There is also an emerging thing I've seen that Biden has lost the sun belt, including NV. John Hillerman was saying this today on Morning Joe, despite the fact that the segment was talking about Nate Cohn's recent "epiphany" on his crappy polling methods; it was Scarborough who had to tell him that people writing off the sun belt are not paying attention to what has been going on in NV for a few years. NV voted for Biden and HRC and now they are going to turn to the orange turd? Some of these pundits just do not know a thing about psychology or sociology, or even economics, it seems.
If you read Rachel Bitecofer, the Dems should be talking about Roe nonstop. And she is saying people are badly underestimating female outrage over republicans trying to regulate their bodies, and she brings receipts....everyone it seems, has advice for Biden, including the hapless Steve Schmidt, the man who single handedly did more to get Obama elected than anyone, by picking Sarah Palin for John McCain's running mate. Maybe Biden and Harris' team has thought of all this, and don't need advice. I think the punditry and the press corps feel a little frozen out of the Biden administration ( at least they complain a lot about it ) and this colors their "advice."
As there have been several comments about Gaza tonight I just want to implore people when they make statements like "Biden has lost Gen Z" to BACK IT UP WITH DATA. I have shared loads and loads of data on here showing that isn't the case - that Gaza is way down the list of issues for young people, Democrats and all Americans. It may be true, but folks cannot come into this community where we operate with a dedication to facts and truth and make declarative statements about an enormous chunk of the electorate without backing it up.
Andrew, it strikes me as interesting that everybody who freaks out about the politics of Israel/Palestine in the center left family, seems to not worry at all about losing Jewish voters if we just abandon Israel. I’m not going to comment right now on the policy itself, because I find the whole thing to be way more complicated than any of the detractors or supporters want to make it… It’s a place where I trust Joe Biden, and his judgment because he has more data to work with and understanding all of the potential options And the consequences of taking the different options… I’m just saying, since everyone believes that he needs to make this pivot in policy to rescue the politics, none of them ever seem concerned about how many votes we might lose from those who would be furious at an abandonment of Israel. I just frankly don’t think that these kinds of overly emotional knee-jerk reactions help find the right policy or accurately address the politics and the ramifications on our election.
The last Harvard IOP youth poll had Biden at +19 with young people, almost what he got last time, and of the 16 issues tested Gaza ranked 15 out of 16.
My advice to everyone who is unhappy with Biden on Gaza is make the case on policy grounds not political grounds. You have a much stronger argument on policy grounds that it is the wrong policy. There is far less evidence it is hurting him politically.
We know from battleground states in 2022 these kinds of very public GOP defections mattered a lot in creating a permission structure for Rs to abandon their MAGA candidates. This permission structure can be more powerful this election if we build a campaign around it, and we've seen the potential in the size of the Haley vote and in polling of Haley voters their openness to voting for Biden.
Why isn’t the MSM talking about the atrocious, angry, violence pushing rants that trump has made? Too many voters don’t read or listen to podcasts where we learn of his outrageous tirades. The MSM still treat him as a normal candidate and give him credibility.
I think we are in full agreement here! The media IS a bunch of cowards and they are much more interested in pleasing conservatives than telling the truth. (ProPublica and NPR excepted.) Don’t worry about not being clear; I was being exasperated as to why the media cared so much about not appearing to be “liberal.” Now the question is, what is in it for them NOT to be? I guess “follow the money?”
I just can’t understand how the media thinks trump won’t cobble them every way he can if he’s elected. You’d think they would have a survivor instinct and speak up for our DEMOCRACY. It makes no sense to me that they would want a trump autocracy.
Then they are obeying in advance, as Timothy Snyder puts it so well and Simon likes to quote. (As it happens, it’s one of my own favorite take-aways from “On Tyranny.”)
I wonder if they also think that people will donate to GoFundMes and legal aid and everything else if worst does come to worst and Trump tries to seriously harm people in the profession. Do they realize they are wearing the public sympathy thin, and there may be a lot of “told you so’s?”
Fact is, gasoline is dirt cheap in the US – about half the price of many European countries. That said, Americans have the dubious privilege of paying twice as much, or far more, for most prescription drugs.
I don’t expect the first fact to assuage American drivers, especially not the owners of gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs. But the second fact should make people really pissed off, to the extent that they vote Blue up and down the ballot!
Our old Prius regularly gets 50–55 mpg. On a recent round trip on secondary roads, on which the speed limit was modest, I got 76 mpg. I think that’s rather good. As for hauling stuff, it’s surprising how much we can fit in a Prius with the rear seat folded down (and occasionally the right front seat as welI).
Gas and eggs. Check out the comments on Yahoo News or on the Biden HQ page on Facebook. A good 75% of them are people screaming that under Trump they didn't have to work 3 jobs just to buy food. I find it hard to believe that if they need 3 jobs now, they wouldn't have needed 3 jobs then, but there it is. They're not discussing statistics or beliefs. They purport to be talking about their own immediate life experiences. Are they serious non-cult Trump supporters? Lying trolls? Who can tell? These comments scare the bejeezus out of me. If they are serious comments by actual human beings who are suffering in this economy, what can we do about that?
Please join us to support these three candidates --Janelle Bynum OR CD 5 and Josh Riley NY CD 19 -both are on the Hopium Win Back the House list- and Dr. Kristin Lyerly WI CD8 on Tuesday June 4th 8-9 pm ET. Democracy requires participation! We need yours. Thank you! 😊
Joe Biden is a good President, the American economy is remarkably strong, the country is better off and Joe Biden deserves re-election--Simon Rosenberg
Simon, does your math assume that Biden probably wins three of Maine’s four electoral votes?
Nebraska and Maine are, of course, the only two states that split their electoral votes. In 2020, Biden decisively won Maine’s popular vote 53–44, a nine-point victory, as well as scoring a 23-point victory in ME-01. Biden was awarded two EV votes for his state-wide win, and another for ME-01. Trump won the more-rural ME-02 by seven points, giving him just one of Maine’s four EV votes.
Do you think this is most likely scenario in 2024? I cannot see Trump winning Maine or ME-01.
I think it probably does. The most common 270 map assumes ME - 2 going to Trump and the rest to Biden. I think ME - 2 this is a good pick up opportunity for Biden but it so rarely gets mentioned.
Trump made a big play for NE - 2 last time and I think the Dems should look at ME -2 the same way. Oddly enough the house seat for each district is held by the opposing party of the President with the polling advantage. Dems hold the ME - 2 and Republicans hold NE - 2. Just food for thought about how close these are and the cross pressures people in those districts feel.
Well, Jared Golden is commonly considered one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress. He’s a mixed bag, really, but unlike Manchin or Sinema in the Senate, Golden has not been blocking President Biden’s agenda on votes that matter. Jared Golden is a huge upgrade from his thoroughly corrupt predecessor, Bruce Poliquin (R). That said, I think Golden is "Red" enough to win re-election.
I am of the opinion we should invest where the synergy opportunities exists especially when it exhausts Trump/Republican's resources. I think Biden should work to juice turn out in ME - 2 if just to help Golden and make Trump spend there, and Dems and the grassroots groups should play hard for the house seat in NE - 2 even if it just gives Biden a little boost, and shuts down Trump's hopes for a tie.
It's not like either are particularly expensive media markets and the upside is a house seat and an EC vote.
Rig it by getting moose to vote in Maine and corn to vote in Nebraska! More seriously, I agree; it would be little money spent for good results, as neither district is an expensive media market and the DNC has cash to splash.
From what I recall, Cook moved the ME-2 to “Toss Up” because the current Republican challenger to Golden, one Austin Theriault, is a former NASCAR driver and he’s young and good-looking…or something. Dear Cook pundits: women don’t vote like that. Really. Even more conservative ones.
Golden is the incumbent and a good fit for his district. If people had no problem splitting their ticket for *Susan Collins* they will have no problem keeping Jared Golden in his seat.
Gas prices were compared to Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) as an inflation adjustor. Nice, but the U.S. is currently producing over 13M barrels of crude per day (and growing), which is way more than any country on the globe, including Saudi Arabia.
On Consumer Confidence, Conor Sen had a comment last week that CC (which constantly jumps up and down like a seismograph) is basically the same now as it was throughout the W presidency prior to 2008 - people generally remember that as a pretty good economy. His argument was that Trump enjoyed a presidency during a period of unprecedented and unrepeatable simultaneous low interest rates and low inflation as a byproduct of the strange, slow, US recovery from the Recession.
Republicans and their allies have made a massive investment in the Biden declared war on energy, drove up gas prices, that in turn fueled inflation and destroyed the Middle Class. While not of this is true, it is the core of their indictment of Biden, and we are going to see it and feel it a lot in the coming months. As I posted it also serves other interests - deflecting the blame from Putin allowed Trump and MAGA to hold up Ukraine funding for six months. There are big and powerful forces at play here spending enormous sums of money to blame Biden and not them for higher gas prices and inflation.
If u have a few minutes, this link explains how Simon’s point of foreign collusion to keep prices high! But now the FTC and Lina Khan have found a domestic perpetrator too! Pioneer Natural Resources, Scott Sheffield in Texas! Big Oil here wanted to keep prices high! More corporate greed and thus why Biden his FTC are monopoly busting and and taking Execs off boards! Prices will come down on everything if Biden keeps holding companies RESPONSIBLE for greed.
It has graphs and data and experts. GREAT factual vid from More Perfect Union.
Imho, the Biden Campaign and Administration need to loudly proclaim everything they are doing to fight "greedflation"! That means highlighting the admirable efforts of Lina Khan and the FTC, Buttigieg’s demand for automatic refunds from airlines that fail to deliver services paid for, and Biden’s heroic efforts to eliminate junk fees.
Good deeds need a great narrative – and in 2024, it must be a very loud narrative!
AOC has a very astute response to Progressives who disagree with key Biden policies, such as Gaza. She underscores why they should – in fact, *must* – vote for President Biden. It’s definitely worth two minutes of your time.
She may not make perfect policy judgments, but she is right an awful lot, and her *political* judgments are usually spot-on, and her rhetorical choices are just about always responsible.
When I speak to other Democrats and self-proclaimed Democrats who get a little bit tense or grimace-faced when they hear about or speak about AOC (or when they spoke of Pelosi for that matter....and dammit remember Nancy has a first name, and Alexandria or Sandy has a full-name too) - I always challenge them whether they were turned off or made uncomfortable by something that House member themself *did* or *said* firsthand or that somebody else somewhere said about them. Keep your brain pollution free from all the garbage constantly put out by the other side.
Or if there is a problem with being “aggressive” or “shrill” if the statements are coming from a woman. AOC is still young enough to not get the particular opprobrium flung at women over 40 or 50 - you know, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, etc. If you don’t like *what someone says* that’s one thing; if you think they are “pushy” or “have no manners” or “opportunistic” that is different. (Republican politicians are the ones who are really opportunistic, IMO. Look at Kari Lake. She went from a kind of centrist liberal Obama voter and yoga mom to this off-the-charts MAGA. Now *that* is pure opportunism. Same with Larry Hogan trying to play both sides and somehow win over both disaffected moderate R’s and MAGA’s.)
I may not agree with everything AOC does or says, but she’s smart, she has good instincts, and she’s been supportive of Joe Biden. And she’s resisted the trap that some of her less honest admirers have tried to set for her - the Political Cool Girl or “I’d vote for THIS woman IF ONLY.” I think she knows that any woman has a chance of being Just Not That One when they finally are eligible for POTUS (or Senate or whatever). If not, Elizabeth Warren would be happy to tell her.
It's also weird how you can get away with being a karen in politics....if you're a conservative.
The history of differential voter enthusiasm between Obama's margins and HRC's tells me, next open primary, keep nominating handsome black men until the American electorate grows up some more.
She’s kind of the anti-Karen. (I’ve always wondered what black women named Karen thought when “Karen” became the generic term for ill-behaved entitled white women.)
We have Raphael Warnock and Wes Moore! Joe Neguse is another black politician with a bright future. If handsome black men are our ticket to victory, we do have a pipeline.
People *have* mooted putting Warnock on a future ticket. I think he’d be great (and well-tailored) - the problem is we don’t want to lose his seat. Could Lucy McBath perhaps win it if Warnock is ever tapped for POTUS/VP/Cabinet?
And you are right about how easy it is to get away with having an unpleasant personality in politics if one is a Republican. Kristi Noem *may* have pushed it too far with poor, poor Cricket, but there was barely a peep raised on the Republican side when she was banned from 20% of *her whole state* (something even Greg Gianforte can’t boast about). South Dakota’s Natives do not want her on their land, and they have the real-world power to enforce it.
AOC is admirably result-oriented! That’s a quality that is sorely missed in many progressives, and certainly in the rest of the so-called Squad. And despite his many good qualities and ideas, Bernie Sanders is absolutely abysmal when it comes to building alliances in order to actually get stuff done.
I think that one reason Joe Biden is such a successful President is that he IS good at building alliances. His Senate colleagues liked him - he even counted Mitch McConnell as a friend. Now that doesn’t mean that McConnell will vote for stuff that Biden wants, but, it does mean that Biden has a great advantage when it comes to actually working with Congress, his cabinet, and staff, to get things accomplished.
It’s something that Jimmy Carter, despite his being a good *person*, could not do. He fought with and nit picked Congress constantly. Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had to find their feet as either an outsider (Clinton) or newbie (Obama). And it’s why LBJ, despite *not* being a good person, could get so much done. Not by making them watch him drop the kids at the pool, but by leveraging relationships, and knowing Congress so well, that he was able to say “OK, Senator SoandSo wants this, and Representative SuchandSuch wants that, how can I give them what they want in exchange for what I want, and make them feel like I’m doing them the biggest of favors?”
LBJ knew where and how to apply pressure – as did good ole Abe Lincoln. The masterful film with Daniel Day Lewis makes this abundantly clear. If only Democrats had done this very early with Senator Joe Manchin! (Before the Republicans got to him and the oil/gas lobbyists bought his soul.) Perhaps:
"Senator, I know someone who is very interested in buying out your shares in the coal-mining industry. And by the way, we need your vote on Build Back Better, extending the Child Tax Credit and codifying Roe v Wade. Oh, and I hear you have two pieces of legislation you’d like my help getting across the finish line…"
I wonder if it was one of those situations where so much political capital had been expended that pressuring Manchin went out the window. Or Joe wanted to pressure Joe but others vetoed it. I don’t think it was as bad as the “But Barack Obama had a soopermajoritee!”, because having to point out, endlessly, that 1) Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd were literally on their death beds and 2) speaking of Al Franken, he was facing a recount from his sore-loser opponent because the election was pretty narrow, so he wasn’t seated for five months or so, gets *really really tedious* really really fast.
If Manchin was intent on retiring anyway, I don’t know why he did not say “oh to hell with it” and side with most of his fellow Democrats. Maybe those oil and gas payouts were super big and super sweet. He does have a yacht to maintain!
Kyrsten Sinema I don’t think could be pressured. She was such a very, very odd duck. I still don’t know what makes her tick. Ruben Gallego is going to be a vast upgrade.
I’d love to see Blexas and Blorida if only to give us a bigger cushion if one of the more conservative Democrats needs to please their constituents and defect.
I have heard experts say AOC is astute and willing to learn how to do the business of Congress; she has taken a practical approach to most issues. Just compare her to Boebert or MTG or Tlaib. AOC is no wild eyed lefty; she's mostly a New Deal Dem from what I have seen.
I agree. I think that AOC was willing to temper her original approach to work with Congress and actually get things done. At this point she’s more in line with Jamie Raskin, Mark DeSaulnier or Bonnie Watson Coleman (bet you haven’t heard of those last two! DeSaulnier is from the CA Bay Area and Watson Coleman from New Jersey). But they fly under the radar by being besuited grandma and grandpa types who aren’t very active on social media. I think people *look* at AOC and see what they want to see; “young outspoken Latina woman who was once part of ‘The Squad’” = wild-eyed commie no matter what her actual beliefs and voting record.
Thank you Simon. Growth and expansion are so important because IMO 270 electoral votes are not enough. I believe SCOTUS will absolutely put their thumb on the scale if it comes down to one state, but that is much less likely if we run up the score and win AZ, NV, NC and maybe even GA. Let’s get to 55!
Simon -- listened to your podcast conversation/Q&A with C-span from last Thursday am. One of the later questions from a GOP caller was both siding Presidents/elected officials who have cheated, slept around their marriages or more. The caller mentioned Bill Clinton among others. And as much as you are technically correct with your response that DJT has been found in a court of law by a jury to have sexually assaulted a woman -- E Jean Carroll and therefore it is quite different in terms of how we should evaluate a candidate, I would have preferred a better answer as time as shown that Clinton's treatment of Monica Lewinsky was far from "consensual." I think a better response to this type of question is that we have had unfortunately too many leaders/politicians - both dems and repubs who have shown a disrespect of the marital vows (you can nuance it as you would like) and /or have had legally problematic sexual relationships with much younger women with an imbalanced power dynamic. We should not be okay regardless of what aisle they are on. Biden is not one of these people. His story as a young widower from a tragic accident, his genuine love for Dr. Jill Biden -- something he never thought he would have. The fact that Dr. Biden pursued her education and had a full career -- with his full support. Biden's acknowledgement that his conduct during the Thomas/Hill hearings was wrong. It is a clear choice of who is the better man.
Thank you Molly. It's been a long time since I had to answer a question like that and was perhaps a little rusty. But we need to be very clear that under our current understanding of law while what Bill Clinton did was wrong it was not sexual assault, where what happened with E. Jean Carroll was rape. These things are not the same, and cannot be treated as such.
What Bill Clinton did wrong was sleep with an underling, which now is widely recognized as not a crime per se, but as bad office politics and a misuse of power. And then he throws Lewinsky under the bus when he wants to deflect blame and calls her “that woman.” That was not criminal behavior, it was just crappy. I also think it was stupidly tempting fate, in that Bill Clinton had to *know* that the press was hostile to him, and he had to *know* that having sex with an intern would not be a good look, but he went ahead and did it anyway.
Donald Trump *raped* E. Jean Carroll, full stop. No disagreement there! What he did was rape, and a crime, and I hope E. Jean can get every penny that Donald Trump has. (I still remember her column in Elle magazine with fondness. I read it avidly back in the late 90s and early aughts.)
Joe Biden remarrying after being widowed? Frankly I’m surprised anyone clutches their pearls over that. Even the Victorians thought that their namesake Queen went just a little overboard in mourning Dearest Albert. Joe and Jill seem to have a terrific marriage. (Certainly more solid and authentic than the previous occupant, a low bar, I know.) And they have a cat.
False news! There is absolutely no evidence Bill Clinton ever slept with Monica Lewinsky. Quite the contrary – all reports indicate that whenever they spent time together, both of them stayed awake.
I understand the differences but politically as a woman I think they are both reprehensible and my suggestion is to avoid the debate completely. And don't feel its throwing Clinton or Weiner under the bus -- they deserve the criticism they received. But Biden is easily distinguisable.
I would say the two situations are just not comparable. Bill Clinton was inappropriate, but his actions were not criminal. trump's actions would result in serious time in a criminal court conviction. But this is like when I used to be a teacher many moons ago....the bully would always say, well you didn't say anything when so and so did something.....ok, so and so got away with it. But that doesn't change the fact that the bully is caught and getting disciplined. Weiner, Clinton and JFK who the caller also mentioned, are not running for president. trump is. They are going to keep bringing this up, so we have to respond. But we don't have to engage; a simple pointing out that those people are not on the ballot is enough IMO.
Totally agree that we should not engage -- BC, AW, JFK should not be part of the conversation. And I do know that legally the situations are different. I am talking politically how the voter hears it who may not be paying as much attention as we are AND/OR are NOT attorneys. I am an attorney married to a criminal defense attorney - I indeed know the difference. Worried for the many who categorize the men as one type. And that is definitely NOT Biden.
And if anyone is criticizing Joe Biden for *remarrying* I would say they are merely looking for any excuse to be anti-Biden. As long as it’s not being done Henry VIII style, it’s pretty normal for young, widowed people to remarry.
An aside, if I may: Senator Al Franken should never have been compelled to resign. That reaction was over the top; many of the accusations were untrue or exaggerated. Tragically, we Democrats lost one of our best senators that day. Betcha a lot of top Republicans were raising a celebratory toast in the back room!
Tina Smith is a perfectly good replacement, though, and she is effective. I think we overestimate sometimes how much wit and charisma can accomplish. Thankfully, the seat was never in danger of flipping back to red because the Minnesota R’s had that Bad Candidate Problem even in 2017. (And now the Democrats are in an even better position because the “Legal Marijuana Now” stooge for the Republicans party has been sent packing. After all, if Marijuana Is Legal Now, what reason does it have to exist? Thanks, Tim!)
I note this not because I think it’s wrong and bad to miss Al Franken and his presence, but to say that very few people are *truly* irreplaceable unless they are a Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown who hangs on to very hard to hold offices in swing states.
Or how about “get a hybrid SUV, or maybe a sedan, instead?” People who buy giant gas-guzzling monster trucks when they don’t need them to haul equipment, horses, or large dogs, and then whine about how expensive it is to keep them filled up - smdh. I’m thinking of my former next-door neighbor, who was a dermatologist (not a contractor or electrician or plumber), had no pets, and didn’t go camping. But he did have a giant Ram in his driveway. Normally I don’t care what other people spend their money on and hate scolding, but in these cases, people bring it on themselves.
For the record, I drive a non-plug-in hybrid; I don’t have a place at home to charge it and can’t entirely rely on the public network yet. But the hybrid still saves me *a ton* on gas.
....neighbor with crazy non-utilitarian thirsty vehicle whines about gas prices....
"Well, it's a sign of the times, with our record gas production and supply in America, that Americans, and people around the world, are just so prosperous they are willing to pay up so much for fuel and have big, beautiful vehicles like yours. It's really nice. It's just some of the downside of prosperity I guess."
Two quick thoughts, if I may:
– There is a disconnection between real economics and "vibe" economics.
– Current inflation is down, but people feel the pain of cumulative inflation (high prices).
This, in my opinion, is why President Biden needs to more loudly tackle "greedflation".
There is also an emerging thing I've seen that Biden has lost the sun belt, including NV. John Hillerman was saying this today on Morning Joe, despite the fact that the segment was talking about Nate Cohn's recent "epiphany" on his crappy polling methods; it was Scarborough who had to tell him that people writing off the sun belt are not paying attention to what has been going on in NV for a few years. NV voted for Biden and HRC and now they are going to turn to the orange turd? Some of these pundits just do not know a thing about psychology or sociology, or even economics, it seems.
I look forward to some choice words from Jon Ralston, famed political analyst and Editor of the Nevada Independent, on this highly unlikely rumor.
If you read Rachel Bitecofer, the Dems should be talking about Roe nonstop. And she is saying people are badly underestimating female outrage over republicans trying to regulate their bodies, and she brings receipts....everyone it seems, has advice for Biden, including the hapless Steve Schmidt, the man who single handedly did more to get Obama elected than anyone, by picking Sarah Palin for John McCain's running mate. Maybe Biden and Harris' team has thought of all this, and don't need advice. I think the punditry and the press corps feel a little frozen out of the Biden administration ( at least they complain a lot about it ) and this colors their "advice."
This: “we know prices are too high . . . and this is what we’re going to do about it”. Spot on!
As there have been several comments about Gaza tonight I just want to implore people when they make statements like "Biden has lost Gen Z" to BACK IT UP WITH DATA. I have shared loads and loads of data on here showing that isn't the case - that Gaza is way down the list of issues for young people, Democrats and all Americans. It may be true, but folks cannot come into this community where we operate with a dedication to facts and truth and make declarative statements about an enormous chunk of the electorate without backing it up.
Andrew, it strikes me as interesting that everybody who freaks out about the politics of Israel/Palestine in the center left family, seems to not worry at all about losing Jewish voters if we just abandon Israel. I’m not going to comment right now on the policy itself, because I find the whole thing to be way more complicated than any of the detractors or supporters want to make it… It’s a place where I trust Joe Biden, and his judgment because he has more data to work with and understanding all of the potential options And the consequences of taking the different options… I’m just saying, since everyone believes that he needs to make this pivot in policy to rescue the politics, none of them ever seem concerned about how many votes we might lose from those who would be furious at an abandonment of Israel. I just frankly don’t think that these kinds of overly emotional knee-jerk reactions help find the right policy or accurately address the politics and the ramifications on our election.
The last Harvard IOP youth poll had Biden at +19 with young people, almost what he got last time, and of the 16 issues tested Gaza ranked 15 out of 16.
My advice to everyone who is unhappy with Biden on Gaza is make the case on policy grounds not political grounds. You have a much stronger argument on policy grounds that it is the wrong policy. There is far less evidence it is hurting him politically.
We know from battleground states in 2022 these kinds of very public GOP defections mattered a lot in creating a permission structure for Rs to abandon their MAGA candidates. This permission structure can be more powerful this election if we build a campaign around it, and we've seen the potential in the size of the Haley vote and in polling of Haley voters their openness to voting for Biden.
Why isn’t the MSM talking about the atrocious, angry, violence pushing rants that trump has made? Too many voters don’t read or listen to podcasts where we learn of his outrageous tirades. The MSM still treat him as a normal candidate and give him credibility.
Liberal media? How about being truthful media. 🤯
Why are they so scared of that? Why can’t they say “yeah and so what” or “your momma?” What hold do conservatives have over them?
I think we are in full agreement here! The media IS a bunch of cowards and they are much more interested in pleasing conservatives than telling the truth. (ProPublica and NPR excepted.) Don’t worry about not being clear; I was being exasperated as to why the media cared so much about not appearing to be “liberal.” Now the question is, what is in it for them NOT to be? I guess “follow the money?”
I just can’t understand how the media thinks trump won’t cobble them every way he can if he’s elected. You’d think they would have a survivor instinct and speak up for our DEMOCRACY. It makes no sense to me that they would want a trump autocracy.
Then they are obeying in advance, as Timothy Snyder puts it so well and Simon likes to quote. (As it happens, it’s one of my own favorite take-aways from “On Tyranny.”)
I wonder if they also think that people will donate to GoFundMes and legal aid and everything else if worst does come to worst and Trump tries to seriously harm people in the profession. Do they realize they are wearing the public sympathy thin, and there may be a lot of “told you so’s?”
Fact is, gasoline is dirt cheap in the US – about half the price of many European countries. That said, Americans have the dubious privilege of paying twice as much, or far more, for most prescription drugs.
I don’t expect the first fact to assuage American drivers, especially not the owners of gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs. But the second fact should make people really pissed off, to the extent that they vote Blue up and down the ballot!
Spot on!
Our old Prius regularly gets 50–55 mpg. On a recent round trip on secondary roads, on which the speed limit was modest, I got 76 mpg. I think that’s rather good. As for hauling stuff, it’s surprising how much we can fit in a Prius with the rear seat folded down (and occasionally the right front seat as welI).
Gas and eggs. Check out the comments on Yahoo News or on the Biden HQ page on Facebook. A good 75% of them are people screaming that under Trump they didn't have to work 3 jobs just to buy food. I find it hard to believe that if they need 3 jobs now, they wouldn't have needed 3 jobs then, but there it is. They're not discussing statistics or beliefs. They purport to be talking about their own immediate life experiences. Are they serious non-cult Trump supporters? Lying trolls? Who can tell? These comments scare the bejeezus out of me. If they are serious comments by actual human beings who are suffering in this economy, what can we do about that?
Reposting ---
Simon Says-- "Do More; Worry Less!"
Please join us to support these three candidates --Janelle Bynum OR CD 5 and Josh Riley NY CD 19 -both are on the Hopium Win Back the House list- and Dr. Kristin Lyerly WI CD8 on Tuesday June 4th 8-9 pm ET. Democracy requires participation! We need yours. Thank you! 😊
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Joe Biden is a good President, the American economy is remarkably strong, the country is better off and Joe Biden deserves re-election--Simon Rosenberg
Simon, does your math assume that Biden probably wins three of Maine’s four electoral votes?
Nebraska and Maine are, of course, the only two states that split their electoral votes. In 2020, Biden decisively won Maine’s popular vote 53–44, a nine-point victory, as well as scoring a 23-point victory in ME-01. Biden was awarded two EV votes for his state-wide win, and another for ME-01. Trump won the more-rural ME-02 by seven points, giving him just one of Maine’s four EV votes.
Do you think this is most likely scenario in 2024? I cannot see Trump winning Maine or ME-01.
I think it probably does. The most common 270 map assumes ME - 2 going to Trump and the rest to Biden. I think ME - 2 this is a good pick up opportunity for Biden but it so rarely gets mentioned.
Trump made a big play for NE - 2 last time and I think the Dems should look at ME -2 the same way. Oddly enough the house seat for each district is held by the opposing party of the President with the polling advantage. Dems hold the ME - 2 and Republicans hold NE - 2. Just food for thought about how close these are and the cross pressures people in those districts feel.
Well, Jared Golden is commonly considered one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress. He’s a mixed bag, really, but unlike Manchin or Sinema in the Senate, Golden has not been blocking President Biden’s agenda on votes that matter. Jared Golden is a huge upgrade from his thoroughly corrupt predecessor, Bruce Poliquin (R). That said, I think Golden is "Red" enough to win re-election.
I am of the opinion we should invest where the synergy opportunities exists especially when it exhausts Trump/Republican's resources. I think Biden should work to juice turn out in ME - 2 if just to help Golden and make Trump spend there, and Dems and the grassroots groups should play hard for the house seat in NE - 2 even if it just gives Biden a little boost, and shuts down Trump's hopes for a tie.
It's not like either are particularly expensive media markets and the upside is a house seat and an EC vote.
Rig it by getting moose to vote in Maine and corn to vote in Nebraska! More seriously, I agree; it would be little money spent for good results, as neither district is an expensive media market and the DNC has cash to splash.
From what I recall, Cook moved the ME-2 to “Toss Up” because the current Republican challenger to Golden, one Austin Theriault, is a former NASCAR driver and he’s young and good-looking…or something. Dear Cook pundits: women don’t vote like that. Really. Even more conservative ones.
Golden is the incumbent and a good fit for his district. If people had no problem splitting their ticket for *Susan Collins* they will have no problem keeping Jared Golden in his seat.
Gas prices were compared to Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) as an inflation adjustor. Nice, but the U.S. is currently producing over 13M barrels of crude per day (and growing), which is way more than any country on the globe, including Saudi Arabia.
Hopium Chronicles: Best Inbox Item daily!
I'm a little surprised to hear there's griping on gas prices right now... https://gasprices.aaa.com/
They fell 4 cents in the last week and are tracking right on (at the moment below) last year's price curve. They're famously cyclical. Expect them to climb in the late summer and sink in the fall (https://gasprices.aaa.com/pump-prices-hit-the-rest-stop-ahead-of-long-holiday-weekend/) - note that that's last week's report.
On Consumer Confidence, Conor Sen had a comment last week that CC (which constantly jumps up and down like a seismograph) is basically the same now as it was throughout the W presidency prior to 2008 - people generally remember that as a pretty good economy. His argument was that Trump enjoyed a presidency during a period of unprecedented and unrepeatable simultaneous low interest rates and low inflation as a byproduct of the strange, slow, US recovery from the Recession.
Republicans and their allies have made a massive investment in the Biden declared war on energy, drove up gas prices, that in turn fueled inflation and destroyed the Middle Class. While not of this is true, it is the core of their indictment of Biden, and we are going to see it and feel it a lot in the coming months. As I posted it also serves other interests - deflecting the blame from Putin allowed Trump and MAGA to hold up Ukraine funding for six months. There are big and powerful forces at play here spending enormous sums of money to blame Biden and not them for higher gas prices and inflation.
If u have a few minutes, this link explains how Simon’s point of foreign collusion to keep prices high! But now the FTC and Lina Khan have found a domestic perpetrator too! Pioneer Natural Resources, Scott Sheffield in Texas! Big Oil here wanted to keep prices high! More corporate greed and thus why Biden his FTC are monopoly busting and and taking Execs off boards! Prices will come down on everything if Biden keeps holding companies RESPONSIBLE for greed.
It has graphs and data and experts. GREAT factual vid from More Perfect Union.
https://youtu.be/gWwWkH0iJtc?si=aSIDhCgJqQzVokIn
Imho, the Biden Campaign and Administration need to loudly proclaim everything they are doing to fight "greedflation"! That means highlighting the admirable efforts of Lina Khan and the FTC, Buttigieg’s demand for automatic refunds from airlines that fail to deliver services paid for, and Biden’s heroic efforts to eliminate junk fees.
Good deeds need a great narrative – and in 2024, it must be a very loud narrative!
AOC has a very astute response to Progressives who disagree with key Biden policies, such as Gaza. She underscores why they should – in fact, *must* – vote for President Biden. It’s definitely worth two minutes of your time.
https://x.com/mehdirhasan/status/1781120448186462407
She may not make perfect policy judgments, but she is right an awful lot, and her *political* judgments are usually spot-on, and her rhetorical choices are just about always responsible.
When I speak to other Democrats and self-proclaimed Democrats who get a little bit tense or grimace-faced when they hear about or speak about AOC (or when they spoke of Pelosi for that matter....and dammit remember Nancy has a first name, and Alexandria or Sandy has a full-name too) - I always challenge them whether they were turned off or made uncomfortable by something that House member themself *did* or *said* firsthand or that somebody else somewhere said about them. Keep your brain pollution free from all the garbage constantly put out by the other side.
Or if there is a problem with being “aggressive” or “shrill” if the statements are coming from a woman. AOC is still young enough to not get the particular opprobrium flung at women over 40 or 50 - you know, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, etc. If you don’t like *what someone says* that’s one thing; if you think they are “pushy” or “have no manners” or “opportunistic” that is different. (Republican politicians are the ones who are really opportunistic, IMO. Look at Kari Lake. She went from a kind of centrist liberal Obama voter and yoga mom to this off-the-charts MAGA. Now *that* is pure opportunism. Same with Larry Hogan trying to play both sides and somehow win over both disaffected moderate R’s and MAGA’s.)
I may not agree with everything AOC does or says, but she’s smart, she has good instincts, and she’s been supportive of Joe Biden. And she’s resisted the trap that some of her less honest admirers have tried to set for her - the Political Cool Girl or “I’d vote for THIS woman IF ONLY.” I think she knows that any woman has a chance of being Just Not That One when they finally are eligible for POTUS (or Senate or whatever). If not, Elizabeth Warren would be happy to tell her.
So right in that last part.
It's also weird how you can get away with being a karen in politics....if you're a conservative.
The history of differential voter enthusiasm between Obama's margins and HRC's tells me, next open primary, keep nominating handsome black men until the American electorate grows up some more.
Well, I rather like Karen Bass. Just saying.
She’s kind of the anti-Karen. (I’ve always wondered what black women named Karen thought when “Karen” became the generic term for ill-behaved entitled white women.)
We have Raphael Warnock and Wes Moore! Joe Neguse is another black politician with a bright future. If handsome black men are our ticket to victory, we do have a pipeline.
People *have* mooted putting Warnock on a future ticket. I think he’d be great (and well-tailored) - the problem is we don’t want to lose his seat. Could Lucy McBath perhaps win it if Warnock is ever tapped for POTUS/VP/Cabinet?
And you are right about how easy it is to get away with having an unpleasant personality in politics if one is a Republican. Kristi Noem *may* have pushed it too far with poor, poor Cricket, but there was barely a peep raised on the Republican side when she was banned from 20% of *her whole state* (something even Greg Gianforte can’t boast about). South Dakota’s Natives do not want her on their land, and they have the real-world power to enforce it.
AOC is admirably result-oriented! That’s a quality that is sorely missed in many progressives, and certainly in the rest of the so-called Squad. And despite his many good qualities and ideas, Bernie Sanders is absolutely abysmal when it comes to building alliances in order to actually get stuff done.
I think that one reason Joe Biden is such a successful President is that he IS good at building alliances. His Senate colleagues liked him - he even counted Mitch McConnell as a friend. Now that doesn’t mean that McConnell will vote for stuff that Biden wants, but, it does mean that Biden has a great advantage when it comes to actually working with Congress, his cabinet, and staff, to get things accomplished.
It’s something that Jimmy Carter, despite his being a good *person*, could not do. He fought with and nit picked Congress constantly. Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had to find their feet as either an outsider (Clinton) or newbie (Obama). And it’s why LBJ, despite *not* being a good person, could get so much done. Not by making them watch him drop the kids at the pool, but by leveraging relationships, and knowing Congress so well, that he was able to say “OK, Senator SoandSo wants this, and Representative SuchandSuch wants that, how can I give them what they want in exchange for what I want, and make them feel like I’m doing them the biggest of favors?”
LBJ knew where and how to apply pressure – as did good ole Abe Lincoln. The masterful film with Daniel Day Lewis makes this abundantly clear. If only Democrats had done this very early with Senator Joe Manchin! (Before the Republicans got to him and the oil/gas lobbyists bought his soul.) Perhaps:
"Senator, I know someone who is very interested in buying out your shares in the coal-mining industry. And by the way, we need your vote on Build Back Better, extending the Child Tax Credit and codifying Roe v Wade. Oh, and I hear you have two pieces of legislation you’d like my help getting across the finish line…"
I wonder if it was one of those situations where so much political capital had been expended that pressuring Manchin went out the window. Or Joe wanted to pressure Joe but others vetoed it. I don’t think it was as bad as the “But Barack Obama had a soopermajoritee!”, because having to point out, endlessly, that 1) Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd were literally on their death beds and 2) speaking of Al Franken, he was facing a recount from his sore-loser opponent because the election was pretty narrow, so he wasn’t seated for five months or so, gets *really really tedious* really really fast.
If Manchin was intent on retiring anyway, I don’t know why he did not say “oh to hell with it” and side with most of his fellow Democrats. Maybe those oil and gas payouts were super big and super sweet. He does have a yacht to maintain!
Kyrsten Sinema I don’t think could be pressured. She was such a very, very odd duck. I still don’t know what makes her tick. Ruben Gallego is going to be a vast upgrade.
I’d love to see Blexas and Blorida if only to give us a bigger cushion if one of the more conservative Democrats needs to please their constituents and defect.
I have heard experts say AOC is astute and willing to learn how to do the business of Congress; she has taken a practical approach to most issues. Just compare her to Boebert or MTG or Tlaib. AOC is no wild eyed lefty; she's mostly a New Deal Dem from what I have seen.
I agree. I think that AOC was willing to temper her original approach to work with Congress and actually get things done. At this point she’s more in line with Jamie Raskin, Mark DeSaulnier or Bonnie Watson Coleman (bet you haven’t heard of those last two! DeSaulnier is from the CA Bay Area and Watson Coleman from New Jersey). But they fly under the radar by being besuited grandma and grandpa types who aren’t very active on social media. I think people *look* at AOC and see what they want to see; “young outspoken Latina woman who was once part of ‘The Squad’” = wild-eyed commie no matter what her actual beliefs and voting record.
I'm in NJ; Watson Coleman did turn me off a bit on Gaza, but we can't all agree on everything. Big picture.
She also donated $260K to the Dems congressional campaign arm this cycle. She understands the big picture.
Her answer is excellent. It’s exactly the right argument to make.
Simon,
Ignore Chris Cillizza. He's just another drama Queen journalist incapable of analyzing polling data. Probably, the same is true of Issac Chotiner
Everyone attacked me in 2022, and that didn't turn out too well for them.
For some reason I recall this sage advise (not entirely apropos, of course):
"If you are being run out of town, get in front of the crowd and make it look like a parade."
– Sally Stanford (former madam and mayor)
Thank you Simon. Growth and expansion are so important because IMO 270 electoral votes are not enough. I believe SCOTUS will absolutely put their thumb on the scale if it comes down to one state, but that is much less likely if we run up the score and win AZ, NV, NC and maybe even GA. Let’s get to 55!
Simon -- listened to your podcast conversation/Q&A with C-span from last Thursday am. One of the later questions from a GOP caller was both siding Presidents/elected officials who have cheated, slept around their marriages or more. The caller mentioned Bill Clinton among others. And as much as you are technically correct with your response that DJT has been found in a court of law by a jury to have sexually assaulted a woman -- E Jean Carroll and therefore it is quite different in terms of how we should evaluate a candidate, I would have preferred a better answer as time as shown that Clinton's treatment of Monica Lewinsky was far from "consensual." I think a better response to this type of question is that we have had unfortunately too many leaders/politicians - both dems and repubs who have shown a disrespect of the marital vows (you can nuance it as you would like) and /or have had legally problematic sexual relationships with much younger women with an imbalanced power dynamic. We should not be okay regardless of what aisle they are on. Biden is not one of these people. His story as a young widower from a tragic accident, his genuine love for Dr. Jill Biden -- something he never thought he would have. The fact that Dr. Biden pursued her education and had a full career -- with his full support. Biden's acknowledgement that his conduct during the Thomas/Hill hearings was wrong. It is a clear choice of who is the better man.
Thank you Molly. It's been a long time since I had to answer a question like that and was perhaps a little rusty. But we need to be very clear that under our current understanding of law while what Bill Clinton did was wrong it was not sexual assault, where what happened with E. Jean Carroll was rape. These things are not the same, and cannot be treated as such.
What Bill Clinton did wrong was sleep with an underling, which now is widely recognized as not a crime per se, but as bad office politics and a misuse of power. And then he throws Lewinsky under the bus when he wants to deflect blame and calls her “that woman.” That was not criminal behavior, it was just crappy. I also think it was stupidly tempting fate, in that Bill Clinton had to *know* that the press was hostile to him, and he had to *know* that having sex with an intern would not be a good look, but he went ahead and did it anyway.
Donald Trump *raped* E. Jean Carroll, full stop. No disagreement there! What he did was rape, and a crime, and I hope E. Jean can get every penny that Donald Trump has. (I still remember her column in Elle magazine with fondness. I read it avidly back in the late 90s and early aughts.)
Joe Biden remarrying after being widowed? Frankly I’m surprised anyone clutches their pearls over that. Even the Victorians thought that their namesake Queen went just a little overboard in mourning Dearest Albert. Joe and Jill seem to have a terrific marriage. (Certainly more solid and authentic than the previous occupant, a low bar, I know.) And they have a cat.
False news! There is absolutely no evidence Bill Clinton ever slept with Monica Lewinsky. Quite the contrary – all reports indicate that whenever they spent time together, both of them stayed awake.
I understand the differences but politically as a woman I think they are both reprehensible and my suggestion is to avoid the debate completely. And don't feel its throwing Clinton or Weiner under the bus -- they deserve the criticism they received. But Biden is easily distinguisable.
I would say the two situations are just not comparable. Bill Clinton was inappropriate, but his actions were not criminal. trump's actions would result in serious time in a criminal court conviction. But this is like when I used to be a teacher many moons ago....the bully would always say, well you didn't say anything when so and so did something.....ok, so and so got away with it. But that doesn't change the fact that the bully is caught and getting disciplined. Weiner, Clinton and JFK who the caller also mentioned, are not running for president. trump is. They are going to keep bringing this up, so we have to respond. But we don't have to engage; a simple pointing out that those people are not on the ballot is enough IMO.
Totally agree that we should not engage -- BC, AW, JFK should not be part of the conversation. And I do know that legally the situations are different. I am talking politically how the voter hears it who may not be paying as much attention as we are AND/OR are NOT attorneys. I am an attorney married to a criminal defense attorney - I indeed know the difference. Worried for the many who categorize the men as one type. And that is definitely NOT Biden.
And if anyone is criticizing Joe Biden for *remarrying* I would say they are merely looking for any excuse to be anti-Biden. As long as it’s not being done Henry VIII style, it’s pretty normal for young, widowed people to remarry.
An aside, if I may: Senator Al Franken should never have been compelled to resign. That reaction was over the top; many of the accusations were untrue or exaggerated. Tragically, we Democrats lost one of our best senators that day. Betcha a lot of top Republicans were raising a celebratory toast in the back room!
Tina Smith is a perfectly good replacement, though, and she is effective. I think we overestimate sometimes how much wit and charisma can accomplish. Thankfully, the seat was never in danger of flipping back to red because the Minnesota R’s had that Bad Candidate Problem even in 2017. (And now the Democrats are in an even better position because the “Legal Marijuana Now” stooge for the Republicans party has been sent packing. After all, if Marijuana Is Legal Now, what reason does it have to exist? Thanks, Tim!)
I note this not because I think it’s wrong and bad to miss Al Franken and his presence, but to say that very few people are *truly* irreplaceable unless they are a Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown who hangs on to very hard to hold offices in swing states.
Sad and so true. We miss Al.
If people complain about prices at the gas station just ask them what they pay for a cup of coffee from Starbucks????
Or how about “get a hybrid SUV, or maybe a sedan, instead?” People who buy giant gas-guzzling monster trucks when they don’t need them to haul equipment, horses, or large dogs, and then whine about how expensive it is to keep them filled up - smdh. I’m thinking of my former next-door neighbor, who was a dermatologist (not a contractor or electrician or plumber), had no pets, and didn’t go camping. But he did have a giant Ram in his driveway. Normally I don’t care what other people spend their money on and hate scolding, but in these cases, people bring it on themselves.
For the record, I drive a non-plug-in hybrid; I don’t have a place at home to charge it and can’t entirely rely on the public network yet. But the hybrid still saves me *a ton* on gas.
Nobody likes a scold - turn a frown upside down:
....neighbor with crazy non-utilitarian thirsty vehicle whines about gas prices....
"Well, it's a sign of the times, with our record gas production and supply in America, that Americans, and people around the world, are just so prosperous they are willing to pay up so much for fuel and have big, beautiful vehicles like yours. It's really nice. It's just some of the downside of prosperity I guess."