As I wrote earlier, all of this makes the GOP core narrative that Biden sucks/economy is terrible LOL ridiculous, as Gavin Newsom showed Hannity the other night.
As you have said, how we sound is important. Speak in declarative sentences! Joe Biden is a skillful president! When young people 18 to 45 and are registered, their percentage of turnout in elections is similar to voters 60 and older! Presently there are approx. 3.2 jobs for every applicant!
a lot of fascinating things to work on and digest today, but the biggie for me: The Federal Reserve is no longer softly projecting a recession in its big group forecast. despite hinting at a willingness to hike rates higher, it is now, in essence, projecting a soft landing.
The main quibble I have is with the expression "good President". "Good" seems lukewarm to me. How about something like "excellent" or "outstanding"? I'd argue that Biden deserves this rating because he has squeezed about as much out of a closely divided Congress as possible. Remember that at the beginning of Biden's term Democrats controlled the Senate only by a hair and there were two Democrats (Manchin and Sinema) whose votes could not be counted on. Nevertheless, Biden shepherded through two major bills: the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act. He also did the CHIPs Act and a gun control bill on a bipartisan basis, and successfully appointed a progressive Supreme Court justice. By contrast, Obama had a 60-40 majority in 2009 and failed to take advantage of the opportunity to act quickly before Democratic control eroded. And the recent debt ceiling deal was about as good as Democrats could get, anticipating the need to get the budget through later this year and avoiding a possible government shutdown over that, not to mention avoiding debt default. The major minus for Biden was the withdrawal from Afghanistan, but this was going to be pretty bad one way or another. With hindsight it could have been done better, but I think Biden gets good marks for sticking to the decision to withdraw and not waffling on it. So overall my grade would be an A, although not an A+. Yes, there are a few things I wish Biden would do, like declare a no first use policy, but not everyone agrees on that. I also wish his military budget were lower. No President is going to satisfy everyone's wish list tho, and it is not even clear that Congress would spend less on the military if Biden proposed it. If you consider how entrenched Republican opposition is and how small the margin in the Senate, Biden's legislative record is extraordinary. The problem is that people outside of Washington without a college degree have trouble understanding this. How to communicate with them?
Great thoughts Victor! Here are some of mine that your comment spawned......
I think the (though don't quote me) the reason Simon is using the phrase "Good President" is because there is sort of a cynical baseline set point among the American People about politics in general lately.....which I might add is a project the right wing has been forwarding since Reagan and his, "Government can't solve the problem, Government IS the problem" message.....they have gradually been trying to weaken the public's view and approval of the government in general, and our institutions at large, because they are the anti-government party and therefore when there is a bias against the government in public sentiment in general, it becomes a structural advantage to them winning power. If we try to promote "Joe Biden is a GREAT President", it's too far of a leap from where people are because of that cynical frame they are starting from. Whereas, "Joe Biden is a good president" is not so far away from where they are that they can at least consider it, and then we can support it with data.
That's my feeling and interpretation because I certainly have the same thoughts that Joe Biden has performed well beyond the characterization of "good"....but we have to navigate the dynamics of the moment we're in and even a lot of Democrats and structurally Democratic voters have fallen prey to the Right Wing's efforts to disillusion people and make them feel bad about their government and country. It's our constant uphill battle....to keep our own tent optimistic about what we can do next while celebrating what we have accomplished so far.
As far as how to message on the legislation....I personally think it's too inside baseball.....we should message on the BENEFITS of the legislation and add, "Joe Biden and the Democrats got that done for you!" to them.....but I think it's too heavy of a lift to try to promote a message more granular than the real benefits in their real lives. So for example, they don't care that an infrastructure bill was passed....they care that the freeway going through downtown is being widened by a lane and getting resurfaced so that it's not so damn bumpy and uncomfortable to commute on. They don't care that we got the chips and science act through a 50/50 senate....they care that 3000 people are being hired in their backyard to build a new factory because of the investment, and that 2000 more will work there when it's finished making over $100,000 per year, most without the need for a college degree. And they care that by doing this, we'll be more resilient against the shortages in goods that we faced during the pandemic because more of the supply chain is controlled at home.
Although I pushed back on the term "good", ultimately this is above my pay grade. :-) My comments are there and other folks can decide what language to use. I am not an expert on political messaging.
Good question. I agree that we should be loudly applauding both Biden and his Administration for making government work amidst the chronic chaos and negativity of Republicans and MAGA specifically. And Biden does this with both humor and grace. It’s such a relief.
In today's Times, David Leonhardt, commenting on a YouGov poll, writes:
"Many effective messages [in the poll] involved jobs, including both moderate policies (like tax credits for training at small businesses) and progressive ones (like a federal jobs guarantee)."
I strongly recommend Democrats adopt a federal jobs guarantee ("FJG") as a central economic proposal. Proponents of an FJG, including Bard economist Pavlina Tcherneva, describe it as:
“A job at a living wage to all who are ready and willing to work. This is a “job guarantee” program that provides employment to all who need work by drawing from the pool of the otherwise unemployed during recessions and shrinking as private sector employment recovers. Federally funded but with a decentralized administration, the PSE program would pay $15 per hour* for both full- and part-time positions and offer benefits that include health insurance and childcare. In addition to guaranteeing access to work on projects that serve a public purpose, the PSE program establishes effective minimum standards for wages and benefits.”
There are deep roots for the FJG, from FDR’s New Deal programs, to a JG proposed by Martin Luther King, and a never implemented provision of the Humphrey-Hawkins bill.
The FJG:
Defeats the glib right wing “free stuff” meme.
Undercuts destructive and bogus “work requirements” for Medicaid, etc.
Fills unmet societal needs.
Is not means tested.
Provides another source of financial security in uncertain times.
Is an “automatic stabilizer” to prevent recessions
Great stats, and thanks for the good news, but (sorry I seem to be the BUT guy here) it would be nice to have more positive data on the distribution problem, also known as the income gap and the wealth gap. Good numbers on job satisfaction, job growth, GDP could indicate narrowing the wealth gap (a more intractable problem than the income gap), but they are not necessarily the same thing. To whom, to what strata, are the greatest benefits going? What is happening to the lowest 20% of people, the ones most in need of a greater share of the wealth? I'm sure things are improving there, but it would be nice to have a metric to support it more directly.
Mark, I will marshall some of that in the coming days. One comment - what you've written here isn't a but, it's an and. All of this is true, and this other stuff is true. We have to stop using but because it diminishes what comes before, and there is no reason to do that. We know that the bottom 25% have seen the biggest gains in this economy. But's its time for an update on that data. We have to get out of the but mindset and replace it with an and mindset.
As Eleanor Roosevelt once said to Allard Lowenstein:”We’ll, Allard,”she said, summing up five decades of political wisdom, “you must remember you can’t flush all the toilets.” (Eleanor, David Michaelis)But neither he nor she stopped trying 😊
Your optimism is echoed by JV Last of the Bulwark in today’s Triad. He adds some graphs on wages growing faster than inflation. Every single day, the Democrats must tout these economic wins. I know that it may be hard to rise above the good news of Trump’s first federal indictment, but these amazing economic accomplishments must be shared widely. Trump was out there every day saying how great everything was (even when it wasn’t). Biden is a humble man, so it’s up to the rest of the party to sing his praises!
Friends, I want to encourage all of you to keep sharing things which you think will be helpful in bolstering and strengthening our emerging narrative. Several folks sent links today to stuff which I can use. I am always in the market for good, powerful charts and graphs in particular. One of the reasons I really enjoy substack is that it is very visual, and really allows images/charts/graphs to be a powerful part of our storytelling, together.
So excited that Simon Rosenberg will be speaking at a Zoom event in my county in NY on June 26th. I have to take a little credit for this as I have bombarded my local County Democratic Committee with his presentations since I discovered him in Summer 2022. I was rewarded when all the Town and County newsletters (which I create for my own town) heavily encouraged early voting with a strong Democratic message. I didn’t organize this event, but I will be smiling on June 26th. Thank you Simon for showing us the way. ❤️ 🎉🤩🌈
Great news presented very well, Simon. Thanks so much for bolstering our spirits!
“Stick with the president and I promise you, I PROMISE you.....you will feel it...you will feel it!”
----Bill Clinton, 2012 DNC Convention
👆
A message you could set your watch to every time we elect a Democratic President.....especially in the wake of having lived through an R.
Adjusted for inflation, average hourly earnings growth now in positive year/year territory for first time since March 2021
link please!
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1668939291626536963?t=G_iXeExGsq7fOp9dXQ7ZLA&s=19
As I wrote earlier, all of this makes the GOP core narrative that Biden sucks/economy is terrible LOL ridiculous, as Gavin Newsom showed Hannity the other night.
Keep doing what you are doing being an information warrior. Very much appreciate the platform you are building
As you have said, how we sound is important. Speak in declarative sentences! Joe Biden is a skillful president! When young people 18 to 45 and are registered, their percentage of turnout in elections is similar to voters 60 and older! Presently there are approx. 3.2 jobs for every applicant!
a lot of fascinating things to work on and digest today, but the biggie for me: The Federal Reserve is no longer softly projecting a recession in its big group forecast. despite hinting at a willingness to hike rates higher, it is now, in essence, projecting a soft landing.
The economic news over the last few weeks has been remarkably good.
https://imgur.com/a/ag0Pgw9
SinceI can't figure out how to post a chart here is from the Fed notes today showing they are projecting a soft landing
The main quibble I have is with the expression "good President". "Good" seems lukewarm to me. How about something like "excellent" or "outstanding"? I'd argue that Biden deserves this rating because he has squeezed about as much out of a closely divided Congress as possible. Remember that at the beginning of Biden's term Democrats controlled the Senate only by a hair and there were two Democrats (Manchin and Sinema) whose votes could not be counted on. Nevertheless, Biden shepherded through two major bills: the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act. He also did the CHIPs Act and a gun control bill on a bipartisan basis, and successfully appointed a progressive Supreme Court justice. By contrast, Obama had a 60-40 majority in 2009 and failed to take advantage of the opportunity to act quickly before Democratic control eroded. And the recent debt ceiling deal was about as good as Democrats could get, anticipating the need to get the budget through later this year and avoiding a possible government shutdown over that, not to mention avoiding debt default. The major minus for Biden was the withdrawal from Afghanistan, but this was going to be pretty bad one way or another. With hindsight it could have been done better, but I think Biden gets good marks for sticking to the decision to withdraw and not waffling on it. So overall my grade would be an A, although not an A+. Yes, there are a few things I wish Biden would do, like declare a no first use policy, but not everyone agrees on that. I also wish his military budget were lower. No President is going to satisfy everyone's wish list tho, and it is not even clear that Congress would spend less on the military if Biden proposed it. If you consider how entrenched Republican opposition is and how small the margin in the Senate, Biden's legislative record is extraordinary. The problem is that people outside of Washington without a college degree have trouble understanding this. How to communicate with them?
Great thoughts Victor! Here are some of mine that your comment spawned......
I think the (though don't quote me) the reason Simon is using the phrase "Good President" is because there is sort of a cynical baseline set point among the American People about politics in general lately.....which I might add is a project the right wing has been forwarding since Reagan and his, "Government can't solve the problem, Government IS the problem" message.....they have gradually been trying to weaken the public's view and approval of the government in general, and our institutions at large, because they are the anti-government party and therefore when there is a bias against the government in public sentiment in general, it becomes a structural advantage to them winning power. If we try to promote "Joe Biden is a GREAT President", it's too far of a leap from where people are because of that cynical frame they are starting from. Whereas, "Joe Biden is a good president" is not so far away from where they are that they can at least consider it, and then we can support it with data.
That's my feeling and interpretation because I certainly have the same thoughts that Joe Biden has performed well beyond the characterization of "good"....but we have to navigate the dynamics of the moment we're in and even a lot of Democrats and structurally Democratic voters have fallen prey to the Right Wing's efforts to disillusion people and make them feel bad about their government and country. It's our constant uphill battle....to keep our own tent optimistic about what we can do next while celebrating what we have accomplished so far.
As far as how to message on the legislation....I personally think it's too inside baseball.....we should message on the BENEFITS of the legislation and add, "Joe Biden and the Democrats got that done for you!" to them.....but I think it's too heavy of a lift to try to promote a message more granular than the real benefits in their real lives. So for example, they don't care that an infrastructure bill was passed....they care that the freeway going through downtown is being widened by a lane and getting resurfaced so that it's not so damn bumpy and uncomfortable to commute on. They don't care that we got the chips and science act through a 50/50 senate....they care that 3000 people are being hired in their backyard to build a new factory because of the investment, and that 2000 more will work there when it's finished making over $100,000 per year, most without the need for a college degree. And they care that by doing this, we'll be more resilient against the shortages in goods that we faced during the pandemic because more of the supply chain is controlled at home.
Those are my thoughts....I'd love to hear yours!
Although I pushed back on the term "good", ultimately this is above my pay grade. :-) My comments are there and other folks can decide what language to use. I am not an expert on political messaging.
Hey man, I love your thoughts.....discussions like this are how the good messaging points worth focus testing get discovered 😎👍
Good question. I agree that we should be loudly applauding both Biden and his Administration for making government work amidst the chronic chaos and negativity of Republicans and MAGA specifically. And Biden does this with both humor and grace. It’s such a relief.
In today's Times, David Leonhardt, commenting on a YouGov poll, writes:
"Many effective messages [in the poll] involved jobs, including both moderate policies (like tax credits for training at small businesses) and progressive ones (like a federal jobs guarantee)."
I strongly recommend Democrats adopt a federal jobs guarantee ("FJG") as a central economic proposal. Proponents of an FJG, including Bard economist Pavlina Tcherneva, describe it as:
“A job at a living wage to all who are ready and willing to work. This is a “job guarantee” program that provides employment to all who need work by drawing from the pool of the otherwise unemployed during recessions and shrinking as private sector employment recovers. Federally funded but with a decentralized administration, the PSE program would pay $15 per hour* for both full- and part-time positions and offer benefits that include health insurance and childcare. In addition to guaranteeing access to work on projects that serve a public purpose, the PSE program establishes effective minimum standards for wages and benefits.”
[*written in 2018; likely higher by now]
Here are Pavlina’s FAQ re an FJG:
https://pavlina-tcherneva.net/job-guarantee-faq/
I have written several stories at Daily Kos on this, including:
What policy has the support of 71% of REpublicans, 87% of Democrats, and 81% of independents?
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/7/1898491/-What-Policy-has-the-support-of-71-of-Republicans-87-of-Democrats-and-81-of-Independents
All of a sudden, the job guarantee is everywhere:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/25/1738751/-All-of-a-Sudden-the-Job-Guarantee-is-Everywhere
There are deep roots for the FJG, from FDR’s New Deal programs, to a JG proposed by Martin Luther King, and a never implemented provision of the Humphrey-Hawkins bill.
The FJG:
Defeats the glib right wing “free stuff” meme.
Undercuts destructive and bogus “work requirements” for Medicaid, etc.
Fills unmet societal needs.
Is not means tested.
Provides another source of financial security in uncertain times.
Is an “automatic stabilizer” to prevent recessions
Is an alternate way to implement a minimum wage
Great stats, and thanks for the good news, but (sorry I seem to be the BUT guy here) it would be nice to have more positive data on the distribution problem, also known as the income gap and the wealth gap. Good numbers on job satisfaction, job growth, GDP could indicate narrowing the wealth gap (a more intractable problem than the income gap), but they are not necessarily the same thing. To whom, to what strata, are the greatest benefits going? What is happening to the lowest 20% of people, the ones most in need of a greater share of the wealth? I'm sure things are improving there, but it would be nice to have a metric to support it more directly.
Mark, I will marshall some of that in the coming days. One comment - what you've written here isn't a but, it's an and. All of this is true, and this other stuff is true. We have to stop using but because it diminishes what comes before, and there is no reason to do that. We know that the bottom 25% have seen the biggest gains in this economy. But's its time for an update on that data. We have to get out of the but mindset and replace it with an and mindset.
My favorite paradigm: both/and (instead of either/or).
As Eleanor Roosevelt once said to Allard Lowenstein:”We’ll, Allard,”she said, summing up five decades of political wisdom, “you must remember you can’t flush all the toilets.” (Eleanor, David Michaelis)But neither he nor she stopped trying 😊
Hope springs eternal.
Your optimism is echoed by JV Last of the Bulwark in today’s Triad. He adds some graphs on wages growing faster than inflation. Every single day, the Democrats must tout these economic wins. I know that it may be hard to rise above the good news of Trump’s first federal indictment, but these amazing economic accomplishments must be shared widely. Trump was out there every day saying how great everything was (even when it wasn’t). Biden is a humble man, so it’s up to the rest of the party to sing his praises!
Good call!
Simon -
Thanks and sorry -- good advice across the board: you're absolutely right about but and and. I learned pessimism and "but" at my father's knee.
Here at Hopium unlearning that default pessimism is one of most important collective jobs. It's something we all need to work on, myself included.
Friends, I want to encourage all of you to keep sharing things which you think will be helpful in bolstering and strengthening our emerging narrative. Several folks sent links today to stuff which I can use. I am always in the market for good, powerful charts and graphs in particular. One of the reasons I really enjoy substack is that it is very visual, and really allows images/charts/graphs to be a powerful part of our storytelling, together.
So excited that Simon Rosenberg will be speaking at a Zoom event in my county in NY on June 26th. I have to take a little credit for this as I have bombarded my local County Democratic Committee with his presentations since I discovered him in Summer 2022. I was rewarded when all the Town and County newsletters (which I create for my own town) heavily encouraged early voting with a strong Democratic message. I didn’t organize this event, but I will be smiling on June 26th. Thank you Simon for showing us the way. ❤️ 🎉🤩🌈
https://open.substack.com/pub/itsmissdenise/p/the-trials-and-tribulations-of-a?r=9r2k3&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Would love to see simplification of a couple of chart titles.
Example: 3rd chart title could be:
Democrats Shrink the Deficit. Republicans Grow the Deficit. (Could also say Republicans Add to it or Republicans Grow It)
Title of 6th Chart also needs to be simplified but I’m not the right person to do it.