar

Last night I hosted a phonebank party for Kamala/Tim here at my Culver City, CA home. There were 25 of us calling NC and NV.

No freakouts in this Quiet Car! We are working!

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ArcticStones's avatar

That’s the first time I’ve ever heard a Call Center described as a "Quiet Car"! ;)

/s

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Shmoobly's avatar

Haha, 'Stones, I think Patrick was referring to THIS message board which has now been christened as the "DMWL Quiet Car." (tm)

The idea is don't make unnecessary freakout noise here--keep it quiet, people are trying to work! (grin)

Love your posts and analysis btw stones!

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Russell Owens's avatar

VP Harris showed her true mettle in the Fox News interview. Mr Baier should be ashamed of his conduct - fundamental dishonesty. There's film showing exactly what Trump said about the enemy within and references to Congressman Schiff and Leader Pelosi. He really is a disgusting, deranged specimen. I'm hoping thanks to your collective efforts he'll get his comeuppance soon. Thank you all.

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Steve's avatar

Definitely!

I am so glad Kamala Harris is a former prosecutor with the chops to smack him down!

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