Morning all. I am on my way to Minnesota right now to support the Minnesota Democratic Party (DFL) at an event this evening in St. Paul. I wanted to go to Minnesota to show my solidarity after the horrific assassinations and attempted assassinations of elected Democrats there in June. I am grateful to Hopium community member Tim Wegener for making it possible, and excited for our event tonight. If you are in Minnesota please join us, and others from around the country can support the event too by clicking on the link above.
Yesterday the great governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, announced that he was running for a third term. Here is the wonderful video he released laying out his reasons why:
Last night Xp Lee won the special election to fill Melissa Hortman’s seat in the Minnesota State House. Here is how CNN covered it this morning:
Democrat Xp Lee will win a special election to fill the vacant seat of the late Democratic state Rep. Melissa Hortman, according to a call from the Associated Press, just over three months after she and her husband were fatally shot in what Gov. Tim Walz at the time called “a politically motivated assassination” and less than a week after the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.
The election in Minnesota’s state House District 34B determines the balance of the chamber, which stands at a very slim 67-66 Republican majority. With Lee’s win in this solidly blue district in the Brooklyn Park suburb, the balance of power will again be tied at 67-67, which was where it stood before Hortman was killed. The Minnesota House previously struck a power-sharing agreement the last time the balance was tied, which Hortman said at the time was a “golden opportunity” to showcase bipartisanship.
Lee, a health equity analyst and former Brooklyn Park City Council member, faced Republican Ruth Bittner, a real estate agent who has never run for public office. Top Minnesota Democrats such as Walz and Sen. Amy Klobuchar campaigned for Lee in recent days. Lee beat out two candidates in the Democratic primary last month to advance to September’s special general election. Bittner ran unopposed.
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin released a statement Tuesday celebrating the win and condemning political violence.
“I offer a heartfelt congratulations to Xp Lee on his victory in tonight’s special election. Xp’s commitment to expanding access to education, affordable health care, and good-paying jobs honors the legacy of our dear friend, Speaker Emeritus Melissa Hortman,” Martin said. “Across Minnesota, our hearts are still broken by the horrific assassination that stole Melissa and her husband Mark. Political violence is a scourge that has taken far too many lives. Enough is enough.”
Looking forward to spending time with the good people of Minnesota this evening and lending my support to the one of the best state parties in the country in a time of extraordinary challenge.
Launching Hopium’s New Audacious Expansion Fund - Over the next few weeks we will be updating our recommended candidate and party committee list as the cycle begins to take greater shape, new candidates have gotten in, and new opportunities arise. Our primary focus this fall is on ensuring that Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger win in NJ and VA, and that Yes On 50 passes in California. If you can please plan on spending some of your limited political capital and volunteer time on these three important projects in the coming weeks. They are all “must wins” and we just cannot take our eye of the ball here for one second.
The first update to current set of electoral recommendations is a new campaign I’m calling Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund. This new effort invests early resources in five state Democratic Parties - Alaska, Iowa, Florida, Maine, and Texas - that are expansion opportunities for us next year and in the future.
Simply, Democrats must learn how to win in more red states and red places if we are to retake Congress next year and build a better Electoral College map for us in the years ahead.
This fund will split each donation five ways and put resources into state parties that have not traditionally received significant national investment. Early, odd year investment will make a big difference as these challenging states gear up for critical races for Governor, Senate and the US House next year.
I am setting a ambitious goal - $250,000, $50,000 to each state party - by the end of 2025. Note that high net worth donors can give up to $50,000 to this fund - $10,000 for each state party. The earlier we get them this money the more valuable it will be.
Hopium is already raising for Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Roy Cooper in North Carolina. We will be adding Sherrod Brown to our list soon. But we need to put more seats in play if we are to flip the Senate next year. This fund will help make things possible that would not be possible without early investment and prior to us having a primary winner we can all rally around.
This is a higher risk set of investments than we have traditionally made here at Hopium. But with Trump failing and struggling more is possible for us now, and these kinds of early investments can help turn a long shot race into a competitive one in parts of the country where we simply must learn how to win.
Here’s the logic for picking these five:
Flipping The Senate in 2026 - To have a shot at flipping the Senate next year we will need to win at least two seats from four of our targeted states - Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Texas. As each state has to yet to settle on a Democratic nominee I’m recommending that we do not wait and go in now with early investments to help each state party prepare for the general election next year. This is the same approach we took with Arizona and North Carolina last cycle, with great success.
Making FL and/or TX Competitive - As we’ve been discussing the movement of people from blue to red states means we lose Electoral College votes after the 2030 census and simply we will have to expand our map and update our understanding of what the Presidential battleground is. This means that by the 2032 Presidential campaign we will need to put more states in play and the two states next up are expensive and hard ones - Florida and Texas. It’s why I am calling this an “audacious” expansion fund.
A New Opportunity With Hispanic/Latino Voters - As Senator Ruben Gallego discussed with us last week the war Trump and the GOP are waging against Hispanic/Latino families is giving us a new opportunity in the heavily Hispanic states of FL and TX. More may be possible now in both states than we would have believed a year ago. Check out the results of a new Bulwark backed focus group of Latino voters:
LATINO VOTERS FLOCKED TO DONALD TRUMP in surprisingly large numbers last November to help him retake the White House. But a year later, the same cohort has soured on his presidency, with many saying they regret their vote.
That’s the main takeaway from a new focus group of Latino Trump voters conducted by The Bulwark on September 10. Every single one of the seven participants said they regretted voting for Trump.
The participants said they were angry over the state of the economy and frustrated by Trump’s handling of immigration and deportations. Asked to give the president a letter grade for his term thus far, six gave him D’s and one gave an F. Asked later about her grade, one participant who gave a D said she was just trying to be nice.
We kick off our new campaign today with a fresh interview with the Florida Democratic Party Chair, Nikki Fried. A recording and transcript can be found above. Chair Fried reviews the current political landscape in Florida, particularly what is shaping up to be a potentially competitive governor’s race there. A new poll released by David Jolly’s gubernatorial campaign has Jolly ahead of the likely GOP nominee 41-40. While it is early, and it appears Democrats may get another candidate in the race for governor, this poll - and other public polls taken earlier this year - suggests that Florida could have competitive state wide elections in 2026. Investing in the Florida Democratic Party now makes that more likely. Here’s the Florida Politics newsletter:
A new poll shows a tight race for Florida Governor despite a distinct voter advantage for the GOP.
The poll, conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International for Democrat David Jolly’s campaign, shows Jolly 1 point ahead of Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds and 2 points behind Paul Renner, a former Florida House Speaker who is also seeking the GOP nomination……
The poll queried respondents about their top concerns, with 41% citing either affordability (23%), inflation (10%) or jobs and the economy (8%) as a top concern.
“Change is coming to Florida. I’ve visited with voters in town halls and communities all across Florida — red, blue, and down the middle. We’ve built a coalition of Floridians focused on solving the state’s affordability crisis in housing — a coalition that simply believes the economy should work for everyone, the government should effectively serve our communities, and we should be a state that empowers all our people,” Jolly said in a statement about the poll.
“What we also know is that Republican leaders in our state have gone too far. They’re ignoring the affordability crisis, dividing us with culture wars, and now attacking childhood vaccines.”
The poll also asked about the DeSantis administration’s plans to erase vaccine mandates in Florida, with 60% of voters opposing such a move. A plurality of voters surveyed, 43%, strongly opposed removing vaccine mandates. Meanwhile, nearly half of voters (48%) said they opposed Gov. Ron DeSantis’ plan to redraw congressional seats ahead of the 2026 Midterms.
To learn more about our opportunities in these 5 expansion states watch my interviews with Iowa Chair Rita Hart and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder. We will have interviews from Alaska and Maine soon!
For a reminder of how much Trump has stumbled this year - and why we should be viewing this cycle as one of opportunity - here’s my updated 2024 Trump coalition tracker pulled from the weekly Economist/YouGov poll:
I am excited about this new project and look forward to going deeper into the logic and strategy with all of you in the weeks ahead. I look forward to talking about it with Hopium paid subscribers tomorrow night!!!!!!!
Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!
Support Our November, 2025 Candidates and Yes On 50
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $76k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my new interview with Rep. Sherrill
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $190k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger
Yes on 50 (CA) - $50,000 goal - Donate | Learn more, volunteer
Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $34,000 raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interviews with Gov. Cooper and NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $68k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my inspiring new interview with Senator Ossoff
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $200k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Support Our Audacious Expansion Fund (2026-2032)
Hopium's Audacious Expansion Fund - Investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas - $250,000 goal - Donate To All Five State Parties | Watch my interviews with Iowa Chair Rita Hart and Texas Chair Kendall Scudder | Links to be able to support each party individually will be up soon
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
For more on Hopium’s approach to elections check out 1) the many important wins we had together last cycle 2) my big recommendations to the family coming out of the 2024 elections about what we need to do now 3) my latest thinking on where we are and the path forward for the Hopium community.
Take Action, Express Your Love Of Country And Strengthen Our Democracy Through Good Works - We are prioritizing two actions today:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your reps work to
Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Block the expansion of ICE, restore due process, and end the use of the military on our streets and the occupations of our cities
Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; demand the removal of extremist Robert Kennedy from HHS
Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia and China
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community are now advancing 81 (!!!!) resolutions projects in 22 states + DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
Last Tuesday night the town council of Corrales, New Mexico debated and passed a resolution of condemnation. A preview of the resolution can be found in this article from a local new site. In considering the resolution Councilor Bill Woldman said:
"I want to thank the Mayor and administration for the comprehensive and important statement on our democracy. This is not a partisan statement, but rather an acknowledgment of a significant deviation from 250 years of practice of the Separation of Powers. While all politics may not be local, it is important for local governmental bodies to acknowledge threats when they exist and support our Congressional Representatives in their resistance to executive branch overreach. Thank you."
Keep up the great work proud, plucky patriots of the Hopium community!!!!
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Great to see!
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and a future to secure for our kids and grandkids - Simon
