That is an excellent point! In business survey research, we constantly seek to ferret out all the ways we might be providing opportunities for respondents to just look good or tell us what they think we want to hear. We do it because if we don't, our clients could misspend a *lot* of money. Other than the topline question--who are you going to vote for?--there doesn't seem to be the same level of accountability in a lot of political polling. Yet. I have a feeling Simon is starting to change that ;)
“Listen, Donald, President Biden has Made America Great Again – after your catastrophic four years. By every measure, we are now the envy of the world. So stop your treasonous whining and stop shit talking America!!
“It’s time to protect America! Let’s build a wall and a Faraday cage around Mar-a-Lago. I’m sure Mexico, Canada and a healthy majority of Americans will gladly help pay for it.
It's possible, for the first time, that a state justice can lock up the big bloated orange canary in a gilded cage at the top of Trump Tower in Manhattan. If he can't find the judicial strength to give him jail time, a prolonged period of house arrest and very visible community service in a most humble way would be an acceptable alternative, IMHO.
I would like to see more Democratic Leaders also leaving it all out on the field. It just seems confusing that Joe Biden doesn't have more outspoken cheerleaders from his own party. And when they decide to come in towards the end, notwithstanding their great rhetoric, it appears to many that they are "hired" or doing it "under pressure" or "desperation" not true believers. If they were, why wouldn't they be out there being loud and proud about Pres. Biden all along not just towards the end of the election cycle? And, if nothing else, the troops would love to see that the Dem leadership is working as hard as they are. Clearly there are some exceptions, but the opposite should be true, everyone of them should be outwardly campaigning.
There are quite a few Democrats being loud and proud: Newsom, Shapiro, Fetterman, Pritzker; members of Joe Biden's cabinet, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden himself that I have been hearing throughout social media, and tv, but often the media is favoring trump et.al. I think Jaime Harrison is reaching out through state democrats to shore up support there so we can win all those down ticket races. At some point, the American people themselves should care enough to get informed and I believe that has started kicking in now that kids are out of school. Simon's right to focus on June.
Happy for you that you see the situation this way. I respectfully disagree. I do not think these party representatives are giving the media enough to report on. When you know what the media is looking for, you need to figure it out. To my mind the fact that the race is so close indicates that the message is not getting out. I do not blame the media entirely for this situation.
Dear High Priest of Hopium* – Why don’t pundits think of yesterday’s special election in Ohio as "a high-quality poll of voters in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District"? Isn’t this essentially what the special election was? And with a much higher "response rate" than just about any other poll being conducted these days!
And moreover, doesn’t this latest high-quality Ohio poll seriously call into question all those lower-quality, low-response polls?
.
*) Just to be clear, this is how Politico refers to Simon.
For whatever reason (maybe Simon can explain the why of this), the pundits don’t like to use actual election results as evidence- they’ll all say that special elections are different, they bring out the most engaged voters, can’t extrapolate these results to a general election, etc.
There’s certainly some truth to that (in the same way that primary voters are the most engaged voters), but it’s like 2022 all over again: pundits clinging to polls as THE only story of the election while many other signs (fundraising, voter registration, special elections, early voting enthusiasm) tell a different story.
Specials aren't predictive, just like polling isn't predictive. But the idea that lots of people voting in an election can't tell you something important about that election is, um, ridiculous.
Every election is unique, sui generis, not like any other election. Every bit of data about this election is vital. Everything tells you something. Dismissing data like our strong performance in the specials, the early vote, fundraising and voter reg as being unimportant is part of how so many ended up with red wave in 2022. We should not be poll centric in our analysis. It matters, but so does a lot of other stuff. You think the Cook Report for example only builds their ratings through polling? They use lots of other inputs to make their assessments, as do I, including more than 30 years in the game and having worked in many of these states.
Get out the AI platform, build an adequately sophisticated neural network on characteristics of the "likely voter" and additional inputs on the state of the world and it may just become possible to accurately predict the turnout and the likely voting behavior of those who end up voting.
The most charitable explanation is that because 2020 had 50 million more voters turn out than 2022, (more drop off in specials and odd years) therefore we must assume those 50 million hold dramatically different feelings about politics than those who did vote. I don't know if it holds up to much scrutiny. Equally possible that most of the non voters just didn't know or didn't think their vote would matter.
For me 2022 just looks like the Republicans were able to mobilize 73% of there coalition and we were able to mobilize 63% ours and we basically won. We simply have more voters to draw on and the key seems to be convincing that their vote matters this time.
I know you've been active here for months and I am little surprised that you haven't come to understand my core analysis about 2022. That there were two elections - a bluer elections inside the battleground, a redder election outside. Your data doesn't explain what happened inside the battlegrounds and how we outperformed our 2020 vote there, and picked up governorships, state legislative chambers, a Senate seat. We did better in 7 battleground states in 2022 than 2020 - AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA.
I see the miscommunication "that they have to have a higher batting average at turning out their non voters (did not vote since 2020) than we do." - If they want to win.
The only voters that matter are those that show up and vote. If you don't vote, you forfeit your right to representation. All of the polling and analysis of surrogate markers like special elections add up to vague predictions for a national election still months from now. I'm not sure just how "likely voters" translate to actual voters, but in a country where only 60% of eligible and registered voters show up to the polls in an average election, it seems all methods fall short of accurately predicting the behavior of those who end up casting a vote. Why do the other 40% even bother to register???
Well, first of all, they don't register. The percentage of registered voters who vote our country is actually pretty good--not the best, but not the embarrassment that our overall turnout is.
But according to one recent study, the only countries in the world that put more burden on their citizens in the registration process are Bhutan and the Bahamas. While other democracies are scouring their databases for every possible data or touch point to justify automatically registerimg every citizen, even going door to door at taxpayer expense to register their entire electorate, one of our two political parties not only puts roadblock after roadblock in the path to registration (only for certain voting blocks, of course, not others, see eg how WI's voter ID law is administered), but then engages in scare tactics (like telling young voters they will lose their financial aid if they register to vote where they're going to college) and full-on intimidation (like what happened in South Texas in 2020). All of this is plainly unconstitutional under the second clause of the 14th amendment (to any Justice for whom English isn't a 7th language)--there are even Old Testament-type penalties prescribed for states in violation--but until we decide to do something about it, voter registration will continue to be responsible for the biggest drop off in the torturous path from citizenship to the voting booth. It's a testament to how much more we represent the will and optimism of the people that we win as many elections as we do!
🔸Lie 🔸Insult opponents 🔸Project weakness on others 🔸Deflect 🔸Distract 🔸Present competing versions of reality 🔸Us vs Them 🔸Confuse, disorient, coerce followers 🔸Create fear 🔸Repeat lies so followers believe
I was listening to Sarah Longwell. She has a lot of great points. Biden should use surrogates out there like Shiparo, Whitmer to talk to and travel around the country. In her townhall Harris gets poor points
I wrote 100 cards to Ohio 6 as part of the PTV campaign. Right now we’re writing for Trisha Calvarese (D) for Ken Buck’s old seat, special election June 25. Join us! We need new writers ASAP!
To volunteer for Postcards To Voters, go to https://postcardstovoters.org/ and follow the prompts under “Sign Up.” The process for approval is quick and efficient.
I also write with ActivateAmerica.vote; I have written in several Spanish language campaigns there, so you might wish to check them out, too. (You can email them to find out when their next Spanish-language campaign starts this summer.)
Another great group for postcarding is FieldTeam6.com (“Register to Vote; Save The World!”).
Hi Laura, I’m curious how ActivateAmerica does their Spanish language campaigns. I write for Center for Common Ground and one critical line (Vote on Nov 5….) will be in Spanish while rest in English.
My surname is Hispanic, and while I haven’t received voter postcards, I occasionally receive mail entirely in Spanish. I mean…how do they determine who speaks Spanish in the household ? Just the name, I guess ?
Judy, I have been writing postcards for Activate America and have been purchasing stamped postcards from the Post Office since they seem to be the least expensive choice—$.58 each, which includes the postage $.51. Just gather some colored pens at the craft store and get creative! If you send lots, the savings add up! Luckily all the people I have written for so far have won —such a great feeling!
About 4,300 people (plus family and friends) wrote more than 84,000 election reminder postcards to voters in OH 6th district as part of a Postcards to Voters campaign. I was one of them. As in every other Postcards to Voters campaign I've participated in, it was very gratifying to see the impact we've had.
What happened last night in Ohio 6th was remarkable.
Cook Partisan Report rates the district R+16. In 2022, the Republican won by more than 35 points. Trump won the current borders of the district by 29 points in 2020. On top of that, the GOP candidate outspent the Dem candidate by a factor of 76-to-1 ($571,000 to $7,500).
Last night, the Dem candidate hugely overperformed the Cook Partisan rating, the 2022 results, and Trump’s 2020 results. It was an insane overperformance based on the fundamentals.
If Joe Biden is as unpopular with the voters as all the polling says, this result just isn’t possible. If the voters are THAT upset with the incumbent, then results like Ohio 6th don’t happen.
Now, I’m a family law attorney, not a strategist or pollster, but what I see is even if people are dissatisfied with Biden, they still REALLY don’t like MAGA. It’s a binary choice, and voters are showing up to choose the Dems over and over again.
There will be a rematch in the Ohio race in November. This time, Kripchak will have name recognition and a story. I bet he will attract more money, and Republicans are going to be forced to continue to spend money there. That's something that's important about having Dems make a go of it everywhere--A lot of their money is going to Trump's legal fees, and the more they have to spread out what they have left, the better.
I was among the 4000 plus volunteers who wrote postcards for Kripchak, and I have to say that this experience has made me think they really do help turn out Dems. People there are going to start noticing that some of their neighbors are voting blue. I have a friend who is a Republican in a state bordering Ohio who told me that the GOP party chair in her *very red* county told her not to tell anyone, but he thinks they need to see some Democrats win to bring the party back from the brink. I think there may be more people starting to feel this way than we know.
Like Laura, above, I wrote postcards for the Ohio race, and my goal is to double the number I wrote for the Colorado race, in Ken Buck's district which is "only" R+13, and also has the specter of Lauren Boebert running as a Republican in November. I think we are seeing signs that decent people have had it with MAGA, and if prompted and encouraged, even some of the life-long Republicans are ready to pack it in.
"I was among the 4000 plus volunteers who wrote postcards for Kripchak, and I have to say that this experience has made me think they really do help turn out Dems".
Me too. I'm a dedicated postcard writer and also worked in data analytics at a major bank before retiring. I think the "secret sauce" for grassroots postcards is the combination of eye-catching, hand-written postcards, focus-tested messaging, and the high powered analytics used to create the target lists of voters (for GOTV) or prospective voters (for voter registration) who will receive the postcards.
For special elections, a timely reminder about the date of the election (and any early voting periods) can make a huge difference in turnout. In the Tom Suozzi campaign for NY-03, several rounds of postcards went out: (1) to remind people who have voted by mail in the past, to request a mail-in ballot, (2) to remind voters when early voting started, and (3) to remind the remaining voters to vote on election day. Between all those reminders and the GOP tendency to vote on mostly on election day, Suozzi had banked enough votes that the snow storm wasn't a huge deal. Not to mention that encouraging early voting meant that fewer people were in the call lists for phone banking!
For Postcards to Voters campaigns where there are required and optional items to include, I always include the candidate's website and info on where to find the polling locations if it's listed but isn't already a required part of the script. And most recently I started adding a P.S. that was suggested as a generic optional item : "The system works when good voters like you elect good people to office"
As soon as he got that collapsed bridge repaired in basically a couple weeks, I knew he could have a shot at a national-level career. That whole situation was a master class in communication, leadership, and competence.
Don't forget that was also the intense help from Biden & his secretary of transportation and the Army Corps of Engineers in the Federal government. This was showing that when the Federal and State gov'ts work together, good things can happen. Same thing with the bridge collapse in PA a few months ago. Biden has great people working in the administration. Along with great governors, it's a win-win for the American people.
D for the WIN! And can we discuss the re-opening of the Port of Baltimore a mere eleven weeks after the tanker catastrophe that killed six hardworking men? Democratic State, Democratic Governor, Democratic POTUS - the hardworking people of Baltimore can get back to work and feeding their families. Government at its finest. Can you imagine what the fallout would have been if this had happened under felonious punk silver spoon orange baboon? The tragedy would have been politicized and the mangled metal still would be littering the channel. This Ballmer girl is gleeful and full of pride for her city. To quote the colorful Chuck Thompson, the voice of the Orioles, “Ain’t the beer cold!”
One of my messaging t’s says “I’m Voting Yes on Amendment 4” with the appropriate RGB “collar”.
A man recently stopped me in the grocery store parking lot and said, “Woman are not going to stand for that.They may be silent now, but they will come out and vote.” YES !!!!
Please tell me that the Lincoln Project will broadcast this ad this summer on Fox News, Newsmax, One America News (OAN) and throughout Sinclair Broadcast’s network?
To do so, we would need to send them $$$. (Air time is pricey!) I do know they have been running one of their earlier ads in some swing state markets.
But we can all help the ads go viral organically by sharing with friends and posting on our own social media. If you subscribe to their YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@TheLincolnProject) they will send you an alert when they post new content.
Your analysis is the best out there. The expertise you have is unparalleled, and your positivity is incredible. I am so thankful to have found you through Lawrence O'Donnell's program. Hope he has booked you for many weekly spots through the election, along w/ other msm outlets. Your message in its totality is the single most important one for the BH campaign and D's running throughout the country. So much respect and appreciation for what you are doing.
It's very refreshing to hear a high-level politician call Trump a whiner. The mockery cuts through the strong-man b.s. and reveals him for what he is. It's effective in an "emperor has no clothes" kind of way.
Josh Marshall made a similar point following the hush money verdict:
Trump is the biggest whiner in human history--try to name someone famous or who you know who whines more--good luck. Real men don't whine, they take responsibility, they admit mistakes and apologize for them, they don't point fingers, they don't take credit for the work of others, they respect women--in these and so many other ways, Trump is no man at all--and even less of a woman.
Worst of all for the MAGA right, the Ohio district was in the heart of Appalachia, which is practically as "Trump base" as you can get. That poor result is the product of a severe turnout/support problem, and it is happening in one of the most consequential Senate battlegrounds this election season.
Republicans, for all their talk, are on the run. If they can't make the turnout/vote-getting machine work in an increasingly Republican Ohio, then they will find it difficult to do it anywhere else. Which will eventually present us with the long-term opportunity of winning back Rural America (see posts like Michael's on this; in particular, https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com/p/revisiting-rural-america).
That is an excellent point! In business survey research, we constantly seek to ferret out all the ways we might be providing opportunities for respondents to just look good or tell us what they think we want to hear. We do it because if we don't, our clients could misspend a *lot* of money. Other than the topline question--who are you going to vote for?--there doesn't seem to be the same level of accountability in a lot of political polling. Yet. I have a feeling Simon is starting to change that ;)
Josh pulled no punches!
“Listen, Donald, President Biden has Made America Great Again – after your catastrophic four years. By every measure, we are now the envy of the world. So stop your treasonous whining and stop shit talking America!!
– Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, paraphrased
“It’s time to protect America! Let’s build a wall and a Faraday cage around Mar-a-Lago. I’m sure Mexico, Canada and a healthy majority of Americans will gladly help pay for it.
– Anon.
It's possible, for the first time, that a state justice can lock up the big bloated orange canary in a gilded cage at the top of Trump Tower in Manhattan. If he can't find the judicial strength to give him jail time, a prolonged period of house arrest and very visible community service in a most humble way would be an acceptable alternative, IMHO.
I would like to see more Democratic Leaders also leaving it all out on the field. It just seems confusing that Joe Biden doesn't have more outspoken cheerleaders from his own party. And when they decide to come in towards the end, notwithstanding their great rhetoric, it appears to many that they are "hired" or doing it "under pressure" or "desperation" not true believers. If they were, why wouldn't they be out there being loud and proud about Pres. Biden all along not just towards the end of the election cycle? And, if nothing else, the troops would love to see that the Dem leadership is working as hard as they are. Clearly there are some exceptions, but the opposite should be true, everyone of them should be outwardly campaigning.
There are quite a few Democrats being loud and proud: Newsom, Shapiro, Fetterman, Pritzker; members of Joe Biden's cabinet, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden himself that I have been hearing throughout social media, and tv, but often the media is favoring trump et.al. I think Jaime Harrison is reaching out through state democrats to shore up support there so we can win all those down ticket races. At some point, the American people themselves should care enough to get informed and I believe that has started kicking in now that kids are out of school. Simon's right to focus on June.
Happy for you that you see the situation this way. I respectfully disagree. I do not think these party representatives are giving the media enough to report on. When you know what the media is looking for, you need to figure it out. To my mind the fact that the race is so close indicates that the message is not getting out. I do not blame the media entirely for this situation.
Dear High Priest of Hopium* – Why don’t pundits think of yesterday’s special election in Ohio as "a high-quality poll of voters in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District"? Isn’t this essentially what the special election was? And with a much higher "response rate" than just about any other poll being conducted these days!
And moreover, doesn’t this latest high-quality Ohio poll seriously call into question all those lower-quality, low-response polls?
.
*) Just to be clear, this is how Politico refers to Simon.
For whatever reason (maybe Simon can explain the why of this), the pundits don’t like to use actual election results as evidence- they’ll all say that special elections are different, they bring out the most engaged voters, can’t extrapolate these results to a general election, etc.
There’s certainly some truth to that (in the same way that primary voters are the most engaged voters), but it’s like 2022 all over again: pundits clinging to polls as THE only story of the election while many other signs (fundraising, voter registration, special elections, early voting enthusiasm) tell a different story.
It's a Jedi mind trick. "No, you aren't winning all those elections. You are really losing them."
Specials aren't predictive, just like polling isn't predictive. But the idea that lots of people voting in an election can't tell you something important about that election is, um, ridiculous.
Every election is unique, sui generis, not like any other election. Every bit of data about this election is vital. Everything tells you something. Dismissing data like our strong performance in the specials, the early vote, fundraising and voter reg as being unimportant is part of how so many ended up with red wave in 2022. We should not be poll centric in our analysis. It matters, but so does a lot of other stuff. You think the Cook Report for example only builds their ratings through polling? They use lots of other inputs to make their assessments, as do I, including more than 30 years in the game and having worked in many of these states.
Get out the AI platform, build an adequately sophisticated neural network on characteristics of the "likely voter" and additional inputs on the state of the world and it may just become possible to accurately predict the turnout and the likely voting behavior of those who end up voting.
I’m just waiting for the WSJ headlines, “Dems dramatically overperform in Ohio’s 6th- why this is bad news for Biden in November.” 🙄
Or the NYT or WaPo.
The most charitable explanation is that because 2020 had 50 million more voters turn out than 2022, (more drop off in specials and odd years) therefore we must assume those 50 million hold dramatically different feelings about politics than those who did vote. I don't know if it holds up to much scrutiny. Equally possible that most of the non voters just didn't know or didn't think their vote would matter.
For me 2022 just looks like the Republicans were able to mobilize 73% of there coalition and we were able to mobilize 63% ours and we basically won. We simply have more voters to draw on and the key seems to be convincing that their vote matters this time.
Josh, where is this data coming from?
We did better in most of the battleground states in 2022 than 2020. Your analysis doesn't explain that.
House Republican vote 2022 (54,506,136) / Trumps 2020 vote ( 74,223,975) = 73%. House Democratic vote 2022 (51,477,313) / Biden 2020 vote (81,283,501) = 63%
Sure it is not a perfect analysis but it serves the basic, that they have to have a higher batting average at turning out their non voters than we do.
No, it doesn't mean that at all, actually. This is completely wrong. Please read my 2022 analysis here - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/still-waiting-for-the-red-wave-a?utm_source=publication-search
I know you've been active here for months and I am little surprised that you haven't come to understand my core analysis about 2022. That there were two elections - a bluer elections inside the battleground, a redder election outside. Your data doesn't explain what happened inside the battlegrounds and how we outperformed our 2020 vote there, and picked up governorships, state legislative chambers, a Senate seat. We did better in 7 battleground states in 2022 than 2020 - AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA.
I see the miscommunication "that they have to have a higher batting average at turning out their non voters (did not vote since 2020) than we do." - If they want to win.
Sorry for not being clear enough there.
The only voters that matter are those that show up and vote. If you don't vote, you forfeit your right to representation. All of the polling and analysis of surrogate markers like special elections add up to vague predictions for a national election still months from now. I'm not sure just how "likely voters" translate to actual voters, but in a country where only 60% of eligible and registered voters show up to the polls in an average election, it seems all methods fall short of accurately predicting the behavior of those who end up casting a vote. Why do the other 40% even bother to register???
Well, first of all, they don't register. The percentage of registered voters who vote our country is actually pretty good--not the best, but not the embarrassment that our overall turnout is.
But according to one recent study, the only countries in the world that put more burden on their citizens in the registration process are Bhutan and the Bahamas. While other democracies are scouring their databases for every possible data or touch point to justify automatically registerimg every citizen, even going door to door at taxpayer expense to register their entire electorate, one of our two political parties not only puts roadblock after roadblock in the path to registration (only for certain voting blocks, of course, not others, see eg how WI's voter ID law is administered), but then engages in scare tactics (like telling young voters they will lose their financial aid if they register to vote where they're going to college) and full-on intimidation (like what happened in South Texas in 2020). All of this is plainly unconstitutional under the second clause of the 14th amendment (to any Justice for whom English isn't a 7th language)--there are even Old Testament-type penalties prescribed for states in violation--but until we decide to do something about it, voter registration will continue to be responsible for the biggest drop off in the torturous path from citizenship to the voting booth. It's a testament to how much more we represent the will and optimism of the people that we win as many elections as we do!
👁️❤️4e📢
How to Spot Propaganda
🔸Lie 🔸Insult opponents 🔸Project weakness on others 🔸Deflect 🔸Distract 🔸Present competing versions of reality 🔸Us vs Them 🔸Confuse, disorient, coerce followers 🔸Create fear 🔸Repeat lies so followers believe
"The Cult of Trump" p16 Hassan
Propaganda--anything said by any gQp
I was listening to Sarah Longwell. She has a lot of great points. Biden should use surrogates out there like Shiparo, Whitmer to talk to and travel around the country. In her townhall Harris gets poor points
PostcardsToVoters.org ran a postcard campaign for Kripchak. That group has a knack for picking interesting races you may not have heard about.
I wrote 100 cards to Ohio 6 as part of the PTV campaign. Right now we’re writing for Trisha Calvarese (D) for Ken Buck’s old seat, special election June 25. Join us! We need new writers ASAP!
How do I get involved in this? I am also fluent in Spanish and could send to Latin voters. Please advise. Thank you 🙏🏼
Thanks for wanting to help!
To volunteer for Postcards To Voters, go to https://postcardstovoters.org/ and follow the prompts under “Sign Up.” The process for approval is quick and efficient.
I also write with ActivateAmerica.vote; I have written in several Spanish language campaigns there, so you might wish to check them out, too. (You can email them to find out when their next Spanish-language campaign starts this summer.)
Another great group for postcarding is FieldTeam6.com (“Register to Vote; Save The World!”).
Hi Laura, I’m curious how ActivateAmerica does their Spanish language campaigns. I write for Center for Common Ground and one critical line (Vote on Nov 5….) will be in Spanish while rest in English.
My surname is Hispanic, and while I haven’t received voter postcards, I occasionally receive mail entirely in Spanish. I mean…how do they determine who speaks Spanish in the household ? Just the name, I guess ?
Thank you for your advice!
I’m still waiting for my cards. Should be here today or tomorrow. 💪💙
Judy, I have been writing postcards for Activate America and have been purchasing stamped postcards from the Post Office since they seem to be the least expensive choice—$.58 each, which includes the postage $.51. Just gather some colored pens at the craft store and get creative! If you send lots, the savings add up! Luckily all the people I have written for so far have won —such a great feeling!
About 4,300 people (plus family and friends) wrote more than 84,000 election reminder postcards to voters in OH 6th district as part of a Postcards to Voters campaign. I was one of them. As in every other Postcards to Voters campaign I've participated in, it was very gratifying to see the impact we've had.
What happened last night in Ohio 6th was remarkable.
Cook Partisan Report rates the district R+16. In 2022, the Republican won by more than 35 points. Trump won the current borders of the district by 29 points in 2020. On top of that, the GOP candidate outspent the Dem candidate by a factor of 76-to-1 ($571,000 to $7,500).
Last night, the Dem candidate hugely overperformed the Cook Partisan rating, the 2022 results, and Trump’s 2020 results. It was an insane overperformance based on the fundamentals.
If Joe Biden is as unpopular with the voters as all the polling says, this result just isn’t possible. If the voters are THAT upset with the incumbent, then results like Ohio 6th don’t happen.
Now, I’m a family law attorney, not a strategist or pollster, but what I see is even if people are dissatisfied with Biden, they still REALLY don’t like MAGA. It’s a binary choice, and voters are showing up to choose the Dems over and over again.
Onward!!
There will be a rematch in the Ohio race in November. This time, Kripchak will have name recognition and a story. I bet he will attract more money, and Republicans are going to be forced to continue to spend money there. That's something that's important about having Dems make a go of it everywhere--A lot of their money is going to Trump's legal fees, and the more they have to spread out what they have left, the better.
I was among the 4000 plus volunteers who wrote postcards for Kripchak, and I have to say that this experience has made me think they really do help turn out Dems. People there are going to start noticing that some of their neighbors are voting blue. I have a friend who is a Republican in a state bordering Ohio who told me that the GOP party chair in her *very red* county told her not to tell anyone, but he thinks they need to see some Democrats win to bring the party back from the brink. I think there may be more people starting to feel this way than we know.
Like Laura, above, I wrote postcards for the Ohio race, and my goal is to double the number I wrote for the Colorado race, in Ken Buck's district which is "only" R+13, and also has the specter of Lauren Boebert running as a Republican in November. I think we are seeing signs that decent people have had it with MAGA, and if prompted and encouraged, even some of the life-long Republicans are ready to pack it in.
"I was among the 4000 plus volunteers who wrote postcards for Kripchak, and I have to say that this experience has made me think they really do help turn out Dems".
Me too. I'm a dedicated postcard writer and also worked in data analytics at a major bank before retiring. I think the "secret sauce" for grassroots postcards is the combination of eye-catching, hand-written postcards, focus-tested messaging, and the high powered analytics used to create the target lists of voters (for GOTV) or prospective voters (for voter registration) who will receive the postcards.
For special elections, a timely reminder about the date of the election (and any early voting periods) can make a huge difference in turnout. In the Tom Suozzi campaign for NY-03, several rounds of postcards went out: (1) to remind people who have voted by mail in the past, to request a mail-in ballot, (2) to remind voters when early voting started, and (3) to remind the remaining voters to vote on election day. Between all those reminders and the GOP tendency to vote on mostly on election day, Suozzi had banked enough votes that the snow storm wasn't a huge deal. Not to mention that encouraging early voting meant that fewer people were in the call lists for phone banking!
For Postcards to Voters campaigns where there are required and optional items to include, I always include the candidate's website and info on where to find the polling locations if it's listed but isn't already a required part of the script. And most recently I started adding a P.S. that was suggested as a generic optional item : "The system works when good voters like you elect good people to office"
If Josh Shapiro ever runs for president I think he’s got my vote.
Wes Moore from Maryland too!
As soon as he got that collapsed bridge repaired in basically a couple weeks, I knew he could have a shot at a national-level career. That whole situation was a master class in communication, leadership, and competence.
Don't forget that was also the intense help from Biden & his secretary of transportation and the Army Corps of Engineers in the Federal government. This was showing that when the Federal and State gov'ts work together, good things can happen. Same thing with the bridge collapse in PA a few months ago. Biden has great people working in the administration. Along with great governors, it's a win-win for the American people.
Our message, on the fingers of one hand:
1. Vote.
2. Vote as early as you can.
3. Vote Democrats for freedom and democracy.
4. Vote Democrats all the way down your ballot.
5. Government will get more done for us if the fight is between Good-Better-Best than if it's between Convicted, Corrupted, and Crazy.
D for the WIN! And can we discuss the re-opening of the Port of Baltimore a mere eleven weeks after the tanker catastrophe that killed six hardworking men? Democratic State, Democratic Governor, Democratic POTUS - the hardworking people of Baltimore can get back to work and feeding their families. Government at its finest. Can you imagine what the fallout would have been if this had happened under felonious punk silver spoon orange baboon? The tragedy would have been politicized and the mangled metal still would be littering the channel. This Ballmer girl is gleeful and full of pride for her city. To quote the colorful Chuck Thompson, the voice of the Orioles, “Ain’t the beer cold!”
I’m not a polling analyst by any measure, but this small FOX poll did make me smile. Also with 69% for Amendment 4.😎
Shock poll? New Fox News survey has Trump over Biden by just 4 points in Florida
⬇️
https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/06/07/shock-poll-new-fox-news-survey-has-trump-over-biden-by-just-4-points-in-florida/
One of my messaging t’s says “I’m Voting Yes on Amendment 4” with the appropriate RGB “collar”.
A man recently stopped me in the grocery store parking lot and said, “Woman are not going to stand for that.They may be silent now, but they will come out and vote.” YES !!!!
👕🛒
Speaking of messaging…Great new Lincoln Project Ad !
What Will You Tell Your Kids ⬇️
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYxOwVe31Lg
Please tell me that the Lincoln Project will broadcast this ad this summer on Fox News, Newsmax, One America News (OAN) and throughout Sinclair Broadcast’s network?
To do so, we would need to send them $$$. (Air time is pricey!) I do know they have been running one of their earlier ads in some swing state markets.
But we can all help the ads go viral organically by sharing with friends and posting on our own social media. If you subscribe to their YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@TheLincolnProject) they will send you an alert when they post new content.
Your analysis is the best out there. The expertise you have is unparalleled, and your positivity is incredible. I am so thankful to have found you through Lawrence O'Donnell's program. Hope he has booked you for many weekly spots through the election, along w/ other msm outlets. Your message in its totality is the single most important one for the BH campaign and D's running throughout the country. So much respect and appreciation for what you are doing.
Agreed!!
I also agree!
It's very refreshing to hear a high-level politician call Trump a whiner. The mockery cuts through the strong-man b.s. and reveals him for what he is. It's effective in an "emperor has no clothes" kind of way.
Josh Marshall made a similar point following the hush money verdict:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-bit-of-trump-trial-campaign-advice
Trump is the biggest whiner in human history--try to name someone famous or who you know who whines more--good luck. Real men don't whine, they take responsibility, they admit mistakes and apologize for them, they don't point fingers, they don't take credit for the work of others, they respect women--in these and so many other ways, Trump is no man at all--and even less of a woman.
Hey Simon,
When we heard the results from Ohio, we immediately thought of you. In fact, Michael wrote this post about it and other "primarily primary news" (https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com/p/the-under-appreciated-news-of-the), and he has consistently written about the reality gap between "the polls" and "the votes" (see https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com/p/the-2024-polling-predicament).
Worst of all for the MAGA right, the Ohio district was in the heart of Appalachia, which is practically as "Trump base" as you can get. That poor result is the product of a severe turnout/support problem, and it is happening in one of the most consequential Senate battlegrounds this election season.
Republicans, for all their talk, are on the run. If they can't make the turnout/vote-getting machine work in an increasingly Republican Ohio, then they will find it difficult to do it anywhere else. Which will eventually present us with the long-term opportunity of winning back Rural America (see posts like Michael's on this; in particular, https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com/p/revisiting-rural-america).
Thanks for the Hopium,
Michael and David Salzillo,
Writers of The Political Pulse of America (https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com) and Salzillo's Two Cents (https://davidsalzillo.substack.com)