71 Comments
User's avatar
WiseAssumer in Las Cruces's avatar

"War of attrition" is right, that's where Trump put us. Our Revolution was a war of attrition--as long as we didn't lose, we would win.

The home team usually wins wars of attrition. Hegseth and Trump don't know this lesson of history, of course, but they are learning.

KBH's avatar

Or not learning.

Claire Silberman's avatar

I'm curious why Congressional Dems aren't taking advantage of the fossil fuel energy shocks to message about Trump's decision to destroy the renewables sector (and why outlets like MS NOW aren't talking about the environmental damage he's wreaking). Simon, do you have any thoughts about this? I imagine Capitol Hill could use some guidance here-- thanks!!

Cindy May's avatar

Clean energy policy might be more of a peace time priority. There's some comfort that it's cheaper to install renewable energy than to build fossil fuel generators. Economics are in favor of the environment to some degree.

Anne Fitzpatrick's avatar

When I call my members of Congress, I tell them to forget about restoring the fossil fuel industry and use this opportunity that Trump has created for us to leap-frog to a renewable energy economy. Congress (and/or maybe only Democrats) has been restoring funding and ignoring the Big Beautiful Bill (at least that's what I read somewhere - don't remember where - perhaps on Hopium(?)). The other thing I read (perhaps it was Paul Krugman - sorry, I can't remember where) is that it can be thought of as a national security issue - we are dependent on oil now - but renewables can't be controlled by autocrats. Sunlight and wind are available to everyone.

Fund the Build Back Better bills and Inflation Reduction Act which supported renewables.

Nancy Perry's avatar

What about California governors race? Looks bad for Democrats so far!! HELP!

Cynthia Erb's avatar

I imagine Simon will discuss this Wednesday. I saw a recent poll on Threads that had Hilton in first place, Becerra and Steyer tied for second, then Bianca in fourth. I’m no expert but if this holds it suggests Trump goofed in endorsing Hilton. With debates coming up I would imagine this will get sorted. I’m not in CA though.

Simon Rosenberg's avatar

Why is it bad for Democrats? And please, we don't do panic here.....

Michael G Baer's avatar

California has a huge vote by mail program and ballots begin to go out May 4. There is a candidate forum for all candidates polling 5% or higher this Wednesday aka Earth Day (Becerra, Steyer, Porter, Mahan, and the 2 GOPs).

I saw a poll post-Swalwell, sorry I don't remember who, but it was a well known legitimate pollster that said there was an 87% chance it would be a Dem and a GOP in the finals (most likely Steyer and Hilton) an 8.5% chance it would be the 2 GOPs and a 5.5% chance it would be 2 Dems (most likely Steyer and Porter)

23% are undecided, and I suspect they break approximately 60-40% Dem like the state in general or possibly even more so because there are more choices on our side, which means the blue candidates should rise once those undecideds decide. I imagine most GOP voters are locked in one way or another already. Hopefully some of the lower candidates will drop out to help the blue team further. The outcome is not a sure bet, but no time to panic.

A poll is just a poll until we go to the polls, but maybe that will provide you some small comfort, Nancy.

ChrisD's avatar

In the 2020 election, Biden beat Trump by 63% to 34% in California. That 29% thrashing is more likely to be the margin in the governor's election this November.

Michael G Baer's avatar

Agreed, provided the jungle primary doesn't bite us in the butt, which remains possible but unlikely...

Jarrod Emerson's avatar

Yeah, there's always a possibility - but.... I assume the big guns (DNC, DGA etc) will step in at some point to st least make it even less likely lol. I mean I don't wanna downplay how much it would suck to have two Republicans on the ballot for Governor - but on the other hand, I'm pretty sure the legislature would remain democratic so hopefully there would be limit to a hypothetical GOP governor's fuckery? Again I shouldn't be going there - but sometimes I can't help myself...

Jarrod Emerson's avatar

I think that's a bit of an overreaction Nancy - Swalwell getting out has helped, and as mentioned Trump endorsing Hilton may have helped consolidate Republican support on that side. My guess is as we inch closer to the actual primary a few more Democrats will drop out - as the pressure on them ramps up to do so. Like Michael said, polls aren't votes so try not to let them stress you out. Also, I would try not to let the scare articles get to you. Journalists and content creators alike need pieces to get clicks! Remember they thrive on people being "frightened" into clicking on their pages.

Betsy's avatar

Becerra has climbed up into 2nd place in the polls today tied with Steyer @15% and Yee has dropped out, so the situation is very fluid. I don't think you need to panic. Californian Democrats know their assignment. We've got this.

Jarrod Emerson's avatar

Thank god Yee dropped out - I mean no disrespect to her - but it was pretty clear she was not gonna break out of the < 5% club.

Catherine Giovannoni's avatar

Simon, thanks for the great update.

Tim Walz and Chris Murphy were recently in Spain at a "liberal internationale" conference, something I remember you calling for some time ago. Both of their speeches were quite good and are available on YouTube. The underlying premise is that progressive groups must work internationally to fight fascism and build a better world.

I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to say that the president is not in touch with reality (see, e.g., this weekend's post-a-palooza on social media) and must leave or be removed from office.

Faith Wilson's avatar

The idea of a world progressive group is fantastic! Chris Murphy was one of the speakers in Barcelona, along with other world leaders to call out strongman populism for the sham that it is. This kind of global alliance is crucial to help prevent another trump not just here in the US but globally.

https://www.aol.com/news/murphy-tells-us-world-progressives-215850038.html

Lisa Iannucci's avatar

Making my list of things to mention to Sens. Booker & Kim in today's calls - basically calling for hearings on the war (of attrition) and the resulting effects on the economy. This is not Vietnam, which divided the working class from the college student protestors. We're ALL getting hammered (well, not literally. THAT behavior is restricted to our wonderful FBI director.)

Also called Rep. Chris Smith (Traitor-NJ04) yesterday, and demanded that he speak out about Orange's mental unfitness. That fool (Smith) think's he's unbeatable. He better take a look around.

Keep going!

kitkatmia's avatar

i sense that all the big time global financial leaders and countries are freaking out about his war. and until our msm stops just reporting the madman's tweets and not the real, serious, in depth news, the world will continue to suffer. there is no easy way out of this as simon says. so the msm bullhorn & spotlight would really help end it expeditiously rather than tip toeing around this colossal fool who has wrought such damage. first step: dont report his tweets anymore.

Michael G Baer's avatar

100% !

Small cracks can become big cracks in corporate media dereliction of duty too.

BeeBeeinNYC's avatar

Just - for a minute - just forget everything you know about the state of affairs of your country and your government.

And, you click on a very brief teaser of a daily political opinion show, and this is what you hear:

https://davidpakman.substack.com/p/preview-the-week-from-hell-is-only?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

And, you know, it's just Monday.... that's all.

KBH's avatar

Calls to Sens Hagerty and Blackburn (hold nose) today and to Rep. Burchett (hold other nostril closed) to say: 1) vote to remove war powers (we're getting close to the 60 days, after which Trump has to say SOMETHING to Congress about what the hell he's doing in Iran); 2) no reconciliation bill to fund ICE/CBP for TEN YEARS or even for one without reforms; 3) no SAVE Act--through reconciliation bill amendment or otherwise. I usually get voicemail--but so much to say before the time runs out!

PianoManSteve's avatar

“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

——Nelson Mandella

Friends, I have no fucking idea how we are going to contain, and eventually get rid of this guy… And once we do, I have even less of an idea the full scope of the catastrophic mess and impossibly deep hole we will find ourselves in, let alone how we will clean it up and climb out.

But I do know this… We WILL because we MUST. And when you MUST….you CAN. We just have to keep solving one problem at a time… It gives me a lot of comfort to know I’m not in this alone.

Love to you all.

❤️🇺🇸

Susanna J. Sturgis's avatar

Same here. We've been digging this hole at least since Reagan, and this is what it's taken to wake us (some of us anyway) the hell up. And the temptation will be great to go back to same old same-old (Reagan? Bush I? Clinton? Bush II?) because in hindsight it looks a lot better than this -- at least to white people.

Michael G Baer's avatar

There is no going back to what was before, although there will be temptation. To quote Steve, We WILL because we MUST and when we MUST, we CAN.

We MUST fight for consequences for the perps, once the Mad King is off the stage.

kitkatmia's avatar

since satan has spent billions like a drunken sailor, when the dems get back in, the repubs will say not a penny more for anything, we're broke, with huge debt payments. that's what they always do. the dems will get the bill from this nightmare admin. oh, except for the military. all we will hear about is our trillions in debt and interest payments. they just dont want to ever help regular working class americans.

Michael G Baer's avatar

Of course, the same old story.

But if the blue team chairs all the committees in both houses and the Senate can block appointments with advise and consent, and we show that fantastic chart Simon has of job growth under blue or red administrations going back to Reagan, we might convince the public that only one of the two major parties actually knows how to govern...

PianoManSteve's avatar

The only thing I would gently push back on at least as it pertains to economics… The people in our family who continue to insist that Bill Clinton was the same as the Republicans, are not really doing proper justice to history. Now he made some compromises that I wish he hadn’t… Like the Glass Stegal act probably should’ve stayed in place, and from where we are sitting right now don’t ask don’t tell was terrible… But in the context that he was governing in, he had to make some pretty damn hard choices to stop worse things from happening. For example, the defense of marriage act philosophically is a complete piece of shit… But, a agreeing to sign that into federal law was also a preventative measure from the Republicans, forcing a constitutional amendment vote, and we had so many southern Democrats still in place at the time Who were very socially conservative, that I’m not sure it wouldn’t have gotten the veto proof majorities that needed to send out to the states for ratification… And it’s a hell of a lot easier to overturn a federal law than it is to undo a bad constitutional amendment. Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy, something neither Obama nor Joe Biden were able to get done, he raised the minimum wage, something that has been stagnant forever since then, he tried to pass universal healthcare, and his own party wouldn’t agree to let him do it through budget reconciliation so we got Claude on that one. And the welfare reform Bill was a terrible piece of shit, but it was nothing compared to what Newt Gingrich would have written himself, and then Clinton used his leverage in the second half of his presidency to try to improve what was bad about the first bill that he had to sign. So, his presidency wasn’t perfect, but there’s an awful lot of people in the Democratic family who are super critical of his economic policy, who are not being particularly honest about the good things that he did, nor the challenges that he was working under with a Gingrich lead Congress in both chambers… He really did a lot to turn the ship in a better direction so that Obama could be more progressive than he was, and Joe Biden was more progressive than either of them because he was standing on their shoulders… It’s just very unfortunate that the things that Joe Biden did, as big as they were, didn’t take affect fast enough for the American people to really feel it. There are many things about Clinton that should not be defended, but I will always defend his economic record, not as perfect, but as far better than the rap he gets from progressive in our own party and coalition who either don’t remember a lot of things, or are applying philosophies in a vacuum without any context for the environment in which he had to govern.

Michael G Baer's avatar

Your storyline is how I remember it, and irs great to get your perspective on it. That's a fine look back

One more thing about Clinton: ONLY PRESIDENT TO OPERATE WITH A BUDGET SURPLUS IN ALL OUR LIFETIMES!!!

If i recall it was the last TWO years of his 8 in office..and he wired all the classrooms for the 21st century.

Michael G Baer's avatar

Correction: LBJ balanced the budget in 1969. He too was a Democrat.

Susanna J. Sturgis's avatar

What's this obsession with "balanced budgets"??? What does it mean in real-life terms? Who is it meant to impress? What does it cost those of us who work for a living?

PianoManSteve's avatar

Well, that in my view is a very complex situation. It also matters how badly out of balance the budget is. We are facing an inflationary crisis because in part we’ve been running ridiculously high deficits for so long that our debt to GDP is over 100% or something near it. Which then means it’s more expensive to borrow money. Our economy has benefited for years from low interest rates, and it’s gonna be a long time before we can really have meaningful interest rate reductions, and it also becomes very, very difficult to make sizable investments in the American people when the largest line item in the budget is paying interest against the national debt. Clinton came in at a time of very high interest rates, and the first budget. Bill was painful that he passed with other Democrats because he had to break some campaign promises, and cut spending and raise taxes both… But, the pay off at that time anyway, Was that when we reduced the budget deficit, we got an interest rate cut from the fed, and then the bond markets responded… And as it got less expensive to borrow money, businesses started to borrow money and inject new capital into the economy, which was the beginning of the big economic expansion we had during the 90s. I believe Clinton would have made a lot of big investments in society had he not lost the Congress, but because of the 94 slaughter, he had to make a lot of concessions to the Republicans in order to get some smaller investments through Around the edges. It was a really difficult situation to govern in. We have not gotten much in exchange for these ridiculous deficits that Republicans have been running… It’s all been the result of irresponsible wars, and unmanageable unsustainable tax cuts for the wealthiest. At least, if it had been the result of Big, investments and healthcare,, education, infrastructure, clean, energy, etc., we would have things that we’re bringing economic growth back to us at a far greater rate than what we had to spend to create it. But, we are in a very fiscally unsustainable situation with the rest of the world because of how much of our debt they own… And at any moment, Europe, or China, or Japan could create a serious economic problem for us by running a fire sale on our treasuries that they have invested in. It would create some problems for them too, but it’s a very precarious situation… So that that’s the only reason why balance budgets might matter. I don’t really care about balanced budgets as much as I care about having the national debt in a reasonable ratio with GDP, and if we’re going to run a deficit, do it because we are making investments that will drive economic growth, and create Quality of life measures and new jobs for years to come… Don’t just give $100,000 more back to somebody who won’t even notice it… The tax cuts are a damn rounding error for people like Jeff Bezos. Chelle… At least in my opinion, and my opinion is worth probably the same amount as a cup of coffee at your local Starbucks, Balance budget in none of themselves mean nothing, but reasonable debt to income ratios are important if we’re going to maintain our commitments and investments that do actually matter to working people, and what is driving the debt we do carry matters a hell of a lot more… And since 1981, We’ve mostly accumulated a lot of debt for absolutely no benefit

Susanna J. Sturgis's avatar

Right, and this helps explain why "balanced budget" is a lousy talking point, not least because it's usually invoked by the right/white/affluent wing.

And as to "maintain[ing] our commitments" -- how's that going for you all?

Susanna J. Sturgis's avatar

I mostly agree, but at the same time -- the good stuff Clinton did was toward the beginning of his tenure, while Glass-Steagall was toward the end. In between was the crap against "welfare queens," etc. So I tend to believe he started off OK but was headed in the wrong direction.

Laura Camp's avatar

To be clear, Trump is dismantling all research and relocating the offices of NSF to Utah.

Bison Doc's avatar

Such madness hardly even makes headlines these days. There will be lots of "building back better" once we get beyond this sad, corrupt unnatural disaster.

Ann Dixon's avatar

Alt National Park Service has mobilized its supporters to lobby companies that are in the outdoor recreation business and rely on public lands. There is a HUGE number of companies stepping up.

karenwestcoast's avatar

(I think Kushkof might be a better mash up, it rings Russian.) This week, I signed up for an in person Ossoff fundraiser and for poll worker training re: June 2 election in CA. Last time I worked the polls many came to the wrong polling place, they simply voted via provisional. Hope it stays that drama free. My gut says Dems. will be out in force; Reps. won’t bother. Reps. are still tuned out.

Susanna J. Sturgis's avatar

Who woulda thought we'd be celebrating the 250th anniversary of overthrowing a mad king while living under a mad president?

Patrick's avatar

Thanks for the update. I have 15 postcards I completed over the weekend to get in the mail today. Next week, work trip (to Hawaii!!) and I'm not bringing along postcards and markers. I don't know what airfare is like these days, but I got my flights well before the war started.

Kevin Hassett will literally say any BS. I call him the "Hassett Hound" because he will follow orders like a good boy, all with that ridiculous grin on his face. It isn't the first time he has been on TV spouting absolute nonsense, usually to friendly interviewers who barely challenge any of it. He's like Bagdad Bob but with economics.

What I hope happens is that after all this is done (whatever that turns out to mean) it will convince more people that we need to broadly transform our energy economy away from fossil fuels. We need a fleet of electric vehicles, renewable generation, and a smart electrical grid. This will create more jobs than investing in AI data centers, and have a larger impact on society than AI.

My feeling about AI is that real advancement will come with algorithmic improvements rather than massive data center investments. I think by allowing money to be centralized in a very few hands, along with the tax cuts, is that we are over investing in AI, and as a result not more broadly investing across different areas of the economy.

Emily H's avatar

I’m laying low today, but tomorrow I will be at the county admin bldg for the usual Cty Bd of Sups meeting, where I will enquire about poll watching. I think my county is now 100% vote by mail, and I certainly vote early and from the safety of my armchair, but I think there are still in-person jobs to be done. CA primary ballots are due by June 2.

Rachel Poliner's avatar

In case you're looking for more ways to be involved this week online (after VA support ends)...

Stand Up for Science has an Earth Day zoom on Wednesday at 8 eastern: https://www.standupforscience.net/sufs-earth-day-2026

The DNC and Swing Left are hosting a zoom on Thursday at 8 eastern about the DNC collaborating better with grassroots groups. I'm eager for that one. More info here: https://grassrootsconnector.substack.com/p/working-with-the-dnc

For those who want to help from afar on the Citizens Bank effort (convincing them to stop financing the building and operating of ICE warehouse prisons), they've got online actions (https://www.de-icecitizensbank.org/toolkit) leading up to a protest outside the annual shareholders meeting in Providence RI on Thursday and protests at most branches on Saturday.