I don’t believe it has, certainly not amongst serious people. Moreover, take a look at the massive Polymarket bets (millions!) that a handful people such as Fredi9999 (rumored to be Elon Musk) are placing on Trump. Narrative, anyone?
Well historically betting markets were the best predictor prior to polls. And it makes sense that people addicted to gambling are probably evenly distributed among the population as a whole. Therefore they "should" work as a poll and for the most part do. Trump is probably a relatively rare figure for the betting markets. His coalition over indexes on rich, unstable and cult like followers who are in their own media bubble.
To further skew the betting markets, people are pretty well off economically and Trump worlds is full of scams and fraud. Where as non-trump world at least according to act blue is be pretty open with their excess funds to stop him.
Sharon, this is so very true. If it weren't for Simon I would be a quivering bowl of Jello right now. Simon deserves some sort of Peace Prize. Keeping Dems Sane, 24 hours a day.
In this Tweet thread, G. Elliott Morris explains how 538 tries to compensate for unserious pollsters that really are not in the business of polling, but rather have found an extremely cost-effective way to influence the news narrative. (My words.)
These pollsters have a strong partisan lean (almost all of them heavily Republican) and are "flooding the zone", striving to impact the polling averages. Simon and others have made the point that they appear to be coordinated.
Here is G. Elliott Morris’ explanation of how 538 deals with this challenge. If you scroll down, he also quantifies what 538’s average would be based exclusively on high-quality polls (from pollsters rated 1.5 or higher).
Absolutely agree, Daniel! There is strong reason to believe the polls are seriously off this year. But obviously poll aggregators can only base their averages on the poll results they see.
I’ll add one more reason: the massive Democratic groundgame and GOTV effort.
While I am holding my breath, I firmly believe that Democrats will once again significantly overperform, just as we did in the 2022 Midterms and in just-about every Special Election since Dobbs.
Other than influencing the narrative do these polls have any other effect? I saw speculation thst it was to make the campaign divert resources to areas that looked closer than they were. However, I find it hard to believe thst campaigns haven't gotten wise to this strategy since they have been using it for so long.
Perhaps they believe could encourage/discourage turnout based on the framing?
Oh, the Dems are surely aware of this. They have their own internal polling that reflects the true numbers accurately and are basing their decisions on that.
So how come the (responsible) news outlets aren't reporting this accurately? If Morris is reporting this, there are respected journalists who are also seeing it. Very frustrating.
Fran, I have been thinking about your question for a while. I used mathematical models for years in my job as an engineer and it frustrated me that big news organizations would allow a corruption of their models. In my view, they do it to maintain the "horse race" narrative which keeps people tuning in for the next hit of adrenaline and/or dopamine. There really is no excuse, for example, for the NYT to have one poll that sampled male voters at 54% when every presidential election in my lifetime had a greater turn out of female voters. According to the US Census, 10 million more women than men voted in 2020 for a sample rate of 53% to 47%, female to male. Women put Biden in the WH. This time, I think the boys will join us and put Harris-Walz into victory circle. Or whatever that is called in Horse Race world.
Fran, It's the greed thing that gets to me as well. Especially since these folks are already so excessively wealthy that there is no question that they do not need more of anything accept, perhaps, compassion and integrity.
Karen, your example of the over-sampling of men in the NYT/Siena poll is especially damning in light of the known Early Vote. So far, women account for 54% of the vote – which is the exact mirror image of what the NYT has!
Hey A/S. I used to build reliability models for electronic systems. I feel very confident about the models I used professionally. However, I am in no way an expert in voting models. If I have read the sampling correctly, then there is a possibility that the NYT has misread the electorate in a big way. I have always felt like this was going to be a Blue Wave. I'm totally confident that we'll flip the House and win the White House. I even expect surprises in the Senate based upon voter registration numbers which seem to overwhelmingly favor female voters. We'll see if I'm reading this correctly. None of this prognostication really matters in the long run. We have to do the work no matter what models we use: donate, postcards, call banking, canvassing. Now I shall turn my attention to the Hurricane Tracking Models. I grew up in FL and still have family there.
My gut feeling we’ll see a Pink Tsunami and a Blue Wave election this year. That women voters account for 54% of the known Early Vote seems a very strong indication of this. We really do need an election result that is well beyond what I call the MoS ("Margin of Steal").
Meanwhile, work to do! I have a batch of postcards ready to go to Michigan.
I hope your family and relatives are safe. Right now, my nephew is in Florida for a scuba diving course, fortunately in Miami and not Tampa.
As for FL, my sister and BIL have filled the gas cans. Secured everything on a deck and patio. Primed the generator. They will have power. My other sister and BIL are preparing for several days without power. Lots of bottles of frozen water to keep things in the fridge good. Secure all documents (insurance forms, passports, title to house) and plan on camping in their house for a while. My nieces have little kids who think this boarding up business is the most fun ever. Hordes of little kids roam from house to house to check on the prep. No school and the adults are all home!!!! Weeeeeeeee.
Thanks for that thread from Morris. It was good to see how 538 weights polls. However, what they do seems silly and unjustified. Morris says 538 "downweight[s] pollsters if they are 'flooding the zone' with surveys, and we add a special penalty for unrated pollsters who are doing this." Well, why do they even include those fraudulent pollsters at all? Why not just average high-quality, independent polls? It's as if I wanted to calculate the batting average of baseball players, so I include both major league professionals and Little Leaguers, but I "downweight" the Little Leaguers. That formula makes no sense to me.
I agree with all of that, and I’ve felt very positive about Wisconsin for those reasons. I know the state well and used to have a business there. I guess I was startled to hear that the Baldwin campaign was so nervous. Of course, I know not to trust WSJ opinions, but this was a well-sourced news piece, and I hadn't even heard whispers about this.
I get it, and believe me, I’m doing quite a bit. I spent yesterday working on my last 300 postcards for Michigan. I’ve also donated more than I probably should have. I was a bit startled by this piece, though. Everybody I've spoken to in Wisconsin has been relatively optimistic, so this was counter to that.
First, WSJ is owned by Murdoch so there's that. Second, we have WI Dem Party Chair Ben Wikler on the ground in WI - I would defer to his assessments 99% of the time over WSJ. He's amazing re: WI status and ground game.
I have a hard time with WSJ stories because: Rupert Murdoch AND most importantly, WI Dem Party chair Ben Wikler is pretty astounding (as stated below). I just spend two hours this morning ballot curing for Wisconsin and all I can tell you is that they're incredibly organized: I have never seen so much data on voters in the VPB in any other state....I don't believe the WSJ.
Yeah, I groused about it elsewhere on this thread earlier. I can appreciate their analysis, but like you said they've predicted outcomes incorrectly before. I live in Oregon, which has a multi-decade streak of democratic governors. However, due to the last governor's unpopularity (and multiple recall attempts) both her last race in "18 and Tina Kotek's '22 race were rated as toss ups (accompanied by plenty of melodramatic headlines and even underwater forecasts at 538), but guess what ? In the end both prevailed. Obviously these are different circumstances but you get my point. Their decision seems to be likely based on some* close poll numbers and the fact that the GOP super pacs seem to be suddenly pouring millions to that race.
Meh. Pretty common fundraising/motivation tactic for a campaign to claim that internals show ticket struggling. WSJ is trying to fabricate a story out of a fundraising/motivation tactic.
WI is close, just like other Blue Wall states. This just means we have to work harder (especially with youth vote in WI).
Dean, in the future need to be a bit more Hopium in the way approach comments. We do more, worry less here. And from a single paywalled article in a Murdoch publication we get all sorts of worry here with no data. It's impossible for me to respond to anything you write here, and what makes "poor internals" as you write it here? Are we losing? It is close? If you are going to become a regular poster here you need to do better, be more precise, not seemingly comfortable with spreading anxiety and worry - "startled," "nervous," "poor" unspecified internals over now three posts. Its all a little alarmist for this site. Every election is close. This is a close election. Rs have just dropped $20m into WI and trying to make a go of it because they are not happy with the map they have right now either in the Presidential or Senate.
Thank you, Simon. I am so happy to send a little extra contribution to Ruben Gallego before his first debate with that loony liar Lake!
And thanks for talking about the postcards because the postcards excite me a lot and have given me a place to focus my worthless worry! I'm finishing up thousands to Georgia and North Carolina voters. Like many of us, prior to the Age of Trump, the main way I acted politically was by keeping up with the news, voting and donating money.
Then in 2018, a kid named Jon Ossof ran to unseat a terrible woman named Karen Handel in a GA house seat - MY GA house seat in the sunny suburbs of Cobb County. Now by 2018, I was practically willing to sell my firstborn son to get GOP politicians (all of them) OUT of office and so I decided to do something more. That 'more' was post-carding. Via shadowy online connections, I was led to a stranger's house to retrieve the materials and addresses - I would contribute the price of a stamp and my scintillating prose. I think I wrote 500 postcards for Ossoff. Alas, for a hot second, it seemed my efforts were in vain because Karen Handel went on to defeat Ossoff and retain her seat...but because G-d has a wonderful sense of humor, Jon Ossoff is now one of my Senators - and I'm pretty sure it's because of those 500 postcards! :-)
You and a bunch of like-minded people put all your efforts to give Biden a working tie in the US Senate. I thank you. I grew up in Florida and what you guys did in Georgia is surely noticed in my home state. Don't sleep on the Sunshine State. You gave us hope. I live in a Blue State now, but send letters to swing districts.
I needed your upbeat reporting this morning. I have my absentee ballot, but I am going to take it to early voting this time. I work as an election inspector in Michigan and want to promote early voting.
Hey everyone. Love all the hard work everyone is doing! As a reminder, if you have the time and/or the inclination, we would love to have you join us here in Charlotte/Mecklenburg County to canvass for the campaign! We need to knock on over 30,000 doors in the next two weeks!
Please sign up online or if you need any help, feel free to message me and I can get you connected with the right folks to sign up. If you can't come here to volunteer, please consider working the virtual phone banking shifts. All of that is available at:
Mecklenberg! I just spoke to a Charlotte voter about the importance of Mecklenberg GOTV to winning NC in a call tonight via Scale to Win. I watched the video from the Mecklenberg Democratic Party Chair that someone on Hopium posted last week and it was really helpful! I explained what happened to NC 2020 when too many Dems stayed home. She will volunteer! This forum is pretty darn helpful at times:)
Yes, yes, yes! Y'all, I have so much family in NC - lots of conservative family in N,C. It has thrilled me to hear & see how many of them are responding positively to Harris AND Dems in general. I try to send GA juju NC's way every day!!
I am getting so many emails and texts asking for more money from Democrats I already support with recurring donations I had to put a stop to it. Harris Victory Fund, Senators, and members of the House,including all those on Simon’s list. We don’t have new voter registration numbers and new voters are not included in these ridiculous polls. We just must “worry less and work more.”
It's all automated and unfortunately, without campaign finance reform they have to keep it churning to stay competitive in this climate. I just put STOP at the end for races I don't want to hear about.
HI Simon….just return from a short trip outside the USA and first thing I read this morning was your HOPIUM post! Simply BRILLIANT news that made my day! As always, you help me keep the faith that all the hard work is so needed but also so effective in keeping TFG and his like from winning. The forces in the media play so much into their hand and the daily outrageous MAGA actions make it depressing and overwhelming to keep up the fight sometimes…Big Kudos to you and all you are doing to keep truth and positive info out there and again confirming that, despite the tough battle , the good guys can and will win …so now is the moment to go full throttle!!!! xxG
Just sent Ruben Gallego a few more bucks, now back to postcards as I wait for “The View” to come on. FYI, I believe in addition to the that, Harris will be on Howard Stern, and Late Show with Colbert today. Normally don’t watch any of those, but I sure will today! 😊😎😄
And regardless of when they appear, how many of them there are or what these stories say, you keep us focused on the right issues Simon. I will say, even as a former journalist who once covered DC, this one took my breath away for a sec.
Hi Paul, As Simon says repeatedly, he is a traitor - and a rapist, fraudster and felon. Not to mention a pathological liar of course. I hope that sufficient Republicans consider these traits sufficiently disqualifying to vote for Harris/Walz.
Just unbelievable. Of course he can't be prosecuted for interfering in foreign policy as an ex-POTUS because SCOTUS is utterly compromised as well. Incredible time in US history. WORK WORK WORK to defeat this MAGA scourge.
Wonderful😭🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
I don’t believe it has, certainly not amongst serious people. Moreover, take a look at the massive Polymarket bets (millions!) that a handful people such as Fredi9999 (rumored to be Elon Musk) are placing on Trump. Narrative, anyone?
Well historically betting markets were the best predictor prior to polls. And it makes sense that people addicted to gambling are probably evenly distributed among the population as a whole. Therefore they "should" work as a poll and for the most part do. Trump is probably a relatively rare figure for the betting markets. His coalition over indexes on rich, unstable and cult like followers who are in their own media bubble.
To further skew the betting markets, people are pretty well off economically and Trump worlds is full of scams and fraud. Where as non-trump world at least according to act blue is be pretty open with their excess funds to stop him.
Sharon, this is so very true. If it weren't for Simon I would be a quivering bowl of Jello right now. Simon deserves some sort of Peace Prize. Keeping Dems Sane, 24 hours a day.
Oh I second that Natalia. Starting last fall I was a wreck - and it scares me to think what shape I'd be in without Hopium!
In this Tweet thread, G. Elliott Morris explains how 538 tries to compensate for unserious pollsters that really are not in the business of polling, but rather have found an extremely cost-effective way to influence the news narrative. (My words.)
These pollsters have a strong partisan lean (almost all of them heavily Republican) and are "flooding the zone", striving to impact the polling averages. Simon and others have made the point that they appear to be coordinated.
Here is G. Elliott Morris’ explanation of how 538 deals with this challenge. If you scroll down, he also quantifies what 538’s average would be based exclusively on high-quality polls (from pollsters rated 1.5 or higher).
https://nitter.poast.org/gelliottmorris/status/1843362936670302310#m
(Nitter is a way of seeing Tweet threads and accessing X / Xitter.)
You are always on it, ArcticStones! I love it!
Still doesn't address:
1. That in the primary Trump vote was a laggard, underperformed 30% in some states.
2. The effect from "new" registrations.
Good points, Daniel!!
Absolutely agree, Daniel! There is strong reason to believe the polls are seriously off this year. But obviously poll aggregators can only base their averages on the poll results they see.
I’ll add one more reason: the massive Democratic groundgame and GOTV effort.
While I am holding my breath, I firmly believe that Democrats will once again significantly overperform, just as we did in the 2022 Midterms and in just-about every Special Election since Dobbs.
I did not know about Nitter- thank you! I refuse to have an X account once Elon took over.
You can also access nitter through xcancel.com.
Other than influencing the narrative do these polls have any other effect? I saw speculation thst it was to make the campaign divert resources to areas that looked closer than they were. However, I find it hard to believe thst campaigns haven't gotten wise to this strategy since they have been using it for so long.
Perhaps they believe could encourage/discourage turnout based on the framing?
Oh, the Dems are surely aware of this. They have their own internal polling that reflects the true numbers accurately and are basing their decisions on that.
The campaigns have internal polling from far more diverse and numerous voters than any media poll.
So how come the (responsible) news outlets aren't reporting this accurately? If Morris is reporting this, there are respected journalists who are also seeing it. Very frustrating.
Fran, I have been thinking about your question for a while. I used mathematical models for years in my job as an engineer and it frustrated me that big news organizations would allow a corruption of their models. In my view, they do it to maintain the "horse race" narrative which keeps people tuning in for the next hit of adrenaline and/or dopamine. There really is no excuse, for example, for the NYT to have one poll that sampled male voters at 54% when every presidential election in my lifetime had a greater turn out of female voters. According to the US Census, 10 million more women than men voted in 2020 for a sample rate of 53% to 47%, female to male. Women put Biden in the WH. This time, I think the boys will join us and put Harris-Walz into victory circle. Or whatever that is called in Horse Race world.
Thanks Karen. It's just another profound disappointment that greed trumps (pun intended) humanity.
Fran, It's the greed thing that gets to me as well. Especially since these folks are already so excessively wealthy that there is no question that they do not need more of anything accept, perhaps, compassion and integrity.
Karen, your example of the over-sampling of men in the NYT/Siena poll is especially damning in light of the known Early Vote. So far, women account for 54% of the vote – which is the exact mirror image of what the NYT has!
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
(These states report gender data: CO, GA, ID, MI, NC.)
Hey A/S. I used to build reliability models for electronic systems. I feel very confident about the models I used professionally. However, I am in no way an expert in voting models. If I have read the sampling correctly, then there is a possibility that the NYT has misread the electorate in a big way. I have always felt like this was going to be a Blue Wave. I'm totally confident that we'll flip the House and win the White House. I even expect surprises in the Senate based upon voter registration numbers which seem to overwhelmingly favor female voters. We'll see if I'm reading this correctly. None of this prognostication really matters in the long run. We have to do the work no matter what models we use: donate, postcards, call banking, canvassing. Now I shall turn my attention to the Hurricane Tracking Models. I grew up in FL and still have family there.
My gut feeling we’ll see a Pink Tsunami and a Blue Wave election this year. That women voters account for 54% of the known Early Vote seems a very strong indication of this. We really do need an election result that is well beyond what I call the MoS ("Margin of Steal").
Meanwhile, work to do! I have a batch of postcards ready to go to Michigan.
I hope your family and relatives are safe. Right now, my nephew is in Florida for a scuba diving course, fortunately in Miami and not Tampa.
Yes, let's make this:
Too Blue to Screw
Too Real to Steal
Too Big to Rig
As for FL, my sister and BIL have filled the gas cans. Secured everything on a deck and patio. Primed the generator. They will have power. My other sister and BIL are preparing for several days without power. Lots of bottles of frozen water to keep things in the fridge good. Secure all documents (insurance forms, passports, title to house) and plan on camping in their house for a while. My nieces have little kids who think this boarding up business is the most fun ever. Hordes of little kids roam from house to house to check on the prep. No school and the adults are all home!!!! Weeeeeeeee.
Thanks for that thread from Morris. It was good to see how 538 weights polls. However, what they do seems silly and unjustified. Morris says 538 "downweight[s] pollsters if they are 'flooding the zone' with surveys, and we add a special penalty for unrated pollsters who are doing this." Well, why do they even include those fraudulent pollsters at all? Why not just average high-quality, independent polls? It's as if I wanted to calculate the batting average of baseball players, so I include both major league professionals and Little Leaguers, but I "downweight" the Little Leaguers. That formula makes no sense to me.
Yeah, I agree with you and seriously doubt 538’s decisions have solved the problem. Simon and other experts can cast more light on that.
So good. Thank you, AS.
I'm smoking the hopium today! Thanks, Simon.
Simon, could you address reports out of Wisconsin that the Baldwin camp is seeing some poor internal polling both for the Senator’s race and Harris’?
I agree with all of that, and I’ve felt very positive about Wisconsin for those reasons. I know the state well and used to have a business there. I guess I was startled to hear that the Baldwin campaign was so nervous. Of course, I know not to trust WSJ opinions, but this was a well-sourced news piece, and I hadn't even heard whispers about this.
The gold standard…https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2024/presidential-choices-in-wisconsin-hold-steady-in-marquette-law-poll-harris-52-trump-48.php
If you bring something like that in here you need data and links please. Can't work from hearsay or rumors.
I’m sorry it was from a WSJ piece someone read to me over the phone. Here it is:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harris-struggling-to-break-through-with-working-class-democrats-fear-fe2038b8
I get it, and believe me, I’m doing quite a bit. I spent yesterday working on my last 300 postcards for Michigan. I’ve also donated more than I probably should have. I was a bit startled by this piece, though. Everybody I've spoken to in Wisconsin has been relatively optimistic, so this was counter to that.
First, WSJ is owned by Murdoch so there's that. Second, we have WI Dem Party Chair Ben Wikler on the ground in WI - I would defer to his assessments 99% of the time over WSJ. He's amazing re: WI status and ground game.
I have a hard time with WSJ stories because: Rupert Murdoch AND most importantly, WI Dem Party chair Ben Wikler is pretty astounding (as stated below). I just spend two hours this morning ballot curing for Wisconsin and all I can tell you is that they're incredibly organized: I have never seen so much data on voters in the VPB in any other state....I don't believe the WSJ.
Cook potiical turning the race from lean D to toss up:
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/wisconsin-senate/wisconsin-senate-shifts-lean-democrat-toss
And cook political report back in 2022 figured democrats would loose like 30 house deats
Yeah, I groused about it elsewhere on this thread earlier. I can appreciate their analysis, but like you said they've predicted outcomes incorrectly before. I live in Oregon, which has a multi-decade streak of democratic governors. However, due to the last governor's unpopularity (and multiple recall attempts) both her last race in "18 and Tina Kotek's '22 race were rated as toss ups (accompanied by plenty of melodramatic headlines and even underwater forecasts at 538), but guess what ? In the end both prevailed. Obviously these are different circumstances but you get my point. Their decision seems to be likely based on some* close poll numbers and the fact that the GOP super pacs seem to be suddenly pouring millions to that race.
Meh. Pretty common fundraising/motivation tactic for a campaign to claim that internals show ticket struggling. WSJ is trying to fabricate a story out of a fundraising/motivation tactic.
WI is close, just like other Blue Wall states. This just means we have to work harder (especially with youth vote in WI).
Dean, in the future need to be a bit more Hopium in the way approach comments. We do more, worry less here. And from a single paywalled article in a Murdoch publication we get all sorts of worry here with no data. It's impossible for me to respond to anything you write here, and what makes "poor internals" as you write it here? Are we losing? It is close? If you are going to become a regular poster here you need to do better, be more precise, not seemingly comfortable with spreading anxiety and worry - "startled," "nervous," "poor" unspecified internals over now three posts. Its all a little alarmist for this site. Every election is close. This is a close election. Rs have just dropped $20m into WI and trying to make a go of it because they are not happy with the map they have right now either in the Presidential or Senate.
Fourth comment, another "startled." Dean you have to cut the shit. Seriously. Or you will be suspended.
Thank you, Simon. I am so happy to send a little extra contribution to Ruben Gallego before his first debate with that loony liar Lake!
And thanks for talking about the postcards because the postcards excite me a lot and have given me a place to focus my worthless worry! I'm finishing up thousands to Georgia and North Carolina voters. Like many of us, prior to the Age of Trump, the main way I acted politically was by keeping up with the news, voting and donating money.
Then in 2018, a kid named Jon Ossof ran to unseat a terrible woman named Karen Handel in a GA house seat - MY GA house seat in the sunny suburbs of Cobb County. Now by 2018, I was practically willing to sell my firstborn son to get GOP politicians (all of them) OUT of office and so I decided to do something more. That 'more' was post-carding. Via shadowy online connections, I was led to a stranger's house to retrieve the materials and addresses - I would contribute the price of a stamp and my scintillating prose. I think I wrote 500 postcards for Ossoff. Alas, for a hot second, it seemed my efforts were in vain because Karen Handel went on to defeat Ossoff and retain her seat...but because G-d has a wonderful sense of humor, Jon Ossoff is now one of my Senators - and I'm pretty sure it's because of those 500 postcards! :-)
Nice! I live in Cobb as well! And am working on my last 200 postcards. Already sent 200.
My sister! Keep on keeping the faith!
Karen Handel, I had forgotten that name. So glad to have Ossoff and Warnock as our senators!
Me too! Georgia is an important state.
Love this-thank you for sharing your story with us🙏🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
You and a bunch of like-minded people put all your efforts to give Biden a working tie in the US Senate. I thank you. I grew up in Florida and what you guys did in Georgia is surely noticed in my home state. Don't sleep on the Sunshine State. You gave us hope. I live in a Blue State now, but send letters to swing districts.
No Question!!! Love Ossoff.
I needed your upbeat reporting this morning. I have my absentee ballot, but I am going to take it to early voting this time. I work as an election inspector in Michigan and want to promote early voting.
Thank you for the work you are doing in Michigan!
Called to find out my town, LIttleton, MA, is mailing them out today .. can't come soon enough.
Hey everyone. Love all the hard work everyone is doing! As a reminder, if you have the time and/or the inclination, we would love to have you join us here in Charlotte/Mecklenburg County to canvass for the campaign! We need to knock on over 30,000 doors in the next two weeks!
Please sign up online or if you need any help, feel free to message me and I can get you connected with the right folks to sign up. If you can't come here to volunteer, please consider working the virtual phone banking shifts. All of that is available at:
https://www.mobilize.us/ncdems/
Thank you everyone for all of your hard work. Hard work is good work!!
The recipe is simple:
Big win in Mecklenburg wins North Carolina – almost certainly winning the Electoral College!
This is exactly right! We are leaving it all on the field for the next 28 days!
Mecklenberg! I just spoke to a Charlotte voter about the importance of Mecklenberg GOTV to winning NC in a call tonight via Scale to Win. I watched the video from the Mecklenberg Democratic Party Chair that someone on Hopium posted last week and it was really helpful! I explained what happened to NC 2020 when too many Dems stayed home. She will volunteer! This forum is pretty darn helpful at times:)
Yes, yes, yes! Y'all, I have so much family in NC - lots of conservative family in N,C. It has thrilled me to hear & see how many of them are responding positively to Harris AND Dems in general. I try to send GA juju NC's way every day!!
That’s awesome news. So encouraging! I hope your family and relatives are safe.
Morning Consult has Colin Allred up 45-44 over Ted Cruz in a poll of 2,700+ likely voters:
https://www.newsweek.com/ted-cruz-warns-democrats-coming-after-me-polls-show-texas-race-tighten-1965506
NYT/Siena brings good news nationally – especially contrasted with their previous polls.
However, their suggestion of Trump suddenly being up 14 points in Florida is, frankly, quite absurd.
There was an additional Times article about that, and how it actually bodes well for Harris in the electoral college.
Can you briefly summarize the article?
I am getting so many emails and texts asking for more money from Democrats I already support with recurring donations I had to put a stop to it. Harris Victory Fund, Senators, and members of the House,including all those on Simon’s list. We don’t have new voter registration numbers and new voters are not included in these ridiculous polls. We just must “worry less and work more.”
I just do Stop2End and then donate to the candidates that I want to.
It's all automated and unfortunately, without campaign finance reform they have to keep it churning to stay competitive in this climate. I just put STOP at the end for races I don't want to hear about.
HI Simon….just return from a short trip outside the USA and first thing I read this morning was your HOPIUM post! Simply BRILLIANT news that made my day! As always, you help me keep the faith that all the hard work is so needed but also so effective in keeping TFG and his like from winning. The forces in the media play so much into their hand and the daily outrageous MAGA actions make it depressing and overwhelming to keep up the fight sometimes…Big Kudos to you and all you are doing to keep truth and positive info out there and again confirming that, despite the tough battle , the good guys can and will win …so now is the moment to go full throttle!!!! xxG
Thanks, Simon. I just sent Reuben a donation. My 2nd for him. Win strong, Dems!
Just sent Ruben Gallego a few more bucks, now back to postcards as I wait for “The View” to come on. FYI, I believe in addition to the that, Harris will be on Howard Stern, and Late Show with Colbert today. Normally don’t watch any of those, but I sure will today! 😊😎😄
Wow. This NYT story just hit. Does this seem like treasonous activity to any of you? https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/politics/trump-putin-woodward-book.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Qk4.c64r.H1Crm06mFgW4&smid=url-share
Trump is a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon.
And regardless of when they appear, how many of them there are or what these stories say, you keep us focused on the right issues Simon. I will say, even as a former journalist who once covered DC, this one took my breath away for a sec.
Hi Paul, As Simon says repeatedly, he is a traitor - and a rapist, fraudster and felon. Not to mention a pathological liar of course. I hope that sufficient Republicans consider these traits sufficiently disqualifying to vote for Harris/Walz.
Just unbelievable. Of course he can't be prosecuted for interfering in foreign policy as an ex-POTUS because SCOTUS is utterly compromised as well. Incredible time in US history. WORK WORK WORK to defeat this MAGA scourge.