Good morning, my hard-working, hope-filled fellows! I'd rather hang out with y'all than work, but I'm going to go donate again to Tom Suozzi because sending the magats to that great slab of carrion in the sky is my raison d'être! But then, back to my job!
Sure wish I was in the DC area to join this event. I just learned that Wiley Nickel is (was) my congressman but was gerrymandered out of his seat and has declined to run because it is now a "safe" R district. For those of us unable to join you, can you please discuss how we can change this? Not sure if a grassroots effort could do it but I am more than willing to help!!! (Will also be donating at your link)
Annette, the same thing happened to me with Rep. Jeff Jackson in NC-14. He is now running for AG, since Josh Stein is running for Governor.
In 2022, I wrote a whole lot of Vote Forward letters for Wiley and Don Davis. These were the two district specific campaigns that Vote Forward (www.votefwd.org) ran in NC in 2022. I have stocked up on First Class postage stamps (before Monday's rate increase) in anticipation of their 2024 campaigns.
Is there any aggressive FBI or local activity to stop the threats to our elected officials and judicial people and their family? This is right out of the Nazi playbook. I think it’s worth a guest speaker on your program.
Significant data point from last night's NH Democratic primary (and thanks to Kyle Griffin from MSNBC for highlighting): President Biden won more votes as a write-in candidate than Barack Obama did when he ran for re-election in the 2012 NH primary. And in 2012, Obama ran unopposed and his name was actually on the ballot! Hard to fathom how the media can turn such a blind eye to the strength of Biden and the Democratic Party's grassroots support.
Yes, just as Haley voters said in Iowa! Also was amused to read in today's NY Times Dean Phillips' statement about his resounding loss: "On Tuesday night, Mr. Phillips congratulated Mr. Biden at his watch party in Manchester, saying that the president 'absolutely won tonight' — but, he added, 'by no means in a way that a strong incumbent president should.'
Or as Democratic rising-star Jasmine Crockett put it in that viral video clip from one of Comer's House hearings -y'all should be really dizzy with all the spinning y'all are doing...
BTW, does it strike anyone else as truly bizzare that clips from C-span are going viral?
As always, the polls/media will overestimate Trump's strength and underestimate ours. And that's just fine. It makes it all the more satisfying when we crush them at the ballot box. We vote, we win!
The media will misrepresent this race as one in which Americans are scratching their heads trying to figure out who to vote for right up until election day. But it’s really about getting out the vote. Obama had haters everywhere in 2012 (I remember all the GOPers promising Civil War if he was re-elected) and Romney was a relatively inoffensive candidate who did not polarize people, but Obama won handily—not by winning over a bunch of new voters but by turning out the vote (knocking on doors, making calls, etc).
No matter what the media pundits are saying about the "horse race", we can be confident that a Biden-Trump rematch is very good for Democrats and a tragedy for what was the GOP.
First, Biden is starting this race with an 81 million to 74 million voter lead over Trump. The click bait media can spin the race and spin the polls however it likes. The key question is which candidate will pick up votes and which will shed votes? Biden with a truly American policy agenda or Trump with a personal revenge agenda and no articulated policies? Biden with four years of solid gains for the American people or Trump with four years of chaos, a tax cut for the wealthy and clownish behavior? I'd sure bet on Biden.
Second, as Simon continues to point out, which candidate has a super energized and growing grassroots movement behind them? Trump surprised the world in 2016 with the fervor of his unrecognized grassroots supporters. But it's looking more and more like that fever has passed, especially among independent voters. Biden's grassroots supporters are just starting to flex their muscle. The 2022/23 interim elections wins are the leading indicator of what the majority of Americans believe. The current Trump/MAGA GOP is on the minority side of so many key issues like gun rights, women's reproductive choices, affordable health care and so on that it will become increasingly clear where the energy driving victory in 2024 is coming from. Us!
Third, if we need an another presidential election as an analog, in which good policies for the American people ran against a narrow minded, mean spirited GOP agenda, consider the 1964: Johnson-Goldwater election. Goldwater ran on restraining the Federal government, cutting New Deal benefits, using American power, including nuclear weapons, to protect the country from innumerable enemies. Johnson ran on an American agenda of expanding voting rights, improving infrastructure and national anti-poverty programs. The result? Johnson won in a 60-40 landslide!
Fourth, Trump’s exactly the wrong kind of candidate to run against an incumbent. The second-term question voters ask themselves is “Should we just continue with this guy or try something new and promising (e.g., Clinton, Reagan)?” Clinton and Reagan beat incumbents by representing something new and promising. As an electoral choice, Trump represents something we tried once and didn’t like. If insanity is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, the GOP has a bad case of it.
👍. Thanks Brian. That's a really good 4th point. I guess we can say Biden has a voter advantage, a policy advantage, a personality advantage and an incombency advantage. Go Joe!
Hi Y'all- In a gerrymandered district in GA there is a special election to replace a R state Rep Barry Flemming. Kay Turner https://kayturnercampaign.com/
is the only Democrat running against 3 R's . Hopefully the R's split the vote and D's show up and she can steal this 34%-64% D/R seat.
If she gets to be in the top two with no one getting 50 % there is a run-off
CJ Pearson- young black MAGA celeb is running as well. It would be nice to defeat him
Thanks for all you do - Best, Bob Herndon Chair Peach Power PAC
I was listening to the coverage of the NH primary on NPR this morning. They interviewed one voter who supported Trump because "things were better 4 years ago". This voter did not sound like a rabid MAGA cult member, but instead they struck me as someone who should be reachable.
What stuck me about this voter's sentiment is that 4 years ago in Jan 2020, Covid was still pretty much confined to "over there" in China and we didn't have a clue what we would be going through in a few short months. That voter didn't actually mention Covid, but I think a lot a people (including me) use Covid as a marker in their lives because things changed so much.
I hold Trump responsible for the botched Covid response and applaud Biden for helping us through it. But I know a lot of people aren't that logical and never think of how much worse it could have been had Trump won in 2020. I'd love to hear your perspective on messaging to address this issue.
I think you need ads that show Trump blathering about how COVID is about to disappear alongside footage from the worst of the pandemic and graphics of the job losses. Make people remember that he left office with the worst jobs record in history.
They can't tell you how things were better....was it better to see that idiot bloviating day after day and lurching from crisis to crisis? Was it better to have him embarrassing us on the world stage ( yeah I know, no one cares about that, but suddenly they care about Gaza, how convenient ) ? And then when his first big test comes, he fails miserably and decides, along with his unqualified son-in-law, scion of a criminal family himself, that since it's mostly in blue states where Covid is raging, let em die. Today I saw a pickup truck here in blue NJ with a trump flag waving, picture of the twin towers, and trump photo with a halo over him, and it said " a hero rises." OMG what has happened here? trump mocks a real hero like McCain and calls D Day casualties losers, and he is a hero? i say this: even if things were better 4 years ago ( and they obviously were not ) and even if we were in the grips of a Great Depression, I would not vote for a fascist. I'd rather starve.
I don’t think you can win someone who has the POV. This is likely someone watching lots of fox and in a social media bubble w/other fox viewers. No one who is outside of this bubble would say this (things were better in the midst of a pandemic?). This whole paradigm - we can only win if we convince brainwashed voters what they believe is wrong - is a trap created by the other side and their enables in the MSM. We need to ignore this and focus our energy on winning the voters available to us. That is how we win. Time for us to get out of the diner.
I hope we can get to 55%. We need to crush MAGA at all levels of government. Those Republicans who are taking the knee for him are so weak. It's like your house is burning down and they still stick with guy who started the fire and now many are running into the burning building.
This quote from the German President commenting recently when massive numbers of Germans showed up to protest against the far right resonated with me. They lived through Hitler. They have not forgotten and kids in Germany are taught about their dark history.
“The future of our democracy does not depend on the volume of its opponents, but on the strength of those who defend democracy,” German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier"
Exactly just as Washington Post’s byline “Democracy Dies in The Dark”. Exactly why Putin’s GQP wants book bands. We can see how propaganda has wrecked Russia as we listen to how the Russians are shocked to find Ukrainian homes in much improved on their’s in Russia I’ve started listening to Prof Timothy Snyder’s “TheRoad2UnFreedom” again. As a septuagenarian I had figured much changed after Reagan when McConnell came 2 the Senate. Prof Snyder confirms I had much more to understand. PBS “Frontline: McConnell, the GOP & the Court” really recommend a view. I’m grateful that David Pepper led me to Simon and this fabulous group as I’m ALL in that this election is vital to Framers’🇺🇸and the future of ALL democracies🌎🌍🌏🗽
Simon, I have a question and do not know who else to ask. Since you know campaigns, can campaign attendees be screened? The disruption in Virginia at what was an excellent full throated speech by Biden is what I saw in the headlines. I know that this is who the media is, but Biden’s words were powerful and well delivered.
Is there a more effective way for the campaign to screen or other methods for dissent to be heard and respected without an event being hijacked
I feel confident we'll keep the presidency and take back the House (with a bigger majority than Nancy Pelosi had). But the Senate worries me. The map is not on our side. What am I missing?
The thing about elections is they're all correlated. You're not flipping a coin 10 times - you're rolling a die and applying the result to every race (adjusted for candidate quality and the base partisan lean of the state or district). That worked against us in 2016, when we were complacent and rolled poorly. But for the Senate, one good roll would be enough to keep it or even expand our majority (Texas, Florida, Missouri. Hahaha, just dreaming - unless...)
And even better, with strategic donations and volunteering we can weight the die in our favor. And even better than that, look at the Republican state parties in Michigan, Florida, and Arizona - they're in complete disarray. All the doomy media coverage has driven them to complacency this time.
Good points, Calvin! I do think we have a shot in Florida--Rick Scott is unpopular, the Dems have a good candidate and abortion is on the ballot. Not feeling as good about Texas--strong D candidate, but Cruz seems to skate, despite being a singularly horrible person.
At times Trump can sound even tempered, rational, entertaining and reasonable. But then he can’t help himself and he reverts to his normal behavior of revenge, vendetta, humiliation, and grievance. Biden represents even handed rational leadership and a calm normalcy that most people appreciate. But I think the difference between the two has to be pounded into the psyche of voters. If the argument that democracy is at stake is going to work Trump’s erratic behavior has to be a centerpiece of the campaign. But the issue is a bit esoteric as opposed to kitchen table economics so it has to be balanced with Biden’s vision and plan for the future. It’s a double jab. People need to see what they’re going to get. It has to be hopeful, inspiring, uplifting, and positive. And now we need to see the president get out there and sell sell sell. We can win this thing but we need to SEE leadership, feel inspiration, and instill fear of Trump.
I'm a monthly donor to the Biden campaign but as suggested will also donate to NC monthly. Small donations each month but every little bit counts. I think there is a good chance that we can turn NC.
I am curious to hear your thoughts on a bit of a conundrum we face here in FL. We’ve been told that we need good and new people to run for office at the local, state, and federal levels so that we can get the state back on the right track. I have a friend who recently stepped up to the plate (Kari Lerner for Florida, FL-19). She will be running for Byron Donalds seat. I’m glad she is running not just because of the larger issues on policy but also so that Donald’s will have to expend some resources this election cycle. So here is something meeting the need on new candidates.
Now we are faced with getting support. Early efforts to reach beyond states lines have yielded no positive response since our area is a “lost cause” and organizations want to target the “critical” areas.
So on one hand, we hear Run for Office We Need You! Then on the other hand, we hear No We Cannot Help You Because Your Area Doesn’t Matter.
Anyways, her campaign is just getting off the ground and I’m hoping we can break through this mindset.
Good morning, my hard-working, hope-filled fellows! I'd rather hang out with y'all than work, but I'm going to go donate again to Tom Suozzi because sending the magats to that great slab of carrion in the sky is my raison d'être! But then, back to my job!
sent him another donation this week. Pulling for Tom!
Sure wish I was in the DC area to join this event. I just learned that Wiley Nickel is (was) my congressman but was gerrymandered out of his seat and has declined to run because it is now a "safe" R district. For those of us unable to join you, can you please discuss how we can change this? Not sure if a grassroots effort could do it but I am more than willing to help!!! (Will also be donating at your link)
Annette, the same thing happened to me with Rep. Jeff Jackson in NC-14. He is now running for AG, since Josh Stein is running for Governor.
In 2022, I wrote a whole lot of Vote Forward letters for Wiley and Don Davis. These were the two district specific campaigns that Vote Forward (www.votefwd.org) ran in NC in 2022. I have stocked up on First Class postage stamps (before Monday's rate increase) in anticipation of their 2024 campaigns.
By "their", I mean Vote Forward. I will definitely be writing for any NC campaigns plus do any related to the House races we are trying to flip.
Is there any aggressive FBI or local activity to stop the threats to our elected officials and judicial people and their family? This is right out of the Nazi playbook. I think it’s worth a guest speaker on your program.
Significant data point from last night's NH Democratic primary (and thanks to Kyle Griffin from MSNBC for highlighting): President Biden won more votes as a write-in candidate than Barack Obama did when he ran for re-election in the 2012 NH primary. And in 2012, Obama ran unopposed and his name was actually on the ballot! Hard to fathom how the media can turn such a blind eye to the strength of Biden and the Democratic Party's grassroots support.
Very good point! Especially since the polling showed that a large chunk of Haley supporters said that they'd vote for Biden in a Biden-Trump match-up.
Yes, just as Haley voters said in Iowa! Also was amused to read in today's NY Times Dean Phillips' statement about his resounding loss: "On Tuesday night, Mr. Phillips congratulated Mr. Biden at his watch party in Manchester, saying that the president 'absolutely won tonight' — but, he added, 'by no means in a way that a strong incumbent president should.'
To Mr. Phillips AND to the Times, I call BS.
Or as Democratic rising-star Jasmine Crockett put it in that viral video clip from one of Comer's House hearings -y'all should be really dizzy with all the spinning y'all are doing...
BTW, does it strike anyone else as truly bizzare that clips from C-span are going viral?
As always, the polls/media will overestimate Trump's strength and underestimate ours. And that's just fine. It makes it all the more satisfying when we crush them at the ballot box. We vote, we win!
The media will misrepresent this race as one in which Americans are scratching their heads trying to figure out who to vote for right up until election day. But it’s really about getting out the vote. Obama had haters everywhere in 2012 (I remember all the GOPers promising Civil War if he was re-elected) and Romney was a relatively inoffensive candidate who did not polarize people, but Obama won handily—not by winning over a bunch of new voters but by turning out the vote (knocking on doors, making calls, etc).
No matter what the media pundits are saying about the "horse race", we can be confident that a Biden-Trump rematch is very good for Democrats and a tragedy for what was the GOP.
First, Biden is starting this race with an 81 million to 74 million voter lead over Trump. The click bait media can spin the race and spin the polls however it likes. The key question is which candidate will pick up votes and which will shed votes? Biden with a truly American policy agenda or Trump with a personal revenge agenda and no articulated policies? Biden with four years of solid gains for the American people or Trump with four years of chaos, a tax cut for the wealthy and clownish behavior? I'd sure bet on Biden.
Second, as Simon continues to point out, which candidate has a super energized and growing grassroots movement behind them? Trump surprised the world in 2016 with the fervor of his unrecognized grassroots supporters. But it's looking more and more like that fever has passed, especially among independent voters. Biden's grassroots supporters are just starting to flex their muscle. The 2022/23 interim elections wins are the leading indicator of what the majority of Americans believe. The current Trump/MAGA GOP is on the minority side of so many key issues like gun rights, women's reproductive choices, affordable health care and so on that it will become increasingly clear where the energy driving victory in 2024 is coming from. Us!
Third, if we need an another presidential election as an analog, in which good policies for the American people ran against a narrow minded, mean spirited GOP agenda, consider the 1964: Johnson-Goldwater election. Goldwater ran on restraining the Federal government, cutting New Deal benefits, using American power, including nuclear weapons, to protect the country from innumerable enemies. Johnson ran on an American agenda of expanding voting rights, improving infrastructure and national anti-poverty programs. The result? Johnson won in a 60-40 landslide!
Fourth, Trump’s exactly the wrong kind of candidate to run against an incumbent. The second-term question voters ask themselves is “Should we just continue with this guy or try something new and promising (e.g., Clinton, Reagan)?” Clinton and Reagan beat incumbents by representing something new and promising. As an electoral choice, Trump represents something we tried once and didn’t like. If insanity is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, the GOP has a bad case of it.
👍. Thanks Brian. That's a really good 4th point. I guess we can say Biden has a voter advantage, a policy advantage, a personality advantage and an incombency advantage. Go Joe!
Hi Y'all- In a gerrymandered district in GA there is a special election to replace a R state Rep Barry Flemming. Kay Turner https://kayturnercampaign.com/
is the only Democrat running against 3 R's . Hopefully the R's split the vote and D's show up and she can steal this 34%-64% D/R seat.
If she gets to be in the top two with no one getting 50 % there is a run-off
CJ Pearson- young black MAGA celeb is running as well. It would be nice to defeat him
Thanks for all you do - Best, Bob Herndon Chair Peach Power PAC
https://peachpowerpac.com/
I was listening to the coverage of the NH primary on NPR this morning. They interviewed one voter who supported Trump because "things were better 4 years ago". This voter did not sound like a rabid MAGA cult member, but instead they struck me as someone who should be reachable.
What stuck me about this voter's sentiment is that 4 years ago in Jan 2020, Covid was still pretty much confined to "over there" in China and we didn't have a clue what we would be going through in a few short months. That voter didn't actually mention Covid, but I think a lot a people (including me) use Covid as a marker in their lives because things changed so much.
I hold Trump responsible for the botched Covid response and applaud Biden for helping us through it. But I know a lot of people aren't that logical and never think of how much worse it could have been had Trump won in 2020. I'd love to hear your perspective on messaging to address this issue.
I think you need ads that show Trump blathering about how COVID is about to disappear alongside footage from the worst of the pandemic and graphics of the job losses. Make people remember that he left office with the worst jobs record in history.
They can't tell you how things were better....was it better to see that idiot bloviating day after day and lurching from crisis to crisis? Was it better to have him embarrassing us on the world stage ( yeah I know, no one cares about that, but suddenly they care about Gaza, how convenient ) ? And then when his first big test comes, he fails miserably and decides, along with his unqualified son-in-law, scion of a criminal family himself, that since it's mostly in blue states where Covid is raging, let em die. Today I saw a pickup truck here in blue NJ with a trump flag waving, picture of the twin towers, and trump photo with a halo over him, and it said " a hero rises." OMG what has happened here? trump mocks a real hero like McCain and calls D Day casualties losers, and he is a hero? i say this: even if things were better 4 years ago ( and they obviously were not ) and even if we were in the grips of a Great Depression, I would not vote for a fascist. I'd rather starve.
I don’t think you can win someone who has the POV. This is likely someone watching lots of fox and in a social media bubble w/other fox viewers. No one who is outside of this bubble would say this (things were better in the midst of a pandemic?). This whole paradigm - we can only win if we convince brainwashed voters what they believe is wrong - is a trap created by the other side and their enables in the MSM. We need to ignore this and focus our energy on winning the voters available to us. That is how we win. Time for us to get out of the diner.
I hope we can get to 55%. We need to crush MAGA at all levels of government. Those Republicans who are taking the knee for him are so weak. It's like your house is burning down and they still stick with guy who started the fire and now many are running into the burning building.
This quote from the German President commenting recently when massive numbers of Germans showed up to protest against the far right resonated with me. They lived through Hitler. They have not forgotten and kids in Germany are taught about their dark history.
“The future of our democracy does not depend on the volume of its opponents, but on the strength of those who defend democracy,” German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier"
Well, not that many left who remember Hitler, but what the Allies did was something we may need to do here somehow; Denazification.
Exactly just as Washington Post’s byline “Democracy Dies in The Dark”. Exactly why Putin’s GQP wants book bands. We can see how propaganda has wrecked Russia as we listen to how the Russians are shocked to find Ukrainian homes in much improved on their’s in Russia I’ve started listening to Prof Timothy Snyder’s “TheRoad2UnFreedom” again. As a septuagenarian I had figured much changed after Reagan when McConnell came 2 the Senate. Prof Snyder confirms I had much more to understand. PBS “Frontline: McConnell, the GOP & the Court” really recommend a view. I’m grateful that David Pepper led me to Simon and this fabulous group as I’m ALL in that this election is vital to Framers’🇺🇸and the future of ALL democracies🌎🌍🌏🗽
Simon, I have a question and do not know who else to ask. Since you know campaigns, can campaign attendees be screened? The disruption in Virginia at what was an excellent full throated speech by Biden is what I saw in the headlines. I know that this is who the media is, but Biden’s words were powerful and well delivered.
Is there a more effective way for the campaign to screen or other methods for dissent to be heard and respected without an event being hijacked
I feel confident we'll keep the presidency and take back the House (with a bigger majority than Nancy Pelosi had). But the Senate worries me. The map is not on our side. What am I missing?
The thing about elections is they're all correlated. You're not flipping a coin 10 times - you're rolling a die and applying the result to every race (adjusted for candidate quality and the base partisan lean of the state or district). That worked against us in 2016, when we were complacent and rolled poorly. But for the Senate, one good roll would be enough to keep it or even expand our majority (Texas, Florida, Missouri. Hahaha, just dreaming - unless...)
And even better, with strategic donations and volunteering we can weight the die in our favor. And even better than that, look at the Republican state parties in Michigan, Florida, and Arizona - they're in complete disarray. All the doomy media coverage has driven them to complacency this time.
Good points, Calvin! I do think we have a shot in Florida--Rick Scott is unpopular, the Dems have a good candidate and abortion is on the ballot. Not feeling as good about Texas--strong D candidate, but Cruz seems to skate, despite being a singularly horrible person.
Funny, I feel better about Texas than Florida. Texas has been moving left, and Cruz only won 6 years ago by 2 or 3 points.
At times Trump can sound even tempered, rational, entertaining and reasonable. But then he can’t help himself and he reverts to his normal behavior of revenge, vendetta, humiliation, and grievance. Biden represents even handed rational leadership and a calm normalcy that most people appreciate. But I think the difference between the two has to be pounded into the psyche of voters. If the argument that democracy is at stake is going to work Trump’s erratic behavior has to be a centerpiece of the campaign. But the issue is a bit esoteric as opposed to kitchen table economics so it has to be balanced with Biden’s vision and plan for the future. It’s a double jab. People need to see what they’re going to get. It has to be hopeful, inspiring, uplifting, and positive. And now we need to see the president get out there and sell sell sell. We can win this thing but we need to SEE leadership, feel inspiration, and instill fear of Trump.
Really amazingly encouraging article. Thank you.
I'm a monthly donor to the Biden campaign but as suggested will also donate to NC monthly. Small donations each month but every little bit counts. I think there is a good chance that we can turn NC.
Wouldn't that be great?
Donated to Joe and to Tom. Let's Go!
I am curious to hear your thoughts on a bit of a conundrum we face here in FL. We’ve been told that we need good and new people to run for office at the local, state, and federal levels so that we can get the state back on the right track. I have a friend who recently stepped up to the plate (Kari Lerner for Florida, FL-19). She will be running for Byron Donalds seat. I’m glad she is running not just because of the larger issues on policy but also so that Donald’s will have to expend some resources this election cycle. So here is something meeting the need on new candidates.
Now we are faced with getting support. Early efforts to reach beyond states lines have yielded no positive response since our area is a “lost cause” and organizations want to target the “critical” areas.
So on one hand, we hear Run for Office We Need You! Then on the other hand, we hear No We Cannot Help You Because Your Area Doesn’t Matter.
Anyways, her campaign is just getting off the ground and I’m hoping we can break through this mindset.
Share donation, other links! I would be happy to help. Thanks for flagging - I am not giving up on the Sunshine state :)
Thank you! https://www.karilernerforflorida.com/