Gregory, with all respect, if you believe the Biden-Harris Administration gave "near unconditional support for Netanyahu’s war plan", then you haven’t been paying attention.
Greg, you have no data to back this up. Please return with data about the November election if you are doing to keep up this line of discussion. If anything, we probably lost people to Republicans who are were horrified at the protests, which were deeply unpopular on campuses and with the public at large. I am open to this discourse but you are making blanket statements without data.
Greg I am going to ban you from the site unless you stop this thread. It is full of misinformation and supposition and no data. I have asked once, and you have continued.
If you are going to pursue this line you need to come back with data to back up your points, for it is not what leading authorities on this matter believe, nor does the data we have back any of this up.
Gregory, the Trump Campaign’s strategy on this issue was simple and Janus-faced. They were telling Jewish voters that Harris was "too pro-Palestinian", while loudly telling Muslim and Arab-American voters that Harris was "too pro-Israel".
Trump himself, of course, was publicly declaring that Israel "should get the job done". Benjamin Netanyahu has been doing his utmost to bring about a Trump election victory and have him return to the White House. The reason why is obvious.
And lest we forget, Trump was the President who implemented the "Muslim Ban" – except from the countries in which Trump had business dealings.
Hopefully we’ll see some updates in House races today. Ideally, OH-09 and CA-45 will be called for Marcy Kaptur and Derek Tran, respectively. And I’m also hoping Adam Gray closes the gap and moves toward victory in CA-13. That race is probably still a tossup.
"Quick update on the House math: 218 R, 212 D, 5 uncalled. #OH09 is likely a D win. #IA01 & #AKAL are likely R wins.
#CA45 has been trending D since e-night & Ds now have a tiny lead. #CA13 could go either way.
Likeliest outcome is probably 221R - 214D, followed by 220R - 215D."
NB. In the short term, we then have to subtract the seat that Matt Gaetz resigned, likewise Elise Stefanik’s seat when she leaves to become UN Ambassador, as well as any additional Republican House members that take jobs in the Trump Administration.
In short: Republicans will have to contend with a very tiny margin; up until now, this has been a recipe for chaos for them.
It's looking like we'll flip at least two seats in California with Whitesides and (hopefully) Tran. If that holds up and we loss Alaska, which is looking more likely, then we break even when it comes to the House (or if Gray pulls it out, we pick up one seat). Could have been much worse (although too the Democrats basically "lost" three house seats in NC due to gerrymandering done after the 2022 midterms.)
When are Democrats going to start getting media savvy and posting policies republicans have canceled that might have benefitted their own voters? Republican AG’s defeated Biden’s efforts to extend overtime pay for workers. Democrats need to Get that word out!
Agree! I also think the "are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" question is a bit loaded. Folks answering "no" may have been benefiting from COVID support that they associate with being provided by trump and taken away by Biden. In reality, it was Republicans who refused to continue providing that support, but it's another example of needing to get the truth out there.
I hardly think we were better off. Plus we saw daily what an idiot Trump was when a crisis hit. In addition, I am not particularly fond of people who think kidnapping children ( let's call it what it was) from their parents with no records to show where the children were taken. Do you remember seeing the children moved around into vehicles in the middle of the night? That America is not outraged makes me think less of my fellow citizens. It's all about me, me, me.
This is all correct. I think VP Harris had an extremely difficult challenge-- she didn't have enough time to both prosecute the case against Trump, as well as make the case for herself. She had to pick one, and she picked making a positive case more than the negative Trump case.
It would have been nice to see 9 months of ads where Trump was a bumbling, divisive, moronic buffoon during COVID, including directly costing people's lives. Ironically, precisely because Biden-Harris did such a great job getting us out of COVID, 2020 was not front of mind for most folks. They needed to be reminded of the level of destruction he caused by his incompetence, lying, and divisiveness. But, she only had 3.5 months.
Unfortunately, Joe is busy meeting with world leaders to secure Ukraine's safety. We need a national Democratic organization with leaders in technology, social media and economics, for example. That person sends messages to local states or at least guides states on what they may need.
Here is something Republicans are canceling that has benefited voters for decades.This needs to be amplified.The RFK Jr “movement” is already happening.Winter Haven,Fl just voted to remove fluoride from their water supply.📣
Good time to go to dental school and move to Winter Haven. I'll start buying stock in companies that make filling and cap material, as well as those who make instruments used in root canals.
Simon - Great to see you in Los Angeles on Friday! Hope that you had a great time with your daughter and got some rest. Thanks for posting the photo of the gathering. Met so many great Hopium folks in person.
I haven't watched the video yet, but I wanted to share my 20-year-old liberal son's comments. He met with four male Trump voters on Nov. 6 and interviewed them about why they voted the way they did. They all attend a large public university in the southeast.
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After Trump's win I was pretty curious as to some of the thoughts of people my age who voted for him (for reference i am 20 in college) So i called up one of my friends who I know voted for trump and managed to get Boba just a few minutes ago with four 20~ year old males who voted for Trump. I thought it was pretty interesting to hear their thoughts unfiltered as to why they made their pick and some other thoughts they had.
The economy
So one of the first things they all mentioned as to why they voted for trump was of course the economy. Their general thoughts can be broken down into a few bullets
- Prices are higher: They all mentioned how prices now are higher than they were during the Trump administration. They understood that Covid happened and that made it hard for Biden to keep prices under control, however, its been a minute since COVID-19 and inflation has still been happening in the Biden administration even though it appears Covid is over. Trump's administration had lower prices and he is promising to bring those prices back to a certain extent. They know he can't bring it down to 2019 levels because of inflation but are frustrated to see the higher bills
- The president can't control the economy: Three of the four of them mentioned to me the fact that they knew the president alone does not control the economy. They were pleased to see the House and Senate were also GOP controlled and when I asked them their expectations it was expressed to me they know politicians over-promise and under deliver but they would lose trust if the GOP does not get at least some done of what they have been claiming
- The Biden administration didn't get much done: All four expressed dissatisfaction at the Biden administration for how stagnant it feels currently.
- Drill baby Drill: They all pretty much mentioned higher gas prices but one of them specifically mentioned how important cheap energy is to a strong economy with little inflation and believed Trump would boost energy production and make it cheaper
Other things I asked them about the economy
- When asked none of them knew who Lina Khan was
- They do understand that prices cannot go back down because that is how prices work, I touched on this above
- One person specifically who I pressed on taxes said that it is hard to tax the rich as many of their assets are not in income tax but in other facets such as abusing business expenditures or getting compensation in stock, they believed this was good as it incentives startup culture in America vs other countries and allows businesses to hire people, etc which is generally good for the economy
Abortion rights and other rights on the ballot
- I am a man: Frankly, this is a sentiment I heard from them that they are men and that they get how these issues may matter more to a woman but to them, abortion isn't an issue and they are worried about other issues
- Trump can't do anything: Another sentiment I heard from them is that Roe v Wade is already retracted and a federal ban would be so deeply unpopular that it will not happen so voting Trump or not has little to no impact on abortion and isn't much of a consideration
- Christian values: One of the four guys I spoke to specifically mentioned that for him he is a Christian and he believes that life starts in the womb. He did concede that other people may have different values but those were his
- States rights: There was a general consensus that abortion should be a state's rights issue and that is what it is right now and that is perfectly fine
- Other rights (essentially LGBTQ rights): there was not much of a consensus here, one of them was just straight-up transphobic but this was generally less thought about especially when compared to abortion
Other things I found interesting
- One of them mentioned that they would be perfectly happy to vote a women or person of color for president and this was not their issue with Harris. They all happily agreed with this and chimed in their agreement which I found interesting
Democracy is on the line
- Trump is not going to destroy democracy: Pretty much all of them thought the rhetoric that Trump is going to destroy democracy was false and overblown.
- Surprised that trump won the popular vote: While they of course wanted Trump to win they were quite happily surprised that Trump won the popular vote and pretty much blew Harris out of the water.
- Harris was also a threat to democracy: All four were in consensus that it was unfair that Harris was just picked to run for president and that there was no primary. They also conceded that this was probably due to Biden dropping out of the race late and that Harris would have likely been the candidate anyway. It did feel unfair to them that only Trump has been called out to as a threat to democracy when they thought Harris joining last second was also pretty unfair.
Foreign policy
- Stop the wars: All of them were displeased with our meddling overseas with Ukraine and Israel and hope that Trump can stop the killing and wars there in a way the Biden/Harris administration has not been able to.
- Trump is a tough guy: This was specifically mentioned by one of them but the rest agreed. Trump is strong and is seen as so overseas and so China and Russia are less likely to mess with us or others.
- Stop the spending: They all thought we are spending too much money on wars we see nothing from and there is no need for us to front this bill
Trump is only the president
- Trump has his pitfalls: All four of them agree that Trump has his issues especially character-wise but the president alone does not have much power to get stuff done and even with the GOP controlling the House and Senate as well he will be kept in place and can't do anything super crazy
- Trump's tax proposal is a bad idea: This is specifically his one where he mentioned removing all income tax and hiking tariffs to 100%, they recognized this is a terrible idea but also did not think it mattered as the other branches of government would prevent this from happening
Climate change: I specifically brought this issue up to hear their thoughts
- Climate change is real: Almost all of them agreed that climate change is real and man made, one tried to refute this by saying the climate has always changed on the planet and this claim was quickly refuted by the other three.
- We are cooked (literally): They all recognized that our burning of fossil fuels is an issue that we need to fix
They honestly did not have many more thoughts on climate change but they did very readily admit it was a problem it just did not seem to be their top issue at all.
general other thoughts they had
- Frustration at their peers: Much of what they voiced to me is their frustration at many of their friends and peers ostracizing them or getting mad at them because they voted for Trump. To them, this is a political decision and it is frustrating to lose friends over it. Keep in mind I am a 20-year-old in uni and so are they
- Do not care about immigration: Honestly, none of them really had thoughts on immigration or had it in their radar as a concern for this election. This is probably due to my location
Now keep in mind these are only the thoughts I got of four people I talked to today, I may have also misrepresented some of their claims accidentally. That was not my goal but I wasn't taking notes or anything. I overall just thought this was pretty interesting so I would share it here.
IMHO all a pretext for hatred of "the other." Psyops is effective.
Still waiting to hear about validity of the Palast claim that 2.7 million votes were ditched. According to the Philly papers, where a hand recount is taking place, we lost Pa in Biden's home area, former Biden supporters. Not Gen Z. Not Blacks. Lost 2 Pa Dem house seats.
I wish he was. His claims may well be correct or partially correct. I’m not saying he’s necessarily wrong; that’s not the issue. However, it’s sad that he doesn’t honor his claims and his audience with quality-controlled evidence.
This was my big frustration with the two books by Palast that I read. I expect better research, better journalism, and far-better references to sources!
Interesting. I am often confused bc doesn't seem to do follow up on his claims. I just accepted what he said bc he seemed to be taken seriously and I thought it was above my pay grade when no follow up afterwards happens.
Thank you Elizabeth and many thanks to your son!! It is so important to have discussions with young people. I realize now that the election is over, that I thought my bubble was much smaller than I realized. I’m guessing my algorithm was sending the positive vibes of like minded people. I’m going to make it a point to talk to my kids’ friends and young people. Again thank you for sharing!! 💙😊
I just spoke with a neighbor so I didn't not push anything. I asked if she was surprised that he won and she said that she knew he would, and said I guess you were right lightly!! I then made a comment about maybe its time for us to start learning Russian, jokingly. And she said, 'I don't think we need to worry in our lifetime, but possible in the future. I guess we need to wait and see,' happily. I was just astonished.
I still can not believe what I just read. "I am a man"????? Their 10 year old sisters get raped, and pregnant, they will say, "Well, sis, carry the rapist's baby to terms. I am a man". Their mother or aunt will get sepsis or can not get uterus or cervical cancer care and they will say, "Well, I am a man. You are on your own". Who raised these things? If our planet's future really depend on these young men, we are beyond doomed. My husband just remarked, "Who will marry these people?"
By the way, my hats off to your son for not punching their faces.
Yes. Watch the video of the interview with John Della Volpe! He talks about the male 18-24 year-old demographic being unlikely to have relationships/ marriages. [Women of that age group are more likely to, which must mean they are partnering with (somewhat) older men. ]
Oh, my God. Talk about misinformed. In fact, Dr. Allan Lichtman said misinformation was what killed Kamala Harris's chances of being elected. How do we get through to these people?
If you find the answer, please let us know. I just ate a whole bunch of small almond cookies all at once. I do not eat sugary stuff at all. I am soooo upset after reading these 4 "mens'" answers.
I agree! These young men either didn’t know or care about, or frankly just dismissed the threat Trump poses to democracy. They’re delighted that he will have a unified government so he can fulfill his promises…do they actually know what “promises” he will now fulfill that will make their very own lives, and the lives of their friends and family horrifically painful for the forseeable future? Their lack of care about the women in their lives is awful, and by they way, they lied when they said Harris’ race and gender didn’t matter. Sorry, I’m just not sure how you get through to folks like this - and there are a lot of them.
Some encouraging things, some concerning things. Lots of motivated reasoning, and a few glaring contradictions. Fair amount of parroting of things on X or other RW media, so I'm not surprised. Great exercise in doing this, though.
The good news is, there are easy answers to every one of their points. If that is really representative of how they think, there is room to change their minds.
I wouldn't immediately trust their answers on electing a woman/AA woman. Not through any fault of theirs, but very few people other than outward racists are going to admit it.
My take away is that the "news" these young men get is controlled by algorithms, that give permission to think and behave a certain way. The danger of giving up in disgust is that we cannot allow our personal lives to be controlled by siloed thinking; the electronic algorithms already do that. My guess is that these kids have not heard the stories of their aunts who had ectopic pregnancies, of their cousins who were raped, of their friends who have been in controlling relationships. They need to hear these stories. They need to be taken out of their bubble.
My point in sharing my son's write up was not just for the purpose of Monday morning quarterbacking. That's only useful if we learn from it. I agree with you, REP2112, that these guys show capacity for nuanced thoughts, but they are ignorant. And it is dangerous to leave out whole swaths of the public because we disagree with them or are disgusted by their viewpoints. We need to figure out how to get these important stories in their lives, first through personal interactions (always better) and secondly through the media. Both are going to be challenging.
And yes, I'm a proud mom. My son is one of those rare people who can talk to people with whom he vehemently disagrees without losing his cool or make them feel stupid. I have a lot to learn from him!
This is really interesting input your son gathered. I see a few themes in what the young Trump voters (all men) told him:
--They are naïve when it comes to thinking that a GOP controlled Congress will exercise much restraint on Trump regarding his crazy economic ideas and his authoritarian designs. I guess they just haven’t seen for a long enough time how the GOP has completely given in to him.
--Their lack of interest in Trump’s harsh immigration rhetoric and deportation plans, and their dismissal of abortion rights because “I’m a man” show a lack of compassion and appreciation of the big picture that may not be surprising in some young men.
--Their agreement that Trump is a “tough guy” who will better deal with China and Russia is a hard one to explain. He “plays” a tough guy, but they clearly don’t appreciate that he worships other dictators, that they play him like a fiddle, and that he’s basically a Russian asset.
--The Biden administration “didn’t get much done” and Trump will enhance oil and gas production are clearly the result of either not seeking out the facts, or being misled by right-wing media.
All of these young men’s misperceptions are, fortunately, subject to change over time as they age and as the Trump Shit Show reveals itself to them in his second administration. I thought it was noteworthy in John Della Volpe’s interview with Simon that he said 18-24-year-olds, who had not been as aware of Trump’s administration, voted for him at higher rates than 25-29-year-olds, who were already of voting age during his disastrous first administration.
And in other good news, in the North Carolina Supreme Court Election, Allison Riggs has increased her lead by 42% – in other words, she now leads by 34 votes instead of just 24 votes! Truly, every vote counts!
To put that in perspective, this is a 0.00065% advantage after 5,538,970 votes have been counted.
Which again raises the issue of "Bullet ballots". If the down vote turned out well for Dems, but the margin of the win by Trump was excessive, don't we owe it to our democracy to ask for a recount??
In the NC Supreme Court race there will be a recount – but not because we ask for it. Allison Riggs is the judge favored by Democrats, and so far she is winning! Because of the tiny margins, there will be a recount.
Hopium Chronicles - What's Next? How to Cut the Head Off the Snake Worldwide
FITNESS FOR DUTY EVALUATIONS that are mandatory, like the military for high responsibility positions, would have stopped Trump before he got within a mile of the White House. True for every dictator, authoritarian, and oligarch worldwide.
Bandy X Lee, Steven Hassan, and 100 other psychiatrists agree Trump has five dangerous mental illnesses as listed in the books "The More Dangerous Case of Donald Trump" and "The Psychology Of Trump Contagion - An Existential Threat to American Democracy and All Humankind".
In one fell swoop, Fitness for Duty Evaluations worldwide, stops every dictator, authoritarian, and oligarch.
"Containing Trump Contagion and Healing from Mental Pathology in Politics"
Hi Lonnie, Trump's mental decline and personality disorders were well covered during the election. The sociopathic narcissist with dementia won the election. More than 75 million voters knew they were voting for the authoritarian with a list of mental disorders. I don't understand why people voted for him, but does highlighting his mental state further hold any prospect of being a winning issue?
The military has mandatory Fitness for Duty Evaluations for high responsibility positions like Commanders of aircraft carriers. Fail and that individual is disqualified for that position.
Every American deserves annd must DEMAND all individuals in authority pass Fitness for Duty Evaluations.
I'm reading "On Tyranny".by Timothy Snyder. What we all do grows freedom. Very good.
🔸️Do not obey In advance🔸️Defend institutions🔸️Beware the one-party state🔸️Take responsibility for the face of the world🔸️Remember professional ethics🔸️Be wary of paramilitaries🔸️Be reflective if you must be armed🔸️Stand out🔸️Be kind to our language🔸️Believe in truth🔸️Investigate🔸️Make eye contact and small talk🔸️Practice corporeal politics🔸️Establish a private life🔸️Contribute to good causes🔸️Learn from peers in other countries🔸️Listen for dangerous words🔸️Be calm when the unthinkable arrives🔸️Be a patriot🔸️Be as courageous as you can
Hi All, What can the Democrats do to gain ground in rural America? Surely defence of democracy, concern over a changing climate etc are issues that resonate with those living and working in rural areas? Gaining ground in rural counties will help support the 2026 Blue Wave. Grateful for any thoughts - thank you, Russ.
Russell, I’ve recently discovered Jess Piper. She has some interesting thoughts from her experience as a rural organizer in Missouri. Here’s a recent newsletter:
If Trump enacts his threatened tariffs, that is really going to hurt American farmers: pricier equipment if it’s foreign-made or contains foreign parts, and greatly-reduced income if they’re reliant on exports.
Democrats must repeatedly and very loudly blame Trump and his policies for this pain to rural America.
And if it happens (I hope it doesn't, as it would be very hard on folks), Dems need to shed the whole "above the fray, let's work on solutions; head down, work to fix the problem" BS. They need to go into those communities, and go on those podcasts, and make sure everyone knows about it. They need to invite people who've been hurt to town halls or 1:1 interviews and make sure that stuff goes viral. Work on solutions 100% in parallel, but make sure you amplify the pain it is causing in real time.
Remembering Jefferson, and thinking about “Leon”. One man helped create the Union. The other is trying to disassemble it. Almost 250 years from the Declaration, it seems that one Founder foreshadowed another type of founder. Bloomberg calls this short piece, “American Oligarch”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FMu4NjoR9U. Professor Tim Snyder has a similar take on his Substack. They probably could have done the same piece in October (just an observation).
“INDEED I TREMBLE FOR MY COUNTRY WHEN I REFLECT THAT GOD IS JUST; THAT HIS JUSTICE CANNOT SLEEP FOREVER…” This is the most famous pull quote from Jefferson’s “Notes on the State of Virginia” (1784). If you guessed that Jefferson was referencing America’s original sin, you would be correct. With this information, one could understand the need in specific states for book bans and revised curricula (with new and improved textbooks). History can be quite inconvenient.
John Della Volpe's substack article is a fascinating read, thanks Simon. I wonder if it makes some conclusions that we shouldn't make, such as Democrats not being good enough on certain issues, when really it was as simple as young voters just voting for change on that issue. Example: 59% said they want to stop aid to Israel but a majority said Trump was better on Middle East issues. My hunch based on the data on historical incumbent performances (and this year being the first EVER that every incumbent party in western democracies lost voter share) is that they just wanted change. And if it had been Trump who was the incumbent, they would have favored Kamala on this issue. I do strongly agree that Dems need to focus more on practical matters. I also think the big reason for the rightward shift in young men is they see Dems (us) as primarily focused on "woke" issues above everything else. These issues, or at least the perceived PRIMARY FOCUS ON THEM, doesn't resonate with them. This alienates them. People vote for the party they feel is like them, and "woke" makes young men want to look elsewhere for a home (even if wrongly). It's not a logical thing; it's a feeling. They also equate this with "freedom of speech" - which we don't - they think of the ability to say what they've always said their entire lives (again, even if wrongly) without someone immediately jumping down their throat, as freedom of speech. They feel exhausted from constantly walking on eggshells with how they talk.
Yes, agree with much of this. Kamala had a nearly impossible mission. In about 3.5 months, she had to switch the election from being a referendum on Biden to a choice between her and Trump (i.e., separate herself from being an incumbent, because incumbency was a big disadvantage almost world-wide).
Agree with you on woke-ness stuff, too. This is a product of the RW media machine. Kamala and Walz hardly ever mentioned anything regarding woke-ness. Even Sam Harris, whom I respect tremendously and who is as anti-woke as anyone on the right, thought VP Harris did a great job of not getting wrapped up in that nonsense.
But, the RW media machine absolutely deluged their audiences with exactly the message you're talking about (Dems are all woke, all the time). Highly effective, because even I and my wife, not being in that age group anymore and being solid left-leaners, are freakin' sick of it.
Heck, my 14-YO daughter is a high school athlete, so she definitely doesn't like the idea of physiological boys competing against physiological girls. She's 100% for live and let live, and has gay friends and knows trans people. None of that woke stuff crosses her mind except that she is annoyed when someone makes a big deal out of it.
100%. I'd also say that it's not just the RW media blowing it up larger than it is. There is truth to it. I see it constantly among my friends and family (all Dems). If we really think honestly, the first prism that we put most of our thoughts through is some form of, is this racist/sexist/colonialist/etc? Did something happen with this 200 years ago that was racist and thus we can't celebrate it? And young men are sick of it unfortunately, but we have to be practical/realistic if we want to win. We can stop the constant policing of peoples' words when they make mistakes and instead of attacking them in a mean spirited way, teach them how to be better, slowly over time. My wife has done it for me. My high school friends who all voted Trump haven't had someone do that for them, they've only had people attack them and shout "racist!" at them, and surprise surprise that drives them away. Many of them hated GW Bush as much as I did. Ironically our mean spirited attacking of people who don't talk correctly just leads to us not being able to accomplish our objectives in regards to equality etc because we don't win as many elections as we could. People aren't perfect and we can't expect them to be. Especially not the huge chunk of non-intellectual testosterone filled young men whose whole life is about proving to their peers that they are the alpha (and this is natural, we must accept it)
Yes-- agree here, too. Some Dems make enemies out of people who could be allies. All because of small deviations from a perceived "north star" of universal acceptance and righteousness. They don't seem to realize that acceptance runs both ways.
I think what I meant to say is RW media has a huge role in amplifying Dems' flubbing on woke-ness. When any Dem does something ridiculous (and, to your point, there is a lot of ridiculousness) on that front, it travels far and wide and is a topic for a full two weeks in their networks. So, it is shooting ourselves in the foot, but the RW media machine takes a minor toe wound and makes it a grenade that blows off everything below the shin :-)
Harris-Walz did a very good job of avoiding the trap. But, guilt by association...
The Republicans introduced HR9495 the Stop Terror-Financing and Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act, which seems like a good idea on the surface. But the MAGA's instead new language (sec 4) which would give Trump's Secretary of Treasury unchecked authority to declare any non-profit organization that opposes them, or that they don't like, a terror-supporting organization and take away their tax-exempt status. The Republicans tried to fast-track the bill last week and it failed to get the required 2/3 majority votes. They are reintroducing the Bill this week, and it will require only a simple majority. I encourage all the Hokum community to contact their representatives to vote no on this dangerous vote.
Congressman Gabe Vasquez (D NM-2) actually voted for the bill. Organizations like BlueCD2 and Indivisible NM mounted a campaign for calls to the Congressman to change his vote. We learned this morning he will change his vote. Lesson is Speak Up and Speak Loud and we will be heard
I wonder too about the shifts rightward in John's data for groups like Latino men and Ann Arbor youth. Were these shifts just as a percentage of a lower voter pool? Because Trump barely got more votes than he did in 2020. That means he didn't grow his coalition. Maybe the rightward shift is just a function of fewer young Latino men and fewer Ann Arbor youth turning out?
Sun Sentinel reporting that repubs will cut medicaid and food stamps to pay for billiionaire/corp tax gift! this will hurt a lot of people. and repub voters. if true, dems need to plaster this everywhere and now before it happens.
After reading the newsletter, I am still of the belief, the youth/young man vote went the way of the macho type with the incessant pummeling of the dis-information & lies. I could have accepted that the youth vote is this new unaffiliated/thinking voter if it were not for their thinking Donald is a good leader. That tells me they are still being influenced by the dis-information, etc, etc.
I am with Claudia. These young men you-know-who voters are not innocent lambs. They were not blank slates that the right wing got to first. They carry sexist and racist mindsets that they received first hand and probably transgenerationally. The Della Volpe presentation pointed to how the voting went. A good presentation. However, we cannot ignore the elephant, bigotry, in the room. Republicans did not and it is why they massaged on it and have since the 1980's maybe earlier. And the point made about ignoring black women I have seen several places now. I ask, is not this racism in our own mist? It is a place where we can definitely engage and likely make major gains. It appears to me as a big red flag when black women feel ignored when our candidate was a women of color. What was going on? Persons in our party should be way easier to engage with than young white racist males. I would say we have an obligation to repent rapidly from any ignoring.
And Trump would be better on Gaza? With Muslims. Please. It was inflation and the constant Fox drumbeat that beat Harris.
Gregory, with all respect, if you believe the Biden-Harris Administration gave "near unconditional support for Netanyahu’s war plan", then you haven’t been paying attention.
Greg, you have no data to back this up. Please return with data about the November election if you are doing to keep up this line of discussion. If anything, we probably lost people to Republicans who are were horrified at the protests, which were deeply unpopular on campuses and with the public at large. I am open to this discourse but you are making blanket statements without data.
Greg I am going to ban you from the site unless you stop this thread. It is full of misinformation and supposition and no data. I have asked once, and you have continued.
If you are going to pursue this line you need to come back with data to back up your points, for it is not what leading authorities on this matter believe, nor does the data we have back any of this up.
Hi Simon, happy to end it. My apologies. I appreciate the forum. Thanks. Greg
Gregory, the Trump Campaign’s strategy on this issue was simple and Janus-faced. They were telling Jewish voters that Harris was "too pro-Palestinian", while loudly telling Muslim and Arab-American voters that Harris was "too pro-Israel".
Trump himself, of course, was publicly declaring that Israel "should get the job done". Benjamin Netanyahu has been doing his utmost to bring about a Trump election victory and have him return to the White House. The reason why is obvious.
And lest we forget, Trump was the President who implemented the "Muslim Ban" – except from the countries in which Trump had business dealings.
My comment today is Derek Tran! Yay us. Not quite there for sure, but it is looking hopeful!
Hopefully we’ll see some updates in House races today. Ideally, OH-09 and CA-45 will be called for Marcy Kaptur and Derek Tran, respectively. And I’m also hoping Adam Gray closes the gap and moves toward victory in CA-13. That race is probably still a tossup.
What does it put us in terms of total house seats?
The Downballot writes:
"Quick update on the House math: 218 R, 212 D, 5 uncalled. #OH09 is likely a D win. #IA01 & #AKAL are likely R wins.
#CA45 has been trending D since e-night & Ds now have a tiny lead. #CA13 could go either way.
Likeliest outcome is probably 221R - 214D, followed by 220R - 215D."
NB. In the short term, we then have to subtract the seat that Matt Gaetz resigned, likewise Elise Stefanik’s seat when she leaves to become UN Ambassador, as well as any additional Republican House members that take jobs in the Trump Administration.
In short: Republicans will have to contend with a very tiny margin; up until now, this has been a recipe for chaos for them.
It's looking like we'll flip at least two seats in California with Whitesides and (hopefully) Tran. If that holds up and we loss Alaska, which is looking more likely, then we break even when it comes to the House (or if Gray pulls it out, we pick up one seat). Could have been much worse (although too the Democrats basically "lost" three house seats in NC due to gerrymandering done after the 2022 midterms.)
Is Alaska ranked choice?
Yes, for now (it looks like voters approved ending RCV after this election).
Nick Begich has about a 9,000 vote lead over Mary Peltola after initial ballots were counted, but he didn't get the 50% necessary to not go to RCV.
Peltola could still win in RCV, but she'd have to overperform by a substantial margin, so likely Begich is the winner.
I just read Peltola will benefit from RCV. Forgot where though.
Thanks.
When are Democrats going to start getting media savvy and posting policies republicans have canceled that might have benefitted their own voters? Republican AG’s defeated Biden’s efforts to extend overtime pay for workers. Democrats need to Get that word out!
Agree! I also think the "are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" question is a bit loaded. Folks answering "no" may have been benefiting from COVID support that they associate with being provided by trump and taken away by Biden. In reality, it was Republicans who refused to continue providing that support, but it's another example of needing to get the truth out there.
I hardly think we were better off. Plus we saw daily what an idiot Trump was when a crisis hit. In addition, I am not particularly fond of people who think kidnapping children ( let's call it what it was) from their parents with no records to show where the children were taken. Do you remember seeing the children moved around into vehicles in the middle of the night? That America is not outraged makes me think less of my fellow citizens. It's all about me, me, me.
This is all correct. I think VP Harris had an extremely difficult challenge-- she didn't have enough time to both prosecute the case against Trump, as well as make the case for herself. She had to pick one, and she picked making a positive case more than the negative Trump case.
It would have been nice to see 9 months of ads where Trump was a bumbling, divisive, moronic buffoon during COVID, including directly costing people's lives. Ironically, precisely because Biden-Harris did such a great job getting us out of COVID, 2020 was not front of mind for most folks. They needed to be reminded of the level of destruction he caused by his incompetence, lying, and divisiveness. But, she only had 3.5 months.
Unfortunately, Joe is busy meeting with world leaders to secure Ukraine's safety. We need a national Democratic organization with leaders in technology, social media and economics, for example. That person sends messages to local states or at least guides states on what they may need.
Here is something Republicans are canceling that has benefited voters for decades.This needs to be amplified.The RFK Jr “movement” is already happening.Winter Haven,Fl just voted to remove fluoride from their water supply.📣
https://www.axios.com/local/tampa-bay/2024/11/15/winter-haven-rfk-trump-fluoride-water
OMG
Good time to go to dental school and move to Winter Haven. I'll start buying stock in companies that make filling and cap material, as well as those who make instruments used in root canals.
My 32 year old son has had one cavity in his life. By his age, though I took better care of my teeth, I had lost about 4- possibly more.
I appreciate the sentiment but who is going to be able to afford to go to the dentist?
Simon - Great to see you in Los Angeles on Friday! Hope that you had a great time with your daughter and got some rest. Thanks for posting the photo of the gathering. Met so many great Hopium folks in person.
I haven't watched the video yet, but I wanted to share my 20-year-old liberal son's comments. He met with four male Trump voters on Nov. 6 and interviewed them about why they voted the way they did. They all attend a large public university in the southeast.
--
After Trump's win I was pretty curious as to some of the thoughts of people my age who voted for him (for reference i am 20 in college) So i called up one of my friends who I know voted for trump and managed to get Boba just a few minutes ago with four 20~ year old males who voted for Trump. I thought it was pretty interesting to hear their thoughts unfiltered as to why they made their pick and some other thoughts they had.
The economy
So one of the first things they all mentioned as to why they voted for trump was of course the economy. Their general thoughts can be broken down into a few bullets
- Prices are higher: They all mentioned how prices now are higher than they were during the Trump administration. They understood that Covid happened and that made it hard for Biden to keep prices under control, however, its been a minute since COVID-19 and inflation has still been happening in the Biden administration even though it appears Covid is over. Trump's administration had lower prices and he is promising to bring those prices back to a certain extent. They know he can't bring it down to 2019 levels because of inflation but are frustrated to see the higher bills
- The president can't control the economy: Three of the four of them mentioned to me the fact that they knew the president alone does not control the economy. They were pleased to see the House and Senate were also GOP controlled and when I asked them their expectations it was expressed to me they know politicians over-promise and under deliver but they would lose trust if the GOP does not get at least some done of what they have been claiming
- The Biden administration didn't get much done: All four expressed dissatisfaction at the Biden administration for how stagnant it feels currently.
- Drill baby Drill: They all pretty much mentioned higher gas prices but one of them specifically mentioned how important cheap energy is to a strong economy with little inflation and believed Trump would boost energy production and make it cheaper
Other things I asked them about the economy
- When asked none of them knew who Lina Khan was
- They do understand that prices cannot go back down because that is how prices work, I touched on this above
- One person specifically who I pressed on taxes said that it is hard to tax the rich as many of their assets are not in income tax but in other facets such as abusing business expenditures or getting compensation in stock, they believed this was good as it incentives startup culture in America vs other countries and allows businesses to hire people, etc which is generally good for the economy
Abortion rights and other rights on the ballot
- I am a man: Frankly, this is a sentiment I heard from them that they are men and that they get how these issues may matter more to a woman but to them, abortion isn't an issue and they are worried about other issues
- Trump can't do anything: Another sentiment I heard from them is that Roe v Wade is already retracted and a federal ban would be so deeply unpopular that it will not happen so voting Trump or not has little to no impact on abortion and isn't much of a consideration
- Christian values: One of the four guys I spoke to specifically mentioned that for him he is a Christian and he believes that life starts in the womb. He did concede that other people may have different values but those were his
- States rights: There was a general consensus that abortion should be a state's rights issue and that is what it is right now and that is perfectly fine
- Other rights (essentially LGBTQ rights): there was not much of a consensus here, one of them was just straight-up transphobic but this was generally less thought about especially when compared to abortion
Other things I found interesting
- One of them mentioned that they would be perfectly happy to vote a women or person of color for president and this was not their issue with Harris. They all happily agreed with this and chimed in their agreement which I found interesting
Democracy is on the line
- Trump is not going to destroy democracy: Pretty much all of them thought the rhetoric that Trump is going to destroy democracy was false and overblown.
- Surprised that trump won the popular vote: While they of course wanted Trump to win they were quite happily surprised that Trump won the popular vote and pretty much blew Harris out of the water.
- Harris was also a threat to democracy: All four were in consensus that it was unfair that Harris was just picked to run for president and that there was no primary. They also conceded that this was probably due to Biden dropping out of the race late and that Harris would have likely been the candidate anyway. It did feel unfair to them that only Trump has been called out to as a threat to democracy when they thought Harris joining last second was also pretty unfair.
Foreign policy
- Stop the wars: All of them were displeased with our meddling overseas with Ukraine and Israel and hope that Trump can stop the killing and wars there in a way the Biden/Harris administration has not been able to.
- Trump is a tough guy: This was specifically mentioned by one of them but the rest agreed. Trump is strong and is seen as so overseas and so China and Russia are less likely to mess with us or others.
- Stop the spending: They all thought we are spending too much money on wars we see nothing from and there is no need for us to front this bill
Trump is only the president
- Trump has his pitfalls: All four of them agree that Trump has his issues especially character-wise but the president alone does not have much power to get stuff done and even with the GOP controlling the House and Senate as well he will be kept in place and can't do anything super crazy
- Trump's tax proposal is a bad idea: This is specifically his one where he mentioned removing all income tax and hiking tariffs to 100%, they recognized this is a terrible idea but also did not think it mattered as the other branches of government would prevent this from happening
Climate change: I specifically brought this issue up to hear their thoughts
- Climate change is real: Almost all of them agreed that climate change is real and man made, one tried to refute this by saying the climate has always changed on the planet and this claim was quickly refuted by the other three.
- We are cooked (literally): They all recognized that our burning of fossil fuels is an issue that we need to fix
They honestly did not have many more thoughts on climate change but they did very readily admit it was a problem it just did not seem to be their top issue at all.
general other thoughts they had
- Frustration at their peers: Much of what they voiced to me is their frustration at many of their friends and peers ostracizing them or getting mad at them because they voted for Trump. To them, this is a political decision and it is frustrating to lose friends over it. Keep in mind I am a 20-year-old in uni and so are they
- Do not care about immigration: Honestly, none of them really had thoughts on immigration or had it in their radar as a concern for this election. This is probably due to my location
Now keep in mind these are only the thoughts I got of four people I talked to today, I may have also misrepresented some of their claims accidentally. That was not my goal but I wasn't taking notes or anything. I overall just thought this was pretty interesting so I would share it here.
Your son is awesome
IMHO all a pretext for hatred of "the other." Psyops is effective.
Still waiting to hear about validity of the Palast claim that 2.7 million votes were ditched. According to the Philly papers, where a hand recount is taking place, we lost Pa in Biden's home area, former Biden supporters. Not Gen Z. Not Blacks. Lost 2 Pa Dem house seats.
I presume that later this week Greg Palast will prove:
1) That 2.7 million votes were really discarded, with breakdown by state
2) That rejection of these votes / provisional votes was improper.
Let me rephrase that: The big question is who will provide their evidence first – Greg Palast or Mike Lindell?
Yeah Palast is not to be trusted.
I wish he was. His claims may well be correct or partially correct. I’m not saying he’s necessarily wrong; that’s not the issue. However, it’s sad that he doesn’t honor his claims and his audience with quality-controlled evidence.
This was my big frustration with the two books by Palast that I read. I expect better research, better journalism, and far-better references to sources!
Interesting. I am often confused bc doesn't seem to do follow up on his claims. I just accepted what he said bc he seemed to be taken seriously and I thought it was above my pay grade when no follow up afterwards happens.
Just saw this. https://substack.com/inbox/post/151721941?r=1nic41&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
Thank you Elizabeth and many thanks to your son!! It is so important to have discussions with young people. I realize now that the election is over, that I thought my bubble was much smaller than I realized. I’m guessing my algorithm was sending the positive vibes of like minded people. I’m going to make it a point to talk to my kids’ friends and young people. Again thank you for sharing!! 💙😊
Thank you. We are listening
I just spoke with a neighbor so I didn't not push anything. I asked if she was surprised that he won and she said that she knew he would, and said I guess you were right lightly!! I then made a comment about maybe its time for us to start learning Russian, jokingly. And she said, 'I don't think we need to worry in our lifetime, but possible in the future. I guess we need to wait and see,' happily. I was just astonished.
ваш сосед – настоящий патриот!
What did you say? 🤓 My friend has degrees in Russian. ;-]
Are you a spy? 🕵️🧐 🤔😌
LOL. Just a simple Google Translate (via DuckDuckGo.com), which may be completely off the mark. :)
(If anything, I’m a Norwegian spy. And translator.)
He was a true patriot, for whom service was the ultimate mission.
Other languages can be much more concise in their expressions than our English. Hebrew is like that as well.
I forgot to mention that she said: "Everyone deserves a chance," regarding the criminal approaching office.
So they just flat out lied. As a 31 year educator I am not surprised. There's a reason they have been ostracized.
I still can not believe what I just read. "I am a man"????? Their 10 year old sisters get raped, and pregnant, they will say, "Well, sis, carry the rapist's baby to terms. I am a man". Their mother or aunt will get sepsis or can not get uterus or cervical cancer care and they will say, "Well, I am a man. You are on your own". Who raised these things? If our planet's future really depend on these young men, we are beyond doomed. My husband just remarked, "Who will marry these people?"
By the way, my hats off to your son for not punching their faces.
Yes. Watch the video of the interview with John Della Volpe! He talks about the male 18-24 year-old demographic being unlikely to have relationships/ marriages. [Women of that age group are more likely to, which must mean they are partnering with (somewhat) older men. ]
No surprise, really. At that age, many of them are still immature.
Oh, my God. Talk about misinformed. In fact, Dr. Allan Lichtman said misinformation was what killed Kamala Harris's chances of being elected. How do we get through to these people?
If you find the answer, please let us know. I just ate a whole bunch of small almond cookies all at once. I do not eat sugary stuff at all. I am soooo upset after reading these 4 "mens'" answers.
Well, I just chewed on my nails - I have biscottis. I should go get them and eat them all instead.
I agree! These young men either didn’t know or care about, or frankly just dismissed the threat Trump poses to democracy. They’re delighted that he will have a unified government so he can fulfill his promises…do they actually know what “promises” he will now fulfill that will make their very own lives, and the lives of their friends and family horrifically painful for the forseeable future? Their lack of care about the women in their lives is awful, and by they way, they lied when they said Harris’ race and gender didn’t matter. Sorry, I’m just not sure how you get through to folks like this - and there are a lot of them.
Agree 💯
Some encouraging things, some concerning things. Lots of motivated reasoning, and a few glaring contradictions. Fair amount of parroting of things on X or other RW media, so I'm not surprised. Great exercise in doing this, though.
The good news is, there are easy answers to every one of their points. If that is really representative of how they think, there is room to change their minds.
I wouldn't immediately trust their answers on electing a woman/AA woman. Not through any fault of theirs, but very few people other than outward racists are going to admit it.
My take away is that the "news" these young men get is controlled by algorithms, that give permission to think and behave a certain way. The danger of giving up in disgust is that we cannot allow our personal lives to be controlled by siloed thinking; the electronic algorithms already do that. My guess is that these kids have not heard the stories of their aunts who had ectopic pregnancies, of their cousins who were raped, of their friends who have been in controlling relationships. They need to hear these stories. They need to be taken out of their bubble.
My point in sharing my son's write up was not just for the purpose of Monday morning quarterbacking. That's only useful if we learn from it. I agree with you, REP2112, that these guys show capacity for nuanced thoughts, but they are ignorant. And it is dangerous to leave out whole swaths of the public because we disagree with them or are disgusted by their viewpoints. We need to figure out how to get these important stories in their lives, first through personal interactions (always better) and secondly through the media. Both are going to be challenging.
And yes, I'm a proud mom. My son is one of those rare people who can talk to people with whom he vehemently disagrees without losing his cool or make them feel stupid. I have a lot to learn from him!
"My son is one of those rare people who can talk to people with whom he vehemently disagrees without losing his cool or make them feel stupid."
Kudos to him! Maybe he has a future in politics!
This is really interesting input your son gathered. I see a few themes in what the young Trump voters (all men) told him:
--They are naïve when it comes to thinking that a GOP controlled Congress will exercise much restraint on Trump regarding his crazy economic ideas and his authoritarian designs. I guess they just haven’t seen for a long enough time how the GOP has completely given in to him.
--Their lack of interest in Trump’s harsh immigration rhetoric and deportation plans, and their dismissal of abortion rights because “I’m a man” show a lack of compassion and appreciation of the big picture that may not be surprising in some young men.
--Their agreement that Trump is a “tough guy” who will better deal with China and Russia is a hard one to explain. He “plays” a tough guy, but they clearly don’t appreciate that he worships other dictators, that they play him like a fiddle, and that he’s basically a Russian asset.
--The Biden administration “didn’t get much done” and Trump will enhance oil and gas production are clearly the result of either not seeking out the facts, or being misled by right-wing media.
All of these young men’s misperceptions are, fortunately, subject to change over time as they age and as the Trump Shit Show reveals itself to them in his second administration. I thought it was noteworthy in John Della Volpe’s interview with Simon that he said 18-24-year-olds, who had not been as aware of Trump’s administration, voted for him at higher rates than 25-29-year-olds, who were already of voting age during his disastrous first administration.
And in other good news, in the North Carolina Supreme Court Election, Allison Riggs has increased her lead by 42% – in other words, she now leads by 34 votes instead of just 24 votes! Truly, every vote counts!
To put that in perspective, this is a 0.00065% advantage after 5,538,970 votes have been counted.
Per Taniel on Bluesky, her lead is over 600 now. It’s looking really good for her now.
Which again raises the issue of "Bullet ballots". If the down vote turned out well for Dems, but the margin of the win by Trump was excessive, don't we owe it to our democracy to ask for a recount??
In the NC Supreme Court race there will be a recount – but not because we ask for it. Allison Riggs is the judge favored by Democrats, and so far she is winning! Because of the tiny margins, there will be a recount.
Young people spent Covid on social media.
Hopium Chronicles - What's Next? How to Cut the Head Off the Snake Worldwide
FITNESS FOR DUTY EVALUATIONS that are mandatory, like the military for high responsibility positions, would have stopped Trump before he got within a mile of the White House. True for every dictator, authoritarian, and oligarch worldwide.
Bandy X Lee, Steven Hassan, and 100 other psychiatrists agree Trump has five dangerous mental illnesses as listed in the books "The More Dangerous Case of Donald Trump" and "The Psychology Of Trump Contagion - An Existential Threat to American Democracy and All Humankind".
In one fell swoop, Fitness for Duty Evaluations worldwide, stops every dictator, authoritarian, and oligarch.
"Containing Trump Contagion and Healing from Mental Pathology in Politics"
https://youtu.be/HTkCqU5LM-k?si=f6g0PolglC21w1nR
Hi Lonnie, Trump's mental decline and personality disorders were well covered during the election. The sociopathic narcissist with dementia won the election. More than 75 million voters knew they were voting for the authoritarian with a list of mental disorders. I don't understand why people voted for him, but does highlighting his mental state further hold any prospect of being a winning issue?
The military has mandatory Fitness for Duty Evaluations for high responsibility positions like Commanders of aircraft carriers. Fail and that individual is disqualified for that position.
Every American deserves annd must DEMAND all individuals in authority pass Fitness for Duty Evaluations.
Good luck with that!
I'm reading "On Tyranny".by Timothy Snyder. What we all do grows freedom. Very good.
🔸️Do not obey In advance🔸️Defend institutions🔸️Beware the one-party state🔸️Take responsibility for the face of the world🔸️Remember professional ethics🔸️Be wary of paramilitaries🔸️Be reflective if you must be armed🔸️Stand out🔸️Be kind to our language🔸️Believe in truth🔸️Investigate🔸️Make eye contact and small talk🔸️Practice corporeal politics🔸️Establish a private life🔸️Contribute to good causes🔸️Learn from peers in other countries🔸️Listen for dangerous words🔸️Be calm when the unthinkable arrives🔸️Be a patriot🔸️Be as courageous as you can
Hopefully that would include moth military and peace corps and citizens climate corps.
Hi All, What can the Democrats do to gain ground in rural America? Surely defence of democracy, concern over a changing climate etc are issues that resonate with those living and working in rural areas? Gaining ground in rural counties will help support the 2026 Blue Wave. Grateful for any thoughts - thank you, Russ.
Russell, I’ve recently discovered Jess Piper. She has some interesting thoughts from her experience as a rural organizer in Missouri. Here’s a recent newsletter:
https://open.substack.com/pub/jesspiper/p/democrats-stay-home?r=2xq6a&utm_medium=ios
Thanks. I posted her substack link yesterday here.
Me, too. I read Jess's posts every time she has one. She is awesome!
If Trump enacts his threatened tariffs, that is really going to hurt American farmers: pricier equipment if it’s foreign-made or contains foreign parts, and greatly-reduced income if they’re reliant on exports.
Democrats must repeatedly and very loudly blame Trump and his policies for this pain to rural America.
And if it happens (I hope it doesn't, as it would be very hard on folks), Dems need to shed the whole "above the fray, let's work on solutions; head down, work to fix the problem" BS. They need to go into those communities, and go on those podcasts, and make sure everyone knows about it. They need to invite people who've been hurt to town halls or 1:1 interviews and make sure that stuff goes viral. Work on solutions 100% in parallel, but make sure you amplify the pain it is causing in real time.
Do you know anything about Stephen Spoonamore?
Simon et al.:
Remembering Jefferson, and thinking about “Leon”. One man helped create the Union. The other is trying to disassemble it. Almost 250 years from the Declaration, it seems that one Founder foreshadowed another type of founder. Bloomberg calls this short piece, “American Oligarch”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FMu4NjoR9U. Professor Tim Snyder has a similar take on his Substack. They probably could have done the same piece in October (just an observation).
“INDEED I TREMBLE FOR MY COUNTRY WHEN I REFLECT THAT GOD IS JUST; THAT HIS JUSTICE CANNOT SLEEP FOREVER…” This is the most famous pull quote from Jefferson’s “Notes on the State of Virginia” (1784). If you guessed that Jefferson was referencing America’s original sin, you would be correct. With this information, one could understand the need in specific states for book bans and revised curricula (with new and improved textbooks). History can be quite inconvenient.
To the present day, we are ALL INHERITORS of this legacy. So, the day after the results, some African-Americans began receiving highly offensive messages: https://apnews.com/article/text-messages-slavery-racism-black-americans-fbi-708973521d2974bec7514b8622877290. Yes, this is all about “economic insecurity” and working-class angst.
John Della Volpe's substack article is a fascinating read, thanks Simon. I wonder if it makes some conclusions that we shouldn't make, such as Democrats not being good enough on certain issues, when really it was as simple as young voters just voting for change on that issue. Example: 59% said they want to stop aid to Israel but a majority said Trump was better on Middle East issues. My hunch based on the data on historical incumbent performances (and this year being the first EVER that every incumbent party in western democracies lost voter share) is that they just wanted change. And if it had been Trump who was the incumbent, they would have favored Kamala on this issue. I do strongly agree that Dems need to focus more on practical matters. I also think the big reason for the rightward shift in young men is they see Dems (us) as primarily focused on "woke" issues above everything else. These issues, or at least the perceived PRIMARY FOCUS ON THEM, doesn't resonate with them. This alienates them. People vote for the party they feel is like them, and "woke" makes young men want to look elsewhere for a home (even if wrongly). It's not a logical thing; it's a feeling. They also equate this with "freedom of speech" - which we don't - they think of the ability to say what they've always said their entire lives (again, even if wrongly) without someone immediately jumping down their throat, as freedom of speech. They feel exhausted from constantly walking on eggshells with how they talk.
Yes, agree with much of this. Kamala had a nearly impossible mission. In about 3.5 months, she had to switch the election from being a referendum on Biden to a choice between her and Trump (i.e., separate herself from being an incumbent, because incumbency was a big disadvantage almost world-wide).
Agree with you on woke-ness stuff, too. This is a product of the RW media machine. Kamala and Walz hardly ever mentioned anything regarding woke-ness. Even Sam Harris, whom I respect tremendously and who is as anti-woke as anyone on the right, thought VP Harris did a great job of not getting wrapped up in that nonsense.
But, the RW media machine absolutely deluged their audiences with exactly the message you're talking about (Dems are all woke, all the time). Highly effective, because even I and my wife, not being in that age group anymore and being solid left-leaners, are freakin' sick of it.
Heck, my 14-YO daughter is a high school athlete, so she definitely doesn't like the idea of physiological boys competing against physiological girls. She's 100% for live and let live, and has gay friends and knows trans people. None of that woke stuff crosses her mind except that she is annoyed when someone makes a big deal out of it.
100%. I'd also say that it's not just the RW media blowing it up larger than it is. There is truth to it. I see it constantly among my friends and family (all Dems). If we really think honestly, the first prism that we put most of our thoughts through is some form of, is this racist/sexist/colonialist/etc? Did something happen with this 200 years ago that was racist and thus we can't celebrate it? And young men are sick of it unfortunately, but we have to be practical/realistic if we want to win. We can stop the constant policing of peoples' words when they make mistakes and instead of attacking them in a mean spirited way, teach them how to be better, slowly over time. My wife has done it for me. My high school friends who all voted Trump haven't had someone do that for them, they've only had people attack them and shout "racist!" at them, and surprise surprise that drives them away. Many of them hated GW Bush as much as I did. Ironically our mean spirited attacking of people who don't talk correctly just leads to us not being able to accomplish our objectives in regards to equality etc because we don't win as many elections as we could. People aren't perfect and we can't expect them to be. Especially not the huge chunk of non-intellectual testosterone filled young men whose whole life is about proving to their peers that they are the alpha (and this is natural, we must accept it)
Yes-- agree here, too. Some Dems make enemies out of people who could be allies. All because of small deviations from a perceived "north star" of universal acceptance and righteousness. They don't seem to realize that acceptance runs both ways.
I think what I meant to say is RW media has a huge role in amplifying Dems' flubbing on woke-ness. When any Dem does something ridiculous (and, to your point, there is a lot of ridiculousness) on that front, it travels far and wide and is a topic for a full two weeks in their networks. So, it is shooting ourselves in the foot, but the RW media machine takes a minor toe wound and makes it a grenade that blows off everything below the shin :-)
Harris-Walz did a very good job of avoiding the trap. But, guilt by association...
Agree 100%, you nailed it
The Republicans introduced HR9495 the Stop Terror-Financing and Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act, which seems like a good idea on the surface. But the MAGA's instead new language (sec 4) which would give Trump's Secretary of Treasury unchecked authority to declare any non-profit organization that opposes them, or that they don't like, a terror-supporting organization and take away their tax-exempt status. The Republicans tried to fast-track the bill last week and it failed to get the required 2/3 majority votes. They are reintroducing the Bill this week, and it will require only a simple majority. I encourage all the Hokum community to contact their representatives to vote no on this dangerous vote.
Congressman Gabe Vasquez (D NM-2) actually voted for the bill. Organizations like BlueCD2 and Indivisible NM mounted a campaign for calls to the Congressman to change his vote. We learned this morning he will change his vote. Lesson is Speak Up and Speak Loud and we will be heard
I wonder too about the shifts rightward in John's data for groups like Latino men and Ann Arbor youth. Were these shifts just as a percentage of a lower voter pool? Because Trump barely got more votes than he did in 2020. That means he didn't grow his coalition. Maybe the rightward shift is just a function of fewer young Latino men and fewer Ann Arbor youth turning out?
Sun Sentinel reporting that repubs will cut medicaid and food stamps to pay for billiionaire/corp tax gift! this will hurt a lot of people. and repub voters. if true, dems need to plaster this everywhere and now before it happens.
This is scary.
After reading the newsletter, I am still of the belief, the youth/young man vote went the way of the macho type with the incessant pummeling of the dis-information & lies. I could have accepted that the youth vote is this new unaffiliated/thinking voter if it were not for their thinking Donald is a good leader. That tells me they are still being influenced by the dis-information, etc, etc.
I am with Claudia. These young men you-know-who voters are not innocent lambs. They were not blank slates that the right wing got to first. They carry sexist and racist mindsets that they received first hand and probably transgenerationally. The Della Volpe presentation pointed to how the voting went. A good presentation. However, we cannot ignore the elephant, bigotry, in the room. Republicans did not and it is why they massaged on it and have since the 1980's maybe earlier. And the point made about ignoring black women I have seen several places now. I ask, is not this racism in our own mist? It is a place where we can definitely engage and likely make major gains. It appears to me as a big red flag when black women feel ignored when our candidate was a women of color. What was going on? Persons in our party should be way easier to engage with than young white racist males. I would say we have an obligation to repent rapidly from any ignoring.
I see I was also replying in this message with Deidra and those following her. I am new to these discussion threads so I lost my place.