I truly believe that once everything is said and done and Harris is sworn in as president, one of the many stories of this election will be how every pollster and many analyst (except Simon, Tom et. al) completely underestimated the impact women will have in this election. It still baffles me that so many „experts“ spend hours talking about „the bro vote“ and whatnot while completely ignoring about 55% of the electorate. Mark my words, this will probably go down as one of the biggest polling misses in history.
This is the misogynistic patrimony that we must defeat. Trump and his bros believe women are truly inferior. “…whether women want it or not” are the words of the rapist we know he is.
Reading into the subtext, it defines not just his misogyny but his dehumanizing of women. It's as creepy as "they just let me do it." Spoken like the rapist that he is.
They missed GEN Z, the many, many Republicans for Harris, the over 700 National Security and Defense Officials for Harris, Unions for Harris, Swifties. Many of these groups are actively canvassing and phone banking for VP Harris.
So true! I attended the Women’s March in 2017 and feel like Trump has consumed way too much of my life and energy since then. Time for him to go! Turn the page and then throw away the book.
this x 1000. I have been saying this for a couple years now. We have been seeing this in the gun safety movement for sure. And the other key demographic is Gen Z who have HAD IT and want change. I think the female Gen Z vote will shock everyone.
That’s why they cling to their betting site odds like my cat when she doesn’t want to be picked up from the couch she’s scratching. They think it’s football, bruh!
Want to know why DJT stock is cratering today? It's because of this just released from Gallup. Pollsters have been using the wrong LV model. Pollsters across the board are fucked. Trump is fucked. https://x.com/MikeNellis/status/1851970948393562172
I'm hoping that the results of this election will stick a fork in polling in general. Pollsters have messed up so badly, and been so easily corrupted to make polls look the way they want them to look, that most of them simply can't be trusted.
They do love their A+ rated Atlas Intel so much! A Brazilian company that “only” missed the Mexican Pres. election by 20 points and the French Pres. election by 13. They couldn’t even get the regional Brazilian races right last time
Love it that you are banned! An indicia of righteousness!
Direct link to Gallup above. Pollsters use Gallup enthusiasm numbers to mold LV models. Gallup just released poll indicating that Dem enthusiasm is through the roof, at 2008 levels while GOP enthusiasm is below national average. This is monumental. Pollsters are face-palming in shame right now.
There's a lot to chew on here. Enthusiasm looks to be well above 2008 levels, which does indeed make their +R turnout model seem like it was designed to shape turnout rather than reflect it. Our voter-contact advantage also rings true. We've got volunteers passing each other in the street on their way to knock doors and they've got conscripts living in vans and faking their numbers so Elon won't force them to sleep naked outdoors again for missing the target.
I've been poll observing and they always give a shout out to first-time voters. Lots of people fitting the typical profile of a Kamala voter. And in NC, we have same day registration during early voting. So you KNOW for sure these voters are invisible to the pollsters.
Tuesday was officially Vote Early Day (https://voteearlyday.org/) and we really had a lot of Gen Z first time voters that shift that I volunteered.
That guy is weird. If I owned a Tesla, I would sell it.
Also, I saw a clip of Musk conceding that 'economic times will be hard for everyone when he takes office. But that eventually everyone will be making so much money.' If this were a movie, I would walk out.
Fantastic news and aligns well with all the other voter enthusiasm indicators (volunteers, small donor donations, etc.)
My biggest complaint with polling is you need to be very precise and accurate to be meaningful in our polarized, FPTP voting system combined with the electoral college.
This works well in non-competitive states where 2-5% polling miss doesn’t really matter.
But the presidential election is decided by a handful of competitive states. The difference in a few points can swing the election dramatically from Blue to Red.
Polling cannot deliver an accurate prediction on these tighter races, so don’t fret it too much.
It's a meme stock reacting to every new poll and piece of election news. This Gallup poll is a big deal because it is used as the standard for voter participation/turnout and it undermines nearly every single poll released this cycle which is assuming much higher GOP relative turnout.
Yeah, and how many of those Republican voters are actually enthusiastic about voting for Harris? That might not have been captured by Gallup. All depends on how the questions were asked.
For a qualitative measurement of voter enthusiasm, they could have just watched a couple of Harris rallys and paid attention to the crowd. I watched the Eclipse rally and the huge crowd sounded like they were at a Beatles concert! Off the charts excitement, joy and enthusiasm!
(Also, there are going to be people making a truckload of money shorting DJT stock.)
The amount of GOP narrative polling today is simply astounding. I mean... astounding. AtlasIntel, American Greatness, Echelon, Mitchell, American Pulse, Quantus, DailyMail, Cygnal, etc.
GENDER GAP: More than 14.0 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,387,977 more women have voted there than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender turnout gap grew by 101,929 from Tuesday to Wednesday. Gender turnout gap is:
“Male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster. Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA and it’s over.”
. – Mike Cernovich
“Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple. If you want a vision of the future if you don’t vote, imagine Kamala’s voice cackling, forever. Men need to GO VOTE NOW."
Hand on heart that Charlie Kirk soundbite sounds like recycled 2016 except substitute “Hillary” for Kamala. I voted (ballot counted a couple weeks ago, yay ballot trackers) and I hope to hear Kamala’s voice cackling forever. Muah hahahaha. Happy Halloween! 🎃 Let’s frighten the MAGAs!
Dear Charlie Kirk, they hired you to Get Out The Vote. That doesn't mean shouting into your microphone from your basement. You actually have to do something. You know, knock doors and talk to real voters. You are a sad little troll who will laugh all the way to the bank as you cash Lara's RNC check to your "company". Good job, troll, for being as good at your job as Donald was at his.
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans; organizations, historical sites.
3. The Democratic Party has databases that track w3. ho is registered and who has voted, so calling and canvassing should be limited to registered voters yet to vote in most states.
4. In some states. NC, MI, WI, MT, NV registrations remain open and FT 6 is still registering new Democrats. BYOP, free, is texting into MI, NC, NV, WI as I type...https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Today FT 6 TextArcades will be texting 1400 for each $25 contribution. The recipients are not in voter databases so they don't get many political texts. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft6arcade24
CURING: Part of the Democratic groundgame, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, is focused on helping voters "cure" their faulty ballots. For instance this rather-impressive rate of curing in Allegheny:
"Allegheny County ballot curing: County officials told us today they've sent 1,190 ballots back to voters for defects, and 738 (62%) have been fixed and returned so far."
300+ people on the phone bank for ballot chase calls to PA last night. People are fired up and ready to keep working through the 12th if it comes down to curing ballots to push us over the line.
Markers for Democracy likes to have candidates, grass roots organizers, etc. come talk to us on our postcarding zooms. There was one candidate running for a state house race last cycle who won by a couple of dozen votes IIRC. Someone asked if ballot curing had made a difference. The answer was "absolutely"!! Dems had cured ~60 ballots (more than his margin of victory) and GOP voters had cured just 2 or 3.
The early vote trends are showing that polling is going to be WAY off. In fact, I'm feeling more and more confident that we sweep all seven swing states, and that we might know the results before the end of the night on November 5th. Fingers crossed this remains true!
BK, you are new here, and need to slow down please. You cannot make statements like that here without backing them up, providing sources.
In general folks we need to keep to the Hopium way in the close - 1) back up your statements with data and links. 2) keep things upbeat, smart and respectful 3) quiet car sensibility. Folks are working here, don't distract or waste our time with frivolous things or overly aggressively posting. 4) I will suspend folks without warning through the Election for any significant violations of our simple creed here. Thank you all!
I too am new here and listen with caution to what Simon says....We all want the same end result.....Madame President but still a lifetime to go it seems
Yeah, I love his content and so much of what the commenters share is interesting as well. I'm a high energy person and sometimes get a little overly excited about things. I'm going to try and calm it down at bit.
Welcome--I have found your comments interesting and not out of line, so I hope you find that quiet car aura, and aren't discouraged about being part of this community.
Simon, I am more astonished every day at the energy, commitment and wisdom you bring to Hopium. I want to urge those who follow Hopium and have not yet upgraded to a paid subscription to do so right away. Simon has earned it. We should give him our fullest support.
I did not know about the rally cancellations. He’s such an embarrassment and JD Vance is so extremely unlikable their rallies undoubtedly have very low attendance.
For the past two months, I have signed up for 2 tickets to all of the Trump and Vance events, just to suppress the attendance. Most of Vance events are at small wedding venues or small commercial airport hangers. Very sad since Walz can fill arenas!
Someone posted on Twitter a few days ago that Harris should hold an event at Four Seasons. They responded that they didn’t have enough physical space for a Harris rally but that there was more than enough room for a Trump one.
I can kind of understand Virginia if Trump merely wants big crowds, because I know that has to be why he went to blue New York. I can also kind of understand trying to rally the red areas in Virginia. But, New Mexico? The whole state has about a fifth of the population of New York City! Only one swingy congressional district! Does His Nibs have a powerful craving for green chile on his hamberder (I hear they serve green chile at New Mexico Mickey D’s), does he want to sit on a cactus, or maybe only the cacti want to hear him dribble and bloviate now.
New Mexico has a large population of “hispanos” - people of mixed Mexican/ Spanish /Native heritage who have lived there since the 1600’s. The Lujan family is Hispano. Bet you the Puerto Rico Garbage remarks will go over like a lead balloon with this population, who are proud American citizens since way before Trump’s ancestors set foot in the country, like Puerto Ricans.
Well, NY is blue for the presidential election, but lots of red congressional districts were are desparate to turn blue (back again, like CD10. I bet the attendees of teh rally were from LI and NJ.
New York, like CA, is a big blue state with a lot of red downballot. It could be that Trump was trying to drum up (lol autocorrect had it as “dump up”) enthusiasm in Long Island, so no district flips back to blue. However, Tom Suozzi’s victory in his special, indicates to me that it will be harder to hang on to those swingy red districts.
Kathy Hochul was unpopular for whatever reasons, and Lee Zeldin proved to be an unusually strong Republican challenger and “hometown boy” for LI. He’s not around anymore. Kirsten Gillibrand is the top ticket race now and she’s popular, and I don’t even know who her opponent is. For all I know the Musky One paid them “I’ll give you 10K to be a total sacrificial lamb at the top of the ballot! Your mom can print the flyers!”
I wonder to what extent Mexican-Americans and other Latinos in the Western states share the same outrage/ revulsion Puerto Ricans do at the Hinchliffe/Trump racist joke and atmosphere at MSG last Sat?
I’m with Simon on this issue. The Trump campaign doesn’t want him in the swing states as he can only hurt himself. He’s increasingly erratic and low energy.
Me? I say blast his batshit crazy rallies in NM and VA into the swing states. I don’t watch any mainstream media, do not live in a swing state and I saw the garbage truck whatever that was. He can’t hide.
Thanks so much for this detailed reporting and words of encouragement. I will admit I am very anxious. As a 73 year old mental health professional, now retired,I could never grasp why he was elected in 2016 and 8 years later I remain mystified!
Kamala Harris is a far superior choice over Trump! Such a good and decent woman!
On the movement toward Trump in PA: It's not happening. We saw the same thing in 2022 with Dr. Oz. He cut Fetterman's lead down and was slightly ahead on E-day, when he lost by 4 points. Oz should have done better. Fetterman had a rough campaign and the good doctor was one of MAGA's prize celebrity candidates, designed to have the magic formula allegedly possessed by Trump (which means "fart" in the UK): name recognition and populist message. This is herding, pure and simple. Polls converging on the coin toss even when nothing on the ground accounts for that movement.
I hat the same thought. I also checked what moved the WaPo‘s averages in PA and i t was primarily driven by one Fox News poll (duh) and one poll by quinnipiac and they have been waaaaaay off with their polling this whole cycle. And i bet you would see proof that their newest poll is bad as well once you check the cross tabs (which i didn’t do).
Several PA voters have told me and other phone bankers that they returned their ballot weeks ago and it has yet to show up as "returned." So our return rate might be a bit higher.
Yes! I think about that Fetterman race as well! Honestly, the GOP is totally ignoring the Blue Wave that ALMOST got them in the 2022 midterms, but we are working to make sure that Blue Wave has not yet begun to crest!
The 2022 midterms blue wave was real, and should have swamped everything, except all the NY CD's near metro NYC (LI especially) got the big scare about "them" being violent criminals and it swung the vote hot red. Thanks to Lee Zeldin R running for NY Governor, who was behind it all, funded by the Republican national committee. It was very very depressing to witness the tsunami of hate ads. Fear tactics work, sadly.
It’s time to bury forever the whole notion that “Republicans Are Better On The Economy.” It’s false, it’s always been false, and I don’t know why it got such a stubborn foothold in public opinion.
The popular image of the "strong white male billionaire" who is usually a Republican. Because they are job creators, so they must know how to create jobs in politics. It's a myth.
I really wish some of these pacs would use their time, off cycle to start chipping away a this. Use media that gets in front of these people. Chip away. It may take years but peel of a % or two each year....
Clinton and LBJ balanced the budget. Reagan fed the false narrative of "better on economy" and we've all been letting them get away with it. We all know what trickle down really means.
I truly believe that once everything is said and done and Harris is sworn in as president, one of the many stories of this election will be how every pollster and many analyst (except Simon, Tom et. al) completely underestimated the impact women will have in this election. It still baffles me that so many „experts“ spend hours talking about „the bro vote“ and whatnot while completely ignoring about 55% of the electorate. Mark my words, this will probably go down as one of the biggest polling misses in history.
It's like trump wants to lose with his creepy new stump line where he says "I'm going to do it whether women want it or not" BS.
This is the misogynistic patrimony that we must defeat. Trump and his bros believe women are truly inferior. “…whether women want it or not” are the words of the rapist we know he is.
I meant “patriarchy,” not “patrimony.”
Yeah, that's gonna get him a lot of new voters... SMDH
Donald Dump basically takes a dump every time he opens his mouth.
Reading into the subtext, it defines not just his misogyny but his dehumanizing of women. It's as creepy as "they just let me do it." Spoken like the rapist that he is.
Seen on Mastodon:
I'll give you $5 if you can find me one Swifty who's been contacted by a pollster.
They missed GEN Z, the many, many Republicans for Harris, the over 700 National Security and Defense Officials for Harris, Unions for Harris, Swifties. Many of these groups are actively canvassing and phone banking for VP Harris.
You are so right!! Over 4 million women marched in Jan 2017 -do they think we just disappeared!!
So true! I attended the Women’s March in 2017 and feel like Trump has consumed way too much of my life and energy since then. Time for him to go! Turn the page and then throw away the book.
this x 1000. I have been saying this for a couple years now. We have been seeing this in the gun safety movement for sure. And the other key demographic is Gen Z who have HAD IT and want change. I think the female Gen Z vote will shock everyone.
agree 1,000000000000000000000000 per cent.
That’s why they cling to their betting site odds like my cat when she doesn’t want to be picked up from the couch she’s scratching. They think it’s football, bruh!
Want to know why DJT stock is cratering today? It's because of this just released from Gallup. Pollsters have been using the wrong LV model. Pollsters across the board are fucked. Trump is fucked. https://x.com/MikeNellis/status/1851970948393562172
Here is direct link from Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/652853/half-votes-likely-cast-election-day.aspx
There is truth to this. The heavy R weighting in recent polling is bonkers.
Simon, do you think this is primarily 2016/2020 PTSD from them hearing about "hidden" trump voters over and over again?
To clarify, I'm not defending their thinking. I just wonder if they're overcorrecting in a big way as a reaction.
Yes it is for sure.
I'm hoping that the results of this election will stick a fork in polling in general. Pollsters have messed up so badly, and been so easily corrupted to make polls look the way they want them to look, that most of them simply can't be trusted.
They do love their A+ rated Atlas Intel so much! A Brazilian company that “only” missed the Mexican Pres. election by 20 points and the French Pres. election by 13. They couldn’t even get the regional Brazilian races right last time
I am banned from X. Does it mention that most Gen Z are uncounted?
Love it that you are banned! An indicia of righteousness!
Direct link to Gallup above. Pollsters use Gallup enthusiasm numbers to mold LV models. Gallup just released poll indicating that Dem enthusiasm is through the roof, at 2008 levels while GOP enthusiasm is below national average. This is monumental. Pollsters are face-palming in shame right now.
There's a lot to chew on here. Enthusiasm looks to be well above 2008 levels, which does indeed make their +R turnout model seem like it was designed to shape turnout rather than reflect it. Our voter-contact advantage also rings true. We've got volunteers passing each other in the street on their way to knock doors and they've got conscripts living in vans and faking their numbers so Elon won't force them to sleep naked outdoors again for missing the target.
Banned! We love that for you.
Liars gotta lie; grifters gotta grift.
Democratic canvassers are dedicated and motivated by support for Kamala, concern for our democracy, fear of Trump getting back in the White House.
Who knows what motivates the other side besides hatred?
Congratulations on your Banishment! You must be doing something right (well, correct and righteous). ⭐️
Banned from X — you are obviously a force for good in this world!
Banned! My hero. That dancing dipshit tried to follow me once and I blocked him.
Banned? Nice! Wear that as a badge of honor!
I've been poll observing and they always give a shout out to first-time voters. Lots of people fitting the typical profile of a Kamala voter. And in NC, we have same day registration during early voting. So you KNOW for sure these voters are invisible to the pollsters.
Tuesday was officially Vote Early Day (https://voteearlyday.org/) and we really had a lot of Gen Z first time voters that shift that I volunteered.
Too much campaigning for Kamala? 😇
That guy is weird. If I owned a Tesla, I would sell it.
Also, I saw a clip of Musk conceding that 'economic times will be hard for everyone when he takes office. But that eventually everyone will be making so much money.' If this were a movie, I would walk out.
If the link doesn't work, let me know and I will explain it or try to do something else to link it.
What am I looking at here? I cancelled when Twitter went down the shitter.
See direct Gallup link now added and my response to Daniel S. above.
Fantastic news and aligns well with all the other voter enthusiasm indicators (volunteers, small donor donations, etc.)
My biggest complaint with polling is you need to be very precise and accurate to be meaningful in our polarized, FPTP voting system combined with the electoral college.
This works well in non-competitive states where 2-5% polling miss doesn’t really matter.
But the presidential election is decided by a handful of competitive states. The difference in a few points can swing the election dramatically from Blue to Red.
Polling cannot deliver an accurate prediction on these tighter races, so don’t fret it too much.
I think his stock has been highly manipulated. They’ve had to pause trading on it multiple times in the last week.
It's a meme stock reacting to every new poll and piece of election news. This Gallup poll is a big deal because it is used as the standard for voter participation/turnout and it undermines nearly every single poll released this cycle which is assuming much higher GOP relative turnout.
Absolutely we got the turnout edge!
Yeah, and how many of those Republican voters are actually enthusiastic about voting for Harris? That might not have been captured by Gallup. All depends on how the questions were asked.
What? I’m not on x
For a qualitative measurement of voter enthusiasm, they could have just watched a couple of Harris rallys and paid attention to the crowd. I watched the Eclipse rally and the huge crowd sounded like they were at a Beatles concert! Off the charts excitement, joy and enthusiasm!
(Also, there are going to be people making a truckload of money shorting DJT stock.)
The amount of GOP narrative polling today is simply astounding. I mean... astounding. AtlasIntel, American Greatness, Echelon, Mitchell, American Pulse, Quantus, DailyMail, Cygnal, etc.
It''s an absolute orgy of GOP narrative polling.
I looked at both links and saw nothing about using the wrong LV what ever that is.
GENDER GAP: More than 14.0 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,387,977 more women have voted there than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender turnout gap grew by 101,929 from Tuesday to Wednesday. Gender turnout gap is:
– PA: +13% female
– MI: +12%
– GA: +12%
– NC: +11%
– WI: +8%
Good for Harris!
https://nitter.poast.org/ThirdWayKessler/status/1851799604829843556#m
Check out Target Early … but pls volunteer too!
I had not read that Brookings piece. Thank you for sharing it!
MAGA meltdowns about high female vote:
“Male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster. Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA and it’s over.”
. – Mike Cernovich
“Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple. If you want a vision of the future if you don’t vote, imagine Kamala’s voice cackling, forever. Men need to GO VOTE NOW."
. – Charlie Kirk
Hand on heart that Charlie Kirk soundbite sounds like recycled 2016 except substitute “Hillary” for Kamala. I voted (ballot counted a couple weeks ago, yay ballot trackers) and I hope to hear Kamala’s voice cackling forever. Muah hahahaha. Happy Halloween! 🎃 Let’s frighten the MAGAs!
This is the only time I've been happy to hear what those two dipsh*ts have to say
Dear Charlie Kirk, they hired you to Get Out The Vote. That doesn't mean shouting into your microphone from your basement. You actually have to do something. You know, knock doors and talk to real voters. You are a sad little troll who will laugh all the way to the bank as you cash Lara's RNC check to your "company". Good job, troll, for being as good at your job as Donald was at his.
It’s been like this day after day too. It’s not like there was some surge off pissed-off women during week one and now it is levelling off.
I would be interested to hear from the pros if there are any signs of how the gender gap might play out on election day.
This analysis from the Brookings Institute is being confirmed!
. "How gender gaps could tip the presidential race in 2024"
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-gender-gaps-could-tip-the-presidential-race-in-2024/
Gender Gap in my blue NC county is 13.3% per Tom Bonier's Target Early tool.
YES!!!
READER ENGAGEMENT
1. Uncle Sam needs us! https://www.mobilize.us/
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans; organizations, historical sites.
3. The Democratic Party has databases that track w3. ho is registered and who has voted, so calling and canvassing should be limited to registered voters yet to vote in most states.
4. In some states. NC, MI, WI, MT, NV registrations remain open and FT 6 is still registering new Democrats. BYOP, free, is texting into MI, NC, NV, WI as I type...https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Today FT 6 TextArcades will be texting 1400 for each $25 contribution. The recipients are not in voter databases so they don't get many political texts. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft6arcade24
FT 6 also has mass texting on Saturday. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/
It also has a ballot curing website. https://www.fieldteam6.org/ballot-curing
CURING: Part of the Democratic groundgame, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, is focused on helping voters "cure" their faulty ballots. For instance this rather-impressive rate of curing in Allegheny:
"Allegheny County ballot curing: County officials told us today they've sent 1,190 ballots back to voters for defects, and 738 (62%) have been fixed and returned so far."
– Charlie Wolfson
I was working on it last night.
300+ people on the phone bank for ballot chase calls to PA last night. People are fired up and ready to keep working through the 12th if it comes down to curing ballots to push us over the line.
Thank You for your work!
Markers for Democracy likes to have candidates, grass roots organizers, etc. come talk to us on our postcarding zooms. There was one candidate running for a state house race last cycle who won by a couple of dozen votes IIRC. Someone asked if ballot curing had made a difference. The answer was "absolutely"!! Dems had cured ~60 ballots (more than his margin of victory) and GOP voters had cured just 2 or 3.
I worked for AZ last weekend.
So I'm not sure if Simon considers that a top priority as he didn't mention it.
Would time be better spent signing up new people? Have been on the fence.
Multiple opportunities for ballot curing in battleground states:
https://www.bigtentusa.org/
The early vote trends are showing that polling is going to be WAY off. In fact, I'm feeling more and more confident that we sweep all seven swing states, and that we might know the results before the end of the night on November 5th. Fingers crossed this remains true!
BK, you are new here, and need to slow down please. You cannot make statements like that here without backing them up, providing sources.
In general folks we need to keep to the Hopium way in the close - 1) back up your statements with data and links. 2) keep things upbeat, smart and respectful 3) quiet car sensibility. Folks are working here, don't distract or waste our time with frivolous things or overly aggressively posting. 4) I will suspend folks without warning through the Election for any significant violations of our simple creed here. Thank you all!
I'll pump the brakes, sorry. Thanks for the reminder.
I too am new here and listen with caution to what Simon says....We all want the same end result.....Madame President but still a lifetime to go it seems
Yeah, I love his content and so much of what the commenters share is interesting as well. I'm a high energy person and sometimes get a little overly excited about things. I'm going to try and calm it down at bit.
Welcome--I have found your comments interesting and not out of line, so I hope you find that quiet car aura, and aren't discouraged about being part of this community.
Simon, I am more astonished every day at the energy, commitment and wisdom you bring to Hopium. I want to urge those who follow Hopium and have not yet upgraded to a paid subscription to do so right away. Simon has earned it. We should give him our fullest support.
Thanks for explaining Trump cancelling his rally in Pennsylvania. New Mexico and Virginia? Sounds like they know they are going to lose.
I did not know about the rally cancellations. He’s such an embarrassment and JD Vance is so extremely unlikable their rallies undoubtedly have very low attendance.
For the past two months, I have signed up for 2 tickets to all of the Trump and Vance events, just to suppress the attendance. Most of Vance events are at small wedding venues or small commercial airport hangers. Very sad since Walz can fill arenas!
well, sad not sad...
LOL maybe JD can hit up some strip mall with an Ethan Allen or a Scandinavian Designs conveniently nearby for all his Davenport needs.
😂
LOL. Made my day with your humor!
I love a good snark remark. I'm here for it.
Maybe Four Seasons Total Landscaping is available :-)
Someone posted on Twitter a few days ago that Harris should hold an event at Four Seasons. They responded that they didn’t have enough physical space for a Harris rally but that there was more than enough room for a Trump one.
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA-hahahahahahahahaha!
A saw a meme a few days ago that said something to the effect that JD can fill a two-car garage with the best of them.
Only if he is selling a couple used cars out of them....that were driven by a little old lady who only used them to go to church.
I can kind of understand Virginia if Trump merely wants big crowds, because I know that has to be why he went to blue New York. I can also kind of understand trying to rally the red areas in Virginia. But, New Mexico? The whole state has about a fifth of the population of New York City! Only one swingy congressional district! Does His Nibs have a powerful craving for green chile on his hamberder (I hear they serve green chile at New Mexico Mickey D’s), does he want to sit on a cactus, or maybe only the cacti want to hear him dribble and bloviate now.
New Mexico has a large population of “hispanos” - people of mixed Mexican/ Spanish /Native heritage who have lived there since the 1600’s. The Lujan family is Hispano. Bet you the Puerto Rico Garbage remarks will go over like a lead balloon with this population, who are proud American citizens since way before Trump’s ancestors set foot in the country, like Puerto Ricans.
Well, NY is blue for the presidential election, but lots of red congressional districts were are desparate to turn blue (back again, like CD10. I bet the attendees of teh rally were from LI and NJ.
New York, like CA, is a big blue state with a lot of red downballot. It could be that Trump was trying to drum up (lol autocorrect had it as “dump up”) enthusiasm in Long Island, so no district flips back to blue. However, Tom Suozzi’s victory in his special, indicates to me that it will be harder to hang on to those swingy red districts.
Kathy Hochul was unpopular for whatever reasons, and Lee Zeldin proved to be an unusually strong Republican challenger and “hometown boy” for LI. He’s not around anymore. Kirsten Gillibrand is the top ticket race now and she’s popular, and I don’t even know who her opponent is. For all I know the Musky One paid them “I’ll give you 10K to be a total sacrificial lamb at the top of the ballot! Your mom can print the flyers!”
He’s going home….
https://www.newyorker.com/cartoons/daily-cartoon/wednesday-may-10th-roswell-trump
I wonder to what extent Mexican-Americans and other Latinos in the Western states share the same outrage/ revulsion Puerto Ricans do at the Hinchliffe/Trump racist joke and atmosphere at MSG last Sat?
I’m with Simon on this issue. The Trump campaign doesn’t want him in the swing states as he can only hurt himself. He’s increasingly erratic and low energy.
Me? I say blast his batshit crazy rallies in NM and VA into the swing states. I don’t watch any mainstream media, do not live in a swing state and I saw the garbage truck whatever that was. He can’t hide.
Thanks so much for this detailed reporting and words of encouragement. I will admit I am very anxious. As a 73 year old mental health professional, now retired,I could never grasp why he was elected in 2016 and 8 years later I remain mystified!
Kamala Harris is a far superior choice over Trump! Such a good and decent woman!
Reporting from Aurora, Colorado: Rep. Yadira Caraveo (CD08) leading in latest poll: https://www.denverpost.com/2024/10/30/colorado-congress-election-poll-yadira-caraveo-gabe-evans/?share=pges0oviersoslsp22n2
Women leading the way! Also, on the ballot, we have Amendment #79 guaranteeing right to reproductive care and Medicaid funding for it.
This weekend's family activities: final canvassing and visibility with Harris/Walz yardsign distribution. DMWL! We got this!
On the movement toward Trump in PA: It's not happening. We saw the same thing in 2022 with Dr. Oz. He cut Fetterman's lead down and was slightly ahead on E-day, when he lost by 4 points. Oz should have done better. Fetterman had a rough campaign and the good doctor was one of MAGA's prize celebrity candidates, designed to have the magic formula allegedly possessed by Trump (which means "fart" in the UK): name recognition and populist message. This is herding, pure and simple. Polls converging on the coin toss even when nothing on the ground accounts for that movement.
I hat the same thought. I also checked what moved the WaPo‘s averages in PA and i t was primarily driven by one Fox News poll (duh) and one poll by quinnipiac and they have been waaaaaay off with their polling this whole cycle. And i bet you would see proof that their newest poll is bad as well once you check the cross tabs (which i didn’t do).
standing with you on this. in absolute terms.
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY VOTE
📥 1,625,706 votes cast
– 🔵 DEM: 917,896 - 76.6% returned
– 🔴 GOP: 530,086 - 74.4% returned
– 🟡 IND: 177,724 - 63.2% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 56.5% / 🔴 32.6% / 🟡 10.9% 🗳️
Ballot Edge ("Firewall"): 🔵+387,810
📈 Return Edge: 🔵+2.2
https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq/status/1852016319454986592#m
Several PA voters have told me and other phone bankers that they returned their ballot weeks ago and it has yet to show up as "returned." So our return rate might be a bit higher.
Yes mine dropped off 9/19 was recorded 10/2
I really appreciate your posting this. I go on Target Early, but you’re posting exactly what I’m looking for there.
Joshua Smithley tends to report official PA SoS updates before TargetEarly and Michael McDonald’s Election Project do so.
PA has 9 million reg'd voters. Lots of room for vote growth. Great to see from Gallup that the enthusiasm is more on our side.
Yes! I think about that Fetterman race as well! Honestly, the GOP is totally ignoring the Blue Wave that ALMOST got them in the 2022 midterms, but we are working to make sure that Blue Wave has not yet begun to crest!
The 2022 midterms blue wave was real, and should have swamped everything, except all the NY CD's near metro NYC (LI especially) got the big scare about "them" being violent criminals and it swung the vote hot red. Thanks to Lee Zeldin R running for NY Governor, who was behind it all, funded by the Republican national committee. It was very very depressing to witness the tsunami of hate ads. Fear tactics work, sadly.
Tomorrow's job report will most likely make Republicans scream! The ADP estimates of private sector jobs blew past expectations.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-private-payrolls-growth-surges-october-2024-10-30/
It’s time to bury forever the whole notion that “Republicans Are Better On The Economy.” It’s false, it’s always been false, and I don’t know why it got such a stubborn foothold in public opinion.
The popular image of the "strong white male billionaire" who is usually a Republican. Because they are job creators, so they must know how to create jobs in politics. It's a myth.
I really wish some of these pacs would use their time, off cycle to start chipping away a this. Use media that gets in front of these people. Chip away. It may take years but peel of a % or two each year....
That would be a good use of off-season time and money. Move the perception needle even if only a bit.
Clinton and LBJ balanced the budget. Reagan fed the false narrative of "better on economy" and we've all been letting them get away with it. We all know what trickle down really means.
And this a.m. I saw the inflation rate down to about 2.1.