Inflation FELL in June, Joe Biden Is A Successful President, Trump Is A Traitor And Putin's Lap Dog

Polling Has Been Decent This Week, The Election Is Close - Let's Go Win This Thing, Together

Happy Thursday all. Got a few important things for you today:

Inflation FELL In June, Joe Biden Is A Successful President - From CNN this morning:

US consumer prices did something in June that they haven’t done since the early part of the pandemic: They fell.

Consumer prices dropped 0.1% on a monthly basis, helping to bring the annual rate of inflation to 3% from 3.3% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Consumer Price Index report.

Falling gas prices as well as a drop in new and used car prices helped to usher in the overall decline, which marks the first month-on-month decline since May 2020, BLS data showed.

Economists were expecting a 0.1% monthly increase and an annual gain of 3.1%, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

Excluding energy and food prices, a closely watched “core” index of underlying inflation also slowed more than expected. The core CPI rose 0.1% from May — its slowest pace since August 2021 — nudging the annual rate of core inflation lower, to 3.3% from 3.4%, and marking a fresh three-year low.

Inflation was zero in May and fell in June. Inflation has been only 2.1% annualized over the last 6 months which is what the Fed has been seeking. Interest rate cuts are far more likely now. We had another good jobs report on Friday, and great American job machine keeps doing its thing. The stock market has set new records this week. The good economic news just keep coming, and reminds us that Joe Biden has a good and successful American President:

In the last few months we’ve gotten repeated and powerful confirmations of the success of the Biden Presidency - inflation *fell* last month and prices of many goods are failing, crime and murder rates are way down, gas prices are down, the flow to the border is down. We’ve had the strongest economic recovery of any advanced economy in the world, the best job market since the 1960s, the lowest uninsured rate in American history, the deficit is trillions less, the Dow has broken 40,000 and all three indices continue hover in record territory. Domestic oil, gas and renewable production continue to be at all time highs leaving America more energy independent than it has been in decades. The Wall Street Journal called the American economy the “envy of the world,” and the Economist just wrote about the unprecedented start up boom America is experiencing right now. Biden’s big three investment bills have dramatically accelerated the energy transition necessary to combat climate change and will be creating opportunities and jobs for our workers for decades to come. He has reinvigorated the Western alliance, and helped Europe defeat the fascists in recent European and French elections.

Joe Biden promised to make things better for all of us, to get us successfully to the other side of COVID. And he has. He has been a very successful President for America.

Here’s a great new ad the Biden-Harris campaign released this morning about Trump’s ongoing betrayal of the country, Lap Dog:

The choice is clear my friends, and we need to be loud and proud about the achievements of our wonderful President, Joe Biden. Loud and proud people!

I Remain Optimistic We Can Win This Election - From Monday - the failure of the European far right in recent months is similar to MAGA’s ongoing failures and underperformances here, and is a central reason for my ongoing optimism about the November election; Biden is likely to lose 2-3 pts post-debate, meaningful but not catastrophic, while Trump continues to show significant weakness; the 538 election forecast today still shows a 50-50 race. In a new CNN interview I discuss how doubts about Biden’s health and fitness is a serious problem with voters not just elites, and these concerns need to be addressed forcefully by the President and his campaign in the days ahead if he is to lead us to victory.

I sat down to look at the data we’ve seen this week and it’s actually fine, not scary. Here are some polls 538 added this week, Biden-Trump:

• 44%-42% GW/YouGov

• 47%-46% Split Ticket/Data For Progress

• 50%-50% Emerson College

• 46%-46% Washington Post (Harris leads Trump)

• 42%-43% Redfield & Wilton

• 42%-43% Bendixen and Amandi (Harris leads Trump)

• 41%-42% Big Village

• 42%-44% Morning Consult

And the Bloomberg/Morning Consult battleground poll released last weekend has Biden gaining 2, 46%-48% and ahead in MI and WI. The current 538 forecast has Biden at 270 today (MI, PA, WI and NE-2 is 270):

We also had some good polls of our party’s strength this week:

The bottom line here that while we’ve dropped a bit in recent weeks we can still win this election. It is a close and competitive election, and we cannot let the media red wave this thing in the coming days.

There are two bits of data I want to discuss from the new Washington Post (gift link so all can read) poll this morning that has the election tied, 46%-46%. First, the Post is the latest poll showing that Vice President Harris is stronger than conventional wisdom has held, and is bringing a lot to the ticket right now. We haven’t had a lot of data about the Vice President but the new data we’ve been receiving these past few weeks has been very encouraging:

Second, and this one is very important for this community to pay attention to, and process - a majority of Democrats believe Biden should leave the race:

This data is consistent with the data I’ve been writing and sharing with you this week.

What does all this mean? We can win this election. The Democratic brand is holding. Trump is still the ugliest political thing we’ve ever seen, MAGA remains a cold stone loser and as I wrote yesterday they are so worried about his bat shit crazy public performances they are keeping him from the trail. The debate we are having now about our path forward is healthy and necessary, as concerns about the President’s health and fitness are widespread inside the Democratic family. If the President remains as our nominee he will have to forcefully address these concerns to be able to win. If the President decides not to run, most polls showing Harris matching or exceeding Biden’s numbers, and in the Post poll an overwhelming majority of Democrats would be fine making the change and having her as the nominee. Not surprisingly, our coalition is ready to get behind either of them and go out and win this thing.

There is no simple or easy path here any more. We are not where we want to be today and have a lot of work to do. We can win this election but it is going to be bumpy, a bit harder than we hoped, and we need to commit, right now, today, to approaching these next few months from a place of respect - respect for our President, respect for party leaders, respect for one another. If we fall apart as a party, or yield to infighting, we will lose.

For those of you on social media recognize that there already has been an escalation of malicious accounts attempting to turn us against one another. To “sow discord” as the Intelligence Community describes it. The US government just did a major take down of Russian accounts on Twitter spreading disinformation this week. The Intelligence Community warned this week that Russia was once again planning a major social media effort to help Trump win. We also learned this week that the Iranian government played a significant role in amplifying divisive social media content in the Israel-Hamas conflict, even providing funding for groups here in the US. We cannot be naive here folks, What Russia, Iran, China, Trump and MAGA want more than anything else is us fighting with one another, disengaging from the work we must do, and having our coalition fall apart. There is going to be an enormous investment by these malicious forces to sow discord in our family regardless of whether we stick with the President or rally behind the Vice President. Be smart here. Understand the play, and DO NOT BECOME AN ENABLER OF THESE EFFORTS. Be respectful, be wise, be emphatic and recognize that we need to stay together AT ALL COSTS NO MATTER what happens. These next few months are going to be an extraordinary test of our Party, and failure, my friends, is not an option.

We can and should win this election. When people in the West go vote the fascists just keep losing, and should again this November. I am proud of my President, proud of my party, and proud of all of you. What we do together, whether we put our heads down no matter what happens and do the work, may literally determine the fate of liberal democracy here and all around the world.

So process all this new information. Talk to your friends and family. Rest up, have a drink, go for a run, read the new Daniel Silva Gabriel Allon novel (I am), watch the new Game of Thrones series, sign up for a phone bank shift, a canvass, donate to a candidate, write Joe Biden a letter letting him know how grateful you are he is our President during this challenging time. But DO NOT GIVE INTO ANGER, FRUSTRATION, FEAR. It’s how they win, and we lose, and we here the proud patriots of Hopium are not going to let that happen. We, here, are going to lead our party to victory this November no matter what happens for not a single one of us when our democracy calls is going to fail to answer that call.

Looking forward to kicking all sorts of MAGA ass with all of you this fall and thank you for all that you do for your democracy, your country and our party.

Making July Count/We Cannot Let Up - Friends, we just did a remarkable job together here making June count. In five weeks from late May to June 30th we raised over $1m for our candidates and party committees. Many of you have been out there hustling for candidates, writing postcards, canvassing, calling and texting. We launched our Winning the House campaign which brought in more $500,000 for our 12 Hopium-endorsed candidates with the best opportunity to flip seats and help us take back the House. We added the blue dot in Nebraska to our “checkmate” state strategy, one designed to get us to 270 electoral college votes and win the election. We raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Biden-Harris, including more than $100,000 in the days after the debate. When called once again the Hopium community answered. And today I am calling again by launching a new “Make July Count” campaign, with new goals for July 31st, below.

We cannot let up now, not for a moment. We are deep into the 2024 election and while it is summer, and we are not all on same page today, we cannot stop working to make the election everything we want it to be. So please do something this week to support this new campaign, and be on the look out for many more interviews of our endorsed House candidates in the coming days. Trying to get the remaining eight done by early August.

We can do this people!

• Biden-Harris - $569,000 today, $650,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Winning The House - $496,000 today, $600,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve also raising more then $40,000 into the individual House campaigns (you can either give to all 12 or each one individually)

• North Carolina - $314,000 today, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $282,000 today, $350,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $110,000 today, $150,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

Here’s how you can do even more:

• Watch our interviews with Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) and Andrei Cherny (AZ-01)

• Volunteer for the Biden-Harris campaign - Their phonebanks into the battleground are ratcheting up this week. I’m going to do at least one shift - can you join me?

• Join me and Anderson Clayton in Raleigh on Friday, July 19th by donating to the NCDP Unity Dinner and signing up here

• Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you

Finally help me spread Hopium and grow this plucky community. Sign others up to be a Hopium subscriber at this link. Note that options for group and gift subscriptions are available to those who want to bring friends and colleagues into the Hopium community. Click on the group and gift tabs here to learn more. To update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep the Hopium flowing and our community growing!

Keep working hard all. Heads down, connect to your love of country and let’s go win this thing, together - Simon