On Sunday, the Washington Post reported that "a contingency of House Republicans privately have been saying that there is no way Johnson can strike an agreement that appeases a fractious GOP conference."
That being the case, it's a pointless waste of time for Speaker Johnson to do anything other than bring the Senate-passed aid bill (HR 815) to the floor of the House. If Mr. Johnson won't do it himself, then that "contingency of House Republicans" needs to sign the Discharge Petition now. Only 218 signatures are needed, and the 195 currently on it includes only one Republican.
Everyone reading this can help by calling Republican Representatives and urging them to sign the discharge petition for HR 815, to expedite delivery of military assistance for Ukraine before it's too late.
Two influential pro-Ukraine Republicans named in the WaPo article are Michael Turner (R-OH) 202-225-6465, and Michael McCaul (R-TX) 202-225-2401.
You can call the U S Capitol switchboard (202) 224-3121 to connect with any Representative. Speaker Johnson's office number is (202) 225-4000. Call him to insist that he encourage Republicans to sign the petition.
For phone numbers of about about two dozen other Republicans known to support Ukraine aid, please click on recent Ukraine-related posts at:
I just called and left messages for Turner, McCaul and Johnson. Got right through to a human being except for the Johnson call. I love this site so much. Thank you for this info, Jerry.
Thnxx very much, Jerry. I called the illustrious Sens. Graham and Scott, then called two friends to ask them to call, and both did! It's empowering for us in red states to have something we can ask Republican legislators to do and think they might comply.
Jerry, just out of curiosity: which democrats have yet to sign the Discharge Petition? Do you have the names? Or why? Probably high time to give them a call as well!
The reason some Dems haven't signed is that they object to sending military assistance to Israel due to their conduct of the Gaza operation. But the aid package (HR 815) also includes humanitarian assistance for civilians in both Gaza and Ukraine.
I've advocated that they sign the petition so HR 815 can be brought to the floor for a vote by all members. They can then vote against it if that's what they want to do.
Ukraine should not be punished because of Israel's war.
Yes, HR 815 includes humanitarian aid to Gaza etc. If I remember correctly, the stripped-down alternatives specifically omit this. One way or another, military aid to Israel is going to pass; the only way these Democrats can ensure humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in Gaza IS TO SUPPORT HR 815.
Thanks! I’ve been calling Johnson almost daily, just called again including these other two. I used a zip code from their districts. I also pressured my rep, Jayapal, who is holding out on the discharge petition for other reasons. I’m so angry at her and her conference.
I'm concerned that Johnson will bring an Israel-only bill to the floor in order to try and divide Dems. He tried this before and his own conference tanked it but doesn't mean he won't try again. But here we do more and worry less so I am going to call my Rep and continue to work on Vote Forward letters.
There is a chunk of me that really really wants RFK Jr to be Trump's VP pick! Seriously. Not kidding.
I've contacted both my current and my prior Rep about the Senate Supplemental. Done.
I'd still rather be us than them -- but a big part of that is because WE care about the welfare of others, of all peoples, all living things. But it is nervous making that Donald Trump and his Putinesque Republican Party are the ones controlling the politics of the essentials of goverance (Ukraine, Gaza, immigration/border etc) and democracy.
Trump is conducting a Shadow Government of Obstruction without let-up. I think it has infected, the US psyche. Thank heavens for Simon keeping us clear headed and focused.
There are a few realities about what's happening in Israel that folks need to keep in mind:
1) Iran has genocidal intent for Israel and Jews. It has spent billions of dollars to build up their proxies in Hamas and in Hizbollah, right on the border of Israel, a very small nation. One of their proxies attacked Israel in October. Hizbollah continues to shoot rockets in Israel and threaten Israel from the North. On Saturday Iran launched an attack on Israel that if had it gone unchallenged could have devastated the country and led to more attacks from Iran and its proxies, threatening the very existence of Israel itself. 2) Hamas did not have to choose to affiliate with Iran, and now Russia. They are part of an alliance that is committing genocide in Ukraine, and attempting genocide in Israel. The people responsible for the death of Gazans is Hamas and Iran far more than Israel, for they placed their military underneath and in civilian populations, knowing that for Israel to retaliate people would die. This was their choice, their doing and far more blame needs to be placed on Hamas/Iran for the sacrifice of innocent lives to achieve their genocidal intent in Israel. 3) Saudi Arabia and Jordan worked along side the US, Israel and the UK to prevent the attack on Israel from being effective. So yes leaders of the Arab world came to Israel's defense. 4) Yes Bibi must go if we are to have any chance at a lasting peace in the region.
Putting strings on funding for Israel in the short term is in my mind no longer practical from a military or political standpoint given what happened this weekend, but let's see how the debate unfolds. But this debate can no longer happen outside the broader political realities I describe here. This is about the Russian-Iranian axis and their aggression far more than it is about Gaza itself, and the ongoing refusal to see and account for that is distorting the reality of what's happening here.
You should really write this up as an op-ed and shop it to someone; it needs more eyeballs. It's probably the best summation I've seen on this issue, which I get very emotional about .
There has been a lot of emphasis in Hopium on polls that track the overall US prospective voters, but much less that focuses on the swing states. We know that there have been multiple elections, such as Gore and Clinton, where the candidate with the overall popular vote lost. Shouldn’t we be focusing on swing state polls, and pushing harder in these locations?
Simon has responded to this question/issue multiple times in other threads, so in hopes of giving him a brief break, I'll chime in: nobody is unaware of the importance of the swing states, and everyone on this substack is, indeed, pushing hard in the swing states (I, myself, just wrote 5 more postcards to Nevada just this morning. I write swing state postcards every day, and I'm far from the only one). But two issues regarding swing state polling:
a) the polling cited at your link, by and large, represents much smaller polling samples, and less-current polls, from less-reputable pollsters than the national polls generally cited here at Hopium.
b) As the race has trended more toward Biden over the past several weeks, we're starting to see more swing state polls favoring Biden, including +3 in MI, +7 in PA, and a functional tie in NC. The more (and longer) the national polling trends toward Biden, the more such state polling we'll see...
...IF we keep working hard, every single day. So let's keep working hard! Every single day!
Thanks Patrick. Yes there is very little polling in the swing states. We much more polling nationally so the data is just richer and better. I don't know that the GOP will have a slight advantage in the battlegrounds. They didn't in 2022. May happen. And yes my expectation that as the national numbers improve so will the states, and have already seen us ahead in MI, PA, WI in recent polls and the NC polling last week was encouraging. The election is changing so any polls that are more than 3-4 weeks old just aren't relevant any more.
Great answer! And may I add, we still want to focus on the national popular vote because we want to keep the Senate and flip the house, and win every possible state assembly, state senate, mayoralty, city council, school board, water district board, county commission, county recorder, sheriff, and dog catcher race that we can in all 50 states! That means doing as well as we possibly can everywhere that we have Democrats running that we want to boost on the ballot. The better Joe Biden does Ohio, even if he doesn’t win it, the more likely Sharod Brown is to hold his seat in the United States Senate. The better Joe Biden does in California, the more likely we are to flip four or five house seats there back to Democrats.… The same is true in New York, Florida, Arizona, you name it. Some states will be swing states at the presidential level, but all states have Democrats running down ballot that will benefit from a stronger Biden performance nationally regardless of whether he wins that particular state or not. A down ballot candidate could have as much as a 5 to 10 point over performance of Biden‘s numbers in their district or state… But if the top of the ticket does really poorly in that district or state, it could drag down the baseline. So a candidate that will outperform Biden by five points down ballot, will win the race if Biden gets 45% of the vote, and might lose the race if he only gets 43% of the vote in that district or state. So… even though the national popular vote doesn’t guarantee an electoral college victory, we have to care about both. 😎👍🇺🇸
Join Sister District Action Network as we present findings from our battleground-state survey of voter behavior in state legislative races, conducted in partnership with Data for Progress
In this briefing:
* The challenge of down-ballot roll-off
* Roll-off voter demographics
* Potential reasons why people skip voting in state legislative races
Simon, i realized I posted this on a previous comment board from one of your previous postings from a couple weeks ago and meant to save this for the most recent. Sorry I’m advance for being very verbose here.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on Professor/Historian Alan Lichtman and his 13 Keys to the WH system which he has effectively curated decades ago and has subsequently used to successfully predict every presidential election since 1984 including both Trump in 2106 and Biden in 2020. He is a staunch Democrat and has yet to make his official call for this election (likely by July/August). Are you familiar with his system? If so, have you ever touched base with him at all? He has informed his followers of having spoken with President Biden in the past about the keys and noted he ‘understood’ the system and also noted when he explained them to Trump in the past, he ‘did not’ predictably so.
Right now, the keys are shifting in Biden’s favor with four of them officially called for him (incumbency, no significant democratic primary challenger, no party in fighting, and having made major policy change) and two officially called against him (no midterm gains and not a charismatic incumbent). The system revolves solely around the party holding the WH in any given election. The data shows when the incumbent party has five or fewer keys turned false against them, they win the election. However, if they have six or more false against them, they lose.
This system has proven effective for decades and I find it fascinating and very Insightful and think Hopium would too. The way they’re leaning, Biden could secure a good eight or nine of the thirteen which would then ‘win him the election’ according to the keys. The keys most up in the air at the moment are both foreign policy success/failure keys depending on the trajectories of both Ukraine and the Middle East as it gets closer to the election (hopefully, more Ukraine aid will pass and maybe Jeffries will even become speaker before the election…one never knows, and hopefully, Netanyahu gets voted out sooner than later as Israel deserves better) as well as, the third party key. However being RFK is not an ‘unusually popular’ third party candidate, Lichtman suggested whatever his polling numbers are now, will likely be cut in half by November…God willing. I see your data however, that supports his theory already and early so RFK doesn’t concern me as much as it does others.
Long as the economic keys (both short term and long term) keep in Biden’s favor as well as, no mass social unrest that amounts to that of the civil rights riots, Jan 6, or the BLM protests (all highly unlikely before the election), no scandal (as Hunter and no official impeachment of Biden does not amount to the level of scandal necessary to turn the key )—-then Biden can solidify enough keys to win the election according to the system.
Obviously mass voter turnout will help as per usual and we shouldn’t solely rely only on the system without doing the work and worrying less like you say. However, it’s definitely worth looking into and maybe using to help mesh with the current political strategies at hand. Lichtman notes that ‘issues’ don’t affect general elections but rather, congressional races as general elections are big picture driven which I tend to agree with.
However, this is the first election women are walking into where they have less rights than in the 20th century. So, if any ‘issues’ will actually have an impact from the top down this election, it will be the relationship between women’s healthcare and preservation of democracy even more than that of immigration, the economy, and crime. In that case, I much rather be Biden in his position than Trump in his. Especially, as AZ is now more in play than ever before catapulting the abortion issue back to front and center. I called it before that once Roe was overturned, a sleeping giant was awoken and she ain’t going back to sleep anytime soon. I feel the same with regards to Russia/Ukraine in the wake of Navalny’s death as well.
I digress…If Biden can win AZ, that would literally make it extremely difficult for Trump to win according to the data and numbers given the electoral makeup. Anyway, just thought the 13 Keys would interest you. I would love to hear any feedback. Thanks again for all you do. Your work that alongside Lincoln Project, Midas Touch, and others are all vital and I believe secret weapons towards winning this election from the top down.
Isn't Lichtman the guy in the spring/summer 2019 who was saying the Democrats had to Impeach Trump in order to win in 2020? I was always skeptical how diagnostic his tools were when he was saying it didn't matter what they impeached Trump over. While I think the First Trump Impeachment was justified I do not know if the general public would agree. It was hard to understand for the general electorate at the time, and Trump had already done so many easier to understand crimes.
I have always been skeptical of anyone who says if you do these 13 things x will happen. I mean sure maybe, but it almost always these 13 things are good to have if you want x to happen. We can imagine Biden or Trump having all of the factors on his list, and having a late health emergency and still lose.
Lichtman stresses that while his model has proven accurate thus far, it’s still an executive prediction when all set and done and not a matter of certainty. He makes a call though according to his keys and sticks with it which I admire because right or wrong, he doesn’t retreat nor does he ever answer hypotheticals.
If you look up the 13 keys to the WH on Wikipedia, it literally lays out the entire model key by key and shows a colored grid displaying Lichtman’s calls and how each election cycle matched up with the keys. Granted, he said deciding or turning any key is objective in and of itself but he’s had decades of practice if you will, to help perfect the way he officiates any keys. Heath related issues are always a wild card mind you, but assuming both make it through to the end, I happen to feel the keys are worth keeping in the side view mirror.
Like you, I’m naturally skeptical towards diagnostics and prediction models for the mere reality there can be potential shake ups which disrupt those models. However, Lichtman’ model has proven unique amongst the many that get thrown out into the zeitgeist. Not to mention, he’s an exceptional historian and like the best of observers in the game today like Simon, Heather Cox Richardson, Rick Wilson, Tara Setmeyer, and more…he too has his finger very much on the pulse of the political landscape.
Being a staunch democrat who called Trump’ win in 2016 didn’t make him popular in the moment but when you analyze his system, it actually lines up…unfortunately. He also called Obama’s re-election in 2010, two years out for which he got a great deal of flack for by many pundits. He said however, the keys lined up that efficiently then and that swiftly. It’s a bold system overall which makes bold calls but you’re right, there’s no certainty but the track record is highly impressive and the analysis to the the way the keys work is very practical and I’m a practical/methodical type person when approaching politics for better and worse haha being there’s nothing practical about Trump running again period.
That doesn’t mean the keys system automatically changes because of which though. Anyway, take it with a grain of salt if you will. Like I said, I’m not solely relying on him to hopefully call Biden for total security moving forward haha. But, I can’t lie and say it won’t boost my overall confidence and instinctive optimism towards this election against seeming odds these days. Let’s just say until he’s proven wrong, there’s no reason for me not to lean into his system just a bit.
With the exception of the legit polling done here with Hopium led by Simon, polls and punditry often mean nothing! They’re all snapshots in time and the polling system has been long flawed and certainly showcased as such in 2016 and even in 2020 as well, as in the 2022 midterms…all of which Simon wisely acknowledges. The generic polling done that heightens all the tensions through the lenses of the mainstream media are not reflective of the majority National mood. They’re small samples of registered voters, not even actual voters and then all blown out of proportion in the media and by outlets like the Times and the Post whom I both greatly respect but should also know better at times.
That’s why as Simon has said before, the main polls that matter ahead of the election are the detailed ones conducted here as well as, the actual primary entrance/exit polls that revolve around real voters responding in real time which is what leads to the more productive narrative that Trump actually poses a more legitimate general election weakness than Biden.
Nonetheless, still much work to be done all around and nothing is settled until voting day and even beyond to be honest in hopes we take the house as well (for Johnson keeping the speakership through the certification process poses great concern regardless of what’s supposed to be normal procedure).
Just an FYI, if/when we take the house and Jeffries is elected speaker, he’ll be sworn in on Jan 3 next year…NOT Jan 6! But the 6th will still be the certification day. With a Biden win in that scenario, both Harris and Jeffries would be overseeing the certification process and ain’t nothing the GOP can do about it. Not to mention, with Biden/Harris in the WH, a similar or worse example of Jan 6 is far less likely in my opinion because of the intelligence we now have, the intelligence we’ll keep a close eye on throughout the whole sequence, as well as, the fact that both executive leaders are overwhelmingly more competent and would have oversight of the national guard and our national security from within instead of Trump and his cronies.
The threats are looming and they always will be which we just have to accept. But if we can coexist with that, work to counter it, but until then do as Simon says…do more, worry less…then, the better our chances are for full throttled success.
In Vegas, bookies offer plus-money returns on both candidates for the upcoming face-off between Trump and Biden. Trump remains the slight favorite at 6/5 (Bet $100 to win $120) to capture the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Biden is sitting at 5/4 odds (Bet $100 to win $125) to repeat. I don't think they know about Field Team 6, which is working hard to broaden the Democratic base using data mining from sources other than voter rolls.
I don't give betting advice (or any other kind of advice) but save democracy by registering Democrats. https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Here in Baghdad By The Sea you can hire a Babaloo to throw the otanes to devine the winner. You can also buy a Trump Hattian effigy doll with pins to insert where you want to inflict pain.
I personally like the tic tac toe playing chicken. When tourists play, the rule is the chicken goes first and is undefeated.
Just want to say that I don't think any one can predict the future. We can only make reasonable guesses based on the data in front of us, or what I often refer to as offering up what I think is the most likely thing to happen. I am not a big fan of big structural analyses of elections as I think every election is unique and not like any other. It's important to stay focused on the data about this election and not bring biases into the data. Central reason so many got 2022 wrong. They thought a red wave would come for it is usually what happens in mid-terms. So more often than not the data showing red wave was promoted, the data showing a competitive election dismissed. I try to keep close to the data in front of us about this election and will continue to offer my thoughts about what I am seeing. Thanks! Simon
And btw calling Trump in 2016 is no feather in anyone's cap because 10 days out the election was over and HRC was going to win by 5-6 points and then Comey intervened and gave the race to Trump.
You said it Jan. All I could remember thinking was - goddammit she never gets a break ! I don't think it was the only reason she lost, there's no question it played a huge role
Thanks Simon. Like I said, I’m not solely relying on the model. The work we do here is more effective which I believe someone like Lichtman actually knows. I do appreciate however, his macro approach to elections similar to that of yours which is partly why I was excited to join and follow Hopium in the first place.
More often than not, I believe the majority of voters (even subconsciously) go in on Election Day and vote with a very macro perspective. ‘Who do I feel will be the safer choice of the two moving forward?’ I think that essentially will be the question posed by many this election particularly, by the moderate/independent voters who aren’t fully devoted to either Biden nor Trump. Being I believe they’re aware of the mere mentions of Trump possibly not leaving if re-elected, ‘wanting to be a dictator for a day,’ potentially being a convicted felon, and too apologetic for Putin…all gives me cautious optimism towards that pivotal faction of voters choosing Biden as the safer choice.
Yes, immigration, the economy, and crime all matter but in my view, much more though towards congressional races. I firmly believe however, the relationship between women’s healthcare at the center of this election (for I’m sticking to my instinct that women will ultimately determine this election) in connection with the preservation of our Democratic Republic…will be the macro/crucial combination that ultimately drives voter turnout.
Not to mention, both are being underestimated by the GOP and even a tad by the democrats as I feel Biden long thought the economy was where the main focus was going to be until now once AZ came through to remind us of the sleeping giant that awoke once Roe was overturned.
Healthcare is more immediately affecting a resonant than nearly any issue in America and when women in particular, are feeling that right being depleted and on top of that, make up both the majority of the country and the majority voting bloc…like you’ve expressed, that’s not to be taken lightly. Hence, why in spite all the noise and muck circulating, I rather be Biden/Harris in their position than Trump in his as you say. Thanks again for all you do.
Lichtman seems like a decent guy, but really he's just guessing based on gut feelings over his own criteria; others have their own secret sauce, and election prediction successes are a really small sample. I don't put much stock in him or anyone else with a crystal ball. I do remember he got 2016 right for the wrong reasons. Even today, people have a hundred reasons, all blaming HRC, for her loss, when it is pretty settled that the main reason was Comey. FWIW, I remember stories the day before the 2004 election writing eulogies for W. We know how that turned out.
Thanks for the very encouraging update Simon. It gave me a lot of hope. I called my Representative Victoria Spartz's Office and registered my disapproval. This is not the first time. I don't understand her at all. She is from Ukraine for God's sake!! How can she not support Aid for them?! Getting ready to Call Speaker Johnson's office as well.
I wish there was more we could do. Just trying to keep the Faith!! ❤️🇺🇸💙
Listening to Michael Moore’s podcast he’s so angry at Biden for aiding the killing of Palestinians and now thinks it could tank Biden in November. But if Biden pulled support to Israel today I ask what would happen with his Jewish support??
Ah so he's back to making ugly noises is he. And WTF is he doing to help? I'm very hit or miss with Michael Moore these days. I understand where he's coming from, but I swear he dramatizes ( like when I decided to "turn" on Biden sometimes). Again I understand his support of the Palestinian community- and I'm with him on that - but I swear if he goes to far with his anger at Biden he could inadvertently end up helping Trump ??!! Arrrggghhh. Seriously I hope there are things Biden can do to appease this community! Now I'm thinking about that damn WaPo article someone shared here a month ago. Sigh.....
Seriously at a certain point I hope he shuts up a little and starts campaigning for him somewhat the way he did in 2020. We need as many of us on the same page as possible!
Thank you Simon for again making some sense out of nonsense. I just became a monthly donor to the Democratic Party so they can better estimate their funding. I think it makes more sense than trying to figure out which of the dozens of donation requests I get weekly, I should give to.
How do we fix the flaws In our way of governing to prevent a handful MAGA congressmen from endangering world order and national security? Ukraine falling would topple democracy and have a domino effect. Russia now owns the GOP.
We need to start by emphasizing the importance of every down ballot race so as to elect more democrats so we aren't at the mercy of the GOP ( Gaslighting Oligarchs for Putin) - so we can pass laws that make it harder for these rotten bastards to hold decency hostage!
On Sunday, the Washington Post reported that "a contingency of House Republicans privately have been saying that there is no way Johnson can strike an agreement that appeases a fractious GOP conference."
That being the case, it's a pointless waste of time for Speaker Johnson to do anything other than bring the Senate-passed aid bill (HR 815) to the floor of the House. If Mr. Johnson won't do it himself, then that "contingency of House Republicans" needs to sign the Discharge Petition now. Only 218 signatures are needed, and the 195 currently on it includes only one Republican.
Everyone reading this can help by calling Republican Representatives and urging them to sign the discharge petition for HR 815, to expedite delivery of military assistance for Ukraine before it's too late.
Two influential pro-Ukraine Republicans named in the WaPo article are Michael Turner (R-OH) 202-225-6465, and Michael McCaul (R-TX) 202-225-2401.
You can call the U S Capitol switchboard (202) 224-3121 to connect with any Representative. Speaker Johnson's office number is (202) 225-4000. Call him to insist that he encourage Republicans to sign the petition.
For phone numbers of about about two dozen other Republicans known to support Ukraine aid, please click on recent Ukraine-related posts at:
https://www.FeathersOfHope.net
.
I just called and left messages for Turner, McCaul and Johnson. Got right through to a human being except for the Johnson call. I love this site so much. Thank you for this info, Jerry.
thank you Janice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jerry this was very helpful. Thank you. S
thank you; done
Thnxx very much, Jerry. I called the illustrious Sens. Graham and Scott, then called two friends to ask them to call, and both did! It's empowering for us in red states to have something we can ask Republican legislators to do and think they might comply.
Jerry, just out of curiosity: which democrats have yet to sign the Discharge Petition? Do you have the names? Or why? Probably high time to give them a call as well!
ArticStones: Here’s a list:⬇️
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTaMB3k5Z37OAM8HEMhDtwbLGzwn1wDXSNcoTmXEJbpfbacfp-m0fJGyb36lcNOhgqGO5-bArbibS5a/pubhtml?gid=614612044&single=true
Many thanks! Looks like most or all of The Squad, plus a smattering of others.
Thanks for the link, Kathy.
The reason some Dems haven't signed is that they object to sending military assistance to Israel due to their conduct of the Gaza operation. But the aid package (HR 815) also includes humanitarian assistance for civilians in both Gaza and Ukraine.
I've advocated that they sign the petition so HR 815 can be brought to the floor for a vote by all members. They can then vote against it if that's what they want to do.
Ukraine should not be punished because of Israel's war.
Yes, HR 815 includes humanitarian aid to Gaza etc. If I remember correctly, the stripped-down alternatives specifically omit this. One way or another, military aid to Israel is going to pass; the only way these Democrats can ensure humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in Gaza IS TO SUPPORT HR 815.
Thanks! I’ve been calling Johnson almost daily, just called again including these other two. I used a zip code from their districts. I also pressured my rep, Jayapal, who is holding out on the discharge petition for other reasons. I’m so angry at her and her conference.
I'm concerned that Johnson will bring an Israel-only bill to the floor in order to try and divide Dems. He tried this before and his own conference tanked it but doesn't mean he won't try again. But here we do more and worry less so I am going to call my Rep and continue to work on Vote Forward letters.
“Don’t get bullied”
For sure.
And don’t forget: the party that always stood up to Russian aggression now accommodates the Putin wing.
Reagan would be ashamed with how Trump and his pathetic sycophants ruined the GOP.
There is a chunk of me that really really wants RFK Jr to be Trump's VP pick! Seriously. Not kidding.
I've contacted both my current and my prior Rep about the Senate Supplemental. Done.
I'd still rather be us than them -- but a big part of that is because WE care about the welfare of others, of all peoples, all living things. But it is nervous making that Donald Trump and his Putinesque Republican Party are the ones controlling the politics of the essentials of goverance (Ukraine, Gaza, immigration/border etc) and democracy.
Trump is conducting a Shadow Government of Obstruction without let-up. I think it has infected, the US psyche. Thank heavens for Simon keeping us clear headed and focused.
I don’t like bullies or being bullied. I’m on vacation but will call the reps this morning. Aloha!
Absolutely need to rethink military aid to Israel with no strings attached. See NYT Sunday editorial, as well many other commentators, orgs. (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/13/opinion/israel-military-aid.html).
There are a few realities about what's happening in Israel that folks need to keep in mind:
1) Iran has genocidal intent for Israel and Jews. It has spent billions of dollars to build up their proxies in Hamas and in Hizbollah, right on the border of Israel, a very small nation. One of their proxies attacked Israel in October. Hizbollah continues to shoot rockets in Israel and threaten Israel from the North. On Saturday Iran launched an attack on Israel that if had it gone unchallenged could have devastated the country and led to more attacks from Iran and its proxies, threatening the very existence of Israel itself. 2) Hamas did not have to choose to affiliate with Iran, and now Russia. They are part of an alliance that is committing genocide in Ukraine, and attempting genocide in Israel. The people responsible for the death of Gazans is Hamas and Iran far more than Israel, for they placed their military underneath and in civilian populations, knowing that for Israel to retaliate people would die. This was their choice, their doing and far more blame needs to be placed on Hamas/Iran for the sacrifice of innocent lives to achieve their genocidal intent in Israel. 3) Saudi Arabia and Jordan worked along side the US, Israel and the UK to prevent the attack on Israel from being effective. So yes leaders of the Arab world came to Israel's defense. 4) Yes Bibi must go if we are to have any chance at a lasting peace in the region.
Putting strings on funding for Israel in the short term is in my mind no longer practical from a military or political standpoint given what happened this weekend, but let's see how the debate unfolds. But this debate can no longer happen outside the broader political realities I describe here. This is about the Russian-Iranian axis and their aggression far more than it is about Gaza itself, and the ongoing refusal to see and account for that is distorting the reality of what's happening here.
You should really write this up as an op-ed and shop it to someone; it needs more eyeballs. It's probably the best summation I've seen on this issue, which I get very emotional about .
Truly hope you read and take to heart Simon’s reply.
Regarding the Election is Getting Bluer:
What Polls Are Most Important?
ROBERT EISENSTAT
APR 15
READ IN APP
There has been a lot of emphasis in Hopium on polls that track the overall US prospective voters, but much less that focuses on the swing states. We know that there have been multiple elections, such as Gore and Clinton, where the candidate with the overall popular vote lost. Shouldn’t we be focusing on swing state polls, and pushing harder in these locations?
such as :
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4573357-joe-biden-donald-trump-nevada-arizona-michigan-wisconsin-pennsylvania-georgia-polls/
Simon has responded to this question/issue multiple times in other threads, so in hopes of giving him a brief break, I'll chime in: nobody is unaware of the importance of the swing states, and everyone on this substack is, indeed, pushing hard in the swing states (I, myself, just wrote 5 more postcards to Nevada just this morning. I write swing state postcards every day, and I'm far from the only one). But two issues regarding swing state polling:
a) the polling cited at your link, by and large, represents much smaller polling samples, and less-current polls, from less-reputable pollsters than the national polls generally cited here at Hopium.
b) As the race has trended more toward Biden over the past several weeks, we're starting to see more swing state polls favoring Biden, including +3 in MI, +7 in PA, and a functional tie in NC. The more (and longer) the national polling trends toward Biden, the more such state polling we'll see...
...IF we keep working hard, every single day. So let's keep working hard! Every single day!
Thanks Patrick. Yes there is very little polling in the swing states. We much more polling nationally so the data is just richer and better. I don't know that the GOP will have a slight advantage in the battlegrounds. They didn't in 2022. May happen. And yes my expectation that as the national numbers improve so will the states, and have already seen us ahead in MI, PA, WI in recent polls and the NC polling last week was encouraging. The election is changing so any polls that are more than 3-4 weeks old just aren't relevant any more.
Franklin $ Marshall has Biden +8 in Pa.
Great answer! And may I add, we still want to focus on the national popular vote because we want to keep the Senate and flip the house, and win every possible state assembly, state senate, mayoralty, city council, school board, water district board, county commission, county recorder, sheriff, and dog catcher race that we can in all 50 states! That means doing as well as we possibly can everywhere that we have Democrats running that we want to boost on the ballot. The better Joe Biden does Ohio, even if he doesn’t win it, the more likely Sharod Brown is to hold his seat in the United States Senate. The better Joe Biden does in California, the more likely we are to flip four or five house seats there back to Democrats.… The same is true in New York, Florida, Arizona, you name it. Some states will be swing states at the presidential level, but all states have Democrats running down ballot that will benefit from a stronger Biden performance nationally regardless of whether he wins that particular state or not. A down ballot candidate could have as much as a 5 to 10 point over performance of Biden‘s numbers in their district or state… But if the top of the ticket does really poorly in that district or state, it could drag down the baseline. So a candidate that will outperform Biden by five points down ballot, will win the race if Biden gets 45% of the vote, and might lose the race if he only gets 43% of the vote in that district or state. So… even though the national popular vote doesn’t guarantee an electoral college victory, we have to care about both. 😎👍🇺🇸
You might be interested in this upcoming Zoom from Sister District
https://www.mobilize.us/sisterdistrictactionnetwork/event/615748/
Join Sister District Action Network as we present findings from our battleground-state survey of voter behavior in state legislative races, conducted in partnership with Data for Progress
In this briefing:
* The challenge of down-ballot roll-off
* Roll-off voter demographics
* Potential reasons why people skip voting in state legislative races
* Preview of upcoming research
* Q&A
Cool! Thank you, Cheryl!
Simon, i realized I posted this on a previous comment board from one of your previous postings from a couple weeks ago and meant to save this for the most recent. Sorry I’m advance for being very verbose here.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on Professor/Historian Alan Lichtman and his 13 Keys to the WH system which he has effectively curated decades ago and has subsequently used to successfully predict every presidential election since 1984 including both Trump in 2106 and Biden in 2020. He is a staunch Democrat and has yet to make his official call for this election (likely by July/August). Are you familiar with his system? If so, have you ever touched base with him at all? He has informed his followers of having spoken with President Biden in the past about the keys and noted he ‘understood’ the system and also noted when he explained them to Trump in the past, he ‘did not’ predictably so.
Right now, the keys are shifting in Biden’s favor with four of them officially called for him (incumbency, no significant democratic primary challenger, no party in fighting, and having made major policy change) and two officially called against him (no midterm gains and not a charismatic incumbent). The system revolves solely around the party holding the WH in any given election. The data shows when the incumbent party has five or fewer keys turned false against them, they win the election. However, if they have six or more false against them, they lose.
This system has proven effective for decades and I find it fascinating and very Insightful and think Hopium would too. The way they’re leaning, Biden could secure a good eight or nine of the thirteen which would then ‘win him the election’ according to the keys. The keys most up in the air at the moment are both foreign policy success/failure keys depending on the trajectories of both Ukraine and the Middle East as it gets closer to the election (hopefully, more Ukraine aid will pass and maybe Jeffries will even become speaker before the election…one never knows, and hopefully, Netanyahu gets voted out sooner than later as Israel deserves better) as well as, the third party key. However being RFK is not an ‘unusually popular’ third party candidate, Lichtman suggested whatever his polling numbers are now, will likely be cut in half by November…God willing. I see your data however, that supports his theory already and early so RFK doesn’t concern me as much as it does others.
Long as the economic keys (both short term and long term) keep in Biden’s favor as well as, no mass social unrest that amounts to that of the civil rights riots, Jan 6, or the BLM protests (all highly unlikely before the election), no scandal (as Hunter and no official impeachment of Biden does not amount to the level of scandal necessary to turn the key )—-then Biden can solidify enough keys to win the election according to the system.
Obviously mass voter turnout will help as per usual and we shouldn’t solely rely only on the system without doing the work and worrying less like you say. However, it’s definitely worth looking into and maybe using to help mesh with the current political strategies at hand. Lichtman notes that ‘issues’ don’t affect general elections but rather, congressional races as general elections are big picture driven which I tend to agree with.
However, this is the first election women are walking into where they have less rights than in the 20th century. So, if any ‘issues’ will actually have an impact from the top down this election, it will be the relationship between women’s healthcare and preservation of democracy even more than that of immigration, the economy, and crime. In that case, I much rather be Biden in his position than Trump in his. Especially, as AZ is now more in play than ever before catapulting the abortion issue back to front and center. I called it before that once Roe was overturned, a sleeping giant was awoken and she ain’t going back to sleep anytime soon. I feel the same with regards to Russia/Ukraine in the wake of Navalny’s death as well.
I digress…If Biden can win AZ, that would literally make it extremely difficult for Trump to win according to the data and numbers given the electoral makeup. Anyway, just thought the 13 Keys would interest you. I would love to hear any feedback. Thanks again for all you do. Your work that alongside Lincoln Project, Midas Touch, and others are all vital and I believe secret weapons towards winning this election from the top down.
Isn't Lichtman the guy in the spring/summer 2019 who was saying the Democrats had to Impeach Trump in order to win in 2020? I was always skeptical how diagnostic his tools were when he was saying it didn't matter what they impeached Trump over. While I think the First Trump Impeachment was justified I do not know if the general public would agree. It was hard to understand for the general electorate at the time, and Trump had already done so many easier to understand crimes.
I have always been skeptical of anyone who says if you do these 13 things x will happen. I mean sure maybe, but it almost always these 13 things are good to have if you want x to happen. We can imagine Biden or Trump having all of the factors on his list, and having a late health emergency and still lose.
Lichtman stresses that while his model has proven accurate thus far, it’s still an executive prediction when all set and done and not a matter of certainty. He makes a call though according to his keys and sticks with it which I admire because right or wrong, he doesn’t retreat nor does he ever answer hypotheticals.
If you look up the 13 keys to the WH on Wikipedia, it literally lays out the entire model key by key and shows a colored grid displaying Lichtman’s calls and how each election cycle matched up with the keys. Granted, he said deciding or turning any key is objective in and of itself but he’s had decades of practice if you will, to help perfect the way he officiates any keys. Heath related issues are always a wild card mind you, but assuming both make it through to the end, I happen to feel the keys are worth keeping in the side view mirror.
Like you, I’m naturally skeptical towards diagnostics and prediction models for the mere reality there can be potential shake ups which disrupt those models. However, Lichtman’ model has proven unique amongst the many that get thrown out into the zeitgeist. Not to mention, he’s an exceptional historian and like the best of observers in the game today like Simon, Heather Cox Richardson, Rick Wilson, Tara Setmeyer, and more…he too has his finger very much on the pulse of the political landscape.
Being a staunch democrat who called Trump’ win in 2016 didn’t make him popular in the moment but when you analyze his system, it actually lines up…unfortunately. He also called Obama’s re-election in 2010, two years out for which he got a great deal of flack for by many pundits. He said however, the keys lined up that efficiently then and that swiftly. It’s a bold system overall which makes bold calls but you’re right, there’s no certainty but the track record is highly impressive and the analysis to the the way the keys work is very practical and I’m a practical/methodical type person when approaching politics for better and worse haha being there’s nothing practical about Trump running again period.
That doesn’t mean the keys system automatically changes because of which though. Anyway, take it with a grain of salt if you will. Like I said, I’m not solely relying on him to hopefully call Biden for total security moving forward haha. But, I can’t lie and say it won’t boost my overall confidence and instinctive optimism towards this election against seeming odds these days. Let’s just say until he’s proven wrong, there’s no reason for me not to lean into his system just a bit.
With the exception of the legit polling done here with Hopium led by Simon, polls and punditry often mean nothing! They’re all snapshots in time and the polling system has been long flawed and certainly showcased as such in 2016 and even in 2020 as well, as in the 2022 midterms…all of which Simon wisely acknowledges. The generic polling done that heightens all the tensions through the lenses of the mainstream media are not reflective of the majority National mood. They’re small samples of registered voters, not even actual voters and then all blown out of proportion in the media and by outlets like the Times and the Post whom I both greatly respect but should also know better at times.
That’s why as Simon has said before, the main polls that matter ahead of the election are the detailed ones conducted here as well as, the actual primary entrance/exit polls that revolve around real voters responding in real time which is what leads to the more productive narrative that Trump actually poses a more legitimate general election weakness than Biden.
Nonetheless, still much work to be done all around and nothing is settled until voting day and even beyond to be honest in hopes we take the house as well (for Johnson keeping the speakership through the certification process poses great concern regardless of what’s supposed to be normal procedure).
Just an FYI, if/when we take the house and Jeffries is elected speaker, he’ll be sworn in on Jan 3 next year…NOT Jan 6! But the 6th will still be the certification day. With a Biden win in that scenario, both Harris and Jeffries would be overseeing the certification process and ain’t nothing the GOP can do about it. Not to mention, with Biden/Harris in the WH, a similar or worse example of Jan 6 is far less likely in my opinion because of the intelligence we now have, the intelligence we’ll keep a close eye on throughout the whole sequence, as well as, the fact that both executive leaders are overwhelmingly more competent and would have oversight of the national guard and our national security from within instead of Trump and his cronies.
The threats are looming and they always will be which we just have to accept. But if we can coexist with that, work to counter it, but until then do as Simon says…do more, worry less…then, the better our chances are for full throttled success.
In Vegas, bookies offer plus-money returns on both candidates for the upcoming face-off between Trump and Biden. Trump remains the slight favorite at 6/5 (Bet $100 to win $120) to capture the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Biden is sitting at 5/4 odds (Bet $100 to win $125) to repeat. I don't think they know about Field Team 6, which is working hard to broaden the Democratic base using data mining from sources other than voter rolls.
I don't give betting advice (or any other kind of advice) but save democracy by registering Democrats. https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Here in Baghdad By The Sea you can hire a Babaloo to throw the otanes to devine the winner. You can also buy a Trump Hattian effigy doll with pins to insert where you want to inflict pain.
I personally like the tic tac toe playing chicken. When tourists play, the rule is the chicken goes first and is undefeated.
But my money is with Hopium!
Just want to say that I don't think any one can predict the future. We can only make reasonable guesses based on the data in front of us, or what I often refer to as offering up what I think is the most likely thing to happen. I am not a big fan of big structural analyses of elections as I think every election is unique and not like any other. It's important to stay focused on the data about this election and not bring biases into the data. Central reason so many got 2022 wrong. They thought a red wave would come for it is usually what happens in mid-terms. So more often than not the data showing red wave was promoted, the data showing a competitive election dismissed. I try to keep close to the data in front of us about this election and will continue to offer my thoughts about what I am seeing. Thanks! Simon
And btw calling Trump in 2016 is no feather in anyone's cap because 10 days out the election was over and HRC was going to win by 5-6 points and then Comey intervened and gave the race to Trump.
I still remember that gut punch feeling when that came out. I will never get over it.
You said it Jan. All I could remember thinking was - goddammit she never gets a break ! I don't think it was the only reason she lost, there's no question it played a huge role
Thanks Simon. Like I said, I’m not solely relying on the model. The work we do here is more effective which I believe someone like Lichtman actually knows. I do appreciate however, his macro approach to elections similar to that of yours which is partly why I was excited to join and follow Hopium in the first place.
More often than not, I believe the majority of voters (even subconsciously) go in on Election Day and vote with a very macro perspective. ‘Who do I feel will be the safer choice of the two moving forward?’ I think that essentially will be the question posed by many this election particularly, by the moderate/independent voters who aren’t fully devoted to either Biden nor Trump. Being I believe they’re aware of the mere mentions of Trump possibly not leaving if re-elected, ‘wanting to be a dictator for a day,’ potentially being a convicted felon, and too apologetic for Putin…all gives me cautious optimism towards that pivotal faction of voters choosing Biden as the safer choice.
Yes, immigration, the economy, and crime all matter but in my view, much more though towards congressional races. I firmly believe however, the relationship between women’s healthcare at the center of this election (for I’m sticking to my instinct that women will ultimately determine this election) in connection with the preservation of our Democratic Republic…will be the macro/crucial combination that ultimately drives voter turnout.
Not to mention, both are being underestimated by the GOP and even a tad by the democrats as I feel Biden long thought the economy was where the main focus was going to be until now once AZ came through to remind us of the sleeping giant that awoke once Roe was overturned.
Healthcare is more immediately affecting a resonant than nearly any issue in America and when women in particular, are feeling that right being depleted and on top of that, make up both the majority of the country and the majority voting bloc…like you’ve expressed, that’s not to be taken lightly. Hence, why in spite all the noise and muck circulating, I rather be Biden/Harris in their position than Trump in his as you say. Thanks again for all you do.
Lichtman seems like a decent guy, but really he's just guessing based on gut feelings over his own criteria; others have their own secret sauce, and election prediction successes are a really small sample. I don't put much stock in him or anyone else with a crystal ball. I do remember he got 2016 right for the wrong reasons. Even today, people have a hundred reasons, all blaming HRC, for her loss, when it is pretty settled that the main reason was Comey. FWIW, I remember stories the day before the 2004 election writing eulogies for W. We know how that turned out.
All three contacted.
Thanks for the very encouraging update Simon. It gave me a lot of hope. I called my Representative Victoria Spartz's Office and registered my disapproval. This is not the first time. I don't understand her at all. She is from Ukraine for God's sake!! How can she not support Aid for them?! Getting ready to Call Speaker Johnson's office as well.
I wish there was more we could do. Just trying to keep the Faith!! ❤️🇺🇸💙
Contacted my R Congressman to vote in favor of Ukraine funding.
Listening to Michael Moore’s podcast he’s so angry at Biden for aiding the killing of Palestinians and now thinks it could tank Biden in November. But if Biden pulled support to Israel today I ask what would happen with his Jewish support??
Ah so he's back to making ugly noises is he. And WTF is he doing to help? I'm very hit or miss with Michael Moore these days. I understand where he's coming from, but I swear he dramatizes ( like when I decided to "turn" on Biden sometimes). Again I understand his support of the Palestinian community- and I'm with him on that - but I swear if he goes to far with his anger at Biden he could inadvertently end up helping Trump ??!! Arrrggghhh. Seriously I hope there are things Biden can do to appease this community! Now I'm thinking about that damn WaPo article someone shared here a month ago. Sigh.....
Seriously at a certain point I hope he shuts up a little and starts campaigning for him somewhat the way he did in 2020. We need as many of us on the same page as possible!
Do all of the contributions made to the Biden Harris campaign through Hopium go to their campaign or does Hopium keep part of it.
All of it goes directly to the campaign. We've raised over $1m so far this cycle directly into campaigns.....
That’s great! We are in!
Excellent, detailed and informative interview with Pres Zelenskyy on PBS Newshour. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/exclusive-zelenskyy-says-without-u-s-aid-well-have-no-chance-of-winning
Thank you Simon for again making some sense out of nonsense. I just became a monthly donor to the Democratic Party so they can better estimate their funding. I think it makes more sense than trying to figure out which of the dozens of donation requests I get weekly, I should give to.
How do we fix the flaws In our way of governing to prevent a handful MAGA congressmen from endangering world order and national security? Ukraine falling would topple democracy and have a domino effect. Russia now owns the GOP.
We need to start by emphasizing the importance of every down ballot race so as to elect more democrats so we aren't at the mercy of the GOP ( Gaslighting Oligarchs for Putin) - so we can pass laws that make it harder for these rotten bastards to hold decency hostage!