Happy Friday all. We are having another good week. Polling remains encouraging. Big guns are rallying for our ticket. Folks are volunteering, donating, working it. The dockworker’s strike has been postponed. Relief and aid are flowing to the people displaced by Helene. The US government dropped a heavy set of charges on the rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon. We got a smokin’ jobs report and the really good economic news just keeps coming. Let’s get to it:
Another Smokin’ Jobs Report - 254,000 jobs were added in September, blowing past expectations. Revisions from the previous two months added another 72,000 jobs, so 326,000 new jobs in total, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. As a nation we should be very proud of how we came through the challenges of the economic carnage Trump left us, as today the American economy is without question the strongest advanced economy in the world, and one of the strongest in my lifetime.
I know we talk a lot about inflation, but I think we continue to overlook the significance of having such a low unemployment rate for so long. Here is how FDR talked about the dangers of unemployment (from his DC based Memorial). It is a sentiment I think about literally every day:
No country, however rich, can afford the waste of its human resources. Demoralization caused by vast unemployment is our greatest extravagance. Morally, it is the greatest menace to our social order.
Under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris we’ve had the longest period of low unemployment in a peacetime American economy since WWII and the best job market since the 1960s. The stock market is breaking records. GDP growth has been 3% over 3 years. We have the lowest uninsured rate in American history. The rate of formation of new businesses is at an all time high. Wage growth has been running ahead of inflation for some time now. The battle against inflation has been won. Gas prices have been down. The deficit is lower. Crime is down. Drug overdoses are down. Obesity is down. The flows to the border today are lower than at the end of Trump’s Presidency. We passed the first bi-partisan gun safety bill in 30 years. Domestic oil, gas, renewable production are higher than they’ve ever been and we are more energy independent today than we’ve been in decades. The three big Biden-Harris investment bills will be creating jobs and opportunities for American workers for decades to come, while accelerating the energy transition needed to keep the planet from warming.
America is better off today due to the Biden-Harris Administration. Far, far better off. Despite the rancor, the extremism, the nihilism of MAGA the nation has made remarkable progress in the past four years. And truly, the heroes of this story are the American people themselves. For in a time of enormous challenge they’ve just put their heads down and gone to work. They’ve been building, innovating, making stuff happen. The American can-do spirit is alive and well in Biden-Harris America, and it is glorious to see. FDR would be very, very pleased.
Closing Strong With Jane Kleeb, Chair Of The Nebraska Democratic Party - Yesterday Tara and I sat down with our friend Jane Kleeb, the inspiring leader of Nebraska Dems. Our interview is above. Do watch, share and delight in knowing that we have played a major role in giving NE Dems a serious chance to win the blue dot, flip the NE-2 House seat blue and take out an incumbent Republican Senator. Jane also talks about how party building really works - investment and grind over time, long term goals, gains every two years. It is how we have transformed states like AZ, GA and WI, how Anderson Clayton is transforming NC, and how Jane and other NE Dems have created the opportunity for us to do something deeply meaningful in Nebraska this year.
Our full, new Closing Strong episode will be out later this morning and can be found on the Closing Strong YouTube channel. And donate to the Nebraska Dems today. They have earned our support, and respect, my friends. Bring it home Jane!!!!!!!!!!
Liz Cheney, The Boss, Obama Rally For Harris-Walz - I hope you will watch Liz Cheney’s compelling speech in the coming days. As Hopium regulars know I’ve long argued this was going to be a big deal, and it is. Proud to have her on our team.
We got word this morning that Barack Obama will be hitting the trail for Harris-Walz now. From Politico this am:
The former president will appear Thursday at an event in the Pittsburgh area, the start of what will be part of a swing-state “blitz” through Election Day, said a senior campaign official, granted anonymity to discuss the schedule ahead of the announcement.
Bruce Springsteen released this video yesterday:
LFG people!
We Are Getting Real Early Vote Data Now - Our friend Tom Bonier’s TargetSmart has launched their annual public website tracking the early vote, TargetEarly. Here is how the early vote is shaping up across the country so far:
I will be exploring the early vote data and be reporting back to you what I see here at Hopium. A few things to keep in mind as we head deeper into the early vote: 1) This data tells us who has voted not how they voted. For sake of ease assume partisans vote for their candidates (more on this in the coming days). The comparison is to this day - 33 days out - in 2020 and 2022, not against the final vote. The data in the site will lag by a day or so as it takes him to ingest all this data and match it to the TargetSmart voter file. 2) 2020 was COVID. It is likely that less people vote early this time, but we will see. 3) Republicans are likely to do better in the early vote this time as after their terrible early vote performance in the last two elections they are making more of an effort this year. 4) TargetEarly uses something called “modeled partisanship” to help us make reasonable guesses based on vote history for those states that do not register people by party. 5) Try to not over-analyze the data. I used this site everyday in 2022 to help drive my understanding of the election. Part of what I will be doing each day, as I do with polling and other electoral data, is wade through all this and try to present to you what is most important. A lot of states start voting early next week so we are going to be getting a lot of data very soon, and will start learning much more about the election.
Here is one other fun early stat - super Dems are voting on Day 1 people! This chart shows how what we call “Prime Dems” and what TargetEarly calls “Super Dems” - those who vote the most - are voting so far.
Remember all these Super Dems are now off the GOTV rolls in these states allowing the campaigns to already begin targeting lower propensity voters which will create more Dems and drive up our overall turnout - the goal of our Vote on Day 1 strategy.
It is important that everyone reading this commit to Vote on Day 1 when early voting begins in your state. This is another way to help us win this year. Voting early takes you off the GOTV rolls in your state, allowing our campaigns to move on and start targeting lower propensity voters earlier, which will increase turnout. This is what we’ve been doing in our Winning The House Thursdays series - calling and postcarding Super Dems and asking them to vote early, Vote on Day 1. We need to keep spreading the word through out networks on how voting early, on Day 1, is another way to help us win.
More on The 2024 Election From Hopium:
New Simon talks - my latest take on the 2024 election recorded Wednesday night, and a new talk on the importance of voting on Day 1 and winning it in October
80 million postcards have begun their journey to voters in battleground districts and states - amazing stuff all!
4 new electoral trends that are making me even more optimistic
No red waving 2024 please - it’s time we talk about all these right-aligned polls in the polling averages
My reflections on how central lying and invention - eating cats and dogs - has become to the modern American right and the 2024 campaign
Watch Vice President Harris’s big economic speech, her new speech on the border and immigration, and her terrific interview with Stephanie Ruhle
We now know that Trump’s abortion bans are killing women
The Hopium Community Is Doing More, A Whole Lot More, and Worrying Less, A Whole Lot Less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Friends, you are incredible. When called, you answered. In the last 2 days before the filing deadline we raised over $500,000 for our candidate and state parties, and over $1m in the past week. As you will see below we are nearing on our October 31 targets right now. Honestly, when I set these new goals I thought they would be stretch goals. But here we are, with a month to go, clearly on track to hit these ambitious goals and together make a serious difference this election cycle. Note that we hit $100,000 raised for Jon Tester in just a few weeks - thank you all!
We are in October now. Millions of postcards have begun making their important journey. Without another Presidential debate in the final six weeks our ticket needs other ways to keep generating intensity and interest. That’s why your work, your money, your working your networks matters more than usual. For we have to become the intensity makers. We have to keep talking to voters. We are have to keep bringing it, everyday, as we’ve been doing in these final six weeks. For when we fight, peeps, we win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Harris-Walz For President - $1,149,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel
Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:
North Carolina - $697,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We need to keep stepping up for the people of North Carolina!!!!!!
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $423,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $223,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!
Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:
Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,445,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates
Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $61,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.
Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here. Let’s do this people!
Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego:
Montana/Jon Tester - $102,000 raised, $200,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve blown through our $100,00 goal and are now shooting for $200,000!
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $71,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $423,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $223,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!
Ways you can do even more
Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting has now begun across the country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats!
Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.
Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 120,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
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