141 Comments

Really great successes on the Pharma. Simon I sent you a note a couple of weeks ago about the work we are doing re Ask Nurses and Doctors (www.asknursesdoctors.com). Hopefully we can work together. Feel free to email me at norbert@asknursesdoctors.com.

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Thanks for link, Dr. Goldfield. I downloaded the pdf "Pharmaceutical Prices and What to do About Them" and will probably work through the rest of your links. Health care is a huge issue that we can't expect just the President to fix. It's going to take a functional Congress : this is one reason that, as an activist, I have been repeatedly pointing out to voters and other activists how important those down-ticket races are. Consumers also have a big role: the most significant advances happen when we get together with folks like you and work together.

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Greetings from American Airlines flight 1210 from LAX to Philly. Flying over there right now to spend Fri-Mon knocking on doors for Kamala.

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Kudos to you for not treating Pennsylvania as a flyover state! ;)

Amazing work. Thank you for your service!

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Thank you! Are you doing it with Progressive Turnout Project? I was so impressed with their work when I joined the zoom the other day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=canYnlmd_gQ&t=1480s

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Nah, I signed up through the Harris campaign. I registered for the canvasses on Mobilize.

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🙏🏻 Thank you Patrick for representing all that’s good about California! You’re amazing!🇺🇸

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You are AMAZING!!!

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This campaign has managed to alienate, insult and denigrate women in every way possible. For older women, like me, we vote, our daughters vote and our granddaughters will vote. AND we will remember what they said.

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In 2016, 53 percent of White women voted for Trump. That must not, and will not, happen again!

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I hope that they continue alienating everyone!

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Thanks for all you do. I suggest a discussion of how the abortion rights ballot initiatives will give our side many advantages. So far, abortion is on the ballot in 8 states and could be in as many as 11 states. (https://publicleadershipinstitute.org/repro-rights-report/) Most important, it's on the ballot in Arizona and Nevada, where it will bring out a lot of unexpected voters allowing our side to outperform the polls. The same is also true in Florida (President, US Senate) and New York (key congressional races).

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My crystal ball says it will help Kamala Harris get elected, since women are excited about the first female POTUS. See https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/arizona-and-missouri-are-the-latest-states-to-add-abortion-amendments-to-the-ballot-what-would-the-measures-do

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Aug 16·edited Aug 16

I never believed that Biden would not win. So many factors that Simon mentioned told the real story. With Kamala and Tim, Fall has come early and the inevitable is happening right before our eyes!!!

1. Democracy (I know no one who ever expressed boredom with our democratic system). Democracy may not be perfect, but we'll miss it when it's gone.

2. Abortion (i.e., democracy ... )

3. Crazy criminal: Legal AF podcast on the Meidas Touch News Network reported on the definite upcoming trmp sentencing on September 18th. It sounds possible that 🙀 !!JAIL TIME!! may be happening; why tr's lawyers are trying everything!! to delay that event until after the election. (I heard that JAIL WILL happen, but short of a written declaration, my heart may have heard what it wishes to happen.) The details pre- and post sentence are public record (trmpf would like to block that as well)!

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https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/voters/gender-differences-voter-turnout there are about 7.4 million more women voters than men registered in the US, and women are fueling the increasing popularity of Harris-Walz ticket in the polls according the CNN video with Simon this morning. see Harry Enten: Women voters are fueling Kamala Harris’ polling surge

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And it is "unofficially" on the ballot here in NC. (We don't have voter-sponsored ballot initiatives here). The GOP candidate for Governor, Mark Robinson, is an extremist and on record for saying he would sign a total ban on abortion with NO exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother. He has tried to back away from that position lately, but I don't think it's working since the ads are always his own voice or video of him saying the outrageous stuff! The Democrats have the receipts!!

https://www.realmarkrobinson.com/

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Aug 15·edited Aug 15

I have a question that's been nagging me about abortion ballot initiatives. Say an initiative is passed into law and and becomes part of the state's constitution. Codified, if you will. Then say, hypothetically (and God forbid), a nationwide abortion ban is passed. Does federal supercede state? And if so, shouldn't we let voters know this, and urge them to vote not only for the initiative, but also to vote blue up and down the ticket to make sure a ban is never passed? Can anyone clarify this?

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Good question.

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Aug 16·edited Aug 16

I am not a lawyer, but I am fairly certain that a federal abortion law prohibits anti-abortion actions at the state-level: They take precedence over state laws. It's why the repubs want to pass a national law banning abortion if they win.

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So do federal laws always take precedence over state laws? Now Roe v Wade, in my understanding, wasn't a federal law, it was a judicial ruling that superceded states' anti-abortion laws. So two different things. I feel like we just have to keep working, through and past this election, every single year, to make sure NO republicans, on any level, maga or otherwise, ever get into power again. I never trusted that party, even before I started voting in the early '80s, and sadly they never stopped proving my point.

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Aug 16·edited Aug 16

Unless state law is distinct per state circumstances (i.e., waterway rights?), federal law is the law of the land. Anything that happens across state lines, is federal in nature (i.e., a crime, or treatment of people apply to all).

I just read this online. "The U.S. Constitution declares that federal law is “the supreme law of the land.” As a result, when a federal law conflicts with a state or local law, the federal law will supersede the other law or laws. This is commonly known as “preemption.”

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Thanks so much, Susan. I hope all these state initiatives pass; I also hope voters are aware that it's equally important to support the only party committed to a federal "initiative" as well as other important democratic policies. (Thinking about republicans who support reproductive freedom but still want to vote their party otherwise.)

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Simon, I want to see some data on small business growth and job creation. Your red / blue job creation graphic is powerful. We hear that most of these jobs are created by businesses with fewer than 50 employees. Where do we get that data? You know: total jobs created, broken out by small vs large businesses. This information will also fit with the Biden/Harris/Walz pitch that some degree of inflation is 'greedflation' generated by corporate monoplies, and that needs to be a focus of the new Democratic populism. Please and thank you.

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..."Monty Python skit on an episode of VEEP..." great line!

We still need a stronger "bacon message." I'm not sure 'greedflation" is it.

We also need something on insurance. In particular, homeowner's insurance. I'm in rural California in 'fire country." All the areas of the country that have been hard hit by fires, hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes - are seeing their premiums skyrocket. Insurance is unaffordable. Companies are getting away with denying legitimate claims. Insurance is the canary of climate change.

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deletedAug 15·edited Aug 15
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I totally agree. I think the Biden Admin has done amazing work to bring our economy out of the pandemic. Unfortunately, it isn't resonating with people to the point they understand it. All people - no. But some people are just looking at their shopping list, the cost for a plumber, their insurance, etc. and feeling pinched. We need a stronger message on that front. they think Biden caused inflation and Trump is going to brand Harris with it. That is my point. We need something that resonates like "drill, baby, drill."

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I think there is a lot of anger in corporations with anti-trust actions of Biden - see Lina Khan. This anger shows up in media with vicious unfair attacks on Bidenomics

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I think it is simpler than that. People do not read or watch the news. They still vote. People do not understand economics or what drove the inflation. And there are lots of FB memes to reinforce blaming Biden. We need something short that cuts through that.

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I dunno…People who should know better are blaming Biden …

https://youtu.be/tU3rGFyN5uQ?si=Sa_1iDmRI6crDhtp

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHUUTpxmzxA

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They don't know better. I don't watch Stewart. Nothing against him. I ignore Summers and Kudlow.

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I think this article can be enormously helpful for phone bankers and canvassers:

https://open.substack.com/pub/grassrootsconnector/p/i-dont-vote?r=3u95b&utm_medium=ios

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Aug 15·edited Aug 15

That's exciting stuff. Both Momouth and Emerson are top-10 pollsters according to 538. So, the creme de le creme of polling. Hard to believe how much this race has changed in just 30 days. And we haven't even had our convention!

Digging further into that Monmouth poll, it doesn't release pure topline horse race numbers which can be included in aggregators. Instead, it measures strength of support for a candidate among registered voters based on "Definitely", "Probably", "Probably not", and "Definitely not" classifications. You can glean horse race numbers based on a compare of the "Definitely"/"Probably" voters for each candidate. In that regard, Monmouth has Harris up by 5 points in all scenarios (2-way, 3-way and all candidates).

More importantly, Trump's "Definitely not" percentage is 49% (Harris' is only 44%). That's really bad news for Trump. His ceiling is still way too low to win.

Let's keep Trump's ceiling low. Remind folks wherever and whenever possible that Trump is the asshole who started the racist birther conspiracy on Obama. Trump wanted the innocent Central Park 5 executed. Trump is a court adjudicated rapist. A 34X convicted felon. An insurrectionist traitor who tried to overthrow our government, resulting in the deaths of multiple law enforcement officials. A depraved human being who sexualizes his own daughter. A racist who vilifies persons of color and immigrants with dangerous outright lies. Etc.

LET PEOPLE KNOW! Now is the time to be louder! Any way you can. Social media. Coffee shop. Work. Everywhere.

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This is good news. But honestly, Medicare should be empowered to negotiate the price of ALL medications. (Democrats could and should have done better when passing the legislation.)

Hopefully President Kamala Harris and Democratic majorities in both the Senate and House can remedy this.

PS. Another policy wish that I have: forbid insurance companies form establishing so-called "provider networks". Travel insurance does not dictate who you can see; there is absolutely no reason it should be allowed for healthcare within the US. Everyone should be free to choose any healthcare provider unless they are actually blacklisted,

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Aug 15·edited Aug 15

Arctic (or would you prefer "Stones"?), this is round 1. As the law is written, the list will be updated each year, and additional medications selected for negotiations in the future. I agree, most prescription drugs are overpriced, and ideally I'd like to see an overall examination of the whole industry's pricing practices. But we do have other means to put pressure on reducing the cost (lawsuits, concerted consumer protests, etc) and they have been successful in a number of cases (including one very expensive drug I take to manage crippling migraines).

As for "Democrat's could and should have done better....", I'd ask you "How was that to happen in the atmosphere in which they worked?" Part of what we are doing right now is trying to set up the Congress so that they have not only the votes they need to pass stronger legislation, but also the public awareness to put pressure on Pharma to cooperate.

I am planning a trip to Australia to visit a friend, and while I planned to get travel insurance anyway, I discovered that Australia has specific requirements that visitors need to meet. The cost is reasonable, but it means I have to figure out the Australian insurance system. Oy. My friend and his family are automatically covered, of course, but visitors have to buy insurance that meets Australian rules. So it is not as simple as you think, at least to me. As for America, my insurance does allow me to see whoever I wish, as long as they are in America. Thus travel insurance.

My Part D provider, on the other hand, has "preferred providers" (all the big chains) with whom they have negotiated different price structures and co-pays. Which means in practice that while the consumer saves a couple bucks on the co-pay (to lure people in), the insurance company pockets the difference in their cost as profit. This company was engaging in some other practices designed to intimidate people into paying a higher monthly fee "to prevent your account from being closed".

I live in a small state with little choice, but I was able to contact someone in the state who does health insurance oversight, who set a process in motion that resulted in changes pretty quickly. (ALL of my delayed pre-auths came through all at once within days, and I am able to stay with my local pharmacy.) I am hoping that the Part D will be completely revamped to a single payer system so this kind of thing will not happen, period.

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You make several excellent point. And thank you for sharing the challenges of traveling to Australia.

My own point of reference is the absurd difference in drug prices between the USA and Europe – even ignoring the separate question of *who* pays.

When I buy meds in Norway, some are covered or mostly covered by the state. But for the ones that I have to pay myself, in full, I am paying a fraction of what my copay is here in the USA.

There is something fundamentally wrong when Americans have the dubious "privilege" of paying several times more for the same drugs people in other countries do.

As to your first point, yes, lowering the cost on 10 drugs was the best that could be achieved when the pharmaceutical industry had "bought" votes on both sides of the aisle.

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I agree, and think you hit on the big reason our entire health system is out of whack. It's lopsided, and as always the wealthy corporations benefit and the rest of us pay. That is the way our entire economic system is set up. Getting sick in America has the biggest impact on bankrupcies among the middle class, and pushing the poor into homelessness. I have a hard time calling the US "leader" in anything so long as we refuse to change these conditions. I am very very fortunate to live in a state that covers what Medicare does not, which enables me to live a fairly normal life and still be able to pay my bills (so far).

My brother's family struggled and nearly went bankrupt when he was diagnosed with stage 4 cancer (they live in a different state. Beyond the stress of dealing with the illness and surgeries and treatments themselves, they had to fight at every point to get any kind of coverage. This is not how an so-called "advanced" society should function. My brother beat the cancer and was considered cancer-free for several years (this is very rare for the kind of cancer he was diagnosed with). Earlier this year his scan showed a couple of "hot spots", so he is back in treatment, this time with a cutting edge biological, as part of a study (thank god for that).

We need to change how our health system works.

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Annie, I am glad to hear the treatment for your brother was successful, and that he and his family avoided bankruptcy. It’s outrageous that they had to deal with those economic pressures in addition to everything else.

I pray your brother’s current treatment is a success!

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Wow - very confusing

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Today, historian Heather Cox Richardson quantifies what we’re talking about:

"In 2021 a study by the RAND Corporation found that drug prices average 2.56 times higher in the U.S. than in 32 other countries. For name brand drugs, U.S. prices were 3.44 times those in comparable nations."

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/august-15-2024

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I hope you also read the comments on Heather's column, AS. They add a great deal of depth to the story. HCR in her column writes a kind of daily log of the day's events and generally includes historical background material. Her weekly live talks often range further, but in the columns it is often the commenters who add the information that makes the daily events take on life as it is lived. When I wrote above, I also was expanding the story to include a wider context.

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Good point. Often I do not have time to read the comments to HCR. When I do, I tend to find them informative and enriching, as you underscore.

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Today, historian Heather Cox Richardson quantifies what we’re talking about:

"In 2021 a study by the RAND Corporation found that drug prices average 2.56 times higher in the U.S. than in 32 other countries. For name brand drugs, U.S. prices were 3.44 times those in comparable nations."

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/august-15-2024

(Note: A separate question is *who* pays for the med.)

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Hopefully, if we win the House, Madame President can continues Joe's work.

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More good news!! Cook Political support swing state poll results featured on PBS NewsHour:

Harris vs. trump: +5 WI, +2 MI, +5 PA, +2 NC, + 4 AZ, GA tied and only NV is weird. https://www.cookpolitical.com/.../2024.../14Aug2024-toplines

Evangelicals (Protestants) for Harris with ad about Trump's lack of remorse for his transgressions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCm27BeZge4

Republicans for Harris virtual meeting: https://www.c-span.org/video/?537718-1/republicans-harris-virtual-meeting

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As far as I know, "Two Corinthians 3:17" is the only Bible verse Donald Trump has ever managed to refer to. But the self-styled "Chosen One" really would like those two Corinthians to contribute to his campaign, buy his Trump Bible and gold-colored sneakers.

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I hear Nevada is hard to poll. I’d be interested in what Jon Ralston thinks. That man knows Nevada like the palm of his hand.

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Democrats almost lost Nevada in 2020, and did lose the Governors race. I'm glad to see Harris campaigning there, and hopefully there are other efforts. We need to reinforce the '4 corners' in the SW, and the Blue Wall. That gets us over 270 every time, with Georgia and NC as the 3rd leg.

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Caregivers for Harris

Open meeting for #CaregiversForHarris on Thursday, August 15th, at 5:30 pm PT / 8:30 pm ET.

https://www.mobilize.us/carecantwaitaction/event/658797/

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I already wrote the postcards and will skip the zoom so I can phonebank for Angela Alsobrooks.

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Kim Daniels, a certifiable pro-Trump very weird woman serves as a "Democrat" in the FL House. Her racist and anti-Semitic remarks include: "You can talk about the Holocaust, but Jews own everything!” and “I thank God for slavery. . . if it wasn’t for slavery, I might be somewhere in Africa worshipping a tree.”)

The deadline for contributing to her excellent primary opponent, Therese Wakefield Gamble is MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. The primary is 8/20

Here is her ActBlue Page: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/therese-w-gamble-for-hd14-1?refcode=directory

More on the race: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/12/2262511/-There-s-Weird-and-there-s-Kim-Daniels-Weird-three-days-to-help-oust-her

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Markers for Democracy wrote over 12 thousand postcards for Therese Wakefield Gamble

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I wrote a bunch myself with PFD for Therese. I missed the meeting where she visited the group, but we sure don't need any "fake" Democrats!

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Will someone organize a “Postmenopausal females for Harris” zoom fundraiser?

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Aug 15·edited Aug 15

Nah. We started this a while back, and we're all too busy fund-raising, writing postcards, making calls, knocking on doors. No time for another Zoom call.

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I can't believe JD introduced this category to the campaign.

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Bill, I'll bet you a cold summer beverage that someone goes ahead with exactly that fundraiser, it's too good to leave alone!

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Election nerds like me may be pleased that the Princeton Election Consortium, run by Prof. Sam Wang, is up and running again. A key concept at PEC is what Dr. Wang calls the "meta-margin". Today he just posted a rather fascinating analysis.

https://election.princeton.edu/articles/crossing/

Here is a salient quote, my clarifications:

"Is [the Presidential meta-margin] done moving? From the steepness [of the graph], I would expect not. The time integration window for the aggregate is currently 2 weeks or 3 polls per state, whichever gives more data, from the FiveThirtyEight API. So even if conditions stop changing, the meta-margin takes at least two weeks to catch up."

In short: the meta-margin is still catching up with Kamala Harris’ actual electoral advantage!

PS. Right now, PEC has Harris at 270 Electoral Votes.

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I'd steer real clear of this guy; he constantly said the 2016 election was baked in, and he'd eat a bug if trump won. Well, he did eat a bug on tv. It was a canned bug, but he kept his word. Sam is great at his academic work, but this stuff ain't his academic work. He is a nice guy though. Can't help but like the guy.

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I’ve been following the Princeton Election Consortium ever since it was launched in 2004. Prof. Wang has been remarkably accurate. The exception was 2016, which a lot of pundits got wrong. Prof. Wang identified and admitted his core mistake (he had assumed that states moved independently rather than moving together).

That contrasts very positively with the likes of Nate Silver who seems incapable of apologizing for his wild inaccuracies and vehement attacks against Simon during the 2022 Midterm Elections. Silver publicly mocked Simon, Tom Bonier and Michael McDonald et al for failing to see the signs of the Red Wave election Silver insisted was coming. They were right, Nate Silver was resoundingly wrong.

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BRAVO SIMON! I am high on Hopium! And I confess, I'm also feeling a huge amount of shaedenfreud-- I love watching tRumPutin and Just Dispicable Vance melting down. I expect to see LaCivita and Wiles get fired anytime now.

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Should I donate more to Jon Tester? I'm getting multiple emails daily - each one with polls showing him down pretty big. I'm concerned.

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I’ve wondered this as well. I did donate to him.

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I continue to wonder whether donating to candidates who are comfortably leading in fundraising is the best use of our dollars. As of June 30, Tester had $7.6 million more cash on hand than Sheehy, according to the FEC. Of course, that could have changed by now. By all means, text, call, write and canvass for any close race, but targeting donations to Dem candidates who are lagging their opponent in funding seems most cost-effective to me. https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/MT/2024/

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