It is hard to confirm anything that isn't concrete. Also I think it said that Mark guy was reporting with Newsmax, which is a source that is quite hard to trust
I’m as pro “step-aside” as they come but I put very little stock in the Helperin “report” I do believe Biden is going to step aside soon, but would be very surprised by the rest.
Sounds like something Russia would make up it's so bad. My goodness what a terrible plan. What ya think Simon? Some "wild speculation" here or is it accurate enough to leave up?
There is going to be a lot of chaos makers in the coming weeks - like that ridiculous Emerson poll today - and we cannot get spooked by any one poll, any one news account, any one statement. What MAGA and Russia want as the intelligence community calls it is to "sow discord." They want us fighting, afraid, freaking out - don't do it. Be strong, recognize you an actor in a global fight between freedom and dominion as I call it in my talks, and choose freedom, optimism, love of country. When we fight, when we express anger, negative sentiment, they win. More than anything else they want us fighting with one another, angry, trashing members of our own team. My advice - don't do it. Talk about them. Promote the good things Joe Biden and the Democrats have done. Rise above. Be smart. Play to win. Take responsibility for the sentiment you are putting out in the world and let's go win this thing, together.
Something I’ve been bringing up to a lot of people panicking over these outliers polls indicating catastrophe for Biden; these have been popping up periodically this entire election cycle from what I recall, like back in spring there was a NYT poll showing Trump ahead by 14 points or something, and everyone was kind of freaking out over it (it was actually that incident which led me to this blog, and finding out that, not only was said poll *very* suspect, but that the media was conspicuously not reporting on polling that was more favorable to Biden), so this is not even something new post-debate.
I took statistics in college, and learned both that *most* people don’t understand statistics as well as they think they do, but also that it’s very common for statistical data to appear to show trends that aren’t really there, either by happenstance flaws in how the data that was collected, or by intentional weighting of certain data. Political polling is complicated and especially prone to biased or flawed collection, as I know you’re all too familiar with. From my understanding, two of the main methods by which data is collected for these weekly opinion polls right now are phone surveys via landline, and online opt-in surveys, both of which are known to have certain endemic biases (there was a Pew Research study published early this year finding that online opt-in surveys are very biased toward young people with right-leaning political views, as well as people who lie and only do the surveys for money—thus not taking them very seriously), so any data these surveys find has to be carefully interpreted with a grain of salt and in the broader context.
At this point, if I see an isolated poll showing *either* candidate suddenly way further ahead or behind where they were in polls from a week ago, I don’t really think much of it unless it’s clearly part of a larger pattern (which thus far these kind of polls haven’t been to my knowledge).
Yes and I thought here at Hopium we are not relying on polling as the main conveyer of election status, my main attraction to this community's ideology..but lately I'm hearing a reliance of Biden's strength or weakness based on polls..🤦♂️
P.S. 🤫
193/213 House Dems, 45/47 Dem Senators, and all 34 Dem Gov support Biden and Hillary and Bill and others are helping him fundraise!
Well said. The media throws polls around like batting averages and the collection is so haphazard, I don’t think you can trust most of these polls. The loss of land lines has thrown the polls all off. And I think many actors are thrilled with these skewed results, like Paul Manafort.
Yes! Dr. Ruth Ben-Ghiat has been saying this, too. Discord is what they want bc they want people to STOP CARING. Don't care if anything is true, verifiable, give up on the news, on our president, the government, each other. Divide and conquer - it's an old, old playbook. It's how authoritarian regimes prosper. Don't share info unless you have done what we in the info literacy community (I'm in higher ed) call lateral reading - pause, check to see if any other TRUSTED source is reporting the story with verifiable facts. If not, do not share and move on. I teach college students this stuff every day. We are smart people - we can do this.
Blake, I've taken this post down because it is inflammatory and seems far-fetched. Let's be patient and see what the President and his team say, not some discredited journalist looking to get back into the game.
Since Ruben Gallego is one of our projects, I was wondering how he's faring in the polls? A few recent ones have Lake gaining or ahead, but they were so nakedly partisan that I'm assuming Simon laughed them out of the office.
Arizona is far from a blue state, but Ruben is a great candidate Kari Lake is far from being a not-awful person. Despite the late start, I figured Ruben had the advantage here.
Jason, so far the polls mostly show Ruben beating Lake, but we can not for one second let up. Ruben came and spoke to us here. He's an amazing candidate and Arizona is lucky to have a man like him running for the Senate.
A few months ago I saw a Republican interviewed on TV (don't remember who) and he referred to Kari Lake as "Governor Lake." Scary that people think she ever held that office.
I sure don't doubt that. But, to that befuddled voter's credit, Lake ran around the state caterwauling that she was the rightful Governor for two years after she lost. These are confusing days!
Copying in my comment from last night because I posted it late.
Hi Simon. I have a few thoughts I wanted to share with you.
First, and most important, imo we NEED a drop dead date after which all talk of dropping Biden ends. That date needs to be soon too, like in the next week or two. Heck, make it July 31 if that makes sense. If Biden does drop out, fine, but it has to happen ASAP if it's going to happen. And if it's not going to happen, then enough is enough with the infighting.
If I had a platform like you do, I would make and strictly enforce this drop dead date for this discussion, preferably based on talks with other Dems. If I were a Dem who was wavering on Biden but wants to defeat Trump first and foremost, I would set such a date for myself. We can have a vigorous debate, but the talk needs to turn towards defeating Trump. Whatever the date is, we can have a vigorous and thorough discussion before then. But after that, if Biden is still in, all comments suggesting Biden can't win or should drop get removed and repeat offenses get banned.
I'll be upfront and say I'm on team keep Biden. I won't be overly sad if it goes the other way, but I also think you absolutely do not dump a candidate who has over 50% chance of winning according to 538. (edit - and who won 90+% of the vote in the primaries! The disrespect to the primary voters!) Dumping a candidate is extremely risky. The only way it makes sense in this situation is if Biden physically isn't up for the campaign. But that's a discussion between Biden, his physician, and his closest advisors. If he thinks he can handle it, I think he should stay in.
I appreciate your open approach. I too will accept what democrats decide because honestly they've been doing the hard work of supporting and dealing daily with these Mad Maga humans. We will get it mostly right, pull together and do this. Americans are not blind, and even the worst mostly want peace and justice, we just don't agree at the moment on how it will happen.
Agree with both your points. I’m very very super duper glad that this discussion is happening in July, and mid-July at that - this is the time of year when a lot of people drop everything and go on vacation. Also there does have to be a resolution. Whatever is decided - and I’m going to go with “Joe Biden and others who know a lot better than me will decide” - I just want it to end, so we can get on with the business of winning.
The drop dead date is August 2nd. That's when the roll call will be held, as planned back in May to avoid relying on the Ohio Republican governor and legislature to keep their word WRT letting the Democratic nominee on the ballot. (The law they passed is a poison pill that doesn't take effect until September.)
I agree! It is so discouraging hearing the media talk about how this or that leader feels Biden should drop out because they think he might not be able to beat Trump. There are no guarantees that any candidate can, but Biden is doing a great job and has a fantastic record! I personally feel that no other candidate is ready to step up, especially at this very late date. Good grief, all this panicked handwringing is embarrassing our party. Let’s stick together and stand behind Biden and win this thing!
And it is discouraging us volunteers. Some people have stepped away from reading Hopium Chronicles because of it. Hopefully they are still doing GOTV work.
Totally with you on Biden. 100%. "a discussion between Biden, his physician, and his closest advisors. If he thinks he can handle it, I think he should stay in". ....but that is what we all think!... If Biden can handle it....it just looks very scary like he can't. He's not punching back. When someone asks him a question he's defensive. Yes, yes he is a great great President, the most consequential in my lifetime -- from JFK on! And my 78 year old brother agrees. And we agree on very little. We both agree, he is a historic figure who could become in the history books not only saving Democracy but the 2nd Geo. Washington where kings said only a great man could step away from power for the good of the country. And anyway, why can't Biden stay on as International Advisor to Harris? The area he loves the most.
Fwiw I think that's a perfectly reasonable opinion! In my mind the deal is, if you end up being right and Biden drops out, I'll drop the matter and support Kamala Harris. If I end up being right and he stays in, I hope you can drop the matter too and support him. Whichever one it is, I really hope we're not still talking about this in 3 weeks!
I disagree that "he's not punching back." Have you watched his rally speeches in the past few weeks? His informal interactions with campaign volunteers in Pennsylvania? His post-NATO press conference? The interview he did with Lester Holt? He sure punched back at Lester about the media for not covering what matters -- the issues. And what you call "defensive," I call "punching back." Sometimes I get the impression that people are only watching what they want to see.
I think the President is under so much scrutiny that no matter what he does, he is criticized. Too timid. Too Defensive. Too Weak. Too Tired. Too much teleprompter. Can't read a teleprompter - oh wait that's Trump but he gets a pass. I hope they make a decision soon and we all get on board. My guess is that the powers that be are considering all the options and logistics involved. At least I hope so.
I think Biden’s nomination (which has been moved up to the start of August because of the ballot SNAFU in Ohio) makes the most sense as such a date; obviously if he’s confirmed as the nominee no further discussion really makes sense.
Thus, we will know for certain very soon what’s going to happen (personally, I’ll be very surprised if Biden steps aside).
I’ll admit I’ve gone back and forth on the whole thing somewhat, but I’ve generally come to the conclusion that Biden resigning and having Harris become the candidate would come with *a lot* of its own trials and tribulations that it seems few want to realistically discuss (ie legal challenges, state ballot issues, etc.), and would just never be the silver bullet people seem to want it to be, and imho passing Harris over for a totally new candidate/brokered convention is an *immensely* foolish idea that I have never supported, and frankly it has been alarming to me to see many “respectable” public figures nearly twice my age or older (I’m in my early 30s) act so childishly naive about the whole process of replacing Biden this late in the race, just because they want their personal dream candidate to be president.
I say this as a registered independent with further left political views (thus, not actually a Democrat); overall, I actually lean toward thinking Biden staying in is the safer option, unbelievable to some as that may seem right now, I keep seeing people like Allan Lichtman and that guy someone posted a talk in here from the other day (I forget his name unfortunately, Chris Bouzer maybe?), who have a *very* good track record predicting the outcome of elections, saying that Biden staying in is the better path forward, and I’m increasingly inclined to agree with them.
I think right now the million dollar question is whether or not the party can pull itself together before November, and present a united front against MAGA fascism, as I’m inclined to believe that the optics of a party in chaos and at each other’s throats (which, as a sort of outsider looking, is what I see with the DNC right now) is probably going to be a worse deterrent for independents and anti-Trump republicans than the optics of Biden being old are.
A lot of people are *terrified* of Project 2025 right now, I know I certainly am as a queer woman, they’re just looking for an institution they can trust to oppose it, but I’ll admit, it can be difficult to have faith in a party that looks like it’s tearing itself apart from the inside because their candidate did terribly in an early first debate.
So yeah, it may surprise some to hear this from someone who isn’t even a registered democrat, but what is desperately needed right now is party unity, and fast. Again referencing that Chris Bouzer guy’s talk (if that is indeed his name, I’m bad with names), disunity and fragmentation in the DNC is a much bigger liability to winning this election than any issue with Biden himself, I wish more people could see that, and I desperately hope they can soon.
We’ve been saying for a while that the fatal flaw for MAGA is it split the GOP apart. If the same happens to us, if we can’t unite the progressives and the liberals and the independents in opposition to Trump and all he stands for because of candidate infighting- we can’t win. So this has to stop. The decision is Biden’s to make, he’s been very clear he’s not dropping out, so the elite donors, pundits, and party leaders need to stop. It’s done.
About 20. So yeah, 90% of primary voters voted for Biden and 90% of D congresspeople are still with Biden.
Now that you've pointed that out, it feeds into my personal pet theory that a lot of the "Biden drop out" is all the same people who already didn't like Biden finding a permission structure to ask for him to drop out. That permissions structure needs to go ASAP assuming Biden is not in fact going to drop out. (and if he is, then that has to happen ASAP)
I think you’re right that a lot of it is just the newest excuse people have found to be critical of Biden, although with the House democrats who want him to drop out, I also think an important factor for many of them is uncertainty about down-ballot races they want to win, as iirc a number of them are in tough contested districts (although I don’t know to what extent this is true of all 20). Even Biden himself acknowledged this, noting that some of them are vulnerable in November and might be trying to hedge their bets.
This is just false. Over 50% of Democrats want the President to step aside. That has been consistent in poll after poll in recent days. When Schumer told the President on Saturday he thought he should step aside he told him he was speaking for the entire Senate Democratic caucus. This is a rough patch for all of us and out of respect for one another we need to be honest and truthful and data-driven.
Do you have numbers for how many people thought Biden should step down before the debate? I'd be interested to see if it actually changed after the debate.
What would be the mechanics if Biden were to step down? I find the idea of anyone other than Kamala Harris becoming the nominee to be rediculous, but what do I know.
I know you're correct. But should we not also ask, in a head-to-head with Trump, what percentage of Dems would vote for Biden, even if they want him to step aside?
Talent agent tactics. Works on some. Strickler is hardly a flack. He's a partner in WME. Regardless of who is at the top of the ticket - they will donate.
We have to do everything we can to remind folks that Donald Trump is a rapist, a 34X-convicted felon, a serial fraudster who steals from charities, a fascist insurrectionist, a deplorable human being who sexualizes his own daughter, a vile racist who demonizes persons of color and immigrants, and a traitor who is actively colluding with enemies and dictators to undermine our democracy.
Social media. Coffee shops. Water coolers. Bumper stickers. Yard signs. etc. WE HAVE TO KEEP TRUMP'S CEILING LOW!
This is what buys us time for Dems to figure things out. I just pray to God that Biden's inner circle is being honest with Biden about the current state of affairs, and especially the polling that hit today. Pray to God.
YES. It will move forward either way, and we all know we need to pull together without fear and anger, and LOVE the way we make things happen when we are motivated by justice, peace and fairness. I've been putting up my own plain little Handmaids Tale warning signs all over town, reminding people to read about Project 2025 and vote. Talking to my kids to get their feedback even if it's not great, because at least then we're talking about it. I am setting up lunches and zooming into Heather Cox Richardson and women's groups instead of doomscrolling. It feels good (and yes sometimes bad) to be alive in this together with you all.
I suspect Trump’s ceiling is unlikely to rise much in the coming months, especially since there’s still likely sentencing for the hush money charges coming up in September (which will be a big reminder to everyone closer to the election, regardless of what the sentence ends up being). It’s just a question of getting Biden (or whoever) up well above his floor.
If you’re talking about the Emerson poll, Simon has already talked in a comment upthread about how that poll is an outlier that we shouldn’t be putting stock into until/unless we have more data pointing in that direction. There was an isolated NYT poll back in March or April that had Trump ahead by something like 14 points, which also suggested Trump had gained voters, but obviously there was something very wrong with their data, sampling, and/or methodology, because no similar results showed up in any other poll from that time (suspiciously, even another poll from NYT barely a week later showed completely different numbers).
I’m not surprised that polling right now is showing Trump in an improved position with regard to Biden, as candidates almost always experience a (usually temporary) polling boost after their party’s convention, and in fact I saw someone in the comments yesterday cautioning everyone about this phenomenon, and not to jump to conclusions because of it.
In any event, I’m going to need to see more reliable data indicating that Trump’s ceiling is in fact rising to any significant, as that just seems highly unlikely right now for several reasons (particularly as it would be the first this has happened since the beginning of this year, more or less), as I said elsewhere, polling data has to be understood in a larger context particularly when it conflicts with other polling data.
Isn’t the 538 poll still showing Biden ahead? I’m suspicious of all the polls at this point. The only ones I trust are the ones Simon refers to here. Also, I like Allan Lichtman. He says polls don’t predict election outcomes, which is true.
As a resident of GA with a grassroots southern perspective, and with your wife working for Biden, please encourage Biden to stay in the race. From our perspective, Biden is non threatening to older and suburban independent voters and the younger voters understand what is at stake. This is no time to undermine our democracy with this destructive hysteria. The grassroots has Biden's back! A mini primary, sends a dismissive message to our AA friends as well! Regardless of what this is about behind the scenes, we must be better than this and Biden deserves our support!
Yes! I'm from the black immigrant community. For us elections are a matter of life or death. Today we learn that maternal deaths exploded in States where abortion is prohibited. Politics is not a beauty pageant contest. Your elected politicians can have the power of life or death over you on various issues. Who do you trust to make the right decision for your life in the Oval Office on these crucial issues? Certainly not DONALD TRUMP and JD VANCE! I 100% trust JOE!
I’m LGBTQ and feel similarly about this being a matter of life or death, like while I personally have the resources to likely *just barely* pull through if Trump were elected (unless the absolute worse case scenario happens, which I’ll leave to everyone’s imagination), a lot of my friends *don’t*, to the point where I honestly worry that some in my circles straight up wouldn’t survive. I live on a little blue island in a sea of blood red, the only liberal metro area in my state, and the state government seems to want to all but exterminate certain communities, so if Trump opens that door, things could get really bad here.
It has been incredibly infuriating and disheartening to see so many people willing to toss my and my community’s well-being aside like garbage because they want some imaginary perfect candidate, or because they fail to understand that a presidency isn’t just one person, and even if Biden were incapable of competently running the country (which I see no clear signs of, being an old man with a speech impediment isn’t inherently an obstacle to being a head of state), he has Harris and many others waiting in the wings (and since Harris is in my mind the only realistic replacement, this all shouldn’t even be a question; for anyone who likes Harris and thinks Biden won’t make it another four years, well you’re in luck, because if Biden can’t lead anymore, guess who becomes president anyway?).
I really don’t know if I’ll ever be able to muster faith in the general population of this country again if they sacrifice my human rights because they refused to vote for an old guy in favor of a slightly younger old guy who’s also an opportunistic wannabe dictator and felon (and who we already know is a disastrously bad president). Like I already lost over three years of my life to the covid pandemic, and it’s like now people want to put the same guy who willingly let it get that bad back into office because an endlessly more capable president who helped to get us *through* said pandemic is old and struggles with words sometimes? Utter insanity.
I honestly have no special words to soothe your anguish. There are so many crucial issues where we know the other side is wrong, but here we are debating the oratory skills and the optics of a competent President. I guess because of the media culture in the USA, elections have been turned into show business or a game (too much political TV drama?). Meanwhile, in real life, "ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES." However, I do believe that the American people usually pull themselves together to do the right thing in crucial moments (even if this can be painfully delayed).
I continue to be concerned about what I’m reading about difficulties within the party. But I’m trying to let go and just focus on what I’m doing to help out now. Maybe be with time to rest this weekend, Biden will arrive at the best solution.
I’ve been thinking about how the Biden campaign could possibly change tack in order to turn a corner on this narrative about his fitness, as clearly their initial approach of stubbornly dismissing the concerns hasn’t landed well, and tbh it might actually help at this point if Biden did another TV interview where he addresses the issue of his stutter head on, explains what it is, how he’s had it his whole life, how he copes with it by sometimes dropping words he struggles on rather than getting stuck on them (which people are misinterpreting as him losing his train of thought), and how it has nothing to with his cognitive abilities or fitness to lead the country. Taking another neurological test and being transparent about it like he agreed to would also help (yes, in an ideal world Trump would take one too, but let’s be real here, that won’t happen). Probably wouldn’t be a silver bullet, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt at this point, either.
I seldom drop a comment because so many others fill the void. There is one very important point to make today: Now we should not put our heads down to work, we should get our chins off our chests and proudly let everyone know we’re going to win. Why? Because the big effort of maga/Trumpists/Christo-fascists is to discourage us and to set us up for their violent reaction when we win. We are on the right side of every issue and the issues are HUGE! We’re out-raising them! Our candidates are decent, sensible people! Heads up and be proud! It is we who are defending American values and we will win in November! That message should permeate the DNC, too!
The more you, and we, win this argument, the safer we all are.
The more our side is expected to win, the more the other side can expect, even conceptualize losing among voters and polls beforehand, the less room they will have for trouble and the less emboldened they will be to make trouble of broad and wide consequence.
That's the spirit of trying to get to 55%, beyond the undeniable policy/governance of the stretch/dream goal of actually getting to 55.
tbh I’ve seen some people talking about the possibility that this election could turn out like a reverse of 2016 (where the democratic candidate seemed to be generally ahead and almost everyone underestimated the republican, right up until Trump won), and I think there might be something to this, in that I think Trump’s campaign delusionally believing that they’re going to “win in a landslide” (unless one specifically cherrypicks the minority of outlier polls showing Trump far ahead right now, there’s no way it’d ever be a “landslide” victory if he won) might actually end up being their achilles heel, as Trump’s base (who we already have evidence tends to consist of less politically-engaged, lower propensity voters) would be less likely to put the effort into actually voting if they think he has the election in the bag anyway (kind of like democrats did with Hillary in 2016), especially in states where their own side has made it harder to vote, while meanwhile Biden voters are intensely motivated by fear.
For the record, this is not an excuse to become complacent, not by any means, but it is something I’ve been thinking about, that MAGA’s own overly-confident rhetoric they’ve been spewing the whole election might end up doing anything but helping them in the end.
Tricia, You make good points! I feel a lot of confidence that we’ll win. I cannot imagine a majority of Americans voting for something as ugly as fascist Trump.
I do realistically think it will be pretty challenging to get a lot of people especially *excited* about Biden as a candidate, but the amount of fear Trump and Project 2025 is creating in people is definitely it’s own kind of motivation, and I can say as a vulnerable minority (and a woman) that it can be a pretty powerful one, we just have to make sure people don’t entirely give in to the fear and start feeling that it’s hopeless either way (which is why the party absolutely *needs* to come together at the convention, rather than throwing in the towel and giving up like a lot of media pundits seem to want to already).
I will say one thing vaguely encouraging; I know a lot of people my age and younger (I’m 33), with similarly progressive or left-wing politics, who in many cases are not avid voters, but are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this election simply because of what’s at stake. We live in a red state where Biden is incredibly unlikely to win (although tbf, there are also some signs Trump wont do as well as usual here this election), but I have to assume if I’m having this experience in my social circles, I’m probably far from the only one.
Also, even if voters aren’t that enthusiastic about Biden himself, there seems to be a lot of energy around down ballot democrats in many of the important swing states (who iirc have been consistently polling well ahead of Biden), and although it is *possible* for Trump to win while both houses of congress go to the democrats (which, while far from an ideal outcome in itself, *would* at least hamper MAGA’s ability to enact some of the worst of Project 2025), but there’s a reason that outcome is so rare, and that’s because it’s overall pretty unlikely someone is going to turn up to the polling booth to vote for democrat congressional candidates, and then not just shrug and throw in a vote for Biden as well, let alone vote for democrats and then vote for *Trump*. Like even if voters aren’t enthusiastic about Biden, it’s hard for me to imagine most democrats or independents dislike him *that* much, especially with everything that’s at stake. The “reverse coattails* effect shouldn’t be dismissed.
Even more significantly, reproductive rights are going to be on the ballot in several integral states (as well as Florida), and referenda on wedge issues have historically driven turnout for parties in the past, even when they had an unpopular candidate (it’s a big part of how GWB won re-election in 2004; the GOP got same-sex marriage on the ballot in swing states, which at the time the GOP—and some democrats—were especially vehemently opposed to, so that boosted turnout on their side), and I don’t think hordes of pissed off young women showing up to vote is going to help Trump much at all.
I agree. I suspect the Republicans are pushing this narrative partly bc their platform is so repulsive to so many people and also so they can say afterwards that the election was “rigged” and challenge the results. It’ll be harder for them to challenge I think if the margins are big enough. They want to use invincibility as a psychological tool. But we will not be cowed by this! We have right on our side and that is what good decent people want.
Both-And instead of Either-Or. We need to both put our heads down to do the work and raise our chins to assert our strength, educate people about the dangers of Project 2025, and engage others to join us!
Right on!! Heads up, not down! Chins off chests! We need to laser focus on canvasing by educating the electorate.
Ads need to improve and be direct around women’s health care rights, not circumstantial pregnancy outliers. I have ad ideas which will get the attention of every female voter of childbearing age, as well as their mothers and grandmothers.
Many other platform issues to address, and if we stick with the top three, or four, and hammer them home with intention and truth-we’ll win these battles by sheer determination.
REALITY…more funds are needed! Create the EMUSK challenge by establishing a massive donation campaign with the goal of 50+ million people donating $1+ every week for the next 10 weeks. Make it a raffle for OUR (god’s) sake!!!
With $$$$$ comes attention getting billboards on every major corridor across the nation. Effective, stunning, show stopping media ads everywhere like white on rice baby.
Simon Rosenberg, can you help with this additional fund raising campaign and strategies to bullhorn American left, right, and center?
Passion, purpose, intention and fury is SEXY.
Thank you Simon for everything you do everyday!! YOU ROCK!!
Powerful ad, powerful new PAC. So appreciate your sharing these, Simon.
I completely support Biden if he chooses to continue. IF he himself decides to step aside, I would be all in on a Harris/ Mark Kelly ticket. It checks all the boxes.
And his relationship with Gabby brings tears to my eyes in this photo and is worth 1 million pro-Dem votes at least -
As @DavidPepper just Tweeted, "Tonight is the first time in America’s history that any party will nominate a convicted felon as their candidate for president — and we’re over here litigating our family business via reporter half-leak tweets.
Thanks Simon. George Conway and his organization sounds great. Fighting back with some hard hitting stuff. It is so upsetting that top Democrats do not have a transparent pick and transparent plan, just flinging poo. Biden deserves the respect of all Democrats. I can’t believe we’re here.
We do have a transparent plan. It’s called primaries. Why individuals are trying to void the votes of millions of people beats me. I think they are being spooked by the Republican inevitability trash talk.
Happy to report that Laura Gillen NY-04 is opening two more campaign offices this weekend! I’ll be attending the opening for the one closest to me. I’m sure our contributions helped!
I am pulling for Biden to stay in. I bought a big B-H flag from the merch store that I very much want to fly after the Dem convention. This push against him literally upsets my stomach. In the meantime I will keep volunteering for my local races because it’s more important than ever that we have a Democratic Congress in 2025, either to advance the agenda of a Democratic president or to hinder the agenda of a convicted felon.
Hey everyone! Thanks for all your good energy. Wow. What a gang. I love you. I think Simon's posting of the PsychoPAC is so important. I have been worried about this for many years and NO ONE has wanted to address Trump's mental health out loud and in the public... except some psychologists who have been interviewed. And who listens to mental health professionals, right? I am a therapist and social worker. I think this is one of the fundamental reasons Trump is unfit and I think we need to shout it out along with his other "diagnoses" : Rapist, fraudster, convicted felon, traitor.... etc. He is a Malignant Narcissist and a Sociopath. Most of us know this. I find it appalling that the media is fixated on age and not mental health. It shows how unaware and unconscious we are as a culture. Thank god for all of you! Keep on working everyone and thank you!!
I am going to steal this from Rick Wilson and Mike Madrid "The disconnect between the data & the panic is broad. THIS is why many of us are scratching our heads at what is going on.
Did President Biden’s horrific debate performance do damage? Of course it did, although it’s unclear how much. But in my opinion, the Democratic panic and disarray, all too much of it on full public display, has done far more damage!
When people such as Congressman Adam Schiff and others start talking about a Trump victory as *inevitable*, you really have to ask yourself: WTF???
There is also this source however.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/18/kamala-harris-allies-biden-00169508
It is hard to confirm anything that isn't concrete. Also I think it said that Mark guy was reporting with Newsmax, which is a source that is quite hard to trust
DO NOT BELIEVE ANYTHING ON NEWSMAX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m as pro “step-aside” as they come but I put very little stock in the Helperin “report” I do believe Biden is going to step aside soon, but would be very surprised by the rest.
Sounds like something Russia would make up it's so bad. My goodness what a terrible plan. What ya think Simon? Some "wild speculation" here or is it accurate enough to leave up?
There is going to be a lot of chaos makers in the coming weeks - like that ridiculous Emerson poll today - and we cannot get spooked by any one poll, any one news account, any one statement. What MAGA and Russia want as the intelligence community calls it is to "sow discord." They want us fighting, afraid, freaking out - don't do it. Be strong, recognize you an actor in a global fight between freedom and dominion as I call it in my talks, and choose freedom, optimism, love of country. When we fight, when we express anger, negative sentiment, they win. More than anything else they want us fighting with one another, angry, trashing members of our own team. My advice - don't do it. Talk about them. Promote the good things Joe Biden and the Democrats have done. Rise above. Be smart. Play to win. Take responsibility for the sentiment you are putting out in the world and let's go win this thing, together.
Something I’ve been bringing up to a lot of people panicking over these outliers polls indicating catastrophe for Biden; these have been popping up periodically this entire election cycle from what I recall, like back in spring there was a NYT poll showing Trump ahead by 14 points or something, and everyone was kind of freaking out over it (it was actually that incident which led me to this blog, and finding out that, not only was said poll *very* suspect, but that the media was conspicuously not reporting on polling that was more favorable to Biden), so this is not even something new post-debate.
I took statistics in college, and learned both that *most* people don’t understand statistics as well as they think they do, but also that it’s very common for statistical data to appear to show trends that aren’t really there, either by happenstance flaws in how the data that was collected, or by intentional weighting of certain data. Political polling is complicated and especially prone to biased or flawed collection, as I know you’re all too familiar with. From my understanding, two of the main methods by which data is collected for these weekly opinion polls right now are phone surveys via landline, and online opt-in surveys, both of which are known to have certain endemic biases (there was a Pew Research study published early this year finding that online opt-in surveys are very biased toward young people with right-leaning political views, as well as people who lie and only do the surveys for money—thus not taking them very seriously), so any data these surveys find has to be carefully interpreted with a grain of salt and in the broader context.
At this point, if I see an isolated poll showing *either* candidate suddenly way further ahead or behind where they were in polls from a week ago, I don’t really think much of it unless it’s clearly part of a larger pattern (which thus far these kind of polls haven’t been to my knowledge).
A really eye opening book on this is “Good Thinking” by David Robert Grimes
Yes and I thought here at Hopium we are not relying on polling as the main conveyer of election status, my main attraction to this community's ideology..but lately I'm hearing a reliance of Biden's strength or weakness based on polls..🤦♂️
P.S. 🤫
193/213 House Dems, 45/47 Dem Senators, and all 34 Dem Gov support Biden and Hillary and Bill and others are helping him fundraise!
Well said. The media throws polls around like batting averages and the collection is so haphazard, I don’t think you can trust most of these polls. The loss of land lines has thrown the polls all off. And I think many actors are thrilled with these skewed results, like Paul Manafort.
Yes! Dr. Ruth Ben-Ghiat has been saying this, too. Discord is what they want bc they want people to STOP CARING. Don't care if anything is true, verifiable, give up on the news, on our president, the government, each other. Divide and conquer - it's an old, old playbook. It's how authoritarian regimes prosper. Don't share info unless you have done what we in the info literacy community (I'm in higher ed) call lateral reading - pause, check to see if any other TRUSTED source is reporting the story with verifiable facts. If not, do not share and move on. I teach college students this stuff every day. We are smart people - we can do this.
Blake, I've taken this post down because it is inflammatory and seems far-fetched. Let's be patient and see what the President and his team say, not some discredited journalist looking to get back into the game.
yeah I’m not trusting any of these supposed “inside sources close to the president” until there’s some sort of official statement
Agreed!!!
Since Ruben Gallego is one of our projects, I was wondering how he's faring in the polls? A few recent ones have Lake gaining or ahead, but they were so nakedly partisan that I'm assuming Simon laughed them out of the office.
Arizona is far from a blue state, but Ruben is a great candidate Kari Lake is far from being a not-awful person. Despite the late start, I figured Ruben had the advantage here.
Jason, so far the polls mostly show Ruben beating Lake, but we can not for one second let up. Ruben came and spoke to us here. He's an amazing candidate and Arizona is lucky to have a man like him running for the Senate.
A few months ago I saw a Republican interviewed on TV (don't remember who) and he referred to Kari Lake as "Governor Lake." Scary that people think she ever held that office.
I sure don't doubt that. But, to that befuddled voter's credit, Lake ran around the state caterwauling that she was the rightful Governor for two years after she lost. These are confusing days!
Is this some maga version of fake it till you make it?
LOL - clearly!!
Copying in my comment from last night because I posted it late.
Hi Simon. I have a few thoughts I wanted to share with you.
First, and most important, imo we NEED a drop dead date after which all talk of dropping Biden ends. That date needs to be soon too, like in the next week or two. Heck, make it July 31 if that makes sense. If Biden does drop out, fine, but it has to happen ASAP if it's going to happen. And if it's not going to happen, then enough is enough with the infighting.
If I had a platform like you do, I would make and strictly enforce this drop dead date for this discussion, preferably based on talks with other Dems. If I were a Dem who was wavering on Biden but wants to defeat Trump first and foremost, I would set such a date for myself. We can have a vigorous debate, but the talk needs to turn towards defeating Trump. Whatever the date is, we can have a vigorous and thorough discussion before then. But after that, if Biden is still in, all comments suggesting Biden can't win or should drop get removed and repeat offenses get banned.
I'll be upfront and say I'm on team keep Biden. I won't be overly sad if it goes the other way, but I also think you absolutely do not dump a candidate who has over 50% chance of winning according to 538. (edit - and who won 90+% of the vote in the primaries! The disrespect to the primary voters!) Dumping a candidate is extremely risky. The only way it makes sense in this situation is if Biden physically isn't up for the campaign. But that's a discussion between Biden, his physician, and his closest advisors. If he thinks he can handle it, I think he should stay in.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ so
I appreciate your open approach. I too will accept what democrats decide because honestly they've been doing the hard work of supporting and dealing daily with these Mad Maga humans. We will get it mostly right, pull together and do this. Americans are not blind, and even the worst mostly want peace and justice, we just don't agree at the moment on how it will happen.
Yep. In the end I care much more that the discussion has a permanent resolution than I do what that resolution is.
I'm also very thankful that the discussion is happening in July, not October.
Agree with both your points. I’m very very super duper glad that this discussion is happening in July, and mid-July at that - this is the time of year when a lot of people drop everything and go on vacation. Also there does have to be a resolution. Whatever is decided - and I’m going to go with “Joe Biden and others who know a lot better than me will decide” - I just want it to end, so we can get on with the business of winning.
👍
The drop dead date is August 2nd. That's when the roll call will be held, as planned back in May to avoid relying on the Ohio Republican governor and legislature to keep their word WRT letting the Democratic nominee on the ballot. (The law they passed is a poison pill that doesn't take effect until September.)
I agree! It is so discouraging hearing the media talk about how this or that leader feels Biden should drop out because they think he might not be able to beat Trump. There are no guarantees that any candidate can, but Biden is doing a great job and has a fantastic record! I personally feel that no other candidate is ready to step up, especially at this very late date. Good grief, all this panicked handwringing is embarrassing our party. Let’s stick together and stand behind Biden and win this thing!
Great comment
And it is discouraging us volunteers. Some people have stepped away from reading Hopium Chronicles because of it. Hopefully they are still doing GOTV work.
I’m riding with Biden : https://open.substack.com/pub/constantcommoner/p/thoughts-on-joe-biden-by-someone?r=dn6h&utm_medium=ios
Totally with you on Biden. 100%. "a discussion between Biden, his physician, and his closest advisors. If he thinks he can handle it, I think he should stay in". ....but that is what we all think!... If Biden can handle it....it just looks very scary like he can't. He's not punching back. When someone asks him a question he's defensive. Yes, yes he is a great great President, the most consequential in my lifetime -- from JFK on! And my 78 year old brother agrees. And we agree on very little. We both agree, he is a historic figure who could become in the history books not only saving Democracy but the 2nd Geo. Washington where kings said only a great man could step away from power for the good of the country. And anyway, why can't Biden stay on as International Advisor to Harris? The area he loves the most.
Fwiw I think that's a perfectly reasonable opinion! In my mind the deal is, if you end up being right and Biden drops out, I'll drop the matter and support Kamala Harris. If I end up being right and he stays in, I hope you can drop the matter too and support him. Whichever one it is, I really hope we're not still talking about this in 3 weeks!
Right, I've been Biden Harris all the way!
I disagree that "he's not punching back." Have you watched his rally speeches in the past few weeks? His informal interactions with campaign volunteers in Pennsylvania? His post-NATO press conference? The interview he did with Lester Holt? He sure punched back at Lester about the media for not covering what matters -- the issues. And what you call "defensive," I call "punching back." Sometimes I get the impression that people are only watching what they want to see.
Thanks Carolyn. I’ll relook at all you said. I am 73 and my husband is 80. We need our sleep. Praying Biden is managing his time and health better.
I think the President is under so much scrutiny that no matter what he does, he is criticized. Too timid. Too Defensive. Too Weak. Too Tired. Too much teleprompter. Can't read a teleprompter - oh wait that's Trump but he gets a pass. I hope they make a decision soon and we all get on board. My guess is that the powers that be are considering all the options and logistics involved. At least I hope so.
I think Biden’s nomination (which has been moved up to the start of August because of the ballot SNAFU in Ohio) makes the most sense as such a date; obviously if he’s confirmed as the nominee no further discussion really makes sense.
Thus, we will know for certain very soon what’s going to happen (personally, I’ll be very surprised if Biden steps aside).
I’ll admit I’ve gone back and forth on the whole thing somewhat, but I’ve generally come to the conclusion that Biden resigning and having Harris become the candidate would come with *a lot* of its own trials and tribulations that it seems few want to realistically discuss (ie legal challenges, state ballot issues, etc.), and would just never be the silver bullet people seem to want it to be, and imho passing Harris over for a totally new candidate/brokered convention is an *immensely* foolish idea that I have never supported, and frankly it has been alarming to me to see many “respectable” public figures nearly twice my age or older (I’m in my early 30s) act so childishly naive about the whole process of replacing Biden this late in the race, just because they want their personal dream candidate to be president.
I say this as a registered independent with further left political views (thus, not actually a Democrat); overall, I actually lean toward thinking Biden staying in is the safer option, unbelievable to some as that may seem right now, I keep seeing people like Allan Lichtman and that guy someone posted a talk in here from the other day (I forget his name unfortunately, Chris Bouzer maybe?), who have a *very* good track record predicting the outcome of elections, saying that Biden staying in is the better path forward, and I’m increasingly inclined to agree with them.
I think right now the million dollar question is whether or not the party can pull itself together before November, and present a united front against MAGA fascism, as I’m inclined to believe that the optics of a party in chaos and at each other’s throats (which, as a sort of outsider looking, is what I see with the DNC right now) is probably going to be a worse deterrent for independents and anti-Trump republicans than the optics of Biden being old are.
A lot of people are *terrified* of Project 2025 right now, I know I certainly am as a queer woman, they’re just looking for an institution they can trust to oppose it, but I’ll admit, it can be difficult to have faith in a party that looks like it’s tearing itself apart from the inside because their candidate did terribly in an early first debate.
So yeah, it may surprise some to hear this from someone who isn’t even a registered democrat, but what is desperately needed right now is party unity, and fast. Again referencing that Chris Bouzer guy’s talk (if that is indeed his name, I’m bad with names), disunity and fragmentation in the DNC is a much bigger liability to winning this election than any issue with Biden himself, I wish more people could see that, and I desperately hope they can soon.
Agree!
Can Biden win? Sure.
Can we win with a horribly fractured party? No.
We’ve been saying for a while that the fatal flaw for MAGA is it split the GOP apart. If the same happens to us, if we can’t unite the progressives and the liberals and the independents in opposition to Trump and all he stands for because of candidate infighting- we can’t win. So this has to stop. The decision is Biden’s to make, he’s been very clear he’s not dropping out, so the elite donors, pundits, and party leaders need to stop. It’s done.
Amen.
Let’s also take into account that there’s over 200 Democrats in the Congress and yet how many are calling for him to step aside (a very small number).
About 20. So yeah, 90% of primary voters voted for Biden and 90% of D congresspeople are still with Biden.
Now that you've pointed that out, it feeds into my personal pet theory that a lot of the "Biden drop out" is all the same people who already didn't like Biden finding a permission structure to ask for him to drop out. That permissions structure needs to go ASAP assuming Biden is not in fact going to drop out. (and if he is, then that has to happen ASAP)
I think you’re right that a lot of it is just the newest excuse people have found to be critical of Biden, although with the House democrats who want him to drop out, I also think an important factor for many of them is uncertainty about down-ballot races they want to win, as iirc a number of them are in tough contested districts (although I don’t know to what extent this is true of all 20). Even Biden himself acknowledged this, noting that some of them are vulnerable in November and might be trying to hedge their bets.
This is just false. Over 50% of Democrats want the President to step aside. That has been consistent in poll after poll in recent days. When Schumer told the President on Saturday he thought he should step aside he told him he was speaking for the entire Senate Democratic caucus. This is a rough patch for all of us and out of respect for one another we need to be honest and truthful and data-driven.
Two questions.
Do you have numbers for how many people thought Biden should step down before the debate? I'd be interested to see if it actually changed after the debate.
What would be the mechanics if Biden were to step down? I find the idea of anyone other than Kamala Harris becoming the nominee to be rediculous, but what do I know.
I know you're correct. But should we not also ask, in a head-to-head with Trump, what percentage of Dems would vote for Biden, even if they want him to step aside?
Not only that, might I point out that many are from centrist districts and are not POC.
We now know one of the names behind the extortion efforts trying to push Joe out - a Hollywood talent flack called Tom Strickler:
https://x.com/MPLSKerrBear/status/1813916957936115980?
However, he's not all that. He's never donated to Heinrich, so Heinrich blew off his extortion efforts:
https://x.com/tcstephenson818/status/1813931457255288955
Talent agent tactics. Works on some. Strickler is hardly a flack. He's a partner in WME. Regardless of who is at the top of the ticket - they will donate.
Psssh. Hollywood. Explains George Clooney’s putting his oar in. Maybe stay in your lane, Tom? (LOL that Heinrich blew him off.)
Since he's never donated to Heinrich, is it possible that this story is NOT true? What is the source?
So now we are told to believe in polls we were told we can't trust that Harris has better odds than Biden. Crazy it’s insanity..
We have to do everything we can to remind folks that Donald Trump is a rapist, a 34X-convicted felon, a serial fraudster who steals from charities, a fascist insurrectionist, a deplorable human being who sexualizes his own daughter, a vile racist who demonizes persons of color and immigrants, and a traitor who is actively colluding with enemies and dictators to undermine our democracy.
Social media. Coffee shops. Water coolers. Bumper stickers. Yard signs. etc. WE HAVE TO KEEP TRUMP'S CEILING LOW!
This is what buys us time for Dems to figure things out. I just pray to God that Biden's inner circle is being honest with Biden about the current state of affairs, and especially the polling that hit today. Pray to God.
YES. It will move forward either way, and we all know we need to pull together without fear and anger, and LOVE the way we make things happen when we are motivated by justice, peace and fairness. I've been putting up my own plain little Handmaids Tale warning signs all over town, reminding people to read about Project 2025 and vote. Talking to my kids to get their feedback even if it's not great, because at least then we're talking about it. I am setting up lunches and zooming into Heather Cox Richardson and women's groups instead of doomscrolling. It feels good (and yes sometimes bad) to be alive in this together with you all.
I suspect Trump’s ceiling is unlikely to rise much in the coming months, especially since there’s still likely sentencing for the hush money charges coming up in September (which will be a big reminder to everyone closer to the election, regardless of what the sentence ends up being). It’s just a question of getting Biden (or whoever) up well above his floor.
Wish I could agree with you. The polls hitting today show signs of Trump actually gaining voters now.
I just hope to God Biden's advisors are being honest with him.
If you’re talking about the Emerson poll, Simon has already talked in a comment upthread about how that poll is an outlier that we shouldn’t be putting stock into until/unless we have more data pointing in that direction. There was an isolated NYT poll back in March or April that had Trump ahead by something like 14 points, which also suggested Trump had gained voters, but obviously there was something very wrong with their data, sampling, and/or methodology, because no similar results showed up in any other poll from that time (suspiciously, even another poll from NYT barely a week later showed completely different numbers).
I’m not surprised that polling right now is showing Trump in an improved position with regard to Biden, as candidates almost always experience a (usually temporary) polling boost after their party’s convention, and in fact I saw someone in the comments yesterday cautioning everyone about this phenomenon, and not to jump to conclusions because of it.
In any event, I’m going to need to see more reliable data indicating that Trump’s ceiling is in fact rising to any significant, as that just seems highly unlikely right now for several reasons (particularly as it would be the first this has happened since the beginning of this year, more or less), as I said elsewhere, polling data has to be understood in a larger context particularly when it conflicts with other polling data.
Not just the Emerson Poll (high rated). Also Florida Atlantic (high rated). SurveyUSA (high rated). Morningstar (low rated). SoCal ((low rated). Etc.
Just go to 538 and look at national and state polls that hit today. Pretty bad stuff.
What polling
Pretty much all polling today, and especially the state polling from Emerson College (top 10 pollster) and others.
What are they saying? What kind of margins? What states? Simon said it's quite at odd with majority of polls last couple of weeks
What do crosstabs say?
Isn’t the 538 poll still showing Biden ahead? I’m suspicious of all the polls at this point. The only ones I trust are the ones Simon refers to here. Also, I like Allan Lichtman. He says polls don’t predict election outcomes, which is true.
As a resident of GA with a grassroots southern perspective, and with your wife working for Biden, please encourage Biden to stay in the race. From our perspective, Biden is non threatening to older and suburban independent voters and the younger voters understand what is at stake. This is no time to undermine our democracy with this destructive hysteria. The grassroots has Biden's back! A mini primary, sends a dismissive message to our AA friends as well! Regardless of what this is about behind the scenes, we must be better than this and Biden deserves our support!
I really hope there is no mini primary.
Yes! I'm from the black immigrant community. For us elections are a matter of life or death. Today we learn that maternal deaths exploded in States where abortion is prohibited. Politics is not a beauty pageant contest. Your elected politicians can have the power of life or death over you on various issues. Who do you trust to make the right decision for your life in the Oval Office on these crucial issues? Certainly not DONALD TRUMP and JD VANCE! I 100% trust JOE!
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/07/18/state-of-heathcare-for-women-is-in-a-fragile-place-florida-women-are-dying-from-preventable-causes/
I’m LGBTQ and feel similarly about this being a matter of life or death, like while I personally have the resources to likely *just barely* pull through if Trump were elected (unless the absolute worse case scenario happens, which I’ll leave to everyone’s imagination), a lot of my friends *don’t*, to the point where I honestly worry that some in my circles straight up wouldn’t survive. I live on a little blue island in a sea of blood red, the only liberal metro area in my state, and the state government seems to want to all but exterminate certain communities, so if Trump opens that door, things could get really bad here.
It has been incredibly infuriating and disheartening to see so many people willing to toss my and my community’s well-being aside like garbage because they want some imaginary perfect candidate, or because they fail to understand that a presidency isn’t just one person, and even if Biden were incapable of competently running the country (which I see no clear signs of, being an old man with a speech impediment isn’t inherently an obstacle to being a head of state), he has Harris and many others waiting in the wings (and since Harris is in my mind the only realistic replacement, this all shouldn’t even be a question; for anyone who likes Harris and thinks Biden won’t make it another four years, well you’re in luck, because if Biden can’t lead anymore, guess who becomes president anyway?).
I really don’t know if I’ll ever be able to muster faith in the general population of this country again if they sacrifice my human rights because they refused to vote for an old guy in favor of a slightly younger old guy who’s also an opportunistic wannabe dictator and felon (and who we already know is a disastrously bad president). Like I already lost over three years of my life to the covid pandemic, and it’s like now people want to put the same guy who willingly let it get that bad back into office because an endlessly more capable president who helped to get us *through* said pandemic is old and struggles with words sometimes? Utter insanity.
I honestly have no special words to soothe your anguish. There are so many crucial issues where we know the other side is wrong, but here we are debating the oratory skills and the optics of a competent President. I guess because of the media culture in the USA, elections have been turned into show business or a game (too much political TV drama?). Meanwhile, in real life, "ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES." However, I do believe that the American people usually pull themselves together to do the right thing in crucial moments (even if this can be painfully delayed).
I continue to be concerned about what I’m reading about difficulties within the party. But I’m trying to let go and just focus on what I’m doing to help out now. Maybe be with time to rest this weekend, Biden will arrive at the best solution.
Don't worry -- work harder.
Today is Florida day on FT 6. Textarcade, phonebank.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/actions
https://www.fieldteam6.org/fund-the-mission
I’ve been thinking about how the Biden campaign could possibly change tack in order to turn a corner on this narrative about his fitness, as clearly their initial approach of stubbornly dismissing the concerns hasn’t landed well, and tbh it might actually help at this point if Biden did another TV interview where he addresses the issue of his stutter head on, explains what it is, how he’s had it his whole life, how he copes with it by sometimes dropping words he struggles on rather than getting stuck on them (which people are misinterpreting as him losing his train of thought), and how it has nothing to with his cognitive abilities or fitness to lead the country. Taking another neurological test and being transparent about it like he agreed to would also help (yes, in an ideal world Trump would take one too, but let’s be real here, that won’t happen). Probably wouldn’t be a silver bullet, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt at this point, either.
I seldom drop a comment because so many others fill the void. There is one very important point to make today: Now we should not put our heads down to work, we should get our chins off our chests and proudly let everyone know we’re going to win. Why? Because the big effort of maga/Trumpists/Christo-fascists is to discourage us and to set us up for their violent reaction when we win. We are on the right side of every issue and the issues are HUGE! We’re out-raising them! Our candidates are decent, sensible people! Heads up and be proud! It is we who are defending American values and we will win in November! That message should permeate the DNC, too!
Yes!! It is time to end the debate, circle in, and fight the fight we need to be fighting.
The more you, and we, win this argument, the safer we all are.
The more our side is expected to win, the more the other side can expect, even conceptualize losing among voters and polls beforehand, the less room they will have for trouble and the less emboldened they will be to make trouble of broad and wide consequence.
That's the spirit of trying to get to 55%, beyond the undeniable policy/governance of the stretch/dream goal of actually getting to 55.
As Timothy Sneider said in his book “On Tyranny,” the number one rule is Never Obey In Advance.
And that sounds like what CNN and MSNBC are doing already. With MSNBC swapping out morning Joe like they did on Monday after assassination attempt.
tbh I’ve seen some people talking about the possibility that this election could turn out like a reverse of 2016 (where the democratic candidate seemed to be generally ahead and almost everyone underestimated the republican, right up until Trump won), and I think there might be something to this, in that I think Trump’s campaign delusionally believing that they’re going to “win in a landslide” (unless one specifically cherrypicks the minority of outlier polls showing Trump far ahead right now, there’s no way it’d ever be a “landslide” victory if he won) might actually end up being their achilles heel, as Trump’s base (who we already have evidence tends to consist of less politically-engaged, lower propensity voters) would be less likely to put the effort into actually voting if they think he has the election in the bag anyway (kind of like democrats did with Hillary in 2016), especially in states where their own side has made it harder to vote, while meanwhile Biden voters are intensely motivated by fear.
For the record, this is not an excuse to become complacent, not by any means, but it is something I’ve been thinking about, that MAGA’s own overly-confident rhetoric they’ve been spewing the whole election might end up doing anything but helping them in the end.
Tricia, You make good points! I feel a lot of confidence that we’ll win. I cannot imagine a majority of Americans voting for something as ugly as fascist Trump.
We have to excite people to vote!!! Like Obama did. He won because Dems voted big time. Young people of cover women!
I do realistically think it will be pretty challenging to get a lot of people especially *excited* about Biden as a candidate, but the amount of fear Trump and Project 2025 is creating in people is definitely it’s own kind of motivation, and I can say as a vulnerable minority (and a woman) that it can be a pretty powerful one, we just have to make sure people don’t entirely give in to the fear and start feeling that it’s hopeless either way (which is why the party absolutely *needs* to come together at the convention, rather than throwing in the towel and giving up like a lot of media pundits seem to want to already).
I will say one thing vaguely encouraging; I know a lot of people my age and younger (I’m 33), with similarly progressive or left-wing politics, who in many cases are not avid voters, but are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this election simply because of what’s at stake. We live in a red state where Biden is incredibly unlikely to win (although tbf, there are also some signs Trump wont do as well as usual here this election), but I have to assume if I’m having this experience in my social circles, I’m probably far from the only one.
Also, even if voters aren’t that enthusiastic about Biden himself, there seems to be a lot of energy around down ballot democrats in many of the important swing states (who iirc have been consistently polling well ahead of Biden), and although it is *possible* for Trump to win while both houses of congress go to the democrats (which, while far from an ideal outcome in itself, *would* at least hamper MAGA’s ability to enact some of the worst of Project 2025), but there’s a reason that outcome is so rare, and that’s because it’s overall pretty unlikely someone is going to turn up to the polling booth to vote for democrat congressional candidates, and then not just shrug and throw in a vote for Biden as well, let alone vote for democrats and then vote for *Trump*. Like even if voters aren’t enthusiastic about Biden, it’s hard for me to imagine most democrats or independents dislike him *that* much, especially with everything that’s at stake. The “reverse coattails* effect shouldn’t be dismissed.
Even more significantly, reproductive rights are going to be on the ballot in several integral states (as well as Florida), and referenda on wedge issues have historically driven turnout for parties in the past, even when they had an unpopular candidate (it’s a big part of how GWB won re-election in 2004; the GOP got same-sex marriage on the ballot in swing states, which at the time the GOP—and some democrats—were especially vehemently opposed to, so that boosted turnout on their side), and I don’t think hordes of pissed off young women showing up to vote is going to help Trump much at all.
I hope you're right.
I agree. I suspect the Republicans are pushing this narrative partly bc their platform is so repulsive to so many people and also so they can say afterwards that the election was “rigged” and challenge the results. It’ll be harder for them to challenge I think if the margins are big enough. They want to use invincibility as a psychological tool. But we will not be cowed by this! We have right on our side and that is what good decent people want.
Both-And instead of Either-Or. We need to both put our heads down to do the work and raise our chins to assert our strength, educate people about the dangers of Project 2025, and engage others to join us!
Would be a good time to post on all your social media — “The GOP is about to nominate a court adjudicated rapist and 34X convicted felon for POTUS”
Ron,
Right on!! Heads up, not down! Chins off chests! We need to laser focus on canvasing by educating the electorate.
Ads need to improve and be direct around women’s health care rights, not circumstantial pregnancy outliers. I have ad ideas which will get the attention of every female voter of childbearing age, as well as their mothers and grandmothers.
Many other platform issues to address, and if we stick with the top three, or four, and hammer them home with intention and truth-we’ll win these battles by sheer determination.
REALITY…more funds are needed! Create the EMUSK challenge by establishing a massive donation campaign with the goal of 50+ million people donating $1+ every week for the next 10 weeks. Make it a raffle for OUR (god’s) sake!!!
With $$$$$ comes attention getting billboards on every major corridor across the nation. Effective, stunning, show stopping media ads everywhere like white on rice baby.
Simon Rosenberg, can you help with this additional fund raising campaign and strategies to bullhorn American left, right, and center?
Passion, purpose, intention and fury is SEXY.
Thank you Simon for everything you do everyday!! YOU ROCK!!
Powerful ad, powerful new PAC. So appreciate your sharing these, Simon.
I completely support Biden if he chooses to continue. IF he himself decides to step aside, I would be all in on a Harris/ Mark Kelly ticket. It checks all the boxes.
And his relationship with Gabby brings tears to my eyes in this photo and is worth 1 million pro-Dem votes at least -
https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-kelly-gabrielle-gabby-giffords-relationship-timeline-2021-1
Re Gallego, Kelly brings AZ with him as much as we Dems can expect
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/video/1487351
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/18/mark-kelly-name-surfaces-discussions-replacing-democratic-nominee/74451115007/
If not Biden/ Harris, then Harris/ Kelly - go, Dems! Biden’s call!
Who is the Gov who appoints Mark's successor?
Exactly, Rob. No worries there - it’s Democrat Katie Hobbs, Governor of Arizona, who beat out kari Lake in 2022. We’ll keep that Senate seat.
As @DavidPepper just Tweeted, "Tonight is the first time in America’s history that any party will nominate a convicted felon as their candidate for president — and we’re over here litigating our family business via reporter half-leak tweets.
Go on offense."
Thanks Simon. George Conway and his organization sounds great. Fighting back with some hard hitting stuff. It is so upsetting that top Democrats do not have a transparent pick and transparent plan, just flinging poo. Biden deserves the respect of all Democrats. I can’t believe we’re here.
This is exactly why I think this conversation needs an end date. It's getting rediculous.
We do have a transparent plan. It’s called primaries. Why individuals are trying to void the votes of millions of people beats me. I think they are being spooked by the Republican inevitability trash talk.
Happy to report that Laura Gillen NY-04 is opening two more campaign offices this weekend! I’ll be attending the opening for the one closest to me. I’m sure our contributions helped!
I am pulling for Biden to stay in. I bought a big B-H flag from the merch store that I very much want to fly after the Dem convention. This push against him literally upsets my stomach. In the meantime I will keep volunteering for my local races because it’s more important than ever that we have a Democratic Congress in 2025, either to advance the agenda of a Democratic president or to hinder the agenda of a convicted felon.
Hey everyone! Thanks for all your good energy. Wow. What a gang. I love you. I think Simon's posting of the PsychoPAC is so important. I have been worried about this for many years and NO ONE has wanted to address Trump's mental health out loud and in the public... except some psychologists who have been interviewed. And who listens to mental health professionals, right? I am a therapist and social worker. I think this is one of the fundamental reasons Trump is unfit and I think we need to shout it out along with his other "diagnoses" : Rapist, fraudster, convicted felon, traitor.... etc. He is a Malignant Narcissist and a Sociopath. Most of us know this. I find it appalling that the media is fixated on age and not mental health. It shows how unaware and unconscious we are as a culture. Thank god for all of you! Keep on working everyone and thank you!!
I am going to steal this from Rick Wilson and Mike Madrid "The disconnect between the data & the panic is broad. THIS is why many of us are scratching our heads at what is going on.
Did President Biden’s horrific debate performance do damage? Of course it did, although it’s unclear how much. But in my opinion, the Democratic panic and disarray, all too much of it on full public display, has done far more damage!
When people such as Congressman Adam Schiff and others start talking about a Trump victory as *inevitable*, you really have to ask yourself: WTF???
I agree, it seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy
Your right. Hopefully things will quiet down before anymore damage is done. I hope Biden doesn't quit!