You'll rise to the occasion, Christina, don't worry. And just know that the ability to inspire introverts to go way way out of their comfort zone and knock on doors is the mark of a winning campaign. This is how Obama won. You will probably be using minivan on your phone so all reporting is done online, but you should also be assigned to a physical field office with staff who have been getting a lot of first-time and out-of-town volunteers and are used to helping them through the process.
I consider myself an introvert as well but I really enjoyed canvassing. I even went into a very red zone to try and flip Devin Nunez's seat. People are generally nice, even when we accidentally knocked on R doors.
They also train you before they send you out and will likely pair you with someone who's had experience. I went with a friend who had done it many times before, and it was my first. It really was fun.
Hi Christina, I felt exactly as you before my first canvassing. I almost dropped out but made myself go. It was such a positive experience that I signed up to do it again! It’s a powerful tool to get the vote out and get people to the polls. It can feel awkward initially but you will develop your own style. It feels really good to connect with others and one added benefit for me is that it is an election anxiety reducer. I’ll be going back to PA on Saturday, myself. PA needs boots on the ground from now through election day. Thank you for adding yours! You are going to be fine.
I live in PA, never canvassed before this year and was pretty nervous about it at first. Wherever you meet up, there will be plenty of friendly people happy to help you however they can. They can even pair you with someone at first if you want.
It's cliched, but the trick really is to just be your natural self. Don't worry about the "script". Just remember WHY you and millions of other people feel compelled at this moment to do something. Also try to keep in mind the joy of the Harris campaign and how it will feel when she wins. Thinking about that puts me in a good mood before I knock on a door. At the end of the day, you're just one person reaching out to another person because you care about this country.
If you have a not so great experience, remind yourself that necessary work is usually hard work. Never take anything personally. Some people just don't want to talk and that's fine. It has nothing to do with you.
And after one or two good conversations, you might even start to enjoy it!
Also, if you have a chance, there's a great book called "The Joy of Talking Politics with Strangers" by Elizabeth Chur.
My boyfriend canvassed for the first time in Michigan last weekend. He's really introverted and was nervous but then said the most aggravating part was how few people answer the doors. All his conversations were totally fine at worst. Even people who may not support Kamala were nice. You've got this and it's so awesome you're doing it!
That was my experience my one and only weekend canvassing (in Norristown, Pa.). Only about one of every 10 doors answer. Personally, I did not feel it was a very productive use of my time and have since concentrated on postcard writing. But every method is important; I appreciate that a lot of people canvass and do phone banking and texting,
HI Christina - I am introvert who used to hate canvassing but am now addicted to it (wish I was doing it now because it makes me feel better but gotta work). It’ll be tough at first because its hard to go up to a stranger’s door and you’ll be anticipating that they - like you (an introvert) - will hate that someone is at their door. But, the thing is that - while most people are not home and there others that hide when you knock - you get people every time who are thrilled that you are there and want to talk about the campaign. You also get people who you can tell needed someone to knock on that door. I’ve done a lot of canvassing in rural Adams county (very Trumpy) and many of my doors had not been knocked in decades. You could see the permission structure happening. I’ve had people cry telling me about their voting journey. Yes, I’ve had some mean Trumpers get a little gruff but mostly - even the Trumpers - are pretty nice. Just don’t argue with any one! And, if you are canvassing in Rural PA, take no trespassing signs seriously (turn right around) and get ready for people to say they are voting but are not comfortable telling who they are supporting ((good sign though if they are friendly and take the lit). One trick I got from my almost 90 year old mom is to notice something nice about the house (flowers, etc) and comment on it at the door. It’ll help get you more positive, given you something to talk about and keep things positive. Have fun and stick with it . It might take a shift or two to get comfortable (took me about 5) but you will get there and will be making a big difference for MVP. Oh, and also, if you are going solo ask the office to pair you with someone (or just approach another solo canvasser). Us introverts really benefit from teaming up in this situation.
You might team up with someone. My experience is that very few people answer the door so you end up leaving literature. I teamed up with someone who had never canvassed before. Initially he was hanging back when I knocked on the door, but by the end he was running up to knock first :-). Also, you may use an app for canvassing called MiniVan which has a script to follow if someone does answer the door.
To add to my reply, I enjoy canvassing. You are basically going for a walk, and you get to learn about who lives in that neighborhood, and if you do talk to someone, they are usually pleasant. At one house, the person I was trying to reach was out of the country, and her mother asked me what I was doing, told me she was a Republican, and then told me that I was a 'brave girl' which I enjoyed. I haven't been a girl for a VERY LONG time.
I truly believe that once everything is said and done and Harris is sworn in as president, one of the many stories of this election will be how every pollster and many analyst (except Simon, Tom et. al) completely underestimated the impact women will have in this election. It still baffles me that so many „experts“ spend hours talking about „the bro vote“ and whatnot while completely ignoring about 55% of the electorate. Mark my words, this will probably go down as one of the biggest polling misses in history.
This is the misogynistic patrimony that we must defeat. Trump and his bros believe women are truly inferior. “…whether women want it or not” are the words of the rapist we know he is.
Reading into the subtext, it defines not just his misogyny but his dehumanizing of women. It's as creepy as "they just let me do it." Spoken like the rapist that he is.
They missed GEN Z, the many, many Republicans for Harris, the over 700 National Security and Defense Officials for Harris, Unions for Harris, Swifties. Many of these groups are actively canvassing and phone banking for VP Harris.
So true! I attended the Women’s March in 2017 and feel like Trump has consumed way too much of my life and energy since then. Time for him to go! Turn the page and then throw away the book.
this x 1000. I have been saying this for a couple years now. We have been seeing this in the gun safety movement for sure. And the other key demographic is Gen Z who have HAD IT and want change. I think the female Gen Z vote will shock everyone.
That’s why they cling to their betting site odds like my cat when she doesn’t want to be picked up from the couch she’s scratching. They think it’s football, bruh!
Want to know why DJT stock is cratering today? It's because of this just released from Gallup. Pollsters have been using the wrong LV model. Pollsters across the board are fucked. Trump is fucked. https://x.com/MikeNellis/status/1851970948393562172
I'm hoping that the results of this election will stick a fork in polling in general. Pollsters have messed up so badly, and been so easily corrupted to make polls look the way they want them to look, that most of them simply can't be trusted.
They do love their A+ rated Atlas Intel so much! A Brazilian company that “only” missed the Mexican Pres. election by 20 points and the French Pres. election by 13. They couldn’t even get the regional Brazilian races right last time
Love it that you are banned! An indicia of righteousness!
Direct link to Gallup above. Pollsters use Gallup enthusiasm numbers to mold LV models. Gallup just released poll indicating that Dem enthusiasm is through the roof, at 2008 levels while GOP enthusiasm is below national average. This is monumental. Pollsters are face-palming in shame right now.
There's a lot to chew on here. Enthusiasm looks to be well above 2008 levels, which does indeed make their +R turnout model seem like it was designed to shape turnout rather than reflect it. Our voter-contact advantage also rings true. We've got volunteers passing each other in the street on their way to knock doors and they've got conscripts living in vans and faking their numbers so Elon won't force them to sleep naked outdoors again for missing the target.
I've been poll observing and they always give a shout out to first-time voters. Lots of people fitting the typical profile of a Kamala voter. And in NC, we have same day registration during early voting. So you KNOW for sure these voters are invisible to the pollsters.
Tuesday was officially Vote Early Day (https://voteearlyday.org/) and we really had a lot of Gen Z first time voters that shift that I volunteered.
That guy is weird. If I owned a Tesla, I would sell it.
Also, I saw a clip of Musk conceding that 'economic times will be hard for everyone when he takes office. But that eventually everyone will be making so much money.' If this were a movie, I would walk out.
Fantastic news and aligns well with all the other voter enthusiasm indicators (volunteers, small donor donations, etc.)
My biggest complaint with polling is you need to be very precise and accurate to be meaningful in our polarized, FPTP voting system combined with the electoral college.
This works well in non-competitive states where 2-5% polling miss doesn’t really matter.
But the presidential election is decided by a handful of competitive states. The difference in a few points can swing the election dramatically from Blue to Red.
Polling cannot deliver an accurate prediction on these tighter races, so don’t fret it too much.
It's a meme stock reacting to every new poll and piece of election news. This Gallup poll is a big deal because it is used as the standard for voter participation/turnout and it undermines nearly every single poll released this cycle which is assuming much higher GOP relative turnout.
Yeah, and how many of those Republican voters are actually enthusiastic about voting for Harris? That might not have been captured by Gallup. All depends on how the questions were asked.
For a qualitative measurement of voter enthusiasm, they could have just watched a couple of Harris rallys and paid attention to the crowd. I watched the Eclipse rally and the huge crowd sounded like they were at a Beatles concert! Off the charts excitement, joy and enthusiasm!
(Also, there are going to be people making a truckload of money shorting DJT stock.)
The amount of GOP narrative polling today is simply astounding. I mean... astounding. AtlasIntel, American Greatness, Echelon, Mitchell, American Pulse, Quantus, DailyMail, Cygnal, etc.
GENDER GAP: More than 14.0 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,387,977 more women have voted there than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender turnout gap grew by 101,929 from Tuesday to Wednesday. Gender turnout gap is:
“Male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster. Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA and it’s over.”
. – Mike Cernovich
“Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple. If you want a vision of the future if you don’t vote, imagine Kamala’s voice cackling, forever. Men need to GO VOTE NOW."
Hand on heart that Charlie Kirk soundbite sounds like recycled 2016 except substitute “Hillary” for Kamala. I voted (ballot counted a couple weeks ago, yay ballot trackers) and I hope to hear Kamala’s voice cackling forever. Muah hahahaha. Happy Halloween! 🎃 Let’s frighten the MAGAs!
Dear Charlie Kirk, they hired you to Get Out The Vote. That doesn't mean shouting into your microphone from your basement. You actually have to do something. You know, knock doors and talk to real voters. You are a sad little troll who will laugh all the way to the bank as you cash Lara's RNC check to your "company". Good job, troll, for being as good at your job as Donald was at his.
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans; organizations, historical sites.
3. The Democratic Party has databases that track w3. ho is registered and who has voted, so calling and canvassing should be limited to registered voters yet to vote in most states.
4. In some states. NC, MI, WI, MT, NV registrations remain open and FT 6 is still registering new Democrats. BYOP, free, is texting into MI, NC, NV, WI as I type...https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Today FT 6 TextArcades will be texting 1400 for each $25 contribution. The recipients are not in voter databases so they don't get many political texts. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft6arcade24
CURING: Part of the Democratic groundgame, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, is focused on helping voters "cure" their faulty ballots. For instance this rather-impressive rate of curing in Allegheny:
"Allegheny County ballot curing: County officials told us today they've sent 1,190 ballots back to voters for defects, and 738 (62%) have been fixed and returned so far."
300+ people on the phone bank for ballot chase calls to PA last night. People are fired up and ready to keep working through the 12th if it comes down to curing ballots to push us over the line.
Markers for Democracy likes to have candidates, grass roots organizers, etc. come talk to us on our postcarding zooms. There was one candidate running for a state house race last cycle who won by a couple of dozen votes IIRC. Someone asked if ballot curing had made a difference. The answer was "absolutely"!! Dems had cured ~60 ballots (more than his margin of victory) and GOP voters had cured just 2 or 3.
The early vote trends are showing that polling is going to be WAY off. In fact, I'm feeling more and more confident that we sweep all seven swing states, and that we might know the results before the end of the night on November 5th. Fingers crossed this remains true!
BK, you are new here, and need to slow down please. You cannot make statements like that here without backing them up, providing sources.
In general folks we need to keep to the Hopium way in the close - 1) back up your statements with data and links. 2) keep things upbeat, smart and respectful 3) quiet car sensibility. Folks are working here, don't distract or waste our time with frivolous things or overly aggressively posting. 4) I will suspend folks without warning through the Election for any significant violations of our simple creed here. Thank you all!
I too am new here and listen with caution to what Simon says....We all want the same end result.....Madame President but still a lifetime to go it seems
Yeah, I love his content and so much of what the commenters share is interesting as well. I'm a high energy person and sometimes get a little overly excited about things. I'm going to try and calm it down at bit.
Welcome--I have found your comments interesting and not out of line, so I hope you find that quiet car aura, and aren't discouraged about being part of this community.
Simon, I am more astonished every day at the energy, commitment and wisdom you bring to Hopium. I want to urge those who follow Hopium and have not yet upgraded to a paid subscription to do so right away. Simon has earned it. We should give him our fullest support.
I did not know about the rally cancellations. He’s such an embarrassment and JD Vance is so extremely unlikable their rallies undoubtedly have very low attendance.
For the past two months, I have signed up for 2 tickets to all of the Trump and Vance events, just to suppress the attendance. Most of Vance events are at small wedding venues or small commercial airport hangers. Very sad since Walz can fill arenas!
Someone posted on Twitter a few days ago that Harris should hold an event at Four Seasons. They responded that they didn’t have enough physical space for a Harris rally but that there was more than enough room for a Trump one.
I can kind of understand Virginia if Trump merely wants big crowds, because I know that has to be why he went to blue New York. I can also kind of understand trying to rally the red areas in Virginia. But, New Mexico? The whole state has about a fifth of the population of New York City! Only one swingy congressional district! Does His Nibs have a powerful craving for green chile on his hamberder (I hear they serve green chile at New Mexico Mickey D’s), does he want to sit on a cactus, or maybe only the cacti want to hear him dribble and bloviate now.
New Mexico has a large population of “hispanos” - people of mixed Mexican/ Spanish /Native heritage who have lived there since the 1600’s. The Lujan family is Hispano. Bet you the Puerto Rico Garbage remarks will go over like a lead balloon with this population, who are proud American citizens since way before Trump’s ancestors set foot in the country, like Puerto Ricans.
Well, NY is blue for the presidential election, but lots of red congressional districts were are desparate to turn blue (back again, like CD10. I bet the attendees of teh rally were from LI and NJ.
New York, like CA, is a big blue state with a lot of red downballot. It could be that Trump was trying to drum up (lol autocorrect had it as “dump up”) enthusiasm in Long Island, so no district flips back to blue. However, Tom Suozzi’s victory in his special, indicates to me that it will be harder to hang on to those swingy red districts.
Kathy Hochul was unpopular for whatever reasons, and Lee Zeldin proved to be an unusually strong Republican challenger and “hometown boy” for LI. He’s not around anymore. Kirsten Gillibrand is the top ticket race now and she’s popular, and I don’t even know who her opponent is. For all I know the Musky One paid them “I’ll give you 10K to be a total sacrificial lamb at the top of the ballot! Your mom can print the flyers!”
I wonder to what extent Mexican-Americans and other Latinos in the Western states share the same outrage/ revulsion Puerto Ricans do at the Hinchliffe/Trump racist joke and atmosphere at MSG last Sat?
I’m with Simon on this issue. The Trump campaign doesn’t want him in the swing states as he can only hurt himself. He’s increasingly erratic and low energy.
Me? I say blast his batshit crazy rallies in NM and VA into the swing states. I don’t watch any mainstream media, do not live in a swing state and I saw the garbage truck whatever that was. He can’t hide.
Thanks so much for this detailed reporting and words of encouragement. I will admit I am very anxious. As a 73 year old mental health professional, now retired,I could never grasp why he was elected in 2016 and 8 years later I remain mystified!
Kamala Harris is a far superior choice over Trump! Such a good and decent woman!
On the movement toward Trump in PA: It's not happening. We saw the same thing in 2022 with Dr. Oz. He cut Fetterman's lead down and was slightly ahead on E-day, when he lost by 4 points. Oz should have done better. Fetterman had a rough campaign and the good doctor was one of MAGA's prize celebrity candidates, designed to have the magic formula allegedly possessed by Trump (which means "fart" in the UK): name recognition and populist message. This is herding, pure and simple. Polls converging on the coin toss even when nothing on the ground accounts for that movement.
I hat the same thought. I also checked what moved the WaPo‘s averages in PA and i t was primarily driven by one Fox News poll (duh) and one poll by quinnipiac and they have been waaaaaay off with their polling this whole cycle. And i bet you would see proof that their newest poll is bad as well once you check the cross tabs (which i didn’t do).
Several PA voters have told me and other phone bankers that they returned their ballot weeks ago and it has yet to show up as "returned." So our return rate might be a bit higher.
Yes! I think about that Fetterman race as well! Honestly, the GOP is totally ignoring the Blue Wave that ALMOST got them in the 2022 midterms, but we are working to make sure that Blue Wave has not yet begun to crest!
The 2022 midterms blue wave was real, and should have swamped everything, except all the NY CD's near metro NYC (LI especially) got the big scare about "them" being violent criminals and it swung the vote hot red. Thanks to Lee Zeldin R running for NY Governor, who was behind it all, funded by the Republican national committee. It was very very depressing to witness the tsunami of hate ads. Fear tactics work, sadly.
It’s time to bury forever the whole notion that “Republicans Are Better On The Economy.” It’s false, it’s always been false, and I don’t know why it got such a stubborn foothold in public opinion.
The popular image of the "strong white male billionaire" who is usually a Republican. Because they are job creators, so they must know how to create jobs in politics. It's a myth.
I really wish some of these pacs would use their time, off cycle to start chipping away a this. Use media that gets in front of these people. Chip away. It may take years but peel of a % or two each year....
Clinton and LBJ balanced the budget. Reagan fed the false narrative of "better on economy" and we've all been letting them get away with it. We all know what trickle down really means.
Thank You Simon for your enduring leadership and optimism.
Our 5 Day Mission to Victory!!
I was never in the military, but the past 10 days and the next 5 are probably as close as I'll ever come to understanding the "fog of war".
Right now we don't know if we're winning or losing and everyone is terrified by the prospect of losing.
We don't know enough about the other guys numbers, their strategy or understand their anger even though we've been struggling against them for 8 years.
We can't be sure if our actions for the next five days will get us to victory.
What we do have is HOPE and ENERGY!
We know our Mission: WIN ON NOV 5.
Elections are a numbers game and we have two BIG advantages.
1. Aligned with our Constitution and described in its Bill of Rights, our cause is just and right. Our victory will safeguard our country and benefit the future of ALL Americans. Our loss will bring America into a dark, dark time.
2. Kamala inherited this battle with a 7 million vote advantage and seems to have held +90% of that advantage together. Her miraculous campaign may have added 10-12 million new voters. This should be enough for victory.
But sadly, the impossible to ignore "wrong, biased polls" keep saying this race is still a tie.
So our mission is to Get Out Every Potential Democratic Vote We Can by Nov 5!! Period!!
If we have 500,000 volunteers calling voters, knocking doors and lit dropping across 7 swing states for the next 5 days AND each volunteer adds just 3 forgotten votes to the total, we can increase Kamala's vote total by 1,500,000 votes on Nov 5. That's 20,000-25,000 votes in each state, more than enough to WIN In a race as close as this year's.
There are two aphorisms that fit this situation:
1. Vince Lombardi, great coach of the Green Bay Packers.."Winning isn't everything. Winning is the only thing"
2. I paraphrase Tim Walz.."Work your butts off now..we can all sleep after we win!" or maybe he said when we die..but we get the point.
I suggest you edit your comments to remove the inaccurate statements. The most heinous include the following -- "Right now we don't know if we're winning or losing and everyone is terrified by the prospect of losing." and "We don't know enough about the other guys numbers..." That is maga talk and an insult to Hopium.
It good to know you are the referee for postings on Hopium and what constitutes MAGA talk. I ask you, do you know for a certainty if we are winning or losing? I'm optimistic but not to a certainty. But I'd sure like to know. Are you not terrified by the prospect of losing to Trump? If you're not terrified by that horror movie plot, I'd sure like to know your secret for being calm.
No, I am not terrified. I am full of Hopium. I'm a Ph.D. scientist and hold three elected positions in the Democratic Party. Hopefully Simon will remove your post in the quiet car.
I believe that is the key points of post today which you seemed to interpret as an attack on DMWL. I'd encourage you to reread my post and let me know where I went off the reservation. Tks
Not terrified here either. We have a great candidate, tons of enthusiasm, a huge war chest and an enormous ground game. What do they have? A loser. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. He lost the House in 2018 and 2020. Trump's hand-picked weirdos lost the Senate in 2020 and 2022. There is no "certainty", but I feel very confident and optimistic. I'm not "certain" I'm going to drive my car without getting into an accident, but I don't go around terrified at the prospect of a catastrophic accident. I drive defensively and carry on the best I can with hope and optimism. Living in terror is a choice.
There was a big Republicans for Harris zoom call last night in Arizona, specifically targeting the LDS community. I really can’t believe the polls are picking up the crossover from this very large population here. All my republican friends here voted for Harris. I’m mildly optimistic that AZ will again go blue. Our ballot was extremely long this time and I think that may have caused the lag in democrats turning them in.
Here's what DPNM has to say about The Fraudster's visit today.
"Trump doesn't respect New Mexicans or ABQ-he's a mentally unstable fraudster who thinks he can stiff us on the over $400k he STILL owes [bills left upaid from his last visit]. Trump's coming to ABQ not to win our votes but with a Halloween trick-he wants to use our state as a sounding board on the national stage to espouse his divisive rhetoric on his Blue State hate tour.
But he knows he can't win here-he's already lost NM 2x by huge margins & recent polling & early voter data indicate that he's well on his way to doing so again. With his campaign’s hurtful rhetoric targeting Hispanic communities and Project 2025 agenda that would raise taxes on working families and cut taxes for the wealthy & corporations, Trump should try trick-or-treating somewhere else this Halloween."
Weird he’s going to ABQ. At least somewhere in southern or eastern NM would make sense for the swingy House seat. But this seems to bolster Simon’s take that it’s a BS feint / effort to hide the candidate.
New Mexico has a LOT of people with Spanish language surnames who have been in NM since the 1600s. They are gonna just loooove the garbage remark. I hope they pelt him out with cholla burrs.
Another day on the phones. They've moved me from a list that had some Republicans to one that's all Dems and I have to say, it's nicer. I hate it that Trump is coming to VA, but take heart from Simon's assurance that VA is not in play. I believe that we will win.
My brother and sister-in-law live in VA, both always been active in politics, and they'd break out in stitches over Trump having a chance at Virginia (as if!!) and Northern Virginia is about as blue as you can get. Tons of govt employees live there who I'm sure aren't exactly jumping up and down over Project 2025. Va started purpling out in 2008 when I went out to Loudon County to canvass for Obama (who WON Virginia) and it's continued that way since. The chances of Trump winning Virginia are slim and none (and slim is on vacation permanently).
You'll rise to the occasion, Christina, don't worry. And just know that the ability to inspire introverts to go way way out of their comfort zone and knock on doors is the mark of a winning campaign. This is how Obama won. You will probably be using minivan on your phone so all reporting is done online, but you should also be assigned to a physical field office with staff who have been getting a lot of first-time and out-of-town volunteers and are used to helping them through the process.
I consider myself an introvert as well but I really enjoyed canvassing. I even went into a very red zone to try and flip Devin Nunez's seat. People are generally nice, even when we accidentally knocked on R doors.
They also train you before they send you out and will likely pair you with someone who's had experience. I went with a friend who had done it many times before, and it was my first. It really was fun.
Hi Christina, I felt exactly as you before my first canvassing. I almost dropped out but made myself go. It was such a positive experience that I signed up to do it again! It’s a powerful tool to get the vote out and get people to the polls. It can feel awkward initially but you will develop your own style. It feels really good to connect with others and one added benefit for me is that it is an election anxiety reducer. I’ll be going back to PA on Saturday, myself. PA needs boots on the ground from now through election day. Thank you for adding yours! You are going to be fine.
I live in PA, never canvassed before this year and was pretty nervous about it at first. Wherever you meet up, there will be plenty of friendly people happy to help you however they can. They can even pair you with someone at first if you want.
It's cliched, but the trick really is to just be your natural self. Don't worry about the "script". Just remember WHY you and millions of other people feel compelled at this moment to do something. Also try to keep in mind the joy of the Harris campaign and how it will feel when she wins. Thinking about that puts me in a good mood before I knock on a door. At the end of the day, you're just one person reaching out to another person because you care about this country.
If you have a not so great experience, remind yourself that necessary work is usually hard work. Never take anything personally. Some people just don't want to talk and that's fine. It has nothing to do with you.
And after one or two good conversations, you might even start to enjoy it!
Also, if you have a chance, there's a great book called "The Joy of Talking Politics with Strangers" by Elizabeth Chur.
I started reading this book last week and agree that it is just what is needed for new canvassers and phone-bankers.
My boyfriend canvassed for the first time in Michigan last weekend. He's really introverted and was nervous but then said the most aggravating part was how few people answer the doors. All his conversations were totally fine at worst. Even people who may not support Kamala were nice. You've got this and it's so awesome you're doing it!
That was my experience my one and only weekend canvassing (in Norristown, Pa.). Only about one of every 10 doors answer. Personally, I did not feel it was a very productive use of my time and have since concentrated on postcard writing. But every method is important; I appreciate that a lot of people canvass and do phone banking and texting,
HI Christina - I am introvert who used to hate canvassing but am now addicted to it (wish I was doing it now because it makes me feel better but gotta work). It’ll be tough at first because its hard to go up to a stranger’s door and you’ll be anticipating that they - like you (an introvert) - will hate that someone is at their door. But, the thing is that - while most people are not home and there others that hide when you knock - you get people every time who are thrilled that you are there and want to talk about the campaign. You also get people who you can tell needed someone to knock on that door. I’ve done a lot of canvassing in rural Adams county (very Trumpy) and many of my doors had not been knocked in decades. You could see the permission structure happening. I’ve had people cry telling me about their voting journey. Yes, I’ve had some mean Trumpers get a little gruff but mostly - even the Trumpers - are pretty nice. Just don’t argue with any one! And, if you are canvassing in Rural PA, take no trespassing signs seriously (turn right around) and get ready for people to say they are voting but are not comfortable telling who they are supporting ((good sign though if they are friendly and take the lit). One trick I got from my almost 90 year old mom is to notice something nice about the house (flowers, etc) and comment on it at the door. It’ll help get you more positive, given you something to talk about and keep things positive. Have fun and stick with it . It might take a shift or two to get comfortable (took me about 5) but you will get there and will be making a big difference for MVP. Oh, and also, if you are going solo ask the office to pair you with someone (or just approach another solo canvasser). Us introverts really benefit from teaming up in this situation.
You might team up with someone. My experience is that very few people answer the door so you end up leaving literature. I teamed up with someone who had never canvassed before. Initially he was hanging back when I knocked on the door, but by the end he was running up to knock first :-). Also, you may use an app for canvassing called MiniVan which has a script to follow if someone does answer the door.
To add to my reply, I enjoy canvassing. You are basically going for a walk, and you get to learn about who lives in that neighborhood, and if you do talk to someone, they are usually pleasant. At one house, the person I was trying to reach was out of the country, and her mother asked me what I was doing, told me she was a Republican, and then told me that I was a 'brave girl' which I enjoyed. I haven't been a girl for a VERY LONG time.
One other thing - they tell you this in the training, but DON'T put any literature in the mailbox. That's against the law.
I've done this too - the first time is very hard, but it's just a person on the other side of the door. You've got this!
I truly believe that once everything is said and done and Harris is sworn in as president, one of the many stories of this election will be how every pollster and many analyst (except Simon, Tom et. al) completely underestimated the impact women will have in this election. It still baffles me that so many „experts“ spend hours talking about „the bro vote“ and whatnot while completely ignoring about 55% of the electorate. Mark my words, this will probably go down as one of the biggest polling misses in history.
It's like trump wants to lose with his creepy new stump line where he says "I'm going to do it whether women want it or not" BS.
This is the misogynistic patrimony that we must defeat. Trump and his bros believe women are truly inferior. “…whether women want it or not” are the words of the rapist we know he is.
I meant “patriarchy,” not “patrimony.”
Yeah, that's gonna get him a lot of new voters... SMDH
Donald Dump basically takes a dump every time he opens his mouth.
Reading into the subtext, it defines not just his misogyny but his dehumanizing of women. It's as creepy as "they just let me do it." Spoken like the rapist that he is.
Seen on Mastodon:
I'll give you $5 if you can find me one Swifty who's been contacted by a pollster.
They missed GEN Z, the many, many Republicans for Harris, the over 700 National Security and Defense Officials for Harris, Unions for Harris, Swifties. Many of these groups are actively canvassing and phone banking for VP Harris.
You are so right!! Over 4 million women marched in Jan 2017 -do they think we just disappeared!!
So true! I attended the Women’s March in 2017 and feel like Trump has consumed way too much of my life and energy since then. Time for him to go! Turn the page and then throw away the book.
this x 1000. I have been saying this for a couple years now. We have been seeing this in the gun safety movement for sure. And the other key demographic is Gen Z who have HAD IT and want change. I think the female Gen Z vote will shock everyone.
agree 1,000000000000000000000000 per cent.
That’s why they cling to their betting site odds like my cat when she doesn’t want to be picked up from the couch she’s scratching. They think it’s football, bruh!
Want to know why DJT stock is cratering today? It's because of this just released from Gallup. Pollsters have been using the wrong LV model. Pollsters across the board are fucked. Trump is fucked. https://x.com/MikeNellis/status/1851970948393562172
Here is direct link from Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/652853/half-votes-likely-cast-election-day.aspx
There is truth to this. The heavy R weighting in recent polling is bonkers.
Simon, do you think this is primarily 2016/2020 PTSD from them hearing about "hidden" trump voters over and over again?
To clarify, I'm not defending their thinking. I just wonder if they're overcorrecting in a big way as a reaction.
Yes it is for sure.
I'm hoping that the results of this election will stick a fork in polling in general. Pollsters have messed up so badly, and been so easily corrupted to make polls look the way they want them to look, that most of them simply can't be trusted.
They do love their A+ rated Atlas Intel so much! A Brazilian company that “only” missed the Mexican Pres. election by 20 points and the French Pres. election by 13. They couldn’t even get the regional Brazilian races right last time
I am banned from X. Does it mention that most Gen Z are uncounted?
Love it that you are banned! An indicia of righteousness!
Direct link to Gallup above. Pollsters use Gallup enthusiasm numbers to mold LV models. Gallup just released poll indicating that Dem enthusiasm is through the roof, at 2008 levels while GOP enthusiasm is below national average. This is monumental. Pollsters are face-palming in shame right now.
There's a lot to chew on here. Enthusiasm looks to be well above 2008 levels, which does indeed make their +R turnout model seem like it was designed to shape turnout rather than reflect it. Our voter-contact advantage also rings true. We've got volunteers passing each other in the street on their way to knock doors and they've got conscripts living in vans and faking their numbers so Elon won't force them to sleep naked outdoors again for missing the target.
Banned! We love that for you.
Liars gotta lie; grifters gotta grift.
Democratic canvassers are dedicated and motivated by support for Kamala, concern for our democracy, fear of Trump getting back in the White House.
Who knows what motivates the other side besides hatred?
Congratulations on your Banishment! You must be doing something right (well, correct and righteous). ⭐️
Banned from X — you are obviously a force for good in this world!
Banned! My hero. That dancing dipshit tried to follow me once and I blocked him.
Banned? Nice! Wear that as a badge of honor!
I've been poll observing and they always give a shout out to first-time voters. Lots of people fitting the typical profile of a Kamala voter. And in NC, we have same day registration during early voting. So you KNOW for sure these voters are invisible to the pollsters.
Tuesday was officially Vote Early Day (https://voteearlyday.org/) and we really had a lot of Gen Z first time voters that shift that I volunteered.
Too much campaigning for Kamala? 😇
That guy is weird. If I owned a Tesla, I would sell it.
Also, I saw a clip of Musk conceding that 'economic times will be hard for everyone when he takes office. But that eventually everyone will be making so much money.' If this were a movie, I would walk out.
If the link doesn't work, let me know and I will explain it or try to do something else to link it.
What am I looking at here? I cancelled when Twitter went down the shitter.
See direct Gallup link now added and my response to Daniel S. above.
Fantastic news and aligns well with all the other voter enthusiasm indicators (volunteers, small donor donations, etc.)
My biggest complaint with polling is you need to be very precise and accurate to be meaningful in our polarized, FPTP voting system combined with the electoral college.
This works well in non-competitive states where 2-5% polling miss doesn’t really matter.
But the presidential election is decided by a handful of competitive states. The difference in a few points can swing the election dramatically from Blue to Red.
Polling cannot deliver an accurate prediction on these tighter races, so don’t fret it too much.
I think his stock has been highly manipulated. They’ve had to pause trading on it multiple times in the last week.
It's a meme stock reacting to every new poll and piece of election news. This Gallup poll is a big deal because it is used as the standard for voter participation/turnout and it undermines nearly every single poll released this cycle which is assuming much higher GOP relative turnout.
Absolutely we got the turnout edge!
Yeah, and how many of those Republican voters are actually enthusiastic about voting for Harris? That might not have been captured by Gallup. All depends on how the questions were asked.
What? I’m not on x
For a qualitative measurement of voter enthusiasm, they could have just watched a couple of Harris rallys and paid attention to the crowd. I watched the Eclipse rally and the huge crowd sounded like they were at a Beatles concert! Off the charts excitement, joy and enthusiasm!
(Also, there are going to be people making a truckload of money shorting DJT stock.)
The amount of GOP narrative polling today is simply astounding. I mean... astounding. AtlasIntel, American Greatness, Echelon, Mitchell, American Pulse, Quantus, DailyMail, Cygnal, etc.
It''s an absolute orgy of GOP narrative polling.
I looked at both links and saw nothing about using the wrong LV what ever that is.
GENDER GAP: More than 14.0 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,387,977 more women have voted there than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender turnout gap grew by 101,929 from Tuesday to Wednesday. Gender turnout gap is:
– PA: +13% female
– MI: +12%
– GA: +12%
– NC: +11%
– WI: +8%
Good for Harris!
https://nitter.poast.org/ThirdWayKessler/status/1851799604829843556#m
Check out Target Early … but pls volunteer too!
I had not read that Brookings piece. Thank you for sharing it!
MAGA meltdowns about high female vote:
“Male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster. Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA and it’s over.”
. – Mike Cernovich
“Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple. If you want a vision of the future if you don’t vote, imagine Kamala’s voice cackling, forever. Men need to GO VOTE NOW."
. – Charlie Kirk
Hand on heart that Charlie Kirk soundbite sounds like recycled 2016 except substitute “Hillary” for Kamala. I voted (ballot counted a couple weeks ago, yay ballot trackers) and I hope to hear Kamala’s voice cackling forever. Muah hahahaha. Happy Halloween! 🎃 Let’s frighten the MAGAs!
This is the only time I've been happy to hear what those two dipsh*ts have to say
Dear Charlie Kirk, they hired you to Get Out The Vote. That doesn't mean shouting into your microphone from your basement. You actually have to do something. You know, knock doors and talk to real voters. You are a sad little troll who will laugh all the way to the bank as you cash Lara's RNC check to your "company". Good job, troll, for being as good at your job as Donald was at his.
It’s been like this day after day too. It’s not like there was some surge off pissed-off women during week one and now it is levelling off.
I would be interested to hear from the pros if there are any signs of how the gender gap might play out on election day.
This analysis from the Brookings Institute is being confirmed!
. "How gender gaps could tip the presidential race in 2024"
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-gender-gaps-could-tip-the-presidential-race-in-2024/
Gender Gap in my blue NC county is 13.3% per Tom Bonier's Target Early tool.
YES!!!
READER ENGAGEMENT
1. Uncle Sam needs us! https://www.mobilize.us/
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans; organizations, historical sites.
3. The Democratic Party has databases that track w3. ho is registered and who has voted, so calling and canvassing should be limited to registered voters yet to vote in most states.
4. In some states. NC, MI, WI, MT, NV registrations remain open and FT 6 is still registering new Democrats. BYOP, free, is texting into MI, NC, NV, WI as I type...https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Today FT 6 TextArcades will be texting 1400 for each $25 contribution. The recipients are not in voter databases so they don't get many political texts. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft6arcade24
FT 6 also has mass texting on Saturday. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
It also has a ballot curing website. https://www.fieldteam6.org/ballot-curing
CURING: Part of the Democratic groundgame, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, is focused on helping voters "cure" their faulty ballots. For instance this rather-impressive rate of curing in Allegheny:
"Allegheny County ballot curing: County officials told us today they've sent 1,190 ballots back to voters for defects, and 738 (62%) have been fixed and returned so far."
– Charlie Wolfson
I was working on it last night.
300+ people on the phone bank for ballot chase calls to PA last night. People are fired up and ready to keep working through the 12th if it comes down to curing ballots to push us over the line.
Thank You for your work!
Markers for Democracy likes to have candidates, grass roots organizers, etc. come talk to us on our postcarding zooms. There was one candidate running for a state house race last cycle who won by a couple of dozen votes IIRC. Someone asked if ballot curing had made a difference. The answer was "absolutely"!! Dems had cured ~60 ballots (more than his margin of victory) and GOP voters had cured just 2 or 3.
I worked for AZ last weekend.
So I'm not sure if Simon considers that a top priority as he didn't mention it.
Would time be better spent signing up new people? Have been on the fence.
Multiple opportunities for ballot curing in battleground states:
https://www.bigtentusa.org/
The early vote trends are showing that polling is going to be WAY off. In fact, I'm feeling more and more confident that we sweep all seven swing states, and that we might know the results before the end of the night on November 5th. Fingers crossed this remains true!
BK, you are new here, and need to slow down please. You cannot make statements like that here without backing them up, providing sources.
In general folks we need to keep to the Hopium way in the close - 1) back up your statements with data and links. 2) keep things upbeat, smart and respectful 3) quiet car sensibility. Folks are working here, don't distract or waste our time with frivolous things or overly aggressively posting. 4) I will suspend folks without warning through the Election for any significant violations of our simple creed here. Thank you all!
I'll pump the brakes, sorry. Thanks for the reminder.
I too am new here and listen with caution to what Simon says....We all want the same end result.....Madame President but still a lifetime to go it seems
Yeah, I love his content and so much of what the commenters share is interesting as well. I'm a high energy person and sometimes get a little overly excited about things. I'm going to try and calm it down at bit.
Welcome--I have found your comments interesting and not out of line, so I hope you find that quiet car aura, and aren't discouraged about being part of this community.
Simon, I am more astonished every day at the energy, commitment and wisdom you bring to Hopium. I want to urge those who follow Hopium and have not yet upgraded to a paid subscription to do so right away. Simon has earned it. We should give him our fullest support.
Thanks for explaining Trump cancelling his rally in Pennsylvania. New Mexico and Virginia? Sounds like they know they are going to lose.
I did not know about the rally cancellations. He’s such an embarrassment and JD Vance is so extremely unlikable their rallies undoubtedly have very low attendance.
For the past two months, I have signed up for 2 tickets to all of the Trump and Vance events, just to suppress the attendance. Most of Vance events are at small wedding venues or small commercial airport hangers. Very sad since Walz can fill arenas!
well, sad not sad...
LOL maybe JD can hit up some strip mall with an Ethan Allen or a Scandinavian Designs conveniently nearby for all his Davenport needs.
😂
LOL. Made my day with your humor!
I love a good snark remark. I'm here for it.
Maybe Four Seasons Total Landscaping is available :-)
Someone posted on Twitter a few days ago that Harris should hold an event at Four Seasons. They responded that they didn’t have enough physical space for a Harris rally but that there was more than enough room for a Trump one.
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA-hahahahahahahahaha!
A saw a meme a few days ago that said something to the effect that JD can fill a two-car garage with the best of them.
Only if he is selling a couple used cars out of them....that were driven by a little old lady who only used them to go to church.
I can kind of understand Virginia if Trump merely wants big crowds, because I know that has to be why he went to blue New York. I can also kind of understand trying to rally the red areas in Virginia. But, New Mexico? The whole state has about a fifth of the population of New York City! Only one swingy congressional district! Does His Nibs have a powerful craving for green chile on his hamberder (I hear they serve green chile at New Mexico Mickey D’s), does he want to sit on a cactus, or maybe only the cacti want to hear him dribble and bloviate now.
New Mexico has a large population of “hispanos” - people of mixed Mexican/ Spanish /Native heritage who have lived there since the 1600’s. The Lujan family is Hispano. Bet you the Puerto Rico Garbage remarks will go over like a lead balloon with this population, who are proud American citizens since way before Trump’s ancestors set foot in the country, like Puerto Ricans.
Well, NY is blue for the presidential election, but lots of red congressional districts were are desparate to turn blue (back again, like CD10. I bet the attendees of teh rally were from LI and NJ.
New York, like CA, is a big blue state with a lot of red downballot. It could be that Trump was trying to drum up (lol autocorrect had it as “dump up”) enthusiasm in Long Island, so no district flips back to blue. However, Tom Suozzi’s victory in his special, indicates to me that it will be harder to hang on to those swingy red districts.
Kathy Hochul was unpopular for whatever reasons, and Lee Zeldin proved to be an unusually strong Republican challenger and “hometown boy” for LI. He’s not around anymore. Kirsten Gillibrand is the top ticket race now and she’s popular, and I don’t even know who her opponent is. For all I know the Musky One paid them “I’ll give you 10K to be a total sacrificial lamb at the top of the ballot! Your mom can print the flyers!”
He’s going home….
https://www.newyorker.com/cartoons/daily-cartoon/wednesday-may-10th-roswell-trump
I wonder to what extent Mexican-Americans and other Latinos in the Western states share the same outrage/ revulsion Puerto Ricans do at the Hinchliffe/Trump racist joke and atmosphere at MSG last Sat?
I’m with Simon on this issue. The Trump campaign doesn’t want him in the swing states as he can only hurt himself. He’s increasingly erratic and low energy.
Me? I say blast his batshit crazy rallies in NM and VA into the swing states. I don’t watch any mainstream media, do not live in a swing state and I saw the garbage truck whatever that was. He can’t hide.
Thanks so much for this detailed reporting and words of encouragement. I will admit I am very anxious. As a 73 year old mental health professional, now retired,I could never grasp why he was elected in 2016 and 8 years later I remain mystified!
Kamala Harris is a far superior choice over Trump! Such a good and decent woman!
Reporting from Aurora, Colorado: Rep. Yadira Caraveo (CD08) leading in latest poll: https://www.denverpost.com/2024/10/30/colorado-congress-election-poll-yadira-caraveo-gabe-evans/?share=pges0oviersoslsp22n2
Women leading the way! Also, on the ballot, we have Amendment #79 guaranteeing right to reproductive care and Medicaid funding for it.
This weekend's family activities: final canvassing and visibility with Harris/Walz yardsign distribution. DMWL! We got this!
On the movement toward Trump in PA: It's not happening. We saw the same thing in 2022 with Dr. Oz. He cut Fetterman's lead down and was slightly ahead on E-day, when he lost by 4 points. Oz should have done better. Fetterman had a rough campaign and the good doctor was one of MAGA's prize celebrity candidates, designed to have the magic formula allegedly possessed by Trump (which means "fart" in the UK): name recognition and populist message. This is herding, pure and simple. Polls converging on the coin toss even when nothing on the ground accounts for that movement.
I hat the same thought. I also checked what moved the WaPo‘s averages in PA and i t was primarily driven by one Fox News poll (duh) and one poll by quinnipiac and they have been waaaaaay off with their polling this whole cycle. And i bet you would see proof that their newest poll is bad as well once you check the cross tabs (which i didn’t do).
standing with you on this. in absolute terms.
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY VOTE
📥 1,625,706 votes cast
– 🔵 DEM: 917,896 - 76.6% returned
– 🔴 GOP: 530,086 - 74.4% returned
– 🟡 IND: 177,724 - 63.2% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 56.5% / 🔴 32.6% / 🟡 10.9% 🗳️
Ballot Edge ("Firewall"): 🔵+387,810
📈 Return Edge: 🔵+2.2
https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq/status/1852016319454986592#m
Several PA voters have told me and other phone bankers that they returned their ballot weeks ago and it has yet to show up as "returned." So our return rate might be a bit higher.
Yes mine dropped off 9/19 was recorded 10/2
I really appreciate your posting this. I go on Target Early, but you’re posting exactly what I’m looking for there.
Joshua Smithley tends to report official PA SoS updates before TargetEarly and Michael McDonald’s Election Project do so.
PA has 9 million reg'd voters. Lots of room for vote growth. Great to see from Gallup that the enthusiasm is more on our side.
Yes! I think about that Fetterman race as well! Honestly, the GOP is totally ignoring the Blue Wave that ALMOST got them in the 2022 midterms, but we are working to make sure that Blue Wave has not yet begun to crest!
The 2022 midterms blue wave was real, and should have swamped everything, except all the NY CD's near metro NYC (LI especially) got the big scare about "them" being violent criminals and it swung the vote hot red. Thanks to Lee Zeldin R running for NY Governor, who was behind it all, funded by the Republican national committee. It was very very depressing to witness the tsunami of hate ads. Fear tactics work, sadly.
Tomorrow's job report will most likely make Republicans scream! The ADP estimates of private sector jobs blew past expectations.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-private-payrolls-growth-surges-october-2024-10-30/
It’s time to bury forever the whole notion that “Republicans Are Better On The Economy.” It’s false, it’s always been false, and I don’t know why it got such a stubborn foothold in public opinion.
The popular image of the "strong white male billionaire" who is usually a Republican. Because they are job creators, so they must know how to create jobs in politics. It's a myth.
I really wish some of these pacs would use their time, off cycle to start chipping away a this. Use media that gets in front of these people. Chip away. It may take years but peel of a % or two each year....
That would be a good use of off-season time and money. Move the perception needle even if only a bit.
Clinton and LBJ balanced the budget. Reagan fed the false narrative of "better on economy" and we've all been letting them get away with it. We all know what trickle down really means.
And this a.m. I saw the inflation rate down to about 2.1.
Thank You Simon for your enduring leadership and optimism.
Our 5 Day Mission to Victory!!
I was never in the military, but the past 10 days and the next 5 are probably as close as I'll ever come to understanding the "fog of war".
Right now we don't know if we're winning or losing and everyone is terrified by the prospect of losing.
We don't know enough about the other guys numbers, their strategy or understand their anger even though we've been struggling against them for 8 years.
We can't be sure if our actions for the next five days will get us to victory.
What we do have is HOPE and ENERGY!
We know our Mission: WIN ON NOV 5.
Elections are a numbers game and we have two BIG advantages.
1. Aligned with our Constitution and described in its Bill of Rights, our cause is just and right. Our victory will safeguard our country and benefit the future of ALL Americans. Our loss will bring America into a dark, dark time.
2. Kamala inherited this battle with a 7 million vote advantage and seems to have held +90% of that advantage together. Her miraculous campaign may have added 10-12 million new voters. This should be enough for victory.
But sadly, the impossible to ignore "wrong, biased polls" keep saying this race is still a tie.
So our mission is to Get Out Every Potential Democratic Vote We Can by Nov 5!! Period!!
If we have 500,000 volunteers calling voters, knocking doors and lit dropping across 7 swing states for the next 5 days AND each volunteer adds just 3 forgotten votes to the total, we can increase Kamala's vote total by 1,500,000 votes on Nov 5. That's 20,000-25,000 votes in each state, more than enough to WIN In a race as close as this year's.
There are two aphorisms that fit this situation:
1. Vince Lombardi, great coach of the Green Bay Packers.."Winning isn't everything. Winning is the only thing"
2. I paraphrase Tim Walz.."Work your butts off now..we can all sleep after we win!" or maybe he said when we die..but we get the point.
Go Harris/Walz!!
I suggest you edit your comments to remove the inaccurate statements. The most heinous include the following -- "Right now we don't know if we're winning or losing and everyone is terrified by the prospect of losing." and "We don't know enough about the other guys numbers..." That is maga talk and an insult to Hopium.
Deborah,
It good to know you are the referee for postings on Hopium and what constitutes MAGA talk. I ask you, do you know for a certainty if we are winning or losing? I'm optimistic but not to a certainty. But I'd sure like to know. Are you not terrified by the prospect of losing to Trump? If you're not terrified by that horror movie plot, I'd sure like to know your secret for being calm.
No, I am not terrified. I am full of Hopium. I'm a Ph.D. scientist and hold three elected positions in the Democratic Party. Hopefully Simon will remove your post in the quiet car.
Everyone else here knows the secret. 💙 It's DMWL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 💙
Okay... I'll put my foot in it. What "secret" are we withholding from the public at large? And what does DMWL?
It's in everything that Simon writes ... Do More Worry Less.
I believe that is the key points of post today which you seemed to interpret as an attack on DMWL. I'd encourage you to reread my post and let me know where I went off the reservation. Tks
Not terrified here either. We have a great candidate, tons of enthusiasm, a huge war chest and an enormous ground game. What do they have? A loser. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. He lost the House in 2018 and 2020. Trump's hand-picked weirdos lost the Senate in 2020 and 2022. There is no "certainty", but I feel very confident and optimistic. I'm not "certain" I'm going to drive my car without getting into an accident, but I don't go around terrified at the prospect of a catastrophic accident. I drive defensively and carry on the best I can with hope and optimism. Living in terror is a choice.
We are not afraid of the blubbery baby man. The curtain was pulled back on the fake wiz behind the curtain: he is weak. We are strong.
There was a big Republicans for Harris zoom call last night in Arizona, specifically targeting the LDS community. I really can’t believe the polls are picking up the crossover from this very large population here. All my republican friends here voted for Harris. I’m mildly optimistic that AZ will again go blue. Our ballot was extremely long this time and I think that may have caused the lag in democrats turning them in.
Kicking off six days straight of canvassing in AZ today. The energy is great, we have a shot here.
Thank you, John!
Brilliant! Thank you, John!
Here's what DPNM has to say about The Fraudster's visit today.
"Trump doesn't respect New Mexicans or ABQ-he's a mentally unstable fraudster who thinks he can stiff us on the over $400k he STILL owes [bills left upaid from his last visit]. Trump's coming to ABQ not to win our votes but with a Halloween trick-he wants to use our state as a sounding board on the national stage to espouse his divisive rhetoric on his Blue State hate tour.
But he knows he can't win here-he's already lost NM 2x by huge margins & recent polling & early voter data indicate that he's well on his way to doing so again. With his campaign’s hurtful rhetoric targeting Hispanic communities and Project 2025 agenda that would raise taxes on working families and cut taxes for the wealthy & corporations, Trump should try trick-or-treating somewhere else this Halloween."
Weird he’s going to ABQ. At least somewhere in southern or eastern NM would make sense for the swingy House seat. But this seems to bolster Simon’s take that it’s a BS feint / effort to hide the candidate.
New Mexico has a LOT of people with Spanish language surnames who have been in NM since the 1600s. They are gonna just loooove the garbage remark. I hope they pelt him out with cholla burrs.
I do wonder if he's not going there to launch another one of his ridiculous branded products. Maybe a solid "gold" belt buckle with his name on it.
Another day on the phones. They've moved me from a list that had some Republicans to one that's all Dems and I have to say, it's nicer. I hate it that Trump is coming to VA, but take heart from Simon's assurance that VA is not in play. I believe that we will win.
Trump probably just wants a big state with big crowds so he can tell himself he’s bigly yuge. I have all faith in Virginia.
My brother and sister-in-law live in VA, both always been active in politics, and they'd break out in stitches over Trump having a chance at Virginia (as if!!) and Northern Virginia is about as blue as you can get. Tons of govt employees live there who I'm sure aren't exactly jumping up and down over Project 2025. Va started purpling out in 2008 when I went out to Loudon County to canvass for Obama (who WON Virginia) and it's continued that way since. The chances of Trump winning Virginia are slim and none (and slim is on vacation permanently).