It's Time For The Magical Thinking About The Costs Of Trump's Failed War To End

Election Day is Tomorrow In Virginia - One More Phonebank Tonight at 530pm - Let's Close Strong Everyone!

Greetings all. The political discourse in the US, driven by the Trump regime’s endless lying and gaslighting, continues to struggle to capture the extraordinary damage that Trump’s failed war has done to the world, and to America. Our Congress still has not held hearings on the war, or its challenging aftermath; rather this week the hollow men leading the Republican Party are focused on finding a way to fund DHS and reauthorizing FISA without making any structural reforms to either. It’s a confirmation that bodies can keep twitching after the host - or in this case, MAGA - dies.

Trump has lead America and the world into a grave, historic crisis, one which given our leader’s madness, no longer has an easy resolution - as we’ve seen in the news this morning. Iran isn’t even participating in the talks Trump announced, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, because our military do not honor the cease fire, blocking Iranian ports and now seizing an Iranian cargo ship:

Every day the crisis drags on the damage to the world and our economy gets worse. Here’s an excerpt from a front page NYT article today, “The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World” (gift link):

When the war in Iran started on Feb. 28, Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected.

Many countries across the Asia-Pacific are experiencing sudden jolts of disruption that they are struggling to manage, with some comparing the crisis’s breakdowns and scope to the Covid pandemic.

Even if there is a peace deal soon, the future of this industrious region that has driven global economic growth for decades will likely include months of canceled flights, surging food prices, factory pauses, delayed shipments and empty shelves for products long considered quick and easy to buy worldwide: plastic bags, instant noodles, vaccines, syringes, lipstick, microchips and sportswear.

Collectively, according to many officials and experts, if the war’s strangling of commercial traffic through the Middle East lasts for even a few more weeks, and uncertainty lingers, shortages could push several countries into convulsions of unrest, followed by recession.

Countless businesses are verging on insolvency. Governments are taking on enormous debt to slow inflation. By year’s end, in the most dire projections by the United Nations and others, millions across Asia could be pushed into poverty.

“The impacts are so rapid and deep,” said Phillip Cornell, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center who is based in Sri Lanka. “Just from a magnitude perspective, this is really very, very, very large.”

Resource scarcity tends to unleash dark forces in human psychology and capitalism. As the International Monetary Fund has noted, the world economy is slowing nearly everywhere because roughly a fifth of the world’s fossil fuels have been held back from the global market since the war started. Even if the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes tomorrow, it could take years for oil and gas output and shipping to reach fat prewar levels.

Here’s our updated chart with the total cost of Trump’s failed war. Today, revised estimates have it exceeding the total cost of either the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2010 and COVID, and about 20% of the annual output of the global economy.

Nothing is going to be the same after this failed war - not geopolitics, not our standing in the world, not our economy, not our collective relationship to fossil fuels and clean energy. New Wall Street Journal reporting captures how much damage the war is doing to the Gulf Arab states, and our standing in the world (gift link):

WASHINGTON—The United Arab Emirates has opened talks with the U.S. about obtaining a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges the oil-rich Persian Gulf state into a deeper crisis, U.S. officials said.

U.A.E. Central Bank Gov. Khaled Mohamed Balama raised the idea of a currency-swap line with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Treasury and Federal Reserve officials in meetings in Washington last week, the officials said. The Emiratis emphasized that they had so far avoided the worst economic effects of the conflict but might still need a financial lifeline, the officials said.

The talks highlighted the U.A.E.’s concern that the war could inflict major damage on its economy and its position as a global financial hub, depleting its foreign reserves and scaring away investors who once saw it as a stable and secure place for their money. The conflict has damaged Emirati oil-and-gas infrastructure and shut off their ability to sell oil using tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, depriving it of a key source of dollar revenues.

Emirati officials haven’t made a formal request for a swap line, which would give the U.A.E. central bank inexpensive access to dollars to support its currency or shore up its foreign reserves in case of a liquidity crisis. In talks with the U.S. in recent days, they have portrayed the proposal as preliminary and precautionary, the U.S. officials said.

But they have also argued that it was President Trump’s decision to attack Iran that entangled their country in a destructive conflict whose effects may not be over, some of the officials said. Emirati officials told the U.S. officials that if the U.A.E. runs short of dollars, it may be forced to use Chinese yuan or other countries’ currencies for oil sales and other transactions, some of the officials said.

In that scenario is an implicit threat to the U.S. dollar, which reigns supreme among global currencies partially because of its near-exclusive use in oil transactions.

The White House and their allies in Congress continue to tell a very, very tall and dangerous tale to the country and to themselves - Iran is defeated, all will end soon, and things will snap back to where they were, easy peasy. It’s why we don’t need hearings, or any kind of Congressional planning. Just as Trump told us about COVID, some day it will all just go away.

To understand the level of delusion Republicans are operating under right now I’ve created a page with the video and transcript of an interview NEC Director Kevin Hassett did with CNBC last week. It has to be read and watched to be believed. For in this interview he says a serious of fantastical things - that this energy shock is like previous energy shocks, and things will just snap back to the way they were; that because things will resolve quickly there will be no lasting damage to the American economy; that our tariff-damaged economy was in good shape before the war, something that is just ridiculous: that prices in our grocery stores in recent weeks have gone down - not the rate of inflation has dropped but prices themselves have dropped; and that after the war “you could be looking at inflation close to zero.”

Politico Playbook, the ultimate insidery DC publication, has a smart riff today on the GOP’s dangerous delusions:

DAY 52: We’re in week eight of Trump’s “little excursion” in Iran. It now looks certain the fallout will dominate world politics for months — perhaps years — to come.

Brace, brace: Across Europe, Asia and Africa, governments are preparing for a sustained energy shock, with related fallout likely to include jet fuel shortages, food scarcity and spiralling inflation. Any optimism of a swift resolution to the crisis has long since dissipated, and around the world authorities are starting to recommend short- and long-term shifts — fuel efficiencies, homeworking, cheaper public transport, investment in (Chinese-built) renewable energy sources.

Here in the U.S. — where we’re shielded from the worst of it — the most visible impact remains the price of gas at the pump. But here too, the administration is starting to prepare a longer-term strategy. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s admission on CNN that it “could be next year” before gas prices return to below $3-a-gallon sent alarm bells ringing for Republicans in battleground districts, for obvious reasons — that means after the midterm elections on Nov. 3.

This was no slip of the tongue. Last week, Wright told Semafor prices will remain “high and maybe even rising” until “meaningful ship traffic” returns to the Strait of Hormuz. Trump told Maria Bartiromo on Fox News last Sunday that gas prices could be “around the same” or “maybe a little bit higher” when we hit election season this fall.

Reminder: This is the same president who initially said he could end the war “in two or three days.” That quickly became “four to five weeks,” which in turn got stretched to six. But Trump always insisted oil prices would quickly return to normal, once he decided to end the conflict. We’re now seeing an administration trying to prepare the public for more drawn-out effects.

Brace yourselves: Strategists in and around the White House are under no illusions about how this is likely to play out. “The rhetoric around this stuff matters way less than the reality,” one person close to the White House tells Dasha. “It either will be or it won’t be. If we don’t see the $3 gallon of gas, we’re gonna get killed.”

It’s hard to argue. A Quinnipiac poll last week showed almost two-thirds of Americans (65 percent) blame Trump for the spike in gas prices, including 73 percent of independent voters. Trump has tied himself personally to a painful and highly visible cost of living increase, at a time when millions of Americans were already feeling the pinch.

It’s also an unusual one. Economic shocks are normally too complex to pin on any one politician. In 2022, President Joe Biden could credibly claim he was responsible for neither the Covid after-shocks, nor the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which together triggered America’s last inflationary crisis (even if Republicans could credibly claim his spending policies made things worse). Biden was blamed regardless.

No wonder White House chief of staff Susie Wiles is convening a summit of GOP operatives at the Waldorf Astoria in D.C. today, as West Wing Playbook reported. The meeting at the former Trump Hotel offers a much-needed opportunity to discuss a midterms strategy blown off course by Trump’s overseas adventures. As Dasha predicts on today’s Playbook Podcast, the best Republican strategy in the current circumstances could be to go as negative as possible against the (still widely unpopular) Democratic Party.

In the meantime, Trump could really do with a breakthrough on Iran, as his negotiators prepare to return to Pakistan for more peace talks. We’re still awaiting final confirmation, but the expectation is that a team led by VP JD Vance and supported by chief envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — a duo now referred to in diplomatic circles as “Witkush” — will arrive in Islamabad for talks this evening. The two-week ceasefire expires tomorrow night.

But but but: At the time of writing, Iran has yet to confirm it’s even taking part. Once again, Tehran is flexing its muscles, just as it did over the weekend with the abrupt reclosure of the strait, only hours after Trump said it had reopened. This is a regime that clearly believes it is holding powerful cards. Trump, by contrast, continues to oscillate between threats of mass violence and claims of an imminent breakthrough.

A war of attrition: “Tehran will not bargain away its sources of leverage,” the conservative, Trump-critical Cato Institute’s Jon Hoffman tells Dasha. “Tehran believes it is creating a new status quo between it and Washington. Tehran likely feels it has not inflicted a sufficient level of pain to keep this [war] from happening again and will therefore want real concessions and guarantees from the United States during negotiations. Absent that, they’ll return to war, since this is a war of attrition they are better suited to win. All they have to do to win is survive.”

Of course Trump went on record this morning disagreeing with his Energy Secretary gas not dropping below $3 a gallon this year - unceasing, unending gaslighting:

Here’s some new polling data from NBC News that Susie Wiles and the GOP operatives meeting today will be reviewing:

And his handling of the war is now 33%-67%!!!!!!!!!!!

Republicans in both chambers voted down Democratic efforts to rein in this terrible war last week, laying full claim to it as a party. Democrats cannot, and should not, stop fighting to bring an end to the war for Congressional Republicans are acting recklessly and dangerously by following Trump down this dark path. Their denial about the gravity of what he has done, the historic harms he has caused, the damage to America’s standing in the world, the lawlessness and Mad Kingy nature of it all must come to an end. This ain’t locker room talk, and there is no magical way out of this one. We’ve been through this with Trump before - COVID - and we know how that ended - hundreds of thousands of Americans died, unnecessarily.

We often talk about how Americans wonder whether Democrats have the toughness to govern. Well, whether we understand it or not, we are being given another test now, and it is one we must pass. For now we must accept the responsibility of getting America through to the other side of this extraordinary crisis, as we did with COVID; and once again clean up the mess of a failed, reckless Republican President.

Now…..

Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Virginia votes on tomorrow!. Watch our new interview with Virginia Speaker Don Scott; volunteer for the final push with the main campaign; make calls tonight at 530pm with our friends at Network NOVA and Rural Groundgame; and thank you to everyone who has been working hard to get this done!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $582,300 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | You can meet and get to know these House flipping candidates by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews with each.

So far we’ve sat down with Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and should rounding out the rest in the coming weeks. If you are looking for inspiration this weekend watch a few of these interviews - I promise they great candidates will get you excited about our opportunities this November!

James Talarico For Texas - $60,300 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $84,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue

Winning Ohio - $123,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue, and watch my new discussion with our good friend David Pepper, now our candidate for Lt. Gov in Ohio. This total includes $21,00 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!

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Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $524,700 raised, $750,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election. Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.

Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work to end this new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions

• Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia

• Roll back the new, illegal tariffs

• Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding, fund the IRS so it can collect the taxes the rich are hiding from us

• Launch a major anti-corruption, renewing democracy campaign, one that ensures accountability for the crimes and treason committed, limits the political power of our emerging oligarchy, and strengthens democracy here and everywhere

• Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people

• Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation

• End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health

• Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, and rescinding the tariffs that are doing so much damage to our economy.

And please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together - Simon