Kimmel Returns, Trump Embarrasses, Dems Are Starting To Lean Hard Into Rising Costs And Tariffs
Keep voting early good people of Virginia!
Morning all. First off I am going to ignore Trump’s speech to the UN this morning for it will be shameful and a betrayal of everything that has made America great for centuries.
Next, the return of Jimmy Kimmel is a win for us, and here we take the wins when they come. Congrats everyone. Let’s use it as inspiration for our vital work ahead.
Next, we got a few more polls today. Here’s some of what we’ve seen of Trump’s job approval since the tragic killing of Charlie Kirk. These terrible numbers are why I think Trump is heading into the coming debate about the budget and his failure to deliver for the American people in a weak position:
39%-60% (-21) AP-NORC
38%-59% (-21) ARG
39%-56% (-17) Economist/YouGov (this week)
40%-56% (-16) Gallup
43%-56% (-13) WaPo/Ipsos
42%-55% (-13) Strength In Numbers/Verasign
Here’s our weekly breakout of the Economist/YouGov tracker - erosion, decline, struggle.
For another example of Trump’s ebbing powers and loss of control over the daily discourse he’s at 35% approval on “free speech” in the new Economist/YouGov poll. In his weakened state he continues to struggle to win any major argument with the public:
As we prep for the months-long and intense debate over the budget and Trump’s failed government three new Dem ad campaigns provide a good window into where Democrats see opportunity now - on rising costs, inflation, tariffs, betrayal….
A House Dem aligned group has begun running ads in ten GOP-held battleground districts. This one is running against Rep. Ciscomani in AZ-6:
Here’s a new ad from the Spanberger campaign. This too is all about rising costs and betrayal:
These ads are similar to a new ad in Alaska from a Senate Dem aligned group:
It’s been our central advice to the family (here, here, here, here) that as we go deeper into what’s going to be a months long debate/info war on the budget and Trump’s failed government that we need to broaden our argument beyond our current focus on health care adding, at the very least, tariffs/rising costs and his escalating threat to our democracy and freedoms. Rising costs is the most important issue for voters. Threats to democracy is the most important issue for the Dem grassroots and the issue (No Kings) that has been driving the extraordinary level of activism we’ve seen this year.
Recent polling also suggests that by adding these two issues to our current narrative we can put Democrats in a stronger position in the coming budget debate. Here is a selection of “most important issue” results from recent polls….
Today’s Economist/YouGov: Costs/Economy 35%, Rights/Liberties 17%, Health Care 8%
From a newly released statewide poll in Virginia:
Virginia likely voters are asked which issue is top of mind when they think about voting in the upcoming elections. 21% say inflation/cost of living, followed by 18% who say threats to democracy. The next three top issues are evenly split between K-12 education (9%), immigration (9%), and crime (9%).
Top of mind issues vary by party with Republicans fairly split between inflation/cost of living (19%), immigration (18%) and crime (18%). Top issues among Democrats include threats to democracy (32%), inflation/cost of living (20%), and an even split between K-12 education (12%) and healthcare (12%). Most Independents say inflation/cost of living (25%), followed by threats to democracy (17%), and an even split between K-12 education (10%) and crime (10%).
Echelon Insights - Costs/Economy 32%, Democracy/Corruption 26%, Health Care 4%:
From the new Gallup poll. Health care at 3%, lots of concern about “the government and poor leadership”
A new statewide poll in California:
Remarkably in a new Quinnipiac poll threats to democracy trump the economy even for independents:
When it comes to centering our engagement with Trump around costs and tariffs here’s something I wrote recently:
A reminder of the “most important issue” from the 2024 Exit Polls:
To be clear - health care needs to be in the mix. But our argument becomes stronger, sturdier and more durable if we expand it to include tariffs/costs and Trump’s unprecedented threat to democracy.
As I wrote yesterday I think we have to see the coming debate/info war over the budget and Trump’s failed government as the beginning of the 2026 general election and all hands on deck moment for the political/campaign side of our business and all of us. We are in a big fight now with Trump and it is one we simply must win.
Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!
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Take Action, Express Your Love Of Country And Strengthen Our Democracy Through Good Works - We have two recommended actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your Senators and House Member work to
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Block the expansion of ICE, restore due process, defend the 1st Amendment, and end the use of the military on our streets and the occupations of our cities (need to revise and update this one, make it bigger)
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; demand the removal of extremist Robert Kennedy from HHS
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community have passed or are advancing 81 (!!!!) resolution projects in 22 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Great to see!
Keep working hard all, and looking forward to winning the fall, together - Simon
"Today’s Economist/YouGov: Costs/Economy 35%, Rights/Liberties 17%, Health Care 8%"
So why is Jeffries solely focused on health care issues? This is the best argument yet for expanding the issues for budget negotiations.
I've seen headlines that the Speaker Johnson is not even going to resume a session for the last two days of September, and that Trump has cancelled a meeting on the budget with the Democrats. If GOP and the administration is in hiding, this is the week that the Democrats should have a full frontal media blitz on GOP failure to govern. It wouldn't hurt to highlight that we have had a continuing resolution based on the Biden budget passed two years ago. The GOP can't govern, period.
That was the message to my electeds this morning... and I wrote and mailed 25 postcards for CA Prop 50.
Is anybody else sensing that the momentum feels different lately in a new way than even over the summer? It feels like a mood shift prompted by a mix of the boycotts and other pushbacks on Disney working; Dem leaders speaking more strongly over the last week about the budget fight, national security, vaccines & HHS, ongoing info and pressure about the Epstein files, all of which show more Dem leaders really fighting; topped off with Rachel Maddow's interview of Kamala Harris last night, which was way more interesting than I expected. None of that erases the horrible stuff, but it feels different.