On Sunday, the Washington Post reported that "a contingency of House Republicans privately have been saying that there is no way Johnson can strike an agreement that appeases a fractious GOP conference."
That being the case, it's a pointless waste of time for Speaker Johnson to do anything other than bring the Senate-passed aid bill (HR 815) to the floor of the House. If Mr. Johnson won't do it himself, then that "contingency of House Republicans" needs to sign the Discharge Petition now. Only 218 signatures are needed, and the 195 currently on it includes only one Republican.
Everyone reading this can help by calling Republican Representatives and urging them to sign the discharge petition for HR 815, to expedite delivery of military assistance for Ukraine before it's too late.
Two influential pro-Ukraine Republicans named in the WaPo article are Michael Turner (R-OH) 202-225-6465, and Michael McCaul (R-TX) 202-225-2401.
You can call the U S Capitol switchboard (202) 224-3121 to connect with any Representative. Speaker Johnson's office number is (202) 225-4000. Call him to insist that he encourage Republicans to sign the petition.
For phone numbers of about about two dozen other Republicans known to support Ukraine aid, please click on recent Ukraine-related posts at:
I'm concerned that Johnson will bring an Israel-only bill to the floor in order to try and divide Dems. He tried this before and his own conference tanked it but doesn't mean he won't try again. But here we do more and worry less so I am going to call my Rep and continue to work on Vote Forward letters.
There is a chunk of me that really really wants RFK Jr to be Trump's VP pick! Seriously. Not kidding.
I've contacted both my current and my prior Rep about the Senate Supplemental. Done.
I'd still rather be us than them -- but a big part of that is because WE care about the welfare of others, of all peoples, all living things. But it is nervous making that Donald Trump and his Putinesque Republican Party are the ones controlling the politics of the essentials of goverance (Ukraine, Gaza, immigration/border etc) and democracy.
Trump is conducting a Shadow Government of Obstruction without let-up. I think it has infected, the US psyche. Thank heavens for Simon keeping us clear headed and focused.
There has been a lot of emphasis in Hopium on polls that track the overall US prospective voters, but much less that focuses on the swing states. We know that there have been multiple elections, such as Gore and Clinton, where the candidate with the overall popular vote lost. Shouldn’t we be focusing on swing state polls, and pushing harder in these locations?
Simon, i realized I posted this on a previous comment board from one of your previous postings from a couple weeks ago and meant to save this for the most recent. Sorry I’m advance for being very verbose here.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on Professor/Historian Alan Lichtman and his 13 Keys to the WH system which he has effectively curated decades ago and has subsequently used to successfully predict every presidential election since 1984 including both Trump in 2106 and Biden in 2020. He is a staunch Democrat and has yet to make his official call for this election (likely by July/August). Are you familiar with his system? If so, have you ever touched base with him at all? He has informed his followers of having spoken with President Biden in the past about the keys and noted he ‘understood’ the system and also noted when he explained them to Trump in the past, he ‘did not’ predictably so.
Right now, the keys are shifting in Biden’s favor with four of them officially called for him (incumbency, no significant democratic primary challenger, no party in fighting, and having made major policy change) and two officially called against him (no midterm gains and not a charismatic incumbent). The system revolves solely around the party holding the WH in any given election. The data shows when the incumbent party has five or fewer keys turned false against them, they win the election. However, if they have six or more false against them, they lose.
This system has proven effective for decades and I find it fascinating and very Insightful and think Hopium would too. The way they’re leaning, Biden could secure a good eight or nine of the thirteen which would then ‘win him the election’ according to the keys. The keys most up in the air at the moment are both foreign policy success/failure keys depending on the trajectories of both Ukraine and the Middle East as it gets closer to the election (hopefully, more Ukraine aid will pass and maybe Jeffries will even become speaker before the election…one never knows, and hopefully, Netanyahu gets voted out sooner than later as Israel deserves better) as well as, the third party key. However being RFK is not an ‘unusually popular’ third party candidate, Lichtman suggested whatever his polling numbers are now, will likely be cut in half by November…God willing. I see your data however, that supports his theory already and early so RFK doesn’t concern me as much as it does others.
Long as the economic keys (both short term and long term) keep in Biden’s favor as well as, no mass social unrest that amounts to that of the civil rights riots, Jan 6, or the BLM protests (all highly unlikely before the election), no scandal (as Hunter and no official impeachment of Biden does not amount to the level of scandal necessary to turn the key )—-then Biden can solidify enough keys to win the election according to the system.
Obviously mass voter turnout will help as per usual and we shouldn’t solely rely only on the system without doing the work and worrying less like you say. However, it’s definitely worth looking into and maybe using to help mesh with the current political strategies at hand. Lichtman notes that ‘issues’ don’t affect general elections but rather, congressional races as general elections are big picture driven which I tend to agree with.
However, this is the first election women are walking into where they have less rights than in the 20th century. So, if any ‘issues’ will actually have an impact from the top down this election, it will be the relationship between women’s healthcare and preservation of democracy even more than that of immigration, the economy, and crime. In that case, I much rather be Biden in his position than Trump in his. Especially, as AZ is now more in play than ever before catapulting the abortion issue back to front and center. I called it before that once Roe was overturned, a sleeping giant was awoken and she ain’t going back to sleep anytime soon. I feel the same with regards to Russia/Ukraine in the wake of Navalny’s death as well.
I digress…If Biden can win AZ, that would literally make it extremely difficult for Trump to win according to the data and numbers given the electoral makeup. Anyway, just thought the 13 Keys would interest you. I would love to hear any feedback. Thanks again for all you do. Your work that alongside Lincoln Project, Midas Touch, and others are all vital and I believe secret weapons towards winning this election from the top down.
Thanks for the very encouraging update Simon. It gave me a lot of hope. I called my Representative Victoria Spartz's Office and registered my disapproval. This is not the first time. I don't understand her at all. She is from Ukraine for God's sake!! How can she not support Aid for them?! Getting ready to Call Speaker Johnson's office as well.
I wish there was more we could do. Just trying to keep the Faith!! ❤️🇺🇸💙
I don’t believe any of these polls cover the time period last week when the Arizona Supreme Court stripped women of their rights and criminalized their health care providers for providing abortion health care services. Also, jury selection for Trump’s Election Interference Case began today. I think all of this will be much clearer in a month or so and none of it will be good for Trump
Listening to Michael Moore’s podcast he’s so angry at Biden for aiding the killing of Palestinians and now thinks it could tank Biden in November. But if Biden pulled support to Israel today I ask what would happen with his Jewish support??
Thank you Simon for again making some sense out of nonsense. I just became a monthly donor to the Democratic Party so they can better estimate their funding. I think it makes more sense than trying to figure out which of the dozens of donation requests I get weekly, I should give to.
On Sunday, the Washington Post reported that "a contingency of House Republicans privately have been saying that there is no way Johnson can strike an agreement that appeases a fractious GOP conference."
That being the case, it's a pointless waste of time for Speaker Johnson to do anything other than bring the Senate-passed aid bill (HR 815) to the floor of the House. If Mr. Johnson won't do it himself, then that "contingency of House Republicans" needs to sign the Discharge Petition now. Only 218 signatures are needed, and the 195 currently on it includes only one Republican.
Everyone reading this can help by calling Republican Representatives and urging them to sign the discharge petition for HR 815, to expedite delivery of military assistance for Ukraine before it's too late.
Two influential pro-Ukraine Republicans named in the WaPo article are Michael Turner (R-OH) 202-225-6465, and Michael McCaul (R-TX) 202-225-2401.
You can call the U S Capitol switchboard (202) 224-3121 to connect with any Representative. Speaker Johnson's office number is (202) 225-4000. Call him to insist that he encourage Republicans to sign the petition.
For phone numbers of about about two dozen other Republicans known to support Ukraine aid, please click on recent Ukraine-related posts at:
https://www.FeathersOfHope.net
.
I'm concerned that Johnson will bring an Israel-only bill to the floor in order to try and divide Dems. He tried this before and his own conference tanked it but doesn't mean he won't try again. But here we do more and worry less so I am going to call my Rep and continue to work on Vote Forward letters.
“Don’t get bullied”
For sure.
And don’t forget: the party that always stood up to Russian aggression now accommodates the Putin wing.
Reagan would be ashamed with how Trump and his pathetic sycophants ruined the GOP.
There is a chunk of me that really really wants RFK Jr to be Trump's VP pick! Seriously. Not kidding.
I've contacted both my current and my prior Rep about the Senate Supplemental. Done.
I'd still rather be us than them -- but a big part of that is because WE care about the welfare of others, of all peoples, all living things. But it is nervous making that Donald Trump and his Putinesque Republican Party are the ones controlling the politics of the essentials of goverance (Ukraine, Gaza, immigration/border etc) and democracy.
Trump is conducting a Shadow Government of Obstruction without let-up. I think it has infected, the US psyche. Thank heavens for Simon keeping us clear headed and focused.
Absolutely need to rethink military aid to Israel with no strings attached. See NYT Sunday editorial, as well many other commentators, orgs. (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/13/opinion/israel-military-aid.html).
Regarding the Election is Getting Bluer:
What Polls Are Most Important?
ROBERT EISENSTAT
APR 15
READ IN APP
There has been a lot of emphasis in Hopium on polls that track the overall US prospective voters, but much less that focuses on the swing states. We know that there have been multiple elections, such as Gore and Clinton, where the candidate with the overall popular vote lost. Shouldn’t we be focusing on swing state polls, and pushing harder in these locations?
such as :
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4573357-joe-biden-donald-trump-nevada-arizona-michigan-wisconsin-pennsylvania-georgia-polls/
Simon, i realized I posted this on a previous comment board from one of your previous postings from a couple weeks ago and meant to save this for the most recent. Sorry I’m advance for being very verbose here.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on Professor/Historian Alan Lichtman and his 13 Keys to the WH system which he has effectively curated decades ago and has subsequently used to successfully predict every presidential election since 1984 including both Trump in 2106 and Biden in 2020. He is a staunch Democrat and has yet to make his official call for this election (likely by July/August). Are you familiar with his system? If so, have you ever touched base with him at all? He has informed his followers of having spoken with President Biden in the past about the keys and noted he ‘understood’ the system and also noted when he explained them to Trump in the past, he ‘did not’ predictably so.
Right now, the keys are shifting in Biden’s favor with four of them officially called for him (incumbency, no significant democratic primary challenger, no party in fighting, and having made major policy change) and two officially called against him (no midterm gains and not a charismatic incumbent). The system revolves solely around the party holding the WH in any given election. The data shows when the incumbent party has five or fewer keys turned false against them, they win the election. However, if they have six or more false against them, they lose.
This system has proven effective for decades and I find it fascinating and very Insightful and think Hopium would too. The way they’re leaning, Biden could secure a good eight or nine of the thirteen which would then ‘win him the election’ according to the keys. The keys most up in the air at the moment are both foreign policy success/failure keys depending on the trajectories of both Ukraine and the Middle East as it gets closer to the election (hopefully, more Ukraine aid will pass and maybe Jeffries will even become speaker before the election…one never knows, and hopefully, Netanyahu gets voted out sooner than later as Israel deserves better) as well as, the third party key. However being RFK is not an ‘unusually popular’ third party candidate, Lichtman suggested whatever his polling numbers are now, will likely be cut in half by November…God willing. I see your data however, that supports his theory already and early so RFK doesn’t concern me as much as it does others.
Long as the economic keys (both short term and long term) keep in Biden’s favor as well as, no mass social unrest that amounts to that of the civil rights riots, Jan 6, or the BLM protests (all highly unlikely before the election), no scandal (as Hunter and no official impeachment of Biden does not amount to the level of scandal necessary to turn the key )—-then Biden can solidify enough keys to win the election according to the system.
Obviously mass voter turnout will help as per usual and we shouldn’t solely rely only on the system without doing the work and worrying less like you say. However, it’s definitely worth looking into and maybe using to help mesh with the current political strategies at hand. Lichtman notes that ‘issues’ don’t affect general elections but rather, congressional races as general elections are big picture driven which I tend to agree with.
However, this is the first election women are walking into where they have less rights than in the 20th century. So, if any ‘issues’ will actually have an impact from the top down this election, it will be the relationship between women’s healthcare and preservation of democracy even more than that of immigration, the economy, and crime. In that case, I much rather be Biden in his position than Trump in his. Especially, as AZ is now more in play than ever before catapulting the abortion issue back to front and center. I called it before that once Roe was overturned, a sleeping giant was awoken and she ain’t going back to sleep anytime soon. I feel the same with regards to Russia/Ukraine in the wake of Navalny’s death as well.
I digress…If Biden can win AZ, that would literally make it extremely difficult for Trump to win according to the data and numbers given the electoral makeup. Anyway, just thought the 13 Keys would interest you. I would love to hear any feedback. Thanks again for all you do. Your work that alongside Lincoln Project, Midas Touch, and others are all vital and I believe secret weapons towards winning this election from the top down.
If anyone needs that WSJ article on falling homicide rates, here is a gift link:
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/murder-rates-down-new-york-san-francisco-philadelphia-508b6855?st=gks4877sn6wbpwt&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink
All three contacted.
Thanks for the very encouraging update Simon. It gave me a lot of hope. I called my Representative Victoria Spartz's Office and registered my disapproval. This is not the first time. I don't understand her at all. She is from Ukraine for God's sake!! How can she not support Aid for them?! Getting ready to Call Speaker Johnson's office as well.
I wish there was more we could do. Just trying to keep the Faith!! ❤️🇺🇸💙
Contacted my R Congressman to vote in favor of Ukraine funding.
I don’t believe any of these polls cover the time period last week when the Arizona Supreme Court stripped women of their rights and criminalized their health care providers for providing abortion health care services. Also, jury selection for Trump’s Election Interference Case began today. I think all of this will be much clearer in a month or so and none of it will be good for Trump
Listening to Michael Moore’s podcast he’s so angry at Biden for aiding the killing of Palestinians and now thinks it could tank Biden in November. But if Biden pulled support to Israel today I ask what would happen with his Jewish support??
Do all of the contributions made to the Biden Harris campaign through Hopium go to their campaign or does Hopium keep part of it.
Excellent, detailed and informative interview with Pres Zelenskyy on PBS Newshour. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/exclusive-zelenskyy-says-without-u-s-aid-well-have-no-chance-of-winning
Thank you Simon for again making some sense out of nonsense. I just became a monthly donor to the Democratic Party so they can better estimate their funding. I think it makes more sense than trying to figure out which of the dozens of donation requests I get weekly, I should give to.