Harris Up 3 In New NYT Poll, The Country Is Better Off, Trump And Musk Are Depraved, Dangerous Madmen

Calling, Postcarding For Sue Altman Thur 715pm/Welcome New Subscribers!

Happy Tuesday all. We’ve had some pretty shitty NYT polls this year so let us celebrate their new national poll which has Vice President Harris up 3, 49%-46%. This is 3 points higher than their last poll and her largest lead in the NYT poll since she became our candidate. Good morning everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here are the latest national polls we’ve received from non-red wave pollsters, Harris-Walz (2 way head to heads, likely voters when available):

• 51%-45% (+6) Morning Consult (gained a pt since last week)

• 49%-44% (+5) Susquehanna

• 50%-46% (+4) Big Village

• 49%-45% (+4) Research Co.

• 49%-46% (+3) TIPP/Issues and Insights (TIPP polls for rw groups)

• 49%-46% (+3) Data For Progress

• 49%-46% (+3) Economist/YouGov

• 49%-46% (+3) NYT/Siena

• 50%-48% (+2) NPR/Marist

• 48%-46% (+2) Redfield & Wilton

• 47%-45% (+2) Reuters/Ipsos

• 48%-47% (+1) Yahoo/YouGov (this list has been updated since posting)

We also got a new Detroit News poll showing Harris up 3 in Michigan, 47%-44%, a new St. Anselm’s poll showing her up 7 in NH, 51%-44%, and a new poll in VA showing her up 11, 52%-41%. Remember it was just a few months ago that the Trump campaign told us Virginia was in play.

As I’ve been writing to you polling data continues to be remarkably consistent and stable. The 538 national national polling average is now 48.5%-45.9% (+2.6), very similar to many of these polls above (to account for red wave polls in 538’s averages I toss an extra point into the averages for Dems). The Vice President has a 2-3-4 point lead in national polling, and is closer to 270 in the battleground states. Senate polling is holding, Tester remains a toss-up and House Ds are optimistic about flipping the chamber. It remains a close and competitive election, too close, my friends. As I like to say we are winning the election, but have not won it yet. Winning the election is up to us and dependent on the work we do in the final four weeks of the election.

Early voting is expanding to many more states this week and we will start getting lots more data about the 2024 election. While it is still early in the early vote, what we have so far from TargetEarly is encouraging. In 2020 at this point we had an 18 point lead in the early vote. Today it is 25 points.

Recall that a recent NBC News poll found Democrats with a 26 point lead (61%-35%) among those saying they intended to vote early. It’s very similar to the results we are seeing so far.

I also love this stat. So far Democratic Super Voters, those who vote the most and the ones we’ve been encouraging to Vote on Day 1, are voting in much higher percentages than either 2020 or 2022 at this point. Hard core Dems are bringing the intensity we need baby! For when Super Dems vote early, really early, it allows campaigns to start targeting lower propensity voters earlier, increasing our overall turnout and making it far more likely we win.

If you haven’t seen it be sure to read my post from yesterday reporting on GOP concerns about their ability to compete in the early vote this year. I will start going deeper into the this data once we have more data to look at it. It is still very early. A reminder to look at the percentages, not the raw votes. 2020 was COVID, and it is likely - not guaranteed - that we see large numbers of people return to Election Day voting this year. So we may see a smaller early vote this year.

The bottom line everyone - we need to have a good day, every day, until Election Day. It is critical you take concrete steps every day to help us win. Donate, spread the good word about Voting on Day 1, volunteer for Harris-Walz or our Winning The House campaign. Whatever you do realize that if we do the work we can win this election. It is critical that all of us are doing something to advance our cause every day, and that we all leave it out there on the playing field, together. Without the Presidential debates, we have to help the VP create and maintain the intensity we need to win. That’s why she and Governor Walz are on their big media blitz this week - we have to keep talking to voters, keep people engaged, keep pushing the early vote.

One thing I think about every morning is that some number of those 80 million postcards will be hitting households across the battlegrounds today. These individualized messages of joy, of hope, of love of country are going to matter my friends, and I am so grateful to those of who have participated in this historic grassroots effort.

The Country Is Better Off Today, Far Far Better Off - As enter the last four weeks of this critical election, I want to encourage all of you to be loud and proud about the accomplishments of the Biden-Harris Administration and our party more broadly. I have a 30 minute presentation about how much better America does when Democrats are in power called “With Democrats, Things Get Better.” You may want to check it out to remind yourself of both the greatness and goodness of the remarkable party we are all part of, and use it to provide some of the fuel you need to close strong.

I’m sending along a passage from my Friday post, which has data and understandings we need to ground ourselves in daily as the tornado of right wing disinfo and bullshit intensifies:

Another Smokin’ Jobs Report - 254,000 jobs were added in September, blowing past expectations. Revisions from the previous two months added another 72,000 jobs, so 326,000 new jobs in total, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. As a nation we should be very proud of how we came through the challenges of the economic carnage Trump left us, as today the American economy is without question the strongest advanced economy in the world, and one of the strongest in my lifetime.

I know we talk a lot about inflation, but I think we continue to overlook the significance of having such a low unemployment rate for so long. Here is how FDR talked about the dangers of unemployment (from his DC based Memorial). It is a sentiment I think about literally every day:

“No country, however rich, can afford the waste of its human resources. Demoralization caused by vast unemployment is our greatest extravagance. Morally, it is the greatest menace to our social order.”

Under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris we’ve had the longest period of low unemployment in a peacetime American economy since WWII and the best job market since the 1960s. The stock market is breaking records. GDP growth has been 3% over 3 years. We have the lowest uninsured rate in American history. The rate of formation of new businesses is at an all time high. Wage growth has been running ahead of inflation for some time now. The battle against inflation has been won. Gas prices have been down. The deficit is lower. Crime is down. Drug overdoses are down. Obesity is down. The flows to the border today are lower than at the end of Trump’s Presidency. We passed the first bi-partisan gun safety bill in 30 years. Domestic oil, gas, renewable production are higher than they’ve ever been and we are more energy independent today than we’ve been in decades. The three big Biden-Harris investment bills will be creating jobs and opportunities for American workers for decades to come, while accelerating the energy transition needed to keep the planet from warming.

Let’s revisit the core data point and slide from my With Dems presentation, the one Bill Clinton referred to in his Convention speech. Since 1989 and this new age of globalization began, 52 million jobs have been created in America. 50 million, 96%, basically all of them, have come under Democratic Presidents:

Meanwhile, Trump And Musk = Depraved Madmen - Enjoy 60 Minutes’ roasting of big blubbery babyman Trump for pulling out of their scheduled interview. He is the first Presidential candidate to have not sat down for a 60 Minutes interview in over 50 years. Because Trump is weak, not strong.

Watch this depraved clip of Elon Musk talking to his fellow Russian frontman Tucker Carlson about the Vice President:

We just have to go work harder in these next few weeks than anything we have worked on.

The Hopium Community Is Doing More, A Whole Lot More, and Worrying Less, A Whole Lot Less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - We are in October now. Millions of people have already voted. Millions of postcards have begun making their important journey. Without another Presidential debate in the final month our ticket needs other ways to keep generating intensity and interest. That’s why your work, your money, your working your networks matters more than usual. For we have to become the intensity makers. We have to keep talking to voters. We have to keep bringing it, everyday, and help Democrats across the country close strong.

My one ask today - donate to Ruben Gallego. Early voting begins in Arizona this week, the Presidential is close, Ruben leads, we have two House pick up opportunities and flipping both state legislative chambers is within our grasp. Ruben has his first debate with Kari Lake tomorrow - let’s send Ruben some Hopium love!

Harris-Walz For President - $1,181,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel

Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:

• North Carolina - $709,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We need to keep stepping up for the people of North Carolina!!!!!!

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $429,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $238,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!

Winning The House - There are five ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:

• Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,485,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates

• Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $64,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.

• Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!

• Winning The House Thursdays - This week we gather for Sue Altman (NJ-07), Thursday, at 715pm ET. Register here to postcard or call for Sue. Watch my wonderful interview with her. She is a very impressive candidate! We had a big crowd last Thursday for Adam Gray and together we’ve written over 80,000 postcards so far for our 15 candidates - thank you all!

Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego. If you want to help defeat Deb Fischer in Nebraska give to the great Nebraska Democratic Party today!

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $429,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Montana/Jon Tester - $113,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve blown through our $100,00 goal and are now shooting for $200,000!

• Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $78,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $238,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!

Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 121,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon