Morning all. A few things for you today:
Winning The Fall - With Trump’s powers ebbing, his descent into authoritarianism and madness deepening, and the manifest failures of his Administration now impossible to ignore, here at Hopium our mission has become to win the fall and ensure that the big story of American politics is that the tide has begun to turn definitively against him and his ongoing betrayal of the country.
Dive deeper into this argument in my new weekly video and post, in a new Deep State Radio discussion with David Rothkopf and Tara McGowan, and in this lively conversation with Stuart Stevens of Lincoln Square.
Dive deeper into this argument by reviewing these Hopium essays and analyses:
Fighting Trump Now - Some Recommendations For Congressional Democrats
The Reckoning For Trump’s Idiocy, Extremism, And Betrayal Has Begun
On Trump’s Madness, Epstein, Compromise And The Unsustainable Path He Has Chosen
Watch my new interviews with Senator Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. Dan Goldman to get fresh views on our current moment from inside the Senate and House.
A new NBC News poll released this morning is one of the worst polls Trump has seen this cycle:
He is now underwater on every major issue, including border security:
And this poll at least suggests that Americans do care about more than just “kitchen table” issues.
Friends, we should the fall as a time of opportunity for us. Let us seize it, together.
Winning The Fall In New Jersey By Electing Mikie Sherrill - One of the most important ways we can win the fall is to keep the momentum from our wins and overperformances in elections across the US this year going and ensure our November candidates rack up decisive victories.
I am excited to share a new interview with one of those candidates, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who is leading in her battle to become the next governor of New Jersey. Sherrill joined us earlier this summer for what was a warm and wonderful discussion of her race, even embracing our label of a proud, plucky patriot!
The events of recent weeks have shown us the importance of strong governors in this extraordinary battle against Trump. Here, in New Jersey, we have an opportunity to not just elect a new governor but someone who has the potential to be a very strong and consequential one.
In our discussion (video and transcript above) Sherrill updates us on where things stand and the arguments she is making in these closing weeks of the campaign. What you will see and hear is a strong candidate, confident of her message and plan, working as hard as she can to lead her state in a time of enormous challenge. As she likes to say in the Navy she was trained to run into battle not run from it and it is very clear she is running into this fight with everything she’s got.
Recent polls show Sherrill with sturdy 7 and 9 point leads with likely voters, and far better favorability than her MAGA opponent. If we work hard here and close strong we should be able to win this race this November. You can donate, volunteer and learn more about Rep. Sherrill through our links below. Please do what you can to help her win - simply, this is a must win race for us, and everyone should be “all in” on this one.
To me the most compelling part of our conversation was her reflections on the strength of her campaign’s message, and the weakness and distance of her opponent’s. By focusing on improving people’s lives and addressing rising costs Sherrill tells us that she is where voters are now, and that her argument and agenda are being very well received on the ground, with voters. Her opponent, however, by backing Trump’s agenda that is raising costs through tariffs and raising energy and health care costs through the big, ugly bill is struggling to connect to voters who want something far better than what MAGA is offering them now.
Her report is confirmation of the opportunity we have this fall (and next year too) as voters come to understand that Trump really has pursued an agenda of sabotage, plunder and betrayal and is for the oligarchs, not the people. While 2024 was a very tough issue environment, our candidates are facing a far more favorable one now.
This week Sherrill opened up a new front in her campaign, one focused on rising utility costs in the state. Here is her new ad, “Bold Leadership” -
Note how hard the campaign leans into something we’ve discussed here at length - the need for our candidates to not just get the issues right but to also be strong leaders, strong and resolute enough to actually get things done for voters. A reminder of Exit Poll data that tells us we must take “strong leadership” and “can bring needed change” far more seriously in our understanding of how people forge their opinions about leaders and parties:
We must not only have an agenda that will make things better for the American people we must also be strong and resolute enough to be able to enact it on their behalf. And, now that Trump is underwater on every major issue - even border security in the new NBC News poll - we have to work take this last essential building block of his brand - strong leader who can bring needed change - away from him and work together to make him weak, not strong; failing, not succeeding; a loser not a winner; and a villain not a hero.
That too is another way we can win the fall.
Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Support Our November, 2025 Candidates
Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $64k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Rep. Sherrill
Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $181k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger
Support Our 2026 Candidates
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $31,000 raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interviews with Gov. Cooper and NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $250,000 goal, $57k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer
Hopium House 7 (2026) - $250,000 goal, $193k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents
Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.
For more on Hopium’s approach to elections check out 1) the many important wins we had together last cycle 2) my big recommendations to the family coming out of the 2024 elections about what we need to do now 3) my latest thinking on where we are and the path forward for the Hopium community.
Take Action, Express Your Love Of Country Through Good Works - We are prioritizing two actions today. You can get our full list of recommended actions here. Let’s get to it:
1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Four-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our our emerging four part agenda. Demand that your reps work to
Roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, and alienating governments and people throughout the world
Block the expansion of ICE and the use of the military on our streets including DC
End Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; stop the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; demand the removal of extremist Robert Kennedy from HHS - yes we need to FIRE HIM
Stand with Ukraine and block Trump’s ongoing efforts to sell out the US
2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Be sure to check out our new discussion with Deborah Potter and Rachel Poliner who have passed resolutions in New Mexico and Boston, and offer advice on how to get a resolution passed in your own community.
Remarkably, members of this community are now advancing 75 (!!!!) resolutions projects in 23 states +DC. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?
Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!!
As we get ready for what is going to be a very intense fall of politics let’s take inspiration from those famous words from Robert Frost that “the best way out is always through.”
Means we just have to put our heads down and do the work everyone! - Simon
Keep working hard. - Simon
