Here's an indication of how frightened the GOP is of losing ground in NC: They are so afraid of Jeff Jackson (running for AG in NC since they gerrymandered him out of his seat in Congress) that they are using a PAC to prop up the more beatable Democratic candidate.
I just tried the link again and it looks like they've taken it down. It's a PAC from Virginia with a Chain Bridge Road address. I unfortunately closed the tab and now I'm getting a page not found message also. Curious.
I am in NC and I'm not too concerned about Jeff's chances in the primary. Early voting is underway. I'm one of his monthly supporteds and have been already been invited to a handful of privately hosted fundraisers for for him that start at $100/ticket at the very lowest contribution level. I think he has a lot of support in the state.
We're among friends, right? I'm currently in Jeff's district, but was previously in NC-09 with Dan Bishop as my Rep. (Due to redistricting for the 2022 election, Bishop ended up representing NC-08, I believe). Bishop is super MAGA and is running on the GOP ticket for the same AG position.
I may have asked this before, but where are you in NC?
I am in Fuquay-Varina. My congressman, Wiley Nickel, was also gerrymandered out of his seat. He is not running because they say a Dem will lose. (True?). I am so bummed because I just moved from Florida and I had an awful congressman, Gus Bilirakis. I was so looking forward to having a Dem representative.
Tell me about it. The pundits are thinking it will be 10 - 4 or even 11- 3 in favor of Repubs. GRRRRR. I'm focusing on statewide races (Gov, AG, Treasurer, SC justice) and then flipping enough seats in state legislature that there isn't a GOP super majority.
Simon, any thoughts about Trump’s takeover of the RNC?
I wonder whether this isn’t a huge blessing for President Biden and all Democratic candidates. Since Trump’s only concern is himself, he is likely to bleed the RNC dry, with much of the money going to his legal bills (and fines). This leaves less funds for his campaign – and even less for downticket Republican candidates.
And on top of this, there is Trump’s proven lack of business acumen, which has caused him to leave an astounding number of bankruptcies in his wake!
Thanks! The quote from Lara Trump (likely future co-chair of the RNC) says it all:
"I can assure you.. every single penny will go to the number one and the only job of the RNC… that is electing Donald J Trump."
Why should MAGA Republicans care about Congress? After all, under the glorious reign of King Donald, America will have no need for either the Senate or the House of Representatives. Or a Supreme Court, for that matter.
There was a satirical novel that came out in the early ‘70s where the GOP changed its name to the Conservative Christian Constitutional Party (CCCP). When a news anchor called the renaming “knotheaded” because of the Soviet-sounding acronym, they changed the party name again—to the Knotheads.
The author, Walker Percy, was amazingly prescient. I wouldn’t be surprised if the current party renamed itself the Deplorables. Its transformation to a party of nothing but spite is nearly complete.
Great comments! Thanks for posting. And yet today, Robert Reich (who should know better) tantalizes his readers with a question about if Biden should run because he looks frail. Give me a break!!!!! The only good thing is that the rest of the story is buried in the "paid subscribers" section which I am not a part of. (and never will be after that!)
It's powerful - the image of an older, wiser leader backed up by muscular grassroots support (support with proven RESULTS all across the fruited plains ever since we elected President Biden).
Imho, it's clearly the reason the GOP has gone DEFCON WTF and is fighting for its life. But the party's life is not worth saving if it cannot rediscover the thread of American democracy.
I thought MAGA Mike Johnson was whistling through the graveyard when he was asked about Suozzi's win last week. It must be dawning on him that the border issue may not be the winner that they all thought it was. FYI, the Daily Kos podcast "The Downballot" did an interesting episode that was mostly devoted to the Suozzi win:
There is also Putin's assassination of Navalny at the same time that the GOP is blocking aid to Ukraine and it is exposed that Comer and Jordan were stooges (either wittingly or unwittingly) for Russia in trying to pursue the baseless Biden Impeachment. And the House is on break and thus doing absolutely nothing to prevent a looming government shutdown.
Simon, thanks for all these great updates. It's fantastic to see positive reporting about Biden and what his administration has accomplished in the face of all the drivel being put out there. I actually just became a paid member like three minutes ago to pose a question.
I am in the middle of reading political strategist Rachel Bitecofer's just-published book, "Hit 'Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating the Republicans at Their Own Game." Would you consider featuring her and her book on the newsletter and / or one of the livestreams? Your Hopium platform would be the perfect place for this important work to get the play it deserves early in the election cycle.
I haven't read the book yet but I did read her email with lots of the points from the book. I think she has some great ideas. Would love to hear more about her book.
She was a recent guest on Tony Michael's podcast. Warning: he is not your usual pundit, but a "Rush Limbaugh" of the left, though the difference is he is not spinning partisan BS, and he is not FCC appropriate, which turns some people off. Me included. So if you don't like salty language, be forewarned.
As a recent subscriber, I want to first congratulate you on this amazing work which is clear, analytic, and VERY hopeful! I have a specific question. I want to support voter registration efforts in NC, GA and other key southern states. I would appreciate your suggestions on where I should provide financial support. Thanks
Great talk with Rick and Joe, Simon! Love your point about the Dems' increasingly powerful machine. And let's be honest here--nobody gets out the Democratic vote better than TFG!
Thanks Simon. I’m excited for what’s next at Hopium. FYI to everyone Vote Forward is launching a new letter campaign soon but don’t know what it is. I’m guessing voter registration.
I suspect that Vote Forward is launching their regular GOTV campaigns. People write letters and then hold on to them until the "Big Send" date in the fall. In 2020, their goal was 10M letters - it takes a while to stockpile that many letters. ;-) I was writing GOTV letters at this time back in 2020. Our Swing Left chapter had to do a major pivot to remote letter writing due to Covid.
They have announced the states that will be included initially. I can't find the list but I know NC was included and then AZ, GA, MI, OH, PA, WI and ?? to round out the 8 initial states.
Hi Simon - What do you make of the large number of apparently undecided voters in the presidential polls? I find it hard to believe there are many undecideds at this point but do 44-44, 40-40 numbers reflect the voters we need to reach? Also, should there be a focus on presidential polling in the 7 battle ground presidential states rather than national numbers which are likely to remain close and within a margin of error?
1) lots of undecided not surprising given how far we are from the election
2) Far more national polling to look at, many state polls we have very small samples, not great quality. It's the best we have right now. State polls traditionally less reliable.
3) No reason to believe race stays within margin of error. I think we can win by high single digits.
4) We also don't know the battleground will favor Trump. It did in 2020, it favored us in 2022. Every election is a new election, with its own dynamics. My own view is that the battlegrounds are harder for Trump now than they were in 2020 given how poorly Rs performed there in 2022.
And btw while we are here the idea that the only polls that matter are the state polls is not true. Lots of other elections than in than the Presidential in those 7 states, and more data is better than less data. Again polls are not predictive. They can only tell us where things are today. And we know things will change.
Every day I repeat Simon’s mantra at least once or twice to help stay rooted in the fundamental realities of this election year that so easily get lost in the weeds of the daily firehose of news content.
“Joe Biden is a great president, and America is far better off due to his leadership. The Democratic Party is strong and winning elections all over the country. And they have Trump, the most unfit & malevolent human being to run for president in our nation’s history.”
But I add one more line that really helps me stay upbeat and grounded, and much less likely to get distracted or dismayed by the inevitable “bad news” days here and there:
“Elections are team marathons, not individual sprints, and my team is running a great race.”
Every time I say that last part I remember that we are out-training them: we’re more coordinated and have a far better fundamental core of purpose than they do.
We have the bigger coalition, and we’re reawakening the determination to preserve our democracy within our voters a little more each day. We know that different factions inside our coalition have different priorities, but all of them know that our democracy is the well from which the opportunity for advancement in those priorities spring.
The Rs are jumping from stunt to stunt like the sprinting hare, trying to find something…ANYTHING….to rest their case on, but they can’t because they lack a true unifying purpose that can provide a powerful cohesion.
We just keep running our race steadily, with no breaks like the tortoise. We ALL know why we’re doing it, and it’s far more powerful than the many disagreements that might at another time pit us against each other.
This marathon requires money, organization, focus, targeted action, unity of argument & theme, and flexibility for great candidates who need it in their states or districts. We are firing on every one of those cylinders, and the Republicans are failing on every one of them.
They have a selfish, greedy, vengeful disgrace of a man leading their party….someone who doesn’t give a shit about any other member of the team and believes he is entitled to their time and treasure no matter what hardship it might bring them, and that he owes them absolutely nothing in return for their absolute loyalty….and he’ll see to it that they are punished if they don’t comply. His hubris and incompetence has destroyed large chunks of their political machinery and bled their most financially vulnerable donors dry. They are not, by any stretch of the imagination in good enough shape to match us stride for stride in this marathon as long as we continue to steadily run our race.
The polls will be the last place to show it, not the first, but we are going to start pulling away the farther into this marathon we get, and liberating Republicans from this man’s cynical and destructive grip who just don’t know how to get out of it themselves will be one of the greatest legacies of our work when the history is written.
We got this, America and the world need it, and the future we can build together with the grit, skills, optimism, and compassion required to end MAGA’s dominance in our politics is bright beyond imagination.
Thanks for the quick response! I agree that state polls aren't the only ones that matter, but good to hear they are not great quality. The early Senate race polls are encouraging in most battleground states .
Here's an indication of how frightened the GOP is of losing ground in NC: They are so afraid of Jeff Jackson (running for AG in NC since they gerrymandered him out of his seat in Congress) that they are using a PAC to prop up the more beatable Democratic candidate.
https://www.wunc.org/2024-02-19/mysterious-super-pac-promotes-durham-da-satana-deberrys-campaign-for-attorney-general
Thank you all for helping us in NC and thank you Simon especially for reminding us to stay focused, keep working and ignore the chatterati!
Can you repost the link? I get "page not found".
I just tried the link again and it looks like they've taken it down. It's a PAC from Virginia with a Chain Bridge Road address. I unfortunately closed the tab and now I'm getting a page not found message also. Curious.
I didn't find that link, but here is a link on the same site about the person that they are propping up:
https://www.wunc.org/2023-11-10/durham-district-attorney-satana-deberry-to-challenge-jeff-jackson-in-democratic-primary-for-attorney-general
I am in NC and I'm not too concerned about Jeff's chances in the primary. Early voting is underway. I'm one of his monthly supporteds and have been already been invited to a handful of privately hosted fundraisers for for him that start at $100/ticket at the very lowest contribution level. I think he has a lot of support in the state.
Well, I guess we shouldn't publicly say who we voted for, but I voted for Jackson yesterday in early voting.
We're among friends, right? I'm currently in Jeff's district, but was previously in NC-09 with Dan Bishop as my Rep. (Due to redistricting for the 2022 election, Bishop ended up representing NC-08, I believe). Bishop is super MAGA and is running on the GOP ticket for the same AG position.
I may have asked this before, but where are you in NC?
I am in Fuquay-Varina. My congressman, Wiley Nickel, was also gerrymandered out of his seat. He is not running because they say a Dem will lose. (True?). I am so bummed because I just moved from Florida and I had an awful congressman, Gus Bilirakis. I was so looking forward to having a Dem representative.
Tell me about it. The pundits are thinking it will be 10 - 4 or even 11- 3 in favor of Repubs. GRRRRR. I'm focusing on statewide races (Gov, AG, Treasurer, SC justice) and then flipping enough seats in state legislature that there isn't a GOP super majority.
I found the story on the Charlotte-based NPR station (WFAE)'s website.
https://www.wfae.org/politics/2024-02-19/mysterious-super-pac-promotes-durham-da-satana-deberrys-campaign-for-attorney-general
Sorry for the earlier dead link.
Simon, any thoughts about Trump’s takeover of the RNC?
I wonder whether this isn’t a huge blessing for President Biden and all Democratic candidates. Since Trump’s only concern is himself, he is likely to bleed the RNC dry, with much of the money going to his legal bills (and fines). This leaves less funds for his campaign – and even less for downticket Republican candidates.
And on top of this, there is Trump’s proven lack of business acumen, which has caused him to leave an astounding number of bankruptcies in his wake!
Thoughts?
.
Daily Beast had another article about Trump's lethe DNC gal woes and the state of the RNC vis a vis the DNC, including a drill down for NC.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trumps-cash-crunch-just-got-much-much-worse?
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-truth-about-trumps-rnc-shakeupand-why-the-gop-will-suffer
and one I think I already posted:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-donald-trumps-incredible-cash-crunch
Thanks! The quote from Lara Trump (likely future co-chair of the RNC) says it all:
"I can assure you.. every single penny will go to the number one and the only job of the RNC… that is electing Donald J Trump."
Why should MAGA Republicans care about Congress? After all, under the glorious reign of King Donald, America will have no need for either the Senate or the House of Representatives. Or a Supreme Court, for that matter.
/s
I suggest you start using instead of GOP (Grand Old Party) VSV ( великая старая вечеринка Velikaya Staraya Vecherinka)
I also say Gaslighting Oligarchs for Putin
There was a satirical novel that came out in the early ‘70s where the GOP changed its name to the Conservative Christian Constitutional Party (CCCP). When a news anchor called the renaming “knotheaded” because of the Soviet-sounding acronym, they changed the party name again—to the Knotheads.
The author, Walker Percy, was amazingly prescient. I wouldn’t be surprised if the current party renamed itself the Deplorables. Its transformation to a party of nothing but spite is nearly complete.
Reposting this: Readers of The Guardian weigh in on the media’s focus on President Biden’s age.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/20/joe-bidens-age-opinions-media-strategy
Great comments! Thanks for posting. And yet today, Robert Reich (who should know better) tantalizes his readers with a question about if Biden should run because he looks frail. Give me a break!!!!! The only good thing is that the rest of the story is buried in the "paid subscribers" section which I am not a part of. (and never will be after that!)
Same thoughts on Robert Reich today. Stay strong in NC! Less of an uphill climb than here in the flatlands of the “freedom” state .😎
How do I find the paid subscriber chat?
This is it! Welcome!
Well that was easy, thanks!
It's powerful - the image of an older, wiser leader backed up by muscular grassroots support (support with proven RESULTS all across the fruited plains ever since we elected President Biden).
Imho, it's clearly the reason the GOP has gone DEFCON WTF and is fighting for its life. But the party's life is not worth saving if it cannot rediscover the thread of American democracy.
I thought MAGA Mike Johnson was whistling through the graveyard when he was asked about Suozzi's win last week. It must be dawning on him that the border issue may not be the winner that they all thought it was. FYI, the Daily Kos podcast "The Downballot" did an interesting episode that was mostly devoted to the Suozzi win:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dems-dominate-in-huge-special-election-flip/id1609094461?i=1000645413207
There is also Putin's assassination of Navalny at the same time that the GOP is blocking aid to Ukraine and it is exposed that Comer and Jordan were stooges (either wittingly or unwittingly) for Russia in trying to pursue the baseless Biden Impeachment. And the House is on break and thus doing absolutely nothing to prevent a looming government shutdown.
Simon, thanks for all these great updates. It's fantastic to see positive reporting about Biden and what his administration has accomplished in the face of all the drivel being put out there. I actually just became a paid member like three minutes ago to pose a question.
I am in the middle of reading political strategist Rachel Bitecofer's just-published book, "Hit 'Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating the Republicans at Their Own Game." Would you consider featuring her and her book on the newsletter and / or one of the livestreams? Your Hopium platform would be the perfect place for this important work to get the play it deserves early in the election cycle.
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/726798/hit-em-where-it-hurts-by-rachel-bitecofer-with-aaron-murphy/
I haven't read the book yet but I did read her email with lots of the points from the book. I think she has some great ideas. Would love to hear more about her book.
She was a recent guest on Tony Michael's podcast. Warning: he is not your usual pundit, but a "Rush Limbaugh" of the left, though the difference is he is not spinning partisan BS, and he is not FCC appropriate, which turns some people off. Me included. So if you don't like salty language, be forewarned.
Got the March dates on my calendar. I don't see a way to register for them, though. Thanks, Simon for keeping me optimistic!
As a recent subscriber, I want to first congratulate you on this amazing work which is clear, analytic, and VERY hopeful! I have a specific question. I want to support voter registration efforts in NC, GA and other key southern states. I would appreciate your suggestions on where I should provide financial support. Thanks
Great talk with Rick and Joe, Simon! Love your point about the Dems' increasingly powerful machine. And let's be honest here--nobody gets out the Democratic vote better than TFG!
Well, I do believe Justice Sam Alito, through his writings, scores a close second.
Here is an interesting link on writing letters to the editor :
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1O7aOqyF04VeCVBVxVgpCxrqTdxiSCeT2/view
Source was comment in this post: https://open.substack.com/pub/grassrootsconnector/p/anti-trump-burnout?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
They are a great group!
Amazing Substack from Reed Galen. Share far and wide to those who are still not move to act to fight for our democracy
https://open.substack.com/pub/reedgalen/p/youre-not-allowed-to-give-up?r=dppi&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Thanks Simon. I’m excited for what’s next at Hopium. FYI to everyone Vote Forward is launching a new letter campaign soon but don’t know what it is. I’m guessing voter registration.
Jason,
I suspect that Vote Forward is launching their regular GOTV campaigns. People write letters and then hold on to them until the "Big Send" date in the fall. In 2020, their goal was 10M letters - it takes a while to stockpile that many letters. ;-) I was writing GOTV letters at this time back in 2020. Our Swing Left chapter had to do a major pivot to remote letter writing due to Covid.
They have announced the states that will be included initially. I can't find the list but I know NC was included and then AZ, GA, MI, OH, PA, WI and ?? to round out the 8 initial states.
Thanks for the info Cheryl. I’d love to start writing GOTV letters as soon as possible especially if our adopted state of NC is included.
Vote Forward is launching their 2024 letter writing campaigns in the first week of March. https://votefwd.org/?utm_source=klaviyo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=em_20240220_vf%20%282024-02-20%29&_kx=PKlHm_nrZMgXvGDAGvlZqkiGUbvXanQ0iQ44qiaNNKw.LqnJRk
Hi Simon - What do you make of the large number of apparently undecided voters in the presidential polls? I find it hard to believe there are many undecideds at this point but do 44-44, 40-40 numbers reflect the voters we need to reach? Also, should there be a focus on presidential polling in the 7 battle ground presidential states rather than national numbers which are likely to remain close and within a margin of error?
A few things:
1) lots of undecided not surprising given how far we are from the election
2) Far more national polling to look at, many state polls we have very small samples, not great quality. It's the best we have right now. State polls traditionally less reliable.
3) No reason to believe race stays within margin of error. I think we can win by high single digits.
4) We also don't know the battleground will favor Trump. It did in 2020, it favored us in 2022. Every election is a new election, with its own dynamics. My own view is that the battlegrounds are harder for Trump now than they were in 2020 given how poorly Rs performed there in 2022.
And btw while we are here the idea that the only polls that matter are the state polls is not true. Lots of other elections than in than the Presidential in those 7 states, and more data is better than less data. Again polls are not predictive. They can only tell us where things are today. And we know things will change.
Every day I repeat Simon’s mantra at least once or twice to help stay rooted in the fundamental realities of this election year that so easily get lost in the weeds of the daily firehose of news content.
“Joe Biden is a great president, and America is far better off due to his leadership. The Democratic Party is strong and winning elections all over the country. And they have Trump, the most unfit & malevolent human being to run for president in our nation’s history.”
But I add one more line that really helps me stay upbeat and grounded, and much less likely to get distracted or dismayed by the inevitable “bad news” days here and there:
“Elections are team marathons, not individual sprints, and my team is running a great race.”
Every time I say that last part I remember that we are out-training them: we’re more coordinated and have a far better fundamental core of purpose than they do.
We have the bigger coalition, and we’re reawakening the determination to preserve our democracy within our voters a little more each day. We know that different factions inside our coalition have different priorities, but all of them know that our democracy is the well from which the opportunity for advancement in those priorities spring.
The Rs are jumping from stunt to stunt like the sprinting hare, trying to find something…ANYTHING….to rest their case on, but they can’t because they lack a true unifying purpose that can provide a powerful cohesion.
We just keep running our race steadily, with no breaks like the tortoise. We ALL know why we’re doing it, and it’s far more powerful than the many disagreements that might at another time pit us against each other.
This marathon requires money, organization, focus, targeted action, unity of argument & theme, and flexibility for great candidates who need it in their states or districts. We are firing on every one of those cylinders, and the Republicans are failing on every one of them.
They have a selfish, greedy, vengeful disgrace of a man leading their party….someone who doesn’t give a shit about any other member of the team and believes he is entitled to their time and treasure no matter what hardship it might bring them, and that he owes them absolutely nothing in return for their absolute loyalty….and he’ll see to it that they are punished if they don’t comply. His hubris and incompetence has destroyed large chunks of their political machinery and bled their most financially vulnerable donors dry. They are not, by any stretch of the imagination in good enough shape to match us stride for stride in this marathon as long as we continue to steadily run our race.
The polls will be the last place to show it, not the first, but we are going to start pulling away the farther into this marathon we get, and liberating Republicans from this man’s cynical and destructive grip who just don’t know how to get out of it themselves will be one of the greatest legacies of our work when the history is written.
We got this, America and the world need it, and the future we can build together with the grit, skills, optimism, and compassion required to end MAGA’s dominance in our politics is bright beyond imagination.
Especially Loved…..”my team is running a great race” part. Opening people’s eyes to how much work Dems are doing has been the most fun to share.
Thanks for the quick response! I agree that state polls aren't the only ones that matter, but good to hear they are not great quality. The early Senate race polls are encouraging in most battleground states .