Hmm....I didn't like the findings in that poll, 54 % support a 15 week ban? I find that incredibly hard to believe, but it sounds like we have some work to do on informing people about this issue ( incredibly ) and how leaving it up to the states consigns millions of women to drastic restrictions on their reproductive choices.
And how a 15 week ban is just a slick cover up for continue to deny women our rights to safe and effective healthcare and autonomy over our own bodies.
I was walking this morning and scrolling through podcasts and stumbled on this one. Thought, well I already know what Simon has to say, so I'll skip it. In the end I played it and I have to say, it was the best interview I've heard him give; it was in depth, and I was particularly interested in Simon's comments on Hispanic voters, being married into a large Hispanic family myself. It may have been the best analysis I've heard from a non-Hispanic analyst ( full disclosure; my nephew is a producer at a Spanish network ) to date. In short, while percentages of voters may have eroded some, the overall pie is bigger, and we are getting a nice share, if I heard correctly.
I need to update this analysis, but it's a deep dive into what has been one our most successful party wide strategies over the past 25 years - our gains with Hispanic voters. LMK what you think - S
Let's enlarge the Court to 13 (so each oversees only one federal appeals court). The first two nominees to the Supremes: Kamala Harris and Merrick Garland.
I would suggest Michelle Obama in place of Vice President Harris. I think we need her as VP just in case President Biden has to leave office during his next term. I would love to see a female President and a woman of color just sweetens that prospect for me!
hta240 - I've removed your other post. It is inappropriate for us here at Hopium. Can't come on here and dump your anxiety and worry like that. Not what we do here.
The Republikkkans have taken a page from tRump's book (brochure), and is probably lying her ass off. She and her ill-gotten ilk want to scare people into staying home, particularly the less physically able and the less passionate among us.
I appreciate your assessment, Simon. It’s early. Seems like Trump has hit his ceiling and Biden has bottomed out. I see Trump declining and Biden climbing.
I remained tethered to Texas and Michigan. Had a long lunch meeting with an old friend who was a senior member of both GOP Gov Milliken and Rick Snyder’s staffs (ran a political/public policy consulting firm in between). He understands Michigan politics.
He believes Biden will carry Michigan. He supported Nikki Haley in the primary. No surprise: He will vote Biden in the fall.
I've done political work in Michigan and the folks I know there are very bullish on our chances this fall. Like other states the local GOP has gone totally crazy and people know it. It is a big problem for them.
Yup. No money and no organization. Last time I checked, the rival state GOP factions had separate web sites. It took a court offer to remove the bat-$hit crazy MAGA state GOP chairwoman.
She tried to sell the state party headquarters in Lansing to pay bills. Too dumb to realize the party didn’t own the property. A trust does.
And Gov Whitmir has a pretty strong organization. It’s early. But…..
And it’s not like Pete Hoekstra, the new MI-GOP chair, is a brain trust himself. He ran an incredibly stupid campaign against Debbie Stabenow back in 2012 (or 2014) and lost bigly.
For any postcard writers out there, I got an email this morning from "Tony the Democrat" at Postcards to Voters (www.postcardstovoters.org) for a new campaign.
"We've been asked to write to a targeted list of voters to boost turnout for Democrat John Barrow's bid to the Georgia Supreme Court.
From the campaign: "This election will shape the Georgia Supreme Court for years to come. And that court is the only court in the land that can strike down Georgia's strict abortion ban and restore women's right to make their own private medical decisions, including the right to abortion."
This is another short turn-around-time campaign and the text address bot is currently (still?) not working. I have also had issues with address bot on Slack (Window's version) but when I downloaded the Slack app onto my Android tablet it worked fine. NOTE: There are instructions on their website on how to email and request addresses, but it is definitely the least convenient methods and requires multiple back and forth emails.
I honestly love that you went on The Bulwark Podcast as they are one of my favorite groups to follow! It was a wonderful episode and so encouraging to hear. Thank you for being a light during these difficult days.
Enjoyed your interview with Tim Miller, especially on the heels of the absolute buffoonery of the once venerated SCOTUS. I am more convinced than ever that we need to not only win but win BIG to beat back any chance of them corruptly attempting to put their thumbs on the scale for the orange one. Thanks for keeping us focused. Donated again to Ruben Gallego and Anderson Clayton’s efforts, and I have a monthly donation going to Biden/Harris! 👊
Thank you for continuing to keep my spirits up about this election. So many discouraging headlines run across my email. I appreciate your keeping up with all the details and diving deep into the statistics.
It is preordained that RFK Jr will siphon off Trump voters. They can pick Nikki but look at these facts. 1) Junior is an anti-vaxer. Trump is an anti vaxxer. Junior is anti abortion, Trump is anti abortion. I don’t see an impact on Biden.
"I am not an advocate for frequent changes in laws and constitutions, but laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths discovered and manners and opinions change, with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also to keep pace with the times. We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him when a boy as a civilized society to remain ever under the regimen of their barbarous ancestors."
-Excerpted from a letter to Samuel Kercheval, July 12, 1816.
For people who think voting doesn't matter, The attorney general in Arizona won her election in Nov 2022 by 245 votes. Otherwise we wouldn't have maga charged in the false electors scheme
By August or September, polls in this presidential election should give us a clearer picture of whats going to happen
In NC, Cherie Beasley lost her bid for reelection to NC Supreme Court in 2020 by ~600 votes. Had she won the GOP wouldn't have had the opportunity to re-gerrymander the maps, implement the Voter ID law that the prior (more left-leaning) court had stayed and probably would never have gotten the super majority in both chambers of the state legislature and wouldn't have been able to pass the current 12-wk abortion ban.
The always-excellent Bolts Magazine, edited by Daniel Nichanian, has an overview of this year’s elections for State Supreme Court Justices. As you point out, these all-too-often-overseen elections really, really matter!
Bolts does a great job of covering details you won’t find systematically collated anywhere else. For example, state-by-state overviews of referenda, elected judgeships, sheriffs’ races, important DA races… Lots of stellar, in-depth articles.
I’ve been following Daniel Nichanian (Twitter handle Taniel) since long before he founded Bolts.
In 2020. Cheri Beasley lost the race for US Senate to Ted Budd, a wealthy Republican. As a congressman, Budd voted not to certify Joe Biden's election, making him a seditionist.
The mention of polls with mostly Republicans or funded with Republican money reinforced my determination to ignore polls. They are skewed in so many ways, designed to achieve a certain result. The poll that matters is the election. I figure if Democrats work their butts off to connect with voters, donate to their candidates, and get out the vote, we can win.
Robin, to answer your two questions 1) we know they are going to try all sorts of stuff this year. It's why we have to work hard and try to run up the score so it becomes far less likely they are successful 2) they want you to feel hopeless, and give up. We don't do that here. We do more, worry less. 3) We have a no dumping rule here. Can't just come and dump your worry and anxiety here. It's not productive. We come here to channel our anxiety into concrete action. Many this week made calls for Ukraine. In my "do more, worry less" section you give and volunteer for important projects. Ask questions, engage others, but let's stay focused on strategies, actions - doing - and not worry.
Can’t wait to listen to the Bulwark discussion. Just finished another batch of NC Vote Forward letters and will start on NV postcards this week. Keep working hard everyone!
I am currently writing postcards for a Dem candidate, Nicole Sidman, in an NC state house race in a neighboring district. She is running against the turncoat, Tricia Cotham, who flipped from (D) to (R) mid-term, giving the Repubs a supermajority in both chambers of the statehouse. The GOP "gifted" her with a redrawn, R-leaning district, but the Mecklenburg County Dems are fired up and are definitely gunning for her!!
After we finish those postcards we will be writing Postcards to Swing States (https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/) for NC - one of 11 swing states that they are working in for 2024 cycle. Anyone can get in on this action and order the postcards for free along with names and addresses and messaging - you provide the labor and the stamps. The caveat is that you have to order at least 200 postcards which you will hold to mail in October.
You can sign up now - all their campaigns are live. It could make a break from writing Vote Forward Letters! I'm falling a little behind with my Vote Forward letters between postcards for various campaigns plus letters to voters in NC for VoteRiders. (I found out about the latter from BigTent USA (https://www.bigtentusa.org/take-action-2/)
Hmm....I didn't like the findings in that poll, 54 % support a 15 week ban? I find that incredibly hard to believe, but it sounds like we have some work to do on informing people about this issue ( incredibly ) and how leaving it up to the states consigns millions of women to drastic restrictions on their reproductive choices.
And how a 15 week ban is just a slick cover up for continue to deny women our rights to safe and effective healthcare and autonomy over our own bodies.
I was walking this morning and scrolling through podcasts and stumbled on this one. Thought, well I already know what Simon has to say, so I'll skip it. In the end I played it and I have to say, it was the best interview I've heard him give; it was in depth, and I was particularly interested in Simon's comments on Hispanic voters, being married into a large Hispanic family myself. It may have been the best analysis I've heard from a non-Hispanic analyst ( full disclosure; my nephew is a producer at a Spanish network ) to date. In short, while percentages of voters may have eroded some, the overall pie is bigger, and we are getting a nice share, if I heard correctly.
Here's a presentation and data to back up my argument that it is Republicans who are eroding with Hispanics, not Democrats - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/videoanalysis-democrats-and-the-hispanic?utm_source=publication-search
I need to update this analysis, but it's a deep dive into what has been one our most successful party wide strategies over the past 25 years - our gains with Hispanic voters. LMK what you think - S
Simon's always terrific and it must said that Tim Miller is an excellent interviewer!
Let's enlarge the Court to 13 (so each oversees only one federal appeals court). The first two nominees to the Supremes: Kamala Harris and Merrick Garland.
May I humbly suggest nominating Anita Hill and Barack Obama to SCOTUS? And if he was younger, I would add Judge J. Michael Luttig.
I would suggest Michelle Obama in place of Vice President Harris. I think we need her as VP just in case President Biden has to leave office during his next term. I would love to see a female President and a woman of color just sweetens that prospect for me!
Yes, you are right. We should all give up.
Observation:
"Dobbs leads to Electile Dysfunction."
.
Eminently quotable:
"Thou shalt not mess with women’s reproductive rights."
– Fallopians 4:28
.
Imagined:
"Donald, how about we debate in front of the Fulton County Grand Jury?"
– Joe Biden
.
"E- Q-" Really?
hta240 - I've removed your other post. It is inappropriate for us here at Hopium. Can't come on here and dump your anxiety and worry like that. Not what we do here.
Real:
“We have lawsuits in 81 states right now.” 😂
-Lara Trump,RNC/Raging Dumpster Fire Chairman
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/lara-trump-81-states-rnc_n_66294c21e4b0edb0e80a1cef
Almost as many states as the number in which Tump and his acolytes are facing criminal charges.
Watch this short video of Brian Tyler Cohen and Marc Elias on teh topic of this same Lara Trump interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFZnjqaARho
As,Marc Elias said,check your voter reg status,encourage others to do so,and help them make a plan to vote! Opportunity for phonebanking in Florida😎:
https://www.mobilize.us/peoplepowerforflorida/ 📲
Elias also said maybe Lara Trump meant she has 81 tracts coming on her new album……. “Heaven help us!” 😱
I have NO control over what SCOTUS does but I do have control over how I respond.
And humor always helps !
Lara's remarks rank right up there with Tim Scott's claim that Democrats want to allow abortions up to 52 weeks of pregnancy.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tim-scott-52-weeks-abortion_n_62f16046e4b0c550161c79ba
The Republikkkans have taken a page from tRump's book (brochure), and is probably lying her ass off. She and her ill-gotten ilk want to scare people into staying home, particularly the less physically able and the less passionate among us.
So we prove them wrong!
I appreciate your assessment, Simon. It’s early. Seems like Trump has hit his ceiling and Biden has bottomed out. I see Trump declining and Biden climbing.
I remained tethered to Texas and Michigan. Had a long lunch meeting with an old friend who was a senior member of both GOP Gov Milliken and Rick Snyder’s staffs (ran a political/public policy consulting firm in between). He understands Michigan politics.
He believes Biden will carry Michigan. He supported Nikki Haley in the primary. No surprise: He will vote Biden in the fall.
I've done political work in Michigan and the folks I know there are very bullish on our chances this fall. Like other states the local GOP has gone totally crazy and people know it. It is a big problem for them.
Yup. No money and no organization. Last time I checked, the rival state GOP factions had separate web sites. It took a court offer to remove the bat-$hit crazy MAGA state GOP chairwoman.
She tried to sell the state party headquarters in Lansing to pay bills. Too dumb to realize the party didn’t own the property. A trust does.
And Gov Whitmir has a pretty strong organization. It’s early. But…..
And it’s not like Pete Hoekstra, the new MI-GOP chair, is a brain trust himself. He ran an incredibly stupid campaign against Debbie Stabenow back in 2012 (or 2014) and lost bigly.
It's like Joe Trippi said "We do the work, they do the crazy."
Illuminating interview with Tim Miller-thank you!
For any postcard writers out there, I got an email this morning from "Tony the Democrat" at Postcards to Voters (www.postcardstovoters.org) for a new campaign.
"We've been asked to write to a targeted list of voters to boost turnout for Democrat John Barrow's bid to the Georgia Supreme Court.
From the campaign: "This election will shape the Georgia Supreme Court for years to come. And that court is the only court in the land that can strike down Georgia's strict abortion ban and restore women's right to make their own private medical decisions, including the right to abortion."
This is another short turn-around-time campaign and the text address bot is currently (still?) not working. I have also had issues with address bot on Slack (Window's version) but when I downloaded the Slack app onto my Android tablet it worked fine. NOTE: There are instructions on their website on how to email and request addresses, but it is definitely the least convenient methods and requires multiple back and forth emails.
I honestly love that you went on The Bulwark Podcast as they are one of my favorite groups to follow! It was a wonderful episode and so encouraging to hear. Thank you for being a light during these difficult days.
Americans need and like a challenge. This is it. Win this one and we all win!
Enjoyed your interview with Tim Miller, especially on the heels of the absolute buffoonery of the once venerated SCOTUS. I am more convinced than ever that we need to not only win but win BIG to beat back any chance of them corruptly attempting to put their thumbs on the scale for the orange one. Thanks for keeping us focused. Donated again to Ruben Gallego and Anderson Clayton’s efforts, and I have a monthly donation going to Biden/Harris! 👊
I know George is a wealthy guy, but making the max donation for $900K+ to the Biden Campaign still says a lot about his commitment to Democracy.
And great theme 🎵 song!
Thank you for continuing to keep my spirits up about this election. So many discouraging headlines run across my email. I appreciate your keeping up with all the details and diving deep into the statistics.
It is preordained that RFK Jr will siphon off Trump voters. They can pick Nikki but look at these facts. 1) Junior is an anti-vaxer. Trump is an anti vaxxer. Junior is anti abortion, Trump is anti abortion. I don’t see an impact on Biden.
If Trump’s recent “truths” are to be believed, he appears to be freaking out about RFKJ now. Perhaps he saw the recent polls Simon mentioned. 😁
Southeast Portico:
"I am not an advocate for frequent changes in laws and constitutions, but laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths discovered and manners and opinions change, with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also to keep pace with the times. We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him when a boy as a civilized society to remain ever under the regimen of their barbarous ancestors."
-Excerpted from a letter to Samuel Kercheval, July 12, 1816.
Copy and archive: Will get a good picture
For people who think voting doesn't matter, The attorney general in Arizona won her election in Nov 2022 by 245 votes. Otherwise we wouldn't have maga charged in the false electors scheme
By August or September, polls in this presidential election should give us a clearer picture of whats going to happen
Her press conference was terrific. Very professional and thorough.
In NC, Cherie Beasley lost her bid for reelection to NC Supreme Court in 2020 by ~600 votes. Had she won the GOP wouldn't have had the opportunity to re-gerrymander the maps, implement the Voter ID law that the prior (more left-leaning) court had stayed and probably would never have gotten the super majority in both chambers of the state legislature and wouldn't have been able to pass the current 12-wk abortion ban.
We gotta get our folks to the polls! Too many Dems didn’t show up for Cheri. We must do better!
I agree!
The always-excellent Bolts Magazine, edited by Daniel Nichanian, has an overview of this year’s elections for State Supreme Court Justices. As you point out, these all-too-often-overseen elections really, really matter!
https://boltsmag.org/your-state-by-state-guide-to-the-2024-supreme-court-elections/
Thanks! I was not familiar with this publication.
Bolts does a great job of covering details you won’t find systematically collated anywhere else. For example, state-by-state overviews of referenda, elected judgeships, sheriffs’ races, important DA races… Lots of stellar, in-depth articles.
I’ve been following Daniel Nichanian (Twitter handle Taniel) since long before he founded Bolts.
In 2020. Cheri Beasley lost the race for US Senate to Ted Budd, a wealthy Republican. As a congressman, Budd voted not to certify Joe Biden's election, making him a seditionist.
The mention of polls with mostly Republicans or funded with Republican money reinforced my determination to ignore polls. They are skewed in so many ways, designed to achieve a certain result. The poll that matters is the election. I figure if Democrats work their butts off to connect with voters, donate to their candidates, and get out the vote, we can win.
"I figure if Democrats work their butts off to connect with voters, donate to their candidates, and get out the vote, we can win."
Me too!
Robin, to answer your two questions 1) we know they are going to try all sorts of stuff this year. It's why we have to work hard and try to run up the score so it becomes far less likely they are successful 2) they want you to feel hopeless, and give up. We don't do that here. We do more, worry less. 3) We have a no dumping rule here. Can't just come and dump your worry and anxiety here. It's not productive. We come here to channel our anxiety into concrete action. Many this week made calls for Ukraine. In my "do more, worry less" section you give and volunteer for important projects. Ask questions, engage others, but let's stay focused on strategies, actions - doing - and not worry.
For more how I think about this, read this Hopium post on "not obeying in advance" - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/not-obeying-in-advance?utm_source=publication-search
Thank you kind SIR !
Can’t wait to listen to the Bulwark discussion. Just finished another batch of NC Vote Forward letters and will start on NV postcards this week. Keep working hard everyone!
I am currently writing postcards for a Dem candidate, Nicole Sidman, in an NC state house race in a neighboring district. She is running against the turncoat, Tricia Cotham, who flipped from (D) to (R) mid-term, giving the Repubs a supermajority in both chambers of the statehouse. The GOP "gifted" her with a redrawn, R-leaning district, but the Mecklenburg County Dems are fired up and are definitely gunning for her!!
After we finish those postcards we will be writing Postcards to Swing States (https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/) for NC - one of 11 swing states that they are working in for 2024 cycle. Anyone can get in on this action and order the postcards for free along with names and addresses and messaging - you provide the labor and the stamps. The caveat is that you have to order at least 200 postcards which you will hold to mail in October.
You can sign up now - all their campaigns are live. It could make a break from writing Vote Forward Letters! I'm falling a little behind with my Vote Forward letters between postcards for various campaigns plus letters to voters in NC for VoteRiders. (I found out about the latter from BigTent USA (https://www.bigtentusa.org/take-action-2/)
Thanks BTW, for helping us flip NC blue!