Why I Am Optimistic We Will Win (New Video), Liz Cheney To Campaign W/VP Harris, Trump Is A Rapist, Fraudster, Traitor, And 34 Times Felon

Tonight at 715pm ET - Call, Postcard Tonight For Adam Gray (CA-13) - Join Us!

Happy Thursday all. We are having another good week my friends. I got together with Hopium paid subscribers yesterday afternoon and send along a recording of my opening remarks and Q and A session in the video above. In my talk I offer my latest take on the election and spell out why I am optimistic we can win this November. Enjoy all and feel free to share with others you think would benefit from a bit of Hopium in the coming days.

Today, we are going to see a remarkable campaign event - Liz Cheney and Vice President Harris are heading to Ripon, Wisconsin, the birthplace of the Republican Party.

The focus of this event will certainly be the descent of the GOP from its Lincoln and Reagan roots to the far-right, fascist party it is today, something made more urgent by Jack Smith’s new J6 filing and JD Vance’s infamous debate performance Tuesday night. Here is the opening passage from the Special Counsel’s new filing:

IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA UNITED STATES OF AMERICA v. DONALD J. TRUMP, Defendant. * * * * * * * * CRIMINAL NO. 23-cr-257 (TSC) GOVERNMENT’S MOTION FOR IMMUNITY DETERMINATIONS

The defendant asserts that he is immune from prosecution for his criminal scheme to overturn the 2020 presidential election because, he claims, it entailed official conduct. Not so. Although the defendant was the incumbent President during the charged conspiracies, his scheme was fundamentally a private one. Working with a team of private co-conspirators, the defendant acted as a candidate when he pursued multiple criminal means to disrupt, through fraud and deceit, the government function by which votes are collected and counted—a function in which the defendant, as President, had no official role. In Trump v. United States, 144 S. Ct. 2312 (2024), the Supreme Court held that presidents are immune from prosecution for certain official conduct— including the defendant’s use of the Justice Department in furtherance of his scheme, as was alleged in the original indictment—and remanded to this Court to determine whether the remaining allegations against the defendant are immunized. The answer to that question is no. This motion provides a comprehensive account of the defendant’s private criminal conduct; sets forth the legal framework created by Trump for resolving immunity claims; applies that framework to establish that none of the defendant’s charged conduct is immunized because it either was unofficial or any presumptive immunity is rebutted; and requests the relief the Government seeks, which is, at bottom, this: that the Court determine that the defendant must stand trial for his private crimes as would any other citizen.

The Republican nominee is a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon. He is an extremist, racist, misogynist and xenophobe. He is unfit, unwell and now clearly untethered. He wants to end the global economic system which has made us prosperous; end the Western Alliance which has kept us safe; and end American democracy which has kept us free.

We are not going to let this man, who has done these things and believes these things, win, are we?

Here is video of the Vice President serving meals to Georgians recovering from Helene:

Election, Polling Update - The polls taken after the VP debate found the debate a draw, with half of voters who watched believing either Vance or Walz had won. Based on this data, below, however, I think we have to view the debate as a win for us. Our candidate is just so much better liked, hitting an astonishing 60% in the CNN poll. And I as wrote yesterday, most importantly, the fascists failed to fundamentally alter the trajectory of an election they are losing. They needed a win and did not get one.

As I wrote in my polling deep dive on Tuesday, the polls continue to be remarkably consistent and stable. We are up 3-4-5 points nationally, and are in better shape in the battlegrounds, closer to 270. The two weekly tracking polls I follow closely showed no movement this week - Morning Consult came in at +5 Harris, Economist/YouGov +3. A new NY Post poll found Harris up 4, 51-47, and a new Susquehanna poll had her up 5, 49-44. These results are very similar to the data we’ve been seeing since the debate.

A new high quality Marquette University poll has the VP up 4 in Wisconsin, 52-48, unchanged since the early September. The Cook Report battleground polls released yesterday I think capture where the race is now, close and competitive, with us ahead by a bit (all polls on 538):

While the polling has been remarkably stable, there have been new developments in the election. The blue dot remaining the blue dot and Mark Robinson’s epic meltdown in North Carolina make it more likely we win. Helene has created new uncertainty and challenges in North Carolina and Georgia (give to the NCDP today!). Tester had a really good debate performance this week and Bernie Moreno has been hurt by an ugly video that has surfaced in Ohio. The Jack Smith filing will matter, as it becomes another powerful reason for pro-democracy Republicans and independents to abandon criminal defendant Trump. Senate Rs have cancelled all their independent expenditure ads, and are adopting a risky new ad strategy that should be understood as something more desperate than strategic.

The thing that is very front of mind me now is how unusual these last 30+ days are going to be. Every Presidential election in recent decades has ended with Presidential debates in October, events that allow the candidates to tell their stories to large numbers of people and bring the election to voters in a powerful and compelling way. Because of the cowardice of a diminished Trump, and an awareness of how unpopular and extreme he and their agenda is, we will not have October Presidential debates this time. What that means, practically, is that the VP and Democrats across the country need us, our passion, our hard work, our money, our postcards, our canvassing, our texting and calling, more than ever. Our role in this election has gotten bigger, more important. We need to use the immense, latent power of the Democratic grassroots to together do a big and heavy lift in the home stretch, and help bring this election and politics of joy to the American people.

Our work in these final days is really going to matter, peeps.

Come Work For Adam Gray (CA-13) Tonight at 715 pm ET - Tonight we are getting together for Adam Gray (CA-13) starting at 715pm ET and ending at 9pm (note new start time - getting more work in). Register here, and learn more about postcarding, phonebanking and our Winning The House Thursdays series here. To prep for our session tonight watch my interview with Adam, check out his website and consider donating to him or all 15 of our House candidates today. We had our biggest group so far last week - let’s make this one even bigger!

More on 2024:

  • My reflections on how central lying and invention - eating cats and dogs - has become to the modern American right and the 2024 campaign

Closing Strong With Tara McGowan and COURIER Newsroom - A new episode of Closing Strong has begun to drop. So far we’ve released a great conversation with me and Tara about the election, the VP debate, and their illiberal poisoning of our discourse. The full episode comes out tomorrow that will include a new interview with Nebraska Dem Chair Jane Kleb. If you need more head to the Closing Strong YouTube page where you can catch our recent interviews with Harris-Walz Campaign Manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton, WI Dem Chair Ben Wikler, Ruben Gallego and much much more. I hope you are enjoying this series. I feel like we are producing high-quality content in a new and compelling format. And it has been a lot of fun too!

Hopium Community Is Doing More, A Whole Lot More, and Worrying A Whole Lot Less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Friends, you are incredible. When called, you answered. In the last 2 days before the filing deadline we raised over $500,000 for our candidate and state parties, and over $1m in the past week. As you will see below we are nearing on our October 31 targets right now. Honestly, when I set these new goals I thought they would be stretch goals. But here we are, with a month to go, clearly on track to hit these ambitious goals and together make a serious difference this election cycle. Note that we hit $100,000 raised for Jon Tester in just a few weeks - thank you all!

We are in October now. Millions of postcards have begun making their important journey. Without another Presidential debate in the final six weeks our ticket needs other ways to keep generating intensity and interest. That’s why your work, your money, your working your networks matters more than usual. For we have to become the intensity makers. We have to keep talking to voters. We are have to keep bringing it, everyday, as we’ve been doing in these final six weeks. For when we fight, peeps, we win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Harris-Walz For President - $1,146,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel

Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:

  • North Carolina - $687,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton. We need to keep stepping up for the people of North Carolina!!!!!!

  • Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $421,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

  • Nebraska/Blue Dot - $220,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb. Nebraska has become very important to us this year - please consider donating today!

Winning The House - There are four ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:

Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego:

Ways you can do even more

  • Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting has now begun across the country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Promote I Will Vote to help people check their registration status and register to vote. There are many weeks of voter registration left. Let’s keep making more Democrats!

  • Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.

Grow and Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing! Paid subscribers help keep most of our content free for the 120,000 strong in our community down the home stretch!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon

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