Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
"It's The American People Who Are The Heroes Of This Story"
Our Monday roundup. Welcome new subscribers!
Happy Monday all! As summer winds down, a reminder that Joe Biden and the Democrats are having a very good summer - big Ohio win (adding to our important 2023 wins), inflation down, economy strong, progress on the border and murder rates across the US, great new Biden ads. It’s been a summer of progress.
Republicans, on the other hand, have Trump, and MAGA, and DeSantis, and Vivek, RFK , climate denialism, gun and abortion extremism, fealty to Putin, and lots and lots of indictments.
Perhaps the most significant political development of the summer has been the establishment by Federal and state prosecutors that the conspiracy to overturn an American election and American democracy was a Republican party-wide effort, potentially involving hundreds of prominent Republicans across the country. The indictments, prosecutions, and trials of these treasonous Republicans could last for many years, as the Watergate trials did. As they should.
Yes, it has been a good summer for Democrats and the pro-democracy movement more broadly, but heads down now for the work we have to do in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, in getting loud about and selling Biden’s accomplishments, registering young people across the US and all the other work you are choosing to do for your country.
A reminder I am mostly off this week, and again trying out a new “Monday Roundup” format….
2023 Election and Polling Analysis - I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them
The Economy is Strong, Inflation is Down, There Is No Recession On The Horizon And America Is A Global Leader on Climate Once Again
Biden Campaign Comms and Ads - Off To A Very Strong Start
Biden’s Strong Launch, Day 2 (more really good ads)
Getting to 55 and The Importance of The Youth Vote
Interview with Harvard’s John Della Volpe on The Youth Vote
Interview with the Civics Center Laura Brill and Expanding Youth Voter Registration
Our Democratic Grassroots Is Stronger Than It’s Even Been/Becoming An Info Warrior for Democracy/Getting Louder/The Democratic Party Is Strong
Sharing Your Work With Others in The Hopium Community (New, Fun and Inspiring)
Republicans Are Saddled With Trump, MAGA, Dobbs and Treason
Hopium Chronicles Basics
What I Mean By Hopium (Audio)
With Democrats Things Get Better - August, 2023
Recent Pods and Press
Deep State Radio w/David Rothkopf and Dahlia Lithwich - The Georgia Indictments
Politics War Room with James Carville and Al Hunt - Building a Democratic Majority
In a new Washington Post column, Who’s Leading the Fight Against MAGA? Women, Jennifer Rubin writes:
As Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg explained, “We saw a huge spike in women registering to vote after Dobbs, and we saw Democrats outperform our 2020 numbers by 7 points in 5 House special elections and even more in Kansas. There was an immediate, positive spike in Dem performance for us after Dobbs.” The impact of female voters and reproductive rights more generally is now widely seen as a substantial factor in Democrats’ better-than-expected midterm results.
Here’s how Ron Brownstein of CNN and The Atlantic wrote about this moment and our emerging opportunity:
Simon Rosenberg, the long-time Democratic strategist who was proven right as the most prominent public skeptic of the “red wave” theory in 2022, argues that Trump, in particular, is unlikely to match his 47% of the vote from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again. “We are starting at a place where it is far more likely in my mind that he gets to 45% than he gets to 49%,” Rosenberg said. “And if he gets to 45%, we have the opportunity to get up to 55%. The key for Democrats is we have to imagine growing and expanding our coalition for it to happen.”
Beyond the personal doubts about Trump among voters outside the GOP coalition, Democrats such as Rosenberg and Anzalone see several other factors that give Biden a chance to widen his winning margin from the last election. Perhaps the most important of those are the slowdown in inflation, continued strength of the job market, and signs of accelerating recovery in the stock market – all of which are already stirring some gains in consumer confidence. Democrats are encouraged as well by recent declines in the number of undocumented immigrants attempting to cross the Southern border and the crime rate in big cities – two issues on which polls show substantial disappointment in Biden’s performance.
Another change since 2020 is the broad public backlash, especially in Democratic-leaning and swing states, against the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending the constitutional right to abortion, which Trump has directly claimed credit for engineering through his nominations to the court. Finally, compared to 2020, the electorate in 2024 will likely include significantly more young people in Generation Z, a group that is preponderantly supporting Democrats, and fewer Whites without a college degree, now the GOP’s best group.
All of these factors, Rosenberg said, create “an opportunity” for Democrats to amass a bigger majority next year than most consider possible. But to get there, he argues, the party will need to think bigger, particularly in its efforts to mobilize younger voters aging into the electorate. “It’s a man on the moon kind of mindset,” Rosenberg said. “We have to want to go there to get there. We have to build a strategy to take away political real estate from the Republicans because they are giving us the opportunity to take it away from them.”
Many Republican strategists privately agree that the combined effect of the January 6 insurrection and the court’s abortion decision will make it difficult for Trump to expand his support from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again.
Keep working hard all - Simon