President Biden's Powerful NATO Speech, Making July Count, One Guy Had A Bad Debate and Disappeared - Trump
Just added my CNN hit from this morning - enjoy!
Happy Wednesday all. Got a few things for you today:
First, Some Toplines:
Another Good Jobs Report, Joe Biden Is A Successful President - On Friday we were reminded that the economy just keeps growing and producing jobs, wage growth remains strong and robust, inflation was zero last month and the American economy continues to be the “envy of the world.”
With Democrats, Things Get Better - My big presentation on the greatness and goodness of the modern Democratic Party. Essential viewing for all members of the Hopium community. Newly updated a few week ago.
Dems Need A Big Reform and Renewal Agenda - Some thoughts about a possible addition to our 2024 offering - a big agenda to tackle corruption, clean up Washington and strengthen our democracy.
My Latest Take On The 2024 Election - From Monday - failure of the European far right in recent months similar to MAGA’s ongoing failures and underperformances here, central reason for my ongoing optimism about the November election; Biden likely to lose 2-3 pts post-debate, meaningful but not catastrophic, while Trump continues to show significant weakness; 538 election forecast still shows a 50-50 race. From yesterday - doubts about Biden’s health and fitness is a serious problem with voters not just elites, and these concerns need to be addressed forcefully by the President and his campaign in the days ahead if we are to win.
The President’s Powerful, Important Speech To NATO Last Night - Friends, if you do one thing today watch this, and share with your networks…..
Making July Count/We Cannot Let Up - Friends, we just did a remarkable job together here making June count. In five weeks from late May to June 30th we raised over $1m for our candidates and party committees. Many of you have been out there hustling for candidates, writing postcards, canvassing, calling and texting. We launched our Winning the House campaign which brought in more $500,000 for our 12 Hopium-endorsed candidates with the best opportunity to flip seats and help us take back the House. We added the blue dot in Nebraska to our “checkmate” state strategy, one designed to get us to 270 electoral college votes and win the election. We raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Biden-Harris, including more than $100,000 in the days after the debate. When called once again the Hopium community answered. And today I am calling again by launching a new “Make July Count” campaign, with new goals for July 31st, below.
As I’ve been writing, we cannot let up now, not for a moment. We are deep into the 2024 election now and while it is summer, and we are not all on same page today, we cannot stop working to make the election everything we want it to be. So please do something this week to support this new campaign, and be on the look out for many more interviews of our endorsed House candidates in the coming days. Trying to get the remaining eight done by early August.
We can do this people!
Biden-Harris - $566,000 today, $650,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Winning The House - $492,000 today, $600,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More. We’ve also raising more then $40,000 into the individual House campaigns (you can either give to all 12 or each one individually)
North Carolina - $314,000 today, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $281,000 today, $350,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $110,000 today, $150,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb
Here’s how you can do even more:
Watch our interviews with Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) and Andrei Cherny (AZ-01)
Volunteer for the Biden-Harris campaign - Their phonebanks into the battleground are ratcheting up this week. I’m going to do at least one shift - can you join me?
Join me and Anderson Clayton in Raleigh on Friday, July 19th by donating to the NCDP Unity Dinner and signing up here
Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you
Finally help me spread Hopium and grow this plucky community. Sign others up to be a Hopium subscriber at this link. Note that options for group and gift subscriptions are available to those who want to bring friends and colleagues into the Hopium community. Click on the group and gift tabs here to learn more. To update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep the Hopium flowing and our community growing!
My Appearance on CNN This Morning - Talked about our current moment on CNN this morning. My bottom line - I’m with Joe but if we want to win he has to address the concerns about his health and fitness head on, not dimiss them. Watch and enjoy.
Ukrainian Tennis Star Elina Svitolina At Wimbledon Holds Back Tears After Big Win - This interview is a must watch. It came on the morning Trump’s ally Putin bombed the largest children’s hospital in Ukraine, one of the largest children’s hospitals in Europe.
One Guy Had A Really Bad Debate and Disappeared. It Wasn’t Our Guy - In the debate Donald Trump was bat-shit crazy. It was in my view his worst major public event since he started running in 2015.. We know from the live polling that night that people recoiled at his performance. While Biden has dropped in the polls since the debate, Trump has not gained.
The evidence the Trump campaign was worried about the Trump we all saw that night was that they’ve taken him off the campaign trail. His first appearance in twelve days was last night, at one of his own golf courses in Florida not in a battleground, and he was just as bat-shit crazy as he was in the debate - praising Hannibal Lechter and going on what can only be described as truly insane rants like this one:
Meanwhile our guy has been out there campaigning in the battlegrounds, leading the world at a NATO Summit, getting aid to flood victims in Texas etc. Since the debate one guy has been out there hustling, doing the work, leading the nation and the world and the other guy, their guy was taken off the trail. I really believe the Trump campaign is worried about him, and as I wrote yesterday, his extremism. They know this version of Trump - more extreme and dangerous, bat-shit crazy on the stump, rapist/fraudster/traitor/felon, is going to be a very hard sell, and it is going to be hard for them to win.
Stuff like this is also going to make it harder for them. Presidential candidates need everyone on board to win a close election. That they are telling Haley to get lost is another sign of how reckless and crazy Trump 2024 is.
Again, here, in the real world, we should view all this as a sign of weakness and desperation not strength and savvy; another sign that if we do the work we can win this thing, together.
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
A VISION FOR AMERICA
As Simon has underscored, Team Biden and Democrats need to formulate a clear and inspiring Vision for America. To save democracy, Team Biden must win in 2024, and we also need to flip the House and hold the Senate. If we do, here are my *Twelve Points for a Democratic Agenda*:
1. Pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act – incl. automatic voter registration.
2. Mandate independent re-districting (end gerrymandering).
3. Expand and reform SCOTUS. End “judge shopping”.
4. Repeal Trump’s costly and misguided tax cuts.
5. Pass Biden’s full “Build Back Better” legislation, with universal pre-K and childcare support.
6. Make child tax credits permanent.
7. Statehood for DC – and Puerto Rico should their citizens choose!
8. Federal protection of abortion rights, IVF and contraception (Reinstate Roe v Wade)
9. Allow Medicare to negotiate ALL drug prices!
10. Accelerate America’s clean energy transition. Wind down coal-fired power plants.
11. Incorporate climate measures into the Defense Budget.
12. End the revolving door between government, lobbyists and industry.
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With this visionary agenda, the economic benefits and other advantages of present and future Biden-Harris legislation will become far more visible to Americans. Compared with Trump’s Project 2025, that will make the choice in November dramatically clear!
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Thanks, Simon – this is all great. A few thoughts today:
1. As FDR wisely said, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”
2. A new Northeastern University study found Biden’s poor debate performance had almost no impact on voter preference. “If anything, it seems Biden is holding on to his people somewhat better than Trump.” https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/07/09/biden-debate-performance-voter-preferences/
3. If you’re worried about polls, consider that in July 1988, Gallup had Dukakis leading Bush by 17 points, 55%-38%. And in October 2012, Gallup had Romney beating Obama by 4 points, 50%-46%.
4. When voters cast ballots in 2024 presidential primaries, Biden has outperformed Trump within their respective parties by nearly 11 points. Over 14 million Americans voted for Biden to be their Democratic nominee, and all of them knew he's old. In Pennsylvania, over 2 million people voted in the presidential primary. The underreported results: Biden got 946K votes (47% of the vote), Trump got 793K votes (39%). Biden got more votes in PA’s 2024 primary than both Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 1996.
5. Biden also got more votes in the 2024 NH Democratic primary than both Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 1996. And Biden’s name wasn’t even on the ballot – all his votes were written in! His strength in the grassroots appears to be greatly under appreciated.
6. As Simon says, “We’ve got to keep our heads down and do the work. Don’t get blown off course. Worry less and do more. Loud and proud!”