This: “To be clear - health care needs to be in the mix. But our argument becomes stronger, sturdier and more durable if we expand it to at least include tariffs/costs and Trump’s unprecedented threat to democracy.”
It was conventional wisdom after the election that Dems focused too much on "democracy." I would argue that their storytelling was bad. But now people are seeing the threat in real time, and I hope that the Dems who are overly-driven by conventional wisdom see the polls now and start to drive the conversation.
Speaking of, I will call Senator Klobuchar this morning to ask that she widen her focus, along with Senator Smith, and I will thank Ilhan Omar for advocacy.
Would someone who knows how to read polls take a look at this one that shows Walz at zero net approval? It's a Sinclair-owned station, so I'm dubious.
Zero net approval means that the percentage of people answering the poll who approve is exactly the same as the percentage who disapprove.
Net Approval = % Approve - % Disapprove
So if there is 50% approval and 50% disapproval, the net approval is 0%.
By comparison, the table in Hopium today from Economist/YouGov weekly tracker shows net approval for dt at -17 overall, -34 among youngest voters and -69 among black voters.
In addition to the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, reliable polls cited by Simon include:
I read G. Elliott Morris’s substack this morning, and his polling found that Republicans tend to be blamed for the shutdown, even when Democrats fight on healthcare. But he argued when Democrats go beyond healthcare, the chance they will be blamed for the shutdown begins to tick up. I think Simon’s suggestions really work. But I guess some Democrats are worried about threading the needle and trying to avoid getting blamed for the shutdown. That said, it probably depends a lot on the poll. And Morris doesn’t poll on democracy, as far as I know.
He only tested health care and not an expanded agenda so what he found is that Dems do better when we have a clearly articled reason for opposing Trump.
For the shutdown, I think that Democrats should focus on specific healthcare goals such as continuing the ACA subsidies and on Medicare. That was what G. Elliott Morris was suggesting in his Substack. Put more than a single issue into the shutdown, and Democrats look like obstructionists, rather than as elected representatives fighting to help the American people.
However, for the 2026 election (and campaigning needs to be underway now), we should cast the wider net of economics, healthcare, and democracy.
I am going to repeat that this not the right conclusion from this poll. Health care performs slightly better than generic opposition but I am not proposing general opposition but rather issue specific opposition to the whole Trump admin and his agenda. Folks need to go a little show here.
"Today’s Economist/YouGov: Costs/Economy 35%, Rights/Liberties 17%, Health Care 8%"
So why is Jeffries solely focused on health care issues? This is the best argument yet for expanding the issues for budget negotiations.
I've seen headlines that the Speaker Johnson is not even going to resume a session for the last two days of September, and that Trump has cancelled a meeting on the budget with the Democrats. If GOP and the administration is in hiding, this is the week that the Democrats should have a full frontal media blitz on GOP failure to govern. It wouldn't hurt to highlight that we have had a continuing resolution based on the Biden budget passed two years ago. The GOP can't govern, period.
That was the message to my electeds this morning... and I wrote and mailed 25 postcards for CA Prop 50.
@Michael G Baer, of course the GOP cannot govern. Your point is well taken. Dems must win the House Majority, and try for majority Senate in 2025-2026. So many wonderful Democrat candidates running for House, Senate and Governors now.
I think you may be the only person who can delete your own post. Press the three dots to the right of your name. Delete is at the bottom of the list of actions.
Although the biggest takeaway here is mobilize and work as if we're behind (eventhough we're probably not). Because a strong repudiation depends on how much we lead by. Also, just because it's GOP districts, doesn't necesarily mean a lot of folks are voting GOP.
I think these are the two most important paragraphs in the Mercury story: Lamont Bagby, chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia, pushed back on the idea that Republicans are running ahead. He said in a phone interview Monday that the available numbers “appear to be incomplete because not everyone has reported,” but emphasized that “every indication that I’m getting is that Democrats have outperformed 2021.”
Bagby added that what he has seen so far suggests a roughly “2 to 1” margin of Democrats to Republicans in early votes. “I’m thrilled about the excitement I’m seeing when I go to the polls,” he said, while cautioning that “we have a ton of work to do over the next 45 days.”
OK, thanks Beth. Rs lie and distort and to be very, very clear - you cannot determine partisan early vote performance based on turnout in a particular district. For the people voting in that district may be Dems not Rs. The reporter got played, badly, for this story.
I'm off later today to a sign-making party for the local No Kings event. Also organizing things for the two postcard writing parties I am holding for the elections in VA, CA, & PA (Simon, please include the latter--I know you don't usually get into judicial races, but if we lose our majority on the PA Supreme Court the Reeps will attack free elections in '26 and '28!)
Simon, thank you for the great news on polls! I'm so old that this reminds me of a dance called the Limbo. "How low can he go?"
I don't claim to know much about the riots in Nepal, but I'm seeing reports that their Gen Z cohort was upset about corruption and growing inequality. I see that the Echelon poll lists corruption as the 4th most important issue. So it's already one of the top five issues and we haven't really gone to work messaging it. I agree with you that Dems need to be fighting on more fronts than just health care (necessary as that is). I think adding the corruption of the Trump administration ("You get stopped for speeding, Trumpers get paper bags full of cash. Billionaires who make donations to Trump get pardons.") could be a good issue for us with younger people and red voters.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to ask them to do much more to fight against ICE. I'm writing postcards to Virginia voters today.
PS: You were wise to ignore Trump's speech at the UN. It was completely embarrassing.
We can chew gum and walk at the same time. Sticking with the heath care issue is important, but the tax on my cup of joe pisses me off to no end. A 50% tax on coffee from Brazil is thievery.
All Democratic candidates should be addressing the tariffs if they want to win and take back our government from the mobsters. My ears are opened to hear from them.
For all the complaints about Democrats not being fighters, somehow we've managed to tank his polling. I'm no expert, but those polls to me look radioactive. If he wasn't so intent on controlling his party with fear, the GOP would be jumping ship much faster than they are.
Of course, he's self destructing, but I think we are doing a very solid job along with a strong group of elected Democrats.
I started writing 10 postcards for a NJ BoE race. I just got a box of 1,000 cards so I'll take on something else. I am planning to work on a food delivery event on Saturday with one of our Democratic state senators.
Just forwarded the Montana ad to a Berkeley neighbor who splits her time between CA and MT. Asked her to forward the action-oriented ad to her MT friend networks. Yesterday, I planted my “Yes on Prop 50” sign in my yard, perpendicular to the street, delivered 3 more to others and, again, called Gov. Newsom’s Sacramento office to thank him AND his hard-working staff, especially his communications people, for Newsom’s fearless leadership to defend civil rights for ALL, regardless of U.S. citizenship. The Governor has effectively responded to the crass/hate-filled and lying voices from the WH+ his bootlicking entourage. Registered for the October 18 “NO KINGS 2.0” event. In the last couple days, received snail mail “thank you” letters from my Senators Padilla and Schiff for my support. Yes, recognition helps fuel us, too!
I heard Jimmy Kimmel will not air on the many local stations that Sinclair and Nexstar broadcast. So, he’s not really back on. They had a line in the sand that Jimmy had to apologize to the family and make a meaningful donation
Is there a way to watch Jimmy Kimmel live without Hulu live? We live in a market that has an ABC affiliate owned by Sinclair. Any suggestions are welcome.
In the past you could watch him on You Tube within hours of the show. It won't be Jimmy Kimmel Live, but the monologue and interview are generally viewable as separate clips by the following day, sometimes sooner. There is a search window if you go to youtube homepage.
Kind of great, actually, gives people a reason to bang on Sinclair. I would think that there are many more people who want to watch the late show (than those who are demanding they pull him off air in the local markets). Those who are demanding this, are not watching ABC. This is going to cost them money.
Sinclair is kind of the under the radar Fox News of local TV stations. Their arrogant banning of Kimmel from their stations is showing their hand. Not necessarily a bad thing.
I suspect that many people who watch local TV think of it as neutral and trustworthy. This reveals Sinclair-owned ABC affiliates to be neither.
Don't know if anyone saw the VP Harris interview on MSNBC last night. It was quite good. She was asked whether Dems should shut down the government. She had a nearly perfect response IMO, that every Dem should watch.
Paraphrasing: First of all, Dems won't shut down the government. Republicans will. They control the house, the senate, and the presidency. It's on them to govern (note how she blew up the premise of the question and then went on the attack). Second, Leaders Jeffries and Schumer are doing exactly what they're elected to do. They're not going to sacrifice the health care of their constituents so Trump can give tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires. And they're not going to have their constituents carry the burden of increased costs of food, housing, and other necessities so Trump can give tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires. So, start negotiating, Mr. President...
I'm thrilled that Jimmy Kimmel is back on air, and his guest tonight will be Governor Newsom.
But I hope people will consider continuing their boycotts. Everyone has to make their own choic of course.
Even though Disney made a new choice on the do over, the message was still "we don't really care about the first amendment, we only care about profits for our shareholders and executives."
Don't let the take away be that as long as the people get their Kimmel, they will forgive corporate greed.
This week has shown that WE the PEOPLE, have tremendous economic leverage if we work together. We should learn to use that cudgel in a variety of other ways. Take heart.
I disagree. Renew those subscriptions and give Disney a positive response to its action. Corporations care about profits and we have to train them to “do the right thing” by using what they care about where we have power over it. Just like dogs care about food and treats, and that’s how we train dogs.
Simon - what is driving the “only talk about Health care strategy” in the Senate and the House? It seems like whoever is behind this has locked up the whole caucus in this position. Are they listening to a single consultant (e.g. David Shor) who has done ad testing on this issue? Or is this just consultants (or a member/Senator) saying this is how we won in 2018 so we should do it again? Or is that this one position that the caucus agrees on running on (although I can’t imagine anyone is supportive of tariffs). I get why it might be problematic to discuss this but right now it is tough to fight because they are not disclosing the argument about why this is the strategy (and who is behind it).
Need to hit corruption, too. A target rich environment.
You talk a lot about good ads, but is that where people are getting information these days? Ads are very expensive and may not be that effective. Candidates and the party need to do more across all channels.
Mailed postcards to Virginia today. Message was “VA unemployment rate rises for the sixth straight month.” Postcards to swing states news boosting campaign.
This: “To be clear - health care needs to be in the mix. But our argument becomes stronger, sturdier and more durable if we expand it to at least include tariffs/costs and Trump’s unprecedented threat to democracy.”
It was conventional wisdom after the election that Dems focused too much on "democracy." I would argue that their storytelling was bad. But now people are seeing the threat in real time, and I hope that the Dems who are overly-driven by conventional wisdom see the polls now and start to drive the conversation.
Speaking of, I will call Senator Klobuchar this morning to ask that she widen her focus, along with Senator Smith, and I will thank Ilhan Omar for advocacy.
Would someone who knows how to read polls take a look at this one that shows Walz at zero net approval? It's a Sinclair-owned station, so I'm dubious.
https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/kstp-surveyusa-poll-walz-has-net-approval-of-zero-as-he-begins-campaign-for-3rd-term/
Here is a yougov poll for Gov. Walz. https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Tim_Walz
Zero net approval means that the percentage of people answering the poll who approve is exactly the same as the percentage who disapprove.
Net Approval = % Approve - % Disapprove
So if there is 50% approval and 50% disapproval, the net approval is 0%.
By comparison, the table in Hopium today from Economist/YouGov weekly tracker shows net approval for dt at -17 overall, -34 among youngest voters and -69 among black voters.
In addition to the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, reliable polls cited by Simon include:
Pew https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/politics-policy/
Economist / YouGov Weekly Tracker
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/most-important-issues-facing-the-us
Morning Consult https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers
Reuters/Ipsos https://www.reuters.com/ https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/latest-us-opinion-polls
Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast
Civiqs track https://civiqs.com/
G. Elliott Morris, Strength in Numbers https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-dems-lead-house-generic
I read G. Elliott Morris’s substack this morning, and his polling found that Republicans tend to be blamed for the shutdown, even when Democrats fight on healthcare. But he argued when Democrats go beyond healthcare, the chance they will be blamed for the shutdown begins to tick up. I think Simon’s suggestions really work. But I guess some Democrats are worried about threading the needle and trying to avoid getting blamed for the shutdown. That said, it probably depends a lot on the poll. And Morris doesn’t poll on democracy, as far as I know.
Cynthia that is not a correct read of what he wrote this morning.
He only tested health care and not an expanded agenda so what he found is that Dems do better when we have a clearly articled reason for opposing Trump.
For the shutdown, I think that Democrats should focus on specific healthcare goals such as continuing the ACA subsidies and on Medicare. That was what G. Elliott Morris was suggesting in his Substack. Put more than a single issue into the shutdown, and Democrats look like obstructionists, rather than as elected representatives fighting to help the American people.
However, for the 2026 election (and campaigning needs to be underway now), we should cast the wider net of economics, healthcare, and democracy.
I am going to repeat that this not the right conclusion from this poll. Health care performs slightly better than generic opposition but I am not proposing general opposition but rather issue specific opposition to the whole Trump admin and his agenda. Folks need to go a little show here.
And it’s only one poll. I am drawing from a much bigger data set.
And the evidence of where Dems think stuff is working is what they are putting on the air.
That House Dem ad I shared is the House Dem shutdown add and it is tariffs/costs, health care and chaos- deeply consistent with our recommendations.
I agree re. your "conventional wisdom" reference. The theme/concern was valid. But...it was probably too abstract for most folks.
And, here we are......absolute chaos, which was predictable for anyone paying attention.
"Today’s Economist/YouGov: Costs/Economy 35%, Rights/Liberties 17%, Health Care 8%"
So why is Jeffries solely focused on health care issues? This is the best argument yet for expanding the issues for budget negotiations.
I've seen headlines that the Speaker Johnson is not even going to resume a session for the last two days of September, and that Trump has cancelled a meeting on the budget with the Democrats. If GOP and the administration is in hiding, this is the week that the Democrats should have a full frontal media blitz on GOP failure to govern. It wouldn't hurt to highlight that we have had a continuing resolution based on the Biden budget passed two years ago. The GOP can't govern, period.
That was the message to my electeds this morning... and I wrote and mailed 25 postcards for CA Prop 50.
@Michael G Baer, of course the GOP cannot govern. Your point is well taken. Dems must win the House Majority, and try for majority Senate in 2025-2026. So many wonderful Democrat candidates running for House, Senate and Governors now.
Never could….
Markers For Democracy is writing thousands of postcards for Virginia candidates from their platform Postcards For Democracy.
Hard to believe, but a story in a VA paper this morning says GOP voters are more enthusiastic than ours. Get busy in Virginia!
I do not regret only having ESPN+ to give up for my country, and now I'm glad we won and I can get it back.
Can you provide a link to that story?
Not really, I just searched for "how many votes so far in the . . ." and don't remember which paper. Thanks for your interest!
If your browser retains a history, you can scan it and find where you went for that info and return to that page.
Simon asked me to provide a link or take the post down. Anyone who knows how to take it down, please do so.
I think you may be the only person who can delete your own post. Press the three dots to the right of your name. Delete is at the bottom of the list of actions.
Please provide a link or take the post down. Thank you.
It cannot be true.
I found this piece from the Mercury:
https://virginiamercury.com/2025/09/23/gop-districts-take-early-lead-in-virginias-first-week-of-early-voting/
CNBC has the dems in the lead though.
Although the biggest takeaway here is mobilize and work as if we're behind (eventhough we're probably not). Because a strong repudiation depends on how much we lead by. Also, just because it's GOP districts, doesn't necesarily mean a lot of folks are voting GOP.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/mondays-campaign-92225-spanberger-leads-early-voting-begins-virginia-rcna232953
I think these are the two most important paragraphs in the Mercury story: Lamont Bagby, chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia, pushed back on the idea that Republicans are running ahead. He said in a phone interview Monday that the available numbers “appear to be incomplete because not everyone has reported,” but emphasized that “every indication that I’m getting is that Democrats have outperformed 2021.”
Bagby added that what he has seen so far suggests a roughly “2 to 1” margin of Democrats to Republicans in early votes. “I’m thrilled about the excitement I’m seeing when I go to the polls,” he said, while cautioning that “we have a ton of work to do over the next 45 days.”
OK, thanks Beth. Rs lie and distort and to be very, very clear - you cannot determine partisan early vote performance based on turnout in a particular district. For the people voting in that district may be Dems not Rs. The reporter got played, badly, for this story.
I don't believe it. Even if there is a story making that claim I would be very skeptical.
Me too.
Yes! Renew and make it clear why you dropped espn and why you’re renewing. Power to your purse!
I'm off later today to a sign-making party for the local No Kings event. Also organizing things for the two postcard writing parties I am holding for the elections in VA, CA, & PA (Simon, please include the latter--I know you don't usually get into judicial races, but if we lose our majority on the PA Supreme Court the Reeps will attack free elections in '26 and '28!)
Simon, thank you for the great news on polls! I'm so old that this reminds me of a dance called the Limbo. "How low can he go?"
I don't claim to know much about the riots in Nepal, but I'm seeing reports that their Gen Z cohort was upset about corruption and growing inequality. I see that the Echelon poll lists corruption as the 4th most important issue. So it's already one of the top five issues and we haven't really gone to work messaging it. I agree with you that Dems need to be fighting on more fronts than just health care (necessary as that is). I think adding the corruption of the Trump administration ("You get stopped for speeding, Trumpers get paper bags full of cash. Billionaires who make donations to Trump get pardons.") could be a good issue for us with younger people and red voters.
I called Congressman Raskin and Senators Alsobrooks and Van Hollen to ask them to do much more to fight against ICE. I'm writing postcards to Virginia voters today.
PS: You were wise to ignore Trump's speech at the UN. It was completely embarrassing.
We can chew gum and walk at the same time. Sticking with the heath care issue is important, but the tax on my cup of joe pisses me off to no end. A 50% tax on coffee from Brazil is thievery.
All Democratic candidates should be addressing the tariffs if they want to win and take back our government from the mobsters. My ears are opened to hear from them.
For all the complaints about Democrats not being fighters, somehow we've managed to tank his polling. I'm no expert, but those polls to me look radioactive. If he wasn't so intent on controlling his party with fear, the GOP would be jumping ship much faster than they are.
Of course, he's self destructing, but I think we are doing a very solid job along with a strong group of elected Democrats.
I started writing 10 postcards for a NJ BoE race. I just got a box of 1,000 cards so I'll take on something else. I am planning to work on a food delivery event on Saturday with one of our Democratic state senators.
Thanks everyone for your efforts.
Consider postcarding for CA Prop 50
Just forwarded the Montana ad to a Berkeley neighbor who splits her time between CA and MT. Asked her to forward the action-oriented ad to her MT friend networks. Yesterday, I planted my “Yes on Prop 50” sign in my yard, perpendicular to the street, delivered 3 more to others and, again, called Gov. Newsom’s Sacramento office to thank him AND his hard-working staff, especially his communications people, for Newsom’s fearless leadership to defend civil rights for ALL, regardless of U.S. citizenship. The Governor has effectively responded to the crass/hate-filled and lying voices from the WH+ his bootlicking entourage. Registered for the October 18 “NO KINGS 2.0” event. In the last couple days, received snail mail “thank you” letters from my Senators Padilla and Schiff for my support. Yes, recognition helps fuel us, too!
polls in the 30's is what we need!!! good news!!
I heard Jimmy Kimmel will not air on the many local stations that Sinclair and Nexstar broadcast. So, he’s not really back on. They had a line in the sand that Jimmy had to apologize to the family and make a meaningful donation
Is there a way to watch Jimmy Kimmel live without Hulu live? We live in a market that has an ABC affiliate owned by Sinclair. Any suggestions are welcome.
In the past you could watch him on You Tube within hours of the show. It won't be Jimmy Kimmel Live, but the monologue and interview are generally viewable as separate clips by the following day, sometimes sooner. There is a search window if you go to youtube homepage.
We will definitely watch on YouTube. I was hoping to watch it live though.
Just saw this from Jay Kuo, aka Status Kuo, about watching via abc.com . https://substack.com/@jaykuo/note/c-159079270?r=nfcn4
Kind of great, actually, gives people a reason to bang on Sinclair. I would think that there are many more people who want to watch the late show (than those who are demanding they pull him off air in the local markets). Those who are demanding this, are not watching ABC. This is going to cost them money.
Sinclair is kind of the under the radar Fox News of local TV stations. Their arrogant banning of Kimmel from their stations is showing their hand. Not necessarily a bad thing.
I suspect that many people who watch local TV think of it as neutral and trustworthy. This reveals Sinclair-owned ABC affiliates to be neither.
"pay no attention to the man behind the curtain"
Don't know if anyone saw the VP Harris interview on MSNBC last night. It was quite good. She was asked whether Dems should shut down the government. She had a nearly perfect response IMO, that every Dem should watch.
Paraphrasing: First of all, Dems won't shut down the government. Republicans will. They control the house, the senate, and the presidency. It's on them to govern (note how she blew up the premise of the question and then went on the attack). Second, Leaders Jeffries and Schumer are doing exactly what they're elected to do. They're not going to sacrifice the health care of their constituents so Trump can give tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires. And they're not going to have their constituents carry the burden of increased costs of food, housing, and other necessities so Trump can give tax breaks to millionaires and billionaires. So, start negotiating, Mr. President...
Loved it.
I'm thrilled that Jimmy Kimmel is back on air, and his guest tonight will be Governor Newsom.
But I hope people will consider continuing their boycotts. Everyone has to make their own choic of course.
Even though Disney made a new choice on the do over, the message was still "we don't really care about the first amendment, we only care about profits for our shareholders and executives."
Don't let the take away be that as long as the people get their Kimmel, they will forgive corporate greed.
This week has shown that WE the PEOPLE, have tremendous economic leverage if we work together. We should learn to use that cudgel in a variety of other ways. Take heart.
I disagree. Renew those subscriptions and give Disney a positive response to its action. Corporations care about profits and we have to train them to “do the right thing” by using what they care about where we have power over it. Just like dogs care about food and treats, and that’s how we train dogs.
Fire Iger first.
Simon - what is driving the “only talk about Health care strategy” in the Senate and the House? It seems like whoever is behind this has locked up the whole caucus in this position. Are they listening to a single consultant (e.g. David Shor) who has done ad testing on this issue? Or is this just consultants (or a member/Senator) saying this is how we won in 2018 so we should do it again? Or is that this one position that the caucus agrees on running on (although I can’t imagine anyone is supportive of tariffs). I get why it might be problematic to discuss this but right now it is tough to fight because they are not disclosing the argument about why this is the strategy (and who is behind it).
Need to hit corruption, too. A target rich environment.
You talk a lot about good ads, but is that where people are getting information these days? Ads are very expensive and may not be that effective. Candidates and the party need to do more across all channels.
Mailed postcards to Virginia today. Message was “VA unemployment rate rises for the sixth straight month.” Postcards to swing states news boosting campaign.