259 Comments
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Oct 19
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Please do not bring your worry, or the worry of others into this space. We leave worry and anxiety at Hopium's door. I am taking this post down and will answer your questions about the Senate tomorrow, but I do discuss it in my presentation this week.

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Understood, thank you. Know I'm still instinctively optimistic along with the vast majority of the community. I can be neurotic I know, but I'm not wavering anytime soon. Thanks again for everything Simon.

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Oct 19
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Thank you SO MUCH for your work. Currently working on letters but people like you are truly doing yeoman's duty! May the wind be at your back ! You truly are doing more & worrying less, keeping calm & campaigning on, and... NEVER LETTING THE BASTARDS WEAR YOU DOWN!

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thank you, thank you, a million thank you's.

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Oct 18
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Amazing 🤩 That’s a HUGE lift!!!!!!!!🇺🇸🇺🇸

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Thanks so much, Simon!!! Great postcarding last night!! Dropping off my 10 cards for Tony Vargas, mailed 200 cards for Wisconsin yesterday, and writing a bunch of extras for PA this weekend in addition to the 400 I’m waiting to mail…fired up, ready to go!!!!!!!!!!! 💙🇺🇸💙

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I don't know where you are mailing your postcards but if they are going to states with early voting I would mail them now. Look it up on iwillvote.com.

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Hey, Linda...I follow the dates that PCs to Swing States gives me. The range is Oct 26-28, depending on if you're near PA or far away. (I'm in NH.) These are GOTV, not early voting cards, as far as I know.

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YES THIS!! Always follow the direction the organizations gives. People should not decide to change dates just because of early voting ability. The campaigns are spacing out delivery

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Exactly. And some campaigns are targeting "low propensity" voters who will most likely vote on election day if they choose to do so at all. I don't second guess the mailing groups. This year I had the opportunity to help behind the scenes with one relatively small group and it takes a shocking amount of time and energy to manage all this and a lot of thought/planning goes into it.

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Always follow the directions of the coordinators. We are acting as a cogs in a complex machine so the effort only works if everyone does exactly as they are instructed with no improvisation or second-guessing.

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Yesterday was the first day of early voting in North Carolina, where I am volunteering. It looks like it was a record-breaking day with over 350,000 voters on Day 1. We need to keep the momentum rolling as we have a big weekend of canvassing planned here. If you have any ability to join us, particularly here in Charlotte (Mecklenburg County is a key county for the campaign this year), please sign up here at this link:

https://www.mobilize.us/ncdems/?address=Charlotte%2C%20NC%2C%20USA&date=2024-10-19T04%3A00%3A00.000Z&event_type=1&lat=35.2270869&lon=-80.8431267

We need all the help we can get to keep turning out our voters, so please consider taking a shift if you can! Keep up the good work everyone! Hard work is good work!

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I'm here to canvass!!! and excited to knock on doors today through sunday!

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Thank you so much!

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If you need any help with anything, please don't hesitate to let me know as well!

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Thanks so much! It has been amazing!!! Knocking on tons of doors by day and being sign fairy by night!

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According to the NC State Board of Elections, we set a record for early voting yesterday with 356,166 ballots cast, an increase of 1.3% over 2020. Dems made up 36.43% of the vote; Rs were at 33.37%; Unaffiliated, 29.76%. The rest were for other parties.

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Have to think that a lot of those unaffiliated will break for Harris.

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Yes, I think so, too. It's difficult to quantify, but there was a definite vibe to the crowd waiting to vote yesterday. A few obvious Trumpers, but we [hubs and I] both got the impression that it was a Kamala crowd.

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💃🏻💃🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Currently working on a new stack of postcards to GOTV in Arizona!

Have a great weekend everyone!!

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Simon. I want you to know how important your daily emails are to me and my friends. You’ve brought clarity and direction in the midst of all the angst of these final weeks. Thank you.

Perhaps of equal importance is you e kept us focused on doing the work. Making calls. Writing postcards. Donating as we are able. Your motto of Do More Worry Less or is it the other way around is perfect.

While we don’t need T shirts it would be cool. If you need someone to design one. Just ask. I’m sure there is a graphics person in the network

Keep it up

Jim

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Jim. And Simon. I am a graphic designer with decades of experience. I would be happy to volunteer to design our tee shirt.

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Request any t-shirt done have Tug added as our Hopium spirit animal bc he been an active part of all our community work! Needs Simon ok of course🙏🏻

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I like it!

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FLORIDA EARLY VOTE

Democrats are outperforming Republicans in 66 of 67 counties!

(As of evening, October 17):

@FlaDems +51,851 over @FloridaGOP

- DEM: 406,759 (42.4%)

- GOP: 355,097 (37.1%)

- OTHER: 196,571 20.5%)

Statewide turnout is D+5.3

https://nitter.poast.org/meyer0656/status/1847030517629440272#m

See county level data here:

https://freshtake.vote/2024G/index.php

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I’m not sure how slow other states or counties count VBM but please note that Escambia County in FL is very slow. I mailed my ballot 10/4 and called the Elections Office on 10/11 because it wasn’t marked as received. Currently both my ballot & my husband’s ballot are marked as received (but not yet counted). Next Monday starts FL early in person voting. I’ll call the elections office again on Monday. DMWL and leave no stone unturned. Keep tracking those votes and keep up the good work.

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was that a county efected by the hurricanes, mail pickup and county deliveries could be still afffected

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No. Escambia is District 1 (Matt Gaetz). It is right next to the AL border in the panhandle. Neither Hurricane Helene nor Hurricane Milton effected it. I’m trying to spur them on by calling. 1 hour after my first call, my ballot was documented as received. Haha. I’m that squeaky wheel that gets the oil. Back to my postcards!!!

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FL Miami Dade early voting starts Monday.

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AHHHHH florida has punched me in the face 16 18 and 20.

the one state i would love to flip but want that present on election night

this was going to be much longer but i remember this is hopium.

so fla friends vote volunteer and help out the victims and lets see what happens

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Dems have been rocked by the “other” vote last 2 presidential cycles. I hope this changes!!

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I cannot wait to see the final gender breakdown. What an irony to be taken down by WOMEN voting for a WOMAN. And then thrown in jail ... BY A WOMAN. It might make a great movie, but for the fact that it all seems unbelievable (and just a little bit funny?!?).

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👏🏻👊💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻💃🏻💃🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

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Brandon Meyer reports that Florida’s 1,000,00th vote was cast late this morning. Here is the party split so far:

Democrats: 425,971 (42.49%)

Republicans: 370,206 (36.93%)

Independents: 206,313 (20.58%)

https://nitter.poast.org/pic/orig/media%2FGaLuvomWkAA-ar-.png

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Any indication how the independents might break?

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In Florida? No idea. At some point, Tom Bonier’s "Modeled Party" on Florida may give us some insights.

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I am an ardent Democrat in TN, today I was pulled over at the grocery story by an Independent friend who told me she voted straight ticket D yesterday. She is one person in East Tn, but think this matters.

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I’m in Nashville so it’s pretty blue around me but that’s encouraging to hear from East TN. If we could get more people to vote, the maga/gop stranglehold on TN would loosen and we might actually have a decent state government.

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IN has early voting numbers quite a bit higher than would be expected in a normal cycle, since we are typically either dead last or close to it in voter turnout.

Simon, you said that after the election, you would address the issue of the multitude of dire warnings about running short of money that we are all receiving from our candidates. Please add to your concern that the very tone of some of these texts and emails is unpleasant and could very well turn off a recipient.

Thank you for all that you do. The postcarding session last night was great.

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Oct 18
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Ah yes, the old churn n' burn tactic

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I got this too. Simon threatening to toss people out of the chat for redwaving, and we're getting it from the official mouthpieces of the campaign. I felt poleaxed to read it.

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It is definitely something that needs to be addressed in the campaign review. The fundraising emails and texts are weakening the message and turnout efforts

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Oct 18
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Some of those texts/emails are phishing schemes. Good for you for not falling for it! Donate early and often if you can through trusted sites!

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As a Hoosier myself, I'm really hoping Indiana's voter enthusiasm will help Jennifer McCormick win the governor's race and maybe even help Destiny Wells to oust Rokita. I never pay attention to political texts, usually just block them, but I have been pleasantly surprised that the emails I get from our Indiana candidates have been positive in their messages. But yes, I totally agree that the negative messages (in my experience coming from the national Harris/Walz emails) is very offputing and de-motivating. Campaigns need to stop trying to scare Democratic voters. It's been such a negative aspect of being in liberal circles. In contrast, I really enjoy the can-do attitude of the Hopium community, so thanks to Simon for creating this safe space.

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I am new to this kind of formatting so I'm not sure if my reply reached you. In case it didn't, here it is: I have worked the polls for the Democrats for many years. I live in Carmel, which is in Hamilton County. It is very worrisome to me that so many of the people who come to do early voting at my satellite location are low information voters. Let's hope you and I can smile on November 6. By the way, I have donated to both Jennifer and destiny and gone to my fundraisers for both of them. it is terrifying to know that their opponents are mega and white Christian nationalists.

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I live in Carmel, too! And thanks so much for working the polls. It's hard to predict how things will turn out, but I have read in a couple places that Hamilton County is somewhat of a bellwether county for the country, so we'll see how things turn out on election night. I'm hoping news is continuing to circulate widely about all the extremist comments Braun and Beckwith have made. I wish we didn't have straight-ticket voting buttons because now more than ever, people need to be encouraged to think about each person on the ballot.

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Plus our extremist AG. Liked among Republicans here are about as much as Cruz is adored in Texas. I agree with you about straight ticket voting. I cannot tell you how many times the only question I'm asked when I bring a voter to the machine is "how do I vote straight Republican? " I haven't heard that Hamilton County is any kind of Bellweather. I think only two precincts went blue for Biden and thank you for all the work that you do to try to make this country a better place.

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I agree - when you see an email from eh campaign that says we are losing and not getting donations (when we know that is false, especially the record breaking donations) it does impact how you feel. Makes you question "Where the heck is all that billion going"? I do love the vibe here and it makes it easier to ignore the crap

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Yes, here is "my therapy". I read it before going to bed at night so I can sleep.

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I agree, Marcia! I’m avidly in this but now delete all those screaming emails and only donate through Hopium and to specific local candidates or national ones i have personal ties with. Too much noise makes people deaf.

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It's overdone. I do not like TEXT messages, as those are people contacting me about an appt in less than 24 hrs.

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I would like to hear about this too. I've recently seen late night comedians and SNL making jokes about the incessant pleas for money. It's especially odd because there are simultaneous news reports that the Harris team has collected $1B. I know it's expensive as hell but if we notice, then the average voter surely doesn't understand this. It's also an opportunity to introduce Dems efforts to pass campaign finance reform and the GOP's slavish legislative loyalty to their wealthy patrons. Use it as another campaign issue!

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I have received these dire solicitations of doom from the DNC also.

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We can discuss this after the election. I do not believe this is a good strategy but we just need to put our heads down and keep working.

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Yes, I agree. I've donated a LOT of money and it only seems to get worse and the direness of it makes me feel like maybe my donations were a waste of time and discourage me from donating more.

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PENNSYLVANIA EARLY VOTE

📥 791,804 votes cast

– 🔵 DEM: 506,320 - 48.4% returned

– 🔴 GOP: 212,015 - 40.4% returned

– 🟡 IND: 73,469 - 34.1% returned

VBM Splits: 🔵 63.9% / 🔴 26.8% / 🟡 9.3%

🔷 DEM firewall: +294,305

📈 Return Edge: D+8

https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq

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That’s an increase in the Democratic "Firewall" of about 23,000 since yesterday. Slowing down since we saw 30k per day, but still strong!

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nearing 50% before the weekend is good, it looked like PA didnt update during last weekend.,i think is normal correct?

win everyday

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"A few of the big counties have a little over half their requests in but still a lot of room to grow plus more satellite drop-off locations open for the weekend tomorrow. The medium-sized counties … continue to lag behind: Erie & Westmoreland are finally starting to report in bulk but Luzerne is still way, way, WAY behind. Those three counties combined are D+32k request advantage."

– Stephen Mikalik

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Sorry, but what does "the medium sized counties ... continue to lag behind"? What is lagging? The vote or the reporting? Thank you

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Could be a combination of returns and reporting. But it seems to me Mikalik is saying some counties are slow to report.

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What is a firewall?

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A New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found Harris winning 12% of Republicans in Pennsylvania.

https://nitter.poast.org/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1847108612839076264#m

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Can't open it. I'd like to see that hold.

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Thanks. Yesterday FT 6 sent texts to unregistered Pennsylvanians. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/

DNC Anytime Training signup link (call on your schedule!) Share the link with your own message in an email or text: https://events.democrats.org/event/551644/

To share on any platform, just click on the link and share from there!

Facebook

https://www.facebook.com/reel/8700220780030813

BlueSky

https://bsky.app/profile/call-crew-dems.bsky.social/post/3l6i7ek7ar422

TikTok

https://www.tiktok.com/@call_crew_dems/video/7425650523291897134?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc&web_id=7424214167135847966

Instagram

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBG_lriP8g0/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Threads

https://www.threads.net/@call.crew.dems/post/DBG_rxuPmXf?xmt=AQGzH2vwgsu0KMyELxy40VA_BGr_rfvPhmMhy7wZvrz0aQ

YouTube

https://youtube.com/shorts/md3j9XPeOeA?feature=shared

We have the capacity to flip Trump 2020 voters. . https://rvat.org/

Place comments on social media...."Not suckers or losers" to vets groups, military, military dependents, history sites. Vote vets has thousands of testimonials of 2020 Trump voters that flipped. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans or active duty members on Facebook, and 12.5 million family members of veterans or active duty members on Facebook.

Trump hates dogs. Pet/animal charity sites.

Trump stole from kids with cancer.

Don't slit your own throat.

In your gut you know he's nuts.

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More than their estimate of 9% nationally?! That's great news!

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If this is true, PA goes D ! And if it's true nationally, Kamala wins in a landslide.

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Nice. 👏😎

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Please remember that even in the frigid cold Iowa Republican caucus that 20% of the vote was against Trump and that trend held up even when he had the nomination clinched! These Republicans will either stay home or vote for Harris! It appears that 12% are voting for Harris and I suspect the number will be higher!!!

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No telling if GOP votes for K.

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GEORGIA EARLY VOTE:

In-Person:

– 312,260 on Tuesday

– 276,667 on Wednesday

– 255,329 yesterday

Mail Ballots ("Absentee")

– 50,140 accepted (of 50,510 returned)

– 284,519 requested

TOTAL EARLY VOTE:

– 902,517

– 12.6% of registered Georgians have already voted.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout

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Today, as of 10:30am, an additional 56,882 Georgians have voted Early in-person.

UPDATE 1:30pm: 152,030 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

UPDATE 2:30pm: 184,181 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

UPDATE 3:30pm: 216,184 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

UPDATE 4:30pm: 247,407 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

UPDATE 5:30pm: 270,424 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

UPDATE 6:30pm: 279,496 more Georgians have voted in-person today.

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Just a thought:

Both GA and FL have witnessed first-hand ⚖️ legal manipulations of election results in GA and repub judge defying justice (and our country) by throwing out the documents case just in time for the election.

What I am trying to say is, when combined with the issue of "womens freedom" may make those more vulnerable than ever.

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Not following your train of thought here - are you saying the legal manipulations and post-Dobbs environment make these 2 states vulnerable to Dem wins?

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Yes. I wonder if the citizens of the states are angry about what they tried to do.

For example, in GA, trmp tried to throw out citizens' votes to enable 🍊to win ('find me some votes').

If I saw someone manipulate a court case, I would be concerned about abuse of power.

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NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTE

Yesterday, a total of 353,036 people cast Early In-Person Votes yesterday. So far, 75,134 Mail Ballots have been returned.

Party split: 36.4% Democrats, 33.4% Republicans, 30.2% Independents

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/

"NC in-person early voting started yesterday and we're getting first statistics this morning. Typically ~90% of NC's early vote is in-person. The party reg appears to be where we might expect if NC is to be competitive with a slight reg Dem lead."

– Michael McDonald

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Bless you for gathering and posting for us all this voting data!!! I so appreciate your generosity, smarts and hard work. It fires my engine!!

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Same here - thank you!

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Now thats what you call a purple state!

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great and helpful info - thank you - please keep it up if you can!

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A bit of anecdotal info on this. I did a text bank with Voteriders to NC last night. I had quite a few responses that the recipient had already voted. I'm not sure how Voteriders compiles its list, but these are supposed to learn toward people who are likely to be disenfranchised by voter id laws - such as people without current drivers licenses.

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You ask how can trump handle being president again if he can't handle campaigning? It doesn't matter; if he wins (and please it shouldn't happen!) the plan is to put JD in as president. That is one of my big fears.

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Very "Manchurian Candidate." Not sure it's worth putting any energy into thinking about, though. I know...nobody likes a scold. BUT, we do more and worry less here. These posts about "fears" and being "terrified" are just like having cold coffee poured on my head. Ick.

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Way to bring the metaphor

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I can’t begin to tell you how much I appreciate the data you provide! As soon as Hopium’s post appears I read through it quickly, always relishing his take on the status of the race, but then jump to comments and look for you! Please keep it up—it means a lot to me! Thank you!!

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Evanston Dems have buses going on overnight trips to PA, MI, and WI. They left today. I was able to get six more people to get on the bus. In Detroit early voting begins tomorrow, Saturday October 19. The rest of Michigan begins Early Voting on October 26. Tomorrow is forecast to be a very nice day in Detroit, like Indian Summer. I hope to see long lines. The event in Washington Crossing, PA was so moving. I was in tears at one point. My postcard parties here are a great success.

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I just gave to the Nebraska blue dot. My husband is a voting rights litigator who is literally working around the clock, working through the night every night and barely sleeping. I honestly don't know how he is still standing. Please know that people are fighting fiercely, giving every ounce of their strength and more to preserve our democracy. I hope that will inspire some folks to go the extra mile this weekend! Most of my energy is going toward caring for our kids and taking care of everything else so that he is able to do this. I have also been urging every Dem I know to vote early, and recruiting some friends to canvass in swing districts, and donating as prompted by Simon. If everyone works to their full capacity from now through Election Day, we will have the election we want, as Simon says. Let's go!

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That's amazing! I'm so grateful for all of the lawyers fighting on behalf of democracy and their families who support them in their hard work.

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Speaking of the BLUE DOT...

"After a slow start, registered Democrats in NE-2 are returning mail ballots at a faster rate than Republicans."

Mail ballot return rate

🔵 47.9%

🔴 47.1%

https://nitter.poast.org/ElectProject/status/1847267697702449391#m

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I gave too! Please join us!

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And me! Go NE BLUE DOT!

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Cannot begin to tell you how incredibly inspiring this is. Your husband is amazing and I will be saying a few prayers for him this evening

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RS,

Talk about “Doing more” to save our Democracy🇺🇸🇺🇸

I am sending my deepest respect and gratitude 🙏🏻 to your husband for the work he is doing and you for supporting him to do so. He is one of our front line patriot warriors🙌🏻🙌🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

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