I am going for optimism here and saying that CNN lost a lot of viewers and trump lost votes following the CNN debacle. President Biden's take on the whole event was pitch perfect. And I did send him more money.
I'm not sure yet.....my guess is that it probably got pretty good ratings, but I'm not sure that it matters in the same way it once did. My own reading of the data and results we've had over the past couple of years is that Trump hasn't become seen as less "interesting", but he has clearly become seen as more "dangerous" in the eyes of swing voters and everyone in the Dem coalition, as well as a small but meaningful fraction of the Republican coalition. I understand people's worry about normalizing him and giving him a platform, and I think we should all continue to do everything we can to curtail that.....but I don't think you have the same outcome from it now that you did in 2015 and 2016.....Trump is no longer a "theory"....he's a tested reality, and we must NOT forget that as bad as he was from the day he announced his candidacy through election day 2020, the absolute worst of his behavior came AFTER people cast their votes. I have a strong feeling that had the public been able to vote again AFTER his 6 week sore loser tour and then Jan 6, it would have easily cost him 3 - 5 million popular votes. What happened last night was unacceptable for sure....but even if it was a ratings hit, I don't think it has the same implications that it did before....I think it fuels a fear of MAGA to an even stronger degree than it fuels his potential success
What a breath of fresh air. Thank you for this worthy column Simon.
I am hoping all who see tfg's CNN appearance as a win in the short term, find out in the long term that tfg was the best gift the dems and independents could have ever wished for.
Simon, as part of your economic argument for Dems, could you add a piece about the economic cost of gun violence? (I don't recall whether you currently do or not.) Gun violence costs us $557 billion annually per Everytown for Gun Safety research. Extreme GOP stance on guns not only costs lives but also money. https://everytownresearch.org/report/the-economic-cost-of-gun-violence/
Also, I totally agree that having an anti-corruption agenda is essential. It is a topic that unites almost all voters and could help to diffuse the attempts by the MAGA extremists to paint Biden as corrupt. Another stark contrast with Trump and Trumpists Republicans.
If we're going to get serious about reform, we're going to have to start with eliminating the lobbying industry. I've seen people at all levels of government start out with great ideas and lots of public support only to run into walls of money that turn out to be much harder than those of brick and mortar.
There hasn’t been much attention to the Post/ABC poll surveying “adults” without a voter registration screen (registered/likely). I have a very opinionated relative who never has voted. He could have been included in this Post sample, if I read the demographics correctly. How insane is that? How should one evaluate any political poll that doesn't use a registered/likely voter screen?
Anti-corruption. Wasn't that one of Trump's big campaign issues ("drain the swamp")? Have to make sure we don't inadvertently make the GOP's argument for them.
Thanks for the shout out on Reinventing government's slogan, Government that "works better and costs less." But IMHO it's not an issue for 2024. Public believes government is corrupt and politics is the cause. We don't have enough money to change their mind and the Biden administration's focus on Inspector Generals is not going to solve the problem.
I have been pondering a concept for a few months that I think could actually be of benefit to the Biden campaign and the Dem Party in general next year. I think polls are missing something pretty important......it's undeniable that Biden doesn't have the charisma of Obama that connects on a super emotional level with the same numbers of people....and I say that as someone who actually does have that kind of emotional affection for Joe, but it's clear that it isn't translating to as many other other people as some would hope. However, there has been an interesting advantage in that reality that is under-played and underappreciated.....Joe rarely has really high expectations to meet, and then he repeatedly exceeds whatever expectations there are without earning so much love for it that he has much higher expectations to meet on the next battle. This has, in my view, caused the voting public to focus like a laser on the dangers of MAGA, and regardless of their luke warm feelings about Joe (based on a lot of different factors, and quite often not his performance), they always see him as the reasonable, safe, and responsible alternative. I think this is pretty key because as much as expectations of Joe continue to be pretty low by people, the MAGA base now has HUGE expectations of Trump and the Rs.....they want bold and ugly political retribution, scapegoats to target, the most fiery and bombastic rhetoric that can be mustered, and an absolute war footing on all issues....which means that MAGA continues to repeatedly make the contrast and choice abundantly clear, and it's becoming more accepted as self evident in the public zeitgeist that they are dangerously extreme and out of step with the American values of freedom, fairness, and opportunity, as well as painfully antithetical to the trajectory of the evolution of our populace. So.....I think in addition to leaning in hard on those value words like "Freedom", "Fairness", and "Opportunity"......I would be leaning in very hard to a simple concept: "Steady & Responsible Leadership in Dangerous Times"........I would start with the frame that everyone already knows that we're in dangerous times for Democracy & Personal Liberty, and that everyone knows exactly why....the extremist radical MAGA Republicans.......and then say over and over again like a fucking broken record, "The American People will get through these dangerous times because of their strength, character, and spirit as long as they continue to choose Responsible, Steady Leadership".....someone better at condensing messaging than me could refine it, but those are the underlying values and the framing that I believe the entire Dem Party needs to wage the 2024 campaign around, and if we're successful with that along with our superior GOTV and what I hope will be a very successful Voter Registration effort around the country this year, I believe we will win the battle of persuasion quite handily as well and hit 55%. I'll take 50% +1 if it's all that's doable when the time comes, but I agree fully that we need to plan and organize with the intention of delivering a total ass kicking.
I strongly agree that the Dems need a reform/anti-corruption agenda. I think it would have very broad appeal. That was a key part of Elizabeth Warren’s 2020 campaign.
I agree with Barbara M CNN fell off a cliff and took Collins with them. The only thing that was positive is that he went through his bag of lies and checked off everything that go against the grain of the majority of people. The audience was a set-up as a backdrop for his lies, as usual. AND, I was motivated to donate to Biden/Harris again as well.
This morning, University of Michigan consumer confidence index falls to 57.7 from 63.5 in April. Believe that this administration needs to start telling the truth about how much consumers are hurting. Seriously. Even though CPI numbers which came out two days ago show inflation slowing, we must remember that this does NOT include food and fuel, the two items that most affect consumers. No matter what rosy picture the administration paints, my belief is that this needs to be addressed. And yes, I believe the Rs are trying to force the economy into recession so they have that to run on in 2024.
I am going for optimism here and saying that CNN lost a lot of viewers and trump lost votes following the CNN debacle. President Biden's take on the whole event was pitch perfect. And I did send him more money.
Ratings will apparently be out tomorrow and we'll see. I hope you're right.
I'm not sure yet.....my guess is that it probably got pretty good ratings, but I'm not sure that it matters in the same way it once did. My own reading of the data and results we've had over the past couple of years is that Trump hasn't become seen as less "interesting", but he has clearly become seen as more "dangerous" in the eyes of swing voters and everyone in the Dem coalition, as well as a small but meaningful fraction of the Republican coalition. I understand people's worry about normalizing him and giving him a platform, and I think we should all continue to do everything we can to curtail that.....but I don't think you have the same outcome from it now that you did in 2015 and 2016.....Trump is no longer a "theory"....he's a tested reality, and we must NOT forget that as bad as he was from the day he announced his candidacy through election day 2020, the absolute worst of his behavior came AFTER people cast their votes. I have a strong feeling that had the public been able to vote again AFTER his 6 week sore loser tour and then Jan 6, it would have easily cost him 3 - 5 million popular votes. What happened last night was unacceptable for sure....but even if it was a ratings hit, I don't think it has the same implications that it did before....I think it fuels a fear of MAGA to an even stronger degree than it fuels his potential success
What a breath of fresh air. Thank you for this worthy column Simon.
I am hoping all who see tfg's CNN appearance as a win in the short term, find out in the long term that tfg was the best gift the dems and independents could have ever wished for.
Like Barbara, I too am optimistic.
Simon, as part of your economic argument for Dems, could you add a piece about the economic cost of gun violence? (I don't recall whether you currently do or not.) Gun violence costs us $557 billion annually per Everytown for Gun Safety research. Extreme GOP stance on guns not only costs lives but also money. https://everytownresearch.org/report/the-economic-cost-of-gun-violence/
And as a corollary to this, lost tourism dollars - other countries are issuing travel advisories due to the gun violence in the U.S. https://www.newsweek.com/us-travel-warnings-gun-violence-1799191
Also, I totally agree that having an anti-corruption agenda is essential. It is a topic that unites almost all voters and could help to diffuse the attempts by the MAGA extremists to paint Biden as corrupt. Another stark contrast with Trump and Trumpists Republicans.
If we're going to get serious about reform, we're going to have to start with eliminating the lobbying industry. I've seen people at all levels of government start out with great ideas and lots of public support only to run into walls of money that turn out to be much harder than those of brick and mortar.
There hasn’t been much attention to the Post/ABC poll surveying “adults” without a voter registration screen (registered/likely). I have a very opinionated relative who never has voted. He could have been included in this Post sample, if I read the demographics correctly. How insane is that? How should one evaluate any political poll that doesn't use a registered/likely voter screen?
Anti-corruption. Wasn't that one of Trump's big campaign issues ("drain the swamp")? Have to make sure we don't inadvertently make the GOP's argument for them.
Thanks for the shout out on Reinventing government's slogan, Government that "works better and costs less." But IMHO it's not an issue for 2024. Public believes government is corrupt and politics is the cause. We don't have enough money to change their mind and the Biden administration's focus on Inspector Generals is not going to solve the problem.
https://youtu.be/HvUdZtyg5Sg
At 4:45 Ben Meisales give a quote of Simon’s tweet last night after CNN’s despicable display.
An open door....
Here’s one to use in poll discussion “Polls in May 2024 will be of dubious value… Polls in May 2023 are worth as much as Theranos stock.”
— Former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe
I have been pondering a concept for a few months that I think could actually be of benefit to the Biden campaign and the Dem Party in general next year. I think polls are missing something pretty important......it's undeniable that Biden doesn't have the charisma of Obama that connects on a super emotional level with the same numbers of people....and I say that as someone who actually does have that kind of emotional affection for Joe, but it's clear that it isn't translating to as many other other people as some would hope. However, there has been an interesting advantage in that reality that is under-played and underappreciated.....Joe rarely has really high expectations to meet, and then he repeatedly exceeds whatever expectations there are without earning so much love for it that he has much higher expectations to meet on the next battle. This has, in my view, caused the voting public to focus like a laser on the dangers of MAGA, and regardless of their luke warm feelings about Joe (based on a lot of different factors, and quite often not his performance), they always see him as the reasonable, safe, and responsible alternative. I think this is pretty key because as much as expectations of Joe continue to be pretty low by people, the MAGA base now has HUGE expectations of Trump and the Rs.....they want bold and ugly political retribution, scapegoats to target, the most fiery and bombastic rhetoric that can be mustered, and an absolute war footing on all issues....which means that MAGA continues to repeatedly make the contrast and choice abundantly clear, and it's becoming more accepted as self evident in the public zeitgeist that they are dangerously extreme and out of step with the American values of freedom, fairness, and opportunity, as well as painfully antithetical to the trajectory of the evolution of our populace. So.....I think in addition to leaning in hard on those value words like "Freedom", "Fairness", and "Opportunity"......I would be leaning in very hard to a simple concept: "Steady & Responsible Leadership in Dangerous Times"........I would start with the frame that everyone already knows that we're in dangerous times for Democracy & Personal Liberty, and that everyone knows exactly why....the extremist radical MAGA Republicans.......and then say over and over again like a fucking broken record, "The American People will get through these dangerous times because of their strength, character, and spirit as long as they continue to choose Responsible, Steady Leadership".....someone better at condensing messaging than me could refine it, but those are the underlying values and the framing that I believe the entire Dem Party needs to wage the 2024 campaign around, and if we're successful with that along with our superior GOTV and what I hope will be a very successful Voter Registration effort around the country this year, I believe we will win the battle of persuasion quite handily as well and hit 55%. I'll take 50% +1 if it's all that's doable when the time comes, but I agree fully that we need to plan and organize with the intention of delivering a total ass kicking.
I strongly agree that the Dems need a reform/anti-corruption agenda. I think it would have very broad appeal. That was a key part of Elizabeth Warren’s 2020 campaign.
I agree with Barbara M CNN fell off a cliff and took Collins with them. The only thing that was positive is that he went through his bag of lies and checked off everything that go against the grain of the majority of people. The audience was a set-up as a backdrop for his lies, as usual. AND, I was motivated to donate to Biden/Harris again as well.
“It’s simple,folks.
Do you want four more years of that?”
Simon, I was on a Zoom where you discussed your experience with the spoken vs. written word. Now I get it…and Biden gets it!
Always enjoy reading you Simon.
This morning, University of Michigan consumer confidence index falls to 57.7 from 63.5 in April. Believe that this administration needs to start telling the truth about how much consumers are hurting. Seriously. Even though CPI numbers which came out two days ago show inflation slowing, we must remember that this does NOT include food and fuel, the two items that most affect consumers. No matter what rosy picture the administration paints, my belief is that this needs to be addressed. And yes, I believe the Rs are trying to force the economy into recession so they have that to run on in 2024.
Dina
MAGA is making war on women and children.