Morning all. I have escaped Washington for a few days, visiting some friends to get a break from it all. So posts this week may be a bit shorter than usual but still expect them every day. Let’s get to it!
Germany Elects A New Government, The AfD Falls Short - It appears that Germany - like Europe, France and the UK last year - voted to keep fascists and the far right from power. We will learn more about the coalition that comes together under the new Chancellor Frederick Merz in the coming days but it is almost certain that it will not contain the new-Nazi AfD Party backed by Trump, Musk and Putin. The new Chancellor was very blunt last night in his assessment of what it means for Europe that Trump has now apparently aligned himself with Putin against Europe and Ukraine. Here is the Washington Post this morning quoting Merz (gift link):
“For me it is an absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that we achieve independence from the U.S., step by step,” he told public broadcaster ARD after the vote. “I never thought that I would ever need to say something like that, on television, but after the latest statements made by Donald Trump last week, it is clear, that the Americans — at any case these Americans, this administration — mostly don’t care about the fate of Europe one way or another.”
He also said the “intervention from Washington” — a reference to Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk expressing support for the far-right Alternative for Germany party before the vote — was “no less drastic, dramatic, and ultimately no less outrageous, than the intervention that we have seen from Moscow.”
And here is what I wrote on Bluesky last night about Trump’s “Russia First” attack on the America of the Four Freedoms:
As we discussed yesterday Trump had a bad week last week. Cracks are appearing in his Congressional support. Little cracks can become big cracks, little wins can become big wins and we need to keep working it everyone!
Leon Krauze On Lessons For Dems From Mexico - I sat down this morning with journalist Leon Krauze to discuss an essay he wrote for the Washington Post last week, Mexico has lessons for Democrats trying to oppose Trump (gift link).
Leon makes a powerful case that for Democrats to be successful we will have to be far more aggressive at challenging what he calls Trump’s control of the daily narrative. Opposition parties in Mexico failed to do this with former President Lopez-Obrador and his power grew, as did his disregard for democracy.
Please watch our conversation. Leon makes a very compelling case that Democrats must immediately up their game. His counsel is very consistent with the advice I’ve been offering here about how we must build a more effective and ferocious opposition to Trump. See my new essays (here, here) on this process of building the opposition and our critical role in leading the way; watch my new video that goes into greater detail, reminding us that
We are Americans. Fighting for freedom and democracy is what we do. Who we are.
Learn why I think it’s time for Congressional Dems to “let Facts be submitted to a candid world;” read my post that pulls together all my big recommendations for the pro-democracy family; and watch this compelling interview with my brilliant friend, Leon Krauze!
Here’s a link to my 2012 Letras Libres essay that Leon and I discuss warning about what I felt were worrisome signs the Republican Party was descending into something that felt far more reactionary than conservative. 13 years later I wish article was not so prescient.
The House Will Vote This Week On Their Medicaid-Gutting Budget Framework - Keep Making Your Calls Everyone! - As I wrote to you yesterday Job One today is contacting your House Reps and insist they vote and work against the Trump-House budget resolution this week. It is not clear that Speaker Johnson has the votes, and having this framework fail this week would be a big deal. Here is the current lead story on Politico, Republicans’ plans for Medicaid have a political problem:
House Republicans who represent large numbers of Medicaid recipients are pushing back on their leaders’ plans to slash billions in funding for the insurance program for low-income people.
That dissension could grow considering that President Donald Trump has made the GOP more appealing to the working class. Republicans rely on low-income voters more than they have in decades, with Trump the first Republican presidential candidate to win the poorest third of the electorate since the 1960s.
A POLITICO review of enrollment in Medicaid by congressional district found that 11 Republicans in competitive seats represent larger-than-average Medicaid populations — collectively nearly 2.7 million recipients. A vote to cut the program presents a politically sensitive decision that may come back to haunt them in 2026.
With a 218-215 House split — the tightest in modern history — Republicans will be fighting for every seat during the midterms to keep control of the chamber. And they can only lose one vote in the House and still pass their budget bill.
House Republican leaders plan to use Medicaid cuts to pay for tax relief, border security and energy production in the coming weeks.
“The bulk of these cuts would have to be in Medicaid, and that’s why they’re not going to get the requisite votes they need to get it passed with the margins that they have right now,” said Bill Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center and a former GOP Senate Budget Committee staffer. “Leaders are going to have a lot of difficulty getting the votes to pass this resolution.”
Nationally, about 24 percent of people in the United States are enrolled in Medicaid, according to an estimate compiled by NYU Langone Health. Just over 72 million people nationwide had Medicaid coverage as of October 2024, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
The Democratically aligned group Protect Our Care is targeting several Republicans in the most competitive districts with ads urging them to stop the cuts, including California’s David Valadao and Ken Calvert, New York’s Mike Lawler, Pennsylvania’s Robert Bresnahan and Washington’s Dan Newhouse.
It may be having an effect.
Valadao’s central California district is perennially in play — Valadao is in his sixth term but lost one in the middle — and more than 3 in 5 of his constituents, more than 470,000 people, rely on Medicaid, according to NYU Langone Health’s estimate.
He was among six Republican representatives and two territorial delegates who recently signed a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson warning that “slashing Medicaid would have serious consequences, particularly in rural and predominantly Hispanic communities.”
Also among the signers were Bresnahan and Juan Ciscomani, a second-term Republican from Arizona who represents Tucson suburbs and rural areas to the east. He won reelection by less than 3 percentage points. Nearly a quarter of his constituents rely on Medicaid.
Bresnahan, who represents a mix of suburban and rural communities in northeastern Pennsylvania, said in a statement earlier this month he would not vote for a bill “that guts the benefits my neighbors rely on.”
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