You could call their offices individually and voice your concerns. I don't know how much good that would do if you're not in their districts, but it can't hurt! Might even feel good. Just google which reps and senators are publicly calling him out. As for the media, you can call or email all the outlets, and if you're a subscriber, unsubscribe and tell them why. Just my thoughts.
I did just cancel my subscription to the New York Times and the Washington Post is next. To see two formerly stalwart defenders of truth and democracy fall into right wing nuttery is sad beyond belief.
I sent Biden an respectful email https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/share/ and I also contacted my senator Sherrod Brown. I tried to contact the few democrats from Ohio in Congress (mine is horrible bc of gerrymandering) but their websites say they can only take comments from constituents. Perhaps I'll call.
Brad I am a little surprised by this take. Simon showed some pretty clear data that a supermajority of the country wants President Biden to step aside from the nomination. A majority of Democrats feel this way. And data is starting to show that the VP is very possibly a stronger candidate. I think it would be a terrible sign if no Democratic officials were voicing concern. That would probably be a sign of a broken system
I am open to the idea that President Biden is the strongest, but he has to put the concerns to rest by empathetically addressing it. So far the President has only bristled at this concern and that is understandable. But I think there is a lot of room and appetite by the public to see him earnestly say he hears the concern, why he thinks it is overblown, and being open about what he would see as a concern on his part.
It would be powerful for him to say something like "Part of this concern is on me. I wanted to take politics out of peoples lives after the prior admin, and because of that most of my success and good days go unnoticed. The public is not wrong to be concerned but my strength is in levers of government, not stuffy staged events." Then maybe explain why the 25th amendment is around and how he expects his staff to use it if he were to fall off.
Sometimes I think people like us forget that a lot of the general public doesn't really understand what the branches do, or how the political mechanics work. He hasn't really tried to educate us in these interviews on this yet.
It is not the President's job to assuage peoples concerns? Honestly, I cannot think of a more important job of a leader. And I am not the problem Brad, I am going to vote, I am going to continue to volunteer, I am going to continue to donate.
I am concerned about the people who are not paying close attention who find this stuff incredibly boring, and tedious. People who honestly do not know what would happen if he died or had a stroke. It is the job of a Presidential Candidate to bring those people in and tell them what they need to hear.
Hey man you should probably take a walk or something. You are too hot on this. I would say volunteer for a canvasing shift but I am not sure I want you talking like this to voters.
One of the most popular congress people is Jeff Jackson out of NC, and if you watch his videos all he does is try to explain political mechanics to people. I wish the Biden Team had someone, either VP Harris or President Biden doing the equivalent for the last three years. We would be in much better shape.
Feel free to leave Brad. Tired of these threats from people. I am doing my best here every day in a challenging time and if you don't like it please leave.
I am leaving this exchange up for now, but a few notes:
- everything about this exchange violates the basic principals we've tried to establish here at Hopium about respectful, data-driven dialogue, and ignores my repeated entreaties for people to not turn on one another during this challenging time. By doing so you are doing MAGA and Putin's work for them.
- You are not the arbiter of who is loyal to Biden. I went on national television twice yesterday and said I am 100% behind Biden and will fight for him every day for the remainder of the election as hard as I've been fighting for him for the past 4 years. Twice I said this, to millions of people. My wife is a senior advisor to him and has been since the first day of the Administration. That you are turning this into a loyalty test is ridiculous, insulting, juvenile and counter-productive. This is the kind of mindset that tears parties apart - but I guess that is what you want.
- What I am doing here, and have been all week, as a political strategist, is offering my advice on how we can improve his position and win the election. I've been doing that on many issues over the past 18 months and will do so until Election Day.
Hi Chris, can you please let me know where you saw the Biden-Harris phone bank link that needs fixing?
There are two calling programs, the Call-Crew Anytime program, where you make calls on your schedule with real-time support in Slack. There are also scheduled Zoom phone banks where you call with a group on Zoom after a brief training.
I wonder if he means the Biden-Harris "volunteer" button in Simon's post. That link is not very helpful, IMO. It takes me to a page with a list of four "training" type programs, none of which are the type of volunteer opportunities people are looking for (phone banking, texting or post card/letter writing).
YES! I so needed to hear this today. All this Biden-bashing has lit a fire. We're ready for the fight, we're in it to win it! Straight on till morning, people--LOUD and PROUD!
Even at this late hour, is possible for President Biden to withdraw from the race, but some have suggested that he resign the presidency so that Kamala Harris can run as the incumbent. Historically, incumbency is a significant advantage.
Unfortunately, there is a fatal flaw in this plan.
The House of Representatives must, according to the Constitution, confirm the new VP that Harris chooses. That’s right, the Republican-controlled House. Anyone who believes that Speaker Mike Johnson wouldn’t do Trump’s bidding and throw a wrench into the works, is seriously deluded.
And should the House *fail* to approve a new VP, the Constitutional question is: Who will approve the Electoral Votes of the 2024 election? And if no one approves Electoral Votes, who gets to decide who will be the 48th President of the United States?
Surprise, surprise! The House of Representatives, of course – with each state delegation casting a single vote. Even if Democrats succeed with a Blue Wave election in November, the GOP will almost certainly control a majority of those state delegations.
The conclusion is clear: If President Joe Biden were to resign, then the next president will not be Kamala Harris, but Donald J. Trump.
When FDR ran for a fourth term, people knew he was ill, and they voted for him anyway. Here is something I found interesting online "Concerned that Roosevelt's ill health would mean the vice president would likely become president, the convention dropped Roosevelt's vice president Henry A. Wallace in favor of Senator Harry S. Truman of Missouri." Not that I am in favor of dropping our VP.
Just think, back then we were fighting authoritarians, now it is virtually a tie featuring an excellent president and an authoritarian. What does that say about the voting public? As a former college history instructor, sometimes I feel quite depressed.
That's not how it works. If Biden resigns and Kamala takes over, she would pick a replacement vice-president. Who would have to be confirmed by both the House and the Senate. If one body doesn't approve Harris' choice then we don't have a vice-president. In the case of Biden and Kamala we would be without a vice-president for a very short time. Not worried about that here.
I may well stand corrected on the details; I am not a constitutional expert. But the VP has a key role to play in the confirmation of the Electoral College Vote. If there is no-one in that role, I am told that’s a problem.
Thank you for clarifying! And that, too, will be decided by the election, no? Or do you mean Senator Patty Murray (Dem.), the President Pro Tempore of the old (i.e. current) Senate?
One thing you forgot to mention. In the event of a electoral college tie the House would elect the next president but the Senate has to the next vice-president, where it’s 1 person/1 vote. And if it turns out that the Democrats have the majority of the state delegations (26), but the Republicans have a majority in the Senate, you have a scenario where Biden becomes the president but Trump’s VP choice—not Kamala Harris—becomes the vice-president. And if by Jan. 20 the House remains deadlocked in electing a president, then the newly vice-president becomes president.
Interesting perspective. Thanks. We still think both options (Biden staying in, or him resigning as we described in other comments) are viable. But is the Biden resigning option desirable? That is a different question we are not qualified to answer. At any rate, Simon has shown us that our real odds of winning (see 538) have not significantly changed with Biden since the debate. That is something we should all keep in mind.
Anyways, to answer your concerns, everything right now is a matter of crossing over uncharted waters. However, to your specific points, if Biden resigned, we suggest that a President Kamala Harris nominate North Carolina Roy Cooper as VP. MAGA Mike could resist appointing him, but remember that North Carolina could be a battleground state. That move has clear political risks for both Trump and Johnson (see our reasons for that in other comments).
Thank you Simon fo keeping us focused: our role in this election is consistent with your message via Twitter. We can win this thing, DEMs stop worrying and infighting, start doing. Repeat the good story of the Biden-Harris admin and repeat the disater that is Trump
("But the entire far-right apparatus is continuing to position itself for what looks like an increasingly likely win in the fall, and maybe a big one.)
My whole body froze. Then I move onto your article and I can breathe again. Goodbye TPM.
No matter who the Democrat candidate is, they will be running against a bonafide lunatic! That is the news!!
Gawd. This is hard. Thank you for pulling us from the brink on a daily basis.
I'm with you, Deb! One note: when used as an adjective, it's "Democratic" candidate. "Democrat" used as a modifier is considered pejorative--it's the MAGAT way of belittling us. I think we all hear it so often we just fall into the trap! Here's a comprehensive history of the term from Slate: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/01/democrat-party-republican-insult.html
Two things I feel we all should be aware of when reading reports about the confidence of the far right about its chances of gaining big wins:
(1) This kind of talk has been core GOP strategy for as long as I can remember: having made registration and voting more difficult than anywhere else in the world, and understanding Americans' obsession with being on the winning side (eg look at the relative sizes of the fan bases of our winning and losing sports teams), the GOP's approach is *always* to make its own supporters so confident of victory that they'll walk on broken glass to get to the polls, while scaring, intimidating, and demoralizing Dems (for whose core constituencies they've made registering and voting esp difficult) so that we don't volunteer and don't show up. They got caught with their hands in the cookie jar on this in 2022 when Simon exposed their efforts to game the polling averages with hundreds of phony polls showing a red wave that never came. But that won't stop them from continuing to deploy it because they've used it to successfully elect a lot more people than they should have been able to in a democracy where they are in the clear minority, and have been for years.
(2) Since 2016, the media has happily amplified this particular "resistance is futile" narrative because Trump is good for business (granted, I don't normally consider the Guardian to be party to this, but they could well be reporting on the basis of those who are), and now that their industry is in existential crisis, it's not surprising that they are doubling and doubling down.
Thanks for posting this. Yes, I live here and this smelled rotten from the start. And now with all of the attention to Trump’s militia plans it all makes sense. While I’m glad the NYT is reporting this, perhaps they should consider whether they want to support the guy who wants to use government force against his critics or the guy who’s saving democracy.
Well. Let's take a breath for a moment. There have been militia all along. We saw some of those militia on January 6. I am 100% certain the DOJ, FBI, and our national security apparatus know about these groups.
The larger issue is why is the New York times bringing this up now?
great point - why are they? I agree that the DOJ, etc is aware of this and has plans. I think it is time that the public fully understands who is behind this.
My larger point is that is quite possible these groups have been around for awhile. I surely don't trust the Times.
Whenever I hear stirrings about militias I think of the significant number of January 6 insurrectionists in jail including the leader of the proud boys. Since January 6 despite trump's urgings of people to defend him this simply hasn't happened.
Pretty obvious, isn't it? And it's definitely not because they're worried we'll be complacent otherwise. Maybe it's just "if it bleeds, it leads," but personally I'm catching the stench of voter intimidation in the air.
Agreed, but we have to be careful about how we deploy it. Eg we trumpet our 2020 turnout, but it ranked 135th in the world (our midterm turnout ranked 165th), and we'll never know, after the deluge of stories in Sept-Oct 2020 predicting violence at the polls, how many failed to show up b/c they 'didn't want any trouble." We're all here because we want to make "good trouble," but a lot of folks don't want any part of that, and I feel it's important to know who will be fired up (and target them) while leaving others in relative blissful ignorance, rather than worried that Trump will break into the ballot boxes, ID everyone who voted for Biden and put us all in camps--these fascists already use their cell phones to intimidate people going to the polls by taking their pictures (and smiling). Now if I could share such stories paired with others about ex-front-line military left-wing militias organizing to protect polling places, I might feel differently. Maybe it's just my testosterone talking, but I feel it's about time we start putting the other side on its back foot where its threats of violence are concerned. ;)
“Given that fact-checking revealed that Trump told over 35 lies during the debate, and that he refused to promise to accept November’s election results, do you think he should withdraw as a presidential candidate?"
Agreed. Thanks to Simon for the pep talk because I have felt much anger lately. Most of the anger is directed at those who have decided the rest of us must be replace Biden. He has been a remarkably successful president and he's being treated very disrespectfully. George Clooney doesn't speak for me.
My biggest issue with George Clooney is that he chose to go public and in the NYT of all papers. Why try to humiliate President Biden this way? It sort of seemed personal - to me at least. Not saying he doesn't believe what he wrote. BUT why go public with it? And why the NYT. He had to know it would go viral. Why not The Guardian for example? Having said this, I still the he should have done this privately.
Wow! That article should be front and center, and widely circulated.
Thank you so much for sharing! I sent an email pointing it out to two journalists who just published a front-page article on Norway’s premier news site, NRK.no.
Wow, this is amazing! I would love to see it reach as many people as possible. If I knew how to share this on Instagram, I would. I originally signed up to follow other accounts and am not active as a poster there, but have recently been sharing more political things, hoping that my small group of followers might pass it on.
Dang! What a great piece--thanks much for sharing (I'll be sharing too--in a newsletter I write for a politically well-connected client). Some will say TL;DR to which I (always) reply: TL?R?YL (your loss). And amazingly it still leaves out some great details, eg yes, Trump insisted on one-pagers, yes, he insisted on lots of pictures, but there's no mention of the fact, according to briefers, that he could/would only concentrate on written sentences in the brief that had *his name in the sentence,* in *all caps*!
I appreciate your feedback (and ArcticStones’ and Antoinette’s). I know it was really long. Tonite Simon said many important and clarifying (for me) things. One was to keep going after our opponent, the illiterate, lying, raping, coup-plotting, felon. I felt some relief that somebody was reminding the world of just how incompetent and lazy and clueless he is.
Simon suggested that to most effectively go after him, get clear within ourselves what most alarms us about him and do the work of knowing the details (5 paragraphs; not 50!) so we could talk from our own perspective. Similar for Biden EXCEPT, of course, to pick what in particular about Biden most compels us to support him. Made good sense to me.
I thought what Simon recommended was dead-on; I have more experience in business than in politics, but I've always found that what he said works--passion, in your own words
You said it more clearly than I did. Yes. Get clear in yourself, “What am I trying to say?”
When it comes to politics, I always think I am supposed to know all 936 (or however many) pages so I won’t screw up. Nope. Speak your truth and back it up with facts.
We’re going to vote for President Biden if they roll him in on a gurney. For the 56% of Democrats who believe President Biden is too old and mentally compromised it is a pure anti tRump vote. The question is will that lack of positive enthusiasm be enough to not only carry the day in the Presidential but also the down ballot races for Congress and the Senate. The latest poll showing the race tight is a strong anti tRump sentiment in spite of a strongly held belief that Biden is personally compromised.
I believe in Joe and the Democrats. As John Pavlovitz wrote today:
"He is an insurrectionist.
He is a traitor.
He is a r*pist.
He is a sociopath.
He is a r*cist.
He killed Roe v Wade.
He is in bed with murderous dictators.
He is escaping legal accountability for his high crimes.
If these facts and the stakes aren't enough to get young people and the undecided on board to vote against him and the GOP (regardless of the nominee) we're really gone as a nation.
If simply putting a younger person in the spot (regardless of who that person is) is supposedly magically enough to engage millions of Americans who would otherwise opt out, that's an indictment of our nation.
I don't know how this will shake out, but America is here because America is broken."
Hear me out... What if all this media hysteria has the opposite, beneficial effect for us? It can actually draw the attention of many voters who have been disengaged so far. If we are smart, we can take advantage of it and showcase our success. Look at how just a small meeting between Biden and Union Executives garnered a lot of media attention, and he did well. From now on, every little event involving Biden will get the media attention we were not getting before. If Joe plays it right, like highlighting the good inflation data in the press conference today, this media frenzy can work to our advantage.
My thoughts exactly. This has done a lot to focus people who WILL vote but have been checked out. They are checked in now. Be ready. It's about fascism and Project 2025 and taking away our fundamental rights. People don't like that. Not here. Not in the United Kingdom. Not in France. And not in South Korea. All of these nations parliamentary elections went to the pro-democracy, (some would say "liberal") side of the aisle. The inevitable rise of the right is a propaganda slogan that doesn't come to pass when we really vote.
Here's a link to Lawrence O'Donnell's show from last night. The episode is excellent, great clip on Harris' speech in Nevada; video on the Biden and Union Exec meeting is at minute 10:35 played in full.
My hope is that what it does is disabuse people, once and for all, of any residual belief they might have that the MSM has done or will ever do the job the Founders protected them for, and that it's up to we the people, using the printing press we've all been given, to crush them at their own game for the next 120 days. I've definitely seen a lot of people at least realizing the complete exposure of the media in this affair.
I’m still hoping to attend tonight’s monthly meeting with subscribers, but the link in the earlier newsletter just went to the Zoom site but not a registration form. Hope someone will fix this today and send a new link!!!
I wish I could help you, but I can't find any mention of tonight's Hopium Chronicles subscribers event in any of Simon's posts this week. And the "events" tab on his Substack page does not have a link to register for tonight's gathering.
Simon, today's update has good data in it. Thanks. I feel the tide has turned against Biden but it seems like Harris can carry the torch and the party just has to make a decision on who the nominee will be, Biden or Harris. Not great, but fine.
"We can win this election but it is going to be bumpy, a bit harder than we hoped, and we need to commit, right now, today". I agree and will commit of course but I (and I think many other supporters) need to see some accountability from the Biden team for putting us in this state. The campaign team needs to be changed up if Biden stays on the ticket. They made a disastrous strategic error and there has to be an adjustment.
✍️ Postcarding opportunity. Donation is NOT required for kits.
The Reform Movement through RAC-FL and Women of Reform Judaism is partnering with the "YES on 4, Floridians Protecting Freedom" campaign to protect reproductive freedom through a November ballot amendment. As part of this campaign we are making sure voters know about this important ballot measure.
"Don't listen to the pundits"
Let me qualify that: Listen *only* to pundits who predicted 2022 would NOT see a Red Wave!
(We’re looking at you, Simon, at Tom Bonier, and at a very tiny group of pundits who deserve to be respectfully listened to.)
Meteorologists and political pundits whose forecasts repeatedly fail miserably should not be given airtime.
I remember Simon saying many times in late summer/early fall 2022 "There could be a red wave, but I'm not seeing any indication of that." :)
You could call their offices individually and voice your concerns. I don't know how much good that would do if you're not in their districts, but it can't hurt! Might even feel good. Just google which reps and senators are publicly calling him out. As for the media, you can call or email all the outlets, and if you're a subscriber, unsubscribe and tell them why. Just my thoughts.
I did just cancel my subscription to the New York Times and the Washington Post is next. To see two formerly stalwart defenders of truth and democracy fall into right wing nuttery is sad beyond belief.
I totally agree!
I sent Biden an respectful email https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/share/ and I also contacted my senator Sherrod Brown. I tried to contact the few democrats from Ohio in Congress (mine is horrible bc of gerrymandering) but their websites say they can only take comments from constituents. Perhaps I'll call.
Brad I am a little surprised by this take. Simon showed some pretty clear data that a supermajority of the country wants President Biden to step aside from the nomination. A majority of Democrats feel this way. And data is starting to show that the VP is very possibly a stronger candidate. I think it would be a terrible sign if no Democratic officials were voicing concern. That would probably be a sign of a broken system
I am open to the idea that President Biden is the strongest, but he has to put the concerns to rest by empathetically addressing it. So far the President has only bristled at this concern and that is understandable. But I think there is a lot of room and appetite by the public to see him earnestly say he hears the concern, why he thinks it is overblown, and being open about what he would see as a concern on his part.
It would be powerful for him to say something like "Part of this concern is on me. I wanted to take politics out of peoples lives after the prior admin, and because of that most of my success and good days go unnoticed. The public is not wrong to be concerned but my strength is in levers of government, not stuffy staged events." Then maybe explain why the 25th amendment is around and how he expects his staff to use it if he were to fall off.
Sometimes I think people like us forget that a lot of the general public doesn't really understand what the branches do, or how the political mechanics work. He hasn't really tried to educate us in these interviews on this yet.
It is not the President's job to assuage peoples concerns? Honestly, I cannot think of a more important job of a leader. And I am not the problem Brad, I am going to vote, I am going to continue to volunteer, I am going to continue to donate.
I am concerned about the people who are not paying close attention who find this stuff incredibly boring, and tedious. People who honestly do not know what would happen if he died or had a stroke. It is the job of a Presidential Candidate to bring those people in and tell them what they need to hear.
Hey man you should probably take a walk or something. You are too hot on this. I would say volunteer for a canvasing shift but I am not sure I want you talking like this to voters.
One of the most popular congress people is Jeff Jackson out of NC, and if you watch his videos all he does is try to explain political mechanics to people. I wish the Biden Team had someone, either VP Harris or President Biden doing the equivalent for the last three years. We would be in much better shape.
Have a good evening.
Feel free to leave Brad. Tired of these threats from people. I am doing my best here every day in a challenging time and if you don't like it please leave.
I am leaving this exchange up for now, but a few notes:
- everything about this exchange violates the basic principals we've tried to establish here at Hopium about respectful, data-driven dialogue, and ignores my repeated entreaties for people to not turn on one another during this challenging time. By doing so you are doing MAGA and Putin's work for them.
- You are not the arbiter of who is loyal to Biden. I went on national television twice yesterday and said I am 100% behind Biden and will fight for him every day for the remainder of the election as hard as I've been fighting for him for the past 4 years. Twice I said this, to millions of people. My wife is a senior advisor to him and has been since the first day of the Administration. That you are turning this into a loyalty test is ridiculous, insulting, juvenile and counter-productive. This is the kind of mindset that tears parties apart - but I guess that is what you want.
- What I am doing here, and have been all week, as a political strategist, is offering my advice on how we can improve his position and win the election. I've been doing that on many issues over the past 18 months and will do so until Election Day.
Just a reminder that the Biden-Harris phone bank link still needs fixing.
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/621448/
Hi Chris, can you please let me know where you saw the Biden-Harris phone bank link that needs fixing?
There are two calling programs, the Call-Crew Anytime program, where you make calls on your schedule with real-time support in Slack. There are also scheduled Zoom phone banks where you call with a group on Zoom after a brief training.
Here are the links: Anytime Calls Training: https://events.democrats.org/event/551644/
Zoom Phone Banks: https://events.democrats.org/event/569897/
I wonder if he means the Biden-Harris "volunteer" button in Simon's post. That link is not very helpful, IMO. It takes me to a page with a list of four "training" type programs, none of which are the type of volunteer opportunities people are looking for (phone banking, texting or post card/letter writing).
YES! I so needed to hear this today. All this Biden-bashing has lit a fire. We're ready for the fight, we're in it to win it! Straight on till morning, people--LOUD and PROUD!
Even at this late hour, is possible for President Biden to withdraw from the race, but some have suggested that he resign the presidency so that Kamala Harris can run as the incumbent. Historically, incumbency is a significant advantage.
Unfortunately, there is a fatal flaw in this plan.
The House of Representatives must, according to the Constitution, confirm the new VP that Harris chooses. That’s right, the Republican-controlled House. Anyone who believes that Speaker Mike Johnson wouldn’t do Trump’s bidding and throw a wrench into the works, is seriously deluded.
And should the House *fail* to approve a new VP, the Constitutional question is: Who will approve the Electoral Votes of the 2024 election? And if no one approves Electoral Votes, who gets to decide who will be the 48th President of the United States?
Surprise, surprise! The House of Representatives, of course – with each state delegation casting a single vote. Even if Democrats succeed with a Blue Wave election in November, the GOP will almost certainly control a majority of those state delegations.
The conclusion is clear: If President Joe Biden were to resign, then the next president will not be Kamala Harris, but Donald J. Trump.
Yes! Team Biden-Harris!
Exactly, that's why we have a VP
When FDR ran for a fourth term, people knew he was ill, and they voted for him anyway. Here is something I found interesting online "Concerned that Roosevelt's ill health would mean the vice president would likely become president, the convention dropped Roosevelt's vice president Henry A. Wallace in favor of Senator Harry S. Truman of Missouri." Not that I am in favor of dropping our VP.
Just think, back then we were fighting authoritarians, now it is virtually a tie featuring an excellent president and an authoritarian. What does that say about the voting public? As a former college history instructor, sometimes I feel quite depressed.
You are so right. Those who think Joe dropping out secures a victory are misguided. It probably helps Trump way more.
That's not how it works. If Biden resigns and Kamala takes over, she would pick a replacement vice-president. Who would have to be confirmed by both the House and the Senate. If one body doesn't approve Harris' choice then we don't have a vice-president. In the case of Biden and Kamala we would be without a vice-president for a very short time. Not worried about that here.
I may well stand corrected on the details; I am not a constitutional expert. But the VP has a key role to play in the confirmation of the Electoral College Vote. If there is no-one in that role, I am told that’s a problem.
In the event that there is no sitting VP, the president pro tem of the Senate will take that spot.
Thank you for clarifying! And that, too, will be decided by the election, no? Or do you mean Senator Patty Murray (Dem.), the President Pro Tempore of the old (i.e. current) Senate?
No, it would be the president pro tem of the new senate.
It will be decided by whoever holds the majority in the Senate.
During that interim period without a vp the Speaker of the House—Mike Johnson—would be next in line.
And that's the worry
Very scary thought.
There isn't an emoji for how I feel about this - no!
One thing you forgot to mention. In the event of a electoral college tie the House would elect the next president but the Senate has to the next vice-president, where it’s 1 person/1 vote. And if it turns out that the Democrats have the majority of the state delegations (26), but the Republicans have a majority in the Senate, you have a scenario where Biden becomes the president but Trump’s VP choice—not Kamala Harris—becomes the vice-president. And if by Jan. 20 the House remains deadlocked in electing a president, then the newly vice-president becomes president.
From everything I have read, it is almost certain that Republicans – not Democrats – will control the majority of state delegations in the House.
Hello ArcticStones,
Interesting perspective. Thanks. We still think both options (Biden staying in, or him resigning as we described in other comments) are viable. But is the Biden resigning option desirable? That is a different question we are not qualified to answer. At any rate, Simon has shown us that our real odds of winning (see 538) have not significantly changed with Biden since the debate. That is something we should all keep in mind.
Anyways, to answer your concerns, everything right now is a matter of crossing over uncharted waters. However, to your specific points, if Biden resigned, we suggest that a President Kamala Harris nominate North Carolina Roy Cooper as VP. MAGA Mike could resist appointing him, but remember that North Carolina could be a battleground state. That move has clear political risks for both Trump and Johnson (see our reasons for that in other comments).
Now, they might be willing to take that risk, if only to cause chaos. That's fine, because, should we win the election, the Brennan Center tells us that "the Senate's presiding officer" would announce the final results (https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/how-electoral-votes-are-counted-presidential-election). If there were no VP, the CURRENT Senate pro tempore (Sen. Patty Murray) would fill that role.
In short, if the current Senate were tied, we would be in a much more disadvantageous position should Biden resign.
Sincerely,
Michael and David Salzillo
Writers of the Political Pulse of America and Salzillo's Two Cents
Thank you Simon fo keeping us focused: our role in this election is consistent with your message via Twitter. We can win this thing, DEMs stop worrying and infighting, start doing. Repeat the good story of the Biden-Harris admin and repeat the disater that is Trump
I read this statement in 'Talking Points Memo'
("But the entire far-right apparatus is continuing to position itself for what looks like an increasingly likely win in the fall, and maybe a big one.)
My whole body froze. Then I move onto your article and I can breathe again. Goodbye TPM.
No matter who the Democrat candidate is, they will be running against a bonafide lunatic! That is the news!!
Gawd. This is hard. Thank you for pulling us from the brink on a daily basis.
I'm with you, Deb! One note: when used as an adjective, it's "Democratic" candidate. "Democrat" used as a modifier is considered pejorative--it's the MAGAT way of belittling us. I think we all hear it so often we just fall into the trap! Here's a comprehensive history of the term from Slate: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/01/democrat-party-republican-insult.html
And WE should not use the term MAGA ( T ) either, as it equates people with insects, which is what they do, not us.
You're absolutely right--it does equate them with insects.
Sorry, I call them MAGAs. 😬
Two things I feel we all should be aware of when reading reports about the confidence of the far right about its chances of gaining big wins:
(1) This kind of talk has been core GOP strategy for as long as I can remember: having made registration and voting more difficult than anywhere else in the world, and understanding Americans' obsession with being on the winning side (eg look at the relative sizes of the fan bases of our winning and losing sports teams), the GOP's approach is *always* to make its own supporters so confident of victory that they'll walk on broken glass to get to the polls, while scaring, intimidating, and demoralizing Dems (for whose core constituencies they've made registering and voting esp difficult) so that we don't volunteer and don't show up. They got caught with their hands in the cookie jar on this in 2022 when Simon exposed their efforts to game the polling averages with hundreds of phony polls showing a red wave that never came. But that won't stop them from continuing to deploy it because they've used it to successfully elect a lot more people than they should have been able to in a democracy where they are in the clear minority, and have been for years.
(2) Since 2016, the media has happily amplified this particular "resistance is futile" narrative because Trump is good for business (granted, I don't normally consider the Guardian to be party to this, but they could well be reporting on the basis of those who are), and now that their industry is in existential crisis, it's not surprising that they are doubling and doubling down.
Josh Marshall wrote this?
I am seeing some pretty scary stuff from good sources.
From the NYT - Trump Ally training militia in Long Island
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/11/nyregion/bruce-blakeman-armed-citizens-long-island.html?unlocked_article_code=1.6U0.ZqG7.nYweudu3O2Pb&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Ivan Raiklin and Retribution Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/10/trump-deep-state-target-list-ivan-raiklin-jamie-raskin
It really feels like this is stuff that needs to be out there LOUD as well. I don't think the public knows anything about it.
Thanks for posting this. Yes, I live here and this smelled rotten from the start. And now with all of the attention to Trump’s militia plans it all makes sense. While I’m glad the NYT is reporting this, perhaps they should consider whether they want to support the guy who wants to use government force against his critics or the guy who’s saving democracy.
See the message from NYT’s Editorial Board in today’s edition:
"Donald Trump is unfit to lead"
With a long paragraph included slagging Biden and another singing the praises of such luminaries as Bush, Romney, and Reagan.
https://www.emptywheel.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/NYT-Defiance-2-scaled.jpg
Well. Let's take a breath for a moment. There have been militia all along. We saw some of those militia on January 6. I am 100% certain the DOJ, FBI, and our national security apparatus know about these groups.
The larger issue is why is the New York times bringing this up now?
great point - why are they? I agree that the DOJ, etc is aware of this and has plans. I think it is time that the public fully understands who is behind this.
My larger point is that is quite possible these groups have been around for awhile. I surely don't trust the Times.
Whenever I hear stirrings about militias I think of the significant number of January 6 insurrectionists in jail including the leader of the proud boys. Since January 6 despite trump's urgings of people to defend him this simply hasn't happened.
Pretty obvious, isn't it? And it's definitely not because they're worried we'll be complacent otherwise. Maybe it's just "if it bleeds, it leads," but personally I'm catching the stench of voter intimidation in the air.
The Republicans have already been making waves about all the people they will have watching the polls.
Agreed, but we have to be careful about how we deploy it. Eg we trumpet our 2020 turnout, but it ranked 135th in the world (our midterm turnout ranked 165th), and we'll never know, after the deluge of stories in Sept-Oct 2020 predicting violence at the polls, how many failed to show up b/c they 'didn't want any trouble." We're all here because we want to make "good trouble," but a lot of folks don't want any part of that, and I feel it's important to know who will be fired up (and target them) while leaving others in relative blissful ignorance, rather than worried that Trump will break into the ballot boxes, ID everyone who voted for Biden and put us all in camps--these fascists already use their cell phones to intimidate people going to the polls by taking their pictures (and smiling). Now if I could share such stories paired with others about ex-front-line military left-wing militias organizing to protect polling places, I might feel differently. Maybe it's just my testosterone talking, but I feel it's about time we start putting the other side on its back foot where its threats of violence are concerned. ;)
Simon Rosenberg, your finest post and marching instructions, ever.
Nice job, Simon! Way to keep us focused on defeating Trump and saving our democracy from him!
“Overall, 2 in 3 adults say the president [Biden] should step aside, including more than 7 in 10 independents.”
. – The Washington Post
Let’s see a corresponding poll that shows how many Americans want ex-president Trump to withdraw his candidacy!
The obvious equivalent is a poll asking:
“Given that fact-checking revealed that Trump told over 35 lies during the debate, and that he refused to promise to accept November’s election results, do you think he should withdraw as a presidential candidate?"
Given that he is an illiterate, raping, lying, coup-plotting felon…
And what does it tell us that there was no such preface in any question they asked about Trump?
Agreed. Thanks to Simon for the pep talk because I have felt much anger lately. Most of the anger is directed at those who have decided the rest of us must be replace Biden. He has been a remarkably successful president and he's being treated very disrespectfully. George Clooney doesn't speak for me.
My biggest issue with George Clooney is that he chose to go public and in the NYT of all papers. Why try to humiliate President Biden this way? It sort of seemed personal - to me at least. Not saying he doesn't believe what he wrote. BUT why go public with it? And why the NYT. He had to know it would go viral. Why not The Guardian for example? Having said this, I still the he should have done this privately.
Who ARE these people they’re polling??? 🤦🏼♀️🤦🏼♀️🤦🏼♀️
Thank you! It’s so dispiriting. But I get back up and get back to work.
Honestly, am I the only one who feels like a ping pong ball, being whacked first one way and then another?
Please read and pass along Seth Abramson’s piece. https://open.substack.com/pub/sethabramson/p/we-now-know-what-really-happened?r=41p0j&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&comments=true
Wow! That article should be front and center, and widely circulated.
Thank you so much for sharing! I sent an email pointing it out to two journalists who just published a front-page article on Norway’s premier news site, NRK.no.
I know, right? The entire article is amazing. I’m not on any social media so I’m counting on others to help get it out there!
Thank you! 💙
Wow, this is amazing! I would love to see it reach as many people as possible. If I knew how to share this on Instagram, I would. I originally signed up to follow other accounts and am not active as a poster there, but have recently been sharing more political things, hoping that my small group of followers might pass it on.
Thanks. Please do share. 💙
Dang! What a great piece--thanks much for sharing (I'll be sharing too--in a newsletter I write for a politically well-connected client). Some will say TL;DR to which I (always) reply: TL?R?YL (your loss). And amazingly it still leaves out some great details, eg yes, Trump insisted on one-pagers, yes, he insisted on lots of pictures, but there's no mention of the fact, according to briefers, that he could/would only concentrate on written sentences in the brief that had *his name in the sentence,* in *all caps*!
I appreciate your feedback (and ArcticStones’ and Antoinette’s). I know it was really long. Tonite Simon said many important and clarifying (for me) things. One was to keep going after our opponent, the illiterate, lying, raping, coup-plotting, felon. I felt some relief that somebody was reminding the world of just how incompetent and lazy and clueless he is.
Simon suggested that to most effectively go after him, get clear within ourselves what most alarms us about him and do the work of knowing the details (5 paragraphs; not 50!) so we could talk from our own perspective. Similar for Biden EXCEPT, of course, to pick what in particular about Biden most compels us to support him. Made good sense to me.
I thought what Simon recommended was dead-on; I have more experience in business than in politics, but I've always found that what he said works--passion, in your own words
You said it more clearly than I did. Yes. Get clear in yourself, “What am I trying to say?”
When it comes to politics, I always think I am supposed to know all 936 (or however many) pages so I won’t screw up. Nope. Speak your truth and back it up with facts.
Who knew? 😆
I also think there’s a large number of Dem voters who think Biden should step down, but are also going to vote for him no matter what.
We’re going to vote for President Biden if they roll him in on a gurney. For the 56% of Democrats who believe President Biden is too old and mentally compromised it is a pure anti tRump vote. The question is will that lack of positive enthusiasm be enough to not only carry the day in the Presidential but also the down ballot races for Congress and the Senate. The latest poll showing the race tight is a strong anti tRump sentiment in spite of a strongly held belief that Biden is personally compromised.
Let's hope this turns around and also that it does not mean they won't vote for Biden - if he stays in the race.
I believe in Joe and the Democrats. As John Pavlovitz wrote today:
"He is an insurrectionist.
He is a traitor.
He is a r*pist.
He is a sociopath.
He is a r*cist.
He killed Roe v Wade.
He is in bed with murderous dictators.
He is escaping legal accountability for his high crimes.
If these facts and the stakes aren't enough to get young people and the undecided on board to vote against him and the GOP (regardless of the nominee) we're really gone as a nation.
If simply putting a younger person in the spot (regardless of who that person is) is supposedly magically enough to engage millions of Americans who would otherwise opt out, that's an indictment of our nation.
I don't know how this will shake out, but America is here because America is broken."
Hear me out... What if all this media hysteria has the opposite, beneficial effect for us? It can actually draw the attention of many voters who have been disengaged so far. If we are smart, we can take advantage of it and showcase our success. Look at how just a small meeting between Biden and Union Executives garnered a lot of media attention, and he did well. From now on, every little event involving Biden will get the media attention we were not getting before. If Joe plays it right, like highlighting the good inflation data in the press conference today, this media frenzy can work to our advantage.
My thoughts exactly. This has done a lot to focus people who WILL vote but have been checked out. They are checked in now. Be ready. It's about fascism and Project 2025 and taking away our fundamental rights. People don't like that. Not here. Not in the United Kingdom. Not in France. And not in South Korea. All of these nations parliamentary elections went to the pro-democracy, (some would say "liberal") side of the aisle. The inevitable rise of the right is a propaganda slogan that doesn't come to pass when we really vote.
Here's a link to Lawrence O'Donnell's show from last night. The episode is excellent, great clip on Harris' speech in Nevada; video on the Biden and Union Exec meeting is at minute 10:35 played in full.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fERNPp4G2Sw
My hope is that what it does is disabuse people, once and for all, of any residual belief they might have that the MSM has done or will ever do the job the Founders protected them for, and that it's up to we the people, using the printing press we've all been given, to crush them at their own game for the next 120 days. I've definitely seen a lot of people at least realizing the complete exposure of the media in this affair.
I’m still hoping to attend tonight’s monthly meeting with subscribers, but the link in the earlier newsletter just went to the Zoom site but not a registration form. Hope someone will fix this today and send a new link!!!
Same here! I was unable to register.
I wish I could help you, but I can't find any mention of tonight's Hopium Chronicles subscribers event in any of Simon's posts this week. And the "events" tab on his Substack page does not have a link to register for tonight's gathering.
Simon, today's update has good data in it. Thanks. I feel the tide has turned against Biden but it seems like Harris can carry the torch and the party just has to make a decision on who the nominee will be, Biden or Harris. Not great, but fine.
"We can win this election but it is going to be bumpy, a bit harder than we hoped, and we need to commit, right now, today". I agree and will commit of course but I (and I think many other supporters) need to see some accountability from the Biden team for putting us in this state. The campaign team needs to be changed up if Biden stays on the ticket. They made a disastrous strategic error and there has to be an adjustment.
I sure hope they know how to deal with a "Gish gallop" next time.
Journalist Scott Dworkin’s campaign to pressure media to cover Trump’s mental decline is trending. If you’re on social media, please amplify.📣
https://x.com/funder/status/1811145517298241881
✍️ Postcarding opportunity. Donation is NOT required for kits.
The Reform Movement through RAC-FL and Women of Reform Judaism is partnering with the "YES on 4, Floridians Protecting Freedom" campaign to protect reproductive freedom through a November ballot amendment. As part of this campaign we are making sure voters know about this important ballot measure.
https://urj.tfaforms.net/1464
I’ve been doing lots of RAC postcarding, earlier in VA and NC, and now FL. Great effort.